Higher price of electric cars a concern for more than half of UK consumers


uk ev

NFPA 70e Training

Our customized live online or in‑person group training can be delivered to your staff at your location.

  • Live Online
  • 6 hours Instructor-led
  • Group Training Available
Regular Price:
$199
Coupon Price:
$149
Reserve Your Seat Today

UK EV Affordability pressures electric car demand as EV prices outpace petrol models; subsidies, battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and charging infrastructure investment shape uptake, CO2 targets, and total cost of ownership.

 

Key Points

UK EV Affordability captures pricing, policy, and infrastructure factors driving electric car demand and adoption.

✅ Higher upfront EV prices dampen consumer demand.

✅ Broader subsidies and PHEV incentives debated.

✅ Massive charging point rollout needed by 2035.

 

Expensive prices for electric cars could hold back the UK’s transition from fossil fuel vehicles, the industry has warned, amid signs that demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is waning, despite a recent surge in inquiries during a fuel supply crisis.

The premium paid for electric cars is a concern for more than half of UK consumers, according to a poll conducted on behalf of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), the UK car industry lobby group, and Brexit-related tariffs risk higher costs for new models.

Despite government subsidies, battery electric cars are still more expensive than those burning petrol or diesel, but carmakers are scrambling to ramp up production and sales as the age of electric cars accelerates across markets in order to meet the new restrictions on emissions that came in this year.

Sales of new battery electric cars have almost tripled to 39,000 in the year to July, but there are signs that demand is falling back even as some analysts predict that drivers will go electric within a decade in the UK. Data from online marketplace Auto Trader show that the average asking price for electric cars fell 5.2% in the year to August.

Ian Plummer, Auto Trader’s commercial director, said the higher “upfront retail price of EVs is somewhat off-putting” for consumers, despite the potential savings from their cheaper running costs.

Mike Hawes, the SMMT’s chief executive, said: “Until these vehicles are as affordable to buy and as easy to own and operate as conventional cars, we risk the UK being in the slow lane, undermining industry investment and holding back progress.”

The SMMT has been calling for the UK government to broaden the subsidies offered to buyers of new electric cars to include plug-in hybrid vehicles, while fairer vehicle taxes are being demanded by EV drivers to support adoption. The withdrawal of subsidies from plug-in hybrids last year prompted a furious reaction from the industry, which argues the controversial technology, which combines an internal combustion engine with a battery, is a crucial stepping stone for consumers.

However, environmental groups argue that the best way to accelerate consumer take-up of electric cars is to bring forward bans on internal combustion engines. The government is committed to banning polluting carbon dioxide-emitting engines by 2040, but is considering moving that forward to 2035 or even as early as 2032.

Both the industry and environmental groups are united in calling for a dramatic increase in investment in charging points to make it more attractive for consumers around the country to switch to electric cars, with industry figures saying the UK must be ready for a surge in EV uptake.

The UK will require as many as 1.7m on-street electric car charging points by the end of the decade, and a further 1.1m by 2035, in order to allow for a zero-emissions car fleet, while experts ask whether the grid can cope with rising demand, according to analysis by the SMMT and consultancy Frost and Sullivan. That would equate to more than 500 new charge points per day over 15 years.

Related News

The government's 2035 electric vehicle mandate is delusional

Canada 2035 Zero-Emission Vehicle Mandate sets EV sales targets, raising concerns over affordability, battery materials like lithium and copper, charging infrastructure, grid capacity, renewable energy mix, and policy impacts across provinces.

 

Key Points

Mandate makes all new light-duty vehicles zero-emission by 2035, affecting costs, charging, and electric grid planning.

✅ 100% ZEV sales target for cars, SUVs, light trucks by 2035

✅ Cost pressures from lithium, copper, nickel; EVs remain pricey

✅ Grid, charging build-out needed; impacts vary by provincial mix

 

Whether or not you want one, can afford one or think they will do essentially nothing to stop global warming, electric vehicles are coming to Canada en masse. This week, the Canadian government set 2035 as the “mandatory target” for the sale of zero-emission SUVs and light-duty trucks as part of ambitious EV goals announced by Ottawa.

