Will Electric Vehicles Crash The Grid?

Wind farm reliability services now compete in wholesale markets, as FERC and NERC endorse market-based solutions that reward performance, bolster grid resilience, and compensate ancillary services like frequency regulation, voltage support, and spinning reserve.

Key Points

Grid support from wind plants, including frequency, voltage, ramping, and inertial response via advanced controls.

✅ Enabled by advanced controls and inverter-based technology

✅ Compete in market-based mechanisms for ancillary services

✅ Support frequency, voltage, reserves; enhance grid resilience

American Wind Energy Association CEO Tom Kiernan has explained to a congressional testimony that wind farms can now compete, as renewables approach market majority, to provide essential electric reliability services. 

Mr Kiernan appeared before the US Congress House Energy and Commerce Committee where he said that, thanks to technological advances, wind farms are now competitive with other energy technologies with regard to reliability and resiliency. He added that grid reliability and resilience are goals that everyone can support and that efforts underway at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and by market operators are rightly focused on market-based solutions to better compensate generators for providing those essential services.

AWEA strongly agreed with other witnesses on the panel who endorsed market-based solutions in their submitted testimony, including the American Petroleum Institute, Solar Energy Industries Association, Energy Storage Association, Natural Resources Defence Council, National Hydropower Association, and others. However, AWEA is concerned that the Department of Energy’s recent proposal to provide payments to specific resources based on arbitrary requirements is anti-competitive, and threatens to undermine electricity markets that are bolstering reliability and saving consumers billions of dollars per year.

“We support the objective of maintaining a reliable and resilient grid which is best achieved through free and open markets, with a focus on needed reliability services – not sources – and a programme to promote transmission infrastructure.”

Kiernan outlined several major policy recommendations in his testimony, including reliance on competitive markets that reward performance to ensure affordable and reliable electricity, a focus on reliability needs rather than generation sources and the promotion of transmission infrastructure investment to improve resilience and allow consumers greater access to all low-cost forms of energy.

The CEO of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recently testified that the state of reliability in North America remains strong and the trend line shows continuing improvement year over year. Technological advances and innovation by over 100,000 US wind workers enable wind farms today to provide the grid reliability services traditionally provided by conventional power plants. NERC’s CEO emphasised in its testimony at last month’s hearing that “variable resources significantly diversify the generation portfolio and can contribute to reliability and resilience in important ways.”

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Vineyard Wind Offshore Wind Farm delivers clean power to Massachusetts near Martha's Vineyard, with 62 turbines and 800 MW capacity, advancing renewable energy, cutting carbon, lowering costs, and driving net-zero emissions and green jobs.

Key Points

An 800 MW Massachusetts offshore project of 62 turbines supplying clean power to 400,000+ homes and cutting emissions.

✅ 800 MW powering 400,000+ MA homes and businesses

✅ 62 turbines, 13 MW each, 15 miles from Martha's Vineyard

✅ Cuts 1.6M tons CO2 annually; boosts jobs and port infrastructure

The crisp Atlantic air off the coast of Martha's Vineyard carried a new melody on February 2nd, 2024. Five colossal turbines, each taller than the Statue of Liberty, began their graceful rotations, marking the historic moment power began flowing from Vineyard Wind, the first large-scale offshore wind farm in the United States, enabled by Interior Department approval earlier in the project timeline. This momentous occasion signifies a seismic shift in Massachusetts' energy landscape, one that promises cleaner air, lower energy costs, and a more sustainable future for generations to come.

Nestled 15 miles southeast of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket, Vineyard Wind is a colossal undertaking. The project, a joint venture between Avangrid Renewables and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, will ultimately encompass 62 turbines, each capable of generating a staggering 13 megawatts. Upon full completion later this year, Vineyard Wind will power over 400,000 homes and businesses across Massachusetts, contributing a remarkable 800 megawatts to the state's energy grid.

But the impact of Vineyard Wind extends far beyond mere numbers. This trailblazing project holds immense environmental significance. By harnessing the clean and inexhaustible power of the wind, Vineyard Wind is projected to annually reduce carbon emissions by a staggering 1.6 million metric tons – equivalent to taking 325,000 cars off the road. This translates to cleaner air, improved public health, and a crucial step towards mitigating the climate crisis.

Governor Maura Healey hailed the project as a "turning point" in Massachusetts' clean energy journey. "Across the Commonwealth, homes and businesses will now be powered by clean, affordable energy, contributing to cleaner air, lower energy costs, and pushing us closer to achieving net-zero emissions," she declared.

