Darlington reactors on hold

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Ontario is indefinitely postponing new nuclear reactors that were to have been built at Darlington, Energy Minister George Smitherman announced.

Smitherman said Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. delivered the best bid for the contract for reactors that were to have been built for 2018, but said Ontario is concerned about "uncertainty" at the troubled nuclear agency.

He called on the federal government "to clarify the future ownership of AECL" before Ontario will proceed.

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U.S. Electricity Sales Projections Continue to Fall

US Electricity Demand Outlook examines EIA forecasts, GDP decoupling, energy efficiency, electrification, electric vehicles, grid load growth, and weather variability to frame long term demand trends and utility planning scenarios.

 

Key Points

An analysis of EIA projections showing demand decoupling from GDP, with EV adoption and efficiency shaping future grid load.

✅ EIA lowers load growth; demand decouples from GDP.

✅ Efficiency and sector shifts depress kWh sales.

✅ EV adoption could revive load and capacity needs.

 

Electricity producers and distributors are in an unusual business. The product they provide is available to all customers instantaneously, literally at the flip of a switch. But the large amount of equipment, both hardware and software to do this takes years to design, site and install.

From a long range planning perspective, just as important as a good engineering design is an accurate sales projections. For the US electric utility industry the most authoritative electricity demand projec-tions come from the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). EIA's compre-hensive reports combine econometric analysis with judgment calls on social and economic trends like the adoption rate of new technologies that could affect future electricity demand, things like LED light-ing and battery powered cars, and the rise of renewables overtaking coal in generation.

Before the Great Recession almost a decade ago, the EIA projected annual growth in US electricity production at roughly 1.5 percent per year. After the Great Recession began, the EIA lowered its projections of US electricity consumption growth to below 1 percent. Actual growth has been closer to zero. While the EIA did not antici-pate the last recession or its aftermath, we cannot fault them on that.

After the event, though, the EIA also trimmed its estimates of economic growth. For the 2015-2030 period it now predicts 2.1 percent economic and 0.3 percent electricity growth, down from previously projections of 2.7 percent and 1.3 percent respectively. (See Figures 1 and 2.)



 

Table 1. EIA electric generation projections by year of forecast (kWh billions)

 


 

Table 2. EIA forecast of GDP by year of forecast (billion 2009 $)

Back in 2007, the EIA figured that every one percent increase in economic activity required a 0.48 percent in-crease in electric generation to support it. By 2017, the EIA calculated that a 1 percent growth in economic activity now only required a 0.14 percent increase in electric output. What accounts for such a downgrade or disconnect between electricity usage and economic growth? And what factors might turn the numbers 
around?

First, the US economy lost energy intensive heavy industry like smelting, steel mills and refineries; patterns in China's electricity sector highlight how industrial shifts can reshape power demand. A more service oriented economy (think health care) relies more heavily on the movement of data or information and uses far less power than a manufacturing-oriented economy.

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Second, internet shopping has hurt so-called "brick and mortar" retailers. Despite the departure of heavy industry, in years past a burgeoning US commercial sector increased its demand and usage of electricity to offset the industrial decline. But not anymore. Energy efficiency measures as well as per-haps greater concern about global warming and greenhouse gas emissions and have cut into electricity sales. “Do more with less” has the right ring to it.

But there may be other components to the ongoing decline in electricity usage. Academic studies show that electricity usage seems to increase with income along an S curve, and flattens out after a certain income level. That is, if you earn $1 billion per year you do not (or cannot) use ten times a much electricity as someone earning only $100 million.

But people at typical, middle income levels increase or decrease electricity usage when incomes rise or fall. The squeeze on middle income families was discussed often in the late presidential campaign. In recent decades an increasing percentage of income has gone to a small percentage of the population at the top of the income scale. This trend probably accounts for some weakness in residential sales. This suggests that government policy addressing income inequality would also boost electricity sales.