That means the sale of gasoline and diesel cars has to stop by then. Transport Minister Omar Alghabra called the target “a must.” The previous target was 2040.

It is a highly aspirational plan that verges on the delusional according to skeptics of an EV revolution who argue its scale is overstated, even if it earns Canada – a perennial laggard on the emission-reduction front – a few points at climate conferences. Herewith, a few reasons why the plan may be unworkable, unfair or less green than advertised.

Liberals say by 2035 all new cars, light-duty trucks sold in Canada will be electric, as Ottawa develops EV sales regulations to implement the mandate.

Parkland to roll out electric-vehicle charging network in B.C. and Alberta

Sticker shock: There is a reason why EVs remain niche products in almost every market in the world (the notable exception is in wealthy Norway): They are bloody expensive and often in short supply in many markets. Unless EV prices drop dramatically in the next decade, Ottawa’s announcement will price the poor out of the car market. Transportation costs are a big issue with the unrich. The 2018 gilets jaunes mass protests in France were triggered by rising fuel costs.

While some EVs are getting cheaper, even the least expensive ones are about double the price of a comparable product with an internal combustion engine. Most EVs are luxury items. The market leader in Canada and the United States is Tesla. In Canada the cheapest Tesla, the Model 3 (“standard range plus” version), costs $49,000 before adding options and subtracting any government purchase incentives. A high-end Model S can set you back $170,000.

To be sure, prices will come down as production volumes increase. But the price decline might be slow for the simple reason that the cost of all the materials needed to make an EV – copper, cobalt, lithium, nickel among them – is climbing sharply and may keep climbing as production increases, straining supply lines.

Lithium prices have doubled since November. Copper has almost doubled in the past year. An EV contains five times more copper than a regular car. Glencore, one of the biggest mining companies, estimated that copper production needs to increase by a million tonnes a year until 2050 to meet the rising demand for EVs and wind turbines, a daunting task given the dearth of new mining projects.

Will EVs be as cheap as gas cars in a decade or so? Impossible to say, but given the recent price trends for raw materials, probably not.

Not so green: There is no such thing as a zero-emission vehicle, even if that’s the label used by governments to describe battery-powered cars. So think twice if you are buying an EV purely to paint yourself green, as research finds they are not a silver bullet for climate change.

In regions in Canada and elsewhere in the world that produce a lot of electricity from fossil-fuel plants, driving an EV merely shifts the output of greenhouse gases and pollutants from the vehicle itself to the generating plant (according to recent estimates, about 18% of Canada’s electricity comes from coal, natural gas and oil; in the United States, 60 per cent).

An EV might make sense in Quebec, where almost all the electricity comes from renewable sources and policymakers push EV dominance across the market. An EV makes little sense in Saskatchewan, where only 17 per cent comes from renewables – the rest from fossil fuels. In Alberta, only 8 per cent comes from renewables.

The EV supply chain is also energy-intensive. And speaking of the environment, recycling or disposing of millions of toxic car batteries is bound to be a grubby process.

Where’s the juice?: Since the roofs of most homes in Canada and other parts of the world are not covered in solar panels, plugging in an EV to recharge the battery means plugging into the electrical grid. What if millions of cars get plugged in at once on a hot day, when everyone is running air conditioners?

The next few decades could emerge as an epic energy battle between power-hungry air conditioners, whose demand is rising as summer temperatures rise, and EVs. The strain of millions of AC units running at once in the summer of 2020 during California’s run of record-high temperatures pushed the state into rolling blackouts. A few days ago, Alberta’s electricity system operator asked Albertans not to plug in their EVs because air conditioner use was straining the electricity supply.

According to the MIT Technology Review, rising incomes, populations and temperatures will triple the number of air conditioners used worldwide, to six billion, by mid-century. How will any warm country have enough power to recharge EVs and run air conditioners at the same time? The Canadian government didn’t say in its news release on the 2035 EV mandate. Will it fund the construction of new fleets of power stations?

