Why Electric Vehicles Are "Greener" Than Ever In All 50 States


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UCS EV emissions study shows electric vehicles produce lower life-cycle emissions than gasoline cars across all states, factoring tailpipe, grid mix, power plant sources, and renewable energy, delivering mpg-equivalent advantages nationwide.

 

Key Points

UCS study comparing EV and gas life-cycle emissions, finding EVs cleaner than new gas cars in every U.S. region.

✅ Average EV equals 93 mpg gas car on emissions.

✅ Cleaner than 50 mpg gas cars in 97% of U.S.

✅ Regional grid mix included: tailpipe to power plant.

 

One of the cautions cited by electric vehicle (EV) naysayers is that they merely shift emissions from the tailpipe to the local grid’s power source, implicating state power grids as a whole, and some charging efficiency claims get the math wrong, too. And while there is a kernel of truth to this notion—they’re indeed more benign to the environment in states where renewable energy resources are prevalent—the average EV is cleaner to run than the average new gasoline vehicle in all 50 states. 

That’s according to a just-released study conducted the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), which determined that global warming emissions related to EVs has fallen by 15 percent since 2018. For 97 percent of the U.S., driving an electric car is equivalent or better for the planet than a gasoline-powered model that gets 50 mpg. 

In fact, the organization says the average EV currently on the market is now on a par, environmentally, with an internal combustion vehicle that’s rated at 93 mpg. The most efficient gas-driven model sold in the U.S. gets 59 mpg, and EV sales still trail gas cars despite such comparisons, with the average new petrol-powered car at 31 mpg.

For a gasoline car, the UCS considers a vehicle’s tailpipe emissions, as well as the effects of pumping crude oil from the ground, transporting it to a refinery, creating gasoline, and transporting it to filling stations. For electric vehicles, the UCS’ environmental estimates include both emissions from the power plants themselves, along with those created by the production of coal, natural gas or other fossil fuels used to generate electricity, and they are often mischaracterized by claims about battery manufacturing emissions that don’t hold up. 

Of course the degree to which an EV ultimately affects the atmosphere still varies from one part of the country to another, depending on the local power source. In some parts of the country, driving the average new gasoline car will produce four to eight times the emissions of the average EV, a fact worth noting for those wondering if it’s the time to buy an electric car today. The UCS says the average EV driven in upstate New York produces total emissions that would be equivalent to a gasoline car that gets an impossible 255-mpg. In even the dirtiest areas for generating electricity, EVs are responsible for as much emissions as a conventionally powered car that gets over 40 mpg.

 

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U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales Soar Into 2024

U.S. EV Sales Growth reflects rising consumer demand, expanding market share, new tax credits, and robust charging infrastructure, as automakers boost output and quarterly sales under the Inflation Reduction Act drive adoption across states.

 

Key Points

It is the rise in U.S. EV sales and market share, driven by incentives, charging growth, and automaker investment.

✅ Quarterly EV sales and share have risen since Q3 2021.

✅ Share topped 10% in Q3 2023, with states far above.

✅ IRA credits and chargers lower costs and boost adoption.

 

Contrary to any skepticism, the demand for electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States is not dwindling. Data from the Alliance for Automotive Innovation highlights a significant and ongoing increase in EV sales from 2021 through the third quarter of 2023. An upward trend in quarterly sales (depicted as bars on the left axis) and EV sales shares (illustrated by the red line on the right axis) is evident. Sales surged from about 125,000 in Q1 2021 to 185,000 in Q4 2021, and from around 300,000 in Q1 2023 to 375,000 by Q3 2023. Notably, by Q3 2023, annual U.S. EV sales exceeded 1 million for the first time, a milestone often cited as the tipping point for mass adoption in the U.S., marking a 58% increase over the same period in 2022.

EV sales have shown consistent quarterly growth since Q3 2021, and the proportion of EVs in total light-duty vehicle sales is also on the rise. EVs’ share of new sales increased from roughly 3% in Q1 2021 to about 7% in 2022, and further to over 10% in Q3 2023, though they are still behind gas cars in overall market share, for now. For context, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Automotive Trends Report, EVs have reached a 10% market share more quickly than conventional hybrids without a plug, which took about 25 years.

