Will Electric Vehicles Crash The Grid?

U.S. EV Sales Growth reflects rising consumer demand, expanding market share, new tax credits, and robust charging infrastructure, as automakers boost output and quarterly sales under the Inflation Reduction Act drive adoption across states.

Key Points

It is the rise in U.S. EV sales and market share, driven by incentives, charging growth, and automaker investment.

✅ Quarterly EV sales and share have risen since Q3 2021.

✅ Share topped 10% in Q3 2023, with states far above.

✅ IRA credits and chargers lower costs and boost adoption.

Contrary to any skepticism, the demand for electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States is not dwindling. Data from the Alliance for Automotive Innovation highlights a significant and ongoing increase in EV sales from 2021 through the third quarter of 2023. An upward trend in quarterly sales (depicted as bars on the left axis) and EV sales shares (illustrated by the red line on the right axis) is evident. Sales surged from about 125,000 in Q1 2021 to 185,000 in Q4 2021, and from around 300,000 in Q1 2023 to 375,000 by Q3 2023. Notably, by Q3 2023, annual U.S. EV sales exceeded 1 million for the first time, a milestone often cited as the tipping point for mass adoption in the U.S., marking a 58% increase over the same period in 2022.

EV sales have shown consistent quarterly growth since Q3 2021, and the proportion of EVs in total light-duty vehicle sales is also on the rise. EVs’ share of new sales increased from roughly 3% in Q1 2021 to about 7% in 2022, and further to over 10% in Q3 2023, though they are still behind gas cars in overall market share, for now. For context, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Automotive Trends Report, EVs have reached a 10% market share more quickly than conventional hybrids without a plug, which took about 25 years.

State-level data also indicates that several states exceed national averages in EV sales. California, for example, saw EVs comprising nearly 27% of sales through September 2023, even as a brief Q1 2024 market share dip has been noted nationally. Additionally, 12 states plus the District of Columbia had EV sales shares between 10% and 20% through Q3 2023.

EV sales data by automaker reveal that most companies sold more EVs in Q2 or Q3 2023 than in any previous quarter, mirroring global growth that went from zero to 2 million in five years. Except for Ford, each automaker sold more EVs in the first three quarters of 2023 than in all of 2022. EV sales in Q3 2023 notably increased compared to Q3 2022 for companies like BMW, Tesla, and Volkswagen.

Despite some production scalebacks by Ford and General Motors, these companies, along with others, remain dedicated to an electric future and expect to sell more EVs than ever. The growing consumer interest in EVs is also reflected in recent surveys by McKinsey, J.D. Power, and Consumer Reports, and echoed in Europe where the share of electric cars grew during lockdown months, showing an increasing intent to purchase EVs and a declining interest in gasoline vehicles.

Furthermore, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 introduces new tax credits, potentially making EVs more affordable than gasoline counterparts. Investments in charging infrastructure are also expected to increase, especially as EV adoption could drive a 38% rise in U.S. electricity demand, with over $21 billion allocated to boost public chargers from around 160,000 in 2023 to nearly 1 million by 2030.

The shift to EVs is crucial for reducing climate pollution, enhancing public health, and generating economic benefits and jobs, and by 2021 plug-in vehicles had already traveled 19 billion miles on electricity, underscoring real-world progress toward these goals. The current data and trends indicate a robust and positive future for EVs in the U.S., reinforcing the need for strong standards to further encourage investment and consumer confidence in electric vehicles.

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Britain Wind Generation Record underscores onshore and offshore wind momentum, as National Grid ESO reported 20.91 GW, boosting zero-carbon electricity, renewables share, and grid stability amid milder weather, falling gas prices, and net zero goals.

Key Points

The Britain wind generation record is 20.91 GW, set on 30 Dec, driven by onshore and offshore turbines.

✅ Set on 30 Dec 2022 with peak output of 20.91 GW.

✅ Zero-carbon sources hit 87.2% of grid supply.

