Low-emissions sources are set to cover almost all the growth in global electricity demand in the next three years


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IEA Electricity Market Outlook 2023-2025 projects faster demand growth as renewables and nuclear dominate supply, stabilizing power-sector carbon emissions, with Asia leading expansion despite energy crisis shocks and weather-driven volatility.

 

Key Points

IEA forecast for 2023-2025 electricity demand: renewables and nuclear meet growth as power-sector emissions hold steady.

✅ Asia drives >70% of demand growth

✅ Renewables and nuclear meet most new supply

✅ CO2 intensity declines; grid flexibility vital

 

The world’s electricity demand growth slowed only slightly in 2022, despite headwinds from the energy crisis, and is expected to accelerate in the years ahead

Renewables are set to dominate the growth of the world’s electricity supply over the next three years as, renewables eclipse coal in global generation, together with nuclear power they meet the vast majority of the increase in global demand through to 2025, making significant rises in the power sector’s carbon emissions unlikely, according to a new IEA report.

After slowing slightly last year to 2% amid the turmoil of the global energy crisis and exceptional weather conditions in some regions, the growth in world electricity demand is expected to accelerate to an average of 3% over the next three years, the IEA’s Electricity Market Report 2023 finds. Emerging and developing economies in Asia are the driving forces behind this faster pace, which is a step up from average growth of 2.4% during the years before the pandemic and above pre-pandemic levels globally.

More than 70% of the increase in global electricity demand over the next three years is expected to come from China, India and Southeast Asia, as Asia’s power use nears half of the world by mid-decade, although considerable uncertainties remain over trends in China as its economy emerges from strict Covid restrictions. China’s share of global electricity consumption is currently forecast to rise to a new record of one-third by 2025, up from one-quarter in 2015. At the same time, advanced economies are seeking to expand electricity use to displace fossil fuels in sectors such as transport, heating and industry.

“The world’s growing demand for electricity is set to accelerate, adding more than double Japan’s current electricity consumption over the next three years,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “The good news is that renewables and nuclear power are growing quickly enough to meet almost all this additional appetite, suggesting we are close to a tipping point for power sector emissions. Governments now need to enable low-emissions sources to grow even faster and drive down emissions so that the world can ensure secure electricity supplies while reaching climate goals.”

While natural gas-fired power generation in the European Union is forecast to fall in the coming years, as wind and solar outpaced gas in 2022, based on current trends, significant growth in the Middle East is set to partly offset this decrease. Sharp spikes in natural gas prices amid the energy crisis have in turn fuelled soaring electricity prices in some markets, particularly in Europe, prompting debate in policy circles over reforms to power market design.

Meanwhile, expected declines in coal-fired generation in Europe and the Americas are likely to be matched by a rise in the Asia-Pacific region, despite increases in nuclear power deployment and restarts of plants in some countries such as Japan. This means that after reaching an all-time high in 2022, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from global power generation are set to remain around the same level through 2025.

The strong growth of renewables means their share of the global power generation mix is forecast to rise from 29% in 2022 to 35% in 2025, with the shares of coal- and gas-fired generation falling. As a result, the CO2 intensity of global power generation will continue to decrease in the coming years. Europe bucked this global trend last year, however. The CO2 intensity of Europe’s power generation increased as a result of higher use of coal and gas amid steep drops in output from both hydropower, due to drought, and nuclear power, due to plant closures and maintenance. This setback will be temporary, though, as Europe’s power generation emissions are expected to decrease on average by about 10% a year through 2025.

Electricity demand trends varied widely by region in 2022. India’s electricity consumption rose strongly, while China’s growth was more subdued due to its zero-Covid policy weighing heavily on economic activity. The United States recorded a robust increase in demand, driven by economic activity and higher residential use amid hotter summer weather and a colder-than-normal winter, even as electricity sales projections continue to decline according to some outlooks.

Demand in the European Union contracted due to unusually mild winter weather and a decline in electricity consumption in the industrial sector, which significantly scaled back production because of high energy prices and supply disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The 3.5% decrease in EU demand was its second largest percentage decline since the global financial crisis in 2009, with the largest being the exceptional contraction due to the COVID-19 shock in 2020.

