Will Electric Vehicles Crash The Grid?

100% Renewable Energy Transition unites solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal, and bioenergy with storage, smart grids, and sector coupling, delivering decarbonization, energy security, and lower LCOE amid post-Fukushima policy shifts and climate resilience goals.

Key Points

It is a pathway using all renewables plus storage and grids to fully decarbonize power, heat, transport, and industry.

✅ Integrates solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and bioenergy

✅ Uses storage, smart grids, and sector coupling for reliability

✅ Requires enabling policies, finance, and rapid deployment

Renewable energy organizations representing different spheres of the renewable energy community have gathered on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima nuclear accident to emphasize that renewable energies are not only available in abundance, with global renewable power on course to shatter more records, but ready to deliver a renewable world.

The combination of all renewable technologies, be it bioenergy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy, solar energy or wind power, in particular in combination with storage options, can satisfy all energy needs of mankind, be it for power, heating/cooling, transportation, or industrial processes.

Renewables have seen tremendous growth rates and cost reduction over the past two decades, but there are still many barriers that need to be addressed for a faster renewable energy deployment to eventually achieve global 100% renewable energy, as outlined in an on the road to 100% renewables initiative that charts the path. It is up to political decision-makers to create the legislative and regulatory conditions so that the renewable energy community can act as fast as needed.

Such rapid switch towards renewables is not only a must in light of nuclear risks and the growing threats of climate change, but also the necessary response to the current pandemic situation. And it will allow those hundreds of millions of humans in unserved areas to get for the first time ever access to modern energy services, as noted by a new IRENA report that details how renewables can decarbonise the energy sector and improve lives.

Speakers from the renewable energy community presented today in a joint webinar that a renewable future is a realistic vision, representing:

Energy Watch Group, Global100RE Platform, Global100RE Strategy Group, International Geothermal Association, ISEP Japan, REN Alliance, World Bioenergy Association, World Wind Energy Association.

Dr. Tetsunari Iida, Director of the Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies ISEP Japan:

Ten years ago, on 11 March 2021, the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident occurred. It is a "coincidence of global history" that it now coincides with the starting point of the 100% renewable energy initiative that is accelerating around the world.

The world has changed dramatically since 311. Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Taiwan, South Korea, China and many other countries were all shocked by 311 and shifted their focus from nuclear power to renewable energy, and in the U.S. clean energy industries are setting sights on market majority to accelerate this trend. The next ten years will be the decade in which this perception will rapidly become the "new reality". 311 was the "starting point" for a structural energy shift in world history.

Hans-Josef Fell, former MP, President of the Energy Watch Group and co-initiator of the Global100RE Strategy Group:

The disasters of Fukushima and Chernobyl are urging the entire world to quickly end the use of atomic energy, and many call for a fossil fuel lockdown to catalyze a climate revolution alongside the transition. Contrary to what is often claimed, nuclear energy cannot make a contribution to climate protection, but only creates immense problems with toxic radioactivity emissions, nuclear waste, atomic bomb material and the dangers of a nuclear catastrophe. In contrast, 100% renewable energies until 2030 can help achieve climate protection and a simultaneous nuclear phase-out, according to a recently published statement by a world-leading group of energy researchers from the USA, EU and Australia.

Their research suggests that a 100% renewable energy supply, including storage systems, can provide full energy security for all of mankind by 2030 and will even be cheaper than the existing nuclear and fossil energy supply, and with over 30% of global electricity already from renewables, momentum is strong. The only requirement for implementation is the right decisions taken by decision makers both in governments and industry. All technical and economic prerequisites for a disruptive conversion of the global energy supply to 100% renewable energies are already in place.

