Energy demand will lead to inflation: expert

By Vancouver Sun


Protective Relay Training - Basic

Our customized live online or in‑person group training can be delivered to your staff at your location.

  • Live Online
  • 12 hours Instructor-led
  • Group Training Available
Regular Price:
$699
Coupon Price:
$599
Reserve Your Seat Today
Growing global demand for energy will soon push Canadian retail gasoline prices over $1.50 and spark a surge in inflation, particularly for food, gas and home heating, CIBC World Markets chief economist Jeff Rubin warned recently.

Oil-producing nations are gulping down an ever-growing amount of their own output, and large new sources such as the Alberta oilsands are substantially more expensive to develop than conventional oilfields, Rubin said in the keynote presentation at a CIBC conference in Vancouver on opportunities in the clean energy sector.

Rubin said the world appears to be closing in on the absolute limit of its capacity to produce oil.

He figures production will peak at a level just three to four million barrels per day higher than present consumption of about 82 million barrels a day.

By 2012, he sees oil trading at $150 a barrel, and gasoline retailing in Canada for $1.50 per litre of regular.

As a consequence of higher energy prices, he expects inflation in North America to jump to four or five per cent by 2011 -- even before carbon taxes such as those introduced this week by the B.C. government increase enough to show a noticeable impact upon gross domestic product.

Rubin said signs of inflation for food and fuel are already emerging in the United States, and added that Canada has been buffered only by the surge in value of the Canadian dollar.

"I think food and energy are on a one-way ticket to inflation - higher and higher and higher," he said. "We are already seeing U.S. consumer price index food inflation running at five per cent.

"Energy (price inflation) is running at four to five per cent in the U.S. You don't see it here in Canada only for one reason, the appreciation of the Canadian dollar, because so much of our food comes from the U.S. and oil prices are in U.S. dollars."

Meanwhile, concerns about global warming have more or less killed prospects in the U.S. for any new coal-fired generating plants to keep pace with U.S. demand for electricity.

That means a shift to power plants using natural gas to generate electricity - they emit about half the carbon dioxide of comparably sized coal plants and are seen as an essential transition from coal to nuclear and large-scale green energy.

"The big, big energy crunch and certainly the big battle over CO2 emissions is not going to be fought at the gas station. It's going to be fought at the power plant. I don't believe it is socially acceptable to build new coal-fired capacity in most places in North America - even places like Texas."

Rubin has a talent for headline-grabbing predictions that come to pass. In 2005, he said the global price for a barrel of oil would reach $100 by 2007, a level it briefly reached in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange for April delivery before closing at $99.81.

Related News

How the dirtiest power station in western Europe switched to renewable energy

Drax Biomass Conversion accelerates renewable energy by replacing coal with wood pellets, sustainable forestry feedstock, and piloting carbon capture and storage, supporting the UK grid, emissions cuts, and a net-zero pathway.

 

Key Points

Drax Biomass Conversion is Drax's shift from coal to biomass with CCS pilots to cut emissions and aid UK's net-zero.

✅ Coal units converted to biomass wood pellets

✅ Sourced from sustainable forestry residues

✅ CCS pilots target lifecycle emissions cuts

 

A power station that used to be the biggest polluter in western Europe has made a near-complete switch to renewable energy, mirroring broader shifts as Denmark's largest energy company plans to end coal by 2023.

The Drax Power Station in Yorkshire, England, used to spew out millions of tons of carbon dioxide a year by burning coal. But over the past eight years, it has overhauled its operations by converting four of its six coal-fired units to biomass. The plant's owners say it now generates 15% of the country's renewable power, as Britain recently went a full week without coal power for the first time.

The change means that just 6% of the utility's power now comes from coal, as the wider UK coal share hits record lows across the national electricity system. The ultimate goal is to stop using coal altogether.

"We've probably reduced our emissions more than any other utility in the world by transforming the way we generate power," Will Gardner, CEO of the Drax Group, told CNN Business.

Subsidies have helped finance the switch to biomass, which consists of plant and agricultural matter and is viewed as a promising substitute for coal, and utilities such as Nova Scotia Power are also increasing biomass use. Last year, Drax received £789 million ($1 billion) in government support.

 

Is biomass good for the environment?