✅ Driven by onshore and offshore wind; ESO reported stability.

Britain has set a new record for wind generation as power from onshore and offshore turbines helped boost clean energy supplies late last year.

National Grid’s electricity system operator (ESO), which handles Great Britain’s grid operations, said that a new record for wind generation was set on 30 December, when 20.91 gigawatts (GW) were produced by turbines.

This represented the third time Britain’s fleet of wind turbines set new generation records in 2022. In May, National Grid had to ask some turbines in the west of Scotland to shut down, as the network was unable to store such a large amount of electricity when a then record 19.9GW of power was produced – enough to boil 3.5m kettles.

The ESO said a new record was also set for the share of electricity on the grid coming from zero-carbon sources – renewables and nuclear – which supplied 87.2% of total power. These sources have accounted for about 55% to 59% of power over the past couple of years.

The surge in wind generation represents a remarkable reversal in fortunes as a cold snap that enveloped Britain and Europe quickly turned to milder weather.

Power prices had soared as the freezing weather forced Britons to increase their heating use, pushing up demand for energy despite high bills.

The cold weather came with a period of low wind, reducing the production of Britain’s windfarms to close to zero.

Emergency coal-fired power units at Drax in North Yorkshire were put on standby but ultimately not used, while gas-fired generation accounted for nearly 60% of the UK’s power output at times.

However, milder weather in the UK and Europe in recent days has led to a reduction in demand from consumers and a fall in wholesale gas prices. It has also reduced the risk of power cuts this winter, which National Grid had warned could be a possibility.

Wind generation is increasingly leading the power mix in Britain and is seen as a crucial part of Britain’s move towards net zero. The prime minister, Rishi Sunak, is expected to overturn a moratorium on new onshore wind projects with a consultation on the matter due to run until March.

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Chinese EV Makers in Europe target the EU market with electric SUVs, battery swapping, competitive pricing, and subsidies, led by NIO, Xpeng, MG, and BYD, starting in Norway amid Europe's zero-emissions push.

Key Points

Chinese EV makers expanding into EU markets with tech, pricing, and lean retail to gain share.

✅ Early launches in Norway leverage EV incentives

✅ Compete via battery swapping, OTA tech, and price

✅ Mix of importers, online sales, and lean dealerships

China's electric carmakers are darting into Europe, hoping to catch traditional auto giants cold and seize a slice of a market supercharged by the continent's EV transition towards zero emissions.

Nio Inc (NIO.N), among a small group of challengers, launches its ES8 electric SUV in Oslo on Thursday - the first foray outside China for a company that is virtually unheard of in Europe even though it's valued at about $57 billion.

Other brands unfamiliar to many Europeans that have started selling or plan to sell cars on the continent include Aiways, BYD's (002594.SZ) Tang, SAIC's (600104.SS) MG, Dongfeng's VOYAH, and Great Wall's (601633.SS) ORA.

Yet Europe, a crowded, competitive car market dominated by famous brands, has proved elusive for Chinese carmakers in the past. They made strategic slips and also contended with a perception that China, long associated with cheap mass-production, could not compete on quality.

Indeed, Nio Chief Executive William Li told Reuters he foresees a long road to success in a mature market where it is "very difficult to be successful".

Chinese carmakers may need up to a decade to "gain a firm foothold" in Europe, the billionaire entrepreneur said - a forecast echoed by He Xiaopeng, CEO of electric vehicle (EV) maker Xpeng (9868.HK) who told Reuters his company needs 10 years "to lay a good foundation" on the continent.

These new players, many of which have only ever made electric vehicles, believe they have a window of opportunity to finally crack the lucrative market.

While electric car sales in the European Union more than doubled last year and jumped 130% in the first half of this year, even as threats to the EV boom persist, traditional manufacturers are still gradually shifting their large vehicle ranges over to electric and have yet to flood the thirsty market with models.