Population growth affects demand for electricity as well as the economy as a whole. The EIA has made few changes in its projections, showing 0.7 percent per year population growth in 2015- 2030 in both the 2007 and 2017 forecasts. Recent studies, however, have shown a drop in the birth rate to record lows. More troubling, from a national health perspective is that the average age of death may have stopped rising. Those two factors point to lower population growth, especially if the government also restricts immi-gration. Thus, the US may be approaching a period of rather modest population growth.

All of the above factors point to minimal sales growth for electricity producers in the US--perhaps even lower than the seemingly conservative EIA estimates. But the cloud on the horizon has a silver lining in the shape of an electric car. Both the United Kingdom and France have set dates to end of production of automobiles with internal combustion engines. Several European car makers have declared that 20 percent of their output will be electric vehicles by the early 2020s. If we adopt automobiles powered by electricity and not gasoline or diesel, electricity sales would increase by one third. For the power indus-try, electric vehicles represent the next big thing.

We don’t pretend to know how electric car sales will progress. But assume vehicle turnover rates re-main at the current 7 percent per year and electric cars account for 5 percent of sales in the first five years (as op-posed to 1 percent now), 20 percent in the next five years and 50 percent in the third five year period. Wildly optimistic assumptions? Maybe. By 2030, electric cars would constitute 28 percent of the vehicle fleet. They would add about 10 percent to kilowatt hour sales by that date, assuming that battery efficiencies do not improved by then. Those added sales would require increased electric generation output, with low-emissions sources expected to cover almost all the growth globally. They would also raise long term growth rates for 2015-2030 from the present 0.3 percent to 1.0 percent. The slow upturn in demand should give the electric companies time to gear up so to speak.

In the meantime, weather will continue to play a big role in electricity consumption. Record heat-induced demand peaks are being set here in the US even as surging global demand puts power systems under strain worldwide.

Can we discern a pattern in weather conditions 15 years out? Maybe we can, but that is one topic we don’t expect a government agency to tackle in public right now. Meantime, weather will affect sales more than anything else and we cannot predict the weather. Or can we?

 

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Minister approves 30-megawatt wind farm expansion in Eastern Kings

Eastern Kings Wind Farm Expansion advances P.E.I. renewable energy with seven new wind turbines, environmental assessment, wildlife monitoring of birds and bats, and community consultation to double output to 30 MW for domestic consumption.

 

Key Points

A P.E.I. project adding seven turbines for 30 MW, under 17 conditions, with wildlife monitoring and community oversight.

✅ Seven new turbines, larger than existing units

✅ 17 conditions, monthly compliance reporting

✅ Two-year wildlife study for birds and bats

 

A proposal to expand an existing wind farm in eastern P.E.I. has been given the go-ahead, according to P.E.I.’s Department of Environment, Water and Climate Change, as related grid work like a new transmission line progresses in the region.

Minister Natalie Jameson approved the P.E.I. Energy Corporation’s Eastern Kings Wind Farm expansion project, the province announced in a release Wednesday afternoon, as Atlantic Canada advances other renewable initiatives like tidal power to diversify supply.

The project will be subject to 17 conditions, which were drawn from a review of the 80 responses the province received from the public on the proposed Eastern Kings Wind Farm expansion.

The corporation must provide a summary on the status of each condition to the department on a monthly basis.

“This decision balances the needs of people, communities, wellness and the environment,” Jameson said in the release.

“It allows this renewable energy project to proceed and reduce greenhouse [gas] emissions that cause climate change while mitigating the project’s impact to the Island’s ecosystem.”

The P.E.I. Energy Corporation wants to double the output of its Eastern Kings Wind Farm with the installation of seven wind turbines between the communities of Elmira and East Point to develop 30 megawatts of wind power for domestic consumption, according to the minister’s impact assessment, aligning with regional moves to expand wind and solar projects across Atlantic Canada.

The new turbines are expected to be larger than the existing 10 at the site, even as regional utilities study major grid changes to integrate more renewables.

