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Global Electricity Demand Surge underscores rising coal generation, lagging renewables deployment, and escalating emissions, as nations prioritize reliable power; nuclear energy and grid decarbonization emerge as pivotal solutions to the electricity transition.

Key Points

A rapid post-lockdown rise in power consumption, outpacing renewables growth and driving higher coal use and emissions.

✅ Coal generation rises faster than wind and solar additions

✅ Emissions increase as economies prioritize reliable baseload power

✅ Nuclear power touted for rapid grid decarbonization

By Robert Bryce

As the Covid lockdowns are easing, the global economy is recovering and that recovery is fueling blistering growth in electricity use. The latest data from Ember, the London-based “climate and energy think tank focused on accelerating the global electricity transition,” show that global power demand soared by about 5% in the first half of 2021. That’s faster growth than was happening back in 2018 when electricity use was increasing by about 4% per year.

The numbers from Ember also show that despite lots of talk about the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, coal demand for power generation continues to grow and emissions from the electric sector continue to grow: up by 5% over the first half of 2019. In addition, they show that while about half of the growth in electricity demand was met by wind and solar, as low-emissions sources are set to cover almost all new demand over the next three years, overall growth in electricity use is still outstripping the growth in renewables. 

The soaring use of electricity, and increasing emissions from power generation confirm the sage wisdom of Rasheed Wallace, the volatile former power forward with the Detroit Pistons and other NBA teams, and now an assistant coach at the  University of Memphis, who coined the catchphrase: “Ball don’t lie.” If Wallace or one of his teammates was called for a foul during a basketball game that he thought was undeserved, and the opposing player missed the ensuing free throws, Wallace would often holler, “ball don’t lie,” as if the basketball itself was pronouncing judgment on the referee’s errant call. 

I often think about Wallace’s catchphrase while looking at global energy and power trends and substitute my own phrase: numbers don’t lie.

Over the past few weeks Ember, BP, and the International Energy Agency have all published reports which come to the same two conclusions: that countries all around the world — and China's electricity sector in particular — are doing whatever they need to do to get the electricity they need to grow their economies. Second, they are using lots of coal to get that juice. 

As I discuss in my recent book, A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations, Electricity is the world’s most important and fastest-growing form of energy. The Ember data proves that. At a growth rate of 5%, global electricity use will double in about 14 years, and as surging electricity demand is putting power systems under strain around the world, the electricity sector also accounts for the biggest single share of global carbon dioxide emissions: about 25 percent. Thus, if we are to have any hope of cutting global emissions, the electricity sector is pivotal. Further, the soaring use of electricity shows that low-income people and countries around the world are not content to stay in the dark. They want to live high-energy lives with access to all the electronic riches that we take for granted.  

 Ember’s data clearly shows that decarbonizing the global electric grid will require finding a substitute for coal. Indeed, coal use may be plummeting in the U.S. and western Europe, where U.S. electricity consumption has been declining, but over the past two years, several developing countries including Mongolia, China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and India, all boosted their use of coal. This was particularly obvious in China, where, between the first half of 2019 and the first half of 2021, electricity demand jumped by about 14%. Of that increase, coal-fired generation provided roughly twice as much new electricity as wind and solar combined. In Pakistan, electricity demand jumped by about 7%, and coal provided more than three times as much new electricity as nuclear and about three times as much as hydro. (Wind and solar did not grow at all in Pakistan over that period.) 

Hate coal all you like, but its century-long persistence in power generation proves its importance. That persistence proves that climate change concerns are not as important to most consumers and policymakers as reliable electricity. In 2010, Roger Pielke Jr. dubbed this the Iron Law of Climate Policy which says “When policies on emissions reductions collide with policies focused on economic growth, economic growth will win out every time.” Pielke elaborated on that point, saying the Iron Law is a “boundary condition on policy design that is every bit as limiting as is the second law of thermodynamics, and it holds everywhere around the world, in rich and poor countries alike. It says that even if people are willing to bear some costs to reduce emissions (and experience shows that they are), they are willing to go only so far.”