The new IEA report notes that electricity demand and supply worldwide are becoming increasingly weather dependent, with extreme conditions a recurring theme in 2022. In addition to the drought in Europe, there were heatwaves in India, resulting in the country’s highest ever peak in power demand. Similarly, central and eastern regions of China were hit by heatwaves and drought, which caused demand for air conditioning to surge amid reduced hydropower generation in Sichuan province. The United States also saw severe winter storms in December, triggering massive power outages.

These highlight the need for faster decarbonisation and accelerated deployment of clean energy technologies, the report says. At the same time, as the clean energy transition gathers pace, the impact of weather events on electricity demand will intensify due to the increased electrification of heating, while the share of weather-dependent renewables will continue to grow in the generation mix. In such a world, increasing the flexibility of power systems, which are under growing strain across grids and markets, while ensuring security of supply and resilience of networks will be crucial.

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The Spanish inventor creating electricity from plants

Bioo Soil-Generated Electricity turns biological batteries and photosynthesis into renewable energy, powering IoT sensors for smart farming and lighting, using microbe-powered soil electrochemistry to cut battery waste, reduce costs, and scale sustainable agritech infrastructure.

 

Key Points

Bioo Soil-Generated Electricity powers IoT sensors and lighting using soil microbes, delivering clean renewable energy.

✅ Microbe-driven soil batteries replace disposable chemical cells

✅ Powers IoT agritech sensors for moisture, pH, and temperature

✅ Cuts maintenance and costs while enabling sustainable farming

 

SCENES shines a spotlight on youth around the world that are breaking down barriers and creating change. The character-driven short films will inspire and amaze, as these young change-makers tell their remarkable stories.

Pablo Vidarte is a born inventor. At the age of eight, he was programming video games. By 16, he was challenging NASA and competing with the Spanish army to enhance the efficiency of external combustion engines. "I wanted to perfect a system that NASA did in 2002 oriented to powering cars. I was able to increase that efficiency by 60 per cent, which was pretty cool," Pablo explained. Aged 18, he created his first company specialising in artificial intelligence. A year later, he founded Bioo, a revolutionary startup that generates electricity from plants' photosynthesis.

"Imagine, being in the middle of a park or a street and being able to touch a plant and turn on the lights of that specific area," Pablo told Scenes. "Imagine storing the memories of humanity itself in nature. Imagine storing voice messages in a library that is an open field where you can go and touch the plants and communicate and interact with them. That's what we do at Bioo," he added.

The creation of Bioo, however, was not a walk in the park. Pablo relied on nanotechnology engineers and biologists volunteering their time to turn his idea of biological batteries, inspired by biological design, into a reality. It took a year for a prototype to be created and an investor to come on board. Today, Bioo is turning plants into biological switches, generating renewable energy from nature, and transforming the environment.

"We realised that we were basically killing the planet, and then we invented things like solar panels and solutions like peer-to-peer energy that we're able to prevent things from getting worse, but the next step is to be able to reverse the whole equation to revive that planet that we're starting to lose," the 25-year-old explained.

Batteries creating electricity from soil
Bioo has designed biological batteries that generate electricity from the energy released when organic soil decomposes. Like traditional batteries, they have an anode and a cathode, but instead of using materials like lithium to power them, organic matter is used as fuel. When microorganisms break down the organic soil, electrons are released. These electrons are then transported from the anode to the cathode, and a current of electricity is created. The batteries come in the shape of a rectangular box and can be dug into any fertile soil. They produce up to 200Wh a year per square metre, and just as some tidal projects use underwater kites to harvest energy, these systems tap natural processes.

Bioo's batteries are limited to low-power applications, but they have grown in popularity and are set to transform the agriculture industry.

Cost savings for farmers
Farmers can monitor their crops using a large network of sensors. The sensors allow them to analyse growing conditions, such as soil moisture, PH levels and air temperature. Almost 90 per cent of the power used to run the sensors come from chemical batteries, which deplete, underscoring the renewable energy storage problem that new solutions target.