The wrong government policy: The government’s announcement made it clear that widespread EV use – more cars – is central to its climate policy. Why not fewer cars and more public transportation? Cities don’t need more cars, no matter the propulsion system. They need electrified buses, subways and trains powered by renewable energy. But the idea of making cities more livable while reducing emissions is apparently an alien concept to this government.

 

Related News

View more

Ottawa to release promised EV sales regulations

Canada ZEV Availability Standard sets EV sales targets and zero-emission mandates, using compliance credits, early credits, and charging infrastructure investments under CEPA to accelerate affordable ZEV supply and meet 2035 net-zero goals.

 

Key Points

A federal ZEV policy setting 2026-2035 sales targets, using tradable credits and infrastructure incentives under CEPA.

✅ Applies to automakers; compliance via tradable ZEV credits under CEPA.

✅ Targets: 20% by 2026, 60% by 2030, 100% by 2035.

✅ Early credits up to 10% for 2026; charging investments earn credits.

 

Canadian Automobile manufacturers are on the brink of significant changes as Ottawa prepares to introduce its long-awaited electric vehicle regulations. A reliable source within the government says final regulations are aimed at ensuring that all new passenger vehicles sold in Canada by 2035 are zero-emission vehicles, a goal some critics question through analyses of the 2035 EV mandate in Canada.

These regulations, known as the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, are designed to encourage automakers to produce more affordable zero-emission vehicles to meet the increasing demand. One of the key concerns for Canada is the potential dominance of zero-emission vehicle supply by other countries, particularly the United States, where several states have already implemented sales targets for such vehicles, and new EPA emission limits are expected to boost EV sales nationwide as well.

It's important to note that these regulations will apply primarily to automakers, rather than dealerships. Under this legislation, manufacturers will be required to accumulate sufficient credits to demonstrate their compliance with the established targets.

Automakers will be able to earn credits based on their sales of low- and no-emissions vehicles. The number of credits earned will depend on how close these vehicles come to meeting a zero-emissions standard. Additionally, manufacturers could earn early credits, amounting to a maximum of 10 percent of their total compliance requirements for 2026, by introducing more electric vehicles to the market ahead of schedule, even amid recent EV shortages and wait times reported across Canada.

Automakers can also increase their credit balance by contributing to the development of electric vehicle charging infrastructure, recognizing that fossil fuels still powered part of Canada's grid in 2019 and that charging availability remains a key enabler. In cases where companies exceed or fall short of their compliance targets, they will have the option to buy or sell credits to other manufacturers or use previously accumulated credits.

Further details regarding these regulations, which will be enacted under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, are set to be unveiled soon and will intersect with provincial approaches such as Quebec's, where experts have questioned the push for EV dominance as policies evolve.

These regulations will become effective starting with the model year 2026, and sales targets will progressively rise each year until 2035. The federal government's ambitious EV goals are to have 20 percent of all vehicles sold in Canada be zero-emission vehicles by 2026, with that figure increasing to 60 percent by 2030 and reaching 100 percent by 2035.

According to a government analysis conducted in 2022, the anticipated total cost to consumers for zero-emission vehicles and chargers over 25 years is estimated at $24.5 billion, though cost remains a primary barrier for many Canadians considering an EV. However, it is projected that Canadians will save approximately $33.9 billion in net energy costs over the same period. Please note that these estimates are part of a draft and may be subject to change upon the government's release of its final analysis.

In terms of environmental impact, these regulations are expected to prevent the release of an estimated 430 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions, according to regulatory analysis. Environmental Defence, a Canadian environmental think-tank, has estimated that the policy would also result in a substantial reduction in gasoline consumption, equivalent to filling approximately 73,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools with gasoline.

