Unified vision eludes energy corridor panel

By Bangor Daily News


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Tensions between Maine and Canada over proposed LNG facilities in Passamaquoddy Bay once again have spilled over into efforts to develop regulations for potentially lucrative lease agreements between the state and energy companies.

A 13-member commission reached agreement on most major issues surrounding so-called “energy corridors” but deadlocked over whether to extend a moratorium on such projects in response to Canadian opposition to LNG tankers in the bay.

As a result, the LegislatureÂ’s Utilities and Energy Committee will receive three competing reports from the commission as lawmakers begin next month debating an energy corridors bill.

“I think we missed an opportunity to be assertive and show leadership and give some solid direction to the Utilities and Energy Committee,” said Sen. Barry Hobbins, D-Saco, a co-chairman of both the committee and the energy corridors task force.

Earlier this year, the Legislature created the commission to craft guidelines to ensure that Maine reaps the maximum benefits from the massive energy infrastructure projects along highway rights of way or through other state-owned land.

Such corridors have been viewed as a potential win-win for the state and energy companies.

Maine could collect tens of millions of dollars in lease payments for energy initiatives while encouraging development of additional renewable energy projects in the state.

Energy companies, meanwhile, would have to negotiate fewer obstacles to constructing electricity transmission lines or energy pipelines from Canada to southern New England.

But ever since the spring, discussion of the energy corridors has been dogged by tensions over the Canadian governmentÂ’s firm opposition to allowing liquefied natural gas tankers to transit Passamaquoddy Bay en route to proposed terminals near Calais.

Commission members’ resolve to protect Maine’s energy interests rose even higher after Hydro-Quebec — Canada’s largest electricity producer — announced plans to acquire New Brunswick Power in order to gain access to U.S. markets.

New Brunswick Power already has transmission lines passing through Maine to southern New England and midAtlantic states and is likely to build more if the acquisition is approved. That prospect has raised concerns that Hydro-Quebec could stymie or squash demand for renewable energy from future wind farms or other projects in Maine.

Keith Van Scotter, co-owner of Lincoln Pulp and Tissue, was among the commission members who supports extending the moratorium on energy corridors as a way to pressure Canadian officials to change their stance on LNG in Passamaquoddy Bay.

New Brunswick officials maintain it would be unsafe for the massive LNG tankers to attempt to navigate the narrow passage, with its powerful tides and numerous hazards, in order to reach the proposed sites in Calais or Robbinston.

But Van Scotter and other supporters allege that provincial officials are merely trying to protect a newly opened LNG facility in St. John that is partly owned by New Brunswick-based Irving Oil.

If Canadian companies want to put an “electricity super-highway” through Maine, they should not stand in the way of an energy project important to Maine, Van Scotter said.

“You don’t try to negotiate when you have already conceded some of the things that are important to folks on the other side,” said Van Scotter, who believes a Maine LNG terminal would help lower electricity rates.

But Hobbins questioned the linkage between the issues. He also pointed out that the existing moratorium has been in place for more than six months and Canadian officials have not backed away from their opposition based on safety grounds. On the other hand, too long a delay could cause Canadian energy companies to lose interest in Maine.

“What we are doing is forcing Hydro-Quebec to go through New Hampshire and bypass Maine, and we will lose all of that potential development” and revenue from leases, Hobbins said.

Officials from Irving Oil, which has expressed strong interest in a potential energy corridor lease arrangement, are watching events in Maine closely.

“The only certainty that seems to have come out of (the) decision is that there is still a lot of uncertainty,” said Daniel Goodwin, a spokesman for Fort Reliance, the parent company of Irving Oil. “We are not sure what it means or how it will unfold in the coming weeks and months in the Legislature.”

But Goodwin said Fort Reliance remains interested in working with the state.

David Farmer, spokesman for Gov. John Baldacci, said the governor remains adamant in his conversations with New Brunswick officials that Canada should not stand in the way of LNG projects in Passamaquoddy Bay. But Baldacci believes pursuing energy corridors is also critically important to the state.

“Obviously, we would have preferred to have a consensus or at least a majority report” from the commission, Farmer said. “But we have full confidence, as it heads to the Utilities Committee, that we can find a good resolution.”

All of the reports contain language that would require state regulators to deny any corridor project that does not enhance opportunities for energy generation within the state and significantly reduce electricity rates and energy costs for Maine ratepayers. That language was suggested by Senator Peter Mills, R-Cornville.

