Low-emissions sources are set to cover almost all the growth in global electricity demand in the next three years


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IEA Electricity Market Outlook 2023-2025 projects faster demand growth as renewables and nuclear dominate supply, stabilizing power-sector carbon emissions, with Asia leading expansion despite energy crisis shocks and weather-driven volatility.

 

Key Points

IEA forecast for 2023-2025 electricity demand: renewables and nuclear meet growth as power-sector emissions hold steady.

✅ Asia drives >70% of demand growth

✅ Renewables and nuclear meet most new supply

✅ CO2 intensity declines; grid flexibility vital

 

The world’s electricity demand growth slowed only slightly in 2022, despite headwinds from the energy crisis, and is expected to accelerate in the years ahead

Renewables are set to dominate the growth of the world’s electricity supply over the next three years as, renewables eclipse coal in global generation, together with nuclear power they meet the vast majority of the increase in global demand through to 2025, making significant rises in the power sector’s carbon emissions unlikely, according to a new IEA report.

After slowing slightly last year to 2% amid the turmoil of the global energy crisis and exceptional weather conditions in some regions, the growth in world electricity demand is expected to accelerate to an average of 3% over the next three years, the IEA’s Electricity Market Report 2023 finds. Emerging and developing economies in Asia are the driving forces behind this faster pace, which is a step up from average growth of 2.4% during the years before the pandemic and above pre-pandemic levels globally.

More than 70% of the increase in global electricity demand over the next three years is expected to come from China, India and Southeast Asia, as Asia’s power use nears half of the world by mid-decade, although considerable uncertainties remain over trends in China as its economy emerges from strict Covid restrictions. China’s share of global electricity consumption is currently forecast to rise to a new record of one-third by 2025, up from one-quarter in 2015. At the same time, advanced economies are seeking to expand electricity use to displace fossil fuels in sectors such as transport, heating and industry.

“The world’s growing demand for electricity is set to accelerate, adding more than double Japan’s current electricity consumption over the next three years,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “The good news is that renewables and nuclear power are growing quickly enough to meet almost all this additional appetite, suggesting we are close to a tipping point for power sector emissions. Governments now need to enable low-emissions sources to grow even faster and drive down emissions so that the world can ensure secure electricity supplies while reaching climate goals.”

While natural gas-fired power generation in the European Union is forecast to fall in the coming years, as wind and solar outpaced gas in 2022, based on current trends, significant growth in the Middle East is set to partly offset this decrease. Sharp spikes in natural gas prices amid the energy crisis have in turn fuelled soaring electricity prices in some markets, particularly in Europe, prompting debate in policy circles over reforms to power market design.

Meanwhile, expected declines in coal-fired generation in Europe and the Americas are likely to be matched by a rise in the Asia-Pacific region, despite increases in nuclear power deployment and restarts of plants in some countries such as Japan. This means that after reaching an all-time high in 2022, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from global power generation are set to remain around the same level through 2025.

The strong growth of renewables means their share of the global power generation mix is forecast to rise from 29% in 2022 to 35% in 2025, with the shares of coal- and gas-fired generation falling. As a result, the CO2 intensity of global power generation will continue to decrease in the coming years. Europe bucked this global trend last year, however. The CO2 intensity of Europe’s power generation increased as a result of higher use of coal and gas amid steep drops in output from both hydropower, due to drought, and nuclear power, due to plant closures and maintenance. This setback will be temporary, though, as Europe’s power generation emissions are expected to decrease on average by about 10% a year through 2025.

Electricity demand trends varied widely by region in 2022. India’s electricity consumption rose strongly, while China’s growth was more subdued due to its zero-Covid policy weighing heavily on economic activity. The United States recorded a robust increase in demand, driven by economic activity and higher residential use amid hotter summer weather and a colder-than-normal winter, even as electricity sales projections continue to decline according to some outlooks.

Demand in the European Union contracted due to unusually mild winter weather and a decline in electricity consumption in the industrial sector, which significantly scaled back production because of high energy prices and supply disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The 3.5% decrease in EU demand was its second largest percentage decline since the global financial crisis in 2009, with the largest being the exceptional contraction due to the COVID-19 shock in 2020.