While scientists disagree over the extent to which biomass as a fuel is environmentally friendly, and some environmentalists urge reducing biomass use amid concerns about lifecycle emissions, Drax highlights that its supplies come from from sustainably managed and growing forests.

Most of the biomass used by Drax consists of low-grade wood, sawmill residue and trees with little commercial value from the United States. The material is compressed into sawdust pellets.

Gardner says that by purchasing bits of wood not used for construction or furniture, Drax makes it more financially viable for forests to be replanted. And planting new trees helps offset biomass emissions.

Forests "absorb carbon as they're growing, once they reach maturity, they stop absorbing carbon," said Raphael Slade, a senior research fellow at Imperial College London.

But John Sterman, a professor at MIT's Sloan School of Management, says that in the short term burning wood pellets adds more carbon to the atmosphere than burning coal.

That carbon can be absorbed by new trees, but Sterman says the process can take decades.

"If you're looking at five years, [biomass is] not very good ... If you're looking at a century-long time scale, which is the sort of time scale that many foresters plan, then [biomass] can be a lot more beneficial," says Slade.

 

Carbon capture

Enter carbon capture and storage technology, which seeks to prevent CO2 emissions from entering the atmosphere and has been touted as a possible solution to the climate crisis.

Drax, for example, is developing a system to capture the carbon it produces from burning biomass. But that could be 10 years away.

 

The Coal King is racing to avoid bankruptcy

The power station is currently capturing just 1 metric ton of CO2 emissions per day. Gardner says it hopes to increase this to 10,000 metric tons per day by the mid to late 2020s.

"The technology works but scaling it up and rolling it out, and financing it, are going to be significant challenges," says Slade.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shares this view. The group said in a 2018 report that while the potential for CO2 capture and storage was considerable, its importance in the fight against climate change would depend on financial incentives for deployment, and whether the risks of storage could be successfully managed. These include a potential CO2 pipeline break.

In the United Kingdom, the government believes that carbon capture and storage will be crucial to reaching its goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, even as low-carbon generation stalled in 2019 according to industry analysis.

It has committed to consulting on a market-based industrial carbon capture framework and in June awarded £26 million ($33 million) in funding for nine carbon capture, usage and storage projects, amid record coal-free generation on the British grid.

 

Related News

View more

Three Mile Island at center of energy debate: Let struggling nuclear plants close or save them

Three Mile Island Nuclear Debate spotlights subsidies, carbon pricing, wholesale power markets, grid reliability, and zero-emissions goals as Pennsylvania weighs keeping Exelon's reactor open amid natural gas competition and flat electricity demand.

 

Key Points

Debate over subsidies, carbon pricing, and grid reliability shaping Three Mile Island's zero-emissions future.

✅ Zero emissions credits vs market integrity

✅ Carbon pricing to value clean baseload power

✅ Closure risks jobs, tax revenue, and reliability

 

Three Mile Island is at the center of a new conversation about the future of nuclear energy in the United States nearly 40 years after a partial meltdown at the Central Pennsylvania plant sparked a national debate about the safety of nuclear power.

The site is slated to close in just two years, a closure plan Exelon has signaled, unless Pennsylvania or a regional power transmission operator delivers some form of financial relief, says Exelon, the Chicago-based power company that operates the plant.

That has drawn the Keystone State into a growing debate: whether to let struggling nuclear plants shut down if they cannot compete in the regional wholesale markets where energy is bought and sold, or adopt measures to keep them in the business of generating power without greenhouse gas emissions.

""The old compromise — that in order to have a reliable, affordable electric system you had to deal with a significant amount of air pollution — is a compromise our new customers today don't want to hear about.""
-Joseph Dominguez, Exelon executive vice president
Nuclear power plants produce about two-thirds of the country's zero-emissions electricity, a role many view as essential to net-zero emissions goals for the grid.

The debate is playing out as some regions consider putting a price on planet-warming carbon emissions produced by some power generators, which would raise their costs and make nuclear plants like Three Mile Island more viable, and developments such as Europe's nuclear losses highlight broader energy security concerns.

States that allow nuclear facilities to close need to think carefully because once a reactor is powered down, there's no turning back, said Jake Smeltz, chief of staff for Pennsylvania State Sen. Ryan Aument, who chairs the state's Nuclear Energy Caucus.

