Trends in Electricity Prices in Europe: Expect More Volatility


Trends in Electricity Prices

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EU Energy Outlook 2050 projects volatile electricity prices as wind, solar PV, and hydropower dominate capacity; natural gas supports dispatchable supply, CO2 prices rise, and e-mobility, storage, and national policy reforms reshape EU power markets.

 

Key Points

A modeled scenario of EU-28 power markets to 2050, analyzing capacity, prices, and policy impacts across technologies.

✅ Wind and solar dominate capacity; gas remains key dispatchable.

✅ CO2 costs and fuel trends drive price volatility and extremes.

✅ Storage, e-mobility, and policy reforms reshape national markets.

 

European electricity markets are constantly changing. Revisions of regulations and new laws, e.g. the Electricity Market Act in Germany, affect business decisions and market trends, reflecting Europe's push for electrification across sectors. In our EU Energy Outlook 2050 we provide non-weighted average values of a potential scenario for EU-28 countries (including Norway and Switzerland), based on the fundamental power market model developed by Energy Brainpool.

Power2Sim is a software tool that simulates the hourly electricity prices until the year 2050 for all countries of the European Union along with Norway and Switzerland. Most assumptions for the scenario are based on the IEA. The assumptions are adapted by Energy Brainpool according to national targets for Germany or for France. Results for individual countries vary strongly in some cases. For sound market assessments, solid modeling of individual national markets, including sensitivity analyses, is indispensable.
Supply side: Installed generating capacities in EU-28


 

Figure 1: Gross generation capacities in GW, source: Energy Brainpool

Generation capacity will be dominated by fluctuating renewable energies, in particular wind, solar PV and hydropower, as can be seen in figure 1. Wind energy is expected to expand to an estimated 30 per cent of overall generation capacity by 2050. With regard to dispatchable fossil fuel capacities, primarily natural gas power plants are planned to be built in Europe. The capacity of coal-fired power plants will fall to 4 per cent of total capacity by 2050. All in all, conventional dispatchable generation capacity will decline from 50 per cent to 30 per cent. Fluctuating capacity will dominate, which in turn will lead to more volatile prices.

  1. Demand side: coverage of the demand by energy sources in EU-28


 

Figure 2: Gross electricity production of generation technologies in TWh, source: Energy Brainpool

Electricity generation is expected to increase by 18 per cent till 2050 as a result of higher demand caused by increased electrification of the heat and transport sectors, as more drivers go electric across markets. While the production from coal-fired power plants will decline substantially, the production from natural gas fired power plants will double. In 2050, variable renewable energies will generate some 36 per cent of electricity while over 44 per cent will be produced by dispatchable conventional power plants. Remaining electricity production will come from renewable energy technologies such as biomass power plants.

  1. Commodity price development


 

Figure 3: Commodity prices (real EUR2015), source: Energy Brainpool

Commodity prices up to 2020 are based on the prices on the futures markets. The expected price trend of commodities between 2020 to 2050 in our model follows the 450ppm (2° C) scenario of the IEA’s “World Energy Outlook 2016”. The 2° C scenario is primarily achieved by a sharp increase of EUA prices (i.e. CO2 prices in the EU Emission Trading System). As high CO2 prices will lead to lower demand for fossil fuels in the power sector, prices of natural gas and hard coal will remain at a relatively constant level.

  1. Simulated annual power prices EU 28


 

Figure 4: Power prices (real EUR2015) and deviation range in national EU-28 markets, source: Energy Brainpool

Power prices until 2020 are influenced strongly by low prices for commodities on the futures markets. The development of electricity prices from 2020 to 2030 is influenced by increasing gas prices (due to higher demand, as more carbon-intensive generation is being shut-down) and CO₂-certificate prices, with U.S. DOE EV demand analysis illustrating how transport electrification can add load. From 2040 onwards electricity prices are expected to remain on a relative constant level despite rising prices for CO₂. The reason is that the high contribution of wind and solar power will increase the periods of low and even negative electricity prices. As we indicated above, these are average prices – they may vary considerably in individual countries.