Project must comply with conditions

In February, the province said it would identify any specific questions or concerns it felt needed to be addressed in the submissions, according to Greg Wilson, manager of environmental land management for the province, while some advocate for independent electricity planning to guide such decisions.

Public feedback closed in January, after an earlier extension to wait for a supplemental report on birds and bats.

The corporation needs to comply with all conditions – such as monitoring environmental impact, setting up an environmental management plan and creating a committee to address concerns – listed in the release on Wednesday, amid calls from environmental advocates to reduce biomass use in electricity generation.

A condition in the release suggests representatives from L’nuey, the Souris and Area Wildlife Branch, the Rural Municipality of Eastern Kings and local residents to make up the committee.

The corporation will also need to conduct a study over two years after construction to look at the impact on bats and birds, and implement a protocol to report deaths of birds to federal and provincial authorities.

According to Canada Energy Regulator, roughly 98 per cent of power generated on P.E.I. comes from wind farms. It also said there were 203 megawatts installed on P.E.I. as of 2018, and the majority of energy consumed on the Island comes from New Brunswick from a mix of nuclear, fossil fuels and hydroelectricity, while in Nova Scotia, the utility has increased biomass generation as part of its supply mix.

 

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New Jersey, New York suspending utility shut-offs amid coronavirus pandemic

NY & NJ Utility Shutoff Moratorium suspends power, heat, and water disconnections amid COVID-19, as PSEG, Con Edison, Avangrid, and American Water pledge relief, supporting vulnerable customers with payment plans and health protections.

 

Key Points

A temporary pause on power, heat, and water shutoffs during COVID-19, as major utilities act to protect affected customers.

✅ Applies to power, gas, and water; restores prior shutoffs.

✅ Voluntary utility action; no PSC order required in NY.

✅ Initial moratorium runs through April; payment plans available.

 

New Jersey and New York utilities will keep the power, heat and water on for all customers in response to the coronavirus emergency, both states announced Friday.

Major utilities have agreed to suspend utility shut-offs, a particular concern for people who may be out of work and cannot afford to pay their bills.

“No utility can turn off service … if a person cannot pay their bill as a result of responding to this virus situation,” said New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo during a press conference Friday.

Utilities in New York have voluntarily agreed to this measure, according to the governor’s office, reflecting a broader state moratorium on disconnections during emergencies. No order from the Public Service Commission is expected.

With growing concerns about the economic impacts of a virtual shutdown of businesses and large events to curtail the spread of the novel coronavirus, advocates are increasingly pushing financial relief for families amid pandemic energy insecurity pressures. There’s a campaign in New York to suspend evictions and foreclosures, with growing political support. A similar call has gone out in New Jersey.

As the weather warms, shut-offs of electric and gas service due to nonpayment tend to pick up. If people are quarantined or out of work due to a widespread economic slowdown, some advocates say they shouldn’t have to worry about having the lights or heat turned off, especially as examples of unpaid utility bills straining cities have emerged elsewhere.

“We recognize that customers may experience financial difficulty as a result of the outbreak, whether they or a family member fall ill, are required to quarantine, or because their income is otherwise affected,” said Michael Jennings, a spokesperson for Public Service Enterprise Group — the parent company of Public Service Electric and Gas Company, New Jersey’s largest utility — in a statement.

The company’s policy will be in place at least through the end of April, as will Atlantic City Electric’s, and other utilities such as PG&E's pandemic response included a similar moratorium during the outbreak.

“Curtailing shut-offs is good public policy to make sure New Jersey residents aren’t left in the lurch as they’re dealing with coronavirus,” said Eric Miller, director of the Natural Resources Defense Council’s New Jersey energy policy program. “Not having a safe place to be because you don't have electricity, gas or water doesn’t do anything to help address the coronavirus.”

Water service has also drawn attention. Major cities, including Atlanta and Detroit, have suspended shut-offs to ensure residents have water to wash their hands, while Texas utilities waived fees to support customers as well. Seattle suspended water and electric shutoffs.