"If we wave goodbye to a nuclear station, it's a permanent goodbye because we don't mothball them. We decommission them," he told CNBC.

Three Mile Island's closure would eliminate more than 800 megawatts of electricity output. That's roughly 10 percent of Pennsylvania's zero-emissions energy generation, by Exelon's calculation. Replacing that with fossil fuel-fired power would be like putting roughly 10 million cars on the road, it estimates.

A closure would also shed about 650 well-paying jobs, putting the just transition challenge in focus for local workers and communities, tied to about $60 million in wages per year. Dauphin County and Londonderry Township, a rural area on the Susquehanna River where the plant is based, stand to lose $1 million in annual tax revenue that funds schools and municipalities. The 1,000 to 1,500 workers who pack local hotels, stores and restaurants every two years for plant maintenance would stop visiting.

Pennsylvanians and lawmakers must now decide whether these considerations warrant throwing Exelon a lifeline. It's a tough sell in the nation's second-largest natural gas-producing state, which already generates more energy than it uses. And time is running out to reach a short-term solution.

"What's meaningful to us is something where we could see the results before we turn in the keys, and we turn in the keys the third quarter of '19," said Joseph Dominguez, Exelon's executive vice president for governmental and regulatory affairs and public policy.

The end of the nuclear age?

The problem for Three Mile Island is the same one facing many of the nation's 60 nuclear plants: They are too expensive to operate.

Financial pressure on these facilities is mounting as power demand remains stagnant due to improved energy efficiency, prices remain low for natural gas-fired generation and costs continue to fall for wind and solar power.

Three Mile Island is something of a special case: The 1979 incident left only one of its two reactors operational, but it still employs about as many people as a plant with two reactors, making it less efficient. In the last three regional auctions, when power generators lock in buyers for their future energy generation, no one bought power from Three Mile Island.

But even dual-reactor plants are facing existential threats. FirstEnergy Corp's Beaver Valley will sell or close its nuclear plant near the Pennsylvania-Ohio border next year as it exits the competitive power-generation business, and facilities like Ohio's Davis-Besse illustrate what's at stake for the region.

Five nuclear power plants have shuttered across the country since 2013. Another six have plans to shut down, and four of those would close well ahead of schedule. An analysis by energy research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance found that more than half the nation's nuclear plants are facing some form of financial stress.

Today's regional energy markets, engineered to produce energy at the lowest cost to consumers, do not take into account that nuclear power generates so much zero-emission electricity. But Dominguez, the Exelon vice president, said that's out of step with a world increasingly concerned about climate change.

"What we see is increasingly our customers are interested in getting electricity from zero air pollution sources," Dominguez said. "The old compromise — that in order to have a reliable, affordable electric system you had to deal with a significant amount of air pollution — is a compromise our new customers today don't want to hear about."

Strange bedfellows

Faced with the prospect of nuclear plant closures, Chicago and New York have both allowed nuclear reactors to qualify for subsidies called zero emissions credits. Exelon lobbied for the credits, which will benefit some of its nuclear plants in those states.

Even though the plants produce nuclear waste, some environmental groups like the Natural Resources Defense Council supported these plans. That's because they were part of broader packages that promote wind and solar power, and the credits for nuclear are not open-ended. They essentially provide a bridge that keeps zero-emissions power from nuclear reactors on the grid as renewable energy becomes more viable.

Lawmakers in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Connecticut are currently exploring similar options. Jake Smeltz, chief of staff to state Sen. Aument, said legislation could surface in Pennsylvania as soon as this fall. The challenge is to get people to consider the attributes of the sources of their electricity beyond just cost, according to Smeltz.

"Are the plants worth essentially saving? That's a social choice. Do they provide us with something that has benefits beyond the electrons they make? That's the debate that's been happening in other states, and those states say yes," he said.

Subsidies face opposition from anti-nuclear energy groups like Three Mile Island Alert, as well as natural gas trade groups and power producers who compete against Exelon by operating coal and natural gas plants.

"Where we disagree is to have an out-of-market subsidy for one specific company, for a technology that is now proven and mature in our view, at the expense of consumers and the integrity of competitive markets," NRG Energy Mauricio Gutierrez told analysts during a conference call this month.

