IEA stokes doubts over worldÂ’s climate fight

By Reuters


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The world will have to bet on extreme measures to avoid serious global warming, the International Energy Agency said, adding to growing worries that governments have underestimated the problem.

The world will have to suck greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere because it was too late to rely on gradual curbs in heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions, it said.

The energy adviser to 28 rich countries detailed two paths for limiting warming to 2 and 3 degrees Celsius respectively, which would both require huge annual investments to deploy fossil fuels alternatives.

"Both scenarios imply that net greenhouse gas emissions turn negative — carbon absorption exceeds gross emissions — towards the end of the century," said the IEA's set-piece annual energy report, published recently.

That could involve the deployment of an untested technique to pump underground carbon dioxide produced from burning vegetation, using carbon capture and storage, and by planting more forests, the report added.

If the world carried on as normal without taking new steps to fight climate change temperature would rise in the long-term by up to 6 degrees.

Above 2 degrees warming, "hundreds of millions of people would face reduced water supplies," and above 3 degrees food production worldwide would be "very likely to decrease," a U.N. panel of climate scientists said last year.

Limiting warming to no more than 2 degrees would be especially expensive because it would involve scrapping and replacing dirty power plants at a cost of about $3.6 trillion from 2010-2030, the IEA report said.

That compares with global efforts in recent weeks to shore up the world economy at a cost of about $4 trillion.

A view that more than 2 degrees of global warming is inevitable has gained ground.

Greenhouse gases are already at high enough concentrations in the air to stoke that amount of warming — except that smoke and other pollution are blocking out the sun's rays, said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact research.

"This is masking two thirds of the global warming. We already have 2.4 degrees of warming in the system," he told Reuters.

On the positive side — regarding the cost of the climate fight — limiting greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels will also cut costly oil consumption.

Partly as a result of recent oil price rises, global spending on oil had quadrupled to 4 percent of global economic output (GDP) in 2007 compared to 1 percent in 1998, and that would rise to 5 percent, the IEA said.

"The only time the world has ever spent so much of its income on oil was in the early 1980s," the IEA said.

Another cost saving from the climate fight will be the avoided damage from droughts, floods and sea level rise, which British economist Nicholas Stern famously said could be 20 times the cost of curbing greenhouse gases.

"We start in a difficult place," Stern told Reuters. "The (pollution) in the atmosphere, give us time to bring that (CO2 in the atmosphere) back down to the kind of levels... that are consistent with a 50/50 chance of holding the overall temperature increase to 2 degrees centigrade."

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Hydro One shares jump 5.7 per cent after U.S. regulators reject $6.7B takeover

Hydro One Avista takeover rejection signals Washington regulators blocking a utility acquisition over governance risk, EPS dilution, and balance sheet impact, as investors applaud share price gains and a potential US$103M break fee.

 

Key Points

A regulator-led block of Hydro One's Avista bid, citing EPS dilution, balance sheet risk, and governance concerns.

✅ Washington denies approval; Idaho, Oregon decisions pending.

✅ EPS dilution avoided; balance sheet strength preserved.

✅ Shares rise 5.7%; US$103M break fee if deal collapses.

 

Opposition politicians may not like it but investors are applauding the rejection of Hydro One Ltd.'s $6.7-billion Avista takeover of U.S.-based utility Avista Corp.

Shares in the power company controlled by the Ontario government, which has also proposed a bill redesign to simplify statements, closed at $21.53, up $1.16 or 5.7 per cent, on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday.

On Wednesday, Washington State regulators said they would not allow Ontario's largest utility to buy Avista over concerns about political risk that the provincial government, which owns 47 per cent of Hydro One's shares, might meddle in Avista's operations.

Financial analysts had predicted investors would welcome the news because the deal, announced in July 2017, would have eroded earnings per share and weakened Hydro One's balance sheet.

"The Washington regulator's denial of Avista is a positive development for the shares, in our opinion," said analyst Ben Pham of BMO Capital Markets in a report on Wednesday.

"While this may sound odd, we note that the Avista deal is expected to be EPS dilutive and result in a weaker balance sheet for (Hydro One). Not acquiring Avista and refocusing its attention on its core Ontario franchise ... along with related interprovincial arrangements such as the Ontario-Quebec electricity deal under discussion would likely be viewed positively if the deal ultimately breaks."

