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China Power Investment 2010 Outlook highlights electric grid expansion, hydropower, nuclear, and wind growth, thermal slowdown, 85 GW additions, 950 GW capacity target, and 9% power consumption rise to 3,970 billion kilowatt-hours.
Understanding the Story
An overview of China's 2010 power sector: high investment, cleaner mix shift, 85 GW added, 9% demand growth.
- 2009 power investment hit $110.5B, +19.9% YoY.
- 2010 investment seen near $100B; grid and sources about $50B each.
- Shift to hydro, nuclear, wind; thermal investment -11.11% YoY.
- Added capacity 2010: 85 GW; installed near 950 GW by year-end.
- 2010 power use around 3,970 TWh, up 9% YoY.
China's investment in electric power is expected to reach about $100 billion in 2010, according to the Analysis and Predication Report on National Electric Power Supply and Demand, as well as the Situation of Economic Operation report for 2009-10, that were recently issued by China Electricity Council.
In 2009, China's investment in electric power reached $110.5 billion, an increase of 19.9% year-over-year; of which, the investment for power source projects reached $54.3 billion, an increase of 8.92% year-over-year, and the investment for grid construction reached $56.2 billion, an increase of 32.89% year-over-year. The structural adjustment in power source investment, as power equipment utilization declined 6% nationwide, was accelerated.
The investment in hydropower, nuclear power and wind power increased 2.33%, 74.91% and 43.9% year-over-year respectively, while the investment for thermal power dropped 11.11% year-over-year, as power generation up 14% nationwide.
According to the report, the investment in the power sector, as China invests almost $4B early in the year, will remain high, and the structural adjustment will be continued in 2010. The investment in power source projects and grid construction is expected to reach about $50 billion respectively, and the total investment in the power sector will be about $100 billion, which is about 10% lower than the actual investment in 2009.
The newly added installed capacity is expected to be about 85 gigawatts (GW) nationwide in 2010. Of which, the newly added installed capacity of hydropower will surpass 15 GW, and the installed capacities of thermal power, nuclear power, wind power and photovoltaic power generation will be given an additional 55 GW, 13 GW, 1.08 GW and 0.2 GW, respectively.
The installed capacity of China, which surpassed 800 GW earlier, is expected to surpass 900 GW in the middle of 2010. By the end of 2010, China's installed capacity will reach about 950 GW, including 210 GW for hydropower, 700 GW for thermal power, 10.16 GW for nuclear power, and 30 GW for on-grid wind power.
The report says that the growth of national power consumption in 2010 will be higher than that of 2009, and the annual power consumption will reach about 3,970 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 9% compared with the value in 2009.
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