Electricity Grid Flow Prediction leverages big data, machine learning, and weather analytics to forecast power flows across smart grids, enhancing reliability, reducing blackouts and curtailment, and optimizing renewable integration under EU Horizon 2020 innovation.
Key Points
Short-term forecasting of power flows using big data, weather inputs, and machine learning to stabilize smart grids.
✅ Uses big data, weather, and ML for 6-hour forecasts
✅ Improves reliability, cuts blackouts and energy waste
✅ Supports smart grids, renewables, and grid balancing
Three European prediction specialists have won prizes worth €2 million for developing the most accurate predictions of electricity flow through a grid
The three winners of the Big Data Technologies Horizon Prize received their awards at a ceremony on 12th November in Austria.
The first prize of €1.2 million went to Professor José Vilar from Spain, while Belgians Sofie Verrewaere and Yann-Aël Le Borgne came in joint second place and won €400,000 each.
The challenge was open to individuals groups and organisations from countries taking part in the EU’s research and innovation programme, Horizon 2020.
Carlos Moedas, Commissioner for Research, Science and Innovation, said: “Energy is one of the crucial sectors that are being transformed by the digital grid worldwide.
“This Prize is a good example of how we support a positive transformation through the EU’s research and innovation programme, Horizon 2020.
“For the future, we have designed our next programme, Horizon Europe, to put even more emphasis on the merger of the physical and digital worlds across sectors such as energy, transport and health.”
The challenge for the applicants was to create AI-driven software that could predict the likely flow of electricity through a grid taking into account a number of factors including the weather and the generation source (i.e. wind turbines, solar cells, etc).
Using a large quantity of data from electricity grids, EU smart meters, combined with additional data such as weather conditions, applicants had to develop software that could predict the flow of energy through the grid over a six-hour period.
Commissioner for Digital Economy and Society Mariya Gabriel said: “The wide range of possible applications of these winning submissions could bring tangible benefits to all European citizens, including efforts to tackle climate change with machine learning across sectors.”
The decision to focus on energy grids for this particular prize was driven by a clear market need, including expanding HVDC technology capabilities.
Today’s energy is produced at millions of interconnected and dispersed unpredictable sites such as wind turbines, solar cells, etc., so it is harder to ensure that electricity supply matches the demand at all times.
This complexity means that huge amounts of data are produced at the energy generation sites, in the grid and at the place where the energy is consumed.
Being able to make accurate, short-term predictions about power grid traffic is therefore vital to reduce the risks of blackouts or, by enabling utilities to use AI for energy savings, limit waste of energy.
Reliable predictions can also be used in fields such as biology and healthcare. The predictions can help to diagnose and cure diseases as well as to allocate resources where they are most needed.
Ultimately, the winning ideas are set to be picked up by the energy sector in the hopes of creating smarter electricity infrastructure, more economic and more reliable power grids.
ITER Nuclear Fusion advances tokamak magnetic confinement, heating deuterium-tritium plasma with superconducting magnets, targeting net energy gain, tritium breeding, and steam-turbine power, while complementing laser inertial confinement milestones for grid-scale electricity and 2025 startup goals.
Key Points
ITER Nuclear Fusion is a tokamak project confining D-T plasma with magnets to achieve net energy gain and clean power.
✅ Tokamak magnetic confinement with high-temp superconducting coils
✅ Deuterium-tritium fuel cycle with on-site tritium breeding
✅ Targets net energy gain and grid-scale, low-carbon electricity
It sounds like the stuff of dreams: a virtually limitless source of energy that doesn’t produce greenhouse gases or radioactive waste. That’s the promise of nuclear fusion, often described as the holy grail of clean energy by proponents, which for decades has been nothing more than a fantasy due to insurmountable technical challenges. But things are heating up in what has turned into a race to create what amounts to an artificial sun here on Earth, one that can provide power for our kettles, cars and light bulbs.
