Higher price of electric cars a concern for more than half of UK consumers

Electric Fleet Grid Planning aligns utilities, charging infrastructure, distribution upgrades, and substation capacity to meet megawatt loads from medium- and heavy-duty EV trucks and buses, enabling managed charging, storage, and corridor fast charging.

Key Points

A utility plan to upgrade feeders and substations for EV fleets, coordinating charging, storage, and load management.

✅ Plans distribution, substation, and transformer upgrades

✅ Supports managed charging and on-site storage

✅ Aligns utility investment with fleet adoption timelines

As more electric buses and trucks enter the market, future fleets will require a lot of electricity for charging and will challenge state power grids over time. While some utilities in California and elsewhere are planning for an increase in power demand, many have yet to do so and need to get started.

This issue is critical, because freight trucks emit more than one-quarter of all vehicle emissions. Recent product developments offer growing opportunities to electrify trucks and buses and slash their emissions (see our recent white paper). And just last week, a group of 15 states plus D.C. announced plans to fully electrify truck sales by 2050. Utilities will need to be ready to power electric fleets.

Electric truck fleets need substantial power
Power for trucks and buses is generally more of an issue than for cars because trucks typically have larger batteries and because trucks and buses are often parts of fleets with many vehicles that charge at the same location. For example, a Tesla Model 3 battery stores 54-75 kWh; a Proterra transit bus battery stores 220-660 kWh. In Amsterdam, a 100-bus transit fleet is powered by a set of slow and fast chargers that together have a peak load of 13 MW (megawatts). This is equivalent to the power used by a typical large factory. And they are thinking of expanding the fleet to 250 buses.

California utilities are finding that grid capacity is often adequate in the short term, but that upgrade needs likely will grow in the medium term.
Many other fleets also will need a lot of "juice." For example, a rough estimate of the power needed to serve a fleet of 200 delivery vans at an Amazon fulfillment center is about 4 MW. And for electric 18-wheelers, chargers may need up to 2 MW of power each; a recent proposal calls for charging stations every 100 miles along the U.S. West Coast’s I-5 corridor, highlighting concerns about EVs and the grid as each site targets a peak load of 23.5 MW.

Utilities need distribution planning
These examples show the need for more power at a given site than most utilities can provide without planning and investment. Meeting these needs often will require changes to primary and secondary power distribution systems (feeders that deliver power to distribution transformers and to end customers) and substation upgrades. For large loads, a new substation may be needed. A paper recently released by the California Electric Transportation Coalition estimates that for loads over 5 MW, distribution system and substation upgrades will be needed most of the time. According to the paper, typical utility costs are $1 million to $9 million for substation upgrades, $150,000 to $6 million for primary distribution upgrades, and $5,000 to $100,000 for secondary distribution upgrades. Similarly, Black and Veatch, in a paper on Electric Fleets, also provides some general guidance, shown in the table below, while recognizing that each site is unique.

California policy pushes utilities toward planning
In California, state agencies and a statewide effort called CALSTART have been funding demonstration projects and vehicle and charger purchases for several years to support grid stability as electrification ramps up. The California Air Resources Board voted in June to phase in zero-emission requirements for truck sales, mandating that, beginning in 2024, manufacturers must increase their zero-emission truck sales to 30-50 percent by 2030 and 40-75 percent by 2035. By 2035, more than 300,000 trucks will be zero-emission vehicles.

California utilities operate programs that work with fleet owners to install the necessary infrastructure for electric vehicle fleets. For example, Southern California Edison operates the Charge Ready Transport program for medium- and heavy-duty fleets. Normally, when customers request new or upgraded service from the utility, there are fees associated with the new upgrade. With Charge Ready, the utility generally pays these costs, and it will sometimes pay half the cost of chargers; the customer is responsible for the other half and for charger installation costs. Sites with at least two electric vehicles are eligible, but program managers report that at least five vehicles are often needed for the economics to make sense for the utility.