American Water, which operates in 16 states and has 650,000 customers in New Jersey and 350,000 in New York, has halted any shutoffs amid the coronavirus pandemic and will also restore service, and similarly Hydro One reconnected customers in Canada to maintain access. New York City does not shut off service for nonpayment, but does issue liens against people’s property.

“Everyone, regardless as to what industry, has to have a heightened responsibility that’s encompassed in compassion and take everything into consideration,” New Jersey state Sen. Teresa Ruiz (D-Essex) told POLITICO. “Now is not the time to be worrying about late payments or bills. We need to get past this, hopefully, to see what we’re facing and then deal with other things.”

PSEG Long Island, a subsidiary of PSEG that handles day-to-day operations for the Long Island Power Authority, was the first New York utility to announce it is also suspending shutoffs before the governor’s announcement. The moratorium will remain in place through the end of April.

Rich Berkley, with the Public Utility Law Project, which advocates for low-income customers in New York, said he’s been in touch with state officials to make sure the issue of utility bills is considered during the pandemic. New York already has requirements for utilities to offer deferred payment agreements before shutting off service, he noted.

“The state has to act to protect the most vulnerable households first,” he said. “To the extent that the state is declaring areas of emergency, this should be part of the remedies the state deploys.”

But he noted that not everyone will have trouble paying their utility bills if they’re under quarantine.

“Given the background of a collapsing stock and equity market, all of which matters to the utilities, and shifts in electricity demand during COVID-19, we have to be careful about blanket moratoriums [on shutoffs] in New York,” Berkley said.

Con Edison, the largest utility in the state serving most of New York City, had already informed the Department of Public Service it will suspend all shut-offs in the one-mile radius New Rochelle containment area, spokesperson Michael Clendenin said on Thursday. The moratorium on shutoffs now includes its entire New York City and Westchester County territory.

Avangrid, which owns New York State Electric & Gas and Rochester Gas & Electric, serving broad swathes of upstate New York, will suspend shut-offs due to unpaid bills for 30 days, spokesperson Michael Jamison said.

 

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California Gets $500M to Upgrade Power Grid

California Grid Modernization Funding will upgrade transmission and distribution, boost grid resilience, enable renewable energy integration, expand energy storage, and deploy smart grid controls statewide with over $500 million in federal infrastructure investment.

 

Key Points

Federal support to harden California's grid, integrate renewables, add storage, and deploy smart upgrades for reliability.

✅ Strengthens transmission and distribution for wildfire and heat resilience

✅ Integrates solar and wind with storage and advanced grid controls

✅ Deploys smart meters, DER management, and modern cybersecurity

 

California has recently been awarded over $500 million in federal funds to significantly improve and modernize its power grid. This substantial investment marks a pivotal step in addressing the state’s ongoing energy challenges, enhancing grid resilience, and supporting its ambitious climate goals. The funding, announced by federal and state officials, is set to bolster California’s efforts to upgrade its electrical infrastructure, integrate renewable energy sources, and ensure a more reliable and sustainable energy system for its residents.

California's power grid has faced numerous challenges in recent years, including extreme weather events, high energy demand, and an increasing reliance on renewable energy sources. The state's electrical infrastructure has struggled to keep pace with these demands, leading to concerns about reliability, efficiency, and the capacity to handle new energy technologies. The recent federal funding is a critical component of a broader strategy to address these issues and prepare the grid for future demands.

The $500 million in federal funds is part of a larger initiative to support energy infrastructure projects across the United States, including a Washington state grant that strengthens regional infrastructure. The investment aims to modernize aging grid systems, improve energy efficiency, and enhance the integration of renewable energy sources. For California, this funding represents a significant opportunity to address several key areas of concern in its power grid.

