Canada set to hit 5 GW milestone

Ontario EV Clean Electricity Plan aligns EV adoption with clean power, natural gas phaseout, and grid decarbonization, cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Parties propose net-zero by 2030 as IESO warns rising gas use undermines climate gains.

Key Points

A plan to link EV growth to a cleaner grid by phasing out gas, boosting renewables, and targeting net-zero power.

✅ Parties back EVs; most pledge gas phaseout by 2030

✅ IESO projects quadrupled grid emissions under more gas

✅ Clean power needed to maximize EV climate benefits

Ontario’s political leaders are unanimously promoting electric vehicles (EVs) in their election platforms, even as Ontario's EV charging network remains only partially complete by a recent deadline. But if the electricity that powers those vehicles continues to come from burning fossil fuels, the province won’t reap the full environmental benefit of EVs, the Ontario Clean Air Alliance says.

“If we’re going to get the maximum benefit of electric vehicles, we’ve got to have a clean electricity supply,” said Jack Gibbons, chair of the alliance.

The environmental advocacy group surveyed the province’s Progressive Conservative, Liberal, NDP and Green parties about where they stand on generating electricity from natural gas, a fossil fuel. Only three committed to phasing out Ontario’s gas plants, a step seen as essential for supporting Canada's EV goals over time.

The NDP promised an electricity grid with net-zero emissions by 2030, while federal targets like the 2035 EV sales mandate shape transport electrification as well. The Liberals pledged to bring electricity emissions "as close to zero as possible by 2030.” The Green Party plans to make Ontario’s electricity “emission-free as quickly as possible,” aiming for a gas phaseout by 2030. The Progressive Conservatives did not answer the survey and did not respond to requests for comment from Canada’s National Observer.

Affordability and reliability were the top concerns for all three parties that responded, including the cost of expanding EV charging stations across the province.

Ontario used to get 25 per cent of its electricity from coal-fired power plants, even as 2019 fossil-fuel electricity share remained significant nationwide. However, in 1997, Gibbons formed the alliance to campaign against coal, and the province’s last coal-fired plant closed in 2014, leaving Ontario with one of North America’s cleanest electricity systems. At the time, Gibbons said, transitioning to gas-fired electricity made sense.

Now, Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives plan to double-down on gas-fired electricity generation to meet future demand, despite a looming energy storage supply crunch that is reshaping planning. As a result, planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation will more than quadruple by 2030, according to Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO).

If that happens, Ontario will lose 30 per cent of the progress it made by phasing out coal.

“If you have an increasing percentage of your electricity generated with fossil fuels, that undermines the activities of a variety of sectors in the society,” said Peter Tabuns, NDP candidate for Toronto-Danforth and former NDP energy and climate critic. “Ford's position of not committing to greening the system undermines the goals.”

In 2020, the alliance spearheaded a campaign calling on the Ford government to phase out the province’s gas plants. Thirty-two municipalities supported the campaign, and in Northern Ontario, Sudbury eco groups say sustainability is key to the grid's future. Many cities have said they will not be able to meet their own goals to fight climate change unless Ontario stops using fossil fuels for electricity.

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Clean Energy Transition spans hydrogen strategies, offshore wind and undersea cables, decarbonization pledges, and net-zero targets, including green vs blue hydrogen, carbon capture, sustainable aviation fuel, forest conservation, and wetland protection in Canadian policy.

Key Points

A shift to low-carbon systems via hydrogen, renewables, net-zero policies, carbon capture, and conservation.

✅ Hydrogen pathways: green vs blue with carbon capture

✅ Grid expansion: offshore wind and undersea cables in Japan

✅ Policy and corporate moves: net-zero, SAF, forests, wetlands

The Canadian federal government is set to sign a new agreement with Germany to strategize on a “clean-energy transition,” with clean hydrogen in Canada expected to be a key player the Globe and Mail reports.

“Germany is probably the world’s most interesting market for hydrogen right now, and Canada is potentially a very big power in its production,” Sabine Sparwasser, Germany’s ambassador to Canada, said in an interview.