Today’s nuclear power plants create electricity through nuclear fission, in which atoms are split, with next-gen nuclear power exploring smaller, cheaper, safer designs that remain distinct from fusion. Nuclear fusion however, involves combining atomic nuclei to release energy. It’s the same reaction that’s taking place at the Sun’s core. But overcoming the natural repulsion between atomic nuclei and maintaining the right conditions for fusion to occur isn’t straightforward. And doing so in a way that produces more energy than the reaction consumes has been beyond the grasp of the finest minds in physics for decades.
But perhaps not for much longer. Some major technical challenges have been overcome in the past few years and governments around the world have been pouring money into fusion power research as part of a broader green industrial revolution under way in several regions. There are also over 20 private ventures in the UK, US, Europe, China and Australia vying to be the first to make fusion energy production a reality.
“People are saying, ‘If it really is the ultimate solution, let’s find out whether it works or not,’” says Dr Tim Luce, head of science and operation at the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), being built in southeast France. ITER is the biggest throw of the fusion dice yet.
Its $22bn (£15.9bn) build cost is being met by the governments of two-thirds of the world’s population, including the EU, the US, China and Russia, at a time when Europe is losing nuclear power and needs energy, and when it’s fired up in 2025 it’ll be the world’s largest fusion reactor. If it works, ITER will transform fusion power from being the stuff of dreams into a viable energy source.
Constructing a nuclear fusion reactor ITER will be a tokamak reactor – thought to be the best hope for fusion power. Inside a tokamak, a gas, often a hydrogen isotope called deuterium, is subjected to intense heat and pressure, forcing electrons out of the atoms. This creates a plasma – a superheated, ionised gas – that has to be contained by intense magnetic fields.
The containment is vital, as no material on Earth could withstand the intense heat (100,000,000°C and above) that the plasma has to reach so that fusion can begin. It’s close to 10 times the heat at the Sun’s core, and temperatures like that are needed in a tokamak because the gravitational pressure within the Sun can’t be recreated.
When atomic nuclei do start to fuse, vast amounts of energy are released. While the experimental reactors currently in operation release that energy as heat, in a fusion reactor power plant, the heat would be used to produce steam that would drive turbines to generate electricity, even as some envision nuclear beyond electricity for industrial heat and fuels.
Tokamaks aren’t the only fusion reactors being tried. Another type of reactor uses lasers to heat and compress a hydrogen fuel to initiate fusion. In August 2021, one such device at the National Ignition Facility, at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, generated 1.35 megajoules of energy. This record-breaking figure brings fusion power a step closer to net energy gain, but most hopes are still pinned on tokamak reactors rather than lasers.
In June 2021, China’s Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) reactor maintained a plasma for 101 seconds at 120,000,000°C. Before that, the record was 20 seconds. Ultimately, a fusion reactor would need to sustain the plasma indefinitely – or at least for eight-hour ‘pulses’ during periods of peak electricity demand.
A real game-changer for tokamaks has been the magnets used to produce the magnetic field. “We know how to make magnets that generate a very high magnetic field from copper or other kinds of metal, but you would pay a fortune for the electricity. It wouldn’t be a net energy gain from the plant,” says Luce.
One route for nuclear fusion is to use atoms of deuterium and tritium, both isotopes of hydrogen. They fuse under incredible heat and pressure, and the resulting products release energy as heat
The solution is to use high-temperature, superconducting magnets made from superconducting wire, or ‘tape’, that has no electrical resistance. These magnets can create intense magnetic fields and don’t lose energy as heat.
“High temperature superconductivity has been known about for 35 years. But the manufacturing capability to make tape in the lengths that would be required to make a reasonable fusion coil has just recently been developed,” says Luce. One of ITER’s magnets, the central solenoid, will produce a field of 13 tesla – 280,000 times Earth’s magnetic field.
The inner walls of ITER’s vacuum vessel, where the fusion will occur, will be lined with beryllium, a metal that won’t contaminate the plasma much if they touch. At the bottom is the divertor that will keep the temperature inside the reactor under control.