Over the past five years, I’ve written a book about electricity, co-produced a feature-length documentary film about it (Juice: How Electricity Explains the World), and launched a podcast that focuses largely on energy and power. I’m convinced that Pielke’s claim is exactly right and should be extended to electricity and dubbed the Iron Law of Electricity which says, “when forced to choose between dirty electricity and no electricity, people will choose dirty electricity every time.” I saw this at work in electricity-poor places all over the world, including India, Lebanon, and Puerto Rico. 

Pielke, a professor at the University of Colorado as well as a highly regarded author on the politics of climate change and sports governance, has since elaborated on the Iron Law. During an interview in Juice, he explained it thusly: “The Iron Law says we’re not going to reduce emissions by willingly getting poor. Rich people aren't going to want to get poorer, poor people aren't going to want to get poorer.” He continued, “If there is one thing that we can count on it is that policymakers will be rewarded by populations if they make people wealthier. We're doing everything we can to try to get richer as nations, as communities, as individuals. If we want to reduce emissions, we really have only one place to go and that's technology.”

Pielke’s point reminds me of another of my favorite energy analysts, Robert Rapier, who made a salient point in his Forbes column last week. He wrote, “Despite the blistering growth rate of renewables, it’s important to keep in mind that overall global energy consumption is growing. Even though global renewable energy consumption has increased by about 21 exajoules in the past decade, overall energy consumption has increased by 51 exajoules. Increased fossil fuel consumption made up most of this growth, with every category of fossil fuels showing increased consumption over the decade.” 

The punchline here – despite my tangential reference to Rasheed Wallace — is obvious: The claims that massive reductions in global carbon dioxide emissions must happen soon are being mocked by the numbers. Countries around the world are acting in their interest, particularly when it comes to their electricity needs and that is resulting in big increases in emissions. As Ember concludes in their report, wind and solar are growing, and some analyses suggest renewables could eclipse coal by 2025, but the “electricity transition” is “not happening fast enough.”

Ember explains that in the first half of 2021, wind and solar output exceeded the output of the world’s nuclear reactors for the first time. It also noted that over the past two years, “Nuclear generation fell by 2% compared to pre-pandemic levels, as closures at older plants across the OECD, especially amid debates over European nuclear trends, exceeded the new capacity in China.” While that may cheer anti-nuclear activists at groups like Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth, the truth is obvious: the only way – repeat, the only way – the electric sector will achieve significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions is if we can replace lots of coal-fired generation with nuclear reactors and do so in relatively short order, meaning the next decade or so. Renewables are politically popular and they are growing, but they cannot, will not, be able to match the soaring demand for the electricity that is needed to sustain modern economies and bring developing countries out of the darkness and into modernity. 

Countries like China, Vietnam, India, and others need an alternative to coal for power generation. They need new nuclear reactors that are smaller, safer, and cheaper than the existing designs. And they need it soon. I will be writing about those reactors in future columns.

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BC-Alberta Transmission Intertie enables clean hydro to balance wind and solar, expanding transmission capacity so Site C hydro can dispatch power, cut emissions, lower costs, and accelerate electrification across provincial grids under federal climate policy.

Key Points

A cross-provincial grid link using BC hydro to firm Alberta wind and solar, cutting emissions and costs.

✅ Balances variable renewables with dispatchable hydro from Site C.

✅ Enables power trade: peak exports, low-cost wind imports.

✅ Lowers decarbonization costs and supports electrification goals.

By Mark Jaccard

Lost in the news and noise of the federal government's newly announced $170-per-tonne carbon tax was a single, critical sentence in Canada's updated climate plan, one that signals a strategy that could serve as the cornerstone for a future free of greenhouse gas emissions.

"The government will work with provinces and territories to connect parts of Canada that have abundant clean hydroelectricity with parts that are currently more dependent on fossil fuels for electricity generation — including by advancing strategic intertie projects."

Why do we think this one sentence is so important? And what has it got to do with the controversial Site C project Site C electricity debate under construction in British Columbia?

The answer lies in the huge amount of electricity we'll need to generate in Canada to achieve our climate goals for 2030 and 2050. Even while we aggressively pursue energy efficiency, our electric cars, buses and perhaps trucks in Canada's net-zero race will need a huge amount of new electricity, as will our buildings and industries. 