Hon. Peter Rae AO, President of WWEA and Honorary Chairman of the REN Alliance:

40 years ago, the idea of developing nuclear power appealed to me as a non-polluting method of generating electricity. So I studied it. How to deal with waste and how to ensure it would not create a danger to life. Along came Chernobyl and other accidents. Storage of waste was leaving dangerous hiding places while some waste was alleged to be dumped at sea. I became more and more concerned. There were demonstrations that the existing methods were dangerous and required very strict construction and operational tolerances - up went the cost. Long delays and huge cost increases. I had visited nuclear power stations and talked to expert proponents in UK, France, US, Taiwan and Australia, and debates such as New Zealand's electricity future reflect similar concerns. The more I did the more certain I became that it was not the way to go. Then Fukushima put the dangers and cost beyond doubt.

Let's get on with the rollover to renewables.

Dr. Marit Brommer, Executive Director of the International Geothermal Association IGA:

The IGA is proud to work with all renewable energy associations to continuously provide a unified voice to a cleaner energy future. The Geothermal sector is proven to be a partner of choice for many locations in the world serving baseload power and clean heat to customers. We are particularly interested in the increased attention system integration gets, which underpins the importance of all renewables coming together at events such as the webinar organised by the WWEA.

Christian Rakos, President of the World Bioenergy Association:

The IPCC has emphasized the important role of sustainable bioenergy for climate protection. Recent advances in technology allow us to use feedstock from forestry, wood processing and agricultural production in an efficient and clean way. Today, bioenergy already contributes 12 - 13% to global final energy demand. Importantly, contribution from bioenergy is more than 5 times as much as nuclear energy worldwide. Together with other renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind, geothermal and hydropower, bioenergy can increase the contribution in a substantial way to meet the energy demands of all end use sectors and meet the international energy and climate goals.

Stefan Gsanger, Secretary General of the World Wind Energy Association and Co-chair of the Global100RE Platform:

The switch to a renewable energy future requires new political and economic thinking: from centralised structures with few large actors towards decentralised, participatory models with millions of communities and citizens playing an active role, not only as consumers but also as producers of energy. To make this new paradigm the predominant energy paradigm is the true challenge of the energy transformation which we as the world community are facing. If we manage this shift well and on time, billions of people across the globe, in industrialised and developing countries alike, will benefit and will face a bright future.

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Canada ZEV Availability Standard sets EV sales targets and zero-emission mandates, using compliance credits, early credits, and charging infrastructure investments under CEPA to accelerate affordable ZEV supply and meet 2035 net-zero goals.

Key Points

A federal ZEV policy setting 2026-2035 sales targets, using tradable credits and infrastructure incentives under CEPA.

✅ Applies to automakers; compliance via tradable ZEV credits under CEPA.

✅ Targets: 20% by 2026, 60% by 2030, 100% by 2035.

✅ Early credits up to 10% for 2026; charging investments earn credits.

Canadian Automobile manufacturers are on the brink of significant changes as Ottawa prepares to introduce its long-awaited electric vehicle regulations. A reliable source within the government says final regulations are aimed at ensuring that all new passenger vehicles sold in Canada by 2035 are zero-emission vehicles, a goal some critics question through analyses of the 2035 EV mandate in Canada.

These regulations, known as the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, are designed to encourage automakers to produce more affordable zero-emission vehicles to meet the increasing demand. One of the key concerns for Canada is the potential dominance of zero-emission vehicle supply by other countries, particularly the United States, where several states have already implemented sales targets for such vehicles, and new EPA emission limits are expected to boost EV sales nationwide as well.

It's important to note that these regulations will apply primarily to automakers, rather than dealerships. Under this legislation, manufacturers will be required to accumulate sufficient credits to demonstrate their compliance with the established targets.

Automakers will be able to earn credits based on their sales of low- and no-emissions vehicles. The number of credits earned will depend on how close these vehicles come to meeting a zero-emissions standard. Additionally, manufacturers could earn early credits, amounting to a maximum of 10 percent of their total compliance requirements for 2026, by introducing more electric vehicles to the market ahead of schedule, even amid recent EV shortages and wait times reported across Canada.

Automakers can also increase their credit balance by contributing to the development of electric vehicle charging infrastructure, recognizing that fossil fuels still powered part of Canada's grid in 2019 and that charging availability remains a key enabler. In cases where companies exceed or fall short of their compliance targets, they will have the option to buy or sell credits to other manufacturers or use previously accumulated credits.