"The market is not that busy yet, if you compare it with combustion-engine models where each of the major carmakers has a whole range of vehicles," said Alexander Klose, who heads the foreign operations of Chinese electric vehicle maker Aiways.

"That is where we think we have an opportunity," he added on a drive around Munich in a U5, a crossover SUV on sale in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and France, where new EV rules are aimed at discouraging purchases of Chinese models.

The U5 starts at 30,000 euros ($35,000) in Germany - below the average new car price and most local EV prices - before factoring in 9,000 euros in EV subsidies, though France's EV incentives have tightened for Chinese models - and comes in just four colours and two trim levels to minimize costs.

'GERMAN PEOPLE BUY GERMAN CARS'
As Chinese carmakers gear up to enter Europe, they are trying out different business models, from relying on importers, low-cost retail options or building up more traditional dealerships.

The new reality that top Western carmakers like BMW (BMWG.DE) and Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) now produce cars in technological powerhouse China, where the EV market is intensely competitive, has likely undermined past perceptions of low quality workmanship - though they can be hard to shake.

Antje Levers, a teacher who lives in western Germany near the Dutch border, and her husband owned a diesel Chevrolet Orlando but wanted a greener option. They bought an Aiways U5 last year after plenty of research to fend off criticism for not buying local, and loves its handling and low running costs.

She said people had told her: "You can't buy a Chinese car, they're plastic and cheap and do not support German jobs." But she feels that is no longer true in a global car industry where you find German auto parts in Chinese cars and vice versa.

"German people buy German cars, so to buy a Chinese car you need to have a little courage," the 47-year-old added. "Sometimes you just have to be open for new things."

NIO LANDS IN NORWAY WITH NOMI
Nio launches its ES8 electric SUV alongside a NIO House - part-showroom, part-cafe and workspace for customers in the capital of Norway, a country that's also the initial base for Xpeng.

Norwegian state support for EVs has put the country at the forefront of the shift to electric. It makes sense as a European entry point because customers are used to electric vehicles so only have to be sold on an unknown Chinese brand, said Christina Bu, secretary general of the Norwegian EV Association.

"If you go to another European country you may struggle to sell both," said Bu, adding that her organisation has talked extensively with a number of Chinese EV makers keen to learn market specifics and consumer culture before launching there.

She is uncertain, though, how consumers will react to Nio's approach of swapping out batteries for customers rather than stopping to charge them, a contrast to other EV battery strategies in the industry, or the carmaker's strategy of leasing rather than selling batteries to customers.

"But where the Chinese are really at the forefront is the technology," she added, referring in particular to Nomi, the digital assistant in the dashboard of Nio's cars.

NEWCOMERS' STRATEGIES DIVERGE
One size does not fit all. While Nio and Xpeng have been hiring staff building up their organizations in Norway, SAIC's MG works through a car importer to sell cars in a handful of European markets.

Aiways is trying an lower-cost approach to selling cars in Europe, though Klose says it varies by market.

In Germany, for instance, the company sells its cars through Euronics, an association of independent electronics retailers, rather than building traditional dealerships.

It aims to sell across the EU by next year and to enter the U.S. market by 2023, said Klose, a former Volvo and Ford executive.

Past failed attempts by Chinese carmakers to conquer Europe are unlikely to hurt Chinese EV makers today, as consumers have grown accustomed to electronics coming from China, he added.

Such failures included Brilliance in 2007, whose vehicle received one out of five stars in a German car crash test, damaging the brand.

"The fact there are more Chinese carmakers entering the market will also help us, as it will make Chinese brands more accepted by consumers," Klose said.

Selling cars to Europeans is a "tough business, especially if your product isn't well known," said Arnie Richters, chairman of Brussels-based industry group Platform for Electromobility.

"But if they bring a lot of innovation they have a lot of opportunity."

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World Bank Offshore Wind Investment drives renewables and clean energy in developing countries, funding floating turbines and shallow-water foundations to replace fossil fuels, expand grids, and scale climate finance across Latin America, Africa, and Asia.