One of the primary objectives of the funding is to enhance the resilience of the power grid. California has experienced a series of extreme weather events, including wildfires and heatwaves, driven in part by climate change impacts across the U.S., which have put considerable strain on the electrical infrastructure. The new investment will support projects designed to strengthen the grid’s ability to withstand and recover from these events. This includes upgrading infrastructure to make it more robust and less susceptible to damage from natural disasters.

Another key focus of the funding is the integration of renewable energy sources. California is a leader in the adoption of solar and wind energy, and the state has set ambitious goals for increasing its use of clean energy. However, integrating these variable energy sources into the grid presents technical challenges, including ensuring a stable and reliable power supply. The federal funds will be used to develop and deploy advanced technologies that can better manage and store renewable energy, such as battery storage systems, improving the overall efficiency and effectiveness of the grid.

In addition to resilience and renewable integration, the funding will also support efforts to modernize grid infrastructure. This includes upgrading transmission and distribution systems, implementing smarter electricity infrastructure and smart grid technologies, and enhancing grid management and control systems. These improvements are essential for creating a more flexible and responsive power grid that can meet the evolving needs of California’s energy landscape.

The investment in grid modernization also aligns with California’s broader climate goals. The state has set targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase the use of clean energy sources as it navigates keeping the lights on during its energy transition. By improving the power grid and supporting the integration of renewable energy, California is making progress toward achieving these goals while also creating jobs and stimulating economic growth.

The allocation of federal funds comes at a crucial time for California. The state has faced significant challenges in recent years, including power outages, energy reliability issues, and increasing energy costs that make repairing California's grid especially complex today. The new funding is expected to address many of these concerns by supporting critical infrastructure improvements and ensuring that the state’s power grid can meet current and future demands.

Federal and state officials have expressed strong support for the funding and its potential impact. The investment is seen as a major step forward in creating a more resilient and sustainable energy system for California. It is also expected to serve as a model for other states facing similar challenges in modernizing their power grids and integrating renewable energy sources.

The federal funding is part of a broader push to address infrastructure needs across the country. The Biden administration has prioritized investment in energy infrastructure, including a $34 million DOE initiative supporting grid improvements, as part of its broader agenda to combat climate change and build a more sustainable economy. The funding for California’s power grid is a reflection of this commitment and an example of how federal resources can support state and local efforts to improve infrastructure and address pressing energy challenges.

In summary, California’s receipt of over $500 million in federal funds represents a significant investment in the state’s power grid. The funding will support efforts to enhance grid resilience, integrate renewable energy sources, and modernize infrastructure. As California continues to face challenges related to extreme weather, energy reliability, and climate goals, this investment will play a crucial role in building a more reliable, efficient, and sustainable energy system. The initiative also highlights the importance of federal support in addressing infrastructure needs and advancing environmental and economic goals.

 

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The Need for Electricity During the COVID-19 Pandemic

US utilities COVID-19 resilience shows electric utilities maintaining demand stability, reaffirming earnings guidance, and accessing the bond market for low-cost financing, as Dominion, NextEra, and Con Edison manage recession risks.

 

Key Points

It is the sector's capacity to sustain demand, financing access, and guidance despite pandemic recession pressures.

✅ Bond market access locks in low-cost, long-term debt

✅ Stable residential load offsets industrial weakness

✅ Guidance largely reaffirmed by major utilities

 

Dominion Energy (D) expects "incremental residential load" gains, consistent with COVID-19 electricity demand patterns, as a result of COVID-19 fallout. Southern Company CEO Tom Fanning says his company is "nowhere near" a need to review earnings guidance because of a potential recession, in a region where efficiency and demand response can help level electricity demand for years.

Sempra Energy (SRE) has reaffirmed earnings per share guidance for 2020 and 2021, as well timing for the sale of assets in Chile and Peru, and peers such as Duke Energy's renewables plan have reaffirmed capital investments to deliver cleaner energy and economic growth. And Xcel Energy (XEL) says it still "hasn’t seen material impact on its business."

