EV shortages, wait times amid high gasoline prices

US Wind and Solar Outlook 2026 projects cheap renewables displacing coal and gas, with utility-scale additions, rooftop solar growth, improved grid reliability, and EV V2G integration accelerating decarbonization across the electricity market.

Key Points

An analysis forecasting wind and solar growth, displacing coal and gas as utility-scale and rooftop solar expand.

✅ Utility-scale solar installs avg 21 GW/yr through 2026.

✅ 37.7 GW wind in pipeline; 127.8 GW already online.

✅ Small-scale solar could near 100 TWh in 2026.

A recent report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) predicts that cheap renewables in the form of wind and solar will push coal and gas out of the energy market space. Already at 9% of US generation, the report predicts that wind and solar will supply almost 30% of US electricity demand by 2026, consistent with renewables nearing one-fourth of U.S. generation projections for the near term.

“The Solar Energy Industries Association now expects utility-scale installations to average more than 21,000MW a year through 2026, following a year when U.S. solar generation rose 25% and with a peak of 25,000MW in 2023,” IEEFA writes. “Continued growth is also expected in U.S. wind generation, mirroring global trends where China's solar PV expansion outpaced all other fuels in 2016, with 37.7GW of new capacity already under construction or in advanced development, which would be added to 127.8GW in existing installed capacity.”

Meanwhile, with wind and solar growth booming, fossil fuels are declining, as renewables surpassed coal in 2022 nationwide. “Coal and natural gas are now locked into an essentially zero-sum game where increases in one fuel’s generation comes at the expense of the other. Together, they are not gaining market share, rather they are trading it back and forth, and the rapid growth in renewable generation will cut even deeper into the market share of both.”

And what of rooftop solar? Some states in Australia now have periods where the entire state grid is powered just by solar on the roofs of private citizens. As this revolution progresses in the USA, especially if a tenfold national solar push moves forward, what impact will it make on fossil fuel generators — which are expensive to build, expensive to maintain, expensive to fuel, and rely on an expensive distribution network.

“EIA estimates that this ‘small-scale solar’ produced 41.7 million MWh of power in 2020, when solar accounted for about 3% of U.S. electricity, a 19 percent increase from 2019. This growth will likely continue in the years ahead as costs continue to fall and concerns about grid reliability rise. Assuming a conservative 15 percent annual increase in small-scale solar going forward would push the sector’s generation to almost 100 million MWh in 2026.”

The Joker in the story might be the impact from electric vehicle adoption. Sales are set to surge and there’s more and more interest in V2G technology, even as wind and solar could provide 50% by 2050 in broader forecasts.

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U.S. Renewable Energy Share 2022 leads electricity generation trends, as wind and solar outpace nuclear and coal, per EIA data, with hydropower gains and grid growth highlighting rapid, sustainable capacity expansion nationwide.

Key Points

Renewables supplied over 25% of U.S. electricity in 2022, as wind and solar outpaced nuclear with double-digit growth.

✅ Renewables provided 25.52% of U.S. power Jan-Apr 2022.

✅ Wind and solar beat nuclear by 17.96% in April.

✅ Solar up 28.93%, wind up 24.25%; hydropower up 9.99%.

During the first four months of 2022, electrical generation by renewable energy sources accounted for over 25% of the nation’s electricity, projected to soon be about one-fourth as growth continues. In April alone, renewables hit a record April share of 29.3% — an all-time high.

And for the first time ever, the combination of just wind power and solar produce more electricity in April than the nation’s nuclear power plants — 17.96% more.

This is according to a SUN DAY Campaign analysis of data in EIA’s Electric Power Monthly report. The report also reveals that during the first third of this year, solar (including residential) generation climbed by 28.93%, while wind increased by 24.25%. Combined, solar and wind grew by 25.46% and accounted for more than one-sixth (16.67%) of U.S. electrical generation (wind: 12.24%, solar: 4.43%).

Hydropower also increased by 9.99% during the first four months of 2022. However, wind alone provided 70.89% more electricity than did hydropower. Together with contributions from geothermal and biomass, the mix of renewable energy sources expanded by 18.49%, and building on its second-most U.S. source in 2020 status helped underscore momentum as it provided about 25.5% of U.S. electricity during the first four months of 2022.

For the first third of the year, renewables surpassed coal and nuclear power by 26.13% and 37.80% respectively. In fact, electrical generation by coal declined by 3.94% compared to the same period in 2021 while nuclear dropped by 1.80%.