Mills opposed the moratorium as well as the non-moratorium reports. Instead, he is submitting his own report stating that that any projects “will not impede” development of new energy sources, “including a liquefied natural gas facility on the Maine coast.”

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India's Solar Growth Slows with Surge in Coal Generation

India Solar Slowdown and Coal Surge highlights policy uncertainty, grid stability concerns, financing gaps, and land acquisition issues affecting renewable energy, emissions targets, energy security, storage deployment, and tendering delays across the solar value chain.

 

Key Points

Analysis of slowed solar growth and rising coal in India, examining policy, grid, finance, and emissions tradeoffs.

✅ Policy uncertainty and tender delays stall solar pipelines

✅ Grid bottlenecks, storage gaps, and curtailment risks persist

✅ Financing strains and DISCOM payment delays dampen investment

 

India, a global leader in renewable energy adoption where renewables surpassed coal in capacity recently, faces a pivotal moment as the growth of solar power output decelerates while coal generation sees an unexpected surge. This article examines the factors contributing to this shift, its implications for India's energy transition, and the challenges and opportunities it presents.

India's Renewable Energy Ambitions

India has set ambitious targets to expand its renewable energy capacity, including a goal to achieve 175 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy by 2022, with a significant portion from solar power. Solar energy has been a focal point of India's renewable energy strategy, as documented in on-grid solar development studies, driven by falling costs, technological advancements, and environmental imperatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Factors Contributing to Slowdown in Solar Power Growth

Despite initial momentum, India's solar power growth has encountered several challenges that have contributed to a slowdown. These include policy uncertainties, regulatory hurdles, land acquisition issues, and financial constraints affecting project development and implementation, even as China's solar PV growth surged in recent years. Delays in tendering processes, grid connectivity issues, and payment delays from utilities have also hindered the expansion of solar capacity.

Surge in Coal Generation

Concurrently, India has witnessed an unexpected increase in coal generation in recent years. Coal continues to dominate India's energy mix, accounting for a significant portion of electricity generation due to its reliability, affordability, and existing infrastructure, even as wind and solar surpassed coal in the U.S. in recent periods. The surge in coal generation reflects the challenges in scaling up renewable energy quickly enough to meet growing energy demand and address grid stability concerns.

Implications for India's Energy Transition

The slowdown in solar power growth and the rise in coal generation pose significant implications for India's energy transition and climate goals. While renewable energy remains central to India's long-term energy strategy, and as global renewables top 30% of electricity generation worldwide, the persistence of coal-fired power plants complicates efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate change impacts. Balancing economic development, energy security, and environmental sustainability remains a complex challenge for policymakers.

Challenges and Opportunities

Addressing the challenges facing India's solar sector requires concerted efforts to streamline regulatory processes, improve grid infrastructure, and enhance financial mechanisms to attract investment. Encouraging greater private sector participation, promoting technology innovation, and expanding renewable energy storage capacity are essential to overcoming barriers and accelerating solar power deployment, as wind and solar have doubled their global share in recent years, demonstrating the pace possible.

Policy and Regulatory Framework

India's government plays a crucial role in fostering a conducive policy and regulatory framework to support renewable energy growth and phase out coal dependence, particularly as renewable power is set to shatter records worldwide. This includes implementing renewable energy targets, providing incentives for solar and other clean energy technologies, and addressing systemic barriers that hinder renewable energy adoption.

Path Forward

To accelerate India's energy transition and achieve its renewable energy targets, stakeholders must prioritize integrated energy planning, grid modernization, and sustainable development practices. Investing in renewable energy infrastructure, promoting energy efficiency measures, and fostering international collaboration on technology transfer and capacity building are key to unlocking India's renewable energy potential.

Conclusion

India stands at a crossroads in its energy transition journey, balancing the need to expand renewable energy capacity while managing the challenges associated with coal dependence. By addressing regulatory barriers, enhancing grid reliability, and promoting sustainable energy practices, India can navigate towards a more diversified and resilient energy future. Embracing innovation, strengthening policy frameworks, and fostering public-private partnerships will be essential in realizing India's vision of a cleaner, more sustainable energy landscape for generations to come.

 

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Cleaning up Canada's electricity is critical to meeting climate pledges

Canada Clean Electricity Standard targets a net-zero grid by 2035, using carbon pricing, CO2 caps, and carbon capture while expanding renewables and interprovincial trade to decarbonize power in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario.