Vineyard Wind's impact isn't limited to the environment; it's also creating a wave of economic opportunity. Since its inception in 2017, the project has generated nearly 2,000 jobs, with close to 1,000 positions filled by union workers thanks to a dedicated Project Labor Agreement. Construction has also breathed new life into the New Bedford Marine Commerce Terminal, with South Coast construction activity accelerating around the port, transforming it into the nation's first port facility specifically designed for offshore wind, showcasing the project's commitment to local infrastructure development.

"Every milestone on Vineyard Wind 1 is special, but powering up these first turbines stands apart," emphasized Pedro Azagra, CEO of Avangrid Renewables. "This accomplishment reflects the years of dedication and collaboration that have defined this pioneering project. Each blade rotation and megawatt flowing to Massachusetts homes is a testament to the collective effort that brought offshore wind power to the United States."

Vineyard Wind isn't just a project; it's a catalyst for change. It perfectly aligns with Massachusetts' ambitious clean energy goals, which include achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 and procuring 3,200 megawatts of offshore wind by 2028, while BOEM lease requests in the Northeast continue to expand the development pipeline across the region. As Energy and Environmental Affairs Secretary Rebecca Tepper stated, "Standing up a new industry is no easy feat, but we're committed to forging ahead and growing this sector to lower energy costs, create good jobs, and build a cleaner, healthier Commonwealth."

The launch of Vineyard Wind transcends Massachusetts, serving as a beacon for the entire U.S. offshore wind industry, as New York's biggest offshore wind farm moves forward to amplify regional momentum. This demonstration of large-scale development paves the way for further investment and growth in this critical clean energy source. However, the journey isn't without its challenges, and questions persist about reaching 1 GW on the grid nationwide as stakeholders navigate timelines. Concerns regarding potential impacts on marine life and visual aesthetics remain, requiring careful consideration and ongoing community engagement.

Despite these challenges, Vineyard Wind stands as a powerful symbol of hope and progress. It represents a significant step towards a cleaner, more sustainable future, powered by renewable energy sources at a time when U.S. offshore wind is about to soar according to industry outlooks. It's a testament to the collaborative effort of policymakers, businesses, and communities working together to tackle the climate crisis. As the turbines continue their majestic rotations, they carry a message of hope, reminding us that a brighter, more sustainable future is within reach, powered by the wind of change.

Additional Considerations:

• The project boasts a dedicated Fisheries Innovation Fund, fostering collaboration between the fishing and offshore wind industries to ensure sustainable coexistence.
• Vineyard Wind has invested in education and training programs, preparing local residents for careers in the burgeoning wind energy sector.
• The project's success opens doors for further offshore wind development in the U.S., such as Long Island proposals gaining attention, paving the way for a clean energy revolution.

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ONroute EV Charging Stations now live on Ontario's Highways 401 and 400, powered by Ivy Charging Network with 150 kW fast chargers, Tesla-compatible ports, Canadian Tire support, and government-backed clean transportation infrastructure.

Key Points

ONroute EV Charging Stations are Ivy-managed 150 kW fast-charging hubs along Highways 401/400, compatible with all EVs.

✅ Up to 150 kW DC fast charging; ~100 km added in about 10 minutes

✅ Compatible with all EV models, including Tesla-compatible ports

✅ Located along Highways 401/400; 2-4 chargers per ONroute site

Electric vehicle (EV) drivers can now charge at 10 ONroute locations along Highways 401 and 400, reflecting progress on the province's charging network rollout to date.

Ivy Charging Network, ONroute and their partners, Canadian Tire Corporation (CTC) and the Ministry of Transportation (MTO) announced the opening of four Charge & Go EV fast-charging stations today: Ingleside, Innisfil, Tilbury North, Woodstock

Each of Ivy's Charge & Go level 3 fast-chargers at ONroute locations will support the charging of all EV models, including charging ports for Tesla drivers.

Quick Facts

Ivy Charging Network is installing 69 level 3 fast-chargers across all ONroute locations, with the possibility of further expansion as Ontario makes it easier to build charging stations through supportive measures.

Ivy's ONroute Charge & Go locations will offer charging speeds of up-to 150 kWs, delivering up to a 100 km charge in 10 minutes.

This partnership is part of CTC's ongoing expansion of EV charging infrastructure across Canada, as utilities like BC Hydro add more stations across southern B.C.

Ivy Charging Network is a joint venture between Hydro One and Ontario Power Generation.

Natural Resources Canada, through its Electric Vehicle and Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Deployment Initiative, invested $8-million to help build the broader Ivy Charging Network, alongside other federal funding for smart chargers supporting deployments, providing access to 160 level 3 fast-chargers across Ontario including these ONroute locations.

