EU emissions down 2.6 percent as recession continues

By Reuters


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Last year, some 1,888 million tonnes Mt of greenhouse gases were emitted by the 27 countries that participate in the European UnionÂ’s Emissions Trading Scheme EU ETS, plus Norway. This decrease in emissions, equivalent to 2.6 percent on the comparable 2010 figure of 1,939 Mt, reflects a deteriorating economic outlook towards the end of 2011 and mild weather, according to Thomson Reuters Point Carbon, the leading provider of market intelligence, news, analysis, forecasting and advisory services for the energy and environmental markets.

Moreover, emissions last year came in 114 million tons below the 2011 EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) cap, meaning the scheme was oversupplied for the third year in a row and the sixth time in seven years and indicating that recovery has still not returned European economies to their pre-crash levels.

The analysis is based on the verified emissions data published today by the European Commission via its Community Independent Transaction Log (CITL) for 9,977 installations accounting for 90 percent of 2010 emissions.

According to Thomson Reuters Point Carbon, the data in 2011 saw the tide turn in terms of the emissions generated by the economies of Europe, as early positive developments slowed and turned to declining output and a related decline in emissions towards the end of the year.

The largest relative changes were seen in the power and heat sector. This sector saw emissions decreasing by 41 million tons to 1,141 million tons as “a mild winter and increased renewable generation, especially from wind and solar power, outweighed the impact on emissions from the shutdown of nuclear power plants in Germany”, said Yan Qin, Senior Modeling Analyst for Thomson Reuters Point Carbon.

Qin added that there is still some uncertainty surrounding the heat sector as France has submitted only 25 percent of its emissions so far. France has a very large proportion of electric heating facilities so its emissions are affected considerably by weather patterns.

In the industrial sectors, emissions were down to 746 million tons, a decrease of 12 million tons year-on-year, “due to declining production levels towards the end of the year and assumed modest intensity improvements”, explained Bjørn Inge Vik, Senior Carbon Analyst for Thomson Reuters Point Carbon.

According to Marcus Ferdinand, Senior Market Analyst, Thomson Reuters Point Carbon, “the outcome of the 2011 emissions data is below market expectations and will have an additional bearish impact on the current low carbon prices. However, the lower than expected verified emission numbers could increase support for the set-aside of allowances in phase three of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)”.

Ferdinand adds that “we started the 2011 with expectations for steady growth and recovery for most sectors after the financial crisis and, indeed, the first half of the year looked promising with positive economic indicators and industrial production levels growing.

However, concerns over Greek and southern European debt escalated during the latter half of the year and worries over slowing growth in the Euro zone and the possibility of another recession materialized in slowing production levels for important industry sectors, reflected in the drop in emissions”.

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EasyPower Webinars - August and September Schedule

EasyPower Webinars deliver expert training on electrical power systems, covering arc flash, harmonics, grounding, overcurrent coordination, NEC and IEEE 1584 updates, with on-demand videos and email certificates for continuing education credits.

 

Key Points

EasyPower Webinars are expert-led power systems trainings with CE credit details and on-demand access.

✅ Arc flash, harmonics, and grounding fundamentals with live demos

✅ NEC 2020 and IEEE 1584 updates for compliance and safety

✅ CE credits with post-webinar email documentation

 

We've ramped up webinars to help your learning while you might be working from home, and similar live online fire alarm training options are widely available. As usual, you will receive an email the day after the webinar which will include the details most states need for you to earn continuing education credit, amid a broader grid warning during the pandemic from regulators.

EasyPower's well known webinar series covers a variety of topics regarding electrical power systems. Below you will see our webinars scheduled through the next few months, reflecting ongoing sector investments in the future of work across the electricity industry.

In addition, there are more than 150 videos that were recorded from past webinars in our EasyPower Video Library. The topics of these videos include arc flash training, short circuit, protective device coordination, power flow, harmonics, DC systems, grounding, and many others.

 

AUGUST WEBINARS

 

Active & Passive Harmonic Filters in EasyPower

By Tao Yang, Ph.D, PE, at EasyPower

In this webinar, Tao Yang, Ph.D, PE, from EasyPower provides a refresher course on fundamental concepts of harmonics study and the EasyPower Harmonics module. He describes the two major harmonics filters, both active and passive, and their implementation in the EasyPower Harmonics module. As passive filters are widely used in the industry, he covers four kinds of typical passive filters: notch, first order, second order, and C-type filters, including their implementation in EasyPower and their tuning processes. He uses live examples to demonstrate the modeling and parameter tuning for both active and passive filters using simple EasyPower cases.