Key Points

A World Bank program funding offshore wind to speed clean power, cut fossil fuels, and expand grids in emerging markets.

✅ US$80bn to 565 onshore wind projects since 1995

✅ Pilot funds offshore wind in Asia, Africa, Latin America

✅ Floating turbines and shallow-water foundations enable deep resources

Europe and the United States now accept onshore wind power as the cheapest way to generate electricity, and U.S. lessons from the U.K. are informing policy discussions. But this novel technology still needs subsidising before some developing countries will embrace it. Enter the World Bank.

A total of US$80 billion in subsidies from the Bank has gone over 25 years to 565 developing world onshore wind projects, to persuade governments to invest in renewables rather than rely on fossil fuels.

Central and Latin American countries have received the lions share of this investment, but the Asia Pacific region and Eastern Europe have also seen dozens of Bank-funded developments. Now the fastest-growing market is in Africa and the Middle East, where West African hydropower support can complement variable wind resources.

But while continuing to campaign for more onshore wind farms, the World Bank in 2019 started encouraging target countries to embrace offshore wind as well. This uses two approaches: turbines in shallow water, which are fixed to the seabed, and also a newer technology, involving floating turbines anchored by cables at greater depth.

The extraordinary potential for offshore wind, which is being commercially developed very fast in Europe, including the UK's offshore expansion, China and the U.S. offshore wind sector today as well, is now seen by the Bank as important for countries like Vietnam which could harness enough offshore wind power to provide all its electricity needs.

Other countries it has identified with enormous potential for offshore wind include Brazil, Indonesia, India, the Philippines, South Africa and Sri Lanka, all of them countries that need to keep building more power stations to connect every citizen to the national grid.

The Bank began investing in wind power in 1995, with its spending reaching billions of dollars annually in 2011. The biggest single recipient has been Brazil, receiving US$24.2 bn up to the end of 2018, 30 per cent of the total the Bank has invested worldwide.

Many private companies have partnered with the Bank to build the wind farms. The biggest single beneficiary is Enel, the Italian energy giant, which has received US$6.1 bn to complete projects in Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Romania, Morocco, Bulgaria, Peru, and Russia.

Among the countries now benefitting from the Banks continuing onshore wind programme are Egypt, Morocco, Senegal, Jordan, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Offshore wind now costs less than nuclear power, and global costs have fallen enough to compete in most countries with fossil fuels. Currently the fastest-growing industry in the world, it continued to grow despite Covid-19 across most markets.

Persistent coal demand

Particularly in Asia, some countries are continuing to burn large quantities of coal and are considering investing in yet more fossil fuel generation unless they can be persuaded that renewables are a better option, with an offshore wind $1 trillion outlook underscoring the scale.

Last year the World Bank began a pilot scheme to explore funding investment in offshore wind in these countries. Launching the scheme Riccardo Puliti, a senior director at the Bank, said: Offshore wind is a clean, reliable and secure source of energy with massive potential to transform the energy mix in countries that have great wind resources.

We have seen it work in Europe we can now make use of global experience to scale up offshore wind projects in emerging markets.

Using data from the Global Wind Atlas, the Bank calculated that developing countries with shallow waters like India, Turkey and Sri Lanka had huge potential with fixed turbines, while others the Philippines and South Africa, for example would need floating foundations to reach greater depths, up to 1,000 metres.

For countries like Vietnam, with a mix of shallow and deep water, wind power could solve their entire electricity needs. In theory offshore wind power could produce ten times the amount of electricity that the country currently gets from all its current power stations, the Bank says.

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Bioo Soil-Generated Electricity turns biological batteries and photosynthesis into renewable energy, powering IoT sensors for smart farming and lighting, using microbe-powered soil electrochemistry to cut battery waste, reduce costs, and scale sustainable agritech infrastructure.

Key Points

Bioo Soil-Generated Electricity powers IoT sensors and lighting using soil microbes, delivering clean renewable energy.

