Will Electric Vehicles Crash The Grid?

U.S. Renewable Energy Forecast 2024 will see wind and solar power surpass one-fourth of electricity generation, EIA projects, as coal declines, natural gas dips, and clean energy capacity, grid integration, and policy incentives expand.

Key Points

EIA outlook: renewables at 26% of U.S. power in 2024, led by wind and solar as coal declines and gas share dips.

✅ Wind and solar hit 18% combined, surpassing coal's 17%.

✅ Natural gas dips to 37% as demand rebounds modestly.

✅ Coal plant closures accelerate amid costs, emissions, and age.

Renewable energy is poised to reach a milestone, after a record 28% in April this year, as a new government report projects that wind, solar and other renewable sources will exceed one-fourth of the country’s electricity generation for the first time, in 2024.

This is one of the many takeaways from the federal government’s Short Term Energy Outlook, a monthly report whose new edition is the first to include a forecast for 2024. The report’s authors in the Energy Information Administration are expecting renewables to increase in market share, while natural gas and coal would both decrease.

From 2023 to 2024, renewables would rise from 24 percent to 26 percent of U.S. electricity generation; coal’s share would drop from 18 percent to 17 percent; gas would remain the leader but drop from 38 percent to 37 percent; and nuclear would be unchanged at 19 percent.

It was a big deal in 2020 when generation from renewables passed coal for the first time in 130 years over a full year. Coal made a comeback in 2021 and then retreated again in 2022 as renewables surpassed coal in generation. The ups and downs were largely the result of fluctuations in electricity demand during and then after the Covid-19 pandemic.

The new report indicates that coal doesn’t have another comeback in the works. This fuel, which was the country’s leading electricity source less than a decade ago, is declining as many coal-fired power plants are old and economically uncompetitive. Coal plants continue to close, and developers aren’t building new ones because of concerns about high costs and emissions, a trend underscored when renewables became the second-most prevalent source in 2020 across the U.S.

The growth in renewable energy is coming from wind and solar power, with wind responsible for about one-third of the growth and solar accounting for two-thirds, the report says, and combined output from wind and solar has already exceeded nuclear for the first time in the U.S. Other renewable sources, like hydropower and biomass, would be flat.

In fact, the growth of wind and solar is projected to be so swift that the combination of just those two sources would be 18 percent of the U.S. total by 2024, which would surpass coal’s 17 percent.

A key variable is overall electricity consumption. EIA is projecting that this will fall 1 percent in 2023 compared to 2022, due a mild summer. Then, consumption will increase 1 percent in 2024.

If demand was rising more, then natural gas power would likely gain market share because of gas power plants’ ability to vary their output as needed to respond to changes in demand.

I asked Eric Gimon, a senior fellow at the think tank Energy Innovation, what he thinks of these latest numbers.

He said wind and solar have gotten so big that it almost makes sense to track them as their own categories as opposed to lumping them into the larger category of renewables. He expects that the government will do this sometime soon.

Also, he thinks the projected increases for wind and solar, while substantial, are still smaller than those resources are likely to grow.

“My experience over the last 10 years is that the EIA tends to have flattish forecasts,” he said, meaning the federal office has underestimated the actual growth.

Some energy analysts have criticized EIA for being slow to recognize the growth of renewables. But much of the criticism is about the Annual Energy Outlook, which has numbers going out to mid-century, even as the U.S. is moving toward 30% from wind and solar by the end of the decade. The Short Term Energy Outlook, with numbers going one year into the future, has been more reliable.

Gimon said EIA is “kind of like your conservative uncle” in its forecasts, so it’s notable that the office expects to see a significant uptick in wind and solar.

Even so, he thinks the latest Short Term Energy Outlook should be read as the lower end of the range of potential increase for wind and solar.

For him to be right, the wind and solar industries will need to figure out solutions to the challenges they’ve been having in obtaining parts; they will need to make progress in dealing with local opposition to many projects and in having enough interstate power lines to deliver the electricity. And, new policies like the Inflation Reduction Act will need to have their desired effect of encouraging projects through the use of tax incentives.

It’s not much of a stretch to imagine that clean energy industries will make some progress on all of those fronts.

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EV Price Parity is nearing reality in Europe as subsidies, falling battery costs, higher energy density, and expanding charging infrastructure push Tesla, Volkswagen, and Renault to compete under EU CO2 regulations and fleet targets.