Decisions are yet to come from Idaho and Oregon state regulators, but Washington was probably the most important as the state contains customers making up about 60 per cent of Avista's rate base, Pham said.

He pointed out that a US$103-million break fee is to be paid to Avista if the deal collapses due to a failure to obtain regulatory approval.

CIBC analyst Robert Catellier raised his 12-month Hydro One target price by 25 cents and said many shareholders will feel "relieved" that the deal had failed.

He warned that the company's earnings power could deteriorate as the province seeks to reduce power bills by 12 per cent, despite an Ontario-Quebec hydro deal that may not lower costs.

 

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Pandemic causes drop in electricity demand across the province: Manitoba Hydro

Manitoba Electricity Demand Drop reflects COVID-19 effects, lowering peak demand about 6% as businesses and offices close, impacting the regional grid; recession-like patterns emerge while Winnipeg water consumption stays steady and peak usage shifts later.

 

Key Points

An observed 6% decline in Manitoba peak electricity during COVID-19 due to closures; Winnipeg water use remains steady.

✅ Daily peak load down roughly 6% provincewide

✅ Business and office shutdowns drive lower consumption

✅ Winnipeg peak water time shifts to 9 a.m., volume steady

 

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a drop in the electricity demand across the province, according to Manitoba Hydro, mirroring the Ontario electricity usage decline reported elsewhere in Canada.

On Tuesday, Manitoba Hydro said it has tracked overall electrical use, which includes houses, farms and businesses both large and small, while also cautioning customers about pandemic-related scam calls in recent weeks.

Hydro said it has seen about a six per cent reduction in the daily peak electricity demand, adding this is due to the many businesses and downtown offices which are temporarily closed, even as residential electricity use has increased in many regions.


"Currently, the impact on Manitoba electricity demand appears to be consistent with what we saw during the 2008 recession," Bruce Owen, the media relations officer for Manitoba Hydro, noting a similar Ottawa demand decline during the pandemic, said in an email to CTV News.

Owen added this trend of reduced electricity demand is being seen across North America, with BC Hydro pandemic load patterns reported and the regional grid in the American Midwest – an area where Manitoba Hydro is a member.

While electricity demand is down, BC Hydro expects holiday usage to rise and water usage in Winnipeg has remained the same.

The City of Winnipeg said it has not seen any change in overall water consumption, but as Hydro One kept peak rates in Ontario, peak demand times have moved from 7 – 8 a.m. to 9 a.m.

 

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Massive power line will send Canadian hydropower to New York

Twin States Clean Energy Link connects New England to Hydro-Quebec via a 1,200 MW transmission line, DOE-backed capacity, underground segments, existing corridors, boosting renewable energy reliability across Vermont and New Hampshire with cross-border grid flexibility.

 

Key Points

DOE-backed 1,200 MW line linking Hydro-Quebec to New England, adding clean capacity with underground routes.

✅ 1,200 MW cross-border capacity for the New England grid

✅ Uses existing corridors; underground in VT and northern NH

✅ DOE capacity contract lowers risk and spurs investment

 

A proposal to build a new transmission line to connect New England with Canadian hydropower is one step closer to reality.

The U.S. Department of Energy announced Monday that it has selected the Twin States Clean Energy Link as one of three transmission projects that will be part of its $1.3 billion cross-border transmission initiative to add capacity to the grid.

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Twin States is a proposal from National Grid, a utility company that serves Massachusetts, New York, and Rhode Island, and also owns transmission in England and Wales as the region advances projects like the Scotland-to-England subsea link that expand renewable flows, and the non-profit Citizens Energy Corporation.

The transmission line would connect New England with power from Hydro-Quebec, moving into the United States from Canada in Northern Vermont and crossing into New Hampshire near Dalton. It would run through parts of Grafton, Merrimack, and Hillsborough counties, routing through a substation in Dunbarton and ending at a proposed new substation in Londonderry. (Here's a map of the Twin States proposal.)

The federal funding will allow the U.S. Department of Energy to purchase capacity on the planned transmission line, which officials say reduces the risk for other investors and can help encourage others to purchase capacity.

The project has gotten support from local officials in Vermont and New Hampshire, but there are still hurdles to cross. The contract negotiation process is beginning, National Grid said, and the proposal still needs approvals from regulators before construction could begin.

First Nations communities in Canada have opposed transmission lines connecting Hydro-Quebec with New England in the past, and the company has faced scrutiny from environmental groups.

