Nearly $1 Trillion in Investments Estimated by 2030 as Power Sector Transitions to a More Decarbonized and Flexible System


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Distributed Energy Resources (DER) are surging as solar PV, battery storage, and demand response decarbonize power, cut costs, and boost grid resilience for utilities, ESCOs, and C&I customers through 2030.

 

Key Points

DER are small-scale, grid-connected assets like solar PV, storage, and demand response that deliver flexible power.

✅ Investments in DER to rise 75% by 2030; $846B in assets, $285B in storage.

✅ Residential solar PV: 49.3% of spend; C&I solar PV: 38.9% by 2030.

✅ Drivers: favorable policy, falling costs, high demand charges, decarbonization.

 

Frost & Sullivan's recent analysis, Growth Opportunities in Distributed Energy, Forecast to 2030, finds that the rate of annual investment in distributed energy resources (DER) will increase by 75% by 2030, with the market set for a decade of high growth. Favorable regulations, declining project and technology costs, and high electricity and demand charges are key factors driving investments in DER across the globe, with rising European demand boosting US solar equipment makers prospects in export markets. The COVID-19 pandemic will reduce investment levels in the short term, but the market will recover. Throughout the decade, $846 billion will be invested in DER, supported by a further $285 billion that will be invested in battery storage, with record solar and storage growth anticipated as installations and investments accelerate.

"The DER business model will play an increasingly pivotal role in the global power mix, as highlighted by BNEF's 2050 outlook and as part of a wider effort to decarbonize the sector," said Maria Benintende, Senior Energy Analyst at Frost & Sullivan. "Additionally, solar photovoltaic (PV) will dominate throughout the decade. Residential solar PV will account for 49.3% of total investment ($419 billion), though policy moves like a potential Solar ITC extension could pressure the US wind market, with commercial and industrial solar PV accounting for a further 38.9% ($330 billion)."

Benintende added: "In developing economies, DER offers a chance to bridge the electricity supply gap that still exists in a number of country markets. Further, in developed markets, DER is a key part of the transition to a cleaner and more resilient energy system, consistent with IRENA's renewables decarbonization findings across the energy sector."

DER offers significant revenue growth prospects for all key market participants, including:

  • Technology original equipment manufacturers (OEMs): Offer flexible after-sales support, including digital solutions such as asset integrity and optimization services for their installed base.
  • System integrators and installers: Target household customers and provide efficient and trustworthy solutions with flexible financial models.
  • Energy service companies (ESCOs): ESCOs should focus on adding DER deployments, in line with US decarbonization pathways and policy goals, to expand and enhance their traditional role of providing energy savings and demand-side management services to customers.

Utility companies: Deployment of DER can create new revenue streams for utility companies, from real-time and flexibility markets, and rapid solar PV growth in China illustrates how momentum in renewables can shape utility strategies.
Growth Opportunities in Distributed Energy, Forecast to 2030 is the latest addition to Frost & Sullivan's Energy and Environment research and analyses available through the Frost & Sullivan Leadership Council, which helps organizations identify a continuous flow of growth opportunities to succeed in an unpredictable future.

 

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Alberta Faces Challenges with Solar Energy Expansion

Alberta Solar Energy Expansion confronts high installation costs, grid integration and storage needs, and environmental impact, while incentives, infrastructure upgrades, and renewable targets aim to balance reliability, land use, and emissions reductions provincewide.

 

Key Points

Alberta Solar Energy Expansion is growth in solar tempered by costs, grid limits, environmental impact, and incentives.

✅ High capex and financing challenge utility-scale projects

✅ Grid integration needs storage, transmission, and flexibility

✅ Site selection must mitigate land and wildlife impacts

 

Alberta's push towards expanding solar power is encountering significant financial and environmental hurdles. The province's ambitious plans to boost solar power generation have been met with both enthusiasm and skepticism as stakeholders grapple with the complexities of integrating large-scale solar projects into the existing energy framework.

The Alberta government has been actively promoting solar energy as part of its strategy to diversify the energy mix in a province that is a powerhouse for both green energy and fossil fuels today and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Recent developments have highlighted the potential of solar power to contribute to Alberta's clean energy goals. However, the path forward is fraught with challenges related to costs, environmental impact, and infrastructure needs.

