Dutch produce more green electricity but target still a long way off

Southeast Electricity Demand Forecast examines how energy efficiency, photovoltaics, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and demand response shape grid needs, stabilize load through 2030, shift peaks, and inform utility planning across the region.

Key Points

An outlook of load shaped by efficiency, solar, EVs, with demand response keeping usage steady through 2030.

✅ Stabilizes regional demand through 2030 under accelerated adoption

✅ Energy efficiency and demand response are primary levers

✅ EVs and heat pumps drive growth post 2030; shift winter peaks

Electricity markets in the Southeast are facing many changes on the customer side of the meter. In a new report released today, we look at how energy efficiency, photovoltaics (solar electricity), electric vehicles, heat pumps, and demand response (shifting loads from periods of high demand) might affect electricity needs in the Southeast.

We find that if all of these resources are pursued on an accelerated basis, electricity demand in the region can be stabilized until about 2030.

After that, demand will likely grow in the following decade because of increased market penetration of electric vehicles and heat pumps, but energy planners will have time to deal with this growth if these projections are borne out. We also find that energy efficiency and demand response can be vital for managing electricity supply and demand in the region and that these resources can help contain energy demand growth, reducing the impact of expensive new generation on consumer wallets.

National trends

This is the second ACEEE report looking at regional electricity demand. In 2016, we published a study on electricity consumption in New England, finding an even more pronounced effect. For New England, with even more aggressive pursuit of energy efficiency and these other resources, consumption was projected to decline through about 2030, before rebounding in the following decade.

These regional trends fit into a broader national pattern. In the United States, electricity consumption has been characterized by flat electricity demand for the past decade. Increased energy efficiency efforts have contributed to this lack of consumption growth, even as the US economy has grown since the Great Recession. Recently, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA – a branch of the US Department of Energy) released data on US electricity consumption in 2016, finding that 2016 consumption was 0.3% below 2015 consumption, and other analysts reported a 1% slide in 2023 on milder weather.

Five scenarios for the Southeast

ACEEE’s new study focuses on the Southeast because it is very different from New England, with warmer weather, more economic growth, and less-aggressive energy efficiency and distributed energy policies than the Northeast. For the Southeast, we examined five scenarios: a business-as-usual scenario; two alternative scenarios with progressively higher levels of energy efficiency, photovoltaics informed by a solar strategy for the South that is emerging regionally, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and demand response; and two scenarios combining high numbers of electric vehicles and heat pumps with more modest levels of the other resources. This figure presents electricity demand for each of these scenarios:

Over the 2016-2040 period, we project that average annual growth will range from 0.1% to 1.0%, depending on the scenario, much slower than historic growth in the region. Energy efficiency is generally the biggest contributor to changes in projected 2040 electricity consumption relative to the business-as-usual scenario, as shown in the figure below, which presents our accelerated scenario that is based on levels of energy efficiency and other resources now targeted by leading states and utilities in the Southeast.

To date, Entergy Arkansas has achieved the annual efficiency savings as a percent of sales shown in the accelerated scenario and Progress Energy (a division of Duke Energy) has nearly achieved those savings in both North and South Carolina. Sixteen states outside the Southeast have also achieved these savings statewide.

The efficiency savings shown in the aggressive scenario have been proposed by the Arkansas PSC. This level of savings has already been achieved by Arizona as well as six other states. Likewise, the demand response savings we model have been achieved by more than 10 utilities, including four in the Southeast. The levels of photovoltaic, electric vehicle, and heat pump penetration are more speculative and are subject to significant uncertainty.

We also examined trends in summer and winter peak demand. Most utilities in the Southeast have historically had peak demand in the summer, often seeing heatwave-driven surges that stress operations across the Eastern U.S., but our analysis shows that winter peaks will be more likely in the region as photovoltaics and demand response reduce summer peaks and heat pumps increase winter peaks.