Date: Thursday, August 13, 2020
Time: 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM Pacific
Register: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1359680676441129997

 

Cracking the Code for Arc-Flash Mitigation

By Mark Pollock at Littelfuse

The National Electrical Code (NEC) outlines several arc-flash mitigation options, aligning with broader arc flash training insights across the industry. This presentation, given by Mark Pollock at Littelfuse, reviews the arc-flash mitigation options from the NEC 2020, and some updates to the IEEE 1584-2018 standard. In addition to understanding the codes, we’ll discuss the return on investment for the various mitigation options and the importance of arc-flash assessments in your facility. 

Date: Thursday, August 20, 2020
Time: 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM Pacific
Register: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/107117029724512527

 

Ground Fault Coordination in EasyPower

By Jim Chastain, Support Engineer at EasyPower

The PowerProtector™ module in EasyPower simplifies the process of coordinating protective devices. In this refresher webinar, Jim Chastain demonstrates the procedure to coordinate ground fault protection for both resistance-grounded and hard-grounded systems.

Date: Tuesday, August 25, 2020
Time: 8:00 AM - 8:30 AM Pacific
Register: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/561389055546364429

 

SEPTEMBER WEBINARS

 

Overcurrent Coordination and Protection Basics

By James Onsager and Namrata Asarpota at S&C Electric

Coordination of overcurrent protective devices is necessary to limit interruptions to the smallest portion of the power system in the event of an overload or short-circuit. This webinar, given by James Onsager and Namrata Asarpota at S&C Electric, goes over the basics of Time Current Curves (TCCs), types of overcurrent protective devices (for both low-voltage and medium-voltage systems), and how to coordinate between them. Protection of common types of equipment such as transformers, cables and motors according the National Electrical Code (NFPA 70, NEC) is also discussed, alongside related fire alarm training online resources available to practitioners. 

Date: Thursday, September 3, 2020
Time: 10:00 AM -11:00 AM Pacific
Register: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6345420550218629133

 

Static Discharge Awareness and Explosion Protection

By Christopher Coughlan at Newson Gale, a Hoerbiger Safety Solutions Company

For any person responsible for the safety of employees, colleagues, plant equipment and plant property, one of the most potentially confusing aspects of providing a safe operating environment is understanding and safeguarding again static discharge, with industry leadership in worker safety highlighting best practices. In this webinar given by Christopher Coughlan at Newson Gale, a Hoerbiger Safety Solutions Company, he discusses how to determine if your site’s manufacturing or handling processes have the potential to discharge static sparks into flammable or combustible atmospheres. 

Date: Thursday, September 17, 2020
Time: 10:00 AM -11:00 AM Pacific
Register: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7225333317600833296

 

XGSLab New Feature - Seasonal Analysis For Grounding Systems

By David Lewis, P.E, Electrical Engineer, Grounding and Power Systems at EasyPower

In regions where the frost depth meets or exceeds the depth of a grounding system, the grounding system’s performance may be dramatically reduced, possibly creating hazardous conditions. The latest XGSLab release 9.5 provides a powerful new tool to analyze grounding system performance that considers the seasonal variation in soil characteristics. In this webinar, given by David Lewis, an electrical engineer at EasyPower, we describe the effect that seasonal variation can have on a grounding system and we step you through the use of the Seasonal Analysis tool. 

Date: Tuesday, September 25, 2020
Time: 8:00 AM -8:30 AM Pacific
Register: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6805488101896212751

 

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European gas prices fall to pre-Ukraine war level

European Gas Prices hit pre-invasion lows as LNG inflows, EU storage gains, and softer oil markets ease the energy crisis, while recession risks, windfall taxes, and ExxonMobil's challenge shape demand and policy.

 

Key Points

European gas prices reflect supply, LNG inflows, storage, and policy, shaping energy costs for households and industry.

✅ Month-ahead hit €76.78/MWh, rebounding to €85.50/MWh.

✅ EU storage 83.2% filled; autumn peak exceeded 95%.