One of the primary issues facing the solar energy sector in Alberta is the high cost of solar installations. Despite decreasing costs for solar technology in recent years, the upfront investment required for large-scale solar farms remains substantial, even as some facilities have been contracted at lower cost than natural gas in Alberta today. This financial barrier has led to concerns about the economic viability of solar projects and their ability to compete with other forms of energy, such as natural gas and oil, which have traditionally dominated Alberta's energy landscape.

Additionally, there are environmental concerns associated with the development of solar farms. While solar energy is considered a clean and renewable resource, the construction of large solar installations can have environmental implications. These include potential impacts on local wildlife habitats, land use changes, where approaches like agrivoltaics can co-locate farming and solar, and the ecological effects of large-scale land clearing. As solar projects expand, balancing the benefits of renewable energy with the need to protect natural ecosystems becomes increasingly important.

Another significant challenge is the integration of solar power into Alberta's existing energy grid. Solar energy production is variable and dependent on weather conditions, especially with Alberta's limited hydro capacity for flexibility, which can create difficulties in maintaining a stable and reliable energy supply. The need for infrastructure upgrades and energy storage solutions is crucial to address these challenges and ensure that solar power can be effectively utilized alongside other energy sources.

Despite these challenges, the Alberta government remains committed to advancing solar energy as a key component of its renewable energy strategy. Recent initiatives include financial incentives and support programs aimed at encouraging investment in solar projects and supporting a renewable energy surge that could power thousands of jobs across Alberta today. These measures are designed to help offset the high costs associated with solar installations and make the technology more accessible to businesses and homeowners alike.

Local communities and businesses are also playing a role in the growth of solar energy in Alberta. Many are exploring opportunities to invest in solar power as a means of reducing energy costs and supporting sustainability efforts and, increasingly, to sell renewable energy into the market as demand grows. These smaller-scale projects contribute to the overall expansion of solar energy and demonstrate the potential for widespread adoption across the province.

The Alberta government has also been working to address the environmental concerns associated with solar energy development. Efforts are underway to implement best practices for minimizing environmental impacts and ensuring that solar projects are developed in an environmentally responsible manner. This includes conducting environmental assessments and working with stakeholders to address potential issues before projects are approved and built.

In summary, while Alberta's solar energy initiatives hold promise for advancing the province's clean energy goals, they are also met with significant financial and environmental challenges. Addressing these issues will be crucial to the successful expansion of solar power in Alberta. The government's ongoing efforts to support solar projects through incentives and infrastructure improvements, coupled with responsible environmental practices, will play a key role in determining the future of solar energy in the province.

 

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Trump Tariff Threat Delays Quebec's Green Energy Bill

Quebec Energy Bill Tariff Delay disrupts Canada-U.S. trade, renewable energy investment, hydroelectric expansion, and clean technology projects, as Trump tariffs on aluminum and steel raise costs, threatening climate targets and green infrastructure timelines.

 

Key Points

A policy pause in Quebec from U.S. tariff threats, disrupting clean investment, hydro expansion, and climate targets.

✅ Tariff risk inflates aluminum and steel project costs.

✅ Quebec delays clean energy legislation amid trade uncertainty.

✅ Hydroelectric reliance complicates emissions reduction timelines.

 

The Trump administration's tariff threat has had a significant impact on Quebec's energy sector, with tariff threats boosting support for projects even as the uncertainty resulted in the delay of a critical energy bill. Originally introduced to streamline energy development and tackle climate change, the bill was meant to help transition Quebec towards greener alternatives while fostering economic growth. However, the U.S. threat to impose tariffs on Canadian goods, including energy products, introduced a wave of uncertainty that led to a pause in the bill's legislative process.

Quebec’s energy bill had ambitious goals of transitioning to renewable sources like wind, solar, and hydroelectric power. It sought to support investments in clean technologies and the expansion of the province's clean energy infrastructure, as the U.S. demand for Canadian green power continues to grow across the border. Moreover, it emphasized the reduction of carbon emissions, an important step towards meeting Quebec's climate targets. At its core, the bill aimed to position the province as a leader in green energy development in Canada and globally.