'Our partnership with ONroute, Canadian Tire and the Ontario Ministry of Transportation will end range anxiety for EV drivers travelling on the province's major highways. These new fast-charging locations will give drivers the confidence they need on their road trips, to get them where they need to go this summer,' said Michael Kitchen, General Manager, Ivy Charging Network.

'ONroute is proud to now offer EV charging stations to our customers, in partnership with Ivy and Canadian Tire. We are focused on supporting the growth of electric cars and offering this convenience for our customers as we strive to be the recharge destination for all travelers across Ontario,' said Melanie Teed-Murch, Chief Executive Officer of ONroute.

'Together with our partners, CTC is proud to announce the opening of EV fast-charging stations at four additional ONroute locations along the 400-series highways. Our network of EV charging stations is just one of the ways CTC is supporting EV drivers of today and tomorrow to make life in Canada better, with growth similar to NB Power's public charging network underway,' said Micheline Davies, SVP, Automotive, Canadian Tire Corporation. 'We will have approximately 140 sites across the country by the end of the year, making CTC one of the largest retail networks of EV fast charging stations in Canada.'

'We're giving Canadians cleaner transportation options to get to where they need to go by making zero-emission charging and alternative-fuels refueling infrastructure more accessible, as seen with new fast-charging stations in N.B. announced recently. Investments like the ones announced today in Ontario will put Canadians in the driver's seat on the road to a net-zero future and help achieve our climate goals,' said the Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Natural Resources.

'Ontario is putting shovels in the ground to build critical infrastructure that will boost EV ownership, support Ontario's growing EV manufacturing industry and reduce emissions, complementing progress such as the first fast-charging network in N.L. now in place,' said Todd Smith, Minister of Energy. 'With EV fast chargers now available at ten ONroute stations along our province's business highways it's even more convenient than ever for workers and families to grab a coffee or a meal while charging their car.'

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New Mexico Energy Transition Act advances renewable energy, battery storage, energy efficiency, and demand response to boost grid reliability during climate change-fueled heatwaves, reducing emissions while supporting solar and wind deployment.

Key Points

A state policy phasing out power emissions, scaling renewables and storage, bolstering grid reliability in extreme heat.

✅ Replaces coal generation with solar plus battery storage

✅ Enhances grid reliability during climate-driven heatwaves

✅ Promotes energy efficiency and demand response programs

While temperatures hit record highs across much of the West in recent weeks and California was forced to curb electricity service amid heat-driven grid strain that week, the power stayed on in New Mexico thanks to proactive energy efficiency and conservation measures.

Public Service Company of New Mexico on Aug. 19 did ask customers to cut back on power use during the peak demand time until 9 p.m., to offset energy supply issues due to the record-breaking heatwave that was one of the most severe to hit the West since 2006. But the Albuquerque Journal's Aug. 28 editorial, "PRC should see the light with record heat and blackouts," confuses the problem with the solution. Record temperatures fueled by climate change – not renewable energy – were to blame for the power challenges last month. And thanks to the Energy Transition Act, New Mexico is reducing climate change-causing pollution and better positioned to prevent the worst impacts of global warming.

During those August days, more than 80 million U.S. residents were under excessive heat warnings. As the Journal's editorial pointed out, California experienced blackouts on Aug. 14 and 15 as wildfires swept across the state and temperatures rose. In fact, a recent report by the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab found the world has experienced record heat this summer due to climate change, and heat-related deaths will continue to rise in the future.

As the recent California energy incidents show, climate change is a threat to a reliable electricity system and our health as soaring temperatures and heatwaves strain our grid, as seen in Texas grid challenges this year as well. Demand for electricity rises as people depend more on energy-intensive air conditioning. High temperatures also can decrease transmission line efficiency and cause power plant operators to scale back or even temporarily stop electricity generation.

Lobbyists for the fossil fuel industry may claim that the service interruptions and the conservation requests in New Mexico demonstrate the need for keeping fossil-fueled power generation for electricity reliability, echoing policy blame narratives in California that fault climate policies. But fossil fuel combustion still is subject to the factors that cause blackouts – while also driving climate change and making resulting heatwaves more common. After an investigation, California's own energy agencies found no substance to the claim that renewable energy use was a factor in the situation there, and it's not to blame in New Mexico, either.

New Mexico's Energy Transition Act is a bold, necessary step to limit the damage caused by climate change in the future. It creates a reasonable, cost-saving path to eliminating greenhouse gas emissions associated with generating electricity.

The New Mexico Public Regulation Commission properly applied this law when it recently voted unanimously to replace PNM's coal-fired generation at San Juan Generating Station with carbon-free solar energy and battery storage located in the Four Corners communities, a prudent step given California's looming electricity shortage warnings across the West. The development will create jobs and provide resources for the local school district and help ensure a stronger economy and a healthier future for the region.