“The heat load on the divertor can be as large as in a rocket nozzle,” says Luce. “Rocket nozzles work because you can get into orbit within minutes and in space it’s really cold.” In a fusion reactor, a divertor would need to withstand this heat indefinitely and at ITER they’ll be testing one made out of tungsten.
Meanwhile, in the US, the National Spherical Torus Experiment – Upgrade (NSTX-U) fusion reactor will be fired up in the autumn of 2022, while efforts in advanced fission such as a mini-reactor design are also progressing. One of its priorities will be to see whether lining the reactor with lithium helps to keep the plasma stable.
Choosing a fuel Instead of just using deuterium as the fusion fuel, ITER will use deuterium mixed with tritium, another hydrogen isotope. The deuterium-tritium blend offers the best chance of getting significantly more power out than is put in. Proponents of fusion power say one reason the technology is safe is that the fuel needs to be constantly fed into the reactor to keep fusion happening, making a runaway reaction impossible.
Deuterium can be extracted from seawater, so there’s a virtually limitless supply of it. But only 20kg of tritium are thought to exist worldwide, so fusion power plants will have to produce it (ITER will develop technology to ‘breed’ tritium). While some radioactive waste will be produced in a fusion plant, it’ll have a lifetime of around 100 years, rather than the thousands of years from fission.
At the time of writing in September, researchers at the Joint European Torus (JET) fusion reactor in Oxfordshire were due to start their deuterium-tritium fusion reactions. “JET will help ITER prepare a choice of machine parameters to optimise the fusion power,” says Dr Joelle Mailloux, one of the scientific programme leaders at JET. These parameters will include finding the best combination of deuterium and tritium, and establishing how the current is increased in the magnets before fusion starts.
The groundwork laid down at JET should accelerate ITER’s efforts to accomplish net energy gain. ITER will produce ‘first plasma’ in December 2025 and be cranked up to full power over the following decade. Its plasma temperature will reach 150,000,000°C and its target is to produce 500 megawatts of fusion power for every 50 megawatts of input heating power.
“If ITER is successful, it’ll eliminate most, if not all, doubts about the science and liberate money for technology development,” says Luce. That technology development will be demonstration fusion power plants that actually produce electricity, where advanced reactors can build on decades of expertise. “ITER is opening the door and saying, yeah, this works – the science is there.”
IESO Fictitious Demand Error inflated HOEP in the Ontario electricity market, after embedded generation was mis-modeled; the OEB says double-counted load lifted wholesale prices and shifted costs via the Global Adjustment.
Key Points
An IESO modeling flaw that double-counted load, inflating HOEP and charges in Ontario's wholesale market.
✅ Double-counted unmetered load from embedded generation
✅ Inflated HOEP; shifted costs via Global Adjustment
✅ OEB flagged transparency; exporters paid more
For almost a year, the operator of Ontario’s electricity system erroneously counted enough phantom demand to power a small city, causing prices to spike and hundreds of millions of dollars in extra charges to consumers, according to the provincial energy regulator.
The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) also failed to tell anyone about the error once it noticed and fixed it.
The error likely added between $450 million and $560 million to hourly rates and other charges before it was fixed in April 2017, according to a report released this month by the Ontario Energy Board’s Market Surveillance Panel.
It did this by adding as much as 220 MW of “fictitious demand” to the market starting in May 2016, when the IESO started paying consumers who reduced their demand for power during peak periods. This involved the integration of small-scale embedded generation (largely made up of solar) into its wholesale model for the first time.
The mistake assumed maximum consumption at such sites without meters, and double-counted that consumption.
The OEB said the mistake particularly hurt exporters and some end-users, who did not benefit from a related reduction of a global adjustment rate applicable to other customers.
“The most direct impact of the increase in HOEP (Hourly Ontario Energy Price) was felt by Ontario consumers and exporters of electricity, who paid an artificially high HOEP, to the benefit of generators and importers,” the OEB said.
The mix-up did not result in an equivalent increase in total system costs, because changes to the HOEP are offset by inverse changes to a electricity cost allocation mechanism such as the Global Adjustment rate, the OEB noted.
A chart from the OEB's report shows the time of day when fictitious demand was added to the system, and its influence on hourly rates.