What would Twin States look like?
Transmission projects, like the failed Northern Pass proposal, have been controversial in New England, though the Great Northern Transmission Line progressed in Minnesota.

But Reihaneh Irani-Famili, vice president of capital delivery, project management and construction at National Grid, said this one is different because the developers listened to community concerns before planning the project.

“They did not want new corridors of infrastructure, so we made sure that we're using existing right of way,” she said. “They did not want the visual impact and some of the newer corridors of infrastructure, we're making sure we're undergrounding portions of the line.”

In Vermont and northern New Hampshire, the transmission lines would be buried underground along state roads. South of Littleton, they would be located within existing transmission corridors.

The developers say the lines could provide 1,200 megawatts of transmission capacity. The project would have the ability to carry electricity from hydro facilities in Quebec to New England, and would also be able to bring electricity from New England into Quebec, a step toward broader macrogrid connectivity across regions.

“Those hydro dams become giant green batteries for the region, and they hold that water until we need the electrons,” Irani-Famili said. “So if you think about our energy system not as one that sees borders, but one that sees resources, this is connecting the Quebec resources to the New England resources and helping all of us get into that cleaner energy future with a lot less build than we otherwise would have.”

Irani-Famili says the transmission line could help facilitate more clean energy resources like offshore wind coming online. In a report released last week by New Hampshire’s Department of Energy, authors said importing Canadian hydropower could be one of the most cost-effective ways to move away from fossil fuels on the electric grid.

National Grid estimates the project will help save energy customers $8.3 billion in its first 12 years. The developers are constructing a $260 million “community benefits plan” that would take some profits from the transmission line and give that money back to communities that host the transmission lines and environmental justice communities in New England.

 

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Energy-insecure households in the U.S. pay 27% more for electricity than others

Community Solar for Low-Income Homes expands energy equity by delivering renewable energy access, predictable bill savings, and tax credit benefits to renters and energy-insecure households, accelerating distributed generation and storage adoption nationwide.

 

Key Points

A program model enabling renters and LMI households to subscribe to off-site solar and save on utility bills.

✅ Earn bill credits from shared solar generation.

✅ Expands access for renters and LMI subscribers.

✅ Often paired with storage and IRA tax credit adders.

 

On a square-foot basis, the issue of inequality is made worse by higher costs for energy usage in the nation. Efforts like community solar programs such as Maryland community solar are underway to boost low-income participation in the cost benefits of renewable energy.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that households that are considered energy insecure, or those that have the inability to adequately meet basic household energy costs, are paying more for electricity than their wealthier counterparts. 

On average in the United States in 2020, households were billed about $1.04 per square foot for all energy sources. For homes that did not report energy insecurity, that average was $0.98 per square foot, while homes with energy insecurity issues paid an average of $1.24 per square foot for energy. This means that U.S. residents that need the most support on their energy bills are stuck with costs 27% higher than their neighbors on square-foot-basis.

EIA said energy-insecure households have reduced or forgone basic necessities to pay energy bills, kept their houses at unsafe temperatures because of energy cost concerns, or been unable to repair heating or cooling equipment because of cost.

In 2020, households with income less than $10,000 a year were billed an average of $1.31 per square foot for energy, while households making $100,000 or more were billed an average of $0.96 per square foot, said EIA. Renters paid considerably more ($1.28 per square foot) than owners ($0.98 per square foot). There were also considerable differences between regions, with New England solar growth sparking grid upgrade debates, ethnic groups and races, and insulation levels, as seen below.

The energy transition toward renewables like solar has offered price stability, amid record solar and storage growth nationwide, but thus far energy-insecure communities have relatively been left behind. A recent Berkeley Lab report, Residential Solar-Adopter Income and Demographic Trends, indicates that even though the rate of solar adoption among low-income residents is increasing (from 5% in 2010 to 11% in 2021), that segment of energy consumers remains under-represented among solar adopters, relative to its share of the population.


Community solar efforts

As such, the United States is targeting communities most impacted by energy costs that have not benefitted from the transition, highlighting “Energy Communities” that are eligible for an additional 10% tax credit through funds made possible by the Inflation Reduction Act.