Key Points

EV price parity means EVs match ICE cars on total ownership cost as subsidies fade and batteries get cheaper.

✅ Battery pack costs trending toward $100/kWh

✅ EU CO2 rules and incentives accelerate adoption

✅ Charging networks reduce range anxiety and TCO

An electric Volkswagen ID.3 for the same price as a Golf. A Tesla Model 3 that costs as much as a BMW 3 Series. A Renault Zoe electric subcompact whose monthly lease payment might equal a nice dinner for two in Paris.

As car sales collapsed in Europe because of the pandemic, one category grew rapidly: electric vehicles, a shift that some analysts say could put most drivers within a decade on battery power. One reason is that purchase prices in Europe are coming tantalizingly close to the prices for cars with gasoline or diesel engines.

At the moment this near parity is possible only with government subsidies that, depending on the country, can cut more than $10,000 from the final price. Carmakers are offering deals on electric cars to meet stricter European Union regulations on carbon dioxide emissions. In Germany, an electric Renault Zoe can be leased for 139 euros a month, or $164.

Electric vehicles are not yet as popular in the United States, largely because government incentives are less generous, but an emerging American EV boom could change that trajectory. Battery-powered cars account for about 2 percent of new car sales in America, while in Europe the market share is approaching 5 percent. Including hybrids, the share rises to nearly 9 percent in Europe, according to Matthias Schmidt, an independent analyst in Berlin.

As electric cars become more mainstream, the automobile industry is rapidly approaching the tipping point, an inflection point for the market, when, even without subsidies, it will be as cheap, and maybe cheaper, to own a plug-in vehicle than one that burns fossil fuels. The carmaker that reaches price parity first may be positioned to dominate the segment.

A few years ago, industry experts expected 2025 would be the turning point. But technology is advancing faster than expected, and could be poised for a quantum leap. Elon Musk is expected to announce a breakthrough at Tesla’s “Battery Day” event on Tuesday that would allow electric cars to travel significantly farther without adding weight.

The balance of power in the auto industry may depend on which carmaker, electronics company or start-up succeeds in squeezing the most power per pound into a battery, what’s known as energy density. A battery with high energy density is inherently cheaper because it requires fewer raw materials and less weight to deliver the same range.

“We’re seeing energy density increase faster than ever before,” said Milan Thakore, a senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultant which recently pushed its prediction of the tipping point ahead by a year, to 2024.

Some industry experts are even more bullish. Hui Zhang, managing director in Germany of NIO, a Chinese electric carmaker with global ambitions, said he thought parity could be achieved in 2023.

Venkat Viswanathan, an associate professor at Carnegie Mellon University who closely follows the industry, is more cautious, though EV revolution skeptics argue the revolution is overstated. But he said: “We are already on a very accelerated timeline. If you asked anyone in 2010 whether we would have price parity by 2025, they would have said that was impossible.”

This transition will probably arrive at different times for different segments of the market. High-end electric vehicles are pretty close to parity already. The Tesla Model 3 and the gas-powered BMW 3 Series both sell for about $41,000 in the United States.

A Tesla may even be cheaper to own than a BMW because it never needs oil changes or new spark plugs and electricity is cheaper, per mile, than gasoline. Which car a customer chooses is more a matter of preference, particularly whether an owner is willing to trade the convenience of gas stations for charging points that take more time. (On the other hand, owners can also charge their Teslas at home.)

Consumers tend to focus on sticker prices, and it will take longer before unsubsidized electric cars cost as little to drive off a dealer’s lot as an economy car, even for shoppers weighing whether it’s the right time to buy an electric car now.

The race to build a better battery
The holy grail in the electric vehicle industry has been to push the cost of battery packs — the rechargeable system that stores energy — below $100 per kilowatt-hour, the standard measure of battery power. That is the point, more or less, at which propelling a vehicle with electricity will be as cheap as it is with gasoline.

Current battery packs cost around $150 to $200 per kilowatt-hour, depending on the technology. That means a battery pack costs around $20,000. But the price has dropped 80 percent since 2008, according to the United States Department of Energy.

All electric cars use lithium-ion batteries, but there are many variations on that basic chemistry, and intense competition to find the combination of materials that stores the most power for the least weight.

For traditional car companies, this is all very scary. Internal combustion engines have not changed fundamentally for decades, but battery technology is still wide open. There are even geopolitical implications. China is pouring resources into battery research, seeing the shift to electric power as a chance for companies like NIO to make their move on Europe and someday, American, markets. In less than a decade, the Chinese battery maker CATL has become one of the world’s biggest manufacturers.