  1. Average sales values and sales volumes for wind in EU-28


 

Figure 5: Sales values (real EUR2015) and volumes wind EU-28, source: Energy Brainpool

The sales value of wind energy will rise till 2040 and thereafter remain at a high level despite increasing installed capacities and simultaneous cannibalisation effects. Sales volumes (share of annual generation at positive spot market prices) will decrease only slightly. The few hours with extreme electricity prices benefit wind power plants which generate positive revenues in these hours.

Sales value is the average weighted price a technology (solar or wind) can achieve in the spot market in all hours during which the price is higher than or equal to 0 EUR/MWh. Sales value represents a more realistic picture of the revenue of renewable energy sources compared to other indices, because it discounts periods in which prices are zero or negative and the sources may be switched off.

  1. Average sales values and sales volumes for solar in EU-28


 

Figure 6: Sales value (real EUR2015) and volumes solar in EU-28, source: Energy Brainpool

The sales value of solar energy will rise till 2040 and remain at a high level thereafter, although still below the level of wind energy. This is because of the strong simultaneousness effect of solar power. This results in strong price declines at times of high solar feed-in. The sales volumes on EU average will only decrease slightly. However, in some countries the decline is much steeper.

  1. Extreme prices EU-28


 

Figure 7: Number of extreme prices, source: Energy Brainpool

Due to the high share of fluctuating generation capacities, electricity prices will become more volatile. Moreover, extremely high and extremely low prices will occur. Extreme prices are electricity prices equal to/below 0 EUR/MWh and those above 100 EUR/MWh. The anticipated ratio between the two extremes will create new opportunities for market newcomers and new technologies, e.g. storage systems. Extreme prices can be anticipated in Europe from 2026 on.

  1. E-mobility in the EU-28

 


 

Figure 8: Demand of e-mobility in EU-28, source: Energy Brainpool

The future development of e-mobility is a decisive factor for the European and national targets in terms of greenhouse gas emission reductions. If the decarbonisation of the transport sector will genuinely be implemented through e-mobility technologies, electricity demand from EVs will drastically increase. A share of 100 per cent e-mobility in the private transport sector in the EU28 by 2050 will result in an additional electricity demand of around 830 TWh/a, around a quarter of current total European electricity demand.

The development of e-mobility was not taken into account in the results presented above. If it were taken into account however, the increased demand from e-mobility would lead to higher electricity prices. This in turn would incentivise further investments in new generating capacities to cover for surplus demand. If climate goals are to be achieved, e-mobility needs to be powered by carbon free generating technologies. This would lead to a different technology mix than seen in Figure 1.

 

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U.S. Nonprofit Invests $250M in Electric Trucks for California Ports

California Ports Electric Truck Leasing accelerates zero-emission logistics, cutting diesel pollution at Los Angeles and Long Beach. A $250 million nonprofit plan funds heavy-duty EVs and charging infrastructure to improve air quality and community health.

 

Key Points

A nonprofit's $250M plan to lease EV trucks at LA/Long Beach ports to cut diesel emissions and improve air quality.

✅ $250M lease program for heavy-duty EVs at LA/Long Beach ports

✅ Cuts diesel emissions; improves air quality in nearby communities

✅ Requires robust charging infrastructure and OEM partnerships

 

In a significant move towards sustainable transportation, a prominent U.S. nonprofit has announced plans to invest $250 million in leasing electric trucks for operations at California ports. This initiative aims to reduce air pollution and promote greener logistics, responding to the urgent need for environmentally friendly solutions in the transportation sector.

Addressing Environmental Concerns

California’s ports, particularly the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach, are among the busiest in the United States. However, they also contribute significantly to air pollution due to the heavy reliance on diesel trucks for cargo transport. These ports are essential for the economy, facilitating trade and commerce, but the environmental toll is considerable. Diesel emissions are linked to respiratory issues and other health problems in nearby communities, which often bear the brunt of pollution.

The nonprofit's investment in electric trucks is a critical step towards mitigating these environmental challenges. By transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs), the project aims to significantly cut emissions from port operations, contributing to California's broader goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality.

The Scale of the Initiative

This ambitious initiative involves leasing a fleet of electric trucks that will operate within the ports and surrounding areas. The $250 million investment is expected to facilitate the acquisition of hundreds of electric vehicles, which will replace conventional diesel trucks used for cargo transport. This fleet will help demonstrate the viability and effectiveness of electric trucks in heavy-duty applications, paving the way for broader adoption.