Luckily, Canada is blessed with an electricity system that is the envy of the world — already over 80 per cent zero emission, the bulk being from flexible hydro-electricity, with a backbone of nuclear power largely in Ontario, a national electricity success and rapidly growing shares of cheap wind and solar. 

Provincial differences
Yet the story differs significantly from one province to another. While B.C.'s electricity is nearly emissions free, the opposite is true of its neighbour, Alberta, where more than 80 per cent still comes from fossil fuels. This, despite an impressive shift away from coal power in recent years.

Now imagine if B.C. and Alberta were one province.

This might sound like the start of a bad joke, or a horror movie to some, but it's the crux of new research by a trio of energy economists who put a fine point on the value of such co-operation.

The study, by Brett Dolter, Kent Fellows and Nic Rivers, takes a detailed look at the economic case for completing Site C, BC Hydro's controversial large hydro project under construction, and makes three key conclusions.

First, they argue Site C should likely not have been started in the first place. Only a narrow set of assumptions can now justify its total cost. But what's done is done, and absent a time machine, the decision to complete the dam rests on go-forward costs.

On that note, their second conclusion is no more optimistic. Considering the cost to complete the project, even accounting for avoiding termination costs should it be cancelled, they find the economics of completing Site C over-budget status to be weak. If the New York Times had a Site C needle in the style of the newspaper's election visual, it would be "leaning cancel" at this point.

In Alberta, more than 80 per cent of the electricity still comes from fossil fuels, despite an impressive shift away from coal power in recent years. (CBC)
But it is their third conclusion that stands out as worthy of attention. They argue there is a case for completing Site C if the following conditions are met:

B.C. and Alberta reduce their electricity sector emissions by more than 75 per cent (this really means Alberta, given B.C.'s already clean position); and

B.C. and Alberta expand their ability to move electricity between their respective provinces by building new transmission lines.

Let's deal with each of these in turn.

On Condition 1, we give an emphatic: YES! Reducing electricity emissions is an absolute must to meet climate pledges if Canada is to come even close to achieving its net-zero goals. As noted above, a clean electricity grid will be the cornerstone of a decarbonized economy as we generate a great deal more power to electrify everything from industrial processes to heating to transportation and more. 

Condition 2 is more challenging. Talk of increasing transmission connections across Canada, including Hydro-Québec's U.S. strategy has been ongoing for over 50 years, with little success to speak of. But this time might well be different. And the implications for a completed Site C, should the government go that route, are profound.

Wind and solar costs rapidly declining
Somewhat ironically, the case for Site C is made stronger by the rapidly declining costs of two of its apparent renewable competitors: wind and solar.

The cost of wind and solar generation has fallen by 70 per cent and 90 per cent, respectively, a dramatic decline in the past 10 years. No longer can these variable sources of power be derided as high cost; they are unequivocally the cheapest sources of raw energy in electricity systems today.

However, electricity system operators must deal with their "non-dispatchability," a seemingly complicated term that simply means they produce electricity only when the sun shines and the wind blows, which is not necessarily when electricity customers want their electricity delivered (dispatched) to them. And because of this characteristic, the value of dispatchable electricity sources, like a completed Site C, will grow as a complement to wind and solar. 

Thus, as Alberta's generation of cheap wind and solar grows, so too does the value of connecting it with the firm, dispatchable resources available in B.C.

Rather than displacing wind and solar, large hydro facilities with the ability to increase or decrease output on short notice can actually enable more investment in these renewable sources. Expanding the transmission connection, with Site C on one side of that line, becomes even more valuable.

Many in B.C. might read this and rightly ask themselves, why should we foot the bill for this costly project to help out Albertans? The answer is that it won't be charity — B.C. will get paid handsomely for the power it delivers in peak periods and will be able to import wind power at low prices from Alberta in other times. B.C. will benefit greatly from these gains of trade.

Turning to Alberta, why should Albertans support B.C. reaping these gains? The answer is two-fold.

