Elon Musk says cheaper, more powerful electric vehicle batteries are 3 years off

U.S. EV Sales Growth reflects rising consumer demand, expanding market share, new tax credits, and robust charging infrastructure, as automakers boost output and quarterly sales under the Inflation Reduction Act drive adoption across states.

Key Points

It is the rise in U.S. EV sales and market share, driven by incentives, charging growth, and automaker investment.

✅ Quarterly EV sales and share have risen since Q3 2021.

✅ Share topped 10% in Q3 2023, with states far above.

✅ IRA credits and chargers lower costs and boost adoption.

Contrary to any skepticism, the demand for electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States is not dwindling. Data from the Alliance for Automotive Innovation highlights a significant and ongoing increase in EV sales from 2021 through the third quarter of 2023. An upward trend in quarterly sales (depicted as bars on the left axis) and EV sales shares (illustrated by the red line on the right axis) is evident. Sales surged from about 125,000 in Q1 2021 to 185,000 in Q4 2021, and from around 300,000 in Q1 2023 to 375,000 by Q3 2023. Notably, by Q3 2023, annual U.S. EV sales exceeded 1 million for the first time, a milestone often cited as the tipping point for mass adoption in the U.S., marking a 58% increase over the same period in 2022.

EV sales have shown consistent quarterly growth since Q3 2021, and the proportion of EVs in total light-duty vehicle sales is also on the rise. EVs’ share of new sales increased from roughly 3% in Q1 2021 to about 7% in 2022, and further to over 10% in Q3 2023, though they are still behind gas cars in overall market share, for now. For context, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Automotive Trends Report, EVs have reached a 10% market share more quickly than conventional hybrids without a plug, which took about 25 years.

State-level data also indicates that several states exceed national averages in EV sales. California, for example, saw EVs comprising nearly 27% of sales through September 2023, even as a brief Q1 2024 market share dip has been noted nationally. Additionally, 12 states plus the District of Columbia had EV sales shares between 10% and 20% through Q3 2023.

EV sales data by automaker reveal that most companies sold more EVs in Q2 or Q3 2023 than in any previous quarter, mirroring global growth that went from zero to 2 million in five years. Except for Ford, each automaker sold more EVs in the first three quarters of 2023 than in all of 2022. EV sales in Q3 2023 notably increased compared to Q3 2022 for companies like BMW, Tesla, and Volkswagen.

Despite some production scalebacks by Ford and General Motors, these companies, along with others, remain dedicated to an electric future and expect to sell more EVs than ever. The growing consumer interest in EVs is also reflected in recent surveys by McKinsey, J.D. Power, and Consumer Reports, and echoed in Europe where the share of electric cars grew during lockdown months, showing an increasing intent to purchase EVs and a declining interest in gasoline vehicles.

Furthermore, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 introduces new tax credits, potentially making EVs more affordable than gasoline counterparts. Investments in charging infrastructure are also expected to increase, especially as EV adoption could drive a 38% rise in U.S. electricity demand, with over $21 billion allocated to boost public chargers from around 160,000 in 2023 to nearly 1 million by 2030.

The shift to EVs is crucial for reducing climate pollution, enhancing public health, and generating economic benefits and jobs, and by 2021 plug-in vehicles had already traveled 19 billion miles on electricity, underscoring real-world progress toward these goals. The current data and trends indicate a robust and positive future for EVs in the U.S., reinforcing the need for strong standards to further encourage investment and consumer confidence in electric vehicles.

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U.S. Renewable Energy Record 28% signals a cleaner power grid as wind, solar, and hydroelectric output soar; EIA data shows cost-competitive clean energy reshaping the electricity mix and reducing carbon emissions across regions.

Key Points

EIA-reported April share of electricity from wind, solar, and hydro, reflecting cost-driven growth in U.S. clean power.

✅ Wind, solar additions dominated recent U.S. capacity buildouts

✅ Lower levelized costs make renewables most competitive

✅ Seasonal factors and outages lowered fossil and nuclear output

The amount of electricity generated by renewable resources hit a record 28% in April, a breakthrough number that shows how important renewable energy has become in U.S. energy markets as it surpassed coal in 2022 overall.