Nate Wallace, the program manager for clean transportation at Environmental Defence, emphasized the significance of these regulations, stating, "2035 really needs to be the last year that we are selling gasoline cars in Canada brand new if we're going to have any chance of actually, by 2050, reaching net-zero carbon emissions."

 

Related News

View more

25.5% Of US Electricity Coming From Renewable Energy

US Renewable Energy Growth drives the US electricity mix as wind, solar, and hydropower rise while coal, natural gas, and nuclear decline, boosting market share month over month and year over year across the grid.

 

Key Points

US Renewable Energy Growth tracks rising wind, solar, and hydro shares in the mix as coal, gas, and nuclear decline.

✅ Wind and solar surpass nuclear in April share

✅ Renewables reach 29.3% of US electricity in April

✅ Coal and natural gas shares trend lower since 2020

 

Electricity generated by renewable energy sources continues to grow month over month and year over year in the United States. In April 2022, the share of US electricity coming from renewable energy was up to 29.3%, surpassing a record April level reported previously in national data. That was up from 24.8% in April 2020 and 25.7% in April 2021.

Looking at the first four months of the year, renewables provided 25.5% of US electricity, and were the second-most U.S. source in 2020 as well, while the figure for January–April 2020 was 21.7% and the figure for January–April 2021 was 22.5%.

Coal power (20.2% of US electricity) was down year over year in this time period (from 22% in January–April 2021), even as renewables surpassed coal in 2022 nationwide, but is admittedly still a bit higher than it was in January–April 2020 (16.8%).

Electricity from natural gas is also down year over year, but only very slightly (34.7% for both years). Though, it has dropped significantly since January–April 2020 (39.6%).

Electricity from nuclear power continued to take a steady, step-by-step tumble.

Wind & Solar Power Growth Strong
As reported earlier, April was the first month that wind and solar power provided more electricity than nuclear across the United States. Wind and solar power provided 21% of US electricity, while nuclear power provided 17.8% of US electricity (coal, incidentally, also provided 17.8% of US electricity, but wind and solar had provided more electricity than coal in some previous months as well).

Wind and solar power’s combined market share for the first four months of the year was up from just 14.6% in 2020 and 18.4% in 2021.

Looking at their growth year over year, you can see strong and continuous expansion of solar-provided electricity and wind-provided electricity, amid favorable government plans that have supported deployment.

Solar grew from 2.9% in January–April 2020 to 3.6%in January–April 2021 to, eventually, 4.4% in January–April 2022, with solar's 2022 share rising to 4.7% for the full year. Wind rose from 9.2% to 10.3% to 12.2%.

Together, wind and solar were up from 12.1% in January–April 2020 to 13.9% in January–April 2021, reflecting a surge in wind power within the U.S. electricity mix over this period, to 16.7% January–April 2022.

Hydropower (6.5%) is holding approximately the same position as the same period in 2021 (6.5%), but it is down a significant chunk from April 2020 (8.2%).

 

Related News

View more

Renewables Are Ready to Deliver a Renewable World - Time for Action for 100% Renewable Energy Globally

100% Renewable Energy Transition unites solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal, and bioenergy with storage, smart grids, and sector coupling, delivering decarbonization, energy security, and lower LCOE amid post-Fukushima policy shifts and climate resilience goals.

 

Key Points

It is a pathway using all renewables plus storage and grids to fully decarbonize power, heat, transport, and industry.

✅ Integrates solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and bioenergy

✅ Uses storage, smart grids, and sector coupling for reliability

✅ Requires enabling policies, finance, and rapid deployment

 

Renewable energy organizations representing different spheres of the renewable energy community have gathered on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima nuclear accident to emphasize that renewable energies are not only available in abundance, with global renewable power on course to shatter more records, but ready to deliver a renewable world.

The combination of all renewable technologies, be it bioenergy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy, solar energy or wind power, in particular in combination with storage options, can satisfy all energy needs of mankind, be it for power, heating/cooling, transportation, or industrial processes.