Why it’s vital to plan broadly

Our analysis illustrates the importance of incorporating energy efficiency, demand response, and photovoltaics into utility planning forecasts as utility trends to watch continue to evolve. Failing to include these resources leads to much higher forecasts, resulting in excess utility system investments, unnecessarily increasing customer electricity rates. Our analysis also illustrates the importance of including electric vehicles and heat pumps in long-term forecasts. While these technologies will have moderate impacts over the next 10 years, they could become increasingly important in the long run.

We are entering a dynamic period of substantial uncertainty for long-term electricity sales and system peaks, highlighted by COVID-19 demand shifts that upended typical patterns. We need to carefully observe and analyze developments in energy efficiency, photovoltaics, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and demand response over the next few years. As these technologies advance, we can create policies to reduce energy bills, system costs, and harmful emissions, drawing on grid reliability strategies tested in Texas, while growing the Southeast’s economy. Resource planners should be sure to incorporate these emerging trends and policies into their long-term forecasts and planning.

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EV-Driven Electricity Demand Growth will reshape utilities through electrification, EV adoption, grid modernization, and ratebasing of charging, as NREL forecasts rising terawatt-hours, CAGR increases, and demand-side flexibility to manage emissions and reliability.

Key Points

Growth in power consumption fueled by EV adoption and electrification, increasing utility sales and grid investment.

✅ NREL projects 20%-38% higher U.S. load by 2050

✅ Utilities see CAGR up to 1.6% and 80 TWh/year growth

✅ Demand-side flexibility and EV charging optimize grids

Utilities have struggled with flat demand for years, but analysis by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory predicts steady growth across the next three decades — largely driven by the adoption of electric vehicles, including models like the Tesla Model 3 that are reshaping expectations.

The study considers three scenarios, a reference case and medium- and high-adoption electrification predictions. All indicate demand growth, but in the medium and high scenarios for 2050, U.S. electricity consumption increases by 20% and 38%, respectively, compared to business as usual.

Utilities could go from stagnant demand to compound annual growth rates of 1.6%, which would amount to sustained absolute growth of 80 terawatt-hours per year.

"This unprecedented absolute growth in annual electricity consumption can significantly alter supply-side infrastructure development requirements," the report says, and could challenge state power grids in multiple regions.

NREL's Trieu Mai, principal investigator for the study, cautions that more research is needed to fully assess the drivers and impacts of electrification, "as well as the role and value of demand-side flexibility."

"Although we extensively and qualitatively discuss the potential drivers and barriers behind electric technology adoption in the report, much more work is needed to quantitatively understand these factors," Mai said in a statement.

However, utilities have largely bought into the dream.

"Electric vehicles are the biggest opportunity we see right now," Energy Impact Partners CEO Hans Kobler told Utility Dive. And the impact could go beyond just higher kilowattt-hour sales, particularly as electric truck fleets come online.

"When the transportation sector is fully electrified, it will result in around $6 trillion in investment," Kobler said. "Half of that is on the infrastructure side of the utility." And the industry can also benefit through ratebasing charging stations and managing the new demand.

One benefit that NREL's report points to is the possibility of "expanded value streams enabled by electric and/or grid-connected technologies," such as energy storage and mobile chargers that enhance flexibility.

"Many electric utilities are carefully watching the trend toward electrification, as it has the potential to increase sales and revenues that have stagnated or fallen over the past decade," the report said, highlighting potential benefits for all customers as adoption grows. "Beyond power system planning, other motivations to study electrification include its potential to impact energy security, emissions, and innovation in electrical end-use technologies and overall efficient system integration. The impacts of electrification could be far-reaching and have benefits and costs to various stakeholders."

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Canada Clean Electricity Exports leverage hydroelectric power, energy storage, and transmission interconnections to meet rising IEA-forecast demand, support electrification, decarbonize grids, and attract green finance with stable policy and advanced technology.