First, Site C will actually enable more low-cost wind and solar to be built in Alberta due to hydro's ability to balance these non-dispatchable renewables. Jobs and economic opportunity will occur in Alberta from this renewable energy growth.

Second, while B.C. imports won't come cheap, they will be less costly than the decarbonization alternatives Alberta would need without B.C.'s flexible hydro, as the economists' study shows. This means lower overall costs to Alberta's power consumers.

A clear role for Ottawa
To be sure, there are challenges to increasing the connectedness of B.C. and Alberta's power systems, not least of which is BC Hydro being a regulated, government-owned monopoly while Alberta is a competitive market amongst private generators. Some significant accommodations in climate policy and grids will be needed to ensure both sides can compete and benefit from trade on an equal footing.

There is also the pesky matter of permitting and constructing thousands of kilometres of power lines. Getting linear energy infrastructure built in Canada has not exactly been our forte of late.

We are not naive to the significant challenges in such an approach, but it's not often that we see such a clear narrative for beneficial climate action that, when considered at the provincial level, is likely to be thwarted, but when considered more broadly can produce a big win.

It's the clearest example yet of a role for the federal government to bridge the gap, to facilitate the needed regulatory conversations, and, let's be frank, to bring money to the table to make the line happen. Neither provincial side is likely to do it on their own, nor, as history has shown, are they likely to do it together. 

For a government committed to reducing emissions, and with a justified emphasis on the electricity sector, the opportunity to expand the Alberta-B.C. transmission intertie, leveraging the flexibility of B.C.'s hydro with the abundance of wind and solar potential on the Prairies, offers a potential massive decarbonization win for Western Canada that is too good to ignore.

Mark Jaccard, a professor at Simon Fraser University, and Blake Shaffer, a professor at the University of Calgary

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BC Hydro pandemic electricity trends reveal weekend-like energy consumption patterns: later morning demand, earlier evenings, more cooking, streaming on smart TVs, and work-from-home routines, with tips to conserve using laptops and small appliances.

Key Points

Weekend-like shifts in power demand from work-from-home routines: later mornings, earlier evenings, and more streaming.

✅ Later morning electricity demand; earlier evening peaks

✅ More cooking and baking; increased streaming after dinner

✅ Conservation tips: laptops, small appliances, smart TVs

The latest report on electricity usage in British Columbia reveals the COVID-19 pandemic has created an atmosphere where every day feels like a Saturday, a pattern also reflected in BC electricity demand during peak seasons.

BC Hydro says overall power usage hasn't changed much, but similar Ontario electricity demand shifts suggest regional differences, while Manitoba demand fell more noticeably, and a survey of 500 people shows daily routines have shifted dramatically since mid-March when pandemic-related closures began.

The hydro report says, with nearly 40 per cent of B.C. residents working from home, trends in residential electricity use confirm almost half are sleeping in and eating breakfast later, while about a quarter say they are showering less.

Those patterns more closely resemble what hydro says is typical weekend power consumption, and could influence time-of-use rates as electricity demand occurs later in the morning and earlier in the evening.

The report also finds many people are cooking and baking more than before the pandemic, preparing the evening meal earlier, streaming or viewing more television after dinner even as Ottawa's electricity consumption dipped earlier in the pandemic, and 80 per cent are going to bed later.

Although electricity use is normal for this time of year, hydro says homebound residents can conserve by using laptops instead of desktops, small appliances such as Instant Pots instead of ovens, and streaming movies or TV shows on a smart televisions instead of game consoles, even as Hydro One peak rates continue to shape consumption patterns elsewhere.

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NRC Advanced Reactor Licensing streamlines a risk-informed, performance-based, technology-inclusive pathway for advanced non-light water reactors, aligning with NEIMA to enable predictable regulatory reviews, inherent safety, clean energy deployment, and industrial heat, hydrogen, and desalination applications.

Key Points

A risk-informed, performance-based NRC pathway streamlining licensing for advanced non-light water reactors.