Peak time spikes The OEB said that the fictitious demand “regularly inflated” the hourly price of energy and other costs calculated as a direct function of it.
For almost a year, Ontario's electricity system operator @IESO_Tweets erroneously counted enough phantom demand to power a small city, causing price spikes and hundreds of millions in charges to consumers, @OntEnergyBoard says. @5thEstate reports.
It estimated the average increase to the HOEP was as much as $4.50/MWh, but that price spikes, compounded by scheduled OEB rate changes, would have been much higher during busier times, such as the mid-morning and early evening.
“In times of tight supply, the addition of fictitious demand often had a dramatic inflationary impact on the HOEP,” the report said.
That meant on one summer evening in 2016 the hourly rate jumped to $1,619/MWh, it said, which was the fourth highest in the history of the Ontario wholesale electricity market.
“Additional demand is met by scheduling increasingly expensive supply, thus increasing the market price. In instances where supply is tight and the supply stack is steep, small increases in demand can cause significant increases in the market price.
The OEB questioned why, as of September this year, the IESO had failed to notify its customers or the broader public, amid a broader auditor-regulator dispute that drew political attention, about the mistake and its effect on prices.
“It's time for greater transparency on where electricity costs are really coming from,” said Sarah Buchanan, clean energy program manager at Environmental Defence.
“Ontario will be making big decisions in the coming years about whether to keep our electricity grid clean, or burn more fossil fuels to keep the lights on,” she added. “These decisions need to be informed by the best possible evidence, and that can't happen if critical information is hidden.”
In a response to the OEB report on Monday, the IESO said its own initial analysis found that the error likely pushed wholesale electricity payments up by $225 million. That calculation assumed that the higher prices would have changed consumer behaviour, while upcoming electricity auctions were cited as a way to lower costs, it said.
In response to questions, a spokesperson said residential and small commercial consumers would have saved $11 million in electricity costs over the 11-month period, even as a typical bill increase loomed province-wide, while larger consumers would have paid an extra $14 million.
That is because residential and small commercial customers pay some costs via time-of-use rates, including a temporary recovery rate framework, the IESO said, while larger customers pay them in a way that reflects their share of overall electricity use during the five highest demand hours of the year.
The IESO said it could not compensate those that had paid too much, given the complexity of the system, and that the modelling error did not have a significant impact on ratepayers.
While acknowledging the effects of the mistake would vary among its customers, the IESO said the net market impact was less than $10 million, amid ongoing legislation to lower electricity rates in Ontario.
It said it would improve testing of its processes prior to deployment and agreed to publicly disclose errors that significantly affect the wholesale market in the future.
Eletrobras Privatization Strike sparks a 72-hour CNE walkout by Brazil's electricity workers, opposing asset sell-offs and grid privatization while pledging essential services; unions target President Wilson Ferreira Jr. over energy-sector reforms.
Key Points
A 72-hour CNE walkout by Brazil's electricity workers opposing Eletrobras sell-offs, while keeping essential services.
✅ 72-hour strike led by CNE unions and federations
✅ Targets privatization plans and leadership at Eletrobras
✅ Essential services maintained to avoid consumer impact
Brazil's national electricity workers' collective (CNE) has called for a 72-hour strike to protest the privatization of state-run electric company Eletrobras and its subsidiaries.
The CNE, which gathers the electricity workers' confederation, federations, unions and associations, said the strike is to begin at Monday midnight (0300 GMT) and last through midnight Wednesday, even as some utilities elsewhere have considered asking staff to live on site to maintain operations.
Workers are demanding the ouster of Eletrobras President Wilson Ferreira Jr., who they say is the leading promoter of the privatization move.
Some 24,000 workers are expected to take part in the strike. However, the CNE said it will not affect consumers by ensuring essential services, a pledge echoed by utilities managing costs elsewhere such as Manitoba Hydro's unpaid days off during the pandemic.