The plan includes partnerships with established electric truck manufacturers, such as the Volvo VNR Electric platform, and local logistics companies to ensure seamless integration of these vehicles into existing operations. By collaborating with industry leaders, the initiative seeks to establish a model that can be replicated in other major logistics hubs across the country.

Economic and Community Benefits

The introduction of electric trucks is expected to yield multiple benefits, not only in terms of environmental impact but also economically. As these trucks begin operations, and as other fleets adopt electric mail trucks, they will create jobs within the green technology sector, from manufacturing to maintenance and charging infrastructure development. The project is anticipated to stimulate local economies, providing new opportunities in communities that have historically been disadvantaged by pollution.

Moreover, the initiative is poised to enhance public health. By reducing diesel emissions, the nonprofit aims to improve air quality for residents living near the ports, and emerging research links EV adoption to fewer asthma-related ER visits in local communities. This could lead to decreased healthcare costs associated with pollution-related illnesses, benefiting both the community and the healthcare system.

Challenges Ahead

While the initiative is promising, challenges remain. The successful implementation of electric trucks at scale requires a robust charging infrastructure capable of supporting the significant power needs of a large fleet. Additionally, the transition from diesel to electric vehicles involves significant upfront costs, even with leasing arrangements. Ensuring that logistics companies can manage these costs effectively will be crucial for the project's success.

Furthermore, electric trucks currently face limitations in terms of range and payload capacity compared to their diesel counterparts. Continued advancements in battery technology and infrastructure development will be necessary to fully realize the potential of electric vehicles in heavy-duty applications.

The Bigger Picture

This investment in electric trucks aligns with broader national and global efforts to combat climate change. As governments and organizations commit to reducing carbon emissions, initiatives like this one represent crucial steps toward achieving sustainability goals, and ports worldwide are also piloting complementary technologies like hydrogen-powered cranes to decarbonize cargo handling.

California has set ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, including a mandate for all new trucks to be zero-emission by 2045. The nonprofit’s investment not only supports these goals, amid ongoing debates over funding priorities in the state, but also serves as a pilot program that could inform future policies and investments in clean transportation.

The $250 million investment in electric trucks for California ports marks a significant milestone in the push for sustainable transportation solutions. By addressing the urgent need for cleaner logistics, this initiative stands to benefit the environment, public health, and the economy. As the project unfolds, it will be closely watched as a potential model for similar efforts across the country and beyond, with developments such as the all-electric berth at London Gateway illustrating parallel advances, highlighting the critical intersection of innovation, sustainability, and community well-being in the modern logistics landscape.

 

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Electricity distributors warn excess solar power in network could cause blackouts, damage infrastructure

Australian Rooftop Solar Grid Constraints are driving debates over voltage rise, export limits, inverter curtailment, DER integration, and network reliability, amid concerns about localized blackouts, infrastructure protection, tariff reform, and battery storage adoption.

 

Key Points

Limits on solar exports to curb voltage rise, protect equipment, and keep the distribution grid reliable.

✅ Voltage rise triggers transformer protection and local outages.

✅ Export limits and smart inverter curtailment manage midday backfeed.

✅ Tariff reform and DER orchestration defer costly network upgrades.

 

With almost 1.8 million Australian homes and businesses relying on power from rooftop solar panels, there is a fight brewing over the impact of solar energy on the national electricity grid.

Electricity distributors are warning that as solar uptake continues to increase, there is a risk excess solar power could flow into the network, elevating power outage risks, causing blackouts and damaging infrastructure.

But is it the network businesses that are actually at risk, as customers turn away from centrally produced electricity?

This is what three different parties have to say:

Andrew Dillon of the network industry peak body, Energy Networks Australia (ENA), told 7.30 the way customers are charged for electricity has to change, or expensive grid upgrades to poles and wires will be needed to keep solar customers on the grid.

"The engineering reality is once we get too much solar in a certain space it does start to cause technical issues," he said.

"If there is too much energy coming back up the system in the middle of the day, it can cause frequency voltage disturbances in the system, which can lead to transformers tripping off to protect themselves from being damaged and that will cause localised blackouts.