The new IEA report notes that electricity demand and supply worldwide are becoming increasingly weather dependent, with extreme conditions a recurring theme in 2022. In addition to the drought in Europe, there were heatwaves in India, resulting in the country’s highest ever peak in power demand. Similarly, central and eastern regions of China were hit by heatwaves and drought, which caused demand for air conditioning to surge amid reduced hydropower generation in Sichuan province. The United States also saw severe winter storms in December, triggering massive power outages.

These highlight the need for faster decarbonisation and accelerated deployment of clean energy technologies, the report says. At the same time, as the clean energy transition gathers pace, the impact of weather events on electricity demand will intensify due to the increased electrification of heating, while the share of weather-dependent renewables will continue to grow in the generation mix. In such a world, increasing the flexibility of power systems, which are under growing strain across grids and markets, while ensuring security of supply and resilience of networks will be crucial.

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Ontario to Reintroduce Renewable Energy Projects 5 Years After Cancellations

Ontario Renewable Energy Procurement 2024 will see the IESO secure wind, solar, and hydro power to meet rising electricity demand, support transit electrification, bolster grid reliability, and serve manufacturing growth across the province.

 

Key Points

A provincial IESO initiative to add 2,000 MW of clean power and plan 3,000 MW more to meet rising demand.

✅ IESO to procure 2,000 MW from wind, solar, hydro

✅ Exploring 3,000 MW via upgrades and expansions

✅ Demand growth ~2% yearly; electrification and industry

 

After the Ford government terminated renewable energy contracts five years ago, despite warnings about wind project cancellation costs that year, Ontario's electricity operator, the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), is now planning to once again incorporate wind and solar initiatives to address the province's increasing power demands.

The IESO, responsible for managing the provincial power supply, is set to secure 2,000 megawatts of electricity from clean sources, which include wind, solar, and hydro power, as wind power competitiveness increases across Canada. Additionally, the IESO is exploring the possibilities of reacquiring, upgrading, or expanding existing facilities to generate an additional 3,000 MW of electricity in the future.

These new power procurement efforts in Ontario aim to meet the rising energy demand driven by transit electrification and large-scale manufacturing projects, even as national renewable growth projections were scaled back after Ontario scrapped its clean energy program, which are expected to exert greater pressure on the provincial grid.

The IESO projects a consistent growth in demand of approximately two percent per year over the next two decades. This growth has prompted the Ford government, amid debate over Ontario's electricity future in the province, to take proactive measures to prevent potential blackouts or disruptions for both residential and commercial consumers.

This renewed commitment to renewable energy represents a significant policy shift for Premier Doug Ford, reflecting his new stance on wind power over time, who had previously voiced strong opposition to wind turbines and pledged to dismantle all windmills in the province. In 2018, shortly after taking office, the government terminated 750 renewable energy contracts that had been signed by the previous Liberal government, incurring fees of $230 million for taxpayers.

At the time, the government cited reasons such as surplus electricity supply and increased costs for ratepayers as grounds for contract cancellations. Premier Ford expressed pride in the decision, echoing a proud of cancelling contracts stance, claiming that it saved taxpayers $790 million and eliminated what he viewed as detrimental wind turbines that had negatively impacted the province's energy landscape for 15 years.

The Ontario government's new wind and solar energy procurement initiatives are scheduled to commence in 2024, following a court ruling on a Cornwall wind farm that spotlighted cancellation decisions.

 

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Solar Power Becomes EU’s Top Electricity Source

Solar has become the EU’s main source of electricity, marking a historic turning point in Europe’s energy mix as solar power surpasses nuclear and wind, accelerates renewable expansion, lowers carbon emissions, and strengthens the EU’s clean energy transition.

 

Why has Solar Become the EU’s Main Source of Electricity?

Solar has become the EU’s primary source of electricity due to rapid solar expansion, lower installation costs, and robust clean energy policies, which have boosted generation, reduced fossil fuel dependence, and accelerated Europe’s transition toward sustainability.