"The huge issue is that chemical batteries need to be replaced every single year. But the problem is that you literally need an army of people replacing batteries and recalibrating them," Pablo explains. "What we do, it's literally a solution that is hidden, and that's nourishing from the soil itself and has the same cost as using chemical batteries. So the investment is basically returned in the first year," Pablo added.

Bioo has partnered with Bayer, a leading agricultural producer, to trial their soil-powered sensors on 50 million hectares of agricultural land. If successful, the corporation could save €1.5 billion each year. Making it a game-changer for farmers around the world.

A BioTech World
In addition to agriculture, Bioo's batteries are now being installed in shopping centres, offices and hospitals to generate clean power for lighting, while other companies are using ocean and river power to diversify clean generation portfolios.

Pablo's goal is to create a more environmentally efficient world, so shares his technology with international tech companies as green hydrogen projects scale globally. "I wanted to do something that could really mean a change for our world. Our ambition right now is to create a biotech world, a world that is totally interconnected with nature," he said.

As Bioo continues to develop its technology, Pablo believes that soil-generated electricity will become a leader in the global energy market, aligning with progress toward cheap, abundant electricity becoming a reality worldwide.

 

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Canada's largest electricity battery storage project coming to southwestern Ontario

Oneida Energy Storage Project, a 250 MW lithium-ion battery in Haldimand County, enhances Ontario's clean energy capacity, grid reliability, and peak demand management, developed with Six Nations partners and private-public collaboration.

 

Key Points

A 250 MW lithium-ion battery in Ontario storing power to stabilize the grid and deliver clean electricity.

✅ 250 MW lithium-ion grid-scale battery in Haldimand County

✅ Developed with Six Nations, Northland Power, NRStor, Aecon

✅ Enhances grid reliability, peak shaving, emissions reduction

 

The Ontario government announced it is working to build Canada's largest electricity battery storage project in Haldimand County, part of Ontario's push into energy storage amid a looming supply crunch. Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland made the announcement in Ohsweken, Ont.

The 250-megawatt Oneida Energy storage project is being developed in partnership with the Six Nations of the Grand River Development Corporation, Northland Power, NRStor and Aecon Group.

The Ontario government announced on Friday it is working to build Canada's largest electricity battery storage project in Haldimand County.

On Friday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland made the announcement in Ohsweken, Ont.

The 250-megawatt Oneida Energy storage project is being developed in partnership with the Six Nations of the Grand River Development Corporation, Northland Power, NRStor and Aecon Group.

“It will more than double the province's energy storage resources and provide enough electricity to power a city approximately the size of Oshawa,” said Ford, noting Ontario's growing battery storage expansion across the grid.

“We need to continue to find ways to keep our energy clean and green,” said Ford, including initiatives like the Hydrogen Innovation Fund to spur innovation.

The federal government said they are providing a further $50 million in funding, coinciding with national investments such as the B.C. battery plant to scale capacity.

The premier said the project will begin operating in 2025 and will more than double the amount of clean energy storage.

Officials with the Six Nations said they have invested in the project that will provide economic returns and 97 per cent of the construction workforce to build it.

"This project is an example of what is possible when private and public companies, multiple levels of government, and their agencies work alongside a progressive Indigenous partner in pursuit of innovative solutions,” said Matt Jamieson, President and CEO of Six nations of the Grand River Development Corporation. “As with all our development efforts, we have studied the project to ensure it aligns with our community values, we are confident the outcome will create ratepayer savings, and move us closer to a Net Zero future for our coming generations."

According to the province, it has directed the independent electricity system operator to enter into a 20-year contract for this project with a goal to grow the province's clean energy supply, alongside transmission efforts like the Lake Erie Connector to enhance reliability.

The province said the Oneida Energy storage project is expected to reduce emissions by between 2.2 to 4.1 million tonnes, the equivalent to taking up to 40,000 cars off the road.

The project will use large scale lithium batteries, with regional supply bolstered by the Niagara battery plant, to store surplus energy from the power grid then feed it back into the system when it’s needed.

“Power that is generated and it can’t be utilized, this system will help harness that, store it for a period of time, and it will maximize value for the rate payer,” said Jamieson.