One way to do this is to develop and implement a phased plan, with some components sized for future planned growth and other components added as needed. Southern California Edison, for example, has 24 commitments so far, and has a five-year goal of 870 sites, with an average of 10 chargers per site. The utility notes that one charger usually can serve several vehicles and that cycling of charging, some storage, and other load management techniques through better grid coordination can reduce capacity needs (a nominal 10 MW load often can be reduced below 5 MW).

Through this program, utility representatives are regularly talking with fleet operators, and they can use these discussions to help identify needed upgrades to the utility grid. For example, California transit agencies are doing the planning to meet a California Air Resources Board mandate for 100 percent electric or fuel cell buses by 2040; utilities are talking with the agencies and their consultants as part of this process. California utilities are finding that grid capacity is often adequate in the short term, but that upgrade needs likely will grow in the medium term (seven to 10 years out). They can manage grid needs with good planning (school buses generally can be charged overnight and don’t need fast chargers), load management techniques and some energy storage to address peak needs.

Customer conversations drive planning elsewhere
We also spoke with a northeastern utility (wishing to be unnamed) that has been talking with customers about many issues, including fleets. It has used these discussions to identify a few areas where grid upgrades might be needed if fleets electrify. It is factoring these findings into a broader grid-planning effort underway that is driven by multiple needs, including fleets. Even within an integrated planning effort, this utility is struggling with the question of when to take action to prepare the electric system for fleet electrification: Should it act on state or federal policy? Should it act when the specific customer request is submitted, or is there something in between? Recognizing that any option has scheduling and cost allocation implications, it notes that there are no easy answers.

Many utilities need to start paying attention
As part of our research, we also talked with several other utilities and found that they have not yet looked at how fleets might relate to grid planning. However, several of these companies are developing plans to look into these issues in the next year. We also talked with a major truck manufacturer, also wishing to remain unnamed, that views grid limitations as a key obstacle to truck electrification. 

Based on these cases, it appears that fleet electrification can have a substantial impact on electric grids and that, while these impacts are small at present, they likely will grow over time. Fleet owners, electric utilities, and utility regulators need to start planning for these impacts now, so that grid improvements can be made steadily as electric fleets grow. Fleet and grid planning should happen in parallel, so that grid upgrades do not happen sooner or later than needed but are in place when needed, including the move toward a much bigger grid as EV adoption accelerates. These grid impacts can be managed and planned for, but the time to begin this planning is now.

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France EV Incentive Rules prioritize EU-made electric vehicles, tying subsidies to manufacturing emissions and carbon footprint, making Stellantis, Renault, and Tesla Model Y eligible while excluding many China-built models under a new eligibility list.

Key Points

Links EV subsidies to manufacturing emissions, favoring EU-made models and restricting many China-built cars.

✅ Subsidies tied to lifecycle manufacturing emissions.

✅ EU production favored; many China-built EVs excluded.

✅ Eligible: Stellantis, Renault, Tesla Model Y; not Model 3.

France's revamped new EV rules on consumer cash incentives for electric car purchases favour vehicles made in France and Europe over models manufactured in China, a government list of eligible car types published recently has showed.

Some 65% of electric cars sold in France will be eligible for the scheme, which from Friday will include new criteria covering the amount of carbon emitted in the manufacturing of an electric vehicle (EV).

The list of eligible models includes 24 produced by Franco-Italian group Stellantis (STLAM.MI) and five by French carmaker Renault (RENA.PA). Elon Musk's Tesla (TSLA.O) Model Y will be eligible but not its Model 3.

Electric vehicle brand MG Motors, owned by China's SAIC, said it expects the new rules to weigh on the French EV market, despite the global surge in EV sales seen in recent years.

"There are cars that will entirely lose their competitiveness", an MG spokesperson told Reuters, adding that the brand had decided not to apply for the bonus scheme for its MG4 model because it was "designed to exclude us".

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire hailed what he called the new rules' incentive for automakers to reduce their carbon footprint.

"We will no longer be subsidising car production that emits too much CO2," he said in a statement.