The interruption caused by President Donald Trump's tariff rhetoric has, however, cast a shadow over the legislation. Tariffs, if enacted, would disproportionately affect Canada's energy exports, with electricity exports at risk under growing tensions, particularly in sectors like aluminum and steel, which are integral to energy infrastructure development. These tariffs could increase the cost of energy-related projects, thereby hindering Quebec's ability to achieve its renewable energy goals and reduce carbon emissions in a timely manner.

The tariff threat was seen as a part of the broader trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada, a continuation of the trade war that had escalated under Trump’s presidency. In this context, the Quebec government was forced to reconsider its legislative priorities, with policymakers citing concerns over the potential long-term consequences on the energy industry, as leaders elsewhere threatened to cut U.S.-bound electricity to exert leverage. With the uncertainty around tariffs and trade relations, the government opted to delay the bill until the geopolitical situation stabilized.

This delay underscores the vulnerability of Quebec’s energy agenda to external pressures. While the provincial government had set its sights on an ambitious green energy future, it now faces significant challenges in ensuring that its projects remain economically viable under the cloud of potential tariffs, even as experts warn against curbing Quebec's exports during the dispute. The delay in the energy bill also reflects broader challenges faced by the Canadian energy sector, which is highly integrated with the U.S. market.

The situation is further complicated by the province's reliance on hydroelectric power, a cornerstone of its energy strategy that supplies markets like New York, where tariffs could spike New York energy prices if cross-border flows are disrupted. While hydroelectric power is a clean and renewable source of energy, there are concerns about the environmental impact of large-scale dams, and these concerns have been growing in recent years. The tariff threat may prompt a reevaluation of Quebec’s energy mix and force the government to balance its environmental goals with economic realities.

The potential imposition of tariffs also raises questions about the future of North American energy cooperation. Historically, Canada and the U.S. have enjoyed a symbiotic energy relationship, with significant energy trade flowing across the border. The energy bill in Quebec was designed with the understanding that cross-border energy trade would continue to thrive. The Trump administration's tariff threat, however, casts doubt on this stability, forcing Quebec lawmakers to reconsider how they proceed with energy policy in a more uncertain trade environment.

Looking forward, Quebec's energy sector will likely need to adjust its strategies to account for the possibility of tariffs, while still pushing for a sustainable energy future, especially if Biden outlook for Canada's energy proves more favorable for the sector in the medium term. It may also open the door for deeper discussions about diversification, both in terms of energy sources and trade partnerships, as Quebec seeks to mitigate the impact of external threats. The delay in the energy bill, though unfortunate, may serve as a wake-up call for Canadian lawmakers to rethink how they balance environmental goals with global trade realities.

Ultimately, the Trump tariff threat highlights the delicate balance between regional energy ambitions and international trade dynamics. For Quebec, the delay in the energy bill could prove to be a pivotal moment in shaping the future of its energy policy.

 

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Biden Imposes Higher Tariffs on Chinese Electric Cars and Solar Cells

U.S. Tariffs on Chinese EVs and Solar Cells target trade imbalances, subsidies, and intellectual property risks, bolstering domestic manufacturing, supply chains, and national security across clean energy, automotive technology, and renewable markets.

 

Key Points

Policy measures raising duties on Chinese EVs and solar cells to protect U.S. industry, IP, and national security.

✅ Raises duties to counter subsidies and IP risks

✅ Supports domestic EV and solar manufacturing jobs

✅ May reshape supply chains, prices, and trade flows

 

In a significant move aimed at bolstering domestic industries and addressing trade imbalances, the Biden administration has announced higher tariffs on Chinese-made electric cars and solar cells. This decision marks a strategic shift in U.S. trade policy, with market observers noting EV tariffs alongside industrial and financial implications across sectors today.

Tariffs on Electric Cars

The imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric cars comes amidst growing competition in the global electric vehicle (EV) market. U.S. automakers and policymakers have raised concerns about unfair trade practices, subsidies, and market access barriers faced by American EV manufacturers in China amid escalating trade tensions with key partners. The tariffs aim to level the playing field and protect U.S. interests in the burgeoning electric vehicle sector.

Impact on Solar Cells

Similarly, higher tariffs on Chinese solar cells address concerns regarding intellectual property theft, subsidies, and market distortions in the solar energy industry, where tariff threats have influenced investment signals across North American markets.

