Canada will need more electricity to hit net-zero: IEA report


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Canada Clean Electricity Expansion is urged by the IEA to meet net-zero targets, scaling non-emitting generation, electrification, EV demand, and grid integration across provinces to decarbonize industry, buildings, and transport while ensuring reliability and affordability.

 

Key Points

An IEA-backed pathway for Canada to scale non-emitting power, electrification, and grid links to meet net-zero goals.

✅ Double or triple clean generation to replace fossil fuels

✅ Integrate provincial grids to decarbonize dependent regions

✅ Manage EV and heating loads with reliability and affordability

 

Canada will need more electricity capacity if it wants to hit its climate targets, and cleaning up Canada's electricity will be critical, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The report offers mainly a rosy picture of Canada's overall federal energy policy. But, the IEA draws attention to Canada's increasing future electricity demands, and ultimately, calls on Canada to leverage its non-emitting energy potential and expand renewable energy to hit its climate targets.  

"Canada's wealth of clean electricity and its innovative spirit can help drive a secure and affordable transformation of its energy system and help realize its ambitious goals," stated Fatih Birol, the IEA executive director, in a news release.

The IEA notes that Canada has one of the cleanest energy grids globally, with 83 per cent of electricity coming from non-emitting sources in 2020. But this reflects nationwide progress in electricity to date; the report warns this is not a reason for Canada to rest on its laurels. More electricity will be needed to displace fossil fuels if Canada wants to hit its 2030 targets, the report states, and "even deeper cuts" will be required to reach net-zero by 2050.

"Perhaps more significantly, however, Canada will need to ensure sufficient new clean generation capacity to meet the sizeable levels of electrification that its net-zero targets imply."

Investing in new coal, oil and gas projects must stop to hit climate goals, global energy agency says
The Liberals have promised to create a 100 percent net-zero-emitting electricity system by 2035, with regulating oil and gas emissions and electric car sales as part of the plan; by then, every new light-duty vehicle sold in Canada will be a zero-emission vehicle. The switch from gas guzzlers to plug-in electric vehicles will create new pressures on Canada's electrical grid, as will any turn away from fossil natural gas for home heating.

To meet these challenges, the IEA warns, Canada would need to double or triple the power generated from non-emitting sources compared to today, a shift whose cost could reach $1.4 trillion according to the Canadian Gas Association. 

"Such a shift will require significant regulatory action," the report states, highlighting the need for climate policy for electricity grids to guide implementation, and that will require the federal government to work closely with provinces and territories that control power generation and distribution.

The report notes that the further integration of territorial and provincial electrical grids could allow fossil fuel-dependent provinces, like Alberta, to decarbonize and electrify their economies.

The report, entitled Canada 2022 Energy Policy Review, offers what it calls an "in-depth" look at the commitments Canada has made to transform its energy policy. Since the IEA conducted its last review in 2015, Canada has committed to cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030 and achieving net-zero by 2050 under an extended national target.

The IEA is well-known for the production of its annual World Energy Outlook. The Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental organization provides analysis, data, and policy recommendations to promote global energy security and sustainability. Canada is a part of the intergovernmental body, which also conducts peer reviews of its members' energy policy.


Oil and gas emissions rising
Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson responded to the report in the IEA news release.

"This report acknowledges Canada's ambitious efforts and historic investments to develop pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and ensure a transition that aligns with our shared objective of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius," Wilkinson's statement read.

The report notes that — despite that objective — absolute emissions from Canadian oil and gas extraction went up 26 per cent between 2000 and 2019, largely from increased production.

Minister of Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson responds to a question at a news conference after the federal cabinet was sworn in, in Ottawa, on Oct. 26, 2021. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press)
"Canada will need to reconcile future growth in oil sands production with increasingly strict greenhouse gas requirements," the report states.

On the plus side, the IEA found emissions per barrel of oilsands crude have decreased by 20 per cent in the last decade from technical and operational improvements.

The improving carbon efficiency of the oilsands is a "trend that is expected to continue at even higher rates," said Ben Brunnen, vice-president of oilsands, fiscal and economic policy at the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

That may become important, the IEA report notes, as energy investors and buyers look for low-carbon assets and more countries adopt net-zero policies.