Smeltz notes that power producers like NRG would fill in the void left by nuclear plants as they continue to shut down.

"The question that I think folks need to answer is are these programs a bailout or is the opposition to the program a payout? Because at the end of the day someone is going to make money. The question is who and how much?" Smeltz said.

Changing the market

Another critic is PJM Interconnection, the regional transmission organization that operates the grid for 13 states, including Pennsylvania, and Washington, D.C.

The subsidies distort price formation and inject uncertainty into the markets, says Stu Bresler, senior vice president in charge of operations and markets at PJM.

The danger PJM sees is that each new subsidy creates a precedent for government intervention. The uncertainty makes it harder for investors to determine what sort of power generation is a sound investment in the region, Bresler explained. Those investors could simply decide to put their capital to work in other energy markets where the regulatory outlook is more stable, ultimately leading to underinvestment in places where government intervenes, he added.

Three Mile Island nuclear power plant, Londonderry Township, Pennsylvania
PJM believes longer-term, regional approaches are more appropriate. It has produced research that outlines how coal plants and nuclear energy, which provide the type of stable energy that is still necessary for reliable power supply, could play a larger role in setting prices. It is also preparing to release a report on how to put a price on carbon emissions in all or parts of the regional grid.

"If carbon emissions are the concern and that is the public policy issue with which policymakers are concerned, the simple be-all answer from a market perspective is putting a price on carbon," Bresler said.

Three Mile Island could be viable if natural gas prices rose from below $3 per million British thermal units to about $5 per mmBtu and if a "reasonable" price were applied to carbon, according to Exelon's Dominguez. He is encouraged by the fact that conversations around new pricing models and carbon pricing are gaining traction.

"The great part about this is everybody understands we have a major problem. We're losing some of the lowest-cost, cleanest and most reliable resources in America," Dominguez said.

 

Related News

View more

Texas utility companies waiving fees; city has yet to act

Texas Utility COVID-19 Relief suspends disconnections, waives late fees, extends payment plans, and supports broadband access as electric, gas, and internet providers help customers during the statewide emergency with speed upgrades and student WiFi initiatives.

 

Key Points

Texas utilities pause disconnections, waive fees, expand access, and offer flexible payment plans during COVID-19.

✅ Disconnections and late fees suspended by gas, power, internet.

✅ Payment plans and deferred balances after emergency.

✅ Bandwidth caps lifted; student WiFi access for remote learning.

 

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Texas utility companies have taken unprecedented steps to keep customers' lights on, gas flowing, and online connections stable -- even if they can't pay, amid concerns over pandemic electricity shutoffs nationwide.

Meantime, Palestine City Council members plan to discuss hardship measures Monday, as some states such as New Jersey and New York implement moratoriums on shut-offs, but have no plans yet to ease the burden of paying two other essential services during the statewide emergency -- trash collection and water. Those services are billed through the city.

For many residents, money will be tight after the statewide emergency declaration. Businesses are cutting back or closing. Workers are staying home to avoid the coronavirus.

"We are putting our customers first," Larry Ball, spokesman for Atmos Energy, a Dallas-based natural gas company, told the Herald-Press Friday. "The safety of all of our customers has always been our first priority."

While the declared emergency remains in effect, Atmos has suspended all late fees and customer disconnections, a step similar to PG&E's shutoff moratorium in California.

"Atmos Energy's commitment to safety, paired with our culture, have led us during unique times," Kevin Akers, Atmos President and CEO said. "This will be no different."

Internet Service Providers SuddenLink and Centurylink have similarly suspended all disconnections and late fees. Additionally, Centurylink, a global company serving 36 states, has promised to scrap bandwidth limits, while ensuring the highest speeds possible.

SuddenLink, a division of Altice Business, is also partnering with school districts in their service area to offer its Student WiFi product free for 60 days. That will allow students who have school-issued devices, but no dedicated home Internet access, the ability to use the Optimum WiFi Hot Spot Network to access their school's network and resources.

Electric companies such as TXU and Houston-based Gexa Energy also are working to keep customers safe and connected, and Entergy's relief fund highlights additional support for customers.