However, some friction is expected as Natural Resources Minister Seamus O’Regan has been endorsing “blue” hydrogen, while Germany has been more interested in “green” hydrogen. The former hydrogen is produced from natural gas or other fossil fuels, while simultaneously “using carbon-capture technology to minimize emissions from the process.” In contrast, “green” hydrogen, is manufactured from non-fossil fuel sources, and cleaning up Canada's electricity is critical to meeting climate pledges.

“How the focus on blue hydrogen will be aligned with Canada’s goal of reaching climate neutrality by 2050 is not spelled out in detail,” says an executive summary of the report by the Berlin-based think tank and consultancy Adelphi. “As a result, the strategy seems to be more of a vision for the future of those provinces with large fossil fuel resources.”

According to an IEA report Canada will need more electricity to hit net-zero, underscoring the strategy questions.

Internationally

Japan is in talks to develop undersea cables that would bring offshore wind energy to Tokyo and the Kansai region, as the country hopes to more than quadrable its wind capacity from 10 gigawatts in 2030 to 45 gigawatts in 2040. The construction of the cables would cost about US$9.2 billion.

In Western Canada, bridging the electricity gap between Alberta and B.C. makes similar climate sense, proponents argue.

Approximately 80 per cent of that offshore power is expected to be built in Hokkaido, Tohoku, and Kyushu regions. The project is part of the country’s pledge to achieve decarbonization by 2050, according to BNN Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, Russia is falling behind in the world’s transition to clean energy.

“What’s the alternative? Russia can’t be an exporter of clean energy, that path isn’t open for us,” says Konstantin Simonov, director of the National Energy Security Fund, a Moscow consultancy whose clients include major oil and gas companies. “We can’t just swap fossil fuel production for clean energy production, because we don’t have any technology of our own.” Ultimately, natural gas will always be cheaper than renewable energy in Russia, Simonov added. This story also from BNN Bloomberg.

Finally, New Zealand’s Tilt Renewables Ltd., an electricity company, has announced it would be acquired by Powering Australian Renewables (PowAR) for NZ$2.94 billion (US$2.10 billion). PowAR is Australia’s largest owner of wind and solar energy, and the deal will give the energy giant access to Tilt’s 20 wind farms. Reuters has the story.

In Canada  

Air Canada has unveiled plans to fight climate change. Specifically, the airlines giant has committed to reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) by 20 per cent from flights by 2030, investing $50 million in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and ensuring net-zero emissions by 2050.

In other news, B.C. is facing mounting pressure to abstain from logging “old growth forests” while the government transitions to more sustainable forestry policies. A report titled A New Future for Old Forests called on the provincial government to act within six months to protect such forests in April 2020.

The province's Site C mega dam is billions over budget but will go ahead, the premier said, highlighting the energy sector's complexity.

Last September, the province announced, “it would temporarily defer old growth harvesting in close to 353,000 hectares in nine different areas.” The B.C. government will hold consultations with First Nations and other forestry stakeholders “to determine the next areas where harvesting may be deferred,” according to Forests Minister Katrine Conroy. The Canadian Press has more.

Separately, LNG powered with electricity could be a boon for B.C.'s independent power producers, analysts say.

Finally, Pickering Developments Inc. has come forward saying it will not “alter or remove the wetland” that was meant to house an Amazon facility, according to CBC News.

The announcement comes after CBC News’s previously reported that the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) was pressured to issue a construction permit to Pickering Developments Inc. by Doug Ford’s provincial government. However, on March 12, an official with Amazon Canada told CBC News that the company no longer wished to build a warehouse on the site.

“In light of a recent announcement that a new fulfilment centre will no longer be located on this property, this voluntary undertaking ensures that no work, legally authorized by that permit, will occur,” Pickering Development Inc. said in a statement provided to CBC Toronto.

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China EV Market sees surging deliveries as Tesla, XPeng, Nio, and Li Auto race for market share, driven by tech-forward infotainment, autonomous features, and strong P7 and G3 demand, signaling intensifying competition and rapid growth.

Key Points

China EV Market features rapid EV sales growth led by Tesla, XPeng, Nio, and Li Auto amid tech-driven competition.