Further innovation, such as carbon capture and storage, could help to turn things around for Canada's oil patch, the report says. The Liberals have also said they will place a hard cap on oil and gas emissions from production, but that does not include the burning of the fossil fuels. 

In 2021, the IEA released a report that determined to achieve net-zero by 2050, among many steps, investments needed to end in coal mines, oil and gas wells. Thursday's report, however, made no mention of that, which disappointed at least one environmental group.

"A glaring omission was that this assessment says nothing about production. We know that the most important thing we can do is to stop using and producing oil and gas," said Julia Levin, a senior climate and energy program manager at Environmental Defence.

"And yet that was absent from this report, and that really is a glaring omission, which is completely out of line with their [the IEA's] own work."

 

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Canada Faces Critical Crunch in Electrical Supply

Canada Electricity Supply Crunch underscores grid reliability risks, aging infrastructure, and rising demand, pushing upgrades in transmission, energy storage, smart grid technology, and renewable energy integration to protect industry, consumers, and climate goals.

 

Key Points

A nationwide power capacity shortfall stressing the grid, raising outage risks and slowing the renewable transition.

✅ Demand growth and aging infrastructure strain transmission capacity

✅ Smart grid, storage, and interties improve reliability and flexibility

✅ Accelerated renewables and efficiency reduce fossil fuel reliance

 

Canada, known for its vast natural resources and robust energy sector, is now confronting a significant challenge: a crunch in electrical supply. A recent report from EnergyNow.ca highlights the growing concerns over Canada’s electricity infrastructure, revealing that the country is facing a critical shortage that could impact both consumers and industries alike. This development raises pressing questions about the future of Canada’s energy landscape and its implications for the nation’s economy and environmental goals.

The Current Electrical Supply Dilemma

According to EnergyNow.ca, Canada’s electrical supply is under unprecedented strain due to several converging factors. One major issue is the rapid pace of economic and population growth, particularly in urban centers. This expansion has increased demand for electricity, putting additional pressure on an already strained grid. Compounding this issue are aging infrastructure and a lack of sufficient investment in modernizing the electrical grid to meet current and future needs, with interprovincial frictions such as the B.C. challenge to Alberta's export restrictions further complicating coordination.

The report also points out that Canada’s reliance on certain types of energy sources, including fossil fuels, exacerbates the problem. While the country has made strides in renewable energy, including developments in clean grids and batteries across provinces, the transition has not kept pace with the rising demand for electricity. This imbalance highlights a crucial gap in Canada’s energy strategy that needs urgent attention.

Economic and Social Implications

The shortage in electrical supply has significant economic and social implications. For businesses, particularly those in energy-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and technology, the risk of power outages or unreliable service can lead to operational disruptions and financial losses. Increased energy costs due to supply constraints could also affect profit margins and competitiveness on both domestic and international fronts, with electricity exports at risk amid trade tensions.

Consumers are not immune to the impact of this electrical supply crunch. The potential for rolling blackouts or increased energy prices, as debates over electricity rates and innovation continue nationwide, can strain household budgets and affect overall quality of life. Additionally, inconsistent power supply can affect essential services, including healthcare facilities and emergency services, highlighting the critical nature of reliable electricity for public safety and well-being.

Investment and Infrastructure Upgrades

Addressing the electrical supply crunch requires significant investment in infrastructure and technology, and recent tariff threats have boosted support for Canadian energy projects that could accelerate these efforts. The EnergyNow.ca report underscores the need for modernizing the electrical grid to enhance capacity and resilience. This includes upgrading transmission lines, improving energy storage solutions, and expanding the integration of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power.

Investing in smart grid technology is also essential. Smart grids use digital communication and advanced analytics to optimize electricity distribution, detect outages, and manage demand more effectively. By adopting these technologies, Canada can better balance supply and demand, reduce the risk of blackouts, and improve overall efficiency in energy use.

Renewable Energy Transition

Transitioning to renewable energy sources is a critical component of addressing the electrical supply crunch. While Canada has made progress in this area, the pace of change needs to accelerate under the new Clean Electricity Regulations for 2050 that set long-term targets. Expanding the deployment of wind, solar, and hydroelectric power can help diversify the energy mix and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, supporting innovations in energy storage and grid management will enhance the reliability and sustainability of renewable energy.