"There are pockets of the grid already where we have significant penetration and we are starting to see technical issues."

However, he acknowledges that excess solar power has yet to cause any blackouts, or damage electricity infrastructure.

"I don't buy that at all," he said.

"It can be that in some suburbs or parts of suburbs a high penetration of solar on the point of use can raise voltage, these issues generally can be dealt with quickly.

"The critical issue is think where you are getting that perspective from. It is from an industry whose underlying market is threatened by customers doing it for themselves through peer-to-peer energy models. So, think with some critical insight to these claims."

He said when too many people rely on solar it threatens the very business model of the companies that own Australia's poles and wires.

"When the customers use the network less to buy centrally produced electricity, they ship less product," he said.

"When they ship less product, their underlying business is undermined, they need to charge more to the customers left and that leads to what has been called a death spiral.

"We are seeing rapid reductions in consumption at the point of use per household."

But Mr Dillon denies the distributors are acting out of self-interest.

"I absolutely reject that claim," he said.

"[What] we, as networks, have an interest in is running a safe network, running a reliable network, enabling the transition to a low carbon future and doing all that while keeping costs down as much as possible."

Solar installers say the networks are holding back business

Around Australia the poles and wires companies can decide which solar systems can connect to the grid.

Small systems can connect automatically, but in some areas, those wanting a larger system can find themselves caught up in red tape.

The vice-president of the Australian Solar Council, Glen Morris, said these limitations were holding back solar installation businesses and preventing the take-up of new battery storage technology.

"If you've already got a five kilowatt system, your house is full as far as the network is concerned," Mr Morris said.

"You go to add a battery, that's another five kilowatts and so they say no you're already full … so you can't add storage to your solar system."

The powers that be are stumbling in the dark to prevent a looming energy crisis, as the grid seeks to balance renewables' hidden challenges and competing demands.

Mr Morris also said the networks had the capacity to solve the problem of any excess solar flows into the grid, and infrastructure upgrades were not necessary.

"They already have the capability to turn off your solar invertor whenever they feel like it," he said.

"If they choose to connect that functionality, it's there in the inverter. The customer already has it."

ENA has acknowledged there is frustration with rooftop system size limits in the solar industry.

"What we are seeing is solar installers and others slightly frustrated at different requirements for different networks and sometimes they are unclear on the reasons for that," Mr Dillon said.

"Limitations are in place across the country to keep the lights on and make sure the network stays safe and we don't have sudden rushes of people connecting to the grid that causes outage issues."

But Mr Mountain is unconvinced, calling the limitations "somewhat spurious".

"The published, documented, critically reviewed analyses are few and far between, so it is very easy for engineers to make these arguments and those in policy circles only have so much tolerance for the detail," he said.

 

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The Implications of Decarbonizing Canada's Electricity Grid

Canada Electricity Grid Decarbonization advances net-zero goals by expanding renewable energy (wind, solar, hydro), boosting grid reliability with battery storage, and aligning policy, efficiency, and investment to cut emissions and strengthen energy security.

 

Key Points

Canada's shift to low-carbon power using renewables and storage to cut emissions and improve grid reliability.

✅ Invest in wind, solar, hydro, and transmission upgrades

✅ Deploy battery storage to balance intermittent generation

✅ Support just transition, jobs, and energy efficiency

 

As Canada moves towards a more sustainable future, decarbonizing its electricity grid has emerged as a pivotal goal. The transition aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, promote renewable energy sources, and ultimately support global climate targets, with cleaning up Canada's electricity widely viewed as critical to meeting those pledges. However, the implications of this transition are multifaceted, impacting the economy, energy reliability, and the lives of Canadians.

Understanding Decarbonization

Decarbonization refers to the process of reducing carbon emissions produced from various sources, primarily fossil fuels. In Canada, the electricity grid is heavily reliant on natural gas, coal, and oil, which contribute significantly to carbon emissions. The Canadian government has committed to achieving net-zero by 2050 through federal and provincial collaboration, with the electricity sector playing a crucial role in this initiative. The strategy includes increasing the use of renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydroelectric power.