As we expand solar and wind energy here in New Mexico, we can help ensure reliable electricity service by building out greater battery storage for renewable energy resources. Expanding regional energy markets that can dispatch the lowest-cost energy from across the region to places where it is needed most would make renewable energy more available and reduce costs, despite concerns over policy exports raised by some observers.

Energy efficiency and demand response are important when we are facing extraordinary conditions, and proven strategies to improve electricity reliability show how demand-side tools complement the grid, so it is unfortunate that the Albuquerque Journal made the unsubstantiated claim that a stray cloud will put out the lights. It was hot, supplies were tight on the electric grid, and in those moments, we should conserve. We should not use those moments to turn our back on progress.

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IEA World Energy Outlook 2020 highlights solar power as the cheapest electricity, projects faster renewables growth, models net-zero pathways, assesses COVID-19 impacts, oil and gas demand, and policy scenarios including STEPS, SDS, and NZE2050.

Key Points

A flagship IEA report analyzing energy trends, COVID-19 impacts, renewables growth, and pathways to net-zero in 2050.

✅ Solar now the cheapest electricity in most major markets

✅ Scenarios: STEPS, SDS, NZE2050, plus delayed recovery case

✅ Oil and gas demand uncertain; CO2 peak needs stronger policy

The world’s best solar power schemes now offer the “cheapest…electricity in history” with the technology cheaper than coal and gas in most major countries.

That is according to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2020. The 464-page outlook, published today by the IEA, also outlines the “extraordinarily turbulent” impact of coronavirus and the “highly uncertain” future of global energy use and progress in the global energy transition over the next two decades.

Reflecting this uncertainty, this year’s version of the highly influential annual outlook offers four “pathways” to 2040, all of which see a major rise in renewables across markets. The IEA’s main scenario has 43% more solar output by 2040 than it expected in 2018, partly due to detailed new analysis showing that solar power is 20-50% cheaper than thought.

Despite a more rapid rise for renewables and a “structural” decline for coal, the IEA says it is too soon to declare a peak in global oil use, unless there is stronger climate action. Similarly, it says demand for gas could rise 30% by 2040, unless the policy response to global warming steps up.

This means that, while global CO2 emissions have effectively peaked flatlining in 2019 according to the IEA, they are “far from the immediate peak and decline” needed to stabilise the climate. The IEA says achieving net-zero emissions will require “unprecedented” efforts from every part of the global economy, not just the power sector.

For the first time, the IEA includes detailed modeling of a 1.5C pathway that reaches global net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. It says individual behaviour change, such as working from home “three days a week”, would play an “essential” role in reaching this new “net-zero emissions by 2050 case” (NZE2050).

Future scenarios
The IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) arrives every autumn and contains some of the most detailed and heavily scrutinised analysis of the global energy system. Over hundreds of densely packed pages, it draws on thousands of datapoints and the IEA’s World Energy Model.

The outlook includes several different scenarios, to reflect uncertainty over the many decisions that will affect the future path of the global economy, as well as the route taken out of the coronavirus crisis during the “critical” next decade. The WEO also aims to inform policymakers by showing how their plans would need to change if they want to shift onto a more sustainable path, including creating the right clean electricity investment incentives to accelerate progress.

This year it omits the “current policies scenario” (CPS), which usually “provides a baseline…by outlining a future in which no new policies are added to those already in place”. This is because “[i]t is difficult to imagine this ‘business as-usual’ approach prevailing in today’s circumstances”.

Those circumstances are the unprecedented fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, which remains highly uncertain as to its depth and duration. The crisis is expected to cause a dramatic decline in global energy demand in 2020, with oil demand also dropping sharply as fossil fuels took the biggest hit.

The main WEO pathway is again the “stated policies scenario” (STEPS, formerly NPS). This shows the impact of government pledges to go beyond the current policy baseline. Crucially, however, the IEA makes its own assessment of whether governments are credibly following through on their targets.

The report explains:

“The STEPS is designed to take a detailed and dispassionate look at the policies that are either in place or announced in different parts of the energy sector. It takes into account long-term energy and climate targets only to the extent that they are backed up by specific policies and measures. In doing so, it holds up a mirror to the plans of today’s policy makers and illustrates their consequences, without second-guessing how these plans might change in future.”

The outlook then shows how plans would need to change to plot a more sustainable path, highlighting efforts to replace fossil fuels with electricity in time to meet climate goals. It says its “sustainable development scenario” (SDS) is “fully aligned” with the Paris target of holding warming “well-below 2C…and pursuing efforts to limit [it] to 1.5C”. (This interpretation is disputed.)