The EnergyNow.ca report highlights several ongoing initiatives and projects aimed at increasing renewable energy capacity. However, these efforts must be scaled up and supported by both public policy and private investment to ensure that Canada can meet its energy needs and climate goals.

Policy and Strategic Planning

Effective policy and strategic planning are crucial for addressing the electrical supply challenges, with an anticipated electricity market reshuffle in at least one province signaling change ahead. Government action is needed to support infrastructure investment, incentivize renewable energy adoption, and promote energy efficiency measures. Collaborative efforts between federal, provincial, and municipal governments, along with private sector stakeholders, will be key to developing a comprehensive strategy for managing Canada’s electrical supply.

Public awareness and engagement are also important. Educating consumers about energy conservation practices and encouraging the adoption of energy-efficient technologies can contribute to reducing overall demand and alleviating some of the pressure on the electrical grid.

Conclusion

Canada’s electrical supply crunch is a pressing issue that demands immediate and sustained action. The growing demand for electricity, coupled with aging infrastructure and a lagging transition to renewable energy, poses significant challenges for the country’s economy and daily life. Addressing this issue will require substantial investment in infrastructure, advancements in technology, and effective policy measures. By taking a proactive and collaborative approach, Canada can navigate this crisis and build a more resilient and sustainable energy future.

 

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Diesel Prices Return to Pre-Ukrainian Conflict Levels

France Diesel Prices at Pre-Ukraine Levels reflect energy market stabilization as supply chains adapt and subsidies help; easing fuel costs, inflation, and logistics burdens for households, transport firms, and the wider economy.

 

Key Points

They mark normalization as oil supply stabilizes, easing fuel costs and logistics expenses for consumers and firms.

✅ Lower transport and logistics operating costs

✅ Softer inflation and improved household budgets

✅ Market stabilization amid adjusted oil supply chains

 

In a significant development for French consumers and businesses alike, diesel prices in France have recently fallen back to levels last seen before the Ukrainian conflict began, mirroring European gas prices returning to pre-war levels across the region. This drop comes as a relief to many who have been grappling with volatile energy costs and their impact on the cost of living and business operations. The return to lower diesel prices is a noteworthy shift in the energy landscape, with implications for the French economy, transportation sector, and broader European market.

Context of Rising Diesel Prices

The onset of the Ukrainian conflict in early 2022 triggered a dramatic increase in global energy prices, including diesel. The conflict's disruption of supply chains, coupled with sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports, contributed to a steep rise in fuel prices across Europe, prompting the EU to weigh emergency electricity price measures to shield consumers. For France, this meant that diesel prices soared to unprecedented levels, putting significant pressure on consumers and businesses that rely heavily on diesel for transportation and logistics.

The impact was felt across various sectors. Transportation companies faced higher operational costs, which were often passed down to consumers in the form of increased prices for goods and services. Additionally, higher fuel costs contributed to broader inflationary pressures, with EU inflation hitting lower-income households hardest, affecting household budgets and overall economic stability.

Recent Price Trends and Market Adjustments

The recent decline in diesel prices in France is a welcome reversal from the peak levels experienced during the height of the conflict. Several factors have contributed to this price reduction. Firstly, there has been a stabilization of global oil markets as geopolitical tensions have somewhat eased and supply chains have adjusted to new realities. The gradual return of Russian oil to global markets, albeit under complex sanctions and trading arrangements, has also played a role in moderating prices.

Moreover, France's strategic reserves and diversified energy sources have helped cushion the impact of global price fluctuations. The French government has also implemented measures to stabilize energy prices, including subsidies and tax adjustments, and a new electricity pricing scheme to satisfy EU concerns, which have helped alleviate some of the financial pressure on consumers.

Implications for the French Economy

The return to pre-conflict diesel price levels brings several positive implications for the French economy. For consumers, the decrease in fuel prices means lower transportation costs, which can ease inflationary pressures and improve disposable income, and, alongside the EDF electricity price deal, reduce overall utility burdens for households. This is particularly beneficial for households with long commutes or those relying on diesel-powered vehicles.