Additionally, a push for community solar development is taking place nationwide to extend access to affordable solar energy to renters and other residents that aren’t able to leverage finances to invest in predictable, low-cost residential solar systems. The Biden Administration set a goal this year to sign up 5 million community solar households, achieving $1 billion in bill savings by 2025. The community solar model only represents about 8% of the total distributed solar capacity in the nation. This target would entail a jump from 3 GW installed capacity to 20 GW by the target year. The Department of Energy estimates community solar subscribers save an average of 20% on their bills.

California this year passed AB 2316, the Community Renewable Energy Act takes aim at four acute problems in the state’s power market: reliability amid rising outage risks, rates, climate and equity. The law creates a community renewable energy program, including community solar-plus-storage, supported by cheaper batteries, to overcome access barriers for nearly half of Californians who rent or have low incomes. Community solar typically involves customers subscribing to an off-site solar facility, receiving a utility bill credit for the power it generates.

“Community renewable energy is a proven powerful tool to help close California’s clean energy gap, bringing much needed relief to millions struggling with high housing costs and utility debt,” said Alexis Sutterman, energy equity program manager at the California Environmental Justice Alliance.

The program has energy equity baked into its structure, working to make sure Californians of all income levels participate in the benefits of the energy transition. Not only does it open solar access to renters, the law ensures that at least 51% of subscribers are low-income customers, which is expected to make projects eligible for a 10% tax credit adder under the IRA.

“The money’s on the table now,” said Jeff Cramer, president and chief executive of the Coalition for Community Solar Access. “While there are groups pushing for solar access for all, and states with strong legislation, there are other pockets of interest in surprising places in the United States. For example, Louisiana has no policy for community solar or support for low-income residents going solar but the city of New Orleans has its own utility commission with a community solar program. In Nebraska, forward-looking co-operatives have created community solar projects.

Community solar markets are active in 22 states, with more expected to come online in the future as states pursue 100% clean energy targets across the country. However, the market is expected to require strong community outreach efforts to foster trust and gain subscribers.

“There is a distrust of community solar initially in LMI communities as many have been burned before by retail energy false promises,” said Eric LaMora, executive director, community solar, Nautilus Solar on a panel at the Solar Energy Industries Association Finance, Tax, and Buyers seminar. “People are suspicious but there really are no hooks with community solar.”

LMI residents are leery to provide tax records or much documents at all in order to sign up for community solar, LaMora said. “We were surprised to see less of a default rate with LMI residents. We attribute this to the fact that they see significant savings on their electric bill, making it easier to pay each month,” he said.

 

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Tunisia invests in major wind farm as part of longterm renewable energy plan

Sidi Mansour Wind Farm Tunisia will deliver 30 MW as an IPP, backed by UPC Renewables and CFM, under a STEG PPA, supporting 2030 renewable energy targets, grid connection, job creation, and CO2 emissions reduction.

 

Key Points

A 30 MW wind IPP by UPC and CFM in Sidi Mansour, supplying STEG and advancing Tunisia's 2030 renewable target.

✅ 30 MW capacity under STEG PPA, first wind IPP in Tunisia

✅ Co-developed by UPC Renewables and Climate Fund Managers

✅ Cuts CO2 by up to 56,645 t and creates about 100 jobs

 

UPC Renewables (UPC) and the Climate Fund Managers (CFM) have partnered to develop a 30 megawatt wind farm in Sidi Mansour, Tunisia, which, amid regional wind expansion efforts, will help the country meet its 30% renewable energy target by 2030.

Tunisia announced the launch of its solar energy plan in 2016, with projects like the 10 MW Tunisian solar park aiming to increase the role of renewables in its electricity generation mix ten-fold to 30%,

This Sidi Mansour Project will help Tunisia meet its goals, reducing its reliance on imported fossil fuels and, mirroring 90 MW Spanish wind build milestones, demonstrating to the world that it is serious about further development of renewable energy investment.

“Chams Enfidha”, the first solar energy station in Tunisia with a capacity of 1 megawatt and located in the Enfidha region. (Ministry of Energy, Mines and Energy Transition Facebook page)

This project will also be among the country’s first Independent Power Producers (IPP). CFM is acting as sponsor, financial adviser and co-developer on the project, in a landscape shaped by IRENA-ADFD funding in developing countries, while UPC will lead the development with its local team. The team will be in charge of permitting, grid connection, land securitisation, assessment of wind resources, contract procurement and engineering.