"It's a 'Wow' moment," said Peter Kelly-Detwiler, an energy analyst and author of "The Energy Switch," a recent book about the transition to a carbon-free energy economy.

The percentage of U.S. electricity produced by renewable energy from wind, solar and hydroelectric dams has been steadily rising, from 8.6% in April 2001 to this April's 28%. Those numbers were released this week by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which tracks energy data for the nation.

What explains the surge?
There are several reasons. At the top is that wind and solar installations dominated U.S. energy buildouts.

"Basically, the only things we've added to the grid in the past decade are wind, solar and natural gas," said Harrison Fell, an economist and engineer at Columbia University, where he co-leads the Power Sector and Renewables Research Initiative.

That's happening for two reasons. The first is cost. Renewables are simply the most economically competitive power currently available, Kelly-Detwiler said.

In 2021, the cost of producing a megawatt-hour of electricity from a new wind turbine was $26 to $50. The same amount of electricity from the cheapest type of natural gas plant ranged from $45 to $74, according to Lazard, a financial advisory firm that publishes annual estimates of the cost of producing electricity. 

Federal and state mandates and incentives to increase the amount of clean energy used also help, Fell said, as renewables reached 25.5% of U.S. electricity recently. 

"When you do the math on what's the most profitable thing to add, it's often going to be wind and solar at this stage," he said.

Was weather a factor?
Yes. April tends to be a particularly windy month, and this spring was windier than most, Fell said.

There's also less power coming into the grid from fossil fuels and nuclear in the spring. That's because electricity demand is generally lower because of the mild weather and fossil fuel and nuclear power plants use the time for maintenance and refueling, which reduces their production, he said.

Another surprise was that in April, wind and solar power together produced more electricity than nuclear plants nationwide. 

Historically, nuclear power plants, which are carbon-neutral, have reliably produced about 20% of America's electricity. In April that number dropped to 18% while wind and solar combined stood at 19.6%.

The nuclear decrease is partly a result of the shutdown of two plants in the past year, Indian Point in New York state and Palisades in Michigan, as well as scheduled closures for maintenance.

Will the trend continue?
When all U.S. carbon-neutral energy sources are added together – nuclear, wind, hydroelectric and solar – almost 46% of U.S. electricity in April came from sources that don't contribute greenhouse gases to the environment, federal data shows.  

"It's a milestone," Kelly-Detwiler said. "But in a few years, we'll look back and say, 'This was a nice steppingstone to the next 'Wow!' moment."

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100% Renewable Energy Transition unites solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal, and bioenergy with storage, smart grids, and sector coupling, delivering decarbonization, energy security, and lower LCOE amid post-Fukushima policy shifts and climate resilience goals.

Key Points

It is a pathway using all renewables plus storage and grids to fully decarbonize power, heat, transport, and industry.

✅ Integrates solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and bioenergy

✅ Uses storage, smart grids, and sector coupling for reliability

✅ Requires enabling policies, finance, and rapid deployment

Renewable energy organizations representing different spheres of the renewable energy community have gathered on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima nuclear accident to emphasize that renewable energies are not only available in abundance, with global renewable power on course to shatter more records, but ready to deliver a renewable world.

The combination of all renewable technologies, be it bioenergy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy, solar energy or wind power, in particular in combination with storage options, can satisfy all energy needs of mankind, be it for power, heating/cooling, transportation, or industrial processes.

Renewables have seen tremendous growth rates and cost reduction over the past two decades, but there are still many barriers that need to be addressed for a faster renewable energy deployment to eventually achieve global 100% renewable energy, as outlined in an on the road to 100% renewables initiative that charts the path. It is up to political decision-makers to create the legislative and regulatory conditions so that the renewable energy community can act as fast as needed.

Such rapid switch towards renewables is not only a must in light of nuclear risks and the growing threats of climate change, but also the necessary response to the current pandemic situation. And it will allow those hundreds of millions of humans in unserved areas to get for the first time ever access to modern energy services, as noted by a new IRENA report that details how renewables can decarbonise the energy sector and improve lives.