Key Points

Canada's cross-border power sales from hydro and renewables, enabled by storage, transmission, and supportive policy.

✅ Hydro leads generation; expand transmission interties to the US

✅ Deploy storage to balance wind and solar variability

✅ Streamline regulation and green finance to scale exports

As global electricity demand continues to surge, Canada finds itself uniquely positioned to capitalize on this expanding market by choosing an electric, connected and clean pathway that scales with demand. With its vast natural resources, advanced technology, and stable political environment, Canada can play a crucial role in meeting the world’s energy needs while also advancing its own economic interests.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that global electricity demand will grow significantly over the next decade, driven by factors such as population growth, urbanization, and the increasing electrification of various sectors, including transportation and industry. This presents a golden opportunity for Canada to bolster its energy security as it boasts an abundance of renewable energy sources, particularly hydroelectric power. Currently, hydroelectricity accounts for about 60% of Canada’s total electricity generation, making it one of the largest producers of this clean energy source in the world.

The growing emphasis on renewable energy aligns perfectly with Canada’s strengths, with the Prairie Provinces emerging as leaders in new wind and solar capacity across the country. As countries worldwide strive to reduce their carbon footprints and transition to greener energy solutions, Canada’s clean energy resources can be harnessed not only to meet domestic needs but also to export electricity to neighboring countries and beyond. The U.S., for instance, is already a significant market for Canadian electricity, with interconnections facilitating the flow of power across borders. Expanding these connections and investing in infrastructure could further increase Canada’s electricity exports.

Moreover, advancements in energy storage technology present another avenue for Canada to enhance its role in the global electricity market. With the rise of intermittent energy sources like wind and solar, the ability to store excess electricity generated during peak production times becomes essential. Canada’s expertise in technology and innovation positions it well to develop and deploy energy storage solutions that can stabilize the grid through grid modernization projects and ensure a reliable supply of electricity.

Additionally, Canada’s commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change aligns with the global shift towards sustainable energy. By investing in renewable energy projects and supporting research and development, Canada can not only meet its climate targets, including zero-emissions electricity by 2035, but also attract international investment. Green financing initiatives are becoming increasingly popular, and Canada can leverage its reputation as a leader in environmental stewardship to tap into this growing market.

However, to fully realize these opportunities, Canada must address some key challenges. Regulatory hurdles, infrastructure limitations, and the need for a coordinated national energy strategy are critical issues that must be navigated. Streamlining regulations and fostering collaboration between federal and provincial governments will be essential in creating a conducive environment for investment in renewable energy projects.

Furthermore, public acceptance and community engagement are vital components of developing new energy projects, especially where solar power adoption lags and outreach is needed. Ensuring that local communities benefit from these initiatives—whether through job creation, economic investment, or shared revenues—will help garner support and facilitate smoother project implementation.

In addition to domestic efforts, Canada should also position itself as a global leader in energy diplomacy. By collaborating with other nations to share best practices, technologies, and resources, Canada can strengthen its influence in international energy discussions. Engaging in multilateral initiatives aimed at addressing energy poverty and promoting sustainable development will not only enhance Canada’s standing on the world stage but also open doors for Canadian companies to expand their reach.

In conclusion, as the global demand for electricity rises, Canada stands at a crossroads, with a tremendous opportunity to lead in the clean energy sector. By leveraging its natural resources, investing in technology, and fostering international partnerships, Canada can not only meet its energy needs but also pursue zero-emission electricity by 2035 while positioning itself as a key player in the global electricity market. The path forward will require strategic planning, investment, and collaboration, but the potential rewards are significant—both for Canada and the planet.

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Crouching Yeti APT targets energy infrastructure with watering-hole attacks, compromising servers to steal credentials and stage intrusions; Kaspersky Lab links the Energetic Bear group to ICS threats across Russia, US, Europe, and Turkey.

Key Points

Crouching Yeti APT, aka Energetic Bear, is a threat group that targets energy firms using watering-hole attacks.