✅ Demand tempered by recession risks; LNG inflows offset Russian cuts.

 

European gas prices have dipped to a level last seen before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February, after warmer weather across the continent eased concerns over shortages and as coal demand dropped across Europe during winter.

The month-ahead European gas future contract dropped as low as €76.78 per megawatt hour on Wednesday, the lowest level in 10 months, amid EU talks on gas price cap strategies that could shape markets, before closing higher at €83.70, according to Refinitiv, a data company.

The invasion roiled global energy markets, serving as a wake-up call to ditch fossil fuels for policymakers, and forced European countries, including industrial powerhouse Germany, to look for alternative suppliers to those funding the Kremlin. Europe had continued to rely on Russian gas even after its 2014 annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine.

On Tuesday 83.2% of EU gas storage was filled, data from industry body Gas Infrastructure Europe showed. The EU in May set a target of filling 80% of its gas storage capacity by the start of November to prepare for winter, and weighed emergency electricity measures to curb prices as needed. It hit that target in August, and by mid-November it had peaked at more than 95%.

Gas prices bounced further off the 10-month low on Thursday to reach €85.50 per megawatt hour.

Europe has several months of domestic heating demand ahead, and some industry bosses believe energy shortages could also be a problem next winter, with a worst energy nightmare still possible if supplies tighten. However, traders have also had to weigh the effects of recessions expected in several big European economies, which could dent energy demand.

UK gas prices have also dropped back from their highs earlier this year, and forecasts suggest UK energy bills to drop in April. The day-ahead gas price closed at 155p per therm on Wednesday, compared with 200p/therm at the start of 2022, and more than 500p/therm in August.

Europe’s response to the prospect of gas shortages also included campaigns to reduce energy use – a strategy belatedly adopted by the UK – and windfall taxes on energy companies to help raise revenues for governments, many of which have started expensive subsidies to cushion the impact of high energy prices for households and consumers. Energy companies have enjoyed huge profits at the expense of businesses and households this year, as EU inflation accelerated, but costs remained much the same.

However, the US oil company ExxonMobil on Wednesday launched a legal challenge against EU plans for a windfall tax on oil companies, according to filings by its German and Dutch subsidiaries at the European general court in Luxembourg. ExxonMobil argued that the windfall tax would be “counter-productive” because it said it would result in lower investment in fossil fuel extraction, and that the EU did not have the legal jurisdiction to impose it.

ExxonMobil’s move has prompted anger among European politicians. A message posted on the Twitter account of Paolo Gentiloni, the EU’s commissioner for the economy, on Thursday stated: “Fairness and solidarity, even for corporate giants. #Exxon.”

Oil prices are significantly lower than they were before the start of Russia’s invasion, and only marginally above where they were at the start of 2022. Brent crude oil futures traded at $100 a barrel on 28 February, but were at $81.84 on Thursday.

Oil prices dropped by 1.7% on Thursday. Prices had risen from 12-month lows in early December as traders hoped for increased demand from China after it relaxed its coronavirus restrictions. However, Covid-19 infection numbers are thought to have surged in the country, prompting the US to require travellers from China to show a negative test for the disease and tempering expectations for a rapid increase in oil demand.

 

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Could selling renewable energy be Alberta's next big thing?

Alberta Renewable Energy Procurement is surging as corporate PPAs drive wind and solar growth, with the Pembina Institute and the Business Renewables Centre linking buyers and developers in Alberta's energy-only market near Medicine Hat.

 

Key Points

A market-led approach where corporations use PPAs to secure wind and solar power from Alberta projects.

✅ Corporate PPAs de-risk projects and lock in clean power.

✅ Alberta's energy-only market enables efficient transactions.

✅ Skilled workforce supports wind, solar, legal, and financing.

 

Alberta has big potential when it comes to providing renewable energy, advocates say.

The Pembina Institute says the practice of corporations committing to buy renewable energy is just taking off in Canada, and Alberta has both the energy sector and the skilled workforce to provide it.

Earlier this week, a company owned by U.S. billionaire Warren Buffett announced a large new wind farm near Medicine Hat. It has a buyer for the power.

Sara Hastings-Simon, director of the Pembina's Business Renewables Centre, says this is part of a trend.