For businesses, especially those in the transportation and logistics sectors, the drop in diesel prices translates into reduced operational costs. This can help lower the cost of goods and services, potentially leading to lower prices for consumers and improved profitability for businesses. In a broader sense, stabilized fuel prices can contribute to overall economic stability and growth, as lower energy costs can support consumer spending and business investment.

Environmental and Policy Considerations

While the decrease in diesel prices is advantageous in the short term, it also raises questions about long-term energy policy and environmental impact, with the recent crisis framed as a wake-up call for Europe to accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels. Diesel, as a fossil fuel, continues to pose environmental challenges, including greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. The drop in prices might inadvertently discourage investments in cleaner energy alternatives, such as electric and hybrid vehicles, which are crucial for achieving long-term sustainability goals.

In response, there is a growing call for continued investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency measures. France has been actively pursuing policies to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and increase the adoption of cleaner technologies, amid ongoing EU electricity reform debates with Germany. The government’s support for green energy initiatives and incentives for low-emission vehicles will be essential in balancing short-term benefits with long-term environmental objectives.

Conclusion

The recent return of French diesel prices to pre-Ukrainian conflict levels marks a significant shift in the energy market, offering relief to both consumers and businesses. While this decline brings immediate financial benefits and supports economic stability, it also underscores the ongoing need for a strategic approach to energy policy and environmental sustainability. As France navigates the evolving energy landscape, the focus will need to remain on fostering a transition towards cleaner energy sources while managing the economic and environmental impacts of fuel price fluctuations.

 

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U.S. Grid overseer issues warning on Coronavirus

NERC COVID-19 Grid Security Alert urges utilities to update business continuity plans, assess supply chain risk, and harden cybersecurity against spearphishing, social engineering, and remote-work vulnerabilities to protect the U.S. power grid and critical infrastructure.

 

Key Points

A notice urging U.S. utilities to fortify pandemic continuity, secure supply chains, and enhance cybersecurity.

✅ Mandates updates to business continuity and pandemic readiness plans

✅ Flags supply chain risks for PPE, electronics, chemicals, and logistics

✅ Warns of spearphishing, social engineering, VPN and remote-work threats

 

The top U.S. grid security monitor urged power utilities to prepare for the new coronavirus in a rare alert yesterday, adding to a chorus of warnings from federal and private organizations.

The North American Electric Reliability Corp. called for power providers to update business continuity plans in case of a pandemic outbreak and weigh the need to prioritize construction or maintenance projects, including updates on major projects like BC Hydro's Site C, while the COVID-19 virus continues to spread.

NERC is requiring electric utilities to answer questions on their readiness for a possible pandemic, including potential staffing strategies such as on-site sequestering, by March 20, an unusual step that underscores the severity of the threat to U.S. power systems.

The Electricity Information Sharing and Analysis Center, NERC's hub for getting the word out on dangers and vulnerabilities for the grid, also sent out an "all-points bulletin" on Feb. 5 addressing the coronavirus outbreak. That nonpublic document covered "potential supply chain issues stemming from a manufacturing slowdown in Asia," NERC spokeswoman Kimberly Mielcarek said.

Among offering basic hygiene and awareness recommendations, NERC's latest alert also encourages utilities to take stock of resources with supply chains affected by the virus. Because "China and nearby southeast Asian nations" have been impacted, NERC said, the supply chain hits will likely include "electronics, personal protective equipment and sanitation supplies, chemicals, and raw materials." The nonprofit grid overseer also warned of global transportation disruptions.

NERC also recommended utilities be on the lookout for cyberattacks taking advantage of the panic and using "coronavirus-themed opportunistic social engineering attacks" to hack into power companies' networks. Social engineering attacks are when hackers use social interactions to manipulate targets into giving up sensitive information.

"Spearphishing, watering hole, and other disinformation tactics are commonly used to exploit public interest in significant events," the alert said.

Electric utility representatives said they're working on or have already completed some of the steps outlined in NERC's alert, though nuclear plant workers have cited a lack of precautions in some cases.

"At this point, many of our members are activating and/or reviewing their business continuity and preparedness plans to ensure that operations and infrastructure are properly supported," said Tobias Sellier, director of media relations for the American Public Power Association, which represents around 1,400 electric utilities.

The power providers are also collaborating with other utilities such as "water, wastewater and gas," Sellier said.

