Will EV Supply Miss the Demand Mark in the Short and Medium Term?


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EV Carpocalypse signals potential mismatch between electric vehicle production and demand, as charging infrastructure, utility coordination, and plug-in hybrid strategies lag forecasts, while state mandates and market-share plays drive cautious, data-informed scaling.

 

Key Points

EV Carpocalypse describes overbuilt EV supply versus demand amid charging rollout, mandates, and risk-managed scaling.

✅ Forecasts vs actual EV demand may diverge in near term

✅ Charging infrastructure and utilities lag vehicle output

✅ Mandates and PHEVs cushion adoption while data guides scaling

 

According to Forbes contributor David Kiley, and Wards Automotive columnist John McElroy, there may be an impending “carpocalypse” of electric vehicles on the way. Sounds very damning and it’s certainly not the upbeat tone I’ve taken on nearly every piece of EV demand content I’ve authored but the author, Kiley does bring up some interesting points worth considering. EV Adoption is happening, and it’s certainly doing so at ever faster rates as the market nears an EV inflection point today. The infrastructure (charging stations, utility cooperation) is being built out more slowly than vehicle manufacturers are producing cars but, as the GM president on EV hurdles has noted, the issue seems to be just that, maybe even the short and medium term plans for EV manufacturing are too aggressive.

#google#

With new EV and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales representing a mere .6% of new car cales in the US, a sign that EV sales remain behind gas cars even as new models proliferate, car makers are are going to be spending more than $100 billion to come out with more than a hundred models of battery electric vheicles which also includes PHEVs and the fear is these vehicles aren’t going to sell in the numbers that automakers and industry analysts may have expected. But forecasts are just that, forecasts, even as U.S. EV sales surge into 2024 suggest momentum. So there’s a valid argument to be made that they’ll either overshoot the true mark or come in way below the actual amount. With nine U.S. states mandating that 15% of new cars sold be EVs by 2025, you could say that at least automakers have supporters in state government helping to push the new technology into the hands of more drivers.

Still, it’s anyone’s guess as to what true adoption will be, and a brief Q1 2024 market share dip underscores lingering volatility. The use of big data and just in time manufacturing will ensure that manufacturers will miss the mark on EVs by less than they have in the past, and will able to cope with breaking even on these vehicles for the sake of gobbling up precious early stage market share. After all, many vendors have up to this point been very willing to break even or make a loss on their lease-only EVs or on EV or hybrid financing in order to gain that share and build out their brand awareness and technical prowess. With some stops and starts, demand will meet supply or supply may need to meet demand but either way, the EV adoption wave is coming to a driveway near you. 

 

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American wind power congratulates President-elect Biden on his victory.

American Wind Power Statement on Biden highlights collaboration on renewable energy policy, clean energy jobs, carbon-free power, climate action, and a modern grid to grow the economy while keeping electricity costs low.

 

Key Points

AWEA commits to work with Biden on renewable policy, clean energy jobs, and a carbon-free U.S. grid.

✅ AWEA cites over 120,000 U.S. wind jobs ready to scale

✅ Supports 100% carbon-free power target by mid-century

✅ Aims to keep electricity costs low with renewable policy

 

American wind power congratulates President-elect Biden on his victory. "We look forward to collaborating with his administration and Congress, after pledges to scrap offshore wind in recent years, as we work together to shape a cleaner and more prosperous energy future for America, where wind and solar surpass coal in generation across the country.

The President-elect and his team have laid out an ambitious, comprehensive approach to energy policy that recognizes renewable energy's ability to grow America's economy and create a cleaner environment, as market majority for clean energy becomes a realistic prospect, while keeping electricity costs low and combating the threat of climate change as wind power surges across many regions.

The U.S. wind sector and its growing workforce of over 120,000 Americans stand ready to help put that plan into action and support the Biden administration in delivering on the immense promise of renewable energy to add well-paying jobs to the U.S. economy, with quarter-million wind jobs forecast in coming years, and reach the President-elect's 100% target for a carbon-free America by the middle of this century, alongside a 100% clean electricity by 2035 goal that charts the near-term path." - Tom Kiernan, CEO of the American Wind Energy Association.

 

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Electric car charging networks jostle for pole position amid Biden's push to electrify

EV Charging Infrastructure Expansion accelerates as DC fast charging, Level 2 stations, and 150-350 kW networks grow nationwide, driven by Biden's plan, ChargePoint, EVgo, and Electrify America partnerships at retailers like Walmart and 7-Eleven.

 

Key Points

The nationwide build-out of public EV chargers, focusing on DC fast charging, kW capacity, and retailer partnerships.