“Notwithstanding headwinds such as the COVID pandemic, grid access problems, and disruptions in global supply chains, solar and wind remain on a roll,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong. “Moreover, by surpassing nuclear power by ever greater margins, they illustrate the foolishness of trying to revive the soon-to-retire Diablo Canyon nuclear plant in California and the just-retired Palisades reactor in Michigan rather than focusing on accelerating renewables’ growth.”

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California Electric School Bus Mandate 2035 sets zero-emission requirements, outlines funding, state reimbursement, fleet electrification, infrastructure, and cost estimates, highlighting exemptions for frontier districts and alignment with clean transportation and climate policy goals.

Key Points

California's 2035 policy requires all new school buses be zero-emission, with funding and limited rural exemptions.

✅ Mandates zero-emission purchases for new school buses from 2035

✅ Estimates $5B transition cost with state reimbursement support

✅ Frontier districts may apply for 5-year extensions

California Governor Gavin Newsom has signed a new legislation requiring that from 2035, all newly ordered or contracted school buses must be zero-emission, a move aligned with California's push for expanded EV grid capacity statewide.

The state estimates that switching to electric school buses will cost around five billion dollars over the next decade, a projection reflecting electric bus challenges seen globally. That is because a diesel equivalent costs about 200,000 dollars less than a battery-electric version, as highlighted by critical analyses of California policy. And “the California Constitution requires the state to reimburse local agencies and school districts for certain costs mandated by the state.”

There are about 23,800 school buses on the road in California. About 500 are already electric, with conversion initiatives expected to expand the total, and 2,078 electric buses have been ordered.

There are – as always- exceptions to the rule. So-called “frontier districts,” which have less than 600 students or are in a county with a population density of less than ten persons per square mile, can file for a five-year extension, drawing on lessons from large electric bus fleets about route length and charging constraints. However, they must “reasonably demonstrate that a daily planned bus route for transporting pupils to and from school cannot be serviced through available zero-emission technology in 2035.”

Califonia is the fifth US state to mandate electric school buses, and jurisdictions like British Columbia are deploying electric school buses as well. Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, and New York implemented similar legislation, while California continues broader zero-emission freight adoption with Volvo VNR electric trucks entering service across the state.

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Clean Energy Buyers Alliance 2030 Goal targets a 90% carbon-free U.S. grid, accelerating power-sector decarbonization via corporate renewable energy procurement, market and policy reforms, and customer demand to enable net-zero electrification across industries.

Key Points

The Alliance's plan to reach a 90% carbon-free U.S. electricity system by 2030 via customer-driven markets and policy.

✅ Corporate buyers scale renewable PPAs and aggregation

✅ Market and policy reforms unlock clean power access

✅ Goal aligns with net-zero and widespread electrification

The Clean Energy Buyers Association (CEBA) and the Clean Energy Buyers Institute (CEBI), which together make up the Clean Energy Buyers Alliance, have announced a profound new aspiration for impact: a 90% carbon-free U.S. electricity system by 2030 and a global community of energy customers driving the global energy transition forward.

Alongside the two organizations’ bold new vision of the future – customer-driven clean energy for all – the Alliance will super-charge the work of its predecessor organizations, the Renewable Energy Buyers Alliance (REBA) and the REBA Institute, which represent the most iconic global companies with more than $6 trillion dollars in annual revenues and 14 million employees.

“This is the decisive decade for climate action and especially for decarbonization of the power sector,” said Miranda Ballentine, CEO of CEBA and CEBI. “To achieve a net-zero economy worldwide by 2050, the United States must lead. And the power sector must accelerate toward a 2030 timeline as electrification of other industries will be driving up power use.”

In the U.S. alone, more than 60% of electricity is consumed by the commercial and industrial sectors. Institutional energy customers have accelerated the deployment of clean energy solutions over the last 10 years to achieve increasingly ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets, even as a federal coal plan remains under debate, and further cement the critical role of customers in decarbonizing the energy system. The Clean Energy Buyers Association Deal Tracker shows that 7.9 GW of new corporate renewable energy project announcements in the first three quarters of this year are equivalent to 40% of all new carbon free energy capacity added in the U.S. so far in 2021.

“With our new vision of customer-driven clean energy for all, we are also unveiling new organization brands,” Ballentine continued. “I’m excited to announce that REBA will become CEBA—the Clean Energy Buyers Association—and will focus on activating our community of energy customers and partners to deploy market and policy solutions for a carbon-free energy system. The REBA Institute will become the Clean Energy Buyers Institute (CEBI) and will focus on solving the toughest market and policy barriers to achieving a carbon-free energy system in collaboration with policymakers, leading philanthropies, and energy market stakeholders. Together, CEBA and CEBI will make up the new Clean Energy Buyers Alliance.”