Economic Considerations

Transitioning to a decarbonized electricity grid presents both challenges and opportunities for Canada’s economy. On one hand, the initial costs of investing in renewable energy infrastructure can be substantial. This includes not only the construction of renewable energy plants but also the necessary upgrades to the grid to accommodate new technologies. According to the Fraser Institute analysis, these investments could lead to increased electricity prices, impacting consumers and businesses alike.

However, the shift to a decarbonized grid can also stimulate economic growth. The renewable energy sector is a rapidly growing industry that, as Canada’s race to net-zero accelerates, promises job creation in manufacturing, installation, and maintenance of renewable technologies. Moreover, as technological advancements reduce the cost of renewable energy, the long-term savings on fuel costs can benefit both consumers and businesses. The challenge lies in balancing these economic factors to ensure a smooth transition.

Reliability and Energy Security

A significant concern regarding the decarbonization of the electricity grid is maintaining reliability and energy security, especially as an IEA report indicates Canada will need substantially more electricity to achieve net-zero goals, requiring careful system planning.

To address this challenge, the implementation of energy storage solutions and grid enhancements will be essential. Advances in battery technology and energy storage systems can help manage supply and demand effectively, ensuring that energy remains available even during periods of low renewable output. Additionally, integrating a diverse mix of energy sources, including hydroelectric power, can enhance the reliability of the grid.

Social Impacts

The decarbonization process also carries significant social implications. Communities that currently depend on fossil fuel industries may face economic challenges as the transition progresses, and the Canadian Gas Association has warned of potential economy-wide costs for switching to electricity, underscoring the need for a just transition.

Furthermore, there is a need for public engagement and education on the benefits and challenges of decarbonization. Canadians must understand how changes in energy policy will affect their daily lives, from electricity prices to job opportunities. Fostering a sense of community involvement can help build support for renewable energy initiatives and ensure that diverse voices are heard in the planning process.

Policy Recommendations

For Canada to successfully decarbonize its electricity grid, and building on recent electricity progress across provinces nationwide, robust and forward-thinking policies must be implemented. This includes investment in research and development to advance renewable technologies and improve energy storage solutions. Additionally, policies should encourage public-private partnerships to share the financial burden of infrastructure investments.

Governments at all levels should also promote energy efficiency measures to reduce overall demand, making the transition more manageable. Incentives for consumers to adopt renewable energy solutions, such as solar panels, can further accelerate the shift towards a decarbonized grid.

Decarbonizing Canada's electricity grid presents a complex yet necessary challenge. While there are economic, reliability, and social considerations to navigate, the potential benefits of a cleaner, more sustainable energy future are substantial. By implementing thoughtful policies and fostering community engagement, Canada can lead the way in creating an electricity grid that not only meets the needs of its citizens but also contributes to global efforts in combating climate change.

 

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French Price-Fixing Probe: Schneider, Legrand, Rexel, and Sonepar Fined

French Antitrust Fines for Electrical Cartel expose price fixing by Schneider Electric, Legrand, Rexel, and Sonepar, after a Competition Authority probe into electrical distribution, collusion, and compliance breaches impacting market competition and customers.

 

Key Points

Penalties on Schneider Electric, Legrand, Rexel, and Sonepar for electrical price fixing, upholding competition law.

✅ Competition Authority fined four major suppliers.

✅ Collusion raised prices across construction and industry.

✅ Firms bolster compliance programs and training.

 

In a significant crackdown on corporate malfeasance, French authorities have imposed hefty fines on four major electrical equipment companies—Schneider Electric, Legrand, Rexel, and Sonepar—after concluding a price-fixing investigation. The total fines amount to approximately €500 million, underscoring the seriousness with which regulators are addressing anti-competitive practices in the electrical distribution sector, even as France advances a new electricity pricing scheme to address EU concerns.

Background of the Investigation

The probe, initiated by France’s Competition Authority, sought to uncover collusion among these leading firms regarding the pricing of electrical equipment and services between 2005 and 2012. This investigation is part of a broader initiative to promote fair competition within the market, as Europe prepares to revamp its electricity market to bolster transparency, ensuring that consumers and businesses alike benefit from competitive pricing and innovative products.