Further details regarding these regulations, which will be enacted under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, are set to be unveiled soon and will intersect with provincial approaches such as Quebec's, where experts have questioned the push for EV dominance as policies evolve.

These regulations will become effective starting with the model year 2026, and sales targets will progressively rise each year until 2035. The federal government's ambitious EV goals are to have 20 percent of all vehicles sold in Canada be zero-emission vehicles by 2026, with that figure increasing to 60 percent by 2030 and reaching 100 percent by 2035.

According to a government analysis conducted in 2022, the anticipated total cost to consumers for zero-emission vehicles and chargers over 25 years is estimated at $24.5 billion, though cost remains a primary barrier for many Canadians considering an EV. However, it is projected that Canadians will save approximately $33.9 billion in net energy costs over the same period. Please note that these estimates are part of a draft and may be subject to change upon the government's release of its final analysis.

In terms of environmental impact, these regulations are expected to prevent the release of an estimated 430 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions, according to regulatory analysis. Environmental Defence, a Canadian environmental think-tank, has estimated that the policy would also result in a substantial reduction in gasoline consumption, equivalent to filling approximately 73,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools with gasoline.

Nate Wallace, the program manager for clean transportation at Environmental Defence, emphasized the significance of these regulations, stating, "2035 really needs to be the last year that we are selling gasoline cars in Canada brand new if we're going to have any chance of actually, by 2050, reaching net-zero carbon emissions."

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EV Carpocalypse signals potential mismatch between electric vehicle production and demand, as charging infrastructure, utility coordination, and plug-in hybrid strategies lag forecasts, while state mandates and market-share plays drive cautious, data-informed scaling.

Key Points

EV Carpocalypse describes overbuilt EV supply versus demand amid charging rollout, mandates, and risk-managed scaling.

✅ Forecasts vs actual EV demand may diverge in near term

✅ Charging infrastructure and utilities lag vehicle output

✅ Mandates and PHEVs cushion adoption while data guides scaling

According to Forbes contributor David Kiley, and Wards Automotive columnist John McElroy, there may be an impending “carpocalypse” of electric vehicles on the way. Sounds very damning and it’s certainly not the upbeat tone I’ve taken on nearly every piece of EV demand content I’ve authored but the author, Kiley does bring up some interesting points worth considering. EV Adoption is happening, and it’s certainly doing so at ever faster rates as the market nears an EV inflection point today. The infrastructure (charging stations, utility cooperation) is being built out more slowly than vehicle manufacturers are producing cars but, as the GM president on EV hurdles has noted, the issue seems to be just that, maybe even the short and medium term plans for EV manufacturing are too aggressive.

#google#

With new EV and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales representing a mere .6% of new car cales in the US, a sign that EV sales remain behind gas cars even as new models proliferate, car makers are are going to be spending more than $100 billion to come out with more than a hundred models of battery electric vheicles which also includes PHEVs and the fear is these vehicles aren’t going to sell in the numbers that automakers and industry analysts may have expected. But forecasts are just that, forecasts, even as U.S. EV sales surge into 2024 suggest momentum. So there’s a valid argument to be made that they’ll either overshoot the true mark or come in way below the actual amount. With nine U.S. states mandating that 15% of new cars sold be EVs by 2025, you could say that at least automakers have supporters in state government helping to push the new technology into the hands of more drivers.

Still, it’s anyone’s guess as to what true adoption will be, and a brief Q1 2024 market share dip underscores lingering volatility. The use of big data and just in time manufacturing will ensure that manufacturers will miss the mark on EVs by less than they have in the past, and will able to cope with breaking even on these vehicles for the sake of gobbling up precious early stage market share. After all, many vendors have up to this point been very willing to break even or make a loss on their lease-only EVs or on EV or hybrid financing in order to gain that share and build out their brand awareness and technical prowess. With some stops and starts, demand will meet supply or supply may need to meet demand but either way, the EV adoption wave is coming to a driveway near you. 