Renewables have seen tremendous growth rates and cost reduction over the past two decades, but there are still many barriers that need to be addressed for a faster renewable energy deployment to eventually achieve global 100% renewable energy, as outlined in an on the road to 100% renewables initiative that charts the path. It is up to political decision-makers to create the legislative and regulatory conditions so that the renewable energy community can act as fast as needed.

Such rapid switch towards renewables is not only a must in light of nuclear risks and the growing threats of climate change, but also the necessary response to the current pandemic situation. And it will allow those hundreds of millions of humans in unserved areas to get for the first time ever access to modern energy services, as noted by a new IRENA report that details how renewables can decarbonise the energy sector and improve lives.

Speakers from the renewable energy community presented today in a joint webinar that a renewable future is a realistic vision, representing:

Energy Watch Group, Global100RE Platform, Global100RE Strategy Group, International Geothermal Association, ISEP Japan, REN Alliance, World Bioenergy Association, World Wind Energy Association.

Dr. Tetsunari Iida, Director of the Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies ISEP Japan:

Ten years ago, on 11 March 2021, the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident occurred. It is a "coincidence of global history" that it now coincides with the starting point of the 100% renewable energy initiative that is accelerating around the world.

The world has changed dramatically since 311. Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Taiwan, South Korea, China and many other countries were all shocked by 311 and shifted their focus from nuclear power to renewable energy, and in the U.S. clean energy industries are setting sights on market majority to accelerate this trend. The next ten years will be the decade in which this perception will rapidly become the "new reality". 311 was the "starting point" for a structural energy shift in world history.

Hans-Josef Fell, former MP, President of the Energy Watch Group and co-initiator of the Global100RE Strategy Group:

The disasters of Fukushima and Chernobyl are urging the entire world to quickly end the use of atomic energy, and many call for a fossil fuel lockdown to catalyze a climate revolution alongside the transition. Contrary to what is often claimed, nuclear energy cannot make a contribution to climate protection, but only creates immense problems with toxic radioactivity emissions, nuclear waste, atomic bomb material and the dangers of a nuclear catastrophe. In contrast, 100% renewable energies until 2030 can help achieve climate protection and a simultaneous nuclear phase-out, according to a recently published statement by a world-leading group of energy researchers from the USA, EU and Australia.

Their research suggests that a 100% renewable energy supply, including storage systems, can provide full energy security for all of mankind by 2030 and will even be cheaper than the existing nuclear and fossil energy supply, and with over 30% of global electricity already from renewables, momentum is strong. The only requirement for implementation is the right decisions taken by decision makers both in governments and industry. All technical and economic prerequisites for a disruptive conversion of the global energy supply to 100% renewable energies are already in place.

Hon. Peter Rae AO, President of WWEA and Honorary Chairman of the REN Alliance:

40 years ago, the idea of developing nuclear power appealed to me as a non-polluting method of generating electricity. So I studied it. How to deal with waste and how to ensure it would not create a danger to life. Along came Chernobyl and other accidents. Storage of waste was leaving dangerous hiding places while some waste was alleged to be dumped at sea. I became more and more concerned. There were demonstrations that the existing methods were dangerous and required very strict construction and operational tolerances - up went the cost. Long delays and huge cost increases. I had visited nuclear power stations and talked to expert proponents in UK, France, US, Taiwan and Australia, and debates such as New Zealand's electricity future reflect similar concerns. The more I did the more certain I became that it was not the way to go. Then Fukushima put the dangers and cost beyond doubt.

Let's get on with the rollover to renewables.

Dr. Marit Brommer, Executive Director of the International Geothermal Association IGA:

The IGA is proud to work with all renewable energy associations to continuously provide a unified voice to a cleaner energy future. The Geothermal sector is proven to be a partner of choice for many locations in the world serving baseload power and clean heat to customers. We are particularly interested in the increased attention system integration gets, which underpins the importance of all renewables coming together at events such as the webinar organised by the WWEA.