✅ XPeng deliveries up 617% YoY in June; 459% YTD growth

✅ Nio and Li Auto post triple-digit quarterly gains

✅ Tech focus: infotainment, ADAS; models P7, G3, G3i

XPeng President and Vice Chairman Brian Gu is quick to praise the Tesla brand and acknowledge the EV maker's "commanding" market share in China, and in key markets like the California EV market as well. 

But in the same breath, the executive at the upstart China-based EV rival said his company and peers are fast closing the competitive gap with Tesla.

"I think the Chinese players are catching up very quickly," Gu said on Yahoo Finance Live. "Our product as well as some of the other products that are being introduced by the leading players are very good, and have comparable specs — as well as better features I think compared to Tesla."

That point is not lost in the sales data from the main China EV players, and mirrors the global EV surge seen in recent years.

XPeng said this week deliveries in June surged 617% year-over-year to 6,565. So far this year, deliveries have skyrocketed 459% to 30,738 fueled by demand for XPeng's P7 sedan and G3 SUV, despite concerns about the biggest threats to the EV boom among investors. 

June deliveries at Nio rose 116% from a year ago to 8,083, even as mainstream adoption hurdles remain industry-wide. For the quarter ending June 30, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles marking a growth rate from a year ago of 112%. 

As for Li Auto, its June deliveries rose 321% from a year earlier to 7,713. Second quarter deliveries improved 166% year-over-year to 17,575.

Tesla reportedly sold 33,155 cars in China in June, up 122% year-over-year, even as its energy business outlook remains a focus for investors. 

"In the last few months, our growth has outpaced the industry as well as Tesla in China. But I think it's a long race because ultimately this market will not be dominated by one or two companies. It will probably be a number of players occupying probably large market share positions of 10% and above. That will likely be the trend, and we hope to be one of those top players," Gu explained. 

XPeng — which JPMorgan analysts estimate could grab 8% of China's electric car market by 2025 —currently has two models in the Chinese electric car market, as China's carmakers push into Europe too. They have gained notoriety in an increasingly crowded market for their tech-forward infotainment systems and autonomous technology.

The company's third model dubbed the G3i is expected to see deliveries begin in September, taking aim at smaller sedans such as the Toyota Camry. 

Shares of China's EV makers have cooled off this year despite their strong sales, and the U.S. EV market share dipped in early 2024 as well. XPeng shares are down 7% year-to-date, while Nio has shed 5%. Li Auto's stock is down 11% on the year. 

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Electric Vehicles deliver longer range, faster charging, and broader price options, with incentives and lease deals reducing costs; evaluate performance, home charging, road trip needs, and vehicle types like SUVs, pickups, and vans.

Key Points

Electric vehicles are battery-powered cars that cut costs, boost performance, and charge at home or at fast stations.

✅ Longer range and faster charging reduce range anxiety

✅ Lower operating costs vs gas: fuel, maintenance, incentives

✅ Home Level 2 charging recommended; plan for road trips

Electric cars now drive farther, charge faster and come in nearly every price range. But when GMC began promoting its Hummer EV pickup truck to be released this year, it became even clearer that electric cars are primed to go mainstream for many buyers.

Once the domain of environmentalists, then early adopters, electric vehicles may soon have even truck bros kicking the gasoline habit, though sales are still behind gas cars in many markets.

With many models now available or coming soon — and arriving ahead of schedule for several automakers — including a knockoff of the lovable Volkswagen Microbus — you may be wondering if it’s finally time to buy or lease one.

Here are the essential questions to answer before you do.

(Full disclosure: I’m a convert myself after six years and 70,000 gas-free miles.)

1. Can you afford an electric car?
Electric vehicles tend to be pricy to buy but can be more affordable to lease. Finding federal, state and local government incentives can also reduce sticker shock. And, even if the monthly payment is higher than a comparable gas car, operating costs are lower.

Gas vehicles cost an average of $3,356 per year to fuel, tax and insure, while electric cost just $2,722, according to a study by Self Financial, and Consumer Reports finds EVs save money in the long run too. Find out how much you can save with the Department of Energy calculator.