✅ Aligned with NEIMA: risk-informed, performance-based, tech-inclusive

✅ Predictable licensing for advanced non-light water reactor designs

✅ Enables clean heat, hydrogen, desalination beyond electricity

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) voted 4-0 to approve the implementation of a more streamlined and predictable licensing pathway for advanced non-light water reactors, aligning with nuclear innovation priorities identified by industry advocates, the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) announced, and amid regional reliability measures such as New England emergency fuel stock plans that have drawn cost scrutiny.

This approach is consistent with the Nuclear Energy Innovation and Modernisation Act (NEIMA), a nuclear innovation act passed in 2019 by the US Congress calling for the development of a risk-informed, performance-based and technology inclusive licensing process for advanced reactor developers.

NEI Chief Nuclear Officer Doug True said: “A modernised regulatory framework is a key enabler of next-generation nuclear technologies that, amid ACORE’s challenge to DOE subsidy proposals in energy market proceedings, can help us meet our energy needs while protecting the climate. The Commission’s unanimous approval of a risk-informed and performance-based licensing framework paves the way for regulatory reviews to be aligned with the inherent safety characteristics, smaller reactor cores and simplified designs of advanced reactors.”

Over the last several years the industry’s Licensing Modernisation Project, sponsored by US Department of Energy, led by Southern Nuclear, and supported by NEI’s Advanced Reactor Regulatory Task Force, and influenced by a presidential order to bolster uranium and nuclear energy, developed the guidance for this new framework. Amid shifts in the fuel supply chain, including the U.S. ban on Russian uranium, this approach will inform the development of a new rule for licensing advanced reactors, which NEIMA requires.

“A well-defined licensing path will benefit the next generation of nuclear plants, especially as regions consider New England market overhaul efforts, which could meet a wide range of applications beyond generating electricity such as producing heat for industry, desalinating water, and making hydrogen – all without carbon emissions,” True noted.

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Electrical Grounding and Bonding NEC 250 Training equips electricians with Article 250 expertise, OSHA compliance knowledge, lightning protection strategies, and low-impedance fault current path design for safer industrial, commercial, and institutional power systems.

Key Points

Live NEC 250 course on grounding and bonding, covering safety, testing, and OSHA-compliant design.

✅ Interprets NEC Article 250 grounding and bonding rules

✅ Designs low-impedance fault current paths for safety

✅ Aligns with OSHA, lightning protection, and testing best practices

The Electricity Forum is organizing a series of live online Electrical Grounding and Bonding - NEC 250 training courses this Fall:

• September 8-9 , 2020 - 10:00 am - 4:30 pm ET
• October 29-30 , 2020 - 10:00 am - 4:30 pm ET
• November 23-24 , 2020 - 10:00 am - 4:30 pm ET

This interactive 12-hour live online instructor-led  Grounding and Bonding and the NEC Training course takes an in-depth look at Article 250 of the National Electrical Code (NEC) and is designed to give students the correct information they need to design, install and maintain effective electrical grounding and bonding systems in industrial, commercial and institutional power systems, with substation maintenance training also relevant in many facilities.

One of the most important AND least understood sections of the NEC is the section on Electrical Grounding, where resources like grounding guidelines can help practitioners navigate key concepts.

No other section of the National Electrical Code can match Article 250 (Grounding and Bonding) for confusion that leads to misapplication, violation, and misinterpretation. It's generally agreed that the terminology used in Section 250 has been a source for much confusion for industrial, commercial and institutional electricians. Thankfully, this has improved during the last few revisions to Article 250.

Article 250 covers the grounding requirements for providing a path to the earth to reduce overvoltage from lightning, with lightning protection training providing useful context, and the bonding requirements for a low-impedance fault current path back to the source of the electrical supply to facilitate the operation of overcurrent devices in the event of a ground fault.

Our Electrical Grounding Training course will address all the latest changes to  the Electrical Grounding rules included in the NEC, and relate them to VFD drive training considerations for modern systems.

Our course will cover grounding fundamentals, identify which grounding system tests can prevent safety and operational issues at your facilities, and introduce related motor testing training topics, and details regarding which tests can be conducted while the plant is in operation versus which tests require a shutdown will be discussed. 