✅ Surging solar capacity and falling costs

✅ Policy support for renewable energy growth

✅ Reduced reliance on oil, gas, and coal

 

For the first time in history, solar energy became the leading source of electricity generation in the European Union in June 2025, marking a major milestone in the continent’s transition toward renewable energy, as renewables surpassed fossil fuels across the bloc this year. According to new data from Eurostat, more than half of the EU's net electricity production in the second quarter of the year came from renewable sources, with solar power leading the way.

Between April and June 2025, renewables accounted for 54 percent of the EU’s electricity generation, a 1.3 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024. The rise was driven primarily by solar energy, with countries like Germany seeing a solar boost amid the energy crisis, which generated 122,317 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in the second quarter—enough, in theory, to power around three million homes.

Rob Stait, a spokesperson for Alight, one of Europe’s leading solar developers, described the achievement as “heartening.” He said, “Solar’s boom is because it can generate huge energy cost savings, and it's easy and quick to install and scale. A solar farm can be developed in a year, compared to at least five years for wind and at least ten for nuclear. But most importantly, it provides clean, renewable power, and its increased adoption drastically reduces the reliance of Europe on Russian oil and gas supplies.”

Eurostat’s data shows that June 2025 was the first month ever when solar overtook all other energy sources, accounting for 22 percent of the EU’s energy mix, reflecting a broader renewables surge across the region. Nuclear power followed closely at 21.6 percent, wind at 15.8 percent, hydro at 14.1 percent, and natural gas at 13.8 percent.

The shift comes at a critical time as Europe continues to navigate the economic and energy challenges brought on by Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. With fossil fuel markets remaining volatile, countries have increasingly viewed investment in renewables as both an environmental and strategic imperative. As Stait noted, energy resilience and renewable infrastructure have now become a “strategic necessity.”

Denmark led the EU in renewable energy generation during the second quarter, producing 94.7% of its electricity from renewable sources. It was followed by Latvia (93.4%), Austria (91.8%), Croatia (89.5%), and Portugal (85.6%). Luxembourg recorded the largest year-on-year increase, up 13.5 percent, largely due to a surge in solar production. Belgium also saw strong growth, with a 9.1 percent rise in renewable generation compared to 2024, while Ireland targets over one-third green electricity within four years.

At the other end of the spectrum, Slovakia, Malta, and the Czech Republic lagged behind, producing just 19.9%, 21.2%, and 22.1% of their electricity from renewable sources, respectively.

Stait believes the continued expansion of renewables will help stabilize and eventually lower electricity prices across Europe. “The accelerated buildout of renewables will ultimately lower bills for both businesses and other users—but slower buildouts mean sky-high prices may linger,” he said.

He added a call for decisive action: “My advice to European nations would be to keep going further and faster. There needs to be political action to solve grid congestion, and to create opportunities for innovation and manufacturing in Europe will be critical to keep momentum.”

With solar energy now taking the lead for the first time, Europe’s clean energy transformation appears to be entering a new phase, as global renewables set new records and momentum builds—one that combines environmental sustainability with energy security and economic opportunity.

 

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YVR welcomes government funding for new Electric Vehicle Chargers

YVR EV Charging Infrastructure Funding backs new charging stations at Vancouver International Airport via ZEVIP and CleanBC Go Electric, supporting Net Zero 2030 with Level 2 and DC fast charging across Sea Island.

 

Key Points

A federal and provincial effort to expand EV charging at YVR, accelerating airport electrification toward Net Zero 2030.

✅ Up to 74 new EV charging outlets across Sea Island by 2025

✅ Funded through ZEVIP and CleanBC Go Electric programs

✅ Supports passengers, partners, and YVR fleet electrification

 

Vancouver International Airport (YVR) welcomes today’s announcement from the Government of Canada, which confirms new federal funding under Natural Resource Canada’s Zero Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Program (ZEVIP) and broader zero-emission vehicle incentives for essential infrastructure at the airport that will further enable YVR to achieve its climate targets.

This federal funding, combined with funding through the Government of British Columbia’s CleanBC Go Electric program, which includes EV charger rebates, will support the installation of up to 74 additional Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging outlets across Sea Island over the next three years. EV charging infrastructure is identified as a key priority in the airport’s Roadmap to Net Zero 2030. It is also an important part of its purpose in being a Gateway to the New Economy.