The U.S. solar sector, a key player in renewable energy development, has called for measures to safeguard fair competition and promote domestic manufacturing of solar technologies.

Economic and Political Implications

The tariff hikes underscore broader economic tensions between the United States and China, spanning trade, technology, and geopolitical issues. While aimed at protecting American industries, these tariffs could lead to retaliatory measures from China and impact global supply chains, particularly in renewable energy and automotive sectors, as North American electricity exports at risk add to uncertainty across markets.

Industry and Market Responses

Industry stakeholders have responded with mixed reactions to the tariff announcements. U.S. automakers and solar manufacturers supportive of the tariffs argue they will help level the playing field and encourage domestic production. However, critics warn of potential energy price spikes for consumers, supply chain disruptions, and unintended consequences for global clean energy goals.

Strategic Considerations

The Biden administration's tariff policy reflects a broader strategy to promote economic resilience, innovation, and national security in critical industries, even as cross-border electricity exports become flashpoints in trade policy debates today.

Efforts to strengthen domestic supply chains, invest in renewable energy infrastructure, and foster international partnerships remain central to U.S. economic competitiveness and climate objectives.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, navigating U.S.-China trade relations will continue to be a complex challenge for policymakers. Balancing economic interests, diplomatic engagements, and environmental priorities, alongside regional public support for tariffs, will shape future trade policy decisions affecting electric vehicles, renewable energy, and technology sectors globally.

Conclusion

The Biden administration's decision to impose higher tariffs on Chinese electric cars and solar cells represents a strategic response to economic and geopolitical dynamics reshaping global markets. While aimed at protecting American industries and promoting fair trade practices, the tariffs signal a commitment to fostering competitiveness, innovation, and sustainability in critical sectors of the economy. As these measures unfold, stakeholders will monitor their impact on industry dynamics, supply chain resilience, and international trade relations in the evolving landscape of global commerce.

 

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Why Fort Frances wants to build an integrated microgrid to deliver its electricity

Fort Frances Microgrid aims to boost reliability in Ontario with grid-connected and island modes, Siemens feasibility study, renewable energy integration, EV charging expansion, and resilience modeled after First Nations projects and regional biomass initiatives.

 

Key Points

A community microgrid in Fort Frances enabling grid and island modes to improve reliability and integrate renewables.

✅ Siemens-led feasibility via FedNor funding

✅ Grid-connected or islanded for outage resilience

✅ Integrates renewables, EV charging, and industry growth

 

When the power goes out in Fort Frances, Ont., the community may be left in the dark for hours.

The hydro system's unreliability — caused by its location on the provincial power grid — has prompted the town to seek a creative solution: its own self-contained electricity grid with its own source of power, known as a microgrid. 

Located more than 340 kilometres west of Thunder Bay, Ont., on the border of Minnesota, near the Great Northern Transmission Line corridor, Fort Frances gets its power from a single supply point on Ontario's grid. 

"Sometimes, it's inevitable that we have to have like a six- to eight-hour power outage while equipment is being worked on, and that is no longer acceptable to many of our customers," said Joerg Ruppenstein, president and chief executive officer of Fort Frances Power Corporation.

While Ontario's electrical grid serves the entire province, and national efforts explore macrogrids, a microgrid is contained within a community. Fort Frances hopes to develop an integrated, community-based electric microgrid system that can operate in two modes:

  • Grid-connected mode, which means it's connected to the provincial grid and informed by western grid planning approaches
  • Island mode, which means it's disconnected from the provincial grid and operates independently

The ability to switch between modes allows flexibility. If a storm knocks down a line, the community will still have power.

The town has been given grant funding from the Federal Economic Development Agency for Northern Ontario (FedNor), echoing smart grid funding in Sault Ste. Marie initiatives, for the project. On Monday night, council voted to grant a request for proposal to Siemens Canada Limited to conduct a feasibility study into a microgrid system.

The study, anticipated to be completed by the end of 2023 or early 2024, will assess what an integrated community-based microgrid system could look like in the town of just over 7,000 people, said Faisal Anwar, chief administrative officer of Fort Frances. A timeline for construction will be determined after that. 

The community is still reeling from the closure of the Resolute Forest Products pulp and paper mill in 2014 and faces a declining population, said Ruppenstein. It's hoped the microgrid system will help attract new industry to replace those lost workers and jobs, drawing on Manitoba's hydro experience as a model.