Christian Rakos, President of the World Bioenergy Association:

The IPCC has emphasized the important role of sustainable bioenergy for climate protection. Recent advances in technology allow us to use feedstock from forestry, wood processing and agricultural production in an efficient and clean way. Today, bioenergy already contributes 12 - 13% to global final energy demand. Importantly, contribution from bioenergy is more than 5 times as much as nuclear energy worldwide. Together with other renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind, geothermal and hydropower, bioenergy can increase the contribution in a substantial way to meet the energy demands of all end use sectors and meet the international energy and climate goals.

Stefan Gsanger, Secretary General of the World Wind Energy Association and Co-chair of the Global100RE Platform:

The switch to a renewable energy future requires new political and economic thinking: from centralised structures with few large actors towards decentralised, participatory models with millions of communities and citizens playing an active role, not only as consumers but also as producers of energy. To make this new paradigm the predominant energy paradigm is the true challenge of the energy transformation which we as the world community are facing. If we manage this shift well and on time, billions of people across the globe, in industrialised and developing countries alike, will benefit and will face a bright future.

 

Related News

View more

Spain Breaks Gas Link with Wind and Solar

Spain has broken its reliance on fossil gas as soaring wind and solar energy drive Europe’s lowest wholesale electricity prices, reducing emissions, stabilizing the grid, and advancing renewable power, energy independence, and clean transition goals across the EU.

 

How Has Spain Broken the Gas Link with Wind and Solar??

Spain has broken the link between gas and power prices by rapidly expanding wind and solar generation, which now supplies nearly half its electricity, cutting fossil fuel influence by 75% since 2019 and reducing power costs 32% below the EU average.

✅ Wind and solar cut fossil influence by 75% since 2019

✅ Power prices 32% below EU average in 2025

✅ Renewables meet nearly half of national electricity demand

 

Spain has emerged as one of Europe’s most affordable electricity markets, largely due to its rapid expansion of wind and solar power. By decoupling its wholesale electricity prices from volatile fossil gas and coal, Spain has achieved a 32 percent lower average wholesale price than the EU average in the first half of 2025. This remarkable shift marks a dramatic turnaround from 2019, when Spain had some of the highest power prices in Europe.

According to new data, the influence of fossil fuels on Spain’s electricity prices has fallen by 75 percent since 2019, mirroring how renewables have surpassed fossil fuels in Europe over the same period, dropping from 75 percent of hours tied to gas costs to just 19 percent in early 2025. “Spain has broken the ruinous link between power prices and volatile fossil fuels, something its European neighbours are desperate to do,” said Dr. Chris Rosslowe, Senior Energy Analyst at Ember.

The change is driven by a surge in renewable generation. Between 2019 and mid-2025, Spain added more than 40 gigawatts of new solar and wind capacity—second only to Germany, whose power market is twice the size. Wind and solar now meet nearly half (46 percent) of Spain’s electricity demand, compared with 27 percent six years ago. As a result, fossil generation has fallen to 20 percent of total demand, well below the levels seen in other major economies such as Germany (41 percent) and Italy (43 percent).

This renewable growth has also cut Spain’s dependence on imported fuels. In the past five years, new solar and wind plants have avoided 26 billion cubic metres of gas imports, saving €13.5 billion—five times the amount the country invested in transmission infrastructure over the same period. The Central Bank of Spain estimated that wholesale electricity prices would have been 40 percent higher in 2024 if renewables had not displaced fossil generation, and neighboring France has seen negative prices during periods of renewable surplus.

August 2025 marked a historic milestone: Spain recorded a full month without coal-fired generation for the first time. A decade earlier, coal accounted for a quarter of the nation’s electricity supply. Gas use has also declined steadily, from 26% of demand in 2019 to 19% this year.

However, the system still faces challenges. Following the April 28th Iberian blackout, Spain has relied more heavily on gas-fired plants to stabilize the grid. These services—such as voltage control and balancing—have proven to be expensive, with costs doubling since the blackout and accounting for 57 percent of the average electricity price in May 2025, up from 14 percent the previous year. Curtailment of renewables has also tripled, reaching 7.2 percent of generation between May and July.