✅ DC fast chargers at 150-350 kW cut charge times

✅ Retailers add ports: Walmart and 7-Eleven expand access

✅ Investments surge via ChargePoint, EVgo, Electrify America

 

Today’s battery-electric vehicles deliver longer range at a lower cost, are faster and more feature-laden than earlier models. But there’s one particular challenge that still must be addressed: charging infrastructure across the U.S.

That’s a concern that President Joe Biden wants to address, with $174 billion of his proposed infrastructure bill to be used to promote the EV boom while expanding access. About 10 percent of that would help fund a nationwide network of 500,000 chargers.

However, even before a formal bill is delivered to Congress, the pace at which public charging stations are switching on is rapidly accelerating.

From Walmart to 7-Eleven, electric car owners can expect to find more and more charging stations available, as automakers strike deals with regulators, charger companies and other businesses, even as control of charging remains contested.

7-Eleven convenience chain already operates 22 charging stations and plans to grow that to 500 by the end of 2022. Walmart now lets customers charge up at 365 stores around the country and plans to more than double that over the next several years.

According to the Department of Energy, there were 20,178 public chargers available at the end of 2017. That surged to 41,400 during the first quarter of this year, as electric utilities pursue aggressive charging plans.

The vast majority of those available three years ago were “Level 2,” 240-volt AC chargers that would take as much as 12 hours to fully recharge today’s long-range BEVs, like the Tesla Model 3 or Ford Mustang Mach-E. Increasingly, new chargers are operating at 400 volts and even 800 volts, delivering anywhere from 50 to 350 kilowatts. The new Kia EV6 will be able to reach 80 percent of its full capacity in just 18 minutes.

“Going forward, unless there is a limit to the power we can access at a particular location, all our new chargers will have 150 to 350 kilowatt capacity,” Pat Romano, CEO of ChargePoint, one of the world’s largest providers of chargers, told NBC News.

ChargePoint saw its first-quarter revenues jump by 24 percent to $40.5 million this year, a surge largely driven by rapid growth in the EV market. Sales of battery cars were up 45 percent during the first quarter, compared to a year earlier. To take advantage of that growth, ChargePoint added another 6,000 active ports — the electric equivalent of a gas pump — during the quarter. It now has 112,000 active charge ports.

In March, ChargePoint became the world’s first publicly traded global EV charging network. It completed a SPAC-style merger with Switchback Energy Acquisition Corporation. Rival EVgo plans to go through a similar deal this month with the "blank check" company Climate Change Crisis Real Impact Acquisition Corporation (CRIS), which has valued the charge provider at $2.6 billion.

“We look forward to highlighting EVgo’s leadership position and its significant opportunity for long-term growth in the climate critical electrification of transport sector,” CRIS CEO David Crane said Tuesday, ahead of an investor meeting with EVgo.

Electrify America, another emerging giant, has its own deep-pocket backer. The suburban Washington, D.C.-based firm was created using $2 billion of the settlement Volkswagen agreed to pay to settle its diesel emissions scandal. It is doling that out in regular tranches and just announced $200 million in additional investments — much of that to set up new chargers.

Industry investments in BEVs will top $250 million this decade, and could even reach $500 billion. That's encouraging automakers like Volkswagen, Ford and General Motors to tie up with individual charger companies, including plans to build 30,000 chargers nationwide.

In 2019, GM set up a partnership with Bechtel to build a charger network that will stretch across the U.S.

Others are establishing networks of their own, as Tesla has done with its Supercharger network.

Each charging network is leveraging relationships to speed up installations. Ford is offering buyers of its Mustang Mach-E 250 kilowatt-hours of free energy through Electrify America stations and is also partnering with Bank of America to “let you charge where you bank,” the automaker said.

Even if Biden gets his infrastructure plan through Congress quickly, other government agencies are already getting in to the charger business, even as state power grids brace for increased loads. That includes New York State which, in May, announced plans to put 150 new ports into place by year-end.

"Expanding high-speed charging in local markets across the state is a crucial step in encouraging more drivers to choose EVs,” said Gov. Andrew Cuomo, adding that, "public-private partnerships enable New York to build a network of fast, affordable and reliable electric vehicle public charging stations in a nimble and affordable way."

One of the big questions is how many charging stations actually are needed. There are 168,000 gas stations in the U.S., according to the Dept. of Energy. But the goal is not a one-for-one match, stressed ChargePoint CEO Romano, because “80 percent of EV owners today charge at home, and energy storage promises added flexibility, … and we expect that to continue to be the case."

But there are still many potential owners who won’t be able to set up their own chargers, and a network will still be needed for those driving long distances. Until that happens, many motorists will be reluctant to switch.