Stephen Bell, senior director of media and public relations at the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, said his group's members "have already taken a number of steps recommended by NERC" while continuing to maintain operations.

"Co-ops continue working with local, state and federal stakeholders to remain vigilant and prepared. These preparations include more frequent communications to key stakeholders, updating business continuity plans and monitoring new information from public health officials," said Bell.

Last week the Electricity Subsector Coordinating Council (ESCC), a panel of government and industry officials charged with responding to power-sector emergencies, scheduled a conference call discussing how to protect the grid from disruption if the virus infects system operators. Ohio-based utility American Electric Power Co. said it is limiting public visits, has created a high-level response team and is working to ensure operations can continue, while reinforcing downed power line safety, if the virus keeps spreading (Energywire, March 6).

Scott Aaronson, vice president for security and preparedness of the Edison Electric Institute, which represents major investor-owned utilities, said that the electric sector practices "contingency planning" to deal with unusual situations such as the coronavirus. That means that while the type of emergency may be new, dealing with an emergency situation is not, he said. Aaronson added that many of NERC's recommendations are based on what companies are already doing.

"We have heightened awareness given the circumstances, and we have messaging to employees all the way up and down the chain — from CEOs to frontline workers — that: given this time of heightened awareness and potential vulnerability, we have to practice hygiene both of the personal and cyber variety," said Aaronson.

Aaronson said that the ESCC had another call this week with the departments of Energy and Homeland Security and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to stay on top of the issue.

Hacking concerns
In a cybersecurity event yesterday, Lisa Monaco, co-chair of the Aspen Cybersecurity Group and former homeland security adviser during the Obama administration, warned that the coronavirus should be considered a national security threat.

"Frankly, [pandemic] is the thing that kept me up at night amongst many, many things that kept me up at night for four years in the White House," Monaco said.

Monaco went on to say the virus will strain organizations' IT infrastructure as more employees work remotely and households face higher electricity bills, and lead to "potentially more vulnerabilities for bad actors when it comes to cybersecurity."

On Friday, the DHS's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency released advice on steps that can be taken to lessen the virus's impact on supply chains and cybersecurity, as well as tips for defending against scams exploiting coronavirus fears.

Cybersecurity firms also have been reporting a dramatic increase in spear-phishing attacks, with hackers reportedly using the coronavirus topic as a lure to trick victims into clicking a malicious link. Whether it's hackers aiming at industries susceptible to shipping disruptions, attacking countries like Italy hit particularly hard by the virus or even masquerading as the World Health Organization, cybercriminals are taking full advantage of the crisis, experts say.

Greg Young, vice president of cybersecurity at Trend Micro, said businesses should continue to expect an increase in targeted phishing attacks.

"With a large majority of businesses switching to a work-from-home model and less emphasis on in-person meetings, we also anticipate that malicious actors will start to impersonate digital tools such as 'free' remote conferencing services and other cloud computing software," said Young.

Working from home can be especially risky, as often home networks are less secure than corporate offices, Young said — meaning a hacker aiming to get into an enterprise network could find an "easier attack path" from a home office.

The Department of Energy is asking employees to make sure they can work remotely when needed, even as some agencies set limits with EPA telework policy, including updating security questions and asking those with government-furnished laptops to be sure they have a VPN, or virtual private network, account. In a post added this week to the agency's website, Chief Information Officer Rocky Campione said the department over the next two weeks will be initiating steps to ensure there is adequate network capacity to carry out DOE's work.

"Ensuring the continued operations of the department's many varied missions requires diligence," Campione said.

 

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Energy experts: US electric grid not designed to withstand the impacts of climate change

Summer Power Grid Reliability and Climate Risk drives urgent planning as extreme heat, peak demand, drought, and aging infrastructure strain ERCOT, NERC regions, risking outages without renewables integration and climate-informed grid modeling.

 

Key Points

Assessment of how extreme weather and demand stress the US grid, informing climate-smart planning to reduce outages.

✅ Many operators rely on historical weather, not climate projections

✅ NERC flags elevated blackout risk amid extreme heat and drought

✅ Renewables and storage can boost capacity and cut emissions

 

As heat ramps up ahead of what forecasters say will be a hotter than normal summer, electricity experts and officials are warning that states may not have enough power to meet demand in the coming months. And many of the nation's grid operators are also not taking climate change into account in their planning, despite available grid resilience guidance that could inform upgrades, even as extreme weather becomes more frequent and more severe.