The SDS sees CO2 emissions reach net-zero by 2070 and gives a 50% chance of holding warming to 1.65C, with the potential to stay below 1.5C if negative emissions are used at scale.

The IEA has not previously set out a detailed pathway to staying below 1.5C with 50% probability, with last year’s outlook only offering background analysis and some broad paragraphs of narrative.

For the first time this year, the WEO has “detailed modelling” of a “net-zero emissions by 2050 case” (NZE2050). This shows what would need to happen for CO2 emissions to fall to 45% below 2010 levels by 2030 on the way to net-zero by 2050, with a 50% chance of meeting the 1.5C limit, with countries such as Canada's net-zero electricity needs in focus to get there.

The final pathway in this year’s outlook is a “delayed recovery scenario” (DRS), which shows what might happen if the coronavirus pandemic lingers and the global economy takes longer to recover, with knock-on reductions in the growth of GDP and energy demand.

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Electric Vehicle Price Parity 2027 signals cheaper EV manufacturing as battery costs plunge, widening model lineups, and tighter EU emissions rules; UBS and BloombergNEF foresee parity, with TCO advantages over ICE amid growing fast-charging networks.

Key Points

EV cost parity in 2027 when manufacturing undercuts ICE, led by cheaper batteries, wider lineups, and emissions policy.

✅ Battery costs drop 58% next decade, after 88% fall

✅ Manufacturing parity across segments from 2027

✅ TCO favors EVs; charging networks expand globally

A Bloomberg/NEF report commissioned by Transport & Environment forecasts 2027 as the year when electric vehicles will start to become cheaper to manufacture than their internal combustion equivalents across all segments, aligning with analyses that the EV age is arriving ahead of schedule for consumers and manufacturers alike, mainly due to a sharp drop in battery prices and the appearance of new models by more manufacturers.

Batteries, which have fallen in price by 88% over the past decade and are expected to plunge by a further 58% over the next 10 years, make up between one-quarter and two-fifths of the total price of a vehicle. The average pre-tax price of a mid-range electric vehicle is around €33,300, and higher upfront prices concern many UK buyers compared to €18,600 for its diesel or gasoline equivalent. In 2026, both are expected to cost around €19,000, while in 2030, the same electric car will cost €16,300 before tax, while its internal combustion equivalent will cost €19,900, and that’s without factoring in government incentives.

Other reports, such as a recent one by UBS, put the date of parity a few years earlier, by 2024, after which they say there will be little reason left to buy a non-electric vehicle, as the market has expanded from near zero to 2 million in just five years.

In Europe, carmakers will become a particular stakeholder in this transition due to heavy fines for exceeding emissions limits calculated on the basis of the total number of vehicles sold. Increasing the percentage of electric vehicles in the annual sales portfolio is seen by the industry as the only way to avoid these fines. In addition to brands such as Bentley or Jaguar Land Rover, which have announced the total abandonment of internal combustion engine technology by 2025, or Volvo, which has set 2030 as the target date, other companies such as Ford, which is postponing this date in its home market, also set 2030 for the European market, which clearly demonstrates the suitability of this type of policy.

Nevertheless internal combustion vehicles will continue to travel on the roads or will be resold in developing countries. In addition to the price factor, which is even more accentuated when estimates are carried out in terms of total cost of ownership calculations due to the lower cost of electric recharging versus fuel and lower maintenance requirements, other factors such as the availability of fast charging networks must be taken into account.

While price parity is approaching, it is worth thinking about the factors that are causing car sales, which are still behind gasoline models in share, to suffer: the chip crisis, which is strongly affecting the automotive industry and will most likely extend until 2022, is creating production problems and the elimination of numerous advanced electronic options in many models, which reduces the incentive to purchase a vehicle at the present time. These types of reasons could lead some consumers to postpone purchasing a vehicle precisely when we may be talking about the final years for internal combustion technology, which would increase the likelihood that, later on and as the price gap closes, they would opt for an electric vehicle.

Finally, in the United States, the ambitious infrastructure plan put in place by the Biden administration also promises to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles by addressing key barriers to mainstream adoption such as charging access, which in turn is fueling the interest of automotive companies to have more electric vehicles in their range. In Europe, meanwhile, more Chinese brands offering electric vehicles are beginning to enter the most advanced markets, such as Norway and the Netherlands, with plans to expand to the rest of the continent with very competitive offers in terms of price.

One way or another, the future of the automotive industry is electric, and the transition will take place during the remainder of this decade. You might want to think about it if you are weighing whether it’s time to buy an electric car this year.

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