 

Key Points

A federal plan to reach a net-zero grid by 2035 using CO2 caps, carbon pricing, carbon capture, renewables, and trade.

✅ CO2 caps and rising carbon prices through 2050

✅ Carbon capture required on gas plants in high-emitting provinces

✅ Renewables build-out and interprovincial trade to balance supply

 

A new tool has been proposed in the federal election campaign as a way of eradicating the carbon emissions from Canada’s patchwork electricity system. 

As the country’s need for power grows through the decarbonization of transportation, industry and space heating, the Liberal Party climate plan is proposing a clean energy standard to help Canada achieve a 100% net-zero-electricity system by 2035, aligning with Canada’s net-zero by 2050 target overall. 

The proposal echoes a report released August 19 by the David Suzuki Foundation and a group of environmental NGOs that also calls for a clean electricity standard, capping power-sector emissions, and tighter carbon-pricing regulations. The report, written by Simon Fraser University climate economist Mark Jaccard and data analyst Brad Griffin, asserts that these policies would effectively decarbonize Canada’s electricity system by 2035.

“Fuel switching from dirty fossil fuels to clean electricity is an essential part of any serious pathway to transition to a net-zero energy system by 2050,” writes Tom Green, climate policy advisor to the Suzuki Foundation, in a foreword to the report. The pathway to a net-zero grid is even more important as Canada switches from fossil fuels to electric vehicles, space heating and industrial processes, even as the Canadian Gas Association warns of high transition costs.

Under Jaccard and Griffin’s proposal, a clean electricity standard would be established to regulate CO2 emissions specifically from power plants across Canada. In addition, the plan includes an increase in the carbon price imposed on electricity system releases, combined with tighter regulation to ensure that 100% of the carbon price set by the federal government is charged to electricity producers. The authors propose that the current scheduled carbon price of $170 per tonne of CO2 in 2030 should rise to at least $300 per tonne by 2050.

In Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, the 2030 standard would mean that all fossil-fuel-powered electricity plants would require carbon capture in order to comply with the standard. The provinces would be given until 2035 to drop to zero grams CO2 per kilowatt hour, matching the 2030 standard for low-carbon provinces (Quebec, British Columbia, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island). 

Alberta and Saskatchewan targeted 
Canada has a relatively clean electricity system, as shown by nationwide progress in electricity, with about 80% of the country’s power generated from low- or zero-emission sources. So the biggest impacts of the proposal will be felt in the higher-carbon provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Alberta has a plan to switch from coal-based electric power to natural gas generation by 2023. But Saskatchewan is still working on its plan. Under the Jaccard-Griffin proposal, these provinces would need to install carbon capture on their gas-fired plants by 2030 and carbon-negative technology (biomass with carbon capture, for instance) by 2035. Saskatchewan has been operating carbon capture and storage technology at its Boundary Dam power station since 2014, but large-scale rollout at power plants has not yet been achieved in Canada. 

With its heavy reliance on nuclear and hydro generation, Ontario’s electricity supply is already low carbon. Natural gas now accounts for about 7% of the province’s grid, but the clean electricity standard could pose a big challenge for the province as it ramps up natural-gas-generated power to replace electricity from its aging Pickering station, scheduled to go out of service in 2025, even as a fully renewable grid by 2030 remains a debated goal. Pickering currently supplies about 14% of Ontario’s power. 

Ontario doesn’t have large geological basins for underground CO2 storage, as Alberta and Saskatchewan do, so the report says Ontario will have to build up its solar and wind generation significantly as part of Canada’s renewable energy race, or find a solution to capture CO2 from its gas plants. The Ontario Clean Air Alliance has kicked off a campaign to encourage the Ontario government to phase out gas-fired generation by purchasing power from Quebec or installing new solar or wind power.

As the report points out, the federal government has Supreme Court–sanctioned authority to impose carbon regulations, such as a clean electricity standard, and carbon pricing on the provinces, with significant policy implications for electricity grids nationwide.

The federal government can also mandate a national approach to CO2 reduction regardless of fuel source, encouraging higher-carbon provinces to work with their lower-carbon neighbours. The Atlantic provinces would be encouraged to buy power from hydro-heavy Newfoundland, for example, while Ontario would be encouraged to buy power from Quebec, Saskatchewan from Manitoba, and Alberta from British Columbia.