To decarbonize the U.S. electricity system 90% by 2030, a goal aligned with California's 100% carbon-free mandate efforts, and to activate a community of customers driving clean energy around the world, the Clean Energy Buyers Alliance will drive three critical transformations to:

Unlock markets so that energy customers can use their buying power and market-influence, building on a historic U.S. climate deal this year, to accelerate electricity decarbonization.

Catalyze communities of energy customers to actively choose clean energy through Mission Innovation collaborations and to do more together than they could on their own.

Decarbonize the grid for all, since not every energy customer can or will use their buying power to choose clean energy.

“The Clean Energy Buyers Alliance is setting the bar for what energy buyers, utilities and governments should and need to be doing to achieve a carbon-free energy future,” said Michael Terrell, CEBA board chair and Director of Energy at Google. “This ambitious approach is a critical step in tackling climate change. The time for meaningful climate action is now and we must collectively be bolder and more ambitious in our actions in both the public and private sectors – starting today.”

This new vision of customer-driven clean energy for all is an unprecedented opportunity for every member of the Clean Energy Buyers Alliance community – from energy customers to providers to manufacturers – to all parties up and down the energy supply chain to lead the evolution of a new energy economy, which will require incentives to double investment in clean energy to rise to $4 trillion by 2030.

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Canada Renewable Energy Outlook highlights IEA forecasts of slower capacity growth as Ontario cancels LRP auctions; wind, solar, and hydro expand amid carbon pricing, coal phase-out, Alberta tenders, and falling costs despite natural gas competition.

Key Points

The Canada Renewable Energy Outlook distills IEA projections and policies behind wind, solar, and hydro growth to 2022.

✅ IEA trims Canada renewables growth to 9 GW by 2022

✅ Ontario LRP cuts and Quebec tenders reduce near-term additions

✅ Wind, solar, hydro expand amid carbon pricing and coal phase-out

A new report expects growth in Canadian renewable energy capacity to slow in the next five years compared to earlier projections, a decrease that comes after Ontario scrapped a contentious clean energy program aimed at boosting wind and solar supplies.

The International Energy Agency’s annual outlook for renewable energy, released Wednesday, projects Canada’s renewable capacity to grow by nine gigawatts between 2017 and 2022, down from last year’s report that projected capacity would grow by 13GW.

The influential Paris-based agency said its recent outlook for Canadian renewables was “less optimistic” than its 2016 projection due to “recent changes in auctions schemes in Ontario and Quebec.”

PROGRAM CUTS

In mid-2016 the Ontario government suspended the second phase of its Large Renewable Procurement (LPR) program, axing $3.8 billion in planned renewable energy contracts. And Quebec cancelled tenders for several clean energy projects, which also led the agency to trim its forecasts, the report said.

Ontario cut the LRP program amid anger over rising electricity bills, which critics said was at least partly due to the rapid expansion of wind power supplies across the province.

Experts said the rise in costs was also partly due to major one-time costs to maintain aging infrastructure, particularly the $12.8-billion refurbishment of the Darlington nuclear plant located east of Toronto. The province also has plans to renovate the nearby Pickering nuclear plant in coming years.

The IEA report comes as Ottawa aims to drastically cut carbon emissions, largely by expanding renewable energy capacity. The provinces, including the Prairie provinces, have meanwhile been looking to pare back emissions by phasing out coal and implementing a carbon tax.

While Ontario’s decision to scrap the LRP program is a minor setback in the near-term, analysts say that tightening environmental policy in Canada and elsewhere will regardless continue to drive rapid growth in renewable energy supplies like wind power and solar.

Even the threat of cheap supplies of natural gas, a major competitor to renewable supplies, is unlikely to keep wind and solar supplies off the market, despite lagging solar demand in some regions, as costs continue to fall.

“It’s not just this (Ontario) renewables program, it’s the carbon pricing program, the coal phase out, a whole plethora of programs that are squeezing natural gas margins,” said Dave Sawyer, an economist at EnviroEconomics in Ottawa.

RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY

Canada’s renewable energy capacity is still expected to grow at a robust 10 per cent per year, the report said, and is expected to supply 69 per cent of overall power generation in the country by 2022.

The IEA, however, expects the growth in hydro power capacity to “slow significantly” beyond 2022, after a raft of new hydro projects come online.

Canadian hydro power capacity is projected to grow 2.2GW in the next five years, mostly due to the commissioning of the Keeyask plant in Manitoba the Muskrat Falls dam in Newfoundland and Labrador and the Romaine 3 and 4 stations in Quebec, in a sector where Canada ranks in the top 10 for hydropower jobs nationwide.