During the declared emergency, Gexa is waiving all disconnection and reconnection fees, as well as late fees, a policy focus that later intersected with debates over a proposed electricity market bailout in Texas. Payment plans will be set up for customers, after the crisis ends, Gexa Energy officials said.

"Everyone needs their power on," a Gexa spokesman said. "That is our number one priority."

TXU, based in Irving, is waiving late fees, extending payment due dates with no down-payment required, and deferring customer balances over multiple installments, while some retailers like Griddy underscored the risks of variable-rate plans.

If customers still can't pay, TXU officials said, the company will keep their lights on, a commitment underscored after the Texas winter storm outages exposed vulnerabilities. Customers in need should call 800-242-9113.

"The coronavirus is causing uncertainty and many hardships," Scott Hudson, president of TXU energy, said. "We are committed to serving our communities."

 

Related News

View more

Affordable, safe' nuclear power is key to reaching Canada's climate goals: federal minister

Canada Nuclear Power Expansion highlights SMRs, clean energy, net-zero targets, and robust regulation to deliver safe, reliable baseload electricity, spur investment, and economically decarbonize remote communities, mines, and grids across provinces securely.

 

Key Points

Canada Nuclear Power Expansion grows SMRs and reactors to meet climate targets with safe, reliable baseload power.

✅ Deploys SMRs for remote communities, mines, and industrial sites

✅ Streamlines regulation to ensure safety, trust, and timely approvals

✅ Provides clean, reliable baseload to hit net-zero electricity goals

 

Canada must expand its nuclear power capacity if it is to reach its climate targets, according to Canadian Minister of Natural Resources Seamus Oregan.

Speaking to the Canadian Nuclear Association’s annual conference, Seamus O’Regan said the industry has to grow.

“As the world tackles a changing climate, nuclear power is poised to provide the next wave of clean, affordable, safe and reliable power,” he told a packed room.

The Ottawa conference was the largest the industry has run with dozens of companies and more than 900 people in attendance. Provincial cabinet ministers from Saskatchewan and Ontario were also there. Those two provinces, along with New Brunswick, signed a memorandum in December as part of a premiers' nuclear initiative to work together on small modular reactor technology.

People need to know that it’s safe

Small modular reactors are units that produce less power than large generating stations, but can be constructed easier and are expected to be safer to operate. Canadian firms have about a dozen of the proposed reactors working their way through the regulatory process, with New Brunswick's SMR plans drawing scrutiny.

The smaller reactors could be used in groups to replace large units, but the industry also hopes to use them in rural or isolated communities, mines or even oilsands projects, potentially replacing the diesel power generators some remote communities use.

The Canadian government issued a road map to support the industry in 2018 and O’Regan committed Thursday to putting some teeth on that proposal later this year, as provinces like Ontario explore new large-scale nuclear plants to meet demand, with specific steps the government will take.

“We have been working so hard to support this industry. We are placing nuclear energy front and centre, something that has never been done before.”

O’Regan said the government’s role is a clear, streamlined regulatory system that will promote the industry, but also help the Canadian public to trust the reactors will be safe.

“People need to know that it’s safe. They need to know that it’s regulated. They need to know that it’s safe for them,” he said.

The Liberals promised during the campaign that they would gradually reduce Canada’s carbon emissions even after hitting the targets in the Paris Agreement by 2030. By 2050, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he expects Canada to be carbon neutral, mindful of lessons from Europe's power crisis on reliability.

The government hasn’t outlined how it will achieve that goal. O’Regan said more detail is coming, but it’s clear that nuclear is going to have to play a major part, echoing the UK’s green industrial revolution approach to reactor deployment.

“I have not seen a credible plan for net zero without nuclear as part of the mix. I don’t think we are going to be relying on any one technology. I think it’s going to be a whole host of things.”

O’Regan said large investors are looking for countries that are on the path to net zero.

“Everybody has their shirt sleeves rolled up and we know we need to work on this, not only do we have to work on this for the urgency of the planet, but we have to work on it for Canadian jobs.”

He added, “We must focus on those areas where Canada can and should lead, like nuclear.”

Canadians are ready to take a fresh look at nuclear

John Gorman, president of the Canadian Nuclear Association, said he was thrilled with O’Regan’s comments.