✅ Targets energy infrastructure via watering-hole compromises

✅ Uses open-source tools and backdoored sshd for persistence

✅ Scans global servers to stage intrusions and steal credentials

A hacker collective known for attacking industrial companies around the world have had some of their infrastructure identified by Russian security specialists.

Kaspersky Lab said that it has discovered a number of servers compromised by the group, belonging to different organisations based in Russia, the US, and Turkey, as well as European countries.

The Russian-speaking hackers, known as Crouching Yeti or Energetic Bear, mostly focus on energy facilities, as seen in reports of infiltration of the U.S. power grid targeting critical infrastructure, for the main purpose of stealing valuable data from victim systems.

Hacked servers

Crouching Yeti is described as an advanced persistent threat (APT) group that Kaspersky Lab has been tracking since 2010.

#google#

Kaspersky Lab said that the servers it has compromised are not just limited to industrial companies. The servers were hit in 2016 and 2017 with different intentions. Some were compromised to gain access to other resources or to be used as intermediaries to conduct attacks on other resources.

Others, including those hosting Russian websites, were used as watering holes.

It is a common tactic for Crouching Yeti to utilise watering hole attacks where the attackers inject websites with a link redirecting visitors to a malicious server.

“In the process of analysing infected servers, researchers identified numerous websites and servers used by organisations in Russia, US, Europe, Asia and Latin America that the attackers had scanned with various tools, possibly to find a server that could be used to establish a foothold for hosting the attackers’ tools and to subsequently develop an attack,” said the security specialists in a blog posting.

“The range of websites and servers that captured the attention of the intruders is extensive,” the firm said. “Kaspersky Lab researchers found that the attackers had scanned numerous websites of different types, including online stores and services, public organisations, NGOs, manufacturing, etc.

Kaspersky Lab said that the hackers used publicly available malicious tools, designed for analysing servers, and for seeking out and collecting information. The researchers also found a modified sshd file with a preinstalled backdoor. This was used to replace the original file and could be authorised with a ‘master password’.

“Crouching Yeti is a notorious Russian-speaking group that has been active for many years and is still successfully targeting industrial organisations through watering hole attacks, among other techniques,” explained Vladimir Dashchenko, head of vulnerability research group at Kaspersky Lab ICS CERT.

Russian government?

“Our findings show that the group compromised servers not only for establishing watering holes, but also for further scanning, and they actively used open-sourced tools that made it much harder to identify them afterwards,” he said.

“The group’s activities, such as initial data collection, the theft of authentication data, and the scanning of resources, are used to launch further attacks,” said Dashchenko. “The diversity of infected servers and scanned resources suggests the group may operate in the interests of the third parties.”

This may well tie into a similar conclusion from a rival security vendor.

In 2014 CrowdStrike claimed that the ‘Energetic Bear’ group was also tracked in Symantec's Dragonfly research and had been hacking foreign companies on behalf of the Russian state.

The security vendor had said the group had been carrying out attacks on foreign companies since 2012, with reports of breaches at U.S. power plants that underscored the campaign, and there was evidence that these operations were sanctioned by the Russian government.

Last month the United States for the first time publicly accused Russia in a condemnation of Russian grid hacking of attacks against the American power grid.

Symantec meanwhile warned last year of a resurgence in cyber attacks on European and US energy companies, including reports of access to U.S. utility control rooms that could result in widespread power outages.

And last July the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) acknowledged it was investigating a broad wave of attacks on companies in the British energy and manufacturing sectors.

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Hong Kong Electricity Tariff Increase reflects a projected 1-2% rise as HK Electric and CLP Power shift to cleaner fuel and natural gas, expand gas-fired units and LNG terminals, and adjust the fuel clause charge.

Key Points

An expected 1-2% 2018 rise from cleaner fuel, natural gas projects, asset growth, and shrinking fuel cost surpluses.