Speakers from the renewable energy community presented today in a joint webinar that a renewable future is a realistic vision, representing:

Energy Watch Group, Global100RE Platform, Global100RE Strategy Group, International Geothermal Association, ISEP Japan, REN Alliance, World Bioenergy Association, World Wind Energy Association.

Dr. Tetsunari Iida, Director of the Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies ISEP Japan:

Ten years ago, on 11 March 2021, the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident occurred. It is a "coincidence of global history" that it now coincides with the starting point of the 100% renewable energy initiative that is accelerating around the world.

The world has changed dramatically since 311. Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Taiwan, South Korea, China and many other countries were all shocked by 311 and shifted their focus from nuclear power to renewable energy, and in the U.S. clean energy industries are setting sights on market majority to accelerate this trend. The next ten years will be the decade in which this perception will rapidly become the "new reality". 311 was the "starting point" for a structural energy shift in world history.

Hans-Josef Fell, former MP, President of the Energy Watch Group and co-initiator of the Global100RE Strategy Group:

The disasters of Fukushima and Chernobyl are urging the entire world to quickly end the use of atomic energy, and many call for a fossil fuel lockdown to catalyze a climate revolution alongside the transition. Contrary to what is often claimed, nuclear energy cannot make a contribution to climate protection, but only creates immense problems with toxic radioactivity emissions, nuclear waste, atomic bomb material and the dangers of a nuclear catastrophe. In contrast, 100% renewable energies until 2030 can help achieve climate protection and a simultaneous nuclear phase-out, according to a recently published statement by a world-leading group of energy researchers from the USA, EU and Australia.

Their research suggests that a 100% renewable energy supply, including storage systems, can provide full energy security for all of mankind by 2030 and will even be cheaper than the existing nuclear and fossil energy supply, and with over 30% of global electricity already from renewables, momentum is strong. The only requirement for implementation is the right decisions taken by decision makers both in governments and industry. All technical and economic prerequisites for a disruptive conversion of the global energy supply to 100% renewable energies are already in place.

Hon. Peter Rae AO, President of WWEA and Honorary Chairman of the REN Alliance:

40 years ago, the idea of developing nuclear power appealed to me as a non-polluting method of generating electricity. So I studied it. How to deal with waste and how to ensure it would not create a danger to life. Along came Chernobyl and other accidents. Storage of waste was leaving dangerous hiding places while some waste was alleged to be dumped at sea. I became more and more concerned. There were demonstrations that the existing methods were dangerous and required very strict construction and operational tolerances - up went the cost. Long delays and huge cost increases. I had visited nuclear power stations and talked to expert proponents in UK, France, US, Taiwan and Australia, and debates such as New Zealand's electricity future reflect similar concerns. The more I did the more certain I became that it was not the way to go. Then Fukushima put the dangers and cost beyond doubt.

Let's get on with the rollover to renewables.

Dr. Marit Brommer, Executive Director of the International Geothermal Association IGA:

The IGA is proud to work with all renewable energy associations to continuously provide a unified voice to a cleaner energy future. The Geothermal sector is proven to be a partner of choice for many locations in the world serving baseload power and clean heat to customers. We are particularly interested in the increased attention system integration gets, which underpins the importance of all renewables coming together at events such as the webinar organised by the WWEA.

Christian Rakos, President of the World Bioenergy Association:

The IPCC has emphasized the important role of sustainable bioenergy for climate protection. Recent advances in technology allow us to use feedstock from forestry, wood processing and agricultural production in an efficient and clean way. Today, bioenergy already contributes 12 - 13% to global final energy demand. Importantly, contribution from bioenergy is more than 5 times as much as nuclear energy worldwide. Together with other renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind, geothermal and hydropower, bioenergy can increase the contribution in a substantial way to meet the energy demands of all end use sectors and meet the international energy and climate goals.