Solar capacity in Canada is expected to grow by 2GW to 4.7GW in 2022, approaching the 5 GW milestone in the near term, mostly due to feed-in-tariff programs in Ontario and renewable energy tenders currently underway in Alberta.

Globally, China and India lead renewable capacity growth projections. China alone is expected to be responsible for 40 per cent of renewable capacity growth in the next five years, while India will double its renewable electricity capacity by 2022. The world is collectively expected to grow renewable electricity capacity by 43 per cent between 2017 and 2022.

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US Grid Decarbonization demands balancing renewables, reliability, and resilience with smart transmission, storage, siting, and demand response, leveraging digital asset management to modernize infrastructure while meeting climate goals and rising electricity consumption.

Key Points

Low-carbon power while maintaining reliability via renewables, storage, transmission, and digital operations.

✅ Siting wind and solar requires community engagement and environmental review

✅ Balance variable renewables with storage, flexible load, and firm capacity

✅ Modernize transmission and digitize asset data for reliable operations

Last week, over 13,000 energy and technology leaders arrived in Dallas for DISTRIBUTECH International to share knowledge, showcase new technology advancements, and discuss initiatives to prepare for the future of energy. Among the many topics discussed was the critical need to balance rising energy demands and environmental pressures while understanding why the grid isn't 100% renewable today alongside effective climate change solutions.

The most widespread source of energy consumption is electricity. According to The U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2020 electricity consumption rates were roughly 3.8 trillion kWh - 13 times higher than in 1950. With our ever-increasing reliance on electricity, renewables' share of generation is also rising and this number is sure to grow exponentially in the coming years.

How can the US achieve meaningful decarbonization goals without sacrificing reliable and stable energy? Here are 4 of the biggest challenges and practical ways to meet them:

Siting New Solar and Wind Farms
Building renewable energy sources is more difficult than it seems. Scouting for sites is fraught with issues such as community opposition due to local aesthetics and clean energy's hidden costs around disruption to the environment and recreation.

NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) is an influential source of opposition. Local residents join together in an effort to prevent shore front views in wealthy coastal areas from obstruction, which are needed to support offshore wind farms. These farms can also negatively impact local fisheries, while outdoor sports and entertainment activities such as sailing, waterskiing, fishing, or swimming may be disrupted, which are equally opposed by NIMBY advocates.

Utilities must take these concerns into account when scouting for renewable energy sites.

Maintaining Consistent Availability of Generation Capacity
The capacity to generate consistent, reliable electricity is both a regional and nationwide concern.

Wind and solar farms depend on a consistent level of wind velocity and sunny periods, yet wind and solar could meet 80% of U.S. demand and regional concerns must be considered. For example, the southwestern United States is an ideal location for large commercial solar arrays. Areas in the north are more problematic since fall and winter days are shorter, reducing their ability to consistently generate energy. The Midwest is a prime location for wind-based generation since it experiences a consistent level of wind throughout the year.

Nighttime periods and cloudy days virtually eliminate solar farms as a consistent energy source while loss of available winds impacts the reliability of wind as a base load supply of energy generation.

Pivoting From Current Energy Usage Models
Over the last 20 years, utilities have been heavily involved with normalizing consumer energy consumption curves, pursuing grid resilience strategies to manage variability. Due to the high cost of siting new fossil fuel facilities, building new electric grid interconnections, and the high commodity pricing for imported power, utilities were driven to modify their customers’ energy usage patterns.

These consumption regulating policies included:

• Time of use metering to entice customers to use high energy devices at night
• Installation of energy monitoring devices on high use customer equipment to enable the utility to reduce energy demand during peak use periods
• Charging electric vehicles overnight

With fundamental changes occurring in how energy is generated, the availability of renewable power during low or no-sun periods and lower wind levels will require utilities to alter their energy consumption models.

Utilizing Government Support of New Electric Infrastructure
With the proposed government infusion of funds, including a rule to boost renewable transmission, to build and modernize infrastructures, utility leaders will be ideally positioned to drastically improve the reliability of the US electric grid.

Utilities will be involved in aggressive transmission line building projects to ensure the effective distribution of energy across multiple state lines, aligning with the U.S. grid overhaul for renewables underway today. This expansive build out of the US transmission and distribution system will create a dramatic increase in the need to accurately document the location and details of the new utility assets for current tracking and future analysis needs.

Energy leaders must seek advanced technology to provide them with solutions for precisely this purpose. Manual, paper-based field data collection must be replaced with digital workflows which automate and simplify asset data capture and analysis. Continued reliance on manual methods will cause them to lag behind the industry and impede their ability to support renewable energy for the modern era.

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