“I took the minister’s remarks this morning as being perhaps the strongest language of support for the nuclear industry in a number of years.”

Gorman said the industry is in strong shape and is working with utility companies such as Ontario Power Generation and regulators to move projects forward.

“It’s this amazing collaboration and coordination that is enabling us to beat others to the roll out of these small modular reactors,” he said.

He said provinces that might not have looked at nuclear before now have an incentive to do it, because of climate change. A former solar industry executive, Gorman said solar and wind power are important, as Ontario plans to seek new wind and solar power to ease supply pressures, but they won’t be able to keep up with rising power demands.

“Globally we are seeing increased recognition that climate change is real and that it’s a crisis, we are also seeing recognition that we are not making as much progress on decarbonizing our electricity system as we thought,” he said. “Canadians are ready to take a fresh look at nuclear and see the real facts.”

 

Related News

View more

BC Hydro: 2021 was a record-breaking year for electricity demand

BC Hydro 2021 Peak Load Records highlight record-breaking electricity demand, peak load spikes, heat dome impacts, extreme cold, and shifting work-from-home patterns managed by a flexible hydroelectric system and climate-driven load trends.

 

Key Points

Record-breaking electricity demand peaks from extreme heat and cold that reshaped daily load patterns across BC in 2021.

✅ Heat dome and deep freeze drove sustained peak electricity demand

✅ Peak load built gradually, reflecting work-from-home behavior

✅ Flexible hydroelectric system adapts quickly to demand spikes

 

From June’s heat dome to December’s extreme cold, 2021 was a record-setting year, according to BC Hydro, and similar spikes were noted as Calgary's electricity use surged in frigid weather.

On Friday, the energy company released a new report on electricity demand, and how extreme temperatures over extended periods of time, along with growing scrutiny of crypto mining electricity use, led to record peak loads.

“We use peak loads to describe the electricity demand in the province during the highest load hour of each day,” Kyle Donaldson, BC Hydro spokesperson, said in a media release.

“With the heat dome in the summer and the sustained cold temperatures in December, we saw more record-breaking hours on more days last year than any other single year.”

According to BC Hydro, during summer, the Crown corporation recorded 19 of its top 25 all-time summer daily peak records — including breaking its all-time summer peak hourly demand record.

In December, which saw extremely cold temperatures and heavy snowfall, BC Hydro said its system experienced the highest and longest sustained load levels ever, as it activated its winter payment plan to assist customers.

Overall, BC Hydro says it has experienced 11 of its top 25 all-time daily peak records this winter, adding that Dec. 27 broke its all-time high peak hourly demand record.

“BC Hydro’s hydroelectric system is directly impacted by variations in weather, including drought conditions that require adaptation, and in 2021 more electricity demand records were broken than any other year prior, largely because of the back-to-back extreme temperatures lasting for days and weeks on end,” reads the report.

The energy company expects this trend to continue, noting that it has broken the peak record five times in the past five years, and other jurisdictions such as Quebec consumption record have also shattered consumption records.

It also noted that peak demand patterns have also changed since the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, with trends seen during Earth Hour usage offering context.

“When the previous peak hourly load record was broken in January 2020, load displayed sharper increases and decreases throughout the day, suggesting more typical weather and behaviour,” said the report.

“In contrast, the 2021 peak load built up more gradually throughout the day, suggesting more British Columbians were likely working from home, or home for the holidays – waking up later and home earlier in the evening – as well as colder weather than average.”

BC Hydro also said “current climate models suggest a warming trend continuing in years to come which could increase demand year-round,” but noted that its flexible hydroelectric system can meet changes in demand quickly.

 

Related News

View more

Ukraine Resumes Electricity Exports

Ukraine Electricity Exports resume as the EU grid links stabilize; ENTSO-E caps, megawatt capacity, renewables, and infrastructure repairs enable power flows to Moldova, Poland, Slovakia, and Romania despite ongoing Russian strikes.

 

Key Points

Resumed cross-border power sales showing grid stability under ENTSO-E limits and surplus generation.

✅ Exports restart to Moldova; Poland, Slovakia, Romania next.

✅ ENTSO-E cap limits to 400 MW; more capacity under negotiation.

✅ Revenues fund grid repairs after Russian strikes.

