Model predicts hurricane power outages

Hurricane power outage modeling uses predictive analytics, environmental factors, and utility infrastructure data to forecast grid failures, enhance disaster response, and speed restoration across Gulf Coast service areas, strengthening resilience and risk management.

U.S. and South Korean scientists say they've created a statistical program that can predict potential power outages in advance of hurricanes and other storms.

"Hurricanes have caused severe damage to electric power systems throughout the world, and electric power is critical to post-hurricane disaster response, as well as to long-term recovery for impacted areas," study co-author Seth Guikema of Johns Hopkins University said. "Effectively predicting and managing power outage risk can dramatically improve the resilience of infrastructure systems and speed up restoration of electric power, as seen during Sandy across affected states."

The program is based on data from power outages following Hurricanes Katrina (10,105 outages), Ivan (13,568 outages), Dennis (4,840 outages) and other events such as Gustav in the Gulf Coast region since the mid-1990s, the researchers said.

The researchers said their new modeling approach takes into account more environmental and power system infrastructure factors than previous analyses, complementing new utility strategies for hurricane season that aim to reduce outages, providing "more accurate predictions of the number of power outages in each geographic area of a utility company's service area and a better understanding of the response of the (utility company's) system."

The study that included Seung-Ryong Han of Korea University and Steven Quiring of Texas A&M appears in the journal Risk Analysis, amid evidence of infrastructure vulnerability after Ike in Texas.

In Louisiana, preparedness improved one year after Gustav with many residents ready for outages during hurricane season.

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