UPC was selected under the “Authorisation Scheme” tender for the project in 2016, similar to utility-scale developments like a 450 MW U.S. wind farm, and promptly signed a power purchase agreement with Société Tunisienne Electricité et du Gaz (STEG).

Brian Caffyn, chairman of UPC Group, said: “We can start the construction of the Sidi Mansour wind farm in 2020, helping stimulate the Tunisian economy, create local jobs and a social plan for local communities while respecting international environmental protection guidelines.”

Sebastian Surie, CFM’s regional head of Africa, added: “CFM is thrilled to partner with a leading wind developer in the Sidi Mansour Wind Project to assist Tunisia in meeting its renewable energy goals. As potentially the first Wind IPP in Tunisia, this Project will be a testament to how CI1’s full life-cycle financing solution can unlock investment in renewable energy in new markets, as seen in an Irish offshore wind project globally.”

The project will not only provide electricity, but also reduce CO2 emissions by up to 56,645 tonnes and create some 100 new jobs.

Wind turbine in El Haouaria, Tunisia, highlighting advances such as a huge offshore wind turbine that can power 18,000 homes. (Reuters)

Tunisia’s first power station, “Chams Enfidha,” inaugurated at the beginning of July, has a capacity of one megawatt, with an estimated cost of 3.3 million dinars ($1.18 million). The state invested 2.3 million dinars into the project ($820,000), with the remaining 1 million dinars ($360,000) provided by a private investor.

 

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Brazil government considers emergency Coronavirus loans for power sector

Brazil Energy Emergency Loan Package aims to bolster utilities via BNDES as coronavirus curbs electricity demand. Aneel and the Mines and Energy Ministry weigh measures while Eletrobras privatization and auctions face delays.

 

Key Points

An emergency plan supporting Brazilian utilities via BNDES and banks during coronavirus demand slumps and payment risks.

✅ Modeled on 2014-2015 sector loans via BNDES and private banks

✅ Addresses cash flow from lower demand and bill nonpayment

✅ Auctions and Eletrobras privatization delayed amid outbreak

 

Brazil’s government is considering an emergency loan package for energy distributors struggling with lower energy use and facing lost revenues because of the coronavirus outbreak, echoing strains seen elsewhere such as Germany's utility troubles during the energy crisis, an industry group told Reuters.

Marcos Madureira, president of Brazilian energy distributors association Abradee, said the package being negotiated by companies and the government could involve loans from state development bank BNDES or a pool of banks, but that the value of the loans and other details was not yet settled.

Also, Brazil’s Mines and Energy Ministry is indefinitely postponing projects to auction off energy transmission and generation assets planned for this year because of the coronavirus, even as the need for electricity during COVID-19 remained critical, it said in the Official Gazette.

The coronavirus outbreak will also delay the privatization of state-owned utility Eletrobras, its chief executive officer said on Monday.

The potential loan package under discussion would resemble a similar measure in 2014 and 2015 that offered about 22 billion reais ($4.2 billion) in loans to the sector as Brazil was entering its deepest recession on record, and drawing comparisons to a proposed Texas market bailout after a winter storm, Madureira said.

Public and private banks including BNDES, Caixa Economica Federal, Itau Unibanco and Banco Bradesco participated in those loans.

Three sources involved in the discussions said on condition of anonymity that the Mines and Energy Ministry and energy regulator Aneel were considering the matter.

Aneel declined to comment. The Mines and Energy Ministry and BNDES did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Energy distributors worry that reduced electricity demand during COVID-19 could result in deep revenue losses.

The coronavirus has led to widespread lockdowns of non-essential businesses in Brazil, while citizens are being told to stay home. That is causing lost income for many hourly and informal workers in Brazil, who could be unable to pay their electricity bills, raising risks of pandemic power shut-offs for vulnerable households.

The government sees a loan package as a way to stave off a potential chain of defaults in the sector, a move discussed alongside measures such as a Brazil tax strategy on energy prices, one of the sources said.

On a conference call with investors about the company’s latest earnings, Eletrobras CEO Wilson Ferreira Jr. said privatization would be delayed, without giving any more details on the projected time scale.

The largest investors in Brazil’s energy distribution sector include Italy’s Enel, Spain’s Iberdrola via its subsidiary Neoenergia and China’s State Grid via CPFL Energia, with Chinese interest also evidenced by CTG's bid for EDP, as well as local players Energisa e Equatorial Energia. 

 

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