✅ Microbe-driven soil batteries replace disposable chemical cells

✅ Powers IoT agritech sensors for moisture, pH, and temperature

✅ Cuts maintenance and costs while enabling sustainable farming

SCENES shines a spotlight on youth around the world that are breaking down barriers and creating change. The character-driven short films will inspire and amaze, as these young change-makers tell their remarkable stories.

Pablo Vidarte is a born inventor. At the age of eight, he was programming video games. By 16, he was challenging NASA and competing with the Spanish army to enhance the efficiency of external combustion engines. "I wanted to perfect a system that NASA did in 2002 oriented to powering cars. I was able to increase that efficiency by 60 per cent, which was pretty cool," Pablo explained. Aged 18, he created his first company specialising in artificial intelligence. A year later, he founded Bioo, a revolutionary startup that generates electricity from plants' photosynthesis.

"Imagine, being in the middle of a park or a street and being able to touch a plant and turn on the lights of that specific area," Pablo told Scenes. "Imagine storing the memories of humanity itself in nature. Imagine storing voice messages in a library that is an open field where you can go and touch the plants and communicate and interact with them. That's what we do at Bioo," he added.

The creation of Bioo, however, was not a walk in the park. Pablo relied on nanotechnology engineers and biologists volunteering their time to turn his idea of biological batteries, inspired by biological design, into a reality. It took a year for a prototype to be created and an investor to come on board. Today, Bioo is turning plants into biological switches, generating renewable energy from nature, and transforming the environment.

"We realised that we were basically killing the planet, and then we invented things like solar panels and solutions like peer-to-peer energy that we're able to prevent things from getting worse, but the next step is to be able to reverse the whole equation to revive that planet that we're starting to lose," the 25-year-old explained.

Batteries creating electricity from soil
Bioo has designed biological batteries that generate electricity from the energy released when organic soil decomposes. Like traditional batteries, they have an anode and a cathode, but instead of using materials like lithium to power them, organic matter is used as fuel. When microorganisms break down the organic soil, electrons are released. These electrons are then transported from the anode to the cathode, and a current of electricity is created. The batteries come in the shape of a rectangular box and can be dug into any fertile soil. They produce up to 200Wh a year per square metre, and just as some tidal projects use underwater kites to harvest energy, these systems tap natural processes.

Bioo's batteries are limited to low-power applications, but they have grown in popularity and are set to transform the agriculture industry.

Cost savings for farmers
Farmers can monitor their crops using a large network of sensors. The sensors allow them to analyse growing conditions, such as soil moisture, PH levels and air temperature. Almost 90 per cent of the power used to run the sensors come from chemical batteries, which deplete, underscoring the renewable energy storage problem that new solutions target.

"The huge issue is that chemical batteries need to be replaced every single year. But the problem is that you literally need an army of people replacing batteries and recalibrating them," Pablo explains. "What we do, it's literally a solution that is hidden, and that's nourishing from the soil itself and has the same cost as using chemical batteries. So the investment is basically returned in the first year," Pablo added.

Bioo has partnered with Bayer, a leading agricultural producer, to trial their soil-powered sensors on 50 million hectares of agricultural land. If successful, the corporation could save €1.5 billion each year. Making it a game-changer for farmers around the world.

A BioTech World
In addition to agriculture, Bioo's batteries are now being installed in shopping centres, offices and hospitals to generate clean power for lighting, while other companies are using ocean and river power to diversify clean generation portfolios.

Pablo's goal is to create a more environmentally efficient world, so shares his technology with international tech companies as green hydrogen projects scale globally. "I wanted to do something that could really mean a change for our world. Our ambition right now is to create a biotech world, a world that is totally interconnected with nature," he said.

As Bioo continues to develop its technology, Pablo believes that soil-generated electricity will become a leader in the global energy market, aligning with progress toward cheap, abundant electricity becoming a reality worldwide.