The Canadian Electricity Association, the umbrella organization for Canada’s power sector, did not respond to a request for comment on the Jaccard-Griffin report or the Liberal net-zero grid proposal.

Just how much more clean power will Canada need? 
The proposal has also kicked off a debate, and an IEA report underscores rising demand, about exactly how much additional electricity Canada will need in coming decades.

In his 2015 report, Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in Canada, energy and climate analyst Chris Bataille estimated that to achieve Canada’s climate net-zero target by 2050 the country will need to double its electricity use by that year.

Jaccard and Griffin agree with this estimate, saying that Canada will need more than 1,200 terawatt hours of electricity per year in 2050, up from about 640 terawatt hours currently.

But energy and climate consultant Ralph Torrie (also director of research at Corporate Knights) disputes this analysis.

He says large-scale programs to make the economy more energy efficient could substantially reduce electricity demand. A major program to install heat pumps and replace inefficient electric heating in homes and businesses could save 50 terawatt hours of consumption on its own, according to a recent report from Torrie and colleague Brendan Haley. 

Put in context, 50 terawatt hours would require generation from 7,500 large wind turbines. Applied to electric vehicle charging, 50 terawatt hours could power 10 million electric vehicles.

While Torrie doesn’t dispute the need to bring the power system to net-zero, he also doesn’t believe the “arm-waving argument that the demand for electricity is necessarily going to double because of the electrification associated with decarbonization.” 

 

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How Electricity Gets Priced in Europe and How That May Change

EU Power Market Overhaul targets soaring electricity prices by decoupling gas from power, boosting renewables, refining price caps, and stabilizing grids amid inflation, supply shocks, droughts, nuclear outages, and intermittent wind and solar.

 

Key Points

EU plan to redesign electricity pricing, curb gas-driven costs, boost renewables, and protect consumers from volatility.

✅ Decouples power prices from marginal gas generation

✅ Caps non-gas revenues to fund consumer relief

✅ Supports grid stability with storage, demand response, LNG

 

While energy prices are soaring around the world, Europe is in a particularly tight spot. Its heavy dependence on Russian gas -- on top of droughts, heat waves, an unreliable fleet of French nuclear reactors and a continent-wide shift to greener but more intermittent sources like solar and wind -- has been driving electricity bills up and feeding the highest inflation in decades. As Europe stands on the brink of a recession, and with the winter heating season approaching, officials are considering a major overhaul of the region’s power market to reflect the ongoing shift from fossil fuels to renewables.

1. How is electricity priced? 
Unlike oil or natural gas, there’s no efficient way to save lots of electricity to use in the future, though projects to store electricity in gas pipes are emerging. Commercial use of large-scale batteries is still years away. So power prices have been set by the availability at any given moment. When it’s really windy or sunny, for example, then more is produced relatively cheaply and prices are lower. If that supply shrinks, then prices rise because more generators are brought online to help meet demand -- fueled by more expensive sources. The way the market has long worked is that it is that final technology, or type of plant, needed to meet the last unit of consumption that sets the price for everyone. In Europe this year, that has usually meant natural gas. 

2. What is the relationship between power and gas? 
Very close. Across western Europe, gas plants have been a vital part of the energy infrastructure for decades, with Irish price spikes highlighting dispatchable power risks, fed in large part by supplies piped in from Siberia. Gas-fired plants were relatively quick to build and the technology straightforward, at least compared with nuclear plants and burns cleaner than coal. About 18% of Europe’s electricity was generated at gas plants last year; in 2020 about 43% of the imported gas came from Russia. Even during the depths of the Cold War, there’d never been a serious supply problem -- until the relationship with Russia deteriorated this year after it invaded Ukraine. Diversifying away from Russia, such as by increasing imports of liquefied natural gas, requires new infrastructure that takes a lot of time and money.

3. Why does it work this way? 
In theory, the relationship isn’t different from that with coal, for example. But production hiccups and heatwave curbs on plants from nuclear in France to hydro in Spain and Norway significantly changed the generation picture this year, and power hit records as plants buckled in the heat. Since coal-fired and nuclear plants are generally running all the time anyway, gas plants were being called upon more often -- at times just to keep the lights on as summer temperatures hit records. And with the war in Ukraine resulting in record gas prices, that pushed up overall production costs. It’s that relationship that has made the surging gas price the driver for electricity prices. And since the continent is all connected, it has pushed up prices across the region. The value of the European power market jumped threefold last year, to a record 836 billion euros ($827 billion today).