 

Ukraine began resuming electricity exports to European countries on Tuesday, its energy minister said, a dramatic turnaround from six months ago when fierce Russian bombardment of power stations plunged much of the country into darkness in a bid to demoralize the population.

The announcement by Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko that Ukraine was not only meeting domestic consumption demands but also ready to restart exports to its neighbors was a clear message that Moscow’s attempt to weaken Ukraine by targeting its infrastructure did not work.

Ukraine’s domestic energy demand is “100%” supplied, he told The Associated Press in an interview, and it has reserves to export due to the “titanic work” of its engineers and international partners.

Russia ramped up infrastructure attacks in September, when waves of missiles and exploding drones destroyed about half of Ukraine's energy system, even as it built lines to reactivate the Zaporizhzhia plant in occupied territory. Power cuts were common across the country as temperatures dropped below freezing and tens of millions struggled to keep warm.

Moscow said the strikes were aimed at weakening Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, and both sides have floated a possible agreement on power plant attacks amid mounting civilian harm, while Western officials said the blackouts that caused civilians to suffer amounted to war crimes. Ukrainians said the timing was designed to destroy their morale as the war marked its first anniversary.


Ukraine had to stop exporting electricity in October to meet domestic needs.

Engineers worked around the clock, often risking their lives to come into work at power plants and keep the electricity flowing. Kyiv’s allies also provided help. In December, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced $53 million in bilateral aid to help the country acquire electricity grid equipment, on top of $55 million for energy sector support.

Much more work remains to be done, Halushchenko said. Ukraine needs funding to repair damaged generation and transmission lines, and revenue from electricity exports would be one way to do that.

The first country to receive Ukraine’s energy exports will be Moldova, he said.

Besides the heroic work by engineers and Western aid, warmer temperatures are enabling the resumption of exports by making domestic demand lower, and across Europe initiatives like virtual power plants for homes are helping balance grids. Nationwide consumption was already down at least 30% due to the war, Halushchenko said, with many industries having to operate with less power.

Renewables like solar and wind power also come into play as temperatures rise, taking some pressure off nuclear and coal-fired power plants.

But it’s unclear if Ukraine can keep up exports amid the constant threat of Russian bombardment.

“Unfortunately now a lot of things depend on the war,” Halushchenko said. “I would say we feel quite confident now until the next winter.”

Exports to Poland, Slovakia and Romania are also on schedule to resume, he said.

“Today we are starting with Moldova, and we are talking about Poland, we are talking about Slovakia and Romania,” Halushchenko added, noting that how much will depend on their needs.

“For Poland, we have only one line that allows us to export 200 megawatts, but I think this month we will finish another line which will increase this to an additional 400 MW, so these figures could change,” he said.

Export revenue will depend on fluctuating electricity prices in Europe, where stunted hydro and nuclear output may hobble recovery efforts. In 2022, while Ukraine was still able to export energy, Ukrainian companies averaged 40 million to 70 million euros a month depending on prices, Halushchenko said.

“Even if it’s 20 (million euros) it’s still good money. We need financial resources now to restore generation and transmission lines,” he said.

Ukraine has the ability to export more than the 400 megawatt capacity limit imposed by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, or ENTSO-E, and rising EU wind and solar output is reshaping cross-border flows. “We are in negotiations to increase this cap because today we can export even more, we have the necessary reserves in the system,” the minister said.

The current capacity limit is in line with what Ukraine was exporting in September 2022 before Ukraine diverted resources to meet domestic needs amid the Russian onslaught.

 

Related News

View more

Sign Up for Electricity Forum’s Newsletter

Stay informed with our FREE Newsletter — get the latest news, breakthrough technologies, and expert insights, delivered straight to your inbox.

Electricity Today T&D Magazine Subscribe for FREE

Stay informed with the latest T&D policies and technologies.
  • Timely insights from industry experts
  • Practical solutions T&D engineers
  • Free access to every issue

Live Online & In-person Group Training

Advantages To Instructor-Led Training – Instructor-Led Course, Customized Training, Multiple Locations, Economical, CEU Credits, Course Discounts.

Request For Quotation

Whether you would prefer Live Online or In-Person instruction, our electrical training courses can be tailored to meet your company's specific requirements and delivered to your employees in one location or at various locations.