"We're talking about the practice of corporate institutions purchasing renewables to meet their own electricity demand. And this is a really well-established driver for renewable energy development in the U.S.," she said. "You may be hearing headlines like Google, Apple and others that are buying renewables and we're helping to bring this practice to Canada."

The Business Renewables Centre (BRC) is a not-for-profit working to accelerate corporate and institutional procurement of renewables in Canada. The group held its inaugural all members event in Calgary on Thursday.

Hastings-Simon says shareholders and investors are encouraging more use of solar and wind power in Canada.

"We have over 10 gigawatts of renewable energy projects in the pipeline that are ready for buyers. And so we see multinational companies coming to Canada to start to procure here, as well as Canadian companies understanding that this is an opportunity for them as well," Hastings-Simon said.

"It's really exciting to see business interests driving renewable energy development."

Sara Hastings-Simon is the director of the Pembina Institute's Business Renewables Centre, which seeks to build up Alberta's renewable energy industry. (Mike Symington/CBC)

Hastings-Simon says renewable procurement could help dispel the narrative that it's all about oil and gas in Alberta by highlighting Alberta as a powerhouse for both green energy and fossil fuels in Canada.

She says the practice started with a handful of tech companies in the U.S. and has become more mainstream there, even as Canada remains a solar laggard to some observers, with more and more large companies wanting to reduce their energy footprint.

He says his U.S.-based organization has been working for years to speed up and expand the renewables market for companies that want to address their own sustainability.

"We try and make that a little bit easier by building out a community that can help to really reinforce each other, share lessons learned, best practices and then drive for transactions to have actual material impact worldwide," he said.

"We're really excited to be working with the Pembina group and the BRC Canada team," he said. "We feel our best value for this is just to support them with our experiences and lessons. They've been basically doing the same thing for many years helping to grow and grow and cultivate the market."

 

Porter says Alberta's market is more than ready.

"There are some precedent transactions already so people know it can work," he said. "The way Alberta is structured, being an energy-only market is useful. And I think that there is a strong ecosystem of both budget developers and service providers … that can really help these transactions get over the line."

As procurement ramps up, Hastings-Simon says Alberta already has the skilled workers needed to fill renewable energy jobs across the province.

"We have a lot of the knowledge that's needed, and that's everybody from the construction down through the legal and financing — all those pieces of building big projects," she said. "We are seeing increasing interest in people that want to become involved in that industry, and so there is increasing demand for training in things like solar power installation and wind technicians."

Hastings-Simon predicts an increase in demand for both the services and the workers.

"As this industry ramps up, we're going to need to have more workers that are active in those areas," she said. "So I think we can see a very nice increase — both the demand and the number of folks that are able to work in this field."

 

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The biggest problem facing the U.S. electric grid isn't demand. It's climate change

US power grid modernization addresses aging infrastructure, climate resilience, extreme weather, EV demand, and clean energy integration, using AI, transmission upgrades, and resilient substations to improve reliability, reduce outages, and enable rapid recovery.

 

Key Points

US power grid modernization strengthens infrastructure for resilience, reliability, and clean energy under rising demand.

✅ Hardening substations, lines, and transformers against extreme weather

✅ Integrating EV load, DERs, and renewables into transmission and distribution

✅ Using AI, sensors, and automation to cut outages and speed restoration

 

The power grid in the U.S. is aging and already struggling to meet current demand, with dangerous vulnerabilities documented across the system today. It faces a future with more people — people who drive more electric cars and heat homes with more electric furnaces.

Alice Hill says that's not even the biggest problem the country's electricity infrastructure faces.

"Everything that we've built, including the electric grid, assumed a stable climate," she says. "It looked to the extremes of the past — how high the seas got, how high the winds got, the heat."

Hill is an energy and environment expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. She served on the National Security Council staff during the Obama administration, where she led the effort to develop climate resilience. She says past weather extremes can no longer safely guide future electricity planning.

"It's a little like we're building the plane as we're flying because the climate is changing right now, and it's picking up speed as it changes," Hill says.

The newly passed infrastructure package dedicates billions of dollars to updating the energy grid with smarter electricity infrastructure programs that aim to modernize operations. Hill says utility companies and public planners around the country are already having to adapt. She points to the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

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"They thought the maximum would be 12 feet," she says. "That storm surge came in close to 14 feet. It overcame the barriers at the tip of Manhattan, and then the electric grid — a substation blew out. The city that never sleeps [was] plunged into darkness."