Power operators in the Central US, in their summer readiness report, have already predicted "insufficient firm resources to cover summer peak forecasts." That assessment accounted for historical weather and the latest NOAA outlook that projects for more extreme weather this summer.

But energy experts say that some power grid operators are not considering how the climate crisis is changing our weather — including more frequent extreme events — and that is a problem if the intent is to build a reliable power grid while accelerating investing in carbon-free electricity across markets.

"The reality is the electricity system is old and a lot of the infrastructure was built before we started thinking about climate change," said Romany Webb, a researcher at Columbia University's Sabin Center for Climate Change Law. "It's not designed to withstand the impacts of climate change."

Webb says many power grid operators use historical weather to make investment decisions, rather than the more dire climate projections, simply because they want to avoid the possibility of financial loss, even as climate-related credit risks for nuclear plants are being flagged, for investing in what might happen versus what has already happened. She said it's the wrong approach and it makes the grid vulnerable.

"We have seen a reluctance on the part of many utilities to factor climate change into their planning processes because they say the science around climate change is too uncertain," Webb said. "The reality is we know climate change is happening, we know the impact it has in terms of more severe heatwaves, hurricanes, drought, with recent hydropower constraints in British Columbia illustrating the risks, and we know that all of those things affect the electricity system so ignoring those impacts just makes the problems worse."

An early heatwave knocked six power plants offline in Texas earlier this month. Residents were asked to limit electricity use, keeping thermostats at 78 degrees or higher and, as extreme heat boosts electricity bills for consumers, avoid using large appliances at peak times. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, in its seasonal reliability report, said the state's power grid is prepared for the summer and has "sufficient" power for "normal" summer conditions, based on average weather from 2006 to 2020.

But NOAA's recently released summer outlook forecasts above average temperatures for every county in the nation.

"We are continuing to design and site facilities based on historical weather patterns that we know in the age of climate change are not a good proxy for future conditions," Webb said.

When asked if the agency is creating a blind spot for itself by not accounting for extreme weather predictions, an ERCOT spokesperson said the report "uses a scenario approach to illustrate a range of resource adequacy outcomes based on extreme system conditions, including some extreme weather scenarios."

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation, or NERC — a regulating authority that oversees the health of the nation's electrical infrastructure — has a less optimistic projection.

In a recent seasonal reliability report, NERC placed Texas at "elevated risk" for blackouts this summer. It also reported that while much of the nation will have adequate electricity this summer, several markets are at risk of energy emergencies.

California grid operators, who recently avoided widespread rolling blackouts as heat strained the grid, in its summer reliability report also based its readiness analysis on "the most recent 20 years of historical weather data." The report also notes the assessment "does not fully reflect more extreme climate induced load and supply uncertainties."

Compounding the US power grid's supply and demand problem is drought: NERC says there's been a 2% loss of reliable hydropower from the nation's power-producing dams. Add to that the rapid retirement of many coal power plants — all while nearly everything from toothbrushes to cars are now electrified. Energy experts say adding more renewables into the mix will have the dual impact of cutting climate change inducing greenhouse gas emissions but also increasing the nation's power supply, aligning with efforts such as California's 100% carbon-free mandate that aim to speed the transition.
 

 

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As New Zealand gets serious about climate change, can electricity replace fossil fuels in time?

New Zealand Energy Transition will electrify transport and industry with renewables, grid-scale solar, wind farms, geothermal, batteries, demand response, pumped hydro, and transmission upgrades to manage dry-year risk and winter peak loads.

 

Key Points

A shift to renewables and smart demand to decarbonise transport and industry while ensuring reliable, affordable power.

✅ Electrifies transport and industrial heat with renewables

✅ Uses demand response, batteries, and pumped hydro for resilience

✅ Targets 99%+ renewable supply, managing dry-year and peak loads

 

As fossil fuels are phased out over the coming decades, the Climate Change Commission (CCC) suggests electricity will take up much of the slack, aligning with the vision of a sustainable electric planet powering our vehicle fleet and replacing coal and gas in industrial processes.