#google#
Eletrobras accounts for 32 percent of Brazil's installed energy generation capacity, mainly via hydroelectric plants. Besides, it also operates nuclear and thermonuclear plants, and solar and wind farms, reflecting trends captured by young Canadians' interest in electricity jobs in recent years.
The company distributes electricity in six northern and northeastern states, and handles 47 percent of the nation's electricity transmission lines, even as a U.S. grid pandemic warning has highlighted reliability risks.
The government owns a 63-percent stake in the company, a reminder that public policy shapes the sector, similar to Canada's future-of-work investment initiatives announced recently.
Ottawa Sewage Energy Exchange System uses wastewater heat recovery and efficient heat pumps to deliver renewable district energy, zero carbon heating and cooling, cutting greenhouse gas emissions at LeBreton Flats and scaling urban developments.
Key Points
A district energy system recovering wastewater heat via pumps to deliver zero carbon heating and cooling.
✅ Delivers 9 MW heating and cooling for 2.4M sq ft at LeBreton Flats
✅ Cuts 5,066 tonnes CO2e each year, reducing greenhouse gases
✅ Powers Odenak zero carbon housing via district energy
Ottawa is embarking on a groundbreaking initiative to harness the latent thermal energy within its wastewater system, in tandem with advances in energy storage in Ontario that strengthen grid resilience, marking a significant stride toward sustainable urban development. The Sewage Energy Exchange System (SEES) project, a collaborative effort led by the LeBreton Community Utility Partnership—which includes Envari Holding Inc. (a subsidiary of Hydro Ottawa) and Theia Partners—aims to revolutionize how the city powers its buildings.
Harnessing Wastewater for Sustainable Energy
The SEES will utilize advanced heat pump technology to extract thermal energy from the city's wastewater infrastructure, providing both heating and cooling to buildings within the LeBreton Flats redevelopment. This innovative approach eliminates the need for fossil fuels, aligning with Ottawa's commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting clean energy solutions across the province, including the Hydrogen Innovation Fund that supports new low-carbon pathways.
The system operates by diverting sewage from the municipal collection network into an external well, where it undergoes filtration to remove large solids. The filtered water is then passed through a heat exchanger, transferring thermal energy to the building's heating and cooling systems. After the energy is extracted, the treated water is safely returned to the city's sewer system.
Environmental and Economic Impact
Once fully implemented, the SEES is projected to deliver over 9 megawatts of heating and cooling capacity, servicing approximately 2.4 million square feet of development. This capacity is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 5,066 tonnes annually—equivalent to the electricity consumption of over 3,300 homes for a year. Such reductions are pivotal in helping Ottawa meet its ambitious goal of achieving a 96% reduction in community-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, as outlined in its Climate Change Master Plan and Energy Evolution strategy, and they align with Ontario's plan to rely on battery storage to meet rising demand across the grid.
Integration with the Odenak Development
The first phase of the SEES will support the Odenak development, a mixed-use project comprising two high-rise residential buildings. This development is poised to be Canada's largest residential zero-carbon project, echoing calls for Northern Ontario grid sustainability from community groups, featuring 601 housing units, with 41% designated as affordable housing. The integration of the SEES will ensure that Odenak operates entirely on renewable energy, setting a benchmark for future urban developments.
Broader Implications and Future Expansion
The SEES project is not just a localized initiative; it represents a scalable model for sustainable urban energy solutions that aligns with green energy investments in British Columbia and other jurisdictions. The LeBreton Community Utility Partnership is in discussions with the National Capital Commission to explore extending the SEES network to additional parcels within the LeBreton Flats redevelopment. Expanding the system could lead to economies of scale, further reducing costs and enhancing the environmental benefits.
Ottawa's venture into wastewater-based energy systems places it at the forefront of a growing trend in North America. Cities like Toronto and Vancouver have initiated similar projects, while related pilots such as the EV-to-grid pilot in Nova Scotia highlight complementary approaches, and European counterparts have long utilized sewage heat recovery systems. Ottawa's adoption of this technology underscores its commitment to innovation and sustainability in urban planning.