Everyone is trying to catch Tesla
The California company has been selling electric cars since 2008 and can draw on years of data to calculate how far it can safely push a battery’s performance without causing overheating or excessive wear. That knowledge allows Tesla to offer better range than competitors who have to be more careful. Tesla’s four models are the only widely available electric cars that can go more than 300 miles on a charge, according to Kelley Blue Book.

On Tuesday, Mr. Musk could unveil a technology offering 50 percent more storage per pound at lower cost, according to analysts at the Swiss bank UBS. If so, competitors could recede even further in the rearview mirror.

“The traditional car industry is still behind,” said Peter Carlsson, who ran Tesla’s supplier network in the company’s early days and is now chief executive of Northvolt, a new Swedish company that has contracts to manufacture batteries for Volkswagen and BMW.

“But,” Mr. Carlsson said, “there is a massive amount of resources going into the race to beat Tesla. A number, not all, of the big carmakers are going to catch up.”

The traditional carmakers’ best hope to avoid oblivion will be to exploit their expertise in supply chains and mass production to churn out economical electrical cars by the millions.

A key test of the traditional automakers’ ability to survive will be Volkswagen’s new battery-powered ID.3, which will start at under €30,000, or $35,000, after subsidies and is arriving at European dealerships now. By using its global manufacturing and sales network, Volkswagen hopes to sell electric vehicles by the millions within a few years. It plans to begin selling the ID.4, an electric sport utility vehicle, in the United States next year. (ID stands for “intelligent design.”)

But there is a steep learning curve.

“We have been mass-producing internal combustion vehicles since Henry Ford. We don’t have that for battery vehicles. It’s a very new technology,” said Jürgen Fleischer, a professor at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in southwestern Germany whose research focuses on battery manufacturing. “The question will be how fast can we can get through this learning curve?”

It’s not just about the batteries
Peter Rawlinson, who led design of the Tesla Model S and is now chief executive of the electric car start-up Lucid, likes to wow audiences by showing up at events dragging a rolling carry-on bag containing the company’s supercompact drive unit. Electric motor, transmission and differential in one, the unit saves space and, along with hundreds of other weight-saving tweaks, will allow the company’s Lucid Air luxury car — which the company unveiled on Sept. 9 — to travel more than 400 miles on a charge, Mr. Rawlinson said.

His point is that designers should focus on things like aerodynamic drag and weight to avoid the need for big, expensive batteries in the first place. “There is kind of a myopia,” Mr. Rawlinson said. “Everyone is talking about batteries. It’s the whole system.”

“We have been mass-producing internal combustion vehicles since Henry Ford,” said Jürgen Fleischer, a professor at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. “We don’t have that for battery vehicles.”

A charger on every corner would help
When Jana Höffner bought an electric Renault Zoe in 2013, driving anywhere outside her home in Stuttgart was an adventure. Charging stations were rare, and didn’t always work. Ms. Höffner drove her Zoe to places like Norway or Sicily just to see if she could make it without having to call for a tow.

Ms. Höffner, who works in online communication for the state of Baden-Württemberg, has since traded up to a Tesla Model 3 equipped with software that guides her to the company’s own network of chargers, which can fill the battery to 80 percent capacity in about half an hour. She sounds almost nostalgic when she remembers how hard it was to recharge back in the electric-vehicle stone age.

“Now, it’s boring,” Ms. Höffner said. “You say where you want to go and the car takes care of the rest.”

The European Union has nearly 200,000 chargers, far short of the three million that will be needed when electric cars become ubiquitous, according to Transport & Environment, an advocacy group. The United States remains far behind, with less than half as many as Europe, even as charging networks jostle under federal electrification efforts.

But the European network is already dense enough that owning and charging an electric car is “no problem,” said Ms. Höffner, who can’t charge at home and depends on public infrastructure.
 

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Clean Energy Transition spans hydrogen strategies, offshore wind and undersea cables, decarbonization pledges, and net-zero targets, including green vs blue hydrogen, carbon capture, sustainable aviation fuel, forest conservation, and wetland protection in Canadian policy.

Key Points

A shift to low-carbon systems via hydrogen, renewables, net-zero policies, carbon capture, and conservation.