But can the electricity system really provide for this increased load where and when it is needed? The answer is “yes”, with some caveats.

Our research examines climate change impacts on the New Zealand energy system. It shows we’ll need to pay close attention to demand as well as supply. And we’ll have to factor in the impacts of climate change when we plan for growth in the energy sector.

 

Demand for electricity to grow
While electricity use has not increased in NZ in the past decade, many agencies project steeply rising demand in coming years. This is partly due to both increasing population and gross domestic product, but mostly due to the anticipated electrification of transport and industry, which could result in a doubling of demand by mid-century.

It’s hard to get a sense of the scale of the new generation required, but if wind was the sole technology employed to meet demand by 2050, between 10 and 60 new wind farms would be needed nationwide.

Of course, we won’t only build wind farms, as renewables are coming on strong and grid-scale solar, rooftop solar, new geothermal, some new small hydro plant and possibly tidal and wave power will all have a part to play.

 

Managing the demand
As well as providing more electricity supply, demand management and batteries will also be important. Our modelling shows peak demand (which usually occurs when everyone turns on their heaters and ovens at 6pm in winter) could be up to 40% higher by 2050 than it is now.

But meeting this daily period of high demand could see expensive plant sitting idle for much of the time (with the last 25% of generation capacity only used about 10% of the time).

This is particularly a problem in a renewable electricity system when the hydro lakes are dry, as hydro is one of the few renewable electricity sources that can be stored during the day (as water behind the dam) and used over the evening peak (by generating with that stored water).

Demand response will therefore be needed. For example, this might involve an industrial plant turning off when there is too much load on the electricity grid.

 

But by 2050, a significant number of households will also need smart appliances and meters that automatically use cheaper electricity at non-peak times. For example, washing machines and electric car chargers could run automatically at 2am, rather than 6pm when demand is high.

Our modelling shows a well set up demand response system could mitigate dry-year risk (when hydro lakes are low on water) in coming decades, where currently gas and coal generation is often used.

Instead of (or as well as) having demand response and battery systems to combat dry-year risk, a pumped storage system could be built. This is where water is pumped uphill when hydro lake inflows are plentiful, and used to generate electricity during dry periods.

The NZ Battery project is currently considering the potential for this in New Zealand, and debates such as whether we would use Site C's electricity offer relevant lessons.

 

Almost (but not quite) 100% renewable
Dry-year risk would be greatly reduced and there would be “greater greenhouse gas emissions savings” if the Interim Climate Change Committee’s (ICCC) 2019 recommendation to aim for 99% renewable electricity was adopted, rather than aiming for 100%.

A small amount of gas-peaking plant would therefore be retained. The ICCC said going from 99% to 100% renewable electricity by overbuilding would only avoid a very small amount of carbon emissions, at a very high cost.

Our modelling supports this view. The CCC’s draft advice on the issue also makes the point that, although 100% renewable electricity is the “desired end point”, timing is important to enable a smooth transition.

Despite these views, Energy Minister Megan Woods has said the government will be keeping the target of a 100% renewable electricity sector by 2030.

 

Impacts of climate change
In future, the electricity system will have to respond to changing climate patterns as well, becoming resilient to climate risks over time.

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research predicts winds will increase in the South Island and decrease in the far north in coming decades.

Inflows to the biggest hydro lakes will get wetter (more rain in their headwaters), and their seasonality will change due to changes in the amount of snow in these catchments.

Our modelling shows the electricity system can adapt to those changing conditions. One good news story (unless you’re a skier) is that warmer temperatures will mean less snow storage at lower elevations, and therefore higher lake inflows in the big hydro catchments in winter, leading to a better match between times of high electricity demand and higher inflows.

 

The price is right
The modelling also shows the cost of generating electricity is not likely to increase, because the price of building new sources of renewable energy continues to fall globally.

Because the cost of building new renewables is now cheaper than non-renewables (such as coal-fired plants), investing in carbon-free electricity is increasingly compelling, and renewables are more likely to be built to meet new demand in the near term.

While New Zealand’s electricity system can enable the rapid decarbonisation of (at least) our transport and industrial heat sectors, international efforts like cleaning up Canada's electricity underline the need for certainty so the electricity industry can start building to meet demand everywhere.