4. What’s being considered? 
With large parts of European industry on its knees and households facing jumps in energy bills of several hundred percent, as record electricity prices ripple through markets, the pressure on governments and the European Union to intervene has never been higher. One major proposal is to impose a price cap on electricity from non-gas producers, with the difference between that and the market price channeled to relief for consumers. While it sounds simple, any such changes would rip up a market design that’s worked for decades and could threaten future investments because of unintended consequences.


5. How did this market evolve?
The Nordic region and the British market were front-runners in the 1990s, then Germany followed and is now the largest by far. A trader can buy and sell electricity delivered later on same day in blocks of an hour or even down to 15-minute periods, to meet sudden demand or take advantage of price differentials. The price for these contracts is decided entirely by the supply and demand, how much the wind is blowing or which coal plants are operating, for example. Demand tends to surge early in the morning and late afternoon. This system was designed when fossil fuels provided the bulk of power. Now there are more renewables, which are less predictable, with wind and solar surpassing gas in EU generation last year, and the proposed changes reflect that shift. 

6. What else have governments done?
There are also traders who focus on longer-dated contracts covering periods several years ahead, where broader factors such as expected economic output and the extent to which renewables are crowding out gas help drive prices. This year’s wild price swings have prompted countries including Germany, Sweden and Finland to earmark billions of euros in emergency liquidity loans to backstop utilities hit with sudden margin calls on their trading.

 

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Hydro One CEO's $4.5M salary won't be reduced to help cut electricity costs

Hydro One CEO Salary shapes debate on Ontario electricity costs, executive compensation, sunshine list transparency, and public disclosure rules, as officials argue pay is not driving planned hydro rate cuts for consumers.

 

Key Points

Hydro One CEO pay disclosed in public filings, central to debates on Ontario electricity rates and transparency.

✅ 2016 compensation: $4.5M (salary + bonuses)

✅ Excluded from Ontario's sunshine list after privatization

✅ Government says pay won't affect planned hydro rate cuts

 

The $4.5 million in pay received by Hydro One's CEO is not a factor in the government's plan to cut electricity costs for consumers, an Ontario cabinet minister said Thursday amid opposition concerns about the executive's compensation and wider sector pressures such as Manitoba Hydro's rising debt in other provinces.

Treasury Board President Liz Sandals made her comments on the eve of the release of the province's so-called sunshine list.

The annual disclosure of public-sector salaries over $100,000 will be released Friday, but Hydro One salaries such as that of company boss Mayo Schmidt won't be on it.Though the government still owns most of Hydro One — 30 per cent has been sold — the company is required to follow the financial disclosure rules of publicly traded companies, which means disclosing the salaries of its CEO, CFO and next three highest-paid executives, and financial results such as a Q2 profit decline in filings.

New filings show that Schmidt was paid $4.5 million in 2016 — an $850,000 salary plus bonuses — and those top five executives were paid a total of about $11.7 million. 

"Clearly that's a very large amount," said Sandals. Sandals wouldn't say whether or not she thought the pay was appropriate at a time when the government is trying to reduce system costs and cut people's hydro bills.

Mayo Schmidt, President & CEO of Hydro One Limited and Hydro One Inc. (Hydro One )

But she suggested the CEO's salary was not a factor in efforts to bring down hydro prices, even as Hydro One shares fell after a leadership shakeup in a later period. "The CEO salary is not part of the equation of will 'we be able to make the cut,"' she said. "Regardless of what those salaries are, we will make a 25-per-cent-off cut." The cut coming this summer is actually an average of 17 per cent -- the 25-per-cent figure factors in an earlier eight-per-cent rebate.

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, who has proposed to make hydro public again in Ontario, said the executive salaries are relevant to cutting hydro costs.

"All of this is cost of operating the electricity system, it's part of the operating of Hydro One and so of course those increased salaries are going to impact the cost of our electricity," she said.

Schmidt was appointed Aug. 31, 2015, and in the last four months of that year earned $1.3 million, but the former CEO was paid $745,000 in 2014. About 3,800 workers were paid over $100,000 that year, none of whom will be on the sunshine list this year.

Progressive Conservative energy critic Todd Smith has a private member's bill that would put Hydro One salaries back on the list, amid investor concerns about Hydro One that cite too many unknowns.