✅ Hydrogen pathways: green vs blue with carbon capture

✅ Grid expansion: offshore wind and undersea cables in Japan

✅ Policy and corporate moves: net-zero, SAF, forests, wetlands

The Canadian federal government is set to sign a new agreement with Germany to strategize on a “clean-energy transition,” with clean hydrogen in Canada expected to be a key player the Globe and Mail reports.

“Germany is probably the world’s most interesting market for hydrogen right now, and Canada is potentially a very big power in its production,” Sabine Sparwasser, Germany’s ambassador to Canada, said in an interview.

However, some friction is expected as Natural Resources Minister Seamus O’Regan has been endorsing “blue” hydrogen, while Germany has been more interested in “green” hydrogen. The former hydrogen is produced from natural gas or other fossil fuels, while simultaneously “using carbon-capture technology to minimize emissions from the process.” In contrast, “green” hydrogen, is manufactured from non-fossil fuel sources, and cleaning up Canada's electricity is critical to meeting climate pledges.

“How the focus on blue hydrogen will be aligned with Canada’s goal of reaching climate neutrality by 2050 is not spelled out in detail,” says an executive summary of the report by the Berlin-based think tank and consultancy Adelphi. “As a result, the strategy seems to be more of a vision for the future of those provinces with large fossil fuel resources.”

According to an IEA report Canada will need more electricity to hit net-zero, underscoring the strategy questions.

Internationally

Japan is in talks to develop undersea cables that would bring offshore wind energy to Tokyo and the Kansai region, as the country hopes to more than quadrable its wind capacity from 10 gigawatts in 2030 to 45 gigawatts in 2040. The construction of the cables would cost about US$9.2 billion.

In Western Canada, bridging the electricity gap between Alberta and B.C. makes similar climate sense, proponents argue.

Approximately 80 per cent of that offshore power is expected to be built in Hokkaido, Tohoku, and Kyushu regions. The project is part of the country’s pledge to achieve decarbonization by 2050, according to BNN Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, Russia is falling behind in the world’s transition to clean energy.

“What’s the alternative? Russia can’t be an exporter of clean energy, that path isn’t open for us,” says Konstantin Simonov, director of the National Energy Security Fund, a Moscow consultancy whose clients include major oil and gas companies. “We can’t just swap fossil fuel production for clean energy production, because we don’t have any technology of our own.” Ultimately, natural gas will always be cheaper than renewable energy in Russia, Simonov added. This story also from BNN Bloomberg.

Finally, New Zealand’s Tilt Renewables Ltd., an electricity company, has announced it would be acquired by Powering Australian Renewables (PowAR) for NZ$2.94 billion (US$2.10 billion). PowAR is Australia’s largest owner of wind and solar energy, and the deal will give the energy giant access to Tilt’s 20 wind farms. Reuters has the story.

In Canada  

Air Canada has unveiled plans to fight climate change. Specifically, the airlines giant has committed to reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) by 20 per cent from flights by 2030, investing $50 million in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and ensuring net-zero emissions by 2050.

In other news, B.C. is facing mounting pressure to abstain from logging “old growth forests” while the government transitions to more sustainable forestry policies. A report titled A New Future for Old Forests called on the provincial government to act within six months to protect such forests in April 2020.

The province's Site C mega dam is billions over budget but will go ahead, the premier said, highlighting the energy sector's complexity.

Last September, the province announced, “it would temporarily defer old growth harvesting in close to 353,000 hectares in nine different areas.” The B.C. government will hold consultations with First Nations and other forestry stakeholders “to determine the next areas where harvesting may be deferred,” according to Forests Minister Katrine Conroy. The Canadian Press has more.

Separately, LNG powered with electricity could be a boon for B.C.'s independent power producers, analysts say.

Finally, Pickering Developments Inc. has come forward saying it will not “alter or remove the wetland” that was meant to house an Amazon facility, according to CBC News.

The announcement comes after CBC News’s previously reported that the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) was pressured to issue a construction permit to Pickering Developments Inc. by Doug Ford’s provincial government. However, on March 12, an official with Amazon Canada told CBC News that the company no longer wished to build a warehouse on the site.

“In light of a recent announcement that a new fulfilment centre will no longer be located on this property, this voluntary undertaking ensures that no work, legally authorized by that permit, will occur,” Pickering Development Inc. said in a statement provided to CBC Toronto.