This gives the town a competitive advantage.

"If we were conceivably to attract a larger industrial player that would consume a considerable amount of energy, it would result in reduced rates for everyone…we're the only utility really in Ontario that can offer that model," Ruppenstein said.

The project can also incorporate renewable energy like solar or wind power, as seen in B.C.'s clean energy shift efforts, into the microgrid system, and support the growth of electric vehicles, he said. Many residents fill their gas tanks in Minnesota because it's cheaper, but Fort Frances has the potential to become a hub for electric vehicle charging.

A few remote First Nations have recently switched to microgrid systems fuelled by green energy, including Gull Bay First Nation and Fort Severn First Nation. These are communities that have historically relied on diesel fuel either flown in, which is incredibly expensive, or transported via ice roads, which are seeing shorter seasons each year.

Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson was in Thunder Bay, Ont., to announce $35 million for a biomass generation facility in Whitesand First Nation, complementing federal funding for the Manitoba-Saskatchewan transmission line elsewhere in the region.

 

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Hydro One reports $1.1B Q2 profit boosted by one-time gain due to court ruling

Hydro One Q2 Earnings surge on a one-time gain from a court ruling on a deferred tax asset, lifting profit, revenue, and adjusted EPS at Ontario's largest utility regulated by the Ontario Energy Board.

 

Key Points

Hydro One Q2 earnings jumped on an $867M court gain, with revenue at $1.67B and adjusted EPS improving to $0.39.

✅ One-time gain: $867M from tax appeal ruling.

✅ Revenue: $1.67B vs $1.41B last year.

✅ Adjusted EPS: $0.39 vs $0.26.

 

Hydro One Ltd., following the Peterborough Distribution sale transaction closing, reported a second-quarter profit of $1.1 billion, boosted by a one-time gain related to a court decision.

The power utility says it saw a one-time gain of $867 million in the quarter due to an Ontario court ruling on a deferred tax asset appeal that set aside an Ontario Energy Board decision earlier.

Hydro One says the profit amounted to $1.84 per share for the quarter ended June 30, amid investor concerns about uncertainties, up from $155 million or 26 cents per share a year earlier.

Shares also moved lower after the Ontario government announced leadership changes, as seen when Hydro One shares fell on the news in prior trading.

On an adjusted basis, it says it earned 39 cents per share for the quarter, despite earlier profit plunge headlines, up from an adjusted profit of 26 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue totalled $1.67 billion, up from $1.41 billion in the second quarter of 2019, while other Canadian utilities like Manitoba Hydro face heavy debt burdens.

Hydro One is Ontario’s largest electricity transmission and distribution provider, and its CEO compensation has drawn scrutiny in the province.

 

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Court reinstates constitutional challenge to Ontario's hefty ‘global adjustment’ electricity charge

Ontario Global Adjustment Charge faces constitutional scrutiny as a regulatory charge vs tax; Court of Appeal revives case over electricity pricing, feed-in tariff contracts, IESO policy, and hydro rate impacts on consumers and industry.

 

Key Points

A provincial electricity fee funding generator contracts, now central to a court fight over tax versus regulatory charge.

✅ Funds gap between market price and contracted generator rates

✅ At issue: regulatory charge vs tax under constitutional law

✅ Linked to feed-in tariff, IESO policy, and hydro rate hikes

 

Ontario’s court of appeal has decided that a constitutional challenge of a steep provincial electricity charge should get its day in court, overturning a lower-court judgment that had dismissed the legal bid.

Hamilton, Ont.-based National Steel Car Ltd. launched the challenge in 2017, saying Ontario’s so-called global adjustment charge was unconstitutional because it is a tax — not a valid regulatory charge — that was not passed by the legislature.

The global adjustment funds the difference between the province’s hourly electricity price and the price guaranteed under contracts to power generators. It is “the component that covers the cost of building new electricity infrastructure in the province, maintaining existing resources, as well as providing conservation and demand management programs,” the province’s Independent Electricity System Operator says.

However, the global adjustment now makes up most of the commodity portion of a household electricity bill, and its costs have ballooned, as regulators elsewhere consider a proposed 14% rate hike in Nova Scotia.