Hill noted that Con Edison, the utility company providing New York City with energy, responded with upgrades to its grid: It buried power lines, introduced artificial intelligence, upgraded software to detect failures. But upgrading the way humans assess risk, she says, is harder.

"What happens is that some people tend to think, well, that last storm that we just had, that'll be the worst, right?" Hill says. "No, there is a worse storm ahead. And then, probably, that will be exceeded."

In 2021, the U.S. saw electricity outages for millions of people as a result of historic winter storms in Texas, a heatwave in the Pacific Northwest and Hurricane Ida along the Gulf Coast. Climate change will only make extreme weather more likely and more intense, driving longer, more frequent outages for utilities and customers.

In the West, California's grid reliability remains under scrutiny as the state navigates an ambitious clean energy shift.

And that has forced utility companies and other entities to grapple with the question: How can we prepare for blackouts and broader system stress we've never experienced before?

A modern power station in Maryland is built for the future
In the town of Edgemere, Md., the Fitzell substation of Baltimore Gas and Electric delivers electricity to homes and businesses. The facility is only a year or so old, and Laura Wright, the director of transmission and substation engineering, says it's been built with the future in mind.

She says the four transformers on site are plenty for now. And to counter the anticipated demand of population growth and a future reliance on electric cars, she says the substation has been designed for an easy upgrade.

"They're not projecting to need that additional capacity for a while, but we designed this station to be able to take that transformer out and put in a larger one," Wright says.

Slopes were designed to insulate the substation from sea level rise. And should the substation experience something like a catastrophic flooding event or deadly tornado, there's a plan for that too.

"If we were to have a failure of a transformer," Wright says, "we can bring one of those mobile transformers into the substation, park it in the substation, connect it up in place of that transformer. And we can do that in two to three days."

The Fitzell substation is a new, modern complex. Older sites can be knocked down for weeks.

That raises the question: Can the amount of money dedicated to the power grid in the new infrastructure legislation actually make meaningful changes to the energy system across the country, where studies find more blackouts than other developed nations persist?

"The infrastructure bill, unfortunately, only scratches the surface," says Daniel Cohan, an associate professor in civil and environmental engineering at Rice University.

Though the White House says $65 billion of the infrastructure legislation is dedicated to power infrastructure, a World Resources Institute analysis noted that only $27 billion would go to the electric grid — a figure that Cohan also used.

"If you drill down into how much is there for the power grid, it's only about $27 billion or so, and mainly for research and demonstration projects and some ways to get started," he says.

Cohan, who is also author of the forthcoming book Confronting Climate Gridlock, says federal taxpayer dollars can be significant but that most of the needed investment will eventually come from the private sector — from utility companies and other businesses spending "many hundreds of billions of dollars per decade," even as grid modernization affordability remains a concern. He also says the infrastructure package "misses some opportunities" to initiate that private-sector action through mandates.

"It's better than nothing, but, you know, with such momentous challenges that we face, this isn't really up to the magnitude of that challenge," Cohan says.

Cohan argues that thinking big, and not incrementally, can pay off. He believes a complete transition from fossil fuels to clean energy by 2035 is realistic and attainable — a goal the Biden administration holds — and could lead to more than just environmental benefit.

"It also can lead to more affordable electricity, more reliable electricity, a power supply that bounces back more quickly when these extreme events come through," he says. "So we're not just doing it to be green or to protect our air and climate, but we can actually have a much better, more reliable energy supply in the future."

 

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COVID-19 pandemic zaps electricity usage in Ontario as people stay home

Ontario Electricity Demand 2020 shows a rare decline amid COVID-19, with higher residential peak load, lower commercial usage, hot-weather air conditioning, nuclear baseload constraints, and smart meter data shaping grid operations and forecasting.

 

Key Points

It refers to 2020 power use in Ontario: overall demand fell, while residential peaks rose and commercial loads dropped.

✅ Peak load shifted to homes; commercial usage declined.

✅ Hot summers raised peaks; overall annual demand still fell.

✅ Smart meters aid forecasting; grid must balance nuclear baseload.