2. How far do you need to drive on a single charge?
Although almost 60 percent of all car trips in America were less than 6 miles in 2017, according to the Department of Energy, the phrase “range anxiety” scared many would-be early adopters.

Teslas became popular in part because they offered 250 miles of range. But the range of many electric vehicles between charges is now over 200 miles; even the modestly priced Chevrolet Bolt can travel 259 miles on a single charge.

Still, electric vehicles have a “road trip problem,” according to Josh Sadlier, director of content strategy for car site Edmunds.com. “If you like road trips, you almost have to have two cars — one for around town and one for longer trips,” he says.

3. Where will you charge it?
If you live in an apartment without a charging station, this could be a deal breaker.

The number of public chargers increased by 60 percent worldwide in 2019, according to the International Energy Agency. While these stations — some of which are free — are more available, most electric vehicle owners install a home station for faster charging.

Electric vehicles can be charged by plugging into a common 120-volt household outlet, but it’s slow, and understanding charging costs can help you plan home use. To speed up charging, many electric vehicle owners wind up buying a 240-volt charging station and having an electrician install it for a total cost of $1,200, according to the home remodeling website Fixr.

4. What will you use the car for?
While there are a few luxury electric SUVs on the market, most electric vehicles are smaller sedans or hatchbacks with limited cargo capacity. However, the coming wave of electric cars are more versatile, and many experts expect that within a decade these options will be commonplace, including vans, such as the Microbus, and trucks, such as an electric version of the popular Ford F-150 pickup.

5. Do you enjoy performance?
This is where electric vehicles really shine. According to automotive experts, electric cars beat their gas counterparts in these ways:

Immediate response with great low-end acceleration, particularly in the 0-30 mph range.
Sure-footed handling due to the heavy battery mounted under the car, giving it a low center of gravity.
No “shift shock” from changing gears in a conventional gas car’s transmission.
Little noise except from the wind and tires.

Other factors
Once you consider the big questions, here are other reasons to make an electric car your next choice:

Reduced environmental guilt. There is a persistent myth that electric vehicles simply move the emissions from the tailpipe to the power generating station. Yes, producing electricity produces emissions, but many electric vehicle owners charge at night when much of the electricity would otherwise be unused. According to research published by the BBC and evidence that they are better for the planet in many scenarios electric cars reduce emissions by an average of 70 percent, depending on where people live.

Less time refueling. It takes only seconds to plug in at home, and the electric vehicle will recharge while you’re doing other things. No more searching for gas stations and standing by as your tank gulps down gasoline.

No oil changes. Dealers like a constant stream of drivers coming in for oil changes so they can upsell other services. Electric vehicles have fewer moving parts and require fewer trips to the dealership for maintenance.

Carpool lanes and other perks. Check your state regulations to see if an electric vehicle gets you access to the carpool lane, free parking or other special advantages.

Enjoy the technology. Yes, electric vehicles are more expensive, but they also tend to offer top-of-the-line comfort, safety features and technology compared with their gas counterparts.

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California NEM-3 Tariff ushers a successor Net Energy Metering framework, revising export compensation, TOU rates, and non-bypassable charges to balance ratepayer impacts, rooftop solar growth, and energy storage adoption across diverse communities.

Key Points

The CPUC's successor NEM policy redefining export credits and rates to sustain customer-sited solar and storage.

✅ Sets export compensation methodology beyond NEM 2.0

✅ Aligns TOU rates and non-bypassable charges with costs

✅ Encourages solar-plus-storage adoption and equity access

The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) has officially commenced its “NEM-3” proceeding, which will establish the successor Net Energy Metering (NEM) tariff to the “NEM 2.0” program in California. This is a highly anticipated, high-stakes proceeding that will effectively modify the rules for the NEM tariff in California, amid ongoing electricity pricing changes that affect residential rooftop solar – arguably the single most important policy mechanism for customer-sited solar over the last decade.

The CPUC’s recent order instituting rule-making (OIR) filing stated that “the major focus of this proceeding will be on the development of a successor to existing NEM 2.0 tariffs. This successor will be a mechanism for providing customer-generators with credit or compensation for electricity generated by their renewable facilities that a) balances the costs and benefits of the renewable electrical generation facility and b) allows customer-sited renewable generation to grow sustainably among different types of customers and throughout California’s diverse communities.”