Despite being Europe’s fourth-largest electricity market, Spain ranks only 13th in battery storage capacity, underscoring the need for further investment in clean flexibility solutions, such as grid-scale batteries to provide flexibility and stronger interconnections. Post-blackout reforms aim to address this weakness and ensure the gains from renewable integration are not lost.

“Spain risks sliding back into costly gas reliance amid post-blackout fears,” warned Rosslowe. “Boosting grids and batteries will help Spain break free from fossil dependency for good.”

With record-low electricity prices and one of the fastest decoupling rates in Europe, Spain’s experience demonstrates how large-scale wind and solar adoption can reshape energy economics—and offers a roadmap for other nations seeking to escape the volatility of fossil fuels.

View more

US Moving Towards 30% Electricity From Wind & Solar

US Wind and Solar Outlook 2026 projects cheap renewables displacing coal and gas, with utility-scale additions, rooftop solar growth, improved grid reliability, and EV V2G integration accelerating decarbonization across the electricity market.

 

Key Points

An analysis forecasting wind and solar growth, displacing coal and gas as utility-scale and rooftop solar expand.

✅ Utility-scale solar installs avg 21 GW/yr through 2026.

✅ 37.7 GW wind in pipeline; 127.8 GW already online.

✅ Small-scale solar could near 100 TWh in 2026.

 

A recent report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) predicts that cheap renewables in the form of wind and solar will push coal and gas out of the energy market space. Already at 9% of US generation, the report predicts that wind and solar will supply almost 30% of US electricity demand by 2026, consistent with renewables nearing one-fourth of U.S. generation projections for the near term.

“The Solar Energy Industries Association now expects utility-scale installations to average more than 21,000MW a year through 2026, following a year when U.S. solar generation rose 25% and with a peak of 25,000MW in 2023,” IEEFA writes. “Continued growth is also expected in U.S. wind generation, mirroring global trends where China's solar PV expansion outpaced all other fuels in 2016, with 37.7GW of new capacity already under construction or in advanced development, which would be added to 127.8GW in existing installed capacity.”

Meanwhile, with wind and solar growth booming, fossil fuels are declining, as renewables surpassed coal in 2022 nationwide. “Coal and natural gas are now locked into an essentially zero-sum game where increases in one fuel’s generation comes at the expense of the other. Together, they are not gaining market share, rather they are trading it back and forth, and the rapid growth in renewable generation will cut even deeper into the market share of both.”

And what of rooftop solar? Some states in Australia now have periods where the entire state grid is powered just by solar on the roofs of private citizens. As this revolution progresses in the USA, especially if a tenfold national solar push moves forward, what impact will it make on fossil fuel generators — which are expensive to build, expensive to maintain, expensive to fuel, and rely on an expensive distribution network.

“EIA estimates that this ‘small-scale solar’ produced 41.7 million MWh of power in 2020, when solar accounted for about 3% of U.S. electricity, a 19 percent increase from 2019. This growth will likely continue in the years ahead as costs continue to fall and concerns about grid reliability rise. Assuming a conservative 15 percent annual increase in small-scale solar going forward would push the sector’s generation to almost 100 million MWh in 2026.”

The Joker in the story might be the impact from electric vehicle adoption. Sales are set to surge and there’s more and more interest in V2G technology, even as wind and solar could provide 50% by 2050 in broader forecasts.

 

Related News

View more

Sign Up for Electricity Forum’s Newsletter

Stay informed with our FREE Newsletter — get the latest news, breakthrough technologies, and expert insights, delivered straight to your inbox.

Electricity Today T&D Magazine Subscribe for FREE

Stay informed with the latest T&D policies and technologies.
  • Timely insights from industry experts
  • Practical solutions T&D engineers
  • Free access to every issue

Download the 2025 Electrical Training Catalog

Explore 50+ live, expert-led electrical training courses –

  • Interactive
  • Flexible
  • CEU-cerified