The inquiry revealed that these companies had engaged in illicit agreements to fix prices and coordinate their market strategies, limiting competition in a sector critical to both the economy and infrastructure. The findings indicated that the collusion not only stifled competition but also led to inflated prices for customers, illustrating why rolling back electricity prices is often more complex than it appears for customers across various sectors, from construction to manufacturing.

The Fines Imposed

Following the conclusion of the investigation, the fines levied against the companies were substantial. Schneider Electric faced the largest penalty, receiving a fine of €220 million, while Legrand was fined €150 million. Rexel and Sonepar were each fined €70 million and €50 million, respectively. These financial penalties serve as a deterrent to other companies that might consider engaging in similar practices, reinforcing the message that anti-competitive behavior will not be tolerated.

The fines are particularly significant given the size and influence of these companies within the electrical equipment market. Their combined revenues amount to billions of euros annually, making the repercussions of their actions far-reaching. As major players in the industry, their pricing strategies have a direct impact on numerous sectors, from residential construction to large-scale industrial projects.

Industry Reactions

The response from the affected companies has varied. Schneider Electric expressed its commitment to compliance and transparency, acknowledging the importance of adhering to competition laws, amid ongoing EU electricity reform debates that influence market expectations.

Legrand also emphasized its commitment to fair competition, noting that it has taken steps to enhance its compliance framework in response to the investigation. Rexel and Sonepar similarly reaffirmed their dedication to ethical business practices and their intention to cooperate with regulators in the future.

Industry experts have pointed out that these fines, while significant, may not be enough to deter large corporations from engaging in similar behavior unless accompanied by a broader cultural shift within the industry. There is a growing call for enhanced oversight and stricter penalties to ensure that companies prioritize ethical conduct over short-term profits.

Implications for the Market

The fines imposed on Schneider, Legrand, Rexel, and Sonepar could have broader implications for the electrical equipment market and beyond. They signal to other companies within the sector that regulatory bodies are vigilant, even as nine EU countries oppose electricity market reforms proposed as fixes for price spikes, and willing to take decisive action against anti-competitive practices. This could foster a more competitive environment, ultimately benefiting consumers through better prices and enhanced product offerings.

Moreover, the case highlights the importance of regulatory bodies in maintaining fair market conditions. As industries evolve, ongoing vigilance from competition authorities will be necessary to prevent similar instances of collusion and ensure that markets remain competitive and innovative, as seen when New York opened a formal review of retail energy markets.

The recent fines imposed on Schneider Electric, Legrand, Rexel, and Sonepar mark a significant moment in France's ongoing battle against corporate price-fixing and anti-competitive practices, occurring as the government and EDF reached a deal on electricity prices to balance market pressures. With total penalties exceeding €500 million, the investigation underscores the commitment of French authorities to uphold market integrity and protect consumer interests.

As the industry reflects on these developments, it remains crucial for companies to prioritize compliance and ethical business practices. The ultimate goal is to create an environment where competition thrives, innovation flourishes, and consumers benefit from fair pricing. This case serves as a reminder that transparency and accountability are vital in maintaining the health of any market, particularly one as essential as the electrical equipment sector.

 

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Maryland opens solar-power subscriptions to all

Maryland Community Solar Program enables renters and condo residents to subscribe to offsite solar, earn utility bill discounts, and support projects across BGE, Pepco, Delmarva, and Potomac Edison territories, with low to moderate income participation.

 

Key Points

A pilot allowing residents to subscribe to offsite solar and get bill credits and savings, regardless of home ownership.

✅ 5-10 percent discounts on standard utility rates

✅ Available in BGE, Pepco, Delmarva, Potomac Edison areas

✅ Includes low and moderate income subscriber carve-outs

 

Maryland has launched a pilot program that will allow anyone to power their home with solar panels — even if they are renters or condo-dwellers, or live in the shade of trees.

Solar developers are looking for hundreds of residents to subscribe to six power projects planned across the state, including recently announced sites in Owings Mills and Westminster. Their offers include discounts on standard electric rates.

The developers need a critical mass of customers who are willing to buy the projects’ electricity before they can move forward with plans to install solar panels on about 80 acres. Under state rules, the customer base must include low- and moderate-income residents, many of whom face energy insecurity challenges.

The idea of the community solar program is to tap into the pool of residential customers who don’t want to get their energy from fossil fuels but currently have no way to switch to a cleaner alternative.