State-level data also indicates that several states exceed national averages in EV sales. California, for example, saw EVs comprising nearly 27% of sales through September 2023, even as a brief Q1 2024 market share dip has been noted nationally. Additionally, 12 states plus the District of Columbia had EV sales shares between 10% and 20% through Q3 2023.

EV sales data by automaker reveal that most companies sold more EVs in Q2 or Q3 2023 than in any previous quarter, mirroring global growth that went from zero to 2 million in five years. Except for Ford, each automaker sold more EVs in the first three quarters of 2023 than in all of 2022. EV sales in Q3 2023 notably increased compared to Q3 2022 for companies like BMW, Tesla, and Volkswagen.

Despite some production scalebacks by Ford and General Motors, these companies, along with others, remain dedicated to an electric future and expect to sell more EVs than ever. The growing consumer interest in EVs is also reflected in recent surveys by McKinsey, J.D. Power, and Consumer Reports, and echoed in Europe where the share of electric cars grew during lockdown months, showing an increasing intent to purchase EVs and a declining interest in gasoline vehicles.

Furthermore, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 introduces new tax credits, potentially making EVs more affordable than gasoline counterparts. Investments in charging infrastructure are also expected to increase, especially as EV adoption could drive a 38% rise in U.S. electricity demand, with over $21 billion allocated to boost public chargers from around 160,000 in 2023 to nearly 1 million by 2030.

The shift to EVs is crucial for reducing climate pollution, enhancing public health, and generating economic benefits and jobs, and by 2021 plug-in vehicles had already traveled 19 billion miles on electricity, underscoring real-world progress toward these goals. The current data and trends indicate a robust and positive future for EVs in the U.S., reinforcing the need for strong standards to further encourage investment and consumer confidence in electric vehicles.

 

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EV charging to solar panels: How connected tech is changing the homes we live in

Connected Home Energy Technologies integrate solar panels, smart meters, EV charging, battery storage, and IoT energy management to cut costs, optimize demand response, and monitor usage in real time for safer, lower-carbon homes.

 

Key Points

Devices and systems managing home energy: solar PV, smart meters, EV chargers, and storage to cut costs and emissions.

✅ Real-time visibility via apps, smart meters, and IoT sensors

✅ Integrates solar PV, batteries, and EV charging with the grid

✅ Enables demand response, lower bills, and lower carbon

 

Driven by advances in tech and the advent of high-speed internet connections, many of us now have easy access to a raft of information about the buildings we live in.

Thanks to the proliferation of hardware and software within the home, this trend shows no sign of letting up and comes in many different forms, from indoor air quality monitors to “smart” doorbells which provide us with visual, real-time notifications when someone is attempting to access our property.

Residential renewable electricity generation is also starting to gain traction, with a growing number of people installing solar panels in the hope of reducing bills and their environmental footprint.

In the U.S. alone, the residential solar market installed 738 megawatts of capacity in the third quarter of 2020, a 14% jump compared to the second quarter, according to a recent report from the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie.

Earlier this month, California-headquartered SunPower — which specializes in the design, production and delivery of solar panels and systems — announced it was rolling out an app which will enable homeowners to assess and manage their energy generation, usage and battery storage settings with their mobile, as California looks to EVs for grid stability amid broader electrification.

The service will be available to customers using its SunPower Eqiunox system and represents yet another instance of how connected technologies can provide us with valuable information about how buildings operate.

Similar offerings in this increasingly crowded marketplace include so-called “smart” meters, which allow consumers to see how much energy they are using and money they are spending in real time.

Elsewhere products such as Hive, from Centrica, enable users to install a range of connected kit — from plugs and lighting to thermostats and indoor cameras — that can be controlled via an app on their cellphone and, in some cases, their voice. 

Connected car charging
Solar panels represent one way that sustainable tech can be integrated into homes. Other examples include the installation of charging points for electric vehicles, as EV growth challenges state grids in many markets.