Stefan Gsanger, Secretary General of the World Wind Energy Association and Co-chair of the Global100RE Platform:

The switch to a renewable energy future requires new political and economic thinking: from centralised structures with few large actors towards decentralised, participatory models with millions of communities and citizens playing an active role, not only as consumers but also as producers of energy. To make this new paradigm the predominant energy paradigm is the true challenge of the energy transformation which we as the world community are facing. If we manage this shift well and on time, billions of people across the globe, in industrialised and developing countries alike, will benefit and will face a bright future.

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California NEM-3 Tariff ushers a successor Net Energy Metering framework, revising export compensation, TOU rates, and non-bypassable charges to balance ratepayer impacts, rooftop solar growth, and energy storage adoption across diverse communities.

Key Points

The CPUC's successor NEM policy redefining export credits and rates to sustain customer-sited solar and storage.

✅ Sets export compensation methodology beyond NEM 2.0

✅ Aligns TOU rates and non-bypassable charges with costs

✅ Encourages solar-plus-storage adoption and equity access

The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) has officially commenced its “NEM-3” proceeding, which will establish the successor Net Energy Metering (NEM) tariff to the “NEM 2.0” program in California. This is a highly anticipated, high-stakes proceeding that will effectively modify the rules for the NEM tariff in California, amid ongoing electricity pricing changes that affect residential rooftop solar – arguably the single most important policy mechanism for customer-sited solar over the last decade.

The CPUC’s recent order instituting rule-making (OIR) filing stated that “the major focus of this proceeding will be on the development of a successor to existing NEM 2.0 tariffs. This successor will be a mechanism for providing customer-generators with credit or compensation for electricity generated by their renewable facilities that a) balances the costs and benefits of the renewable electrical generation facility and b) allows customer-sited renewable generation to grow sustainably among different types of customers and throughout California’s diverse communities.”

This successor tariff proceeding was initiated by Assembly Bill 327, which was signed into law in October of 2013. AB 327 is best known as the legislation that directed the CPUC to create the “NEM 2.0” successor tariff, which was adopted by the CPUC in January of 2016.

The original Net Energy Metering program in California (“NEM 1.0”) effectively enabled full-retail value net metering “allowing NEM customers to be compensated for the electricity generated by an eligible customer-sited renewable resource and fed back to the utility over an entire billing period.” Under the NEM 2.0 tariff, customers were required to pay charges that aligned them more closely with non-NEM customer costs than under the original structure. The main changes adopted when the NEM 2.0 was implemented were that NEM 2.0 customer-generators must: (i) pay a one-time interconnection fee; (ii) pay non-bypassable charges on each kilowatt-hour of electricity they consume from the grid; and (iii) customers were required to transfer to a time-of-use (TOU) rate, with potential changes to electric bills for many customers.

NEM 2.0

The commencement of the NEM-3 OIR was preceded by the publishing of a 318-page Net Energy Metering 2.0 Lookback Study, which was published by Itron, Verdant Associates, and Energy and Environmental Economics. The CPUC-commissioned study had been widely anticipated and was expected to act as the starting reference point for the successor tariff proceeding. Verdant also hosted a webinar, which summarized the study’s inputs, assumptions, draft findings and results.

The study utilized several different tests to study the impact of NEM 2.0. The cost effectiveness analysis tests, which estimate costs and benefits attributed to NEM 2.0 include: (i) total resource cost test, (ii) participant cost test, (iii) ratepayer impact measure test, and (iv) program administrator test. The evaluation also included a cost of service analysis, which estimates the marginal cost borne by the utility to serve a NEM 2.0 customer.

The opening paragraph of the report’s executive summary stated that “overall, we found that NEM 2.0 participants benefit from the structure, while ratepayers see increased rates.” In every test that the author’s conducted the results generally supported this conclusion for residential customers. There were some exceptions in their findings. For example, in the cost of service analysis the report stated that “residential customers that install customer-sited renewable resources on average pay lower bills than the utility’s cost to serve them. On the other hand, nonresidential customers pay bills that are slightly higher than their cost of service after installing customer-sited renewable resources. This is largely due to nonresidential customer rates having demand charges (and other fixed fees), and the lower ratio of PV system size to customer load when compared to residential customers.”

Similar debates over solar rate design, including Massachusetts solar demand charges, highlight how demand charges and TOU decisions can affect customer economics.