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Spain has broken its reliance on fossil gas as soaring wind and solar energy drive Europe’s lowest wholesale electricity prices, reducing emissions, stabilizing the grid, and advancing renewable power, energy independence, and clean transition goals across the EU.

How Has Spain Broken the Gas Link with Wind and Solar??

Spain has broken the link between gas and power prices by rapidly expanding wind and solar generation, which now supplies nearly half its electricity, cutting fossil fuel influence by 75% since 2019 and reducing power costs 32% below the EU average.

✅ Wind and solar cut fossil influence by 75% since 2019

✅ Power prices 32% below EU average in 2025

✅ Renewables meet nearly half of national electricity demand

Spain has emerged as one of Europe’s most affordable electricity markets, largely due to its rapid expansion of wind and solar power. By decoupling its wholesale electricity prices from volatile fossil gas and coal, Spain has achieved a 32 percent lower average wholesale price than the EU average in the first half of 2025. This remarkable shift marks a dramatic turnaround from 2019, when Spain had some of the highest power prices in Europe.

According to new data, the influence of fossil fuels on Spain’s electricity prices has fallen by 75 percent since 2019, mirroring how renewables have surpassed fossil fuels in Europe over the same period, dropping from 75 percent of hours tied to gas costs to just 19 percent in early 2025. “Spain has broken the ruinous link between power prices and volatile fossil fuels, something its European neighbours are desperate to do,” said Dr. Chris Rosslowe, Senior Energy Analyst at Ember.

The change is driven by a surge in renewable generation. Between 2019 and mid-2025, Spain added more than 40 gigawatts of new solar and wind capacity—second only to Germany, whose power market is twice the size. Wind and solar now meet nearly half (46 percent) of Spain’s electricity demand, compared with 27 percent six years ago. As a result, fossil generation has fallen to 20 percent of total demand, well below the levels seen in other major economies such as Germany (41 percent) and Italy (43 percent).

This renewable growth has also cut Spain’s dependence on imported fuels. In the past five years, new solar and wind plants have avoided 26 billion cubic metres of gas imports, saving €13.5 billion—five times the amount the country invested in transmission infrastructure over the same period. The Central Bank of Spain estimated that wholesale electricity prices would have been 40 percent higher in 2024 if renewables had not displaced fossil generation, and neighboring France has seen negative prices during periods of renewable surplus.

August 2025 marked a historic milestone: Spain recorded a full month without coal-fired generation for the first time. A decade earlier, coal accounted for a quarter of the nation’s electricity supply. Gas use has also declined steadily, from 26% of demand in 2019 to 19% this year.

However, the system still faces challenges. Following the April 28th Iberian blackout, Spain has relied more heavily on gas-fired plants to stabilize the grid. These services—such as voltage control and balancing—have proven to be expensive, with costs doubling since the blackout and accounting for 57 percent of the average electricity price in May 2025, up from 14 percent the previous year. Curtailment of renewables has also tripled, reaching 7.2 percent of generation between May and July.

Despite being Europe’s fourth-largest electricity market, Spain ranks only 13th in battery storage capacity, underscoring the need for further investment in clean flexibility solutions, such as grid-scale batteries to provide flexibility and stronger interconnections. Post-blackout reforms aim to address this weakness and ensure the gains from renewable integration are not lost.

“Spain risks sliding back into costly gas reliance amid post-blackout fears,” warned Rosslowe. “Boosting grids and batteries will help Spain break free from fossil dependency for good.”

With record-low electricity prices and one of the fastest decoupling rates in Europe, Spain’s experience demonstrates how large-scale wind and solar adoption can reshape energy economics—and offers a roadmap for other nations seeking to escape the volatility of fossil fuels.

Ford Oakville Electric Vehicle Complex will anchor EV production in Ontario, adding a battery plant, retooling lines, and assembly capacity for passenger models targeting the North American market and Canada's zero-emission mandates.

Key Points

A retooled Ontario hub for passenger EV production, featuring on-site battery assembly and modernized lines.

✅ Retooling begins Q2 2024; EV production slated for 2025.

✅ New 407,000 sq ft battery plant for pack assembly.

✅ First full-line passenger EV production in Canada.

Ford Motor Co. has revealed some details of its plan to spend $1.8 billion on its Oakville Assembly Complex to turn it into an electric vehicle production hub, a government-backed Oakville EV deal, in the latest commitment by an automaker transitioning towards an electric future.

The automaker said Tuesday that it will start retooling the Ontario complex in the second quarter of 2024, bolstering Ontario's EV jobs boom, and begin producing electric vehicles in 2025.