“We know that our passengers’ needs and expectations are changing as EV adaptation increases across our region and policies like the City’s EV-ready requirements take hold, we are always working hard to anticipate and exceed these expectations and provide world-class amenities at our airport,” said Tamara Vrooman, President & CEO, Vancouver Airport Authority.

This airport initiative is among 26 projects receiving $19 million under ZEVIP, which assists organizations as they adapt to the Government of Canada’s mandatory target for all new light-duty cars and passenger trucks to be zero-emission by 2035, and to provincial momentum such as B.C.'s EV charging expansion across the network.

“We are grateful to have found partners at all levels of government as we take bold action to become the world’s greenest airport. Not only will this critical funding support us as we work to the complete electrification of our airport operations, and as regional innovations like Harbour Air’s electric aircraft demonstrate what’s possible, but it will help us in our role supporting the mutual needs of our business partners related to climate action,” Vrooman continued.

These new EV Charging stations are planned to be installed by 2025, and will provide electricity to the YVR fleet, commercial and business partners’ vehicles, as well as passengers and the public, complementing BC Hydro’s expanding charging network in southern B.C. Currently, YVR provides 12 free electric vehicle charging stalls (Level Two) at its parking facilities, as well as one DC fast-charging stall.

This exciting announcement comes on the heels of the Province of BC’s Integrated Marketplace Initiative (IMI) pilot program in November 2022, a partnership between YVR and the Province of British Columbia to invest up to 11.5 million to develop made-in-BC clean-tech solutions for use at the airport, and related programs offering home and workplace charging rebates are accelerating adoption.

 

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Record numbers of solar panels were shipped in the United States during 2021

U.S. Solar Panel Shipments 2021 surged to 28.8 million kW of PV modules, tracking utility-scale and small-scale capacity additions, driven by imports from Asia, resilient demand, supply chain constraints, and declining prices.

 

Key Points

Record 28.8M kW PV modules shipped in 2021; 80% imports; growth in utility- and small-scale capacity with lower prices.

✅ 28.8M kW shipped, up from 21.8M kW in 2020 (record capacity)

✅ 80% of PV module shipments were imports, mainly from Asia

✅ Utility-scale +13.2 GW; small-scale +5.4 GW; residential led

 

U.S. shipments of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules (solar panels) rose to a record electricity-generating capacity of 28.8 million peak kilowatts (kW) in 2021, from 21.8 million peak kW in 2020, based on data from our Annual Photovoltaic Module Shipments Report. Continued demand for U.S. solar capacity drove this increase in solar panel shipments in 2021, as solar's share of U.S. electricity continued to rise.

U.S. solar panel shipments include imports, exports, and domestically produced and shipped panels. In 2021, about 80% of U.S. solar panel module shipments were imports, primarily from Asia, even as a proposed tenfold increase in solar aims to reshape the U.S. electricity system.

U.S. solar panel shipments closely track domestic solar capacity additions; differences between the two usually result from the lag time between shipment and installation, and long-term projections for solar's generation share provide additional context. We categorize solar capacity additions as either utility-scale (facilities with one megawatt of capacity or more) or small-scale (largely residential solar installations).

The United States added 13.2 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale solar capacity in 2021, an annual record and 25% more than the 10.6 GW added in 2020, according to our Annual Electric Generator Report. Additions of utility-scale solar capacity reached a record high, reflecting strong growth in solar and storage despite project delays, supply chain constraints, and volatile pricing.

Small-scale solar capacity installations in the United States increased by 5.4 GW in 2021, up 23% from 2020 (4.4 GW), as solar PV and wind power continued to grow amid favorable government plans. Most of the small-scale solar capacity added in 2021 was installed on homes. Residential installations totaled more than 3.9 GW in 2021, compared with 2.9 GW in 2020.

The cost of solar panels has declined significantly since 2010. The average value (a proxy for price) of panel shipments has decreased from $1.96 per peak kW in 2010 to $0.34 per peak kW in 2021, as solar became the third-largest renewable source and markets scaled. Despite supply chain constraints and higher material costs in 2021, the average value of solar panels decreased 11% from 2020.