 

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New investment opportunities open up as Lithuania seeks energy independence

Lithuania Wind Power Investment accelerates renewable energy expansion with utility-scale wind farms, solar power synergies, streamlined permits, and grid integration to cut imports, boost energy independence, and align with EU climate policy.

 

Key Points

Lithuania Wind Power Investment funds wind projects to raise capacity, cut imports, and secure energy independence.

✅ 700-1000 MW planned across three wind farms over 3 years

✅ Simplified permitting and faster grid connections under new policy

✅ Supports EU climate goals and Lithuania's 2030 energy independence

 

The current unstable geopolitical situation is accelerating the European Union countries' investment in renewable energy, including European wind power investments across the region. After Russia launched war against Ukraine, the EU countries began to actively address the issues of energy dependence.

For example, Lithuania, a country by the Baltic Sea, imports about two-thirds of its energy from foreign countries to meet its needs, while Germany's solar boost underscores the region's shift. Following the start of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, the Lithuanian Government urgently submitted amendments to the documents regulating the establishment of wind and solar power plants to the Parliament for consideration.

One of Lithuania's priority goals is to accelerate the construction and development of renewable energy parks so that the country will achieve full energy independence in the next eight years, by 2030, mirroring Ireland's green electricity target in the near term. Lithuania is able to produce the amount of electricity that meets the country's needs.

Ramūnas Karbauskis, the owner of Agrokoncernas Group, one of the largest companies operating in the agricultural sector in the Baltic States, has no doubt that now is the best time to invest in the development of wind power plants in Lithuania. The group plans to build three wind farms over the next three years to generate a total of about 700-1000 MW of energy, and comparable projects like Enel's 450 MW wind farm illustrate the scale achievable. With such capacity, more than half a million residential buildings can be supplied with electricity.

According to Alina Adomaitytė, Deputy General Director of Agrokoncernas Group, the company plans to invest 1-1.4 billion Euros in wind power plants in three different regions of Lithuania.

"Lithuania is changing its policy by simplifying the procedure for the construction and development of wind and solar parks. This means that their construction time will be significantly shorter, unlike markets facing renewables backlogs causing delays. At present, the technologies have improved so much that such projects pay off quickly in market conditions," explains Adomaitytė.

Agrokoncernas Group plans to build wind farms on its own lands. This has the advantage of allowing more flexibility in planning construction and meeting the requirements for such parks.

"Lithuania is a very promising country for wind parks. It is a land of plains, and the Baltic Sea provides constant and sufficient wind power, and lessons from UK offshore wind show the potential for coastal regions. So far, there are not many such parks in Lithuania, and need for them is very high in order to achieve the goals of national energy independence," says the owner of the group.

According to Adomaitytė, until now the Agrokoncernas Group companies have specialized in agriculture, but now is a particularly favorable time to enter new business areas.

"We are open to investors. One of the strategic goals of our group is to contribute to the green energy revolution in Lithuania, which is becoming a strategic goal of the entire European Union, as seen in rising solar adoption in Poland across the region."

In addition to wind farms, Agrokoncernas Group is planning the construction of the most modern deep grain processing plant in Europe. This project is managed by Agrokoncernas GDP, a subsidiary of the group. The deep grain processing plant in Lithuania is to be built by 2026. It will operate on the principle of circular production, meaning that the plant will be environmentally friendly and there will be no waste in the production process itself.

 

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Cost is the main reason stopping Canadians from buying an electric car: Survey

Canada EV Incentives drive adoption toward the 2035 zero-emission target, with rebates, federal and provincial programs boosting affordability amid concerns over charging infrastructure, range anxiety, and battery life, according to a BNN Bloomberg-Leger survey.

 

Key Points

Canada EV incentives are rebates and tax credits reducing EV costs to accelerate zero-emission vehicle adoption nationwide.

✅ Federal and provincial rebates reduce EV purchase prices

✅ Incentives offset range, battery, and charging concerns

✅ Larger incentives correlate with higher adoption rates

 

If the federal government wants to meet its ambitious EV goals of having all cars and passenger trucks sold in Canada be zero emissions by 2035, it’s going to have to do something about the cost of these vehicles.

A new survey from BNN Bloomberg and RATESDOTCA has found that cost is the number one reason stopping Canadians from buying an electric car.

The survey, which was conducted by Leger Marketing earlier this month, asked 1,511 Canadians if they were planning to purchase a new electric vehicle in the near future. It found that just over one in four, or 26 per cent of Canadians, are planning to do so, with Atlantic Canada lagging other regions. On the other hand, 19 per cent of Canadians are planning to buy a gas/diesel/hybrid card for their next purchase. 