The transformation of the Oakville site, to be renamed the Oakville Electric Vehicle Complex, will include a new 407,000 square-foot battery plant, similar to Honda's Ontario battery investment efforts, where parts produced at Ford's U.S. operations will be assembled into battery packs.

General Motors is already producing electric delivery vans in Canada, and its Ontario EV plant plans continue to expand, but Ford says this is the first time a full-line automaker has announced plans to produce passenger EVs in Canada for the North American market.

GM said in February it plans to build motors for electric vehicles at its St. Catharines, Ont. propulsion plant, aligning with the Niagara Region battery investment now underway. The motors will go into its BrightDrop electric delivery vans, which it produces in part at its Ingersoll, Ont. plant, as well as its electric pickup trucks, producing enough at the plant for 400,000 vehicles a year.

Ford's announcement is the latest commitment by an automaker transitioning towards an electric future, part of Canada's EV assembly push that is accelerating.

"Canada and the Oakville complex will play a vital role in our Ford Plus transformation," said chief executive Jim Farley in a statement.

The company has committed to invest over US$50 billion in electric vehicles globally and has a target of producing two million EVs a year by the end of 2026 as part of its Ford Plus growth plan, reflecting an EV market inflection point worldwide.

Ford didn't specify in the release which models it planned to build at the Oakville complex, which currently produces the Ford Edge and Lincoln Nautilus.

The company's spending plans were first announced in 2020 as part of union negotiations, with workers seeking long-term production commitments and the Detroit Three automakers eventually agreeing to invest in Canadian operations in concert with spending agreements with the Ontario and federal governments.

The two governments agreed to provide $295 million each in funding to secure the Ford investment.

"The partnership between Ford and Canada helps to position us as a global leader in the EV supply chain for decades to come," said Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne in Ford's news release.

Funding help comes as the federal government moves to require that at least 20 percent of new vehicles sold in Canada will be zero-emission by 2026, at least 60 per cent by 2030, and 100 per cent by 2035.

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Germany Solar Boom is accelerating amid energy security pressures, with photovoltaic capacity surging as renewables displace gas. Policy incentives, grid upgrades, and storage, plus agrivoltaics and rooftop systems, position solar as cornerstone of decarbonization.

Key Points

Germany Solar Boom is rapid PV growth enhancing energy security, cutting emissions, and expanding domestic, low-carbon electricity.

✅ Targets 250 GW PV by 2032 to meet rising electricity demand.

✅ Rooftop, agrivoltaics, and BIPV reduce land use and grid stress.

✅ Diversifies supply chains beyond China; boosts storage and flexibility.

Europe is in crisis mode. Climate change, increasing demand for energy, the war in Ukraine and Russia's subsequent throttling of oil and gas deliveries have pushed the continent into a new era.

Germany has been trapped in a corner. The country relies heavily on cheap imported natural gas to run its industries. Some power plants also use gas to produce electricity. Finding enough substitutes quickly is nearly impossible.

Ideas to prevent a looming power crisis in Germany have ranged from reducing demand to keeping nuclear power plants online past their official closing date at the end of the year. Large wind turbines are doing their part, but many people don't want them in their backyard.

Green activists have long believed renewable energies are the answer to keeping the lights on. But building up these capabilities takes time. Now many experts once again see solar power as a shining light at the end of the tunnel, as global renewables set fresh records worldwide. Some say a solar boom is in the making.

Before the war in Ukraine put energy security at the forefront, the new German government had already pledged that renewable sources — wind and solar — would make up 80% of electricity production by 2030 instead of 42% today. By 2035, electricity generation should be carbon neutral.

It is an ambitious plan, but the country seems to be on its way. July was the third month in a row when solar power output soared to a record level, trade publication pv magazine reported, and clean energy's share reached about 50% in Germany according to recent assessments. For the month, photovoltaic (PV) systems generated 8.23 ​​terawatt hours of power, around a fifth of net electricity production. They were only behind lignite-fired power plants, which brought in nearly 22% of net production. 

Solar cells hanging on a modular solar house during the Solar Decathlon Europe in Wuppertal, Germany
Solar panels can come in many different shapes and sizes, and be used in many different ways

Last year, Germany added more than 5 gigawatts of solar power capacity, 10% more than in 2020. That took the total solar power capacity to 59 gigawatts, overtaking installed onshore wind power capacity in Germany, pv magazine said in January. Last year's solar production was about 9% of gross electricity consumption, according to Harry Wirth, who is head of photovoltaic modules and power plant research at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems in Freiburg.