In 2021, the top five destination states for U.S. solar panel shipments were:

California (5.09 million peak kW)
Texas (4.31 million peak kW)
Florida (1.80 million peak kW)
Georgia (1.15 million peak kW)
Illinois (1.12 million peak kW)
These five states accounted for 46% of all U.S. shipments, and 2023 utility-scale project pipelines point to continued growth.

 

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Nevada to Power Clean Vehicles with Clean Electricity

Nevada EV Charging Plan will invest $100 million in highway, urban, and public charging, bus depots, and Lake Tahoe sites, advancing NV Energy's SB 448 goals for clean energy, air quality, equity, and tourism recovery.

 

Key Points

Program invests $100M in EV infrastructure under SB 448, led by NV Energy, expanding clean charging across Nevada.

✅ $100M for statewide charging over 3 years

✅ 50% invested in overburdened communities

✅ Supports SB 448, climate and air quality goals

 

The Public Utilities Commission of Nevada approved a $100 million program that will deploy charging stations for electric vehicles (EVs) along highways, in urban areas, at public buildings, in school and transit bus depots, and at Red Rocks and Lake Tahoe, as charging networks compete to expand access. Combined with the state's clean vehicle standards and its aggressive renewable energy requirements, this means cars, trucks, buses, and boats in Nevada will be powered by increasingly clean electricity, reflecting how electricity is changing across the country.

The “Economic Recovery Transportation Electrification Plan” proposed by NV Energy, aligning with utilities' bullish plans for EV charging, was required by Senate Bill (SB) 448 (Brooks). Nevada’s tourism-centric economy was hit hard by the pandemic, and, as an American EV boom accelerates nationwide, the $100 million investment in charging infrastructure for light, medium, and heavy-duty EVs over the next three years was designed to provide much needed economic stimulus without straining the state’s budget.

Half of those investments will be made in communities that have borne a disproportionate share of transportation pollution and have suffered most from COVID-19—a disease that is made more deadly by exposure to local air pollution—and, amid evolving state grid challenges that planners are addressing, ensuring equitable deployment will help protect reliability and health.

SB 448 also requires NV Energy to propose subsequent “Transportation Electrification Plans” to keep the state on track to meet its climate, air quality, and equity goals, recognizing that a much bigger grid may be needed as adoption grows. A  report from MJ Bradley & Associates commissioned by NRDC, Southwest Energy Efficiency Project, and Western Resource Advocates demonstrates Nevada could realize $21 billion in avoided expenditures on gasoline and maintenance, reduced utility bills, and environmental benefits, with parallels to New Mexico's projected benefits highlighted in recent analyses, by 2050 if more drivers make the switch to EVs.

 

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What the U.S. can learn from the U.K. about wind power

U.S. Offshore Wind Power Strategy leverages UK offshore wind lessons, contract auctions, and supply chains to scale renewable energy, build wind farms, cut emissions, create jobs, and modernize the grid to meet 2030 climate goals.

 

Key Points

U.S. plan to scale offshore wind via UK-style contracts, turbines, and supply chains to meet 2030 clean energy goals

✅ Contract-for-difference price guarantees de-risk projects

✅ Scale turbines and ports to cut LCOE and boost capacity

✅ Build coastal grids, transmission, and workforce by 2030

 

As President Joe Biden’s administration puts its muscle behind wind power with plans to develop large-scale wind farms along the entire United States coastline, the administration can look at how the windiest nation in Europe is transforming its energy grid for an example of how to proceed.

In the search for renewable sources of energy, the United Kingdom has embraced wind power. In 2020, the country generated as much as 24 percent of its electricity from wind power across the grid — enough to supply 18.5 million homes, according to government statistics. 

With usually reliable winds, the U.K. currently has the highest number of offshore turbines installed in the world, with China at a close second.

Experts and industry leaders say it offers valuable lessons on creating a viable market for wind power at the ambitious scale the Biden administration hopes to meet in order to confront climate change and help transition the U.S. economy to renewable energy.