Those who aren’t planning on buying an EV were asked what the biggest reason for their decision was. By far, it was the price of these vehicles: 31 per cent of this group cited cost as the main reason for not electrifying their ride. Another 59 per cent of respondents cited it as a concern, but not the main one. Other reasons for not wanting to buy an electric vehicle included lack of infrastructure (18 per cent), range concerns (16 per cent), and battery life and replacement (13 per cent), and some report EV shortages and wait times too.

What’s interesting is that it’s clear that government incentives for EVs are the most powerful tool right now to drive adoption, though some argue subsidies are a bad idea for Canada. When asked if further government incentives would convince them to buy an electric vehicle, 78 per cent of those surveyed said yes.

That’s right. If more governments increased the incentives offered for buying electric vehicles, reaching the goal of only selling zero emission vehicles in Canada by 2035 would no longer be a pipe dream, despite 2035 mandate skepticism from some.

At the moment, only Quebec and B.C. offer government incentives to buy an electric vehicle, even as B.C. charging bottlenecks are predicted. The federal government offers up to a $5,000 incentive, with restrictions including a limit on the total price of the vehicle, and has signaled EV sales regulations are forthcoming. Ontario previously offered a rebate of up to $14,000, however, the popular program was cancelled when the Progress Conservative government was elected in 2018.

The cancellation led to a plunge in new electric vehicle sales in Ontario, falling more than 55 per cent in the first six months of 2019 when compared to the same time period in the previous year, according to Electric Mobility Canada.

It’s no surprise that the larger the incentive, the more Canadians will be swayed to buy an electric car. Perhaps what’s surprising is that the incentive doesn’t even have to be as large as the previous Ontario rebate was. The survey found that seven per cent of Canadians would buy an electric vehicle if they got an incentive ranging anywhere from $5,001-$7,250. A full 35 per cent said a $12,500 or higher incentive would convince them.

The majority of Canadians surveyed said they use their vehicles for leisure or commuting to work. Leisure uses include running errands and seeing friends and family, of which 43 per cent of respondents said was the primary way they used their vehicle. Meanwhile, 36 per cent said they primarily used their car to commute to work.

The survey also found that incentives were more effective at convincing younger people to buy an electric vehicle. Eighty-three per cent of those under the age of 55 could be swayed by new incentives. But for those over 55, only 66 per cent said they would change their mind. 

 

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Factory Set to Elevate the United States in the Clean Energy Race

Maxeon IBC Solar Factory USA will scale clean energy with high-efficiency interdigitated back contact panels, DOE-backed manufacturing in Albuquerque, utility-scale supply, domestic production, 3 GW capacity, reduced imports, carbon-free electricity leadership.

 

Key Points

DOE-backed Albuquerque plant making high-efficiency IBC panels, 3 GW yearly, for utility-scale, domestic solar supply.

✅ 3 GW annual capacity; up to 8 million panels produced

✅ IBC cell efficiency up to 24.7% for utility-scale projects

✅ Reduces U.S. reliance on imported panels via domestic manufacturing

 

Solar energy stands as a formidable source of carbon-free electricity, with the No. 3 renewable source in the U.S. offering a clean alternative to traditional power generation methods reliant on polluting fuels. Advancements in solar technology continue to emerge, with a U.S.-based company poised to spearhead progress from a cutting-edge factory in New Mexico.

Maxeon, initially hailing from Silicon Valley in the 1980s, recently ventured into independence after separating from its parent company, SunPower, in 2020. Over the past few years, Maxeon has been manufacturing solar panels in Mexico, Malaysia, and the Philippines, as record U.S. panel shipments underscored rising demand.

Now, with backing from the U.S. Department of Energy's Loans Programs Office, Maxeon is preparing to commence construction on a new facility in Albuquerque in 2024, amid unprecedented growth in solar and storage nationwide. This state-of-the-art factory aims to produce up to 8 million panels annually, featuring the company's interdigitated back contact (IBC) technology, which has the capacity to generate three gigawatts of power each year. Notably, the entire U.S. solar industry completed five gigawatts of panels in 2022, making Maxeon's endeavor particularly ambitious and aligned with Biden's proposed tenfold increase in solar power goals.

Maxeon's presence in the United States holds the potential to reduce the country's reliance on imported panels, particularly from China. The primary focus will be on providing this advanced technology for utility departments, where pairing with increasingly affordable batteries can enhance grid reliability while shifting away from residential and commercial rooftops.

Maxeon has achieved a remarkable milestone in solar efficiency, with its latest IBC technology boasting an efficiency rating of 24.7%, as reported by PV Magazine.