Jamieson said he is proud that the Six Nations is a founding developer in the project.

The facility will not actually be in Six Nations. It will be near the community of Jarvis in Haldimand County.
For Six Nationals elected Chief Mark Hill, it’s a major win as Ontario's EV sector grows with the Oakville EV deal and related projects.

“We want to continue to be a driver. We want to show Canada that we can also be a part of green solution,” Hill said.

But Hill admitted the Six Nations Community remains deeply divided over a number of longstanding issues.

“We still have a lot of internal affairs within our own community that we have to deal with. I think it’s really time once and for all to come together and figure this out,” said Hill.

The traditional leadership said they were left out of the decision making.

“No voice of ours was even heard today in that building,” said Deyohowe:to, the chief of the Cayuga Snipe Clan.

According to the Cayuga Snipe Clan, consultation with the Haudenasauene council is required for this type of development but they said it didn't happen.

“We’ve never heard of this before. No one came to the community and said this was going to happen and for the community we are not going to let that happen,” said Deyohowe:to.

The Six Nations Development Corporation said it did reach out to the Haudenosaunee chiefs and sent multiple letters in 2021 inviting them to participate.

 

 

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Netherlands' Renewables Drive Putting Pressure On Grid

The Netherlands grid crisis exposes how rapid renewable energy growth is straining transmission capacity. Solar, wind, and electric vehicle demand are overloading networks, forcing officials to urge reduced peak-time power use and accelerate national grid modernization plans.

 

Main Points

The Netherlands grid crisis refers to national electricity congestion caused by surging renewable energy generation and rising consumer demand.

✅ Grid congestion from rapid solar and wind expansion

✅ Strained transmission and distribution capacity

✅ National investment in smart grid upgrades

 

The Dutch government is urging households to reduce electricity consumption between 16:00 and 21:00 — a signal that the country’s once-stable power grid is under serious stress. The call comes amid an accelerating shift to wind and solar power that is overwhelming transmission infrastructure and creating “grid congestion” across regions, as seen in Nordic grid constraints this year.

In a government television campaign, a narrator warns: “When everyone uses electricity at the same time, our power grid can become overloaded. That could lead to failures — so please try to use less electricity between 4 pm and 9 pm.” The plea reflects a system where supply occasionally outpaces the grid’s ability to distribute it, with some regions abroad issuing summer blackout warnings already.

According to Dutch energy firm Eneco’s CEO, Kys-Jan Lamo, the root of the problem lies in the mismatch between modern renewable generation and a grid built for centralized fossil fuel plants. He notes that 70% of Eneco’s output already comes from solar and wind, and this “grid congestion is like traffic on the power lines.” Lamo explains:

“The grid congestion is caused by too much demand in some areas of the network, or by too much supply being pushed into the grid beyond what the network can carry.”

He adds that many of the transmission lines in residential areas are narrow — a legacy of when fewer and larger power plants fed electricity through major feeder lines, underscoring grid vulnerabilities seen elsewhere today. Under the new model, renewable generation occurs everywhere: “This means that electricity is now fed into the grid even in peripheral areas with relatively fine lines — and those lines cannot always cope.”

Experts warn that resolving these issues will demand years of planning and immense investment in smarter grid infrastructure over the coming years. Damien Ernst, an electrical engineering professor at Liège University and respected voice on European grids, states that the Netherlands is experiencing a “grid crisis” brought on by “insufficient investment in distribution and transmission networks.” He emphasizes that the speed of renewable deployment has outpaced the grid’s capacity to absorb it.

Eneco operates a “virtual power plant” control system — described by Lamo as “the brain we run” — that dynamically balances supply and demand. During periods of oversupply, the system can curtail wind turbines or shut down solar panels. Conversely, during peak demand, the system can throttle back electricity provision to participating customers in exchange for lower tariffs. However, these techniques only mitigate strain — they cannot replace the need for physical upgrades or bolster resilience to extreme weather outages alone.