President Emmanuel Macron's government has wanted to make French and European-made EVs more affordable for domestic consumers relative to cheaper vehicles produced in China, amid a record EV market share in the country.

The average retail price of an EV in Europe, even as the EU EV share grew during lockdown months, was more than 65,000 euros ($71,000) in the first half of 2023, compared with just over 31,000 euros in China, according to research by Jato Dynamics.

The French government already offered buyers a cash incentive of between 5,000 and 7,000 euros to get more electric cars on the road, at a total cost of 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) per year.

However, in the absence of cheap European-made EVs, a third of all incentives are going to consumers buying EVs made in China, French finance ministry officials say. The trend has helped spur a surge in imports and a growing competitive gap with domestic producers.

China's auto industry relies heavily on coal-generated electricity, meaning many Chinese-made EVs will henceforth not qualify.

The Ademe agency overseeing the process studied the eligibility of almost 500 EV models and their variants to include in the scheme.

Dacia, the low-cost Renault brand, saw its Spring model imported from China excluded from the list.

Tesla's Model 3 is made in China. The Model Y, which is larger and more expensive, is made mainly in Berlin and was the top selling EV in France over the first 11 months of the year, amid forecasts that EVs could dominate within a decade in many markets.

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France Plug-In Electric Car Sales September 2023 show rapid EV adoption: 45,872 plug-ins, 30% market share, BEV 19.6%, PHEV 10.2%, with Tesla Model Y leading registrations amid sustained year-over-year growth.

Key Points

France registered 45,872 plug-ins in September 2023, a 30% share, with BEVs at 19.6% and PHEVs at 10.2%.

✅ Tesla Model Y led BEVs with 5,035 registrations in September

✅ YTD plug-in share 25%; BEV 15.9%, PHEV 9.1% across passenger cars

✅ Total market up 9% YoY to 153,916; plug-ins up 35% YoY

New passenger car registrations in France increased in September by nine percent year-over-year to 153,916, mirroring global EV market growth trends, taking the year-to-date total to 1,286,247 (up 16 percent year-over-year).

The market has been expanding every month this year (recovering slightly from the 2020-2022 collapse and the period when EU EV share grew during lockdowns across the bloc) and also is becoming more and more electrifying thanks to increasing plug-in electric car sales.

According to L’Avere-France, last month 45,872 new passenger plug-in electric cars were registered in France (35 percent more than a year ago), which represented almost 30 percent of the market, aligning with the view that the age of electric cars is arriving ahead of schedule. That's a new record share for rechargeable cars and a noticeable jump compared to just over 24 percent a year ago.

What's even more impressive is that passenger all-electric car registrations increased to over 30,000 (up 34 percent year-over-year), taking a record share of 19.6 percent of the market. That's basically one in five new cars sold, and in the U.S., plug-ins logged 19 billion electric miles in 2021 as a benchmark.

Plug-in hybrids are also growing (up 35% year-over-year), and with 15,699 units sold, accounted for 10.2 percent of the market (a near record value).

Plug-in car sales in France – September 2023

So far this year, more than 341,000 new plug-in electric vehicles have been registered in France, including over 321,000 passenger plug-in cars (25 percent of the market), while in the U.S., EV sales are soaring into 2024 as well.

Plug-in car registrations year-to-date (YOY change):

• Passenger BEVs: 204,616 (up 45%) and 15.9% market share
• Passenger PHEVs: 116,446 (up 31%) and 9.1% market share
• Total passenger plug-ins: 321,062 (up 40%) and 25% market share
• Light commercial BEVs: 20,292 (up 111%)
• Light commercial PHEVs: 281 (down 38%)
• Total plug-ins: 341,635 (up 43%)

For reference, in 2022, more than 346,000 new plug-in electric vehicles were registered in France (including almost 330,000 passenger cars, which was 21.5 percent of the market).

We can already tell that the year 2023 will be very positive for electrification in France, with a potential to reach 450,000 units or so, though new EV incentive rules could reshape the competitive landscape.