With governments around the world looking to phase-out the sale of diesel and gasoline vehicles and encourage consumers to buy electric, and Model 3's utility impact underscoring likely shifts in demand, residential charging systems could become an integral part of the built environment in the years ahead.

Firms offering home-based, connected, charging include Pod Point and BP Pulse. Both of these services include apps which provide data such as how much energy has been used, the cost of charging and charge history.  

Another firm, Wallbox, recently announced it was launching its first electric vehicle charger for North American homes.

The company, which is based in Spain, said the system was compatible with all types of electric vehicles, would allow customers to schedule charges, and could be voice-controlled through Google Assistant and Amazon Alexa, while mobile energy storage promises added flexibility for strained grids.

Away from the private sector, governments are also making efforts to encourage the development of home charging infrastructure.

Over the weekend, U.K. authorities said the Electric Vehicle Homecharge Scheme — which gives drivers as much as £350 (around $487) toward a charging system — would be extended and expanded, targeting those who live in leasehold and rented properties, even as UK grid capacity for EVs remains under scrutiny.

Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, described the government’s announcement as “welcome and a step in the right direction.”

“As we race towards the phase out of sales of new petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2030, we need to accelerate the expansion of the electric vehicle charging network, and proper grid management can ensure EVs are accommodated at scale,” he added.

“An electric vehicle revolution will need the home and workplace installations this announcement will encourage, but also a massive increase in on-street public charging and rapid charge points on our strategic road network.”

Change afoot, but challenges ahead
As attempts to decarbonize buildings and society ramp up, the way our homes look and function could be on the cusp of quite a big shift.

“Grid-connected home generation technologies such as solar electric panels will be important in the shift to a 100% renewable electricity grid, but decarbonising the electricity supply is only one part of the transition,” Peter Tyldesley, chief executive of the Centre for Alternative Technology, told CNBC via email.

With reference to Britain, Tyldesley went on to explain how his organization envisaged “just under 10% of electricity in a future zero carbon society coming from solar PV, utilising 15-20% of … U.K. roof area.” This, he said, compared to over 75% of electricity coming from wind power. 

Heating, Tyldesley went on to state, represented “the bigger challenge.”

“To decarbonise the U.K.’s housing stock at the scale and speed needed to get to zero carbon, we’ll need to refurbish possibly a million houses every year for the next few decades to improve their insulation and airtightness and to install heat pumps or other non-fossil fuel heating,” he said.

“To do this, we urgently need a co-ordinated national programme with a commitment to multi-year government investment,” he added.

On the subject of buildings becoming increasingly connected, providing us with a huge amount of data about how they function, Tyldesley sought to highlight some of the opportunities this could create. 

“Studies of the roll out of smart metering technology have shown that consumers use less energy when they are able to monitor their consumption in real time, so this kind of technology can be a useful part of behaviour change programmes when combined with other forms of support for home efficiency improvements,” he said.

“The roll out of smart appliances can go one step further — responding to signals from the grid and, through vehicle-to-grid power, helping to shift consumption away from peak times towards periods when more renewable energy is available,” he added.

 

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The N.L. government is pushing the electric car but Labrador's infrastructure is lagging behind

Labrador EV Charging Infrastructure faces gaps, with few fast chargers; Level 2 dominates, fueling range anxiety for Tesla and Chevrolet Bolt drivers, despite rebates and Newfoundland's network linking St. John's to Port aux Basques.

 

Key Points

It refers to the current and planned network of Level 2 and Level 3 charging sites across Labrador.

✅ 2 public Level 2 chargers: Happy Valley-Goose Bay and Churchill Falls

✅ Phase 2: 3 fast chargers planned for HV-GB, Churchill Falls, Labrador City

✅ $2,500 rebates offered; rural range anxiety still deters buyers

 

Retired pilot Allan Carlson is used to crossing Labrador by air.

But he recently traversed the Big Land in an entirely new way, driving for hours on end in his electric car.

The vehicle in question is a Tesla Model S P100D, which Carlson says he can drive up to 500 kilometres on a full charge — and sometimes even a little more.