Bipartisan cooperation at government level will be important to encourage significant investment in generation and transmission projects with long lead times and life expectancies, as analyses of climate policy and grid implications underscore in comparable markets.

Infrastructure and markets are needed to support demand response uptake, as well as certainty around the Tiwai exit in 2024 and whether pumped storage is likely to be built.

Our electricity system can support the rapid decarbonisation needed if New Zealand is to do its fair share globally to tackle climate change.

But sound planning, firm decisions and a supportive and relatively stable regulatory framework are all required before shovels can hit the ground.

 

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NT Power Penalized $75,000 for Delayed Disconnection Notices

NT Power OEB Compliance Penalty highlights a $75,000 fine for improper disconnection notices, 14-day rule violations, process oversight failures, refunds, LEAP support, and corrective training to strengthen consumer protection and regulatory adherence in Ontario areas.

 

Key Points

A $75,000 OEB fine to NT Power for improper disconnection notices; refunds, LEAP support, and improved compliance.

✅ $75k administrative monetary penalty; $25k LEAP donation; refunds

✅ 870 notices misdated; 14-day rule training implemented

✅ 10 disconnects reconnected; $100 goodwill credits

 

The Ontario Energy Board recently ruled against Newmarket-Tay Power Distribution Ltd. (NT Power), fining them $75,000 for failing to issue timely disconnection notices to 870 customers between April and August 2022. These notices did not comply with the Ontario Energy Board's distribution system code, similar to standards reaffirmed in the OEB decision on Hydro One rates earlier this year, which mandates a minimum 14-day notice period before disconnection.

Out of the affected customers, ten had their electricity services disconnected, and six were additionally charged reconnection fees. However, NT Power has since reconnected all disconnected customers and refunded the reconnection fees, as confirmed by the Ontario Energy Board.

In response to these issues, NT Power has voluntarily accepted an assurance of compliance. This agreement stipulates that NT Power will pay a $75,000 administrative monetary penalty. Furthermore, they will make an additional payment of $25,000 to the Salvation Army's Northridge Community Church, which administers the Low-income Energy Assistance Program (LEAP) within NT Power's service area, aligning with broader efforts to reduce costs for industry highlighted by Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters recently, according to the association.

This is not the first time NT Power has faced compliance issues in this regard. The utility company admitted that this incident marks the second instance in three years where they failed to adhere to their disconnection-related obligations as outlined in the code, and sector governance debates, including the Manitoba Hydro board debate, underscore how oversight remains a national focus.

In a statement to NewmarketToday, NT Power acknowledged a similar issue three years ago when they were alerted to problems with their disconnection process. They promptly made adjustments to align their in-house procedures with the requirements of the Ontario Energy Board. Unfortunately, they neglected to implement a secondary check, leading to disconnect notices being dated a few days too early.

Alex Braletic, NT Power's Vice President of Engineering and Operation, clarified that no customers were actually disconnected prematurely, and debates over paying for electricity in India illustrate how enforcement challenges differ globally, but the issued letters contained inaccuracies. He added that NT Power has since instituted additional verification procedures to prevent such errors from occurring again.

The Ontario Energy Board emphasized that NT Power has assured them that corrective measures have been taken to ensure that their staff involved in the disconnection process receive proper training and management oversight, and recent market reactions such as Hydro One shares falling after leadership changes underscore the importance of strong governance to guarantee compliance with regulatory requirements.

Brian Hewson, Vice President of Consumer Protection and Industry Performance at the Ontario Energy Board, stated, referencing earlier Ontario rate reductions for businesses that complemented consumer protections, "As a result of the actions we have taken and NT Power’s assurance that it is aware of its obligations and has taken steps to improve its processes, consumers will be better protected."

Braletic encouraged NT Power's customers who are facing difficulties paying their electricity bills to reach out to their customer service department or visit their website. He emphasized that various programs and services are available to provide relief for bills, and amid ongoing Toronto Hydro impersonation scams customers should contact NT Power directly. NT Power is committed to collaborating with customers proactively and connecting them with assistance to avoid serving them with disconnection notices.

Furthermore, NT Power plans to send a letter to the ten affected customers and provide each of them with a $100 bill credit as a goodwill gesture.

 

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