The bottleneck has begun limiting new connections: “Consumers often want to install heat pumps or charge electric vehicles, but they increasingly find it difficult to get the necessary network capacity,” Lamo warns. Businesses too are struggling. “Companies often want to expand operations, but cannot get additional capacity from grid operators. Even new housing developments are affected, since there’s insufficient infrastructure to connect whole communities.”

Currently, thousands of businesses are queuing for network access. TenneT, the national grid operator, estimates that 8,000 firms await initial connection approval, and another 12,000 seek to increase their capacity allocations. Stakeholders warn that unresolved congestion risks choking economic growth.

According to Kys-Jan Lamo: “Looking back, almost all of this could have been prevented.” He acknowledges that post-2015 climate commitments placed heavy emphasis on adding generation and on grid modernization costs more broadly, but “we somewhat underestimated the impact on grid capacity.”

In response, the government has introduced a national “Grid Congestion Action Plan,” aiming to accelerate approvals for infrastructure expansions and to refine regulations to promote smarter grid use. At the same time, feed-in incentives for solar power are being scaled back in some regions, and certain areas may even impose charges to integrate new solar systems into the grid.

The scale of what’s needed is vast. TenneT has proposed adding roughly 100,000 km of new power lines by 2050 and investing in doubling or tripling existing capacity in many areas. However, permit processes can take eight years before construction begins, and many projects require an additional two years to complete. As Lamo points out, “the pace of energy transition far exceeds the grid’s existing capacity — and every new connection request simply extends waiting lists.”

Unless grid expansion keeps up, and as climate pressures intensify, the very clean energy future the Netherlands is striving for may remain constrained by the physics of distribution.

 

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Massachusetts Issues Energy Storage Solicitation Offering $10M

Massachusetts Energy Storage Solicitation offers grants and matching funds via MassCEC and DOER for grid-connected, behind-the-meter projects, utility partners, and innovative business models, targeting 600 MW, clean energy leadership, and ratepayer savings.

 

Key Points

MassCEC and DOER matching-fund program for grid-connected storage pilots, advancing innovation and ratepayer savings.

✅ $100k-$1.25M matching funds; 50% cost share required

✅ Grid-connected, utility-partnered and behind-the-meter eligible

✅ 10-15 awards; proposals due June 9; install within 18 months

 

Massachusetts released a much-awaited energy storage solicitation on Thursday offering up to $10 million for new projects.

Issued by the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center (MassCEC) and the Department of Energy Resources (DOER), the solicitation makes available $100,000 to $1.25 million in matching funds for each chosen project.

The solicitation springs from a state report issued last year that found Massachusetts could save electricity ratepayers $800 million by incorporating 600 MW of energy storage projects. The state plans to set a specific energy storage goal, now the subject of a separate proceeding before the DOER.

The state is offering money for projects that showcase examples of future storage deployment, help to grow the state’s energy storage economy, and contribute to the state’s clean energy innovation leadership.

MassCEC anticipates making about 10-15 awards. Applicants must supply at least 50 percent of total project cost.

The state is offering money for projects that showcase examples of future storage deployment, help to grow the state’s energy storage economy, and contribute to the state’s clean energy innovation leadership.

MassCEC anticipates making about 10-15 awards. Applicants must supply at least 50 percent of total project cost.

The state plans to allot about half of the money from the energy storage solicitation to projects that include utility partners. Both distribution scale and behind-the-meter projects, including net-zero buildings among others, will be considered, but must be grid connected.

The solicitation seeks innovative business models that showcase the commercial value of energy storage in light of the specific local energy challenges and opportunities in Massachusetts.

Projects also should demonstrate multiple benefits/value streams to ratepayers, the local utility, or wholesale market.

And finally, projects should help uncover market and regulatory issues as well as monetization and financing barriers.

The state anticipates teams forming to apply for the grants. Teams may include public and private entities and are are encouraged to include the local utility.

Proposals are due June 9. The state expects to notify winners September 8, with contracts issued within the following month. Projects must be installed within 18 months of receiving contracts.

 

 

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Electric vehicles can fight climate change, but they’re not a silver bullet: U of T study

EV Adoption Limits highlight that electric vehicles alone cannot meet emissions targets; life cycle assessment, carbon budgets, clean grids, public transit, and battery materials constraints demand broader decarbonization strategies, city redesign, and active travel.