Proper electrical grounding and bonding of equipment helps ensure that the electrical equipment and systems safely remove the possibility of electric shock, by limiting the voltage imposed on electrical equipment and systems from lightning, line surges, unintentional contact with higher-voltage lines, or ground-fault conditions. Proper grounding and bonding is important for personnel protection, with electrical safety tips offering practical guidance, as well as for compliance with OSHA 29 CFR 1910.304(g) Grounding.

It has been determined that more than 70 per cent of all electrical problems in industrial, commercial and institutional power systems, including large projects like the New England Clean Power Link, are due to poor grounding, and bonding errors. Without proper electrical grounding and bonding, sensitive electronic equipment is subjected to destruction of data, erratic equipment operation, and catastrophic damage. This electrical grounding and bonding training course will National Electrical Code.

Complete course details here:

https://electricityforum.com/electrical-training/electrical-grounding-nec

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BC Hydro Power Pathway accelerates electrification with clean energy investments, new transmission lines, upgraded substations, and renewable projects like wind and solar, strengthening the grid, supporting decarbonization, and creating jobs across British Columbia's growing economy.

Key Points

A $36B, 10-year BC Hydro plan to expand clean power infrastructure, accelerate electrification, and support jobs.

✅ $36B for new lines, substations, dam upgrades, and distribution

✅ Supports 10,500-12,500 jobs per year across B.C.

✅ Adds wind and solar, leveraging hydro to balance renewables

BC Hydro is gearing up for a decade of extensive construction to enhance British Columbia's electrical system, supporting a burgeoning clean economy and community growth while generating new employment opportunities.

Premier David Eby emphasized the necessity of expanding the electrical system for industrial growth, residential needs, and future advancements. He highlighted the role of clean, affordable energy in reducing pollution, securing well-paying jobs, and fostering economic growth.

At the B.C. Natural Resources Forum in Prince George, Premier Eby unveiled a $36-billion investment plan for infrastructure projects in communities and regions and green energy solutions to provide clean, affordable electricity for future generations.

The Power Pathway: Building BC’s Energy Future, BC Hydro’s revised 10-year capital plan, involves nearly $36 billion in investments across the province from 2024-25 to 2033-34. This marks a 50% increase from the previous plan of $24 billion and includes a substantial rise in electrification and emissions-reduction projects (nearly $10 billion, up from $1 billion).

These upcoming construction projects are expected to support approximately 10,500 to 12,500 jobs annually. The plan is set to bolster and sustain BC Hydro’s capital investments as significant projects like Site C are near completion.

The plan addresses the increasing demand for electricity due to population and housing growth, industrial development, such as a major hydrogen project, and the transition from fossil fuels to clean electricity. Key projects include constructing new high-voltage transmission lines from Prince George to Terrace, building or expanding substations in high-growth areas, and upgrading dams and generating facilities for enhanced safety and efficiency.

Minister of Energy, Mines, and Low Carbon Innovation Josie Osborne stated that this plan aims to build a clean energy future and support EV charging expansion while creating construction jobs. With BC Hydro’s capital plan allocating almost $4 billion annually for the next decade, it will drive economic growth and ensure access to clean, affordable electricity.

BC Hydro aims to add new clean, renewable energy sources like wind and solar, while acknowledging power supply challenges that must be managed as capacity grows. B.C.’s hydroelectric dams, functioning as batteries, enable the integration of intermittent renewables into the grid, providing reliable backup.

Chris O’Riley, president and CEO of BC Hydro, said the grid is one of the world’s cleanest. The new $36 billion capital plan encompasses investments in generation assets, large transmission infrastructure, and local distribution networks.

In partnership with BC Hydro, Premier Eby also announced a new streamlined approval process to expedite electrification for high-demand industries and support job creation, complementing measures like the BC Hydro rebate and B.C. Affordability Credit that help households.

Minister of Environment and Climate Change Strategy George Heyman highlighted the importance of rapid electrification in collaboration with the private sector to achieve CleanBC climate goals by 2030, including corridor charging via the BC's Electric Highway, and maintain the competitiveness of B.C. industries. The new process will streamline approvals for industrial electrification projects, enhancing efficiency and funding certainty.

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