After catching a ferry to Blanc-Sablon, Que., earlier this month, he managed to reach Happy Valley-Goose Bay, over 600 kilometres away.

To get there, though, he had to use the public charging station in Blanc-Sablon. He also had to push the limits of what his car could muster. 

But more affordable mass-market electric vehicles don't have the battery power of a top-of-the-range Tesla, prompting the Big Land's first EV owner to wonder when Labrador infrastructure will catch up to the high-speed charging network recently unveiled across Newfoundland this summer.

Phillip Rideout, an electrician who lives in Nain, bought a Chevrolet Bolt EV for his son — the range of which tops out at under 350 kilometres, depending on driving patterns and weather conditions.

He's comfortable driving the car within Nain but said he's concerned about traveling to southern Labrador on a single charge.

"It's a start in getting these 14 charging stations across the island," Rideout said of Newfoundland's new network, "but there is still more work to be done."

The provincial government continues to push an electric-vehicle future, however, even as energy efficiency rankings trail the national average, despite Labradorians like Rideout feeling left out of the loop.

Bernard Davis, minister of environment and climate change, earlier this month announced that government is accepting applications for its electric-vehicle rebate program, as the N.W.T. EV initiative pursues similar goals.

Under the $500,000 program, anyone looking to buy a new or used EV would be entitled to $2,500 in rebates, an attempt by the provincial government to increase EV adoption.

But according to a survey conducted this year by polling firm Leger for the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturer's Association, 51 per cent of rural Canadians found a lack of fast-charging public infrastructure to be a major deterrent to buying an electric car, even as Atlantic EV interest lags overall, according to recent data.

While Newfoundland's 14-charger network, operated by N.L. Hydro and Newfoundland Power, allows drivers to travel from St. John's to Port aux Basques, and 10 new fast-charging stations are planned along the Trans-Canada in New Brunswick, Labrador in contrast has just two publicly available charging locations: one at the YMCA in Happy Valley-Goose Bay and the other near the town office of Churchill Falls.

This is the proposed second phase of additional Level 2 and Level 3 charging locations across Labrador. (TakeChargeNL)
These are slower, Level 2 chargers, as opposed to newer Level 3 charging stations on the island. A Level 2 system averages 50 kilometres of range per hour, and a Level 3 systems can add up to 250 kilometres within the same time frame, making them about five times faster.

Even though all of the fast-charging stations have gone to Newfoundland, MHA for Lake Melville Perry Trimper is optimistic about Labrador's electric future.

Trimper has owned an EV in St. Johns since 2016, but told CBC he'd be comfortable driving it in Happy Valley-Goose Bay.

He acknowledged, however, that prospective owners in Labrador might not be able to drive far from their home charging outlet. 

More promises
If rural skepticism driven by poor infrastructure continues, the urban population could lead the way in adoption, allowing the new subsidies to disproportionately go toward larger population centres, Davis acknowledged.

"Obviously people are not going to purchase electric vehicles if they don't believe they can charge them where they want to be or where they want to go," Davis said in an interview in early September.

Under the provincial government's Phase 2 proposal, Newfoundland and Labrador is projected to get 19 charging stations, with three going to Labrador in Happy Valley-Goose Bay, Churchill Falls and Labrador City, taking cues from NB Power's public network in building regional coverage.

Davis would not commit to a specific cutoff period for the rebate program or a timeline for the first fast-charging stations in Labrador to be built.

"At some point, we are not going to need to place any subsidy on electric vehicles," he said, "but that time is not today and that's why these subsidies are important right now."

Future demand 
Goose Bay Motors manager Joel Hamlen thinks drivers in Labrador could shift away from gas vehicles eventually, even as EV shortages and wait times persist.

But he says it'll take investment into a charging network to get there.

"If we can get something set up where these people can travel down the roads and use these vehicles in the province … I am sure there will be even more of a demand," Hamlen said.

 

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Alectra is 'leading the charge' when it comes to electric vehicles

Alectra EV Leadership Award highlights Plug'n Drive and CEA recognition for AlectraDrive, GridExchange, smart charging, and clean energy innovation at the GRE&T Centre, advancing Canadian EV adoption, utility-led programs, rate design, and smart grid integration.