NEM-3 timeline

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The preliminary schedule that the CPUC laid out in its OIR estimates that the proceeding will take roughly 15 months in total, starting with a November 2020 pre-hearing conference.

The real meat of the proceeding, where parties will present their proposals for what they believe the successor tariff should be, as the state considers revamping electricity rates to clean the grid, and really show their hand will not begin until the Spring of 2021. So we’re still a little ways away from seeing the proposals that the key parties to this proceeding, like the Investor Owned Utilities (PG&E, SCE, SDG&E), solar and storage advocates such as SEIA, CALSSA, Vote Solar, and ratepayer advocates like TURN) will submit.

While the outcome for the new successor NEM tariff is anyone’s guess at this point, some industry policy folks are starting to speculate. We think it is safe to assume that the value of exported energy will get reduced, with debates over income-based utility charges also influencing rate design. How much and the mechanism for how exports get valued remains to be seen. Based on the findings from the lookback study, it seems like the reduction in export value will be more severe than what happened when NEM 2.0 got implemented. In NEM 2.0, non-bypassable charges, which are volumetric charges that must be paid on all imported energy and cannot be netted-out by exports, only equated to roughly $0.02 to $0.03/kWh.

Given that the value of exports will almost certainly get reduced, we expect that to be bullish for energy storage as America goes electric and load shapes evolve. Energy storage attachment rates with solar are already steadily rising in California. By the time NEM-3 starts getting implemented, likely in 2022, we think storage attachment rates will likely escalate further.

We would not be surprised to see future storage attachment rates in California look like the Hawaiian market today, which are upwards of 80% for certain types of customers and applications. Two big questions on our mind are: (i) will the NEM 3.0 rules be different for different customer class: residential, CARE (e.g., low-income or disadvantaged communities), and commercial & industrial; (ii) will the CPUC introduce some sort of glidepath or phased in implementation approach?

The outcome of this proceeding will have far reaching implications on the future of customer-sited solar and energy storage in California. The NEM-3 outcome in California may likely serve as precedent for other states, as California exports its energy policies across the West, and utility territories that are expected to redesign their Net Energy Metering tariffs in the coming years.

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UK Wind Power Leadership in 2020 highlights record renewable energy growth, G20-leading wind share, rapid coal phase-out, and rising solar integration, advancing decarbonization targets under the Paris Agreement and momentum ahead of COP26.

Key Points

The UK led the G20 in wind power share in 2020, displacing coal, expanding solar, and cutting power-sector emissions.

✅ G20-leading wind share; second for combined wind and solar

✅ Fastest coal decline among G20 from 2015 to 2020

✅ Emissions risk rising as post-pandemic demand returns

Nearly a quarter of the UK’s electricity came from wind turbines in 2020 – making the country the leader among the G20 for share of power sourced from the renewable energy, a new analysis finds.

The UK also moved away from coal power at a faster rate than any other G20 country from 2015 to 2020, according to the results.

And it ranked second in the G20, behind Germany, for the proportion of electricity sourced from both wind and solar in 2020, after first surpassing coal in 2016.

“It’s crazy how much wind power has grown in the UK and how much it has offset coal, and how it’s starting to eat at gas,” Dave Jones, Ember’s global lead analyst, told The Independent.

But it is important to bear in mind that “we’re only doing a great job by the standards of the rest of the world”, he added, noting that low-carbon generation stalled in 2019 in the UK.

Ember’s Global Electricity Review notes that the world’s power sector emissions were two per cent higher in 2020 than in 2015 – the year that countries agreed to slash their greenhouse gas pollution as part of the Paris Agreement.

Power generated from coal fell by a record amount from 2019 to 2020, the analysis finds. However, this decline was greatly facilitated by lockdowns introduced to stop the spread of Covid-19, as global electricity demand was temporarily stifled before rebounding, the analysts say.

Coal is the most polluting of the fossil fuels. The UK government hopes to convince all countries to stop building new coal-fired power stations at Cop26, a climate conference that is to be held in Glasgow later this year.

UN chief Antonio Guterres has also called for all countries to end their “deadly addiction to coal”.