The SEES project at LeBreton Flats exemplifies how cities can repurpose existing infrastructure to create sustainable, low-carbon energy solutions. By transforming wastewater into a valuable energy resource, Ottawa is setting a precedent for environmentally responsible urban development. As the city moves forward with this initiative, it not only addresses immediate energy needs but also contributes to a cleaner, more sustainable future for its residents, even as the province accelerates Ontario's energy storage push to maintain reliability.
Canada Oil and Gas Emissions Cap sets five-year targets to cut sector emissions toward net-zero by 2050, alongside an EV mandate, carbon pricing signals, and support for carbon capture, clean energy jobs, climate policy.
Key Points
A federal policy to regulate and reduce oil and gas emissions via 5-year targets, reaching net-zero by 2050.
✅ Regulated 5-year milestones to cut oil and gas emissions to net-zero by 2050
✅ Interim EV mandate: 50% by 2030; 100% zero-emission sales by 2035
✅ $2B fund for clean energy jobs in oil- and gas-reliant communities
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau vowed to regulate total emissions from Canada’s oil and gas producers as he laid out his first major climate change promises of the campaign Sunday, a plan that was welcomed by several environmental and climate organizations.
Trudeau said that if re-elected, the Liberals will set out regulated five-year targets for emissions from oil and gas production to get them to net-zero emissions by 2050, a goal that, according to an IEA report will require more electricity, but also create a $2 billion fund to create jobs in oil and gas-reliant communities in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador.
“Let’s be realistic, over a quarter of Canada’s emissions come from our oil and gas sector. We need the leadership of these industries to decarbonize our country,” Trudeau said.
“That’s why we’ll make sure oil and gas emissions don’t increase and instead go down with achievable milestones,” while ensuring local economies can prosper.“
The Liberals are also introducing an interim electric vehicle mandate, which will require half the cars sold in Canada to be zero-emission by 2030, and because cleaning up electricity is critical to meeting climate pledges, the policy pairs with power-sector decarbonization, ahead of the final mandated target of 100 per cent by 2035.
Trudeau spoke in Cambridge, Ont., where protesters once again made an appearance amid a visible police presence. Officers carried one woman off the property when she refused to leave when asked.
Trudeau alluded to the protesters and their actions, which included sounding sirens and chanting expletives, as he defended his government’s record on climate change including progress in the electricity sector nationally, and touted its new plan.
“Sirens in the background may remind us that this is a climate emergency. That’s why we will move faster and be bolder,” he said.
Canada’s largest oilsands producers have already committed to reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but the policy proposed Sunday “calls the oil companies’ bluff” by making those goals a legislated requirement, said Keith Stewart, senior energy strategist with Greenpeace Canada.
The new timeline for electric vehicles also “sends a clear signal to auto companies to get cracking (and build them here),” he said on Twitter, even as proposals like a fully renewable grid by 2030 are debated today. “We’d like to see this happen faster but the shift away from voluntary targets to requirements is big.”
Merran Smith, executive director of Clean Energy Canada, a climate program at Simon Fraser University, said clean electricity, clean transportation and “phasing out oil and gas with accountable milestones” must be key priorities over the next decade, aligning with Canada’s race to net-zero and the role of renewable energy.
“Today’s announcement, which checks all of these boxes, is not just good ambition_it’s good policy. Policy that will drive down carbon pollution and drive up clean job growth and economic competitiveness. It is policy that will drive Canada forward with cleaner cars, power Canada with clean electricity, and invest in businesses that will last such as battery manufacturing, electric vehicle manufacturing and low carbon steel,” Smith said in an email.
Michael Bernstein, executive director of the climate policy organization Clean Prosperity, said the promises laid out Sunday offer a “strong boost” to the federal government’s previous climate commitments.
He said the organization prefers market incentives such as carbon pricing, that spur innovation over further regulation. But since the largest oilsands companies have already committed to reaching net-zero emissions, he said the newly unveiled policy could provide some support.
“ First, I would encourage the Liberal Party to release independent modelling showing the types of emissions reductions they expect to achieve with their new package of policies. Second, many policies are referred to in general terms so I hope the Liberal Party will provide further details in the coming days,” he said.