 

Key Points

An award recognizing Alectra Utilities for leading EV programs and clean energy innovation driven by its GRE&T Centre.

✅ Honors utility-led EV programs: AlectraDrive @Work, @Home, GridExchange

✅ Recognizes smart grid, charging, and innovative rate design

✅ Endorsed by Plug'n Drive and CEA; SEPA and Corporate Knights honors

 

Plug'n Drive and the Canadian Electricity Association (CEA) have awarded Alectra Utilities with the 'Tom Mitchell Electric Vehicle Utility Leadership Award' for its programs: AlectraDrive @Work, AlectraDrive @Home, GridExchange, which explores models where EV owners sell power back to the grid, Advantage Power Pricing and York University Electric Bus Simulation Study. All of these initiatives operate out of Alectra's Green Energy & Technology Centre (GRE&T Centre) and align with emerging vehicle-to-grid integration pilots nationwide.

"We appreciate receiving this award from Plug'n Drive and the CEA," said Brian Bentz, President and CEO, Alectra Inc. "The work that the GRE&T Centre does is an important part of our effort to help build a clean energy future and embrace new technologies like EV charging infrastructure and vehicle-to-grid pilots to help our customers."

The Electric Vehicle Awards, now in their sixth year, recognize Ca­nadian car dealerships and electricity utilities that are leaders in the sale and promotion of electric vehicles, from dedicated education efforts like the EV education centre in Toronto to consumer events such as the Quebec Electric Vehicle Show that raise awareness. Electricity utilities are recognized based on the merits and impacts of utility led EV programs and initiatives.

Earlier this year, Alectra was named Public Power Utility of the Year by the Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA) and ranked third in Corporate Knights 'Best 50 Corporate Citizens', as Canadian innovators deploy V1G EV chargers that support smart, grid-friendly charging.

 

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Total Cost of EV Ownership: New Data Reveals Long-Term Savings

Electric vehicles may cost more upfront but often save money long-term. A new MIT study shows the total cost of EV ownership is lower than gas cars when factoring in fuel, maintenance, and emissions.

 

Total cost of EV ownership is the focus of new MIT research showing electric vehicles offer both financial and environmental benefits over time.

✅ Electric vehicles cost more upfront but save money over their lifetime through lower fuel and maintenance costs

✅ MIT study confirms EVs have lower emissions and total ownership costs than most gas-powered cars

✅ New interactive tool helps consumers compare climate and cost impacts of EVs, hybrids, and traditional vehicles

Electric vehicles are better for the climate than gas‑powered cars, but many Americans are still reluctant to buy them. One reason: The larger upfront cost.

New data published Thursday shows that despite the higher sticker price, electric cars may actually save drivers money in the long-run.

To reach this conclusion, a team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology calculated both the carbon dioxide emissions and full lifetime cost — including purchase price, maintenance and fuel — for nearly every new car model on the market.

They found electric cars were easily more climate friendly than gas-burning ones. Over a lifetime, they were often cheaper, too.

Jessika Trancik, an associate professor of energy studies at M.I.T. who led the research, said she hoped the data would “help people learn about how those upfront costs are spread over the lifetime of the car.”

For electric cars, lower maintenance costs and the lower costs of charging compared with gasoline prices tend to offset the higher upfront price over time. (Battery-electric engines have fewer moving parts that can break compared with gas-powered engines and they don’t require oil changes. Electric vehicles also use regenerative braking, which reduces wear and tear.)

As EV adoption continues to boom, more consumers are realizing the long-term savings and climate benefits. Ontario’s investment in EV charging stations reflects how infrastructure is beginning to catch up with demand. Despite regional energy pricing differences, EV charging costs remain lower than gasoline in nearly every U.S. city.

The cars are greener over time, too, despite the more emissions-intensive battery manufacturing process. Dr. Trancik estimates that an electric vehicle’s production emissions would be offset in anywhere from six to 18 months, depending on how clean the energy grid is where the car is charging.