 

Key Points

EV Adoption Limits show EVs alone cannot hit climate targets; modal shift, clean grids, and travel demand are essential.

✅ 350M EVs by 2050 still miss 2 C goals without major mode shift

✅ Grid demand rises 41%, requiring clean power and smart charging

✅ Battery materials constraints need recycling, supply diversification

 

Today there are more than seven million electric vehicles (EVs) in operation around the world, compared with only about 20,000 a decade ago. It’s a massive change – but according to a group of researchers at the University of Toronto’s Faculty of Applied Science & Engineering, it won’t be nearly enough to address the global climate crisis. 

“A lot of people think that a large-scale shift to EVs will mostly solve our climate problems in the passenger vehicle sector,” says Alexandre Milovanoff, a PhD student and lead author of a new paper published in Nature Climate Change. 

“I think a better way to look at it is this: EVs are necessary, but on their own, they are not sufficient.” 

Around the world, many governments are already going all-in on EVs. In Norway, for example, where EVs already account for half of new vehicle sales, the government has said it plans to eliminate sales of new internal combustion vehicles by 2025. The Netherlands aims to follow suit by 2030, with France and Canada's EV goals aiming to follow by 2040. Just last week, California announced plans to ban sales of new internal combustion vehicles by 2035.

Milovanoff and his supervisors in the department of civil and mineral engineering – Assistant Professor Daniel Posen and Professor Heather MacLean – are experts in life cycle assessment, which involves modelling the impacts of technological changes across a range of environmental factors. 

They decided to run a detailed analysis of what a large-scale shift to EVs would mean in terms of emissions and related impacts. As a test market, they chose the United States, which is second only to China in terms of passenger vehicle sales. 

“We picked the U.S. because they have large, heavy vehicles, as well as high vehicle ownership per capita and high rate of travel per capita,” says Milovanoff. “There is also lots of high-quality data available, so we felt it would give us the clearest answers.” 

The team built computer models to estimate how many electric vehicles would be needed to keep the increase in global average temperatures to less than 2 C above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100, a target often cited by climate researchers. 

“We came up with a novel method to convert this target into a carbon budget for U.S. passenger vehicles, and then determined how many EVs would be needed to stay within that budget,” says Posen. “It turns out to be a lot.” 

Based on the scenarios modelled by the team, the U.S. would need to have about 350 million EVs on the road by 2050 in order to meet the target emissions reductions. That works out to about 90 per cent of the total vehicles estimated to be in operation at that time. 

“To put that in perspective, right now the total proportion of EVs on the road in the U.S. is about 0.3 per cent,” says Milovanoff. 

“It’s true that sales are growing fast, but even the most optimistic projections of an electric-car revolution suggest that by 2050, the U.S. fleet will only be at about 50 per cent EVs.” 

The team says that, in addition to the barriers of consumer preferences for EV deployment, there are technological barriers such as the strain that EVs would place on the country’s electricity infrastructure, though proper grid management can ease integration. 

According to the paper, a fleet of 350 million EVs would increase annual electricity demand by 1,730 terawatt hours, or about 41 per cent of current levels. This would require massive investment in infrastructure and new power plants, some of which would almost certainly run on fossil fuels in some regions. 

The shift could also impact what’s known as the demand curve – the way that demand for electricity rises and falls at different times of day – which would make managing the national electrical grid more complex, though vehicle-to-grid strategies could help smooth peaks. Finally, there are technical challenges stemming from the supply of critical materials for batteries, including lithium, cobalt and manganese. 

The team concludes that getting to 90 per cent EV ownership by 2050 is an unrealistic scenario. Instead, what they recommend is a mix of policies, rather than relying solely on a 2035 EV sales mandate as a singular lever, including many designed to shift people out of personal passenger vehicles in favour of other modes of transportation. 