"The Wynne Liberals don't want the people of Ontario to know that their rates have helped create a new millionaire's club at Hydro One," Smith said. "Hydro One is still under the majority ownership of the public, but Premier Kathleen Wynne has removed these salaries from the public's watchful eye."

The previous sunshine list showed 115,431 people were earning more than $100,000 — an increase of nearly 4,000 people despite the fact 3,774 Hydro One workers were not on the list for the first time.

Tom Mitchell, the former CEO at Ontario Power Generation who resigned last summer, topped the 2015 list at $1.59 million.

 

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Power firms win UK subsidies for new Channel cables project

UK Electricity Interconnectors secure capacity market subsidies, supporting winter reliability with seabed cables to France and Belgium via the Channel Tunnel, lowering consumer costs, squeezing coal, and challenging new gas plants through cross-border energy trading.

 

Key Points

High-voltage cables linking Britain to Europe, securing backup capacity, cutting costs and boosting winter reliability.

✅ Won capacity market contracts at record-low prices

✅ Cables to France and Belgium via Channel Tunnel, seabed routes

✅ Squeezes coal, challenges new gas; renewables may join market

 

New electricity cables across the Channel to France and Belgium will be a key part of keeping Britain’s lights on during winter amid record electricity prices across Europe in the early 2020s, after their owners won backup power subsidies in a government auction this week.

For the first time, interconnector operators successfully bid for a slice of hundreds of millions’ worth of contracts in the capacity market. That will help cut costs for consumers, given how electricity is priced in Europe today, and squeeze out old coal power plants.

Three new interconnectors are currently being built to Europe, almost doubling existing capacity, with one along the Channel Tunnel and two on the seabed: one between Kent and Zeebrugge and one from Hampshire to Normandy. 

The interconnectors were success stories in this week’s capacity auction, which saw power firms bid to provide backup electricity in the winter of 2021/22. Prices for the four-year contracts hit a record low of £8.40 per kilowatt per year, which analysts described as a shock and well below expectations.

One industry source said the figure was “miles away” from what is needed to encourage companies to build big new gas power stations, which some argue are necessary to fill the gap when the UK’s ageing nuclear reactors close as Europe loses nuclear power across the region over the next decade.

While bad news for those firms, the low price is good for consumers. The subsidies will add about £525m to energy bills, or £5.68 for the average household, compared with £11 for the year before, according to analysts Cornwall Insight.

Existing gas power stations scooped up most of the contracts, but new gas ones lost out, as did several coal plants. Battery storage plants, a standout success in the last auction, fared comparatively poorly after changes to the rules.

Experts at Bernstein bank said the the misses by coal meant that around half the UK’s remaining coal power capacity could close from October 2019, when existing capacity market contracts run out. Chaitanya Kumar, policy adviser at thinktank Green Alliance, said: “Coal’s exit from the UK’s energy system just moved a step closer as coal contracts fell by half compared with last year.”

Tom Edwards, an analyst at Cornwall Insight, said that more interconnectors were likely to bid into future rounds of the capacity market, such as the cable being laid between Norway and the UK. Relying on foreign power supplies was fine, he said, provided Brexit did not make energy trading more difficult and the interconnectors delivered at times of need, where events like Irish grid price spikes illustrate the stress points.

However, one industry source, who wants to see new gas plants built in the UK, said the results showed that the system was not working, amid UK peak power prices that have climbed in recent trading. “That self-sufficiency doesn’t seem to be a priority at a time when we’re breaking away from Europe is a bit weird,” they said.

But the prospects for new gas plants in future rounds of the capacity market look bleak. They will very likely face a new source of competition next year, if energy regulator Ofgem approves a proposal to allow renewables to compete too.

 

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Trump declares end to 'war on coal,' but utilities aren't listening

US Utilities Shift From Coal as natural gas stays cheap, renewables like wind and solar scale, Clean Power Plan uncertainty lingers, and investors, state policies, and emissions targets drive generation choices and accelerate retirements.

 

Key Points

A long-term shift by utilities from coal to cheap natural gas, expanding renewables, and lower-emission generation.

✅ Cheap natural gas undercuts coal on price and flexibility.

✅ Renewables costs falling; wind and solar add competitive capacity.

✅ State policies and investors sustain emissions reductions.

 

When President Donald Trump signed an executive order last week to sweep away Obama-era climate change regulations, he said it would end America's "war on coal", usher in a new era of energy production and put miners back to work.