This successor tariff proceeding was initiated by Assembly Bill 327, which was signed into law in October of 2013. AB 327 is best known as the legislation that directed the CPUC to create the “NEM 2.0” successor tariff, which was adopted by the CPUC in January of 2016.

The original Net Energy Metering program in California (“NEM 1.0”) effectively enabled full-retail value net metering “allowing NEM customers to be compensated for the electricity generated by an eligible customer-sited renewable resource and fed back to the utility over an entire billing period.” Under the NEM 2.0 tariff, customers were required to pay charges that aligned them more closely with non-NEM customer costs than under the original structure. The main changes adopted when the NEM 2.0 was implemented were that NEM 2.0 customer-generators must: (i) pay a one-time interconnection fee; (ii) pay non-bypassable charges on each kilowatt-hour of electricity they consume from the grid; and (iii) customers were required to transfer to a time-of-use (TOU) rate, with potential changes to electric bills for many customers.

NEM 2.0

The commencement of the NEM-3 OIR was preceded by the publishing of a 318-page Net Energy Metering 2.0 Lookback Study, which was published by Itron, Verdant Associates, and Energy and Environmental Economics. The CPUC-commissioned study had been widely anticipated and was expected to act as the starting reference point for the successor tariff proceeding. Verdant also hosted a webinar, which summarized the study’s inputs, assumptions, draft findings and results.

The study utilized several different tests to study the impact of NEM 2.0. The cost effectiveness analysis tests, which estimate costs and benefits attributed to NEM 2.0 include: (i) total resource cost test, (ii) participant cost test, (iii) ratepayer impact measure test, and (iv) program administrator test. The evaluation also included a cost of service analysis, which estimates the marginal cost borne by the utility to serve a NEM 2.0 customer.

The opening paragraph of the report’s executive summary stated that “overall, we found that NEM 2.0 participants benefit from the structure, while ratepayers see increased rates.” In every test that the author’s conducted the results generally supported this conclusion for residential customers. There were some exceptions in their findings. For example, in the cost of service analysis the report stated that “residential customers that install customer-sited renewable resources on average pay lower bills than the utility’s cost to serve them. On the other hand, nonresidential customers pay bills that are slightly higher than their cost of service after installing customer-sited renewable resources. This is largely due to nonresidential customer rates having demand charges (and other fixed fees), and the lower ratio of PV system size to customer load when compared to residential customers.”

Similar debates over solar rate design, including Massachusetts solar demand charges, highlight how demand charges and TOU decisions can affect customer economics.

NEM-3 timeline

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The preliminary schedule that the CPUC laid out in its OIR estimates that the proceeding will take roughly 15 months in total, starting with a November 2020 pre-hearing conference.

The real meat of the proceeding, where parties will present their proposals for what they believe the successor tariff should be, as the state considers revamping electricity rates to clean the grid, and really show their hand will not begin until the Spring of 2021. So we’re still a little ways away from seeing the proposals that the key parties to this proceeding, like the Investor Owned Utilities (PG&E, SCE, SDG&E), solar and storage advocates such as SEIA, CALSSA, Vote Solar, and ratepayer advocates like TURN) will submit.

While the outcome for the new successor NEM tariff is anyone’s guess at this point, some industry policy folks are starting to speculate. We think it is safe to assume that the value of exported energy will get reduced, with debates over income-based utility charges also influencing rate design. How much and the mechanism for how exports get valued remains to be seen. Based on the findings from the lookback study, it seems like the reduction in export value will be more severe than what happened when NEM 2.0 got implemented. In NEM 2.0, non-bypassable charges, which are volumetric charges that must be paid on all imported energy and cannot be netted-out by exports, only equated to roughly $0.02 to $0.03/kWh.

Given that the value of exports will almost certainly get reduced, we expect that to be bullish for energy storage as America goes electric and load shapes evolve. Energy storage attachment rates with solar are already steadily rising in California. By the time NEM-3 starts getting implemented, likely in 2022, we think storage attachment rates will likely escalate further.