Models
In terms of individual models, the Tesla Model Y again was the most registered BEV with 5,035 new registrations in September. This spectacular result enabled the Model Y to become the fifth best-selling model in the country last month (Tesla, as a brand, was seventh).

The other best-selling models are usually small city cars - Peugeot e-208 (3,924), Dacia Spring (2,514), Fiat 500 electric (2,296), and MG4 (1,945), amid measures discouraging Chinese EVs in France. Meanwhile, the best-selling electric Renault - the Megane-e - was outside the top five BEVs, which reveals to us how much has changed since the Renault Zoe times.

After the first nine months of the year, the top three BEVs are the Tesla Model Y (27,458), Dacia Spring (21,103), and Peugeot e-208 (19,074), slightly ahead of the Fiat 500 electric (17,441).

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UK Transport Policy Overhaul signals bans on petrol and diesel cars, rail franchising reform, 15-minute cities, and active travel, tackling congestion, emissions, microplastics, urban sprawl, and public health with systemic, multimodal planning.

Key Points

A shift toward EVs, rail reform, and 15-minute cities to reduce emissions, congestion, and health risks.

✅ Phase-out of petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

✅ National rail franchising replaced with integrated operations

✅ Urban design: 15-minute cities, cycling, and active travel

Could it be true? That this government will bring all sales of petrol and diesel cars to an end by 2030, even as a 2035 EV mandate in Canada is derided by critics? That it will cancel all rail franchises and replace them with a system that might actually work? Could the UK, for the first time since the internal combustion engine was invented, really be contemplating a rational transport policy? Hold your horses.

Before deconstructing it, let’s mark this moment. Both announcements might be a decade or two overdue, but we should bank them as they’re essential steps towards a habitable nation.

We don’t yet know exactly what they mean, as the government has delayed its full transport announcement until later this autumn. But so far, nothing that surrounds these positive proposals makes any sense, and the so-called EV revolution often proves illusory in practice.

If the government has a vision for transport, it appears to be plug and play. We’ll keep our existing transport system, but change the kinds of vehicles and train companies that use it. But when you have a system in which structural failure is embedded, nothing short of structural change will significantly improve it.

A switch to electric cars will reduce pollution, though the benefits depend on the power mix; in Canada, Canada’s grid was 18% fossil-fuelled in 2019, for example. It won’t eliminate it, as a high proportion of the microscopic particles thrown into the air by cars, which are highly damaging to our health, arise from tyres grating on the surface of the road. Tyre wear is also by far the biggest source of microplastics pouring into our rivers and the sea. And when tyres, regardless of the engine that moves them, come to the end of their lives, we still have no means of properly recycling them.

Cars are an environmental hazard long before they leave the showroom. One estimate suggests that the carbon emissions produced in building each one equate to driving it for 150,000km. The rise in electric vehicle sales has created a rush for minerals such as lithium and copper, with devastating impacts on beautiful places. If the aim is greatly to reduce the number of vehicles on the road, and replace those that remain with battery-operated models, alongside EV battery recycling efforts, then they will be part of the solution. But if, as a forecast by the National Grid proposes, the current fleet is replaced by 35m electric cars, a University of Toronto study warns they are not a silver bullet, and we’ll simply create another environmental disaster.

Switching power sources does nothing to address the vast amount of space the car demands, which could otherwise be used for greens, parks, playgrounds and homes. It doesn’t stop cars from carving up community and turning streets into thoroughfares and outdoor life into a mortal hazard. Electric vehicles don’t solve congestion, or the extreme lack of physical activity that contributes to our poor health.

So far, the government seems to have no interest in systemic change. It still plans to spend £27bn on building even more roads, presumably to accommodate all those new electric cars. An analysis by Transport for Quality of Life suggests that this road-building will cancel out 80% of the carbon savings from a switch to electric over the next 12 years. But everywhere, even in the government’s feted garden villages and garden towns, new developments are being built around the car.