✅ Expected 1-2% rise amid cleaner fuel and gas shift

✅ Fuel clause charge and asset expansion pressure prices

✅ HK Electric and CLP Power urged to use surpluses prudently

Hong Kong customers have been asked to expect higher electricity bills next year, as seen with BC Hydro rate increases in Canada, with a member of a government panel on energy policy anticipating an increase in tariffs of one or two per cent.

The environment minister, Wong Kam-sing, also hinted they should be prepared to dig deeper into their pockets for electricity, as debates over California electric bills illustrate, in the wake of power companies needing to use more expensive but cleaner fuel to generate power in the future.

HK Electric supplies power to Hong Kong Island, Lamma Island and Ap Lei Chau. Photo: David Wong

The city’s two power companies, HK Electric and CLP Power, are to brief lawmakers on their respective annual tariff adjustments for 2018, amid Ontario electricity price pressures drawing international attention, at a Legislative Council economic development panel meeting on Tuesday.

HK Electric supplies electricity to Hong Kong Island and neighbouring Lamma Island and Ap Lei Chau, while CLP Power serves Kowloon and the New Territories, including Lantau Island.

Wong said on Monday: “We have to appreciate that when we use cleaner fuel, there is a need for electricity tariffs to keep pace. I believe it is the hope of mainstream society to see a low-carbon and healthier environment.”

Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing believes most people desire a low-carbon environment. Photo: Sam Tsang

But he declined to comment on how much the tariffs might rise.

World Green Organisation chief executive William Yu Yuen-ping, also a member of the Energy Advisory Committee, urged the companies to better use their “overflowing” surpluses in their fuel cost recovery accounts.

Tariffs are comprised of two components: a basic amount reflecting a company’s operating costs and investments, and the fuel clause charge, which is based on what the company projects it will pay for fuel for the year.

William Yu of World Green Organisation says the companies should use their surpluses more carefully. Photo: May Tse

Critics have claimed the local power suppliers routinely overestimate their fuel costs and amass huge surpluses.

In recent years, the two managed to freeze or cut their tariffs thanks to savings from lower fuel costs. Last year, HK Electric offered special rebates to its customers, which saw its tariff drop by 17.2 per cent. CLP Power froze its own charge for 2017.

Yu said the two companies should use the surpluses “more carefully” to stabilise tariffs.

Rise after fall in Hong Kong electricity use linked to subsidies

“We estimate a big share of the surplus has been used up and so the honeymoon period is over.”

Based on his group’s research, Yu believed the tariffs would increase by one or two per cent.

Economist and fellow committee member Billy Mak Sui-choi said the expansion of the power companies’ fixed asset bases, such as building new gas-fired units and offshore liquefied natural gas terminals, a pattern reflected in Nova Scotia's 14% rate hike recently approved by regulators, would also cause tariffs to rise.

To fight climate change and improve air quality, the government has pledged to cut carbon intensity by between 50 and 60 per cent by 2020. Officials set a target of boosting the use of natural gas for electricity generation to half the total fuel mix from 2020.

Both power companies are privately owned and monitored by the government through a mutually agreed scheme of control agreements, akin to oversight seen under the UK energy price cap in other jurisdictions. These require the firms to seek government approval for their development plans, including their projected basic tariff levels.

At present, the permitted rate of return on their net fixed assets is 9.99 per cent. The deals are due to expire late next year.

Earlier this year, officials reached a deal with the two companies on the post-2018 scheme, settling on a 15-year term. The new agreements slash their permitted rate of return to 8 per cent.

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New York Solar Milestone accelerates renewable energy adoption, meeting targets early with 8,000 MW capacity powering 1.1 million homes, boosting green jobs, community solar, battery storage, and grid reliability under the CLCPA clean energy framework.

Key Points

It is New York achieving its solar goal early, powering 1.1M homes and advancing CLCPA renewable targets.