In some areas, EVs are even being used to power homes, enhancing their value as a sustainable investment. Recent EPA rules aim to boost EV sales, further signaling government support. California leads the nation in EV charging infrastructure, setting a model for nationwide adoption.

The new data showed hybrid cars, which run on a combination of fuel and battery power, and can sometimes be plugged in, had more mixed results for both emissions and costs. Some hybrids were cheaper and spewed less planet-warming carbon dioxide than regular cars, but others were in the same emissions and cost range as gas-only vehicles.

Traditional gas-burning cars were usually the least climate friendly option, though long-term costs and emissions spanned a wide range. Compact cars were usually cheaper and more efficient, while gas-powered SUVs and luxury sedans landed on the opposite end of the spectrum.

Dr. Trancik’s team released the data in an interactive online tool to help people quantify the true costs of their car-buying decisions — both for the planet and their budget. The new estimates update a study published in 2016 and add to a growing body of research underscoring the potential lifetime savings of electric cars.

Take the Tesla Model 3, the most popular electric car in the United States. The M.I.T. team estimated the lifetime cost of the most basic model as comparable to a Nissan Altima that sells for $11,000 less upfront. (That’s even though Tesla’s federal tax incentive for electric vehicles has ended.)

Toyota’s Hybrid RAV4 S.U.V. also ends up cheaper in the long run than a similar traditional RAV4, a national bestseller, despite a higher retail price.

Hawaii, Alaska and parts of New England have some of the highest average electricity costs, while parts of the Midwest, West and South tend to have lower rates. Gas prices are lower along the Gulf Coast and higher in California. But an analysis from the Union of Concerned Scientists still found that charging a vehicle was more cost effective than filling up at the pump across 50 major American cities. “We saw potential savings everywhere,” said David Reichmuth, a senior engineer for the group’s Clean Transportation Program.

Still, the upfront cost of an electric vehicle continues to be a barrier for many would-be owners.

The federal government offers a tax credit for some new electric vehicle purchases, but that does nothing to reduce the initial purchase price and does not apply to used cars. That means it disproportionately benefits wealthier Americans. Some states, like California, offer additional incentives. President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. has pledged to offer rebates that help consumers swap inefficient, old cars for cleaner new ones, and to create 500,000 more electric vehicle charging stations, too.

EV sales projections for 2024 suggest continued acceleration, especially as costs fall and policy support expands. Chris Gearhart, director of the Center for Integrated Mobility Sciences at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, said electric cars will become more price competitive in coming years as battery prices drop. At the same time, new technologies to reduce exhaust emissions are making traditional cars more expensive. “With that trajectory, you can imagine that even immediately at the purchase price level, certain smaller sedans could reach purchase price parity in the next couple of years,” Dr. Gearhart said.

 

Related Pages:

EV Boom Unexpectedly Benefits All Electricity Customers

Ontario Invests in New EV Charging Stations

EV Charging Cost Still Beats Gasoline, Study Finds

EPA Rules Expected to Boost U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales

California Takes the Lead in Electric Vehicle and Charging Station Adoption

EVs to Power Homes: New Technology Turns Cars Into Backup Batteries

U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales Soar Into 2024

 

 

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Solar is now ‘cheapest electricity in history’, confirms IEA

IEA World Energy Outlook 2020 highlights solar power as the cheapest electricity, projects faster renewables growth, models net-zero pathways, assesses COVID-19 impacts, oil and gas demand, and policy scenarios including STEPS, SDS, and NZE2050.

 

Key Points

A flagship IEA report analyzing energy trends, COVID-19 impacts, renewables growth, and pathways to net-zero in 2050.

✅ Solar now the cheapest electricity in most major markets

✅ Scenarios: STEPS, SDS, NZE2050, plus delayed recovery case

✅ Oil and gas demand uncertain; CO2 peak needs stronger policy

 

The world’s best solar power schemes now offer the “cheapest…electricity in history” with the technology cheaper than coal and gas in most major countries.