Rail policy is just as irrational, even though lessons from large electric bus fleets offer cleaner mass transit options. The construction of HS2, now projected to cost £106bn, has accelerated in the past few months, destroying precious wild places along the way, though its weak business case has almost certainly been destroyed by coronavirus.

If one thing changes permanently as a result of the pandemic, it is likely to be travel. Many people will never return to the office. The great potential of remote technologies, so long untapped, is at last being realised. Having experienced quieter cities with cleaner air, few people wish to return to the filthy past.

Like several of the world’s major cities, our capital is being remodelled in response, though why electric buses haven’t taken over remains a live question. The London mayor – recognising that, while fewer passengers can use public transport, a switch to cars would cause gridlock and lethal pollution – has set aside road space for cycling and walking. Greater Manchester hopes to build 1,800 miles of protected pedestrian and bicycle routes.

Cycling to work is described by some doctors as “the miracle pill”, massively reducing the chances of early death: if you want to save the NHS, get on your bike. But support from central government is weak and contradictory, and involves a fraction of the money it is spending on new roads. The major impediment to a cycling revolution is the danger of being hit by a car.

Even a switch to bicycles (including electric bikes and scooters) is only part of the answer. Fundamentally, this is not a vehicle problem but an urban design problem. Or rather, it is an urban design problem created by our favoured vehicle. Cars have made everything bigger and further away. Paris, under its mayor Anne Hidalgo, is seeking to reverse this trend, by creating a “15-minute city”, in which districts that have been treated by transport planners as mere portals to somewhere else become self-sufficient communities – each with their own shops, parks, schools and workplaces, within a 15-minute walk of everyone’s home.

This, I believe, is the radical shift that all towns and cities need. It would transform our sense of belonging, our community life, our health and our prospects of local employment, while greatly reducing pollution, noise and danger. Transport has always been about much more than transport. The way we travel helps to determine the way we live. And at the moment, locked in our metal boxes, we do not live well.

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UK-EU EV Tariffs 2024 threaten a 10% levy under Brexit rules of origin, raising electric vehicle prices, straining battery supply chains, and risking a price war for manufacturers, consumers, and climate targets across automotive market.

Key Points

Tariffs from Brexit rules of origin imposing 10% duties on EVs, raising UK prices amid battery and supply chain gaps.

✅ 10% tariffs if rules of origin thresholds are unmet

✅ Price hikes on UK EVs, led by Tesla Model Y

✅ Battery supply gaps strain UK and EU manufacturers

Electric cars will cost British motorists an extra £6,000 if Rishi Sunak fails to strike a post-Brexit deal with the EU on tariffs, industry bosses have told The Independent.

UK manufacturers warned of a “devastating price war” on consumers, echoing UK concern over higher EV prices across the market – threatening both the electric vehicle (EV) market and the UK’s climate change commitments – if tariffs are enforced in January 2024.

In the latest major Brexit row, the Sunak government is pushing the European Commission to agree to delay the costly new rules, even as the UK readies for rising EV adoption across the economy, set to come in at the start of next year as part of Boris Johnson’s Brexit trade deal.

But Brussels has shown no sign it is willing to budge – even as Washington has announced a 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs this year – leaving business leaders in despair about the impact of 10 per cent tariffs on exports on Britain’s car industry.

The tariffs would increase the price of a new Tesla Model Y – the UK’s most popular electric vehicle – by £6,000 or more, according to a new report by the Independent Commission on UK-EU Relations.

“For the sake of our economy and our planet, the government has a responsibility to get round the table with the EU, fix this and fix the raft of other issues with the Brexit deal,” said commission director Mike Buckley.

The new rules of origin agreed in the Brexit trade and cooperation agreement (TCA) require 45 per cent of an electric car’s value, as the age of electric cars accelerates, to originate in the UK or EU to qualify for trade without tariffs.

The British auto industry has warned the 2024 rules pose an “existential threat” to sales because of the lack of domestic batteries to meet the rules, even as EV adoption within the decade is widely expected to surge – pleading for a delay until 2027.