“Finally, the document does not specifically mention carbon capture or carbon dioxide removal technologies but both technologies will be critical to achieve some of the pledges in today’s announcement, especially reaching net-zero emissions in the oil a gas sector.”
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh painted the announcement as the latest in a string of “empty promises” from the Liberals on climate change, saying Canada has the highest increase in greenhouse gas emissions among all G7 countries, and that provinces like B.C. risk missing 2050 targets as well, he argued.
“Climate targets mean nothing when you don’t act on them. We can’t afford more of Justin Trudeau’s empty words on climate change,” he said in a statement.
The Trudeau Liberals submitted new targets to the United Nations in July, promising that Canada will curb emissions by 40 to 45 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030, building on the net-zero by 2050 plan announced earlier, officials say.
Alberta Energy Price Spike signals rising electricity and natural gas costs; lock in fixed rates as storage is low, demand surged in heat waves, and exports rose after Hurricane Ida, driving volatility and higher futures.
Key Points
An anticipated surge in Alberta electricity and natural gas prices, urging consumers to lock fixed rates to reduce risk.
✅ Fixed-rate gas near $3.79/GJ vs futures approaching $6/GJ
✅ Low storage after heat waves and U.S. export demand
✅ Switch providers or plans; UCA comparison tool helps
Energy economists are warning Albertans to review their gas and electricity bills and lock in a fixed rate if they haven't already done so because prices are expected to spike in the coming months.
"I have been urging anyone who will listen that every single Albertan should be on a fixed rate for this winter," University of Calgary energy economist Blake Shaffer said Monday. "And I say that for both natural gas and power."
Shaffer said people will rightly point out energy costs make up only roughly a third of their monthly bill. The rest of the costs for such things as delivery fees can't be avoided.
But, he said, "there is an energy component and it is meaningful in terms of savings."
For example, Shaffer said, when he checked last week, a consumer could sign a fixed rate gas contract for $3.79 a gigajoule and the current future price for gas is nearly $6 a gigajoule.
A typical household would use about 15 gigajoules a month, he said, so a consumer could save $30 to $45 a month for five months. For people on lower or fixed incomes, "that is a pretty significant saving."
Comparable savings can also be achieved with electricity, he said.
Shaffer said research has shown households that are least able to afford sharp increases in gas and electrical bills are less likely to pick up the phone and call their energy provider and either negotiate a lower fixed rate contract or jump to a new provider.
But, he said, it is definitely worth the time and effort, particularly as Calgary electricity bills are rising across the city. Alberta's Utilities Consumer Advocate has a handy cost comparison tool on its website that allows consumers to conduct regional price comparisons that will assist in making an informed decision.
"Folks should know that for most providers you can change back to a floating rate any time you want," Shaffer said.
Summer heat wave affected natural gas supply Why are energy prices set to spike in Alberta, which is a major producer of natural gas?
Sophie Simmonds, managing director of the brokerage firm Anova Energy, said Alberta is now generating the majority of its power using natural gas.
The heat wave in June and July created record electrical demand. Normally, natural gas is stored in the summer for use in the winter. But this year, there was much greater gas consumption in the summer and so less was stored.
On top of that, Alberta has been exporting much more natural gas to the United States since August and September because Hurricane Ida knocked out natural gas assets in the Gulf of Mexico.
"So what this means is we are actually going into winter with very, very low storage numbers," Simmonds said.
Why natural gas prices have surged to some of their highest levels in years Canadians to remain among world's top energy users even as government strives for net zero Consultant Matt Ayres said he believes rising electricity prices also are being affected by Alberta's transition from carbon-intensive fuel sources to less carbon-intensive fuel sources.
"That transition is not always smooth," said Ayres, who is also an adjunct assistant professor at the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy.
"It is my view that at least some of the price increases we are seeing on electricity comes down to difficulties imposed by that transition and also by a reduction in competition amongst generators, as well as power market overhaul debates shaping policy."