 

Demand for electricity in Ontario last year fell to levels rarely seen in decades amid shifts in usage patterns caused by pandemic measures, with Ottawa’s electricity consumption dropping notably, new data show.

The decline came despite a hot summer that had people rushing to crank up the air conditioning at home, the province’s power management agency said, even as the government offered electricity relief to families and small businesses.

“We do have this very interesting shift in who’s using the energy,” said Chuck Farmer, senior director of power system planning with the Independent Electricity System Operator.

“Residential users are using more electricity at home than we thought they would and the commercial consumers are using less.”

The onset of the pandemic last March prompted stay-home orders, businesses to close, and a shuttering of live sports, entertainment and dining out. Social distancing and ongoing restrictions, even as the first wave ebbed and some measures eased, nevertheless persisted and kept many people home as summer took hold and morphed into winter, while the province prepared to extend disconnect moratoriums for residential customers.

System operator data show peak electricity demand rose during a hot summer spell to 24,446 megawatts _ the highest since 2013. Overall, however, Ontario electricity demand last year was the second lowest since 1988, the operator said.

In all, Ontario used 132.2 terawatt-hours of power in 2020, a decline of 2.9 per cent from 2019.

With more people at home during the lockdown, winter residential peak demand has climbed 13 per cent above pre-pandemic levels, even as Hydro One made no cut in peak rates for self-isolating customers, while summer peak usage was up 19 per cent.

“The peaks are getting higher than we would normally expect them to be and this was caused by residential customers _ they’re home when you wouldn’t expect them to be home,” Farmer said.

Matching supply and demand _ a key task of the system operator _ is critical to meeting peak usage and ensuring a stable grid, and the operator has contingency plans with some key staff locked down at work sites to maintain operations during COVID-19, because electricity cannot be stored easily. It is also difficult to quickly raise or lower the output from nuclear-powered generators, which account for the bulk of electricity in the province, as demand fluctuates.

READ MORE: Ontario government extends off-peak electricity rates to Feb. 22

Life patterns have long impacted overall usage. For example, demand used to typically climb around 10 p.m. each night as people tuned into national television newscasts. Livestreaming has flattened that bump, while more energy-efficient lighting led to a drop in provincial demand over the holiday season.

The pandemic has now prompted further intra-day shifts in usage. Fewer people are getting up in the morning and powering up at home before powering down and rushing off to work or school. The summer saw more use of air conditioners earlier than normal after-work patterns.

Weather has always been a key driver of demand for power, accounting for example for the record 27,005 megawatts of usage set on a brutally hot Aug. 1, 2006. Similarly, a mild winter and summer led to an overall power usage drop in 2017.

Still, the profound social changes prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic _ and whether some will be permanent _ have complicated demand forecasting.

“Work patterns used to be much more predictable,” the agency said. “The pandemic has now added another element of variability for electricity demand forecasting.”

Some employees sent home to work have returned to their offices and other workplaces, and many others are likely do so once the pandemic recedes. However, some larger companies have indicated that working from home will be long term.

“Companies like Facebook and Shopify have already stated their intention to make work from home a more permanent arrangement,” the operator said. “This is something our near-term forecasters would take into account when preparing for daily operation of the grid.”

Aggregated data from better smart meters, which show power usage throughout the day, is one method of improving forecasting accuracy, the operator said.

 

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Analysis: Why is Ontario’s electricity about to get dirtier?

Ontario electricity emissions forecast highlights rising grid CO2 as nuclear refurbishments and the Pickering closure drive more natural gas, limited renewables, and delayed Quebec hydro imports, pending advances in storage and transmission upgrades.

 

Key Points

A projection that Ontario's grid CO2 will rise as nuclear units refurbish or retire, increasing natural gas use.

✅ Nuclear refurbs and Pickering shutdown cut zero-carbon baseload

✅ Gas plants fill capacity gaps, boosting GHG emissions

✅ Quebec hydro imports face cost, transmission, and timing limits

 

Ontario's energy grid is among the cleanest in North America — but the province’s nuclear plans mean that some of our progress will be reversed over the next decade.