The VDA – the lobby group for Germany’s car industry – has also called for an “urgent” move to delay, warning that the rules create a “significant competitive disadvantage” for European carmarkers in relation to China, where tariffs on Chinese EVs are reshaping global trade, and other Asian competitors.

The new report by the Independent Commission on UK-EU Relations – backed by the manufacturers’ body Make UK and the British Chamber of Commerce – warns that the January tariffs will immediately push up costs and hit electric vehicle sales, despite UK EV inquiries surging during the fuel supply crisis in recent years.

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Canada 2023 Clean Energy Outlook highlights decarbonization, renewables, a net-zero grid by 2035, hydrogen, energy storage, EV mandates, carbon pricing, and critical minerals, aligning with IRA incentives and provincial policies to accelerate the transition.

Key Points

A concise overview of Canada's 2023 path to net-zero: renewables, clean grids, storage, EVs, and hydrogen.

✅ Net-zero electricity regulations target 2035

✅ Alberta leads PPAs and renewables via deregulated markets

✅ Tax credits boost storage, hydrogen, EVs, and critical minerals

The year 2022 may go down as the most successful one yet for climate action. It was marked by monumental shifts in energy policy from governments, two COP meetings and heightened awareness of the private sector's duty to act.

In the U.S., the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was the largest federal legislation to tackle climate change, injecting $369 billion of tax credits and incentives for clean energy, Biden's EV agenda and carbon capture, energy storage, energy efficiency and research.

The European Union accelerated its green policies to transition away from fossil fuels and overhauled its carbon market. China and India made strides on clean energy and strengthened climate policies. The International Energy Agency made its largest revision yet as renewables continued to proliferate.

The U.S. ratified the Kigali Amendment, one of the strongest global climate policies to date.

Canada was no different. The 2022 Fall Economic Statement was announced to respond to the IRA, offering an investment tax credit for renewables, clean technology and green hydrogen alongside the Canada Growth Fund. The federal government also proposed a 2035 deadline for clean electrical grids and a federal zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) sales mandate for light-duty vehicles.

With the momentum set, more action is promised in 2023: Canadian governments are expected to unveil firmer details for the decarbonization of electricity grids to meet 2035 deadlines; Alberta is poised to be an unlikely leader in clean energy.

Greater attention will be put on energy storage and critical minerals. Even an expected economic downturn is unlikely to stop the ball that is rolling.

Shane Doig, the head of energy and natural resources at KPMG in Canada, said events in 2022 demonstrated the complexity of the energy transformation and opened “a more balanced conversation around how Canada can transition to a lower carbon footprint, whilst balancing the need for affordable, readily available electricity.”

Expect further developments on clean electricity
2023 shapes up as a crucial year for Canada’s clean electricity grid.

The federal government announced it will pursue a net-zero electricity grid by 2035 under the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) framework.

It requires mass renewable and clean energy adoption, phasing out fossil fuel electricity generation, rapid electrification and upgrading transmission and storage while accommodating growth in electricity demand.

The first regulations for consultation are expected early in 2023. The plans will lay out pollution regulations and costs for generating assets to accelerate clean energy adoption, according to Evan Pivnick, the clean energy program manager of Clean Energy Canada.

The Independent Energy System Operator of Ontario (IESO) recently published a three-part report suggesting a net-zero conversion for Ontario could cost $400 billion over 25 years, even as the province weighs an electricity market reshuffle to keep up with increasing electricity demand.

Power Utility released research by The Atmospheric Fund that suggests Ontario could reach a net-zero grid by 2035 across various scenarios, despite ongoing debates about Ontario's hydro plan and rate design.

Dale Beguin, executive vice president at the Canadian Climate Institute, said in 2023 he hopes to see more provincial regulators and governments send “strong signals to the utilities” that a pathway to net-zero is realistic.

He recounted increasing talk from investors in facilities such as automotive plants and steel mills who want clean electricity guarantees before making investments. “Clean energy is a comparative advantage,” he said, which puts the imperative on organizations like the IESO to lay out plans for bigger, cleaner and flexible grids.