We would not be surprised to see future storage attachment rates in California look like the Hawaiian market today, which are upwards of 80% for certain types of customers and applications. Two big questions on our mind are: (i) will the NEM 3.0 rules be different for different customer class: residential, CARE (e.g., low-income or disadvantaged communities), and commercial & industrial; (ii) will the CPUC introduce some sort of glidepath or phased in implementation approach?

The outcome of this proceeding will have far reaching implications on the future of customer-sited solar and energy storage in California. The NEM-3 outcome in California may likely serve as precedent for other states, as California exports its energy policies across the West, and utility territories that are expected to redesign their Net Energy Metering tariffs in the coming years.

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U.S. EV Sales Growth reflects rising consumer demand, expanding market share, new tax credits, and robust charging infrastructure, as automakers boost output and quarterly sales under the Inflation Reduction Act drive adoption across states.

Key Points

It is the rise in U.S. EV sales and market share, driven by incentives, charging growth, and automaker investment.

✅ Quarterly EV sales and share have risen since Q3 2021.

✅ Share topped 10% in Q3 2023, with states far above.

✅ IRA credits and chargers lower costs and boost adoption.

Contrary to any skepticism, the demand for electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States is not dwindling. Data from the Alliance for Automotive Innovation highlights a significant and ongoing increase in EV sales from 2021 through the third quarter of 2023. An upward trend in quarterly sales (depicted as bars on the left axis) and EV sales shares (illustrated by the red line on the right axis) is evident. Sales surged from about 125,000 in Q1 2021 to 185,000 in Q4 2021, and from around 300,000 in Q1 2023 to 375,000 by Q3 2023. Notably, by Q3 2023, annual U.S. EV sales exceeded 1 million for the first time, a milestone often cited as the tipping point for mass adoption in the U.S., marking a 58% increase over the same period in 2022.

EV sales have shown consistent quarterly growth since Q3 2021, and the proportion of EVs in total light-duty vehicle sales is also on the rise. EVs’ share of new sales increased from roughly 3% in Q1 2021 to about 7% in 2022, and further to over 10% in Q3 2023, though they are still behind gas cars in overall market share, for now. For context, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Automotive Trends Report, EVs have reached a 10% market share more quickly than conventional hybrids without a plug, which took about 25 years.

State-level data also indicates that several states exceed national averages in EV sales. California, for example, saw EVs comprising nearly 27% of sales through September 2023, even as a brief Q1 2024 market share dip has been noted nationally. Additionally, 12 states plus the District of Columbia had EV sales shares between 10% and 20% through Q3 2023.

EV sales data by automaker reveal that most companies sold more EVs in Q2 or Q3 2023 than in any previous quarter, mirroring global growth that went from zero to 2 million in five years. Except for Ford, each automaker sold more EVs in the first three quarters of 2023 than in all of 2022. EV sales in Q3 2023 notably increased compared to Q3 2022 for companies like BMW, Tesla, and Volkswagen.

Despite some production scalebacks by Ford and General Motors, these companies, along with others, remain dedicated to an electric future and expect to sell more EVs than ever. The growing consumer interest in EVs is also reflected in recent surveys by McKinsey, J.D. Power, and Consumer Reports, and echoed in Europe where the share of electric cars grew during lockdown months, showing an increasing intent to purchase EVs and a declining interest in gasoline vehicles.

Furthermore, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 introduces new tax credits, potentially making EVs more affordable than gasoline counterparts. Investments in charging infrastructure are also expected to increase, especially as EV adoption could drive a 38% rise in U.S. electricity demand, with over $21 billion allocated to boost public chargers from around 160,000 in 2023 to nearly 1 million by 2030.

The shift to EVs is crucial for reducing climate pollution, enhancing public health, and generating economic benefits and jobs, and by 2021 plug-in vehicles had already traveled 19 billion miles on electricity, underscoring real-world progress toward these goals. The current data and trends indicate a robust and positive future for EVs in the U.S., reinforcing the need for strong standards to further encourage investment and consumer confidence in electric vehicles.

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