✅ 8,000 MW installed, enough to power about 1.1M homes

✅ CLCPA targets: 70 percent renewables by 2030

✅ Community solar, storage, and green jobs scaling statewide

In a remarkable display of commitment to renewable energy, New York has achieved its solar energy targets a year ahead of schedule, marking a significant milestone in the state's clean energy journey, and aligning with a national trend where renewables reached a record 28% in April nationwide. With the addition of solar power capacity capable of powering over a million homes, New York is not just setting the pace for solar adoption but is also establishing itself as a leader in the fight against climate change.

A Commitment to Renewable Energy

New York’s ambitious clean energy agenda is part of a broader effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to sustainable energy sources. The state's goal, established under the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA), aims for 70% of its electricity to come from renewable sources by 2030. With the recent advancements in solar energy, including contracts for 23 renewable projects totaling 2.3 GW, New York is well on its way to achieving that goal, demonstrating that aggressive policy frameworks can lead to tangible results.

The Numbers Speak for Themselves

As of now, New York has successfully installed more than 8,000 megawatts (MW) of solar energy capacity, supported by large-scale energy projects underway across New York that are expanding the grid. This achievement translates to enough electricity to power approximately 1.1 million homes, showcasing the state's investment in harnessing the sun’s power. The rapid expansion of solar installations reflects both increasing consumer interest and supportive policies that facilitate growth in the renewable energy sector.

Economic Benefits and Job Creation

The surge in solar energy capacity has not only environmental implications but also significant economic benefits. The solar industry in New York has become a substantial job creator, employing tens of thousands of individuals across various sectors. From manufacturing solar panels to installation and maintenance, the job opportunities associated with this growth are diverse and vital for local economies.

Moreover, as solar installations increase, the state benefits from reduced electricity costs over time. By investing in renewable energy, New York is paving the way for a more resilient and sustainable energy future, while simultaneously providing economic opportunities for its residents.

Community Engagement and Accessibility

New York's solar success is also tied to its efforts to engage communities and increase access to renewable energy. Initiatives such as community solar programs allow residents who may not have the means or space to install solar panels on their homes to benefit from solar energy. These programs provide an inclusive approach, ensuring that low-income households and underserved communities have access to clean energy solutions.

The state has also implemented various incentives to encourage solar adoption, including tax credits, rebates, and financing options. These efforts not only promote environmental sustainability but also aim to make solar energy more accessible to all New Yorkers, furthering the commitment to equity in the energy transition.

Innovations and Future Prospects

New York's solar achievements are complemented by ongoing innovations in technology and energy storage solutions. The integration of battery storage systems is becoming increasingly important, reflecting growth in solar and storage in the coming years, and allowing for the capture and storage of solar energy for use during non-sunny periods. This technology enhances grid reliability and supports the state’s goal of transitioning to a fully sustainable energy system.

Looking ahead, New York aims to continue this momentum. The state is exploring additional strategies to increase renewable energy capacity, including plans to investigate sites for offshore wind across its coastline, and other clean energy technologies. By diversifying its renewable energy portfolio, New York is positioning itself to meet and even exceed future energy demands while reducing its carbon footprint.

A Model for Other States

New York’s success story serves as a model for other states aiming to enhance their renewable energy capabilities, with its approval of the biggest offshore wind farm underscoring that leadership. The combination of strong policy frameworks, community engagement, and technological innovation can inspire similar initiatives nationwide. As more states look to address climate change, New York’s proactive approach can provide valuable insights into effective strategies for solar energy deployment.

New York’s achievement of its solar energy goals a year ahead of schedule is a testament to the state's unwavering commitment to sustainability and renewable energy. With the capacity to power over a million homes, this milestone not only signifies progress in clean energy adoption but also highlights the potential for economic growth and community engagement. As New York continues on its path toward a greener future, and stays on the road to 100% renewables by mid-century, it sets a powerful example for others to follow, proving that ambitious renewable energy goals can indeed become a reality.

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