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DOE LNG Export Approvals expand flexibility for Cheniere's Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi to ship to non-FTA countries, boosting U.S. supply to Europe while advancing methane emissions reductions and strengthening global energy security.

Key Points

DOE LNG export approvals authorize Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi to sell full-capacity LNG to non-FTA markets.

✅ Exports allowed to any non-FTA country, including Europe

✅ Capacity covers Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi terminals

✅ DOE targets methane reductions across oil and gas

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today issued two long-term orders authorizing liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from two current operating LNG export projects, Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas, following a recent deep freeze that slammed the American energy sector.

The two orders allow Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi additional flexibility to export the equivalent of 0.72 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas as LNG to any country with which the U.S. does not have a free trade agreement, including all of Europe, such as the UK natural gas market as well.

While U.S. exporters are already exporting at or near their maximum capacity, with today's issuances, every operating U.S. LNG export project has approval from DOE to export its full capacity to any country where not prohibited by U.S. law or policy constraints in place.

The U.S. is now the top global exporter of LNG and exports are set to grow an additional 20% beyond current levels by the end of this year as additional capacity comes online, even as a domestic energy crisis influences electricity and gas markets.  In January 2022, U.S. LNG supplied more than half of the LNG imports into Europe for the month.

With the expected rise in LNG exports, DOE is particularly focused on driving down methane emissions in the oil and gas sector both domestically and abroad, leveraging the deep technical expertise of the Department, and supporting nuclear innovation as well.

U.S. LNG remains an important component to global energy security worldwide and DOE remains committed to finding ways to help our allies and trading partners, including support to Ukraine and others with the energy supplies they need while continuing to work to mitigate the impact of climate change.

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Canada EV Incentives drive adoption toward the 2035 zero-emission target, with rebates, federal and provincial programs boosting affordability amid concerns over charging infrastructure, range anxiety, and battery life, according to a BNN Bloomberg-Leger survey.

Key Points

Canada EV incentives are rebates and tax credits reducing EV costs to accelerate zero-emission vehicle adoption nationwide.

✅ Federal and provincial rebates reduce EV purchase prices

✅ Incentives offset range, battery, and charging concerns

✅ Larger incentives correlate with higher adoption rates

If the federal government wants to meet its ambitious EV goals of having all cars and passenger trucks sold in Canada be zero emissions by 2035, it’s going to have to do something about the cost of these vehicles.

A new survey from BNN Bloomberg and RATESDOTCA has found that cost is the number one reason stopping Canadians from buying an electric car.

The survey, which was conducted by Leger Marketing earlier this month, asked 1,511 Canadians if they were planning to purchase a new electric vehicle in the near future. It found that just over one in four, or 26 per cent of Canadians, are planning to do so, with Atlantic Canada lagging other regions. On the other hand, 19 per cent of Canadians are planning to buy a gas/diesel/hybrid card for their next purchase. 

Those who aren’t planning on buying an EV were asked what the biggest reason for their decision was. By far, it was the price of these vehicles: 31 per cent of this group cited cost as the main reason for not electrifying their ride. Another 59 per cent of respondents cited it as a concern, but not the main one. Other reasons for not wanting to buy an electric vehicle included lack of infrastructure (18 per cent), range concerns (16 per cent), and battery life and replacement (13 per cent), and some report EV shortages and wait times too.

What’s interesting is that it’s clear that government incentives for EVs are the most powerful tool right now to drive adoption, though some argue subsidies are a bad idea for Canada. When asked if further government incentives would convince them to buy an electric vehicle, 78 per cent of those surveyed said yes.

That’s right. If more governments increased the incentives offered for buying electric vehicles, reaching the goal of only selling zero emission vehicles in Canada by 2035 would no longer be a pipe dream, despite 2035 mandate skepticism from some.

At the moment, only Quebec and B.C. offer government incentives to buy an electric vehicle, even as B.C. charging bottlenecks are predicted. The federal government offers up to a $5,000 incentive, with restrictions including a limit on the total price of the vehicle, and has signaled EV sales regulations are forthcoming. Ontario previously offered a rebate of up to $14,000, however, the popular program was cancelled when the Progress Conservative government was elected in 2018.