At a summit held earlier this month, he described ending the use of coal in electricity generation as the “single most important step” to meeting the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

“There is definitely a concern that, in the pandemic year of 2020, coal hasn’t fallen as fast as it needed to,” said Mr Jones, even as the UK set coal-free power records recently.

“There is concern that, once electricity demand returns, we won’t be seeing that decline in coal anymore.”

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Sicily Green Hydrogen accelerates decarbonization via renewable energy, wind farm electrolysis, hydrogen storage, and distribution from Enel Green Power and Sapio at the NextHy industrial lab in Carlentini and Sortino Sicily hub.

Key Points

Sicily Green Hydrogen is an Enel-Sapio plan to produce hydrogen via wind electrolysis for industrial decarbonization.

✅ 4 MW electrolyzer powered by Carlentini wind farm

✅ Estimated 200+ tons annual green H2 production capacity

✅ Market distribution managed by Sapio across Sicily

This green hydrogen will be produced at the Sicilian industrial plant, an innovative hub that puts technology at the service of the energy transition, echoing hydrogen innovation funds that support similar goals worldwide

Activating a supply of green hydrogen produced using renewable energy from the Carlentini wind farm in eastern Sicily is the focus of the agreement signed by Enel Green Power and Sapio. The agreement provides for the sale to Sapio of the green hydrogen that will be produced, stored in clean energy storage facilities and made available from 2023 at the Carlentini and Sortino production sites, home to Enel Green Powers futuristic NextHy innitiative. Sapio will be responsible for developing the market and handling the distribution of renewable hydrogen to the end customer.

In contexts where electrification is not easily achievable, green hydrogen is the key solution for decarbonization as it is emission-free and offers a potential future for power companies alongside promising development prospects, commented Salvatore Bernabei, CEO of Enel Green Power. For this reason we are excited about the agreement with Sapio. It is an agreement that looks to the future by combining technological innovation and sustainable production.

Sapio is strongly committed to contributing to the EUs achievement of the UN SDGs, commented Alberto Dossi, President of the Sapio Group, and with this project we are taking a firm step towards sustainable development in our country. The agreement with EGP also gives us the opportunity to integrate green hydrogen into our business model, as jurisdictions propose hydrogen-friendly electricity rates to grow the hydrogen economy, which is based on our strong technological expertise in hydrogen and its distribution over 100 years in business. In this way we will also be able to give further support to the industrial activities we are already carrying out in Sicily.

The estimated 200+ tons of production capacity of the Sicilian hub is the subject of the annual supply foreseen in the agreement. Once fully operational, the green hydrogen will be produced mainly by a 4 MW electrolyzer, which is powered exclusively by the renewable energy of the existing wind farm, and to a lesser extent by the state-of-the-art electrolysis systems tested in the platform. Launched by Enel Green Power in September 2021, NextHys Hydrogen Industrial Lab is a unique example of an industrial laboratory in which production activity is constantly accompanied by technological research. In addition to the sectors reserved for full-scale production, there are also areas dedicated to testing new electrolyzers, components such as valves and compressors, and innovative storage solutions based on liquid and solid means of storage: in line with Enels open-ended approach, this activity will be open to the collaboration of more than 25 entities including partners, stakeholders and innovative startups. The entire complex is currently undergoing an environmental impact assessment at the Sicily Regions Department of Land and Environment.

It is an ambitious project with a sustainable energy source at its heart that will be developed at every link in the chain: thanks to the agreement with Sapio, in fact, at NextHy green hydrogen will now not only be produced, stored and moved on an industrial scale, but also purchased and used by companies that have understood that green hydrogen is the solution for decarbonizing their production processes. In this context, this experimental approach that is open to external contributions will allow the Enel Green Power laboratory team to test the project on an industrial scale, so as to create the best conditions for a commercial environment that can make the most of all present and future technologies for the generation, storage and transport of green hydrogen, including green hydrogen microgrids that demonstrate scalable integration. It is an initiative consistent with Enels Open Innovability spirit: meeting the challenges of the energy transition by focusing on innovation, ideas and their transformation into reality.

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