"For 2032, the government target is around 250 gigawatts of solar energy. According to their estimates, electricity consumption will increase to 715 terawatt hours by 2030," Wirth told DW. A different study by consultancy McKinsey says this is the lower limit. "So if we assume 730 terawatt hours for 2032, we would be at around 30% photovoltaic electricity in gross electricity consumption," he added. 

The energy expert also envisions great potential to install more solar panels without taking up valuable land. Besides adding them on top of parking garages or buildings, photovoltaic parts can be integrated into the exterior of buildings or even on the outside of e-vehicles. This would "not only produce electricity on surfaces already in use, but it would also create synergies in its own application," said Wirth.

Foreign investment in German solar
It is not just researchers that are taking note. Big businesses are stepping in too. In July, Portuguese clean energy firm EDP Renovaveis (EDPR) announced it had agreed to take a 70% interest in Germany's Kronos Solar Projects, a solar developer, for €250 million ($254 million).

The Munich-based company has a portfolio of 9.4 gigawatts of solar projects in different stages of development in Germany, France, the Netherlands and the UK, according to the press release announcing the purchase. Germany represents close to 50% of the acquired solar portfolio.

EDPR, which claims to be the fourth-largest renewable energy producer worldwide, said it generated 17.8 terawatt hours of clean energy in the first half of 2022.

Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade, chief executive of EDPR and its parent EDP, said they have great expectations from Germany in particular as "it is a key market in Europe with reinforced renewable growth targets." 

Fabian Karthaus is one of the first farmers in Germany to grow raspberries and blueberries under photovoltaic panels. His solar field near the city of Paderborn in northwestern Germany is 0.4 hectares (about 1 acre), but he would like to expand it to 10. He could then generate enough electricity for around 4,000 households — and provide more berries for supermarkets.

Germany was once a leader in solar power. For many years the country enjoyed a large share of the world's total solar capacities. A lot of that early success had to do with innovative government support. That support, however, proved too successful for some as a fall in wholesale electricity prices in Northern Europe hurt the profits of power companies, leading to calls for a change in the rules.

Updated regulations, and changes to the Renewable Energy Sources Act that reduced feed-in tariffs slowed things down. Feed-in tariffs usually grant long-term grid access and above-market price guarantees in an effort to support fledgling industries.

With less direct financial incentives, the industry was neglected leaving it open for competitors. The pace of solar infrastructure growth has also been hampered by issues of red tape, supply chain backlogs, a lack of skilled technicians and, despite solar-plus-storage now undercutting conventional power in Germany, a shortage of storage for electricity produced when it is not needed.

Now the war in Ukraine and Europe's dependency on Russia is refocusing efforts and "will strengthen the determination for an ambitious PV expansion," said Wirth. But the biggest challenge to the region's solar industry remains China.

Public buildings can play a big role, not just because of their size, but because the government is in charge of them

An overreliance on China
China took an early interest in photovoltaic technology and soon galloped past countries like the US, Japan and Germany thanks to huge state subsidies that manufacturers enjoyed. Today, it has become the place to go for all things solar, even as Europe turns to US solar equipment suppliers to diversify procurement.

A new report from the International Energy Agency puts it into numbers. "China has invested over $50 billion in new PV supply capacity — 10 times more than Europe — and created more than 300,000 manufacturing jobs across the solar PV value chain since 2011."

Today China has over 80% of all solar panel manufacturing capacity and is home to the top-10 suppliers of photovoltaic manufacturing equipment. Such a high concentration has led to some incredible realities, like the fact that "one out of every seven panels produced worldwide is manufactured by a single facility," according to the report.

These economies of scale have brought down costs, and the country can make solar components 35% cheaper than in Europe. This gives China outsized power and makes the industry susceptible to supply chain bottlenecks. To diversify the industry and get back some of this market, Europe needs to invest in innovation and make solar growth a top priority.

Germany has several high-tech photovoltaic manufacturers and research institutes. But it only has one manufacturer of solar cells specializing in high-performance heterojunction technology, says Wirth. Yet even though the European photovoltaic industry is fragmented and not what it once was, he is still counting on big demand for solar technology in the foreseeable future, with markets like Poland accelerating adoption across the region. 

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