That could significantly expand demand for solar projects, said Gary Skulnik, a longtime Maryland solar entrepreneur.

Skulnik is now CEO of Neighborhood Sun, a company recruiting customers for the six projects.

“You’re signing up for a project that won’t exist unless we get enough subscribers,” Skulnik said. “You’re actually getting a new project built.”

It could also stoke simmering conflicts over what sort of land is appropriate for solar development.

The General Assembly authorized the community solar pilot program in 2015. But not-in-my-backyard opposition and concerns about the loss of agricultural land have slowed progress.

Community solar could force more communities to confront those sorts of clashes — and to consider more carefully where solar farms belong.

“We are going to see a lot more solar development in the state,” said Megan Billingsley, assistant director of the Valleys Planning Council in Baltimore County. “One of the things we haven’t seen is any direction or thoughtful planning on where we want to see solar development.”

The General Assembly authorized about 200 megawatts in community solar projects — enough to power about 40,000 households — over three years.

Customers can sign up for projects built within the territory of their electric utility. About half of that solar energy load has been allotted for the region served by Baltimore Gas and Electric Co.

By subscribing to a community solar project, customers won’t actually be getting their electricity from its photovoltaic panels. But their payments will help finance it and, in some cases, complementary battery storage solutions as well.

The Public Service Commission has approved six projects so far: Two in BGE territory, in Owings Mills and near Westminster; one in Pepco territory, in Prince George’s County; two in Delmarva Power and Light territory, in Caroline and Worcester counties; and one in Potomac Edison territory, in Washington County where planning officials have developed proposed recommendations.

More projects are expected to win approval in the next two years.

But none of them can be built unless they catch on with electricity customers. The developers are looking for 2,600 customers statewide.

Skulnik would not say how many customers an individual project needs to get the green light. But he said that the Prince George’s proposal, a 25-acre array atop a Fort Washington landfill is the closest, with about 100 subscribers so far.

The terms of subscription vary by project, but discounts range from 5 percent to 10 percent off utility rates. Customers are asked to commit to the projects for as long as 25 years. (They can break the contracts with advance notice, or if they move to a different utility service area.)

Maryland joins more than a dozen states in advancing community solar projects, as scientists work to improve solar and wind power technology.

Corey Ramsden is an executive for Solar United Neighbors, a nonprofit that promotes the solar industry in eight states and the District of Columbia.

He said potential customers are often confused by the mechanics of subscribing to community solar, or hesitant to commit for years or even decades. The industry is working to answer questions and get people more comfortable with the idea, he said.

But it has been a challenge across the country, including debates over New England grid upgrades, and in Maryland. Advocates for solar say there is broad support for renewable energy generation. The state has set goals to increase green energy use and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Still, many Marylanders don’t welcome the reality when a project attempts to move in.

Rural land is often the most desirable for solar developers, because it requires the least effort to prepare for an array of panels. But community groups in those areas have asked whether land historically used for farming is right for a more industrial use.

“People are very much in favor of going for a lot more renewables, for whatever reason,” said Dru Schmidt-Perkins, the former president of the land conservation group 1,000 Friends of Maryland. “That support comes to a screeching halt when land that is perceived to be valuable for other things, whether a historic view­shed or farming, suddenly becomes a target of a location for this new project.”

Such concerns have at least temporarily stalled the momentum for solar across the state. Anne Arundel County had at least five small community solar projects in the pipeline in December when officials decided to pause development for eight months. Baltimore County officials imposed a four-month moratorium on solar development before passing an ordinance last year to limit the size and number of solar farms.

Billingsley said the Valley Plannings Council, which advocates for historic and rural areas in western Baltimore County, is frustrated that there hasn’t been more discussion about which areas the county should target for solar development — and which it shouldn’t.

She said she fears that pressure to expand solar farms across rural lands is only going to grow as community solar projects launch, and as lawmakers in Annapolis talk about more policies to promote investment in renewable energy.

Schmidt-Perkins called community solar “an amazing program” for those who would install solar panels on their roofs if they could. But she said its launch heightens the importance of discussions about a broader solar strategy.