These could include massive investment in public transit – subways, commuter trains, buses – as well as the redesign of cities to allow for more trips to be taken via active modes such as bicycles or on foot. They could also include strategies such as telecommuting, a shift already spotlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

“EVs really do reduce emissions, which are linked to fewer asthma-related ER visits in local studies, but they don’t get us out of having to do the things we already know we need to do,” says MacLean. “We need to rethink our behaviours, the design of our cities, and even aspects of our culture. Everybody has to take responsibility for this.” 

The research received support from the Hatch Graduate Scholarship for Sustainable Energy Research and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.

 

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Within A Decade, We Will All Be Driving Electric Cars

Electric Vehicle Price Parity 2027 signals cheaper EV manufacturing as battery costs plunge, widening model lineups, and tighter EU emissions rules; UBS and BloombergNEF foresee parity, with TCO advantages over ICE amid growing fast-charging networks.

 

Key Points

EV cost parity in 2027 when manufacturing undercuts ICE, led by cheaper batteries, wider lineups, and emissions policy.

✅ Battery costs drop 58% next decade, after 88% fall

✅ Manufacturing parity across segments from 2027

✅ TCO favors EVs; charging networks expand globally

 

A Bloomberg/NEF report commissioned by Transport & Environment forecasts 2027 as the year when electric vehicles will start to become cheaper to manufacture than their internal combustion equivalents across all segments, aligning with analyses that the EV age is arriving ahead of schedule for consumers and manufacturers alike, mainly due to a sharp drop in battery prices and the appearance of new models by more manufacturers.

Batteries, which have fallen in price by 88% over the past decade and are expected to plunge by a further 58% over the next 10 years, make up between one-quarter and two-fifths of the total price of a vehicle. The average pre-tax price of a mid-range electric vehicle is around €33,300, and higher upfront prices concern many UK buyers compared to €18,600 for its diesel or gasoline equivalent. In 2026, both are expected to cost around €19,000, while in 2030, the same electric car will cost €16,300 before tax, while its internal combustion equivalent will cost €19,900, and that’s without factoring in government incentives.

Other reports, such as a recent one by UBS, put the date of parity a few years earlier, by 2024, after which they say there will be little reason left to buy a non-electric vehicle, as the market has expanded from near zero to 2 million in just five years.

In Europe, carmakers will become a particular stakeholder in this transition due to heavy fines for exceeding emissions limits calculated on the basis of the total number of vehicles sold. Increasing the percentage of electric vehicles in the annual sales portfolio is seen by the industry as the only way to avoid these fines. In addition to brands such as Bentley or Jaguar Land Rover, which have announced the total abandonment of internal combustion engine technology by 2025, or Volvo, which has set 2030 as the target date, other companies such as Ford, which is postponing this date in its home market, also set 2030 for the European market, which clearly demonstrates the suitability of this type of policy.

Nevertheless internal combustion vehicles will continue to travel on the roads or will be resold in developing countries. In addition to the price factor, which is even more accentuated when estimates are carried out in terms of total cost of ownership calculations due to the lower cost of electric recharging versus fuel and lower maintenance requirements, other factors such as the availability of fast charging networks must be taken into account.

While price parity is approaching, it is worth thinking about the factors that are causing car sales, which are still behind gasoline models in share, to suffer: the chip crisis, which is strongly affecting the automotive industry and will most likely extend until 2022, is creating production problems and the elimination of numerous advanced electronic options in many models, which reduces the incentive to purchase a vehicle at the present time. These types of reasons could lead some consumers to postpone purchasing a vehicle precisely when we may be talking about the final years for internal combustion technology, which would increase the likelihood that, later on and as the price gap closes, they would opt for an electric vehicle.

Finally, in the United States, the ambitious infrastructure plan put in place by the Biden administration also promises to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles by addressing key barriers to mainstream adoption such as charging access, which in turn is fueling the interest of automotive companies to have more electric vehicles in their range. In Europe, meanwhile, more Chinese brands offering electric vehicles are beginning to enter the most advanced markets, such as Norway and the Netherlands, with plans to expand to the rest of the continent with very competitive offers in terms of price.

One way or another, the future of the automotive industry is electric, and the transition will take place during the remainder of this decade. You might want to think about it if you are weighing whether it’s time to buy an electric car this year.

 

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