Several electric utilities have demonstrated ability to tap the bond market, in line with utility sector trends in recent years, to lock in low-cost financing, as America moves toward broader electrification, despite ongoing turmoil. Their ranks include Dominion Energy, renewable energy leader NextEra Energy (NEE) and Consolidated Edison (ED), which last week sold $1 billion of 30-year bonds at a coupon rate of just 3.95 percent.

It’s still early days for US COVID-19 fallout. And most electric companies have yet to issue guidance. That’s understandable, since so much is still unknown about the virus and the damage it will ultimately do to human health and the global economy. But so far, the US power industry is showing typical resilience in tough times, as it coordinates closely with federal partners to maintain reliability.

Will it last? We won’t know for certain until there’s a lot more data. NextEra is usually first to report its Q1 earnings reports and detailed guidance. But that’s not expected until April 23. And companies may delay financials further, should the virus and efforts to control it impede collection and analysis of data, and as they address electricity shut-off risks affecting customers.

 

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Leading Offshore Wind Conference to Launch National Job Fair

OSW CareerMatch Offshore Wind Job Fair convenes industry leaders, supply chain employers, and skilled candidates at IPF 2020 in Providence, Rhode Island, spotlighting workforce development, training programs, and near-term hiring for U.S. offshore wind projects.

 

Key Points

An IPF 2020 job fair connecting offshore wind employers, advancing workforce development in Providence, RI.

✅ National job fair at IPF 2020, Providence, RI

✅ Connects supply chain employers with skilled candidates

✅ Includes a workforce development and education summit

 

The Business Network for Offshore Wind, the leading non-profit advocate for U.S. offshore wind at the state, federal and global levels, amid a U.S. grid warning about coronavirus impacts, will host its seventh annual International Partnership Forum (IPF) on April 21-24, 2020 in Providence, Rhode Island. 

New this year: the first-ever national offshore wind industry job fair plus a half-day workforce development summit, in partnership with Skills for Rhode Island’s Future. The OSW CareerMatch, will showcase jobs at top-tier companies seeking to grow the workforce of the future, informed by young people's interest in electricity careers, and recruit qualified candidates. The Offshore Wind Workforce Development and Education Summit, an invitation-only event, will bring together educators, stakeholders, and industry leaders to address current energy training programs, identify industry employment needs, required skillsets, and how organizations can fulfill these near-term needs. CareerMatch will take place 8:30 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. on Tuesday, April 21, and the Workforce Summit from 12:30 p.m. to 4:00 p.m., both at the Rhode Island Convention Center. 

“The U.S. offshore wind industry has reached the stage that, in order to successfully develop and meet new project demands, will require an available and qualified workforce,” said Liz Burdock, CEO and president of the Business Network for Offshore Wind, noting worker safety concerns in other energy sectors. “This first-ever national Job Fair will allow top-tier supply chain companies to connect with skilled individuals to discuss projects that are going on as they speak.” 

“Hosting the first-of-its-kind offshore wind energy job fair in The Ocean State is apropos,” said Nina Pande, executive director of Skills for Rhode Island’s Future, as future of work investments accelerate across the electricity sector. “Our organization is thrilled to have the unique opportunity to help convene talent at OSW CareerMatch to engage with the employers across the offshore wind supply chain.”

The annual IPF conference is the premier event for the offshore wind supply chain, which is now projected to be a $70 billion revenue opportunity through 2030. Fully developing this supply chain will foster local economic growth, provide thousands of jobs, adapt to shifts like working from home electricity demand, and help offshore wind energy meet its potential. If fully built out worldwide, offshore wind could power 18 times the world’s current electricity needs.    

The exhibit and conference sells out every year and is again on track to draw over 2,500 industry professionals representing over 575 companies, all focused on sharing valuable insights on how to move the emerging U.S. wind industry forward, including operational resilience such as on-site staffing plans during the outbreak. The full conference schedule may be seen online here. More details, including special guest speakers, will be announced soon.
 

 

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