What was once Canada’s largest single source of greenhouse-gas emissions is now a solar-power plant. The Nanticoke Generating Station, a coal-fired power plant in Haldimand County, was decommissioned in stages from 2010 to 2013 — and even before the last remaining structures were demolished earlier this year, Ontario Power Generation had replaced its nearly 4,000 megawatts with a 44-megawatt solar project in partnership with the Six Nations of the Grand River Development Corporation and the Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation.

But neither wind nor solar has done much to replace coal in Ontario’s hydro sector, a sign of how slowly Ontario is embracing clean power in practice across the province. At Nanticoke, the solar panels make up less than 2 per cent of the capacity that once flowed out to southern Ontario over high-voltage transmission lines. In cleaning up its electricity system, the province relied primarily on nuclear power — but the need to extend the nuclear system’s lifespan will end up making our electricity dirtier again.

“We’ve made some pretty great strides since 2005 with the fuel mix,” says Terry Young, vice-president of corporate communications at the Independent Electricity System Operator, the provincial agency whose job it is to balance supply and demand in Ontario’s electricity sector. “There have been big changes since 2005, but, yes, we will see an increase because of the closure of Pickering and the refurbs coming.”

“The refurbs” is industry-speak for the major rebuilds of both the Darlington and Bruce nuclear-power stations. The two are both in the early stages of major overhauls intended to extend their operating lives into the 2060s: in the coming years, they’ll be taken offline and rebuilt. (The Pickering nuclear plant will not be refurbished and will shut down in 2024.)

The catch is that, as the province loses its nuclear capacity in increments, Ontario will be short of electricity in the coming years and the IESO will need to find capacity elsewhere to make sure the lights stay on. And that could mean burning a lot more natural gas — and creating more greenhouse-gas emissions.

According to the IESO’s planning assumptions, electricity will be responsible for 11 megatonnes of greenhouse-gas emissions annually by 2035 (last year, it was three megatonnes). That’s the “reference case” scenario: if conservation and efficiency policies shave off some electricity demand, we could get it down to something like nine megatonnes. But if demand is higher than expected, it could be as high as 13 megatonnes — more than quadruple Ontario’s 2018 emissions.

Even in the worst-case scenario, the province’s emissions from electricity would still be less than half of what they were in 2005, before the province began phasing out its coal generation. But it’s still a reversal of a trend that both Liberals and Progressive Conservatives have boasted about — the Liberals to justify their energy policies, the PCs to justify their hostility to a federal carbon tax.

Young emphasized that technology can change and that the IESO’s planning assumptions are just that: projections based on the information available today. A revolution in electricity storage could make it possible to store the province’s cleaner power sources overnight for use during the day, but that’s still only in the realm of speculation — and the natural-gas infrastructure exists in the real world, today.

Ontario Power Generation — the Crown corporation that operates many of the province’s power plants, including Pickering and Darlington — recently bought four gas plants, two of them outright (two it already owned in part). All were nearly complete or already operational, so the purchase itself won’t change the province’s emissions prospects. Rather, OPG is simply looking to maintain its share of the electricity market after the Pickering shutdown.

“It will allow us to maintain our scale, with the upcoming end of Pickering’s commercial operations, so that we can continue our role as the driver of Ontario’s lower carbon future,” Neal Kelly, OPG’s director of media, issues, and management, told TVO.org via email. “Further, there is a growing need for flexible gas fired generation to support intermittent wind and solar generation.”

The shift to more gas-fired generation has been coming for a while, and critics say that Ontario has missed an opportunity to replace the lost Pickering capacity with something cleaner. MPP Mike Schreiner, leader of the Green party, has argued for years that Ontario should have pursued an agreement with Quebec to import clean hydroelectricity.

“To me, it’s a cost-effective solution, and it’s a zero-emissions solution,” Schreiner says. “Regardless of your position on sources of electricity, I think everyone could agree that waterpower from Quebec is going to be less expensive.”

Quebec is eager to sell Ontario its surplus hydro power, but not everyone agrees that importing power would be cheaper. A study published by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce (and commissioned by Ontario Power Generation) calls the claim a “myth” and states that upgrading electric-transmission wires between Ontario and Quebec would cost $1.2 billion and take 10 years, while some estimates suggest fully greening Ontario's grid would cost far more overall.

With Quebec imports seemingly a non-starter and major changes to Ontario’s nuclear fleet already underway, there’s only one path left for this province’s greenhouse-gas emissions: upwards.

 

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