“Most communities are caught a little flat-footed on this and are somewhat at the mercy of an industry that’s chomping at the bit,” she said. “It’s time for Maryland to say, ‘Okay, let’s come up with our plan so that we know how much solar can we really generate in this state on lands that are not conflict-based.’”

 

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Hong Kong to expect electricity bills to rise 1 or 2 per cent

Hong Kong Electricity Tariff Increase reflects a projected 1-2% rise as HK Electric and CLP Power shift to cleaner fuel and natural gas, expand gas-fired units and LNG terminals, and adjust the fuel clause charge.

 

Key Points

An expected 1-2% 2018 rise from cleaner fuel, natural gas projects, asset growth, and shrinking fuel cost surpluses.

✅ Expected 1-2% rise amid cleaner fuel and gas shift

✅ Fuel clause charge and asset expansion pressure prices

✅ HK Electric and CLP Power urged to use surpluses prudently

 

Hong Kong customers have been asked to expect higher electricity bills next year, as seen with BC Hydro rate increases in Canada, with a member of a government panel on energy policy anticipating an increase in tariffs of one or two per cent.

The environment minister, Wong Kam-sing, also hinted they should be prepared to dig deeper into their pockets for electricity, as debates over California electric bills illustrate, in the wake of power companies needing to use more expensive but cleaner fuel to generate power in the future.

HK Electric supplies power to Hong Kong Island, Lamma Island and Ap Lei Chau. Photo: David Wong

The city’s two power companies, HK Electric and CLP Power, are to brief lawmakers on their respective annual tariff adjustments for 2018, amid Ontario electricity price pressures drawing international attention, at a Legislative Council economic development panel meeting on Tuesday.

HK Electric supplies electricity to Hong Kong Island and neighbouring Lamma Island and Ap Lei Chau, while CLP Power serves Kowloon and the New Territories, including Lantau Island.

Wong said on Monday: “We have to appreciate that when we use cleaner fuel, there is a need for electricity tariffs to keep pace. I believe it is the hope of mainstream society to see a low-carbon and healthier environment.”

Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing believes most people desire a low-carbon environment. Photo: Sam Tsang

But he declined to comment on how much the tariffs might rise.

World Green Organisation chief executive William Yu Yuen-ping, also a member of the Energy Advisory Committee, urged the companies to better use their “overflowing” surpluses in their fuel cost recovery accounts.

Tariffs are comprised of two components: a basic amount reflecting a company’s operating costs and investments, and the fuel clause charge, which is based on what the company projects it will pay for fuel for the year.

William Yu of World Green Organisation says the companies should use their surpluses more carefully. Photo: May Tse

Critics have claimed the local power suppliers routinely overestimate their fuel costs and amass huge surpluses.

In recent years, the two managed to freeze or cut their tariffs thanks to savings from lower fuel costs. Last year, HK Electric offered special rebates to its customers, which saw its tariff drop by 17.2 per cent. CLP Power froze its own charge for 2017.

Yu said the two companies should use the surpluses “more carefully” to stabilise tariffs.

Rise after fall in Hong Kong electricity use linked to subsidies

“We estimate a big share of the surplus has been used up and so the honeymoon period is over.”

Based on his group’s research, Yu believed the tariffs would increase by one or two per cent.

Economist and fellow committee member Billy Mak Sui-choi said the expansion of the power companies’ fixed asset bases, such as building new gas-fired units and offshore liquefied natural gas terminals, a pattern reflected in Nova Scotia's 14% rate hike recently approved by regulators, would also cause tariffs to rise.

To fight climate change and improve air quality, the government has pledged to cut carbon intensity by between 50 and 60 per cent by 2020. Officials set a target of boosting the use of natural gas for electricity generation to half the total fuel mix from 2020.

Both power companies are privately owned and monitored by the government through a mutually agreed scheme of control agreements, akin to oversight seen under the UK energy price cap in other jurisdictions. These require the firms to seek government approval for their development plans, including their projected basic tariff levels.

At present, the permitted rate of return on their net fixed assets is 9.99 per cent. The deals are due to expire late next year.

Earlier this year, officials reached a deal with the two companies on the post-2018 scheme, settling on a 15-year term. The new agreements slash their permitted rate of return to 8 per cent.

 

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