“The U.S. is going to benefit hugely from the early investment that European governments have put into offshore wind,” said Oliver Metcalfe, a wind power analyst at BloombergNEF in London, an independent research group.

Big American plans
On Oct. 13, the White House announced ambitious offshore wind plans to lease federal waters off of the East and West Coasts and Gulf of Mexico to develop commercial wind farms.

The move is part of Biden’s goal to have 30,000 megawatts of offshore wind power produced in the United States by 2030, with projects such as New York's record-setting approval highlighting the momentum. The White House says that would generate enough electricity to power more than 10 million homes and in the process create 77,000 jobs. 

But there is a chasm between where the U.S. is now and where it wants to be within the next decade when it comes to offshore wind power.

“We’re the first generation to understand the science and implications of climate change and we’re the last generation to be able to do something about it.”

The U.S. is not new to wind power; onshore wind in states such as Texas, Oklahoma and Iowa supplied 8.2 percent of the country’s total electricity generation in 2020, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. 

But despite its long coastlines, offshore wind has been a largely untapped resource in the U.S. With a population of about 332 million people, the U.S. currently has just two operational offshore wind farms — off Rhode Island and Virginia — with the capacity to produce 42 megawatts of electricity between them, far from the 1 gigawatt on-grid milestone many are watching. 

In contrast, the U.K., with a population of 67 million people, has 2,297 offshore wind turbines with the capacity to produce 10,415 megawatts of electricity.

Power station or a park?
Just outside of central Glasgow, the host city for the U.N. climate change conference known as COP26, the fruits of years of effort to move away from fossil fuels can be seen and heard

International financiers, including the World Bank are helping developing countries scale wind projects to meet climate goals.

Whitelee Windfarm, the U.K.’s largest onshore wind farm, spreads across 30 square miles on the Eaglesham Moor and includes more than 80 miles of trails for walking, cycling and horseback riding.

With its 539 megawatt capacity, it generates enough electricity for 350,000 homes — more than half the population of Glasgow. 

On a recent gusty fall day, Ian and Fiona Gardner, both 71, were walking their dogs among the wind farm’s 360-foot-tall turbines  

“This is a major contribution to Scotland, to become independent from oil by 2035,” Ian Gardner, an accountant, said. 

Thanks to the rapid technological advances in turbine technology, this wind farm that was completed in 2009, is now practically old school. The latest crop of onshore turbines typically generate double the current capacity of Whitelee’s turbines.

“It took us 20 years to build 2 gigawatts of power. And we’re going to double that in five  years,” said McQuade, an economist. “We can do that because machines are big, efficient, cheap and the supply chain is there.” 

The biggest operational offshore wind farm in the world right now, Hornsea Project One, is about 75 miles off England’s Yorkshire coast in the North Sea.

Owned and operated by Orsted, a former Danish oil and gas giant, in partnership with Global Infrastructure Partners, its 174 turbines have the capacity to generate 1.2 gigawatts — enough to power over 1 million homes and roughly equivalent to a nuclear power plant. 

Benj Sykes, Vice President of U.K. Offshore Wind at Orsted, called Hornsea One a “game changer” in a recent phone interview, citing it as an example of how the industry has scaled up its output to compete with traditional power plants.

But massive projects like Hornsea One took decades to get up and running, as well as government help. According to Malte Jansen, a research associate at the Centre of Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, the British government helped facilitate a “paradigm shift” in renewable energy in 2013.

The electricity market reform policy set up a framework to incentivize investment in offshore wind farms by creating an auction system that guarantees electricity prices to developers in 15-year contracts, alongside new contract awards that add 10 GW to the U.K. grid. 

This means there is no upside in terms of market price fluctuation, but there is no downside either. The policy essentially “de-risked the investment,” Jansen said.

The state contracts allowed the industry to innovate and learn how to develop even larger and more efficient turbines with blades that stretch as long as 267 feet, about three-quarters the size of a U.S. football field. 

While this approach helped companies and investors, it will also have an unintended beneficiary — the U.S., Metcalfe from BloombergNEF said. 

Developers are “taking the lessons they’ve learned building projects in Europe, the cost reductions that they’ve achieved building projects in Europe and are now bringing those to the U.S. market,” he said.

 

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