Ontario’s auditor general said in 2015 that global adjustment fees had increased from $650 million in 2006 to more than $7 billion in 2014. She added that consumers would pay $133 billion in global adjustment fees from 2015 to 2032, after having already paid $37 billion from 2006 to 2014.

National Steel Car, which manufactures steel rail cars and faces high electricity rates that hurt Ontario factories, said its global adjustment costs went from $207,260 in 2008 to almost $3.4 million in 2016, according to an Ontario Court of Appeal decision released on Wednesday.

The company claimed the global adjustment was a tax because one of its components funds electricity procurement contracts under a “feed-in tariff” program, or FIT, which National Steel Car called “the main culprit behind the dramatic price increases for electricity,” the decision said.

Ontario’s auditor general said the FIT program “paid excessive prices to renewable energy generators.” The program has been ended, but contracts awarded under it remain in place.


National Steel Car claimed the FIT program “was actually designed to accomplish social goals unrelated to the generation of electricity,” such as helping rural and indigenous communities, and was therefore a tax trying to help with policy goals.

“The appellant submits that the Policy Goals can be achieved by Ontario in several ways, just not through the electricity pricing formula,” the decision said.

National Steel Car also argued the global adjustment violated a provincial law that requires the government to hold a referendum for new taxes.

“The appellant’s principal claim is that the Global Adjustment was a ‘colourable attempt to disguise a tax as a regulatory charge with the purpose of funding the costs of the Policy Goals,’” the decision said. “The appellant pressed this argument before the motion judge and before this court. The motion judge did not directly or adequately address it.”

The Ontario government applied to have the challenge thrown out for having “no reasonable cause of action,” and a Superior Court judge did so in 2018, saying the global adjustment is not a tax.

National Steel Car appealed the decision, and the decision published Wednesday allowed the appeal, set aside the lower-court judgment, and will send the case back to Superior Court, where it could get a full hearing.

“The appellant’s claim is sufficiently plausible on the evidentiary record it put forward that the applications should not have been dismissed on a pleadings motion before the development of a full record,” wrote Justice Peter D. Lauwers. “It is not plain, obvious and beyond doubt that the Global Adjustment, and particularly the challenged component, is properly characterized as a valid regulatory charge and not as an impermissible tax.”

Jerome Morse of Morse Shannon LLP, one of National Steel Car’s lawyers, said the Ontario government would now have 60 days to decide whether to seek permission to appeal to the Supreme Court of Canada.

“What the court has basically said is, ‘this is a plausible argument, here are the reasons why it’s plausible, there was no answer to this,’” Morse told the Financial Post.

Ontario and the IESO had supported the lower-court decision, but there has been a change in government since the challenge was first launched, with Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford replacing the Liberals and Kathleen Wynne in power. The Liberals had launched a plan aimed at addressing hydro costs before losing in a 2018 election, the main thrust of which had been to refinance global adjustment costs.

Wednesday’s decision states that “Ontario’s counsel advised the court that the current Ontario government ‘does not agree with the former government’s electricity procurement policy (since-repealed).’

“The government’s view is that: ‘The solution does not lie with the courts, but instead in the political arena with political actors,’” it adds.

A spokesperson for Ontario Energy Minister Greg Rickford said in an email that they are reviewing the decision but “as this matter is in the appeal period, it would be inappropriate to comment.” 

Ontario had also requested to stay the matter so a regulator, the Ontario Energy Board, could weigh in, while the Nova Scotia regulator approved a 14% hike in a separate case.

“However, Ontario only sought this relief from the motion judge in the alternative, and given the motion judge’s ultimate decision, she did not rule on the stay,” Thursday’s decision said. “It would be premature for this court to rule on the issue, although it seems incongruous for Ontario to argue that the Superior Court is the convenient forum in which to seek to dismiss the applications as meritless, but that it is not the convenient forum for assessing the merits of the applications.”

National Steel Car’s challenge bears a resemblance to the constitutional challenges launched by Ontario and other provinces over the federal government’s carbon tax, but Justice Lauwers wrote “that the federal legislative scheme under consideration in those cases is distinctly different from the legislation at issue in this appeal.”

“Nothing in those decisions impacts this appeal,” the judge added.
 

 

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