Beguin and Pivnick said they are watching British Columbia closely because of a government mandate letter setting a climate-aligned energy framework and a new mandate for the British Columbia Utilities Commission. Pivnick said there may be lessons to be drawn for other jurisdictions.

Alberta’s unlikely rise as a clean energy leader
Though Alberta sits at the heart of Canada’s oil and gas industry and at the core of political resistance to climate policy, it has emerged as a front runner in renewables adoption.

Billion of dollars for wind and solar projects have flowed into Alberta, as the province charts a path to clean electricity with large-scale projects.

Pivnick said an “underappreciated story” is how Alberta leaned into renewables through its “unique market.” Alberta leads in renewables and power purchase agreements because of its deregulated electricity market.

Unlike most provinces, Alberta enables companies to go directly to solar and wind developers to strike deals, a model reinforced under Kenney's electricity policies in recent years, rather than through utilities. It incentivizes private investment, lowers costs and helps meet increasing demand, which Nagwan Al-Guneid, the director of the Business Renewables Centre - Canada at the Pembina Institute, said is “is the No. 1 reason we see this boom in renewables in Alberta.”

Beguin noted Alberta’s innovative ‘reverse auctions,’ where the province sets a competitive bidding process to provide electricity. It ended up making electricity “way cheaper” due to the economic competitiveness of renewables, while Alberta profited and added clean energy to its grid.

In 2019, the Business Renewables Centre-Canada established a target of 2 GW of renewable energy deals by 2025. The target was exceeded in 2022, which led to a revised goal for 10 GW of renewables by 2030.

Al-Guneid wants to see other jurisdictions help more companies buy renewables. She does not universally prescribe deregulation, however, as other mechanisms such as sleeving exist.

Alberta will update its industrial carbon pricing in 2023, requiring large emitters to pay $65 per tonne of carbon dioxide. The fee climbs $15 per tonne each year until it reaches $175 per tonne in 2030. Al-Guneid said as the tax increases, demand for renewable energy certificates will also increase in Alberta.

Pivnick noted Alberta will have an election in 2023, which could have ramifications for energy policy.

Batteries and EV leadership
Manufacturing clean energy equipment, batteries and storage requires enormous quantities of minerals. With the 2022 Fall Economic Statement and the Critical Minerals Strategy, Canada is taking important steps to lead on this front.

Pivnick pointed to battery supply chain investments in Ontario and Quebec as part of Canada’s shift from “a fuel-based (economy) to a materials-based economy” to provide materials necessary for wind turbines and solar panels. The Strategy showed an understanding Canada has a major role to meet its allies’ needs for critical minerals, whether it’s the resources or supply chains.

There is also an opportunity for Canada to forge ahead on energy storage. The Fall Economic Statement proposes a 30 per cent tax credit for investments into energy storage. Pivnick suggested Canada invest further into research and development to explore innovations like green hydrogen and pump storage.

Doig believes Canada is “well poised” for batteries, both in terms of the technology and sustainable mining of minerals like cobalt, lithium and copper. He is bullish for Canada’s electrification based on its clean energy use and increased spending on renewables and energy storage.

He said the federal ZEV mandate will drive increased demand for the power, utilities, and oil and gas industries to respond.

The majority of gas stations, which are owned by the nation’s energy industry, will need to be converted into EV charging stations.

Offsetting a recession 
One challenge will be a poor economic forecast in the near term. A short "technical recession" is expected in 2023.

Inflation remains stubbornly high, which has forced the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates. The conditions will not leave any industry unscathed, but Doig said Canada's decarbonization is unlikely to be halted.

“Whilst a recession would slow things down, the concern around energy security definitely helps offset that concern,” he said.

Amid rising trade frictions and tariff threats, energy security is top of mind for governments and private organizations, accelerating the shift to renewables.

Doig said there is a general feeling a recession would be short-lived, meaning it would be unlikely to impact long-term projects in hydrogen, liquified natural gas, carbon capture and wind and solar.

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