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Canada Electricity Decarbonization Costs indicate challenging greenhouse gas reductions across a fragmented grid, with wind, solar, nuclear, and natural gas tradeoffs, significant GDP impacts, and Net Zero targets constrained by intermittency and limited interties.

Key Points

Costs to cut power CO2 via wind, solar, gas, and nuclear, considering grid limits, intermittency, and GDP impacts.

✅ Alberta model: eliminate coal; add wind, solar, gas; 26-40% CO2 cuts

✅ Nuclear option enables >75% cuts at higher but feasible system costs

✅ National costs 1-2% GDP; reserves, transmission, land, and waste not included

Along with many western developed countries, Canada has pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 40–45 percent by 2030 from 2005 emissions levels, and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

This is a huge challenge that, when considered on a global scale, will do little to stop climate change because emissions by developing countries are rising faster than emissions are being reduced in developed countries. Even so, the potential for achieving emissions reduction targets is extremely challenging as there are questions as to how and whether targets can be met and at what cost. Because electricity can be produced from any source of energy, including wind, solar, geothermal, tidal, and any combustible material, climate change policies have focused especially on nations’ electricity grids, and in Canada cleaning up electricity is viewed as critical to meeting climate pledges.

Canada’s electricity grid consists of ten separate provincial grids that are weakly connected by transmission interties to adjacent grids and, in some cases, to electricity systems in the United States. At times, these interties are helpful in addressing small imbalances between electricity supply and demand so as to prevent brownouts or even blackouts, and are a source of export revenue for provinces that have abundant hydroelectricity, such as British Columbia, Manitoba, and Quebec.

Due to generally low intertie capacities between provinces, electricity trade is generally a very small proportion of total generation, though electricity has been a national climate success in recent years. Essentially, provincial grids are stand alone, generating electricity to meet domestic demand (known as load) from the lowest cost local resources.

Because climate change policies have focused on electricity (viz., wind and solar energy, electric vehicles), and Canada will need more electricity to hit net-zero according to the IEA, this study employs information from the Alberta electricity system to provide an estimate of the possible costs of reducing national CO2 emissions related to power generation. The Alberta system serves as an excellent case study for examining the potential for eliminating fossil-fuel generation because of its large coal fleet, favourable solar irradiance, exceptional wind regimes, and potential for utilizing BC’s reservoirs for storage.

Using a model of the Alberta electricity system, we find that it is infeasible to rely solely on renewable sources of energy for 100 percent of power generation—the costs are prohibitive. Under perfect conditions, however, CO2 emissions from the Alberta grid can be reduced by 26 to 40 percent by eliminating coal and replacing it with renewable energy such as wind and solar, and gas, but by more than 75 percent if nuclear power is permitted. The associated costs are estimated to be some $1.4 billion per year to reduce emissions by at most 40 percent, or $1.9 billion annually to reduce emissions by 75 percent or more using nuclear power (an option not considered feasible at this time).

Based on cost estimates from Alberta, and Ontario’s experience with subsidies to renewable energy, and warnings that the switch from fossil fuels to electricity could cost about $1.4 trillion, the costs of relying on changes to electricity generation (essentially eliminating coal and replacing it with renewable energy sources and gas) to reduce national CO2 emissions by about 7.4 percent range from some $16.8 to $33.7 billion annually. This constitutes some 1–2 percent of Canada’s GDP.

The national estimates provided here are conservative, however. They are based on removing coal-fired power from power grids throughout Canada. We could not account for scenarios where the scale of intermittency turned out worse than indicated in our dataset—available wind and solar energy might be lower than indicated by the available data. To take this into account, a reserve market is required, but the costs of operating such a capacity market were not included in the estimates provided in this study. Also ignored are the costs associated with the value of land in other alternative uses, the need for added transmission lines, environmental and human health costs, and the life-cycle costs of using intermittent renewable sources of energy, including costs related to the disposal of hazardous wastes from solar panels and wind turbines.

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