That is according to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2020. The 464-page outlook, published today by the IEA, also outlines the “extraordinarily turbulent” impact of coronavirus and the “highly uncertain” future of global energy use and progress in the global energy transition over the next two decades.

Reflecting this uncertainty, this year’s version of the highly influential annual outlook offers four “pathways” to 2040, all of which see a major rise in renewables across markets. The IEA’s main scenario has 43% more solar output by 2040 than it expected in 2018, partly due to detailed new analysis showing that solar power is 20-50% cheaper than thought.

Despite a more rapid rise for renewables and a “structural” decline for coal, the IEA says it is too soon to declare a peak in global oil use, unless there is stronger climate action. Similarly, it says demand for gas could rise 30% by 2040, unless the policy response to global warming steps up.

This means that, while global CO2 emissions have effectively peaked flatlining in 2019 according to the IEA, they are “far from the immediate peak and decline” needed to stabilise the climate. The IEA says achieving net-zero emissions will require “unprecedented” efforts from every part of the global economy, not just the power sector.

For the first time, the IEA includes detailed modeling of a 1.5C pathway that reaches global net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. It says individual behaviour change, such as working from home “three days a week”, would play an “essential” role in reaching this new “net-zero emissions by 2050 case” (NZE2050).

Future scenarios
The IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) arrives every autumn and contains some of the most detailed and heavily scrutinised analysis of the global energy system. Over hundreds of densely packed pages, it draws on thousands of datapoints and the IEA’s World Energy Model.

The outlook includes several different scenarios, to reflect uncertainty over the many decisions that will affect the future path of the global economy, as well as the route taken out of the coronavirus crisis during the “critical” next decade. The WEO also aims to inform policymakers by showing how their plans would need to change if they want to shift onto a more sustainable path, including creating the right clean electricity investment incentives to accelerate progress.

This year it omits the “current policies scenario” (CPS), which usually “provides a baseline…by outlining a future in which no new policies are added to those already in place”. This is because “[i]t is difficult to imagine this ‘business as-usual’ approach prevailing in today’s circumstances”.

Those circumstances are the unprecedented fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, which remains highly uncertain as to its depth and duration. The crisis is expected to cause a dramatic decline in global energy demand in 2020, with oil demand also dropping sharply as fossil fuels took the biggest hit.

The main WEO pathway is again the “stated policies scenario” (STEPS, formerly NPS). This shows the impact of government pledges to go beyond the current policy baseline. Crucially, however, the IEA makes its own assessment of whether governments are credibly following through on their targets.

The report explains:

“The STEPS is designed to take a detailed and dispassionate look at the policies that are either in place or announced in different parts of the energy sector. It takes into account long-term energy and climate targets only to the extent that they are backed up by specific policies and measures. In doing so, it holds up a mirror to the plans of today’s policy makers and illustrates their consequences, without second-guessing how these plans might change in future.”

The outlook then shows how plans would need to change to plot a more sustainable path, highlighting efforts to replace fossil fuels with electricity in time to meet climate goals. It says its “sustainable development scenario” (SDS) is “fully aligned” with the Paris target of holding warming “well-below 2C…and pursuing efforts to limit [it] to 1.5C”. (This interpretation is disputed.)

The SDS sees CO2 emissions reach net-zero by 2070 and gives a 50% chance of holding warming to 1.65C, with the potential to stay below 1.5C if negative emissions are used at scale.

The IEA has not previously set out a detailed pathway to staying below 1.5C with 50% probability, with last year’s outlook only offering background analysis and some broad paragraphs of narrative.

For the first time this year, the WEO has “detailed modelling” of a “net-zero emissions by 2050 case” (NZE2050). This shows what would need to happen for CO2 emissions to fall to 45% below 2010 levels by 2030 on the way to net-zero by 2050, with a 50% chance of meeting the 1.5C limit, with countries such as Canada's net-zero electricity needs in focus to get there.

The final pathway in this year’s outlook is a “delayed recovery scenario” (DRS), which shows what might happen if the coronavirus pandemic lingers and the global economy takes longer to recover, with knock-on reductions in the growth of GDP and energy demand.

 

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