This strategic move to the United States could be a game-changer, not only for Maxeon's success but also for clean power generation in a nation that has traditionally depended on external sources for its supply of solar panels, as energy-hungry Europe turns to U.S. solar equipment makers for solutions. Matt Dawson, Maxeon's Chief Technology Officer, emphasized the importance of achieving the lowest levelized cost of electricity with the lowest overall capital, a feat that China has accomplished in recent years due to the strength of its supply chain. As energy independence becomes a global concern, solar manufacturing is poised to expand beyond China, with Southeast Asia already showing signs of growth, and now the United States and possibly Europe, including Germany's solar boost during the energy crisis, following suit.

 

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Court Sees If Church Solar Panels Break Electricity Monopoly

NC WARN Solar Case tests third-party solar rights as North Carolina Supreme Court reviews Utilities Commission fines over a Greensboro church's rooftop power deal, challenging Duke Energy's monopoly, onsite electricity sales, and potential rate impacts.

 

Key Points

A North Carolina Supreme Court test of third-party solar could weaken Duke Energy's monopoly and change utility rules.

✅ NC Supreme Court weighs Utilities Commission penalty on NC WARN

✅ Case could permit onsite third-party solar sales statewide

✅ Outcome may pressure Duke Energy's monopoly and rates

 

North Carolina's highest court is taking up a case that could force new competition on the state's electricity monopolies.

The state Supreme Court on Tuesday will consider the Utilities Commission's decision to fine clean-energy advocacy group NC WARN for putting solar panels on a Greensboro church's rooftop and then charging it below-market rates for power.

The commission told NC WARN that it was producing electricity illegally and fined the group $60,000. The group said it was acting privately and appealed to the high court.

If the group prevails, it could put new pressure on Duke Energy's monopoly, which has seen an oversubscribed solar solicitation in recent procurements. State regulators say a ruling for NC WARN would allow companies to install solar equipment and sell power on site, shaving away customers and forcing Duke Energy to raise rates on everyone else.

#google#

That's because if NC WARN's deal with Faith Community Church is allowed, the precedent could open the door for others to lure away from Duke Energy, as debates over how solar owners are paid continue, "the customers with the highest profit potential, such as commercial and industrial customers with large energy needs and ample rooftop space," attorney Robert Josey Jr. wrote in a court filing.

Losing those power sales would force the country's No. 2 electricity company to make it up by charging remaining customers more to cover the cost of all of its power plants, transmission lines and repair crews, a dynamic echoed in New England's grid upgrade debates as solar grows, wrote Josey, an attorney for the Public Staff, the state's official utilities consumer advocate.

The dispute is whether NC WARN is producing electricity "for the public," which would mean it's intruding on the territory of the publicly regulated monopoly utility, or whether the move was allowed because it was a private power deal with the church alone.

 

NC WARN installed the church's power panels in 2015 as part of what it described as a test case, amid wider debates like Nova Scotia's delayed solar charge for customers, challenging Duke Energy's monopoly position to generate and sell electricity.

North Carolina was one of nine states that as of last year explicitly disallowed residential customers from buying electricity generated by solar panels on their roof from a third party that owns the system, even as Maryland opens solar subscriptions more broadly, according to the North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center. State law allows purchased or leased solar panels, but not payments simply for the power they generate.

NC WARN's goals included "reducing the effects of Duke Energy's monopoly control that has such negative impacts on power bills, clean air and water, and climate change," the church's pastor, Rev. Nelson Johnson, said in a statement the same day the clean-energy group asked state regulators to clear the plan.

Instead, the North Carolina Utilities Commission ruled the arrangement violated the state's system of legal electricity monopolies and hit the group with nearly $60,000 in fines, which would be suspended if the church's payments were refunded with interest and the solar equipment donated. The group has set aside the money and will donate the gear if it loses the Supreme Court case, NC WARN Executive Director Jim Warren said.

NC WARN's three-year agreement saw the group mount a rooftop solar array for which the church would pay about half the average retail electricity price, state officials said. The agreement states plainly that it is not a contract for the sale or lease of the $20,000 solar system, the church never owns the panels, and the low electricity price means its payback for the equipment would take 60 years, Josey wrote.

"Clearly, the only thing of value (the church) is obtaining for its payments under this agreement is the electricity created," he wrote.

In court filings, the group's attorneys have stuck to the argument that NC WARN isn't selling to the public because the deal involved a single customer only.

The deal "is not open to any other member of the public ... A private, bargained-for contract under which only one party receives electricity is not a sale of electricity 'to or for the public,' " attorney Matthew Quinn wrote to the court.

 

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