The cancellation led to a plunge in new electric vehicle sales in Ontario, falling more than 55 per cent in the first six months of 2019 when compared to the same time period in the previous year, according to Electric Mobility Canada.

It’s no surprise that the larger the incentive, the more Canadians will be swayed to buy an electric car. Perhaps what’s surprising is that the incentive doesn’t even have to be as large as the previous Ontario rebate was. The survey found that seven per cent of Canadians would buy an electric vehicle if they got an incentive ranging anywhere from $5,001-$7,250. A full 35 per cent said a $12,500 or higher incentive would convince them.

The majority of Canadians surveyed said they use their vehicles for leisure or commuting to work. Leisure uses include running errands and seeing friends and family, of which 43 per cent of respondents said was the primary way they used their vehicle. Meanwhile, 36 per cent said they primarily used their car to commute to work.

The survey also found that incentives were more effective at convincing younger people to buy an electric vehicle. Eighty-three per cent of those under the age of 55 could be swayed by new incentives. But for those over 55, only 66 per cent said they would change their mind. 

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Ford Oakville Electric Vehicle Complex will anchor EV production in Ontario, adding a battery plant, retooling lines, and assembly capacity for passenger models targeting the North American market and Canada's zero-emission mandates.

Key Points

A retooled Ontario hub for passenger EV production, featuring on-site battery assembly and modernized lines.

✅ Retooling begins Q2 2024; EV production slated for 2025.

✅ New 407,000 sq ft battery plant for pack assembly.

✅ First full-line passenger EV production in Canada.

Ford Motor Co. has revealed some details of its plan to spend $1.8 billion on its Oakville Assembly Complex to turn it into an electric vehicle production hub, a government-backed Oakville EV deal, in the latest commitment by an automaker transitioning towards an electric future.

The automaker said Tuesday that it will start retooling the Ontario complex in the second quarter of 2024, bolstering Ontario's EV jobs boom, and begin producing electric vehicles in 2025.

The transformation of the Oakville site, to be renamed the Oakville Electric Vehicle Complex, will include a new 407,000 square-foot battery plant, similar to Honda's Ontario battery investment efforts, where parts produced at Ford's U.S. operations will be assembled into battery packs.

General Motors is already producing electric delivery vans in Canada, and its Ontario EV plant plans continue to expand, but Ford says this is the first time a full-line automaker has announced plans to produce passenger EVs in Canada for the North American market.

GM said in February it plans to build motors for electric vehicles at its St. Catharines, Ont. propulsion plant, aligning with the Niagara Region battery investment now underway. The motors will go into its BrightDrop electric delivery vans, which it produces in part at its Ingersoll, Ont. plant, as well as its electric pickup trucks, producing enough at the plant for 400,000 vehicles a year.

Ford's announcement is the latest commitment by an automaker transitioning towards an electric future, part of Canada's EV assembly push that is accelerating.

"Canada and the Oakville complex will play a vital role in our Ford Plus transformation," said chief executive Jim Farley in a statement.

The company has committed to invest over US$50 billion in electric vehicles globally and has a target of producing two million EVs a year by the end of 2026 as part of its Ford Plus growth plan, reflecting an EV market inflection point worldwide.

Ford didn't specify in the release which models it planned to build at the Oakville complex, which currently produces the Ford Edge and Lincoln Nautilus.

The company's spending plans were first announced in 2020 as part of union negotiations, with workers seeking long-term production commitments and the Detroit Three automakers eventually agreeing to invest in Canadian operations in concert with spending agreements with the Ontario and federal governments.

The two governments agreed to provide $295 million each in funding to secure the Ford investment.

"The partnership between Ford and Canada helps to position us as a global leader in the EV supply chain for decades to come," said Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne in Ford's news release.

Funding help comes as the federal government moves to require that at least 20 percent of new vehicles sold in Canada will be zero-emission by 2026, at least 60 per cent by 2030, and 100 per cent by 2035.

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