But the biggest consumers of U.S. coal - power generating companies - remain unconvinced about efforts to replace Obama's power plant overhaul with a lighter-touch approach.

Reuters surveyed 32 utilities with operations in the 26 states that sued former President Barack Obama's administration to block its Clean Power Plan, the main target of Trump's executive order. The bulk of them have no plans to alter their multi-billion dollar, years-long shift away from coal, suggesting demand for the fuel will keep falling despite Trump's efforts.

The utilities gave many reasons, mainly economic: Natural gas - coal’s top competitor - is cheap and abundant; solar and wind power costs are falling; state environmental laws remain in place; and Trump's regulatory rollback may not survive legal challenges, as rushed pricing changes draw warnings from energy groups.

Meanwhile, big investors aligned with the global push to fight climate change – such as the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund – have been pressuring U.S. utilities in which they own stakes to cut coal use.

"I’m not going to build new coal plants in today’s environment," said Ben Fowke, CEO of Xcel Energy, which operates in eight states and uses coal for about 36 percent of its electricity production. "And if I’m not going to build new ones, eventually there won’t be any."

Of the 32 utilities contacted by Reuters, 20 said Trump's order would have no impact on their investment plans; five said they were reviewing the implications of the order; six gave no response. Just one said it would prolong the life of some of its older coal-fired power units.

North Dakota's Basin Electric Power Cooperative was the sole utility to identify an immediate positive impact of Trump's order on the outlook for coal.

"We're in the situation where the executive order takes a lot of pressure off the decisions we had to make in the near term, such as whether to retrofit and retire older coal plants," said Dale Niezwaag, a spokesman for Basin Electric. "But Trump can be a one-termer, so the reprieve out there is short."

Trump's executive order triggered a review aimed at killing the Clean Power Plan and paving the way for the EPA's Affordable Clean Energy rule to replace it, though litigation is ongoing. The Obama-era law would have required states, by 2030, to collectively cut carbon emissions from existing power plants by 30 percent from 2005 levels. It was designed as a primary strategy in U.S. efforts to fight global climate change.

The U.S. coal industry, without increases in domestic demand, would need to rely on export markets for growth. Shipments of U.S. metallurgical coal, used in the production of steel, have recently shown up in China following a two-year hiatus - in part to offset banned shipments from North Korea and temporary delays from cyclone-hit Australian producers.

 

RETIRING AND RETROFITTING

Coal had been the primary fuel source for U.S. power plants for the last century, but its use has fallen more than a third since 2008 after advancements in drilling technology unlocked new reserves of natural gas.

Hundreds of aging coal-fired power plants have been retired or retrofitted. Huge coal mining companies like Peabody Energy Corp and Arch Coal fell into bankruptcy, and production last year hit its lowest point since 1978.

The slide appears likely to continue: U.S. power companies now expect to retire or convert more than 8,000 megawatts of coal-fired plants in 2017 after shutting almost 13,000 MW last year, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration and Thomson Reuters data.

Luke Popovich, a spokesman for the National Mining Association, acknowledged Trump's efforts would not return the coal industry to its "glory days," but offered some hope.

"There may not be immediate plans for utilities to bring on more coal, but the future is always uncertain in this market," he said.

Many of the companies in the Reuters survey said they had been focused on reducing carbon emissions for a decade or more while tracking 2017 utility trends that reinforce long-term planning, and were hesitant to change direction based on shifting political winds in Washington D.C.

"Utility planning typically takes place over much longer periods than presidential terms of office," Berkshire Hathaway Inc-owned Pacificorp spokesman Tom Gauntt said.

Several utilities also cited falling costs for wind and solar power, which are now often as cheap as coal or natural gas, thanks in part to government subsidies for renewable energy and recent FERC decisions affecting the grid.

In the meantime, activist investors have increased pressure on U.S. utilities to shun coal.

In the last year, Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, has excluded more than a dozen U.S. power companies - including Xcel, American Electric Power Co Inc and NRG Energy Inc - from its investments because of their reliance on coal-fired power.

Another eight companies, including Southern Co and NorthWestern Corp, are "under observation" by the fund.

Wyoming-based coal miner Cloud Peak Energy said it doesn't blame utilities for being lukewarm to Trump's order.

"For eight years, if you were a utility running coal, you got the hell kicked out of you," said Richard Reavey, a spokesman for the company. "Are you going to turn around tomorrow and say, 'Let's buy lots of coal plants'? Pretty unlikely."

 

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