LARGE-SCALE ENERGY PROJECTS UNDERWAY IN NY

Noncarbon Electricity Investment Strategy helps utilities hedge policy uncertainty, carbon tax risks, and emissions limits by scaling wind, solar, and CCS, avoiding stranded assets while balancing costs, reliability, and climate policy over decades.

Key Points

A strategy for utilities to invest 20-30 percent of capacity in low carbon sources to hedge emissions and carbon risks.

✅ Hedges future carbon tax and emissions limits

✅ Targets 20-30 percent of new generation from clean sources

✅ Reduces stranded asset risk and builds renewables capacity

When utility executives make decisions about building new power plants, a lot rides on their choices. Depending on their size and type, new generating facilities cost hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. They typically will run for 40 or more years — 10 U.S. presidential terms. Much can change during that time.

Today one of the biggest dilemmas that regulators and electricity industry planners face is predicting how strict future limits on greenhouse gas emissions will be. Future policies will affect the profitability of today’s investments. For example, if the United States adopts a carbon tax 10 years from now, it could make power plants that burn fossil fuels less profitable, or even insolvent.

These investment choices also affect consumers. In South Carolina, utilities were allowed to charge their customers higher rates to cover construction costs for two new nuclear reactors, which have now been abandoned because of construction delays and weak electricity demand. Looking forward, if utilities are reliant on coal plants instead of solar and wind, it will be much harder and more expensive for them to meet future emissions targets, even as New Zealand's electrification push accelerates abroad. They will pass the costs of complying with these targets on to customers in the form of higher electricity prices.

With so much uncertainty about future policy, how much should we be investing in noncarbon electricity generation in the next decade? In a recent study, we proposed optimal near-term electricity investment strategies to hedge against risks and manage inherent uncertainties about the future.

We found that for a broad range of assumptions, 20 to 30 percent of new generation in the coming decade should be from noncarbon sources such as wind and solar energy across markets. For most U.S. electricity providers, this strategy would mean increasing their investments in noncarbon power sources, regardless of the current administration’s position on climate change.

Many noncarbon electricity sources — including wind, solar, nuclear power and coal or natural gas with carbon capture and storage — are more expensive than conventional coal and natural gas plants. Even wind power, which is often mentioned as competitive, is actually more costly when accounting for costs such as backup generation and energy storage to ensure that power is available when wind output is low.

Over the past decade, federal tax incentives and state policies designed to promote clean electricity sources spurred many utilities to invest in noncarbon sources. Now the Trump administration is shifting federal policy back toward promoting fossil fuels. But it can still make economic sense for power companies to invest in more expensive noncarbon technologies if we consider the potential impact of future policies.

How much should companies invest to hedge against the possibility of future greenhouse gas limits? On one hand, if they invest too much in noncarbon generation and the federal government adopts only weak climate policies throughout the investment period, utilities will overspend on expensive energy sources.

On the other hand, if they invest too little in noncarbon generation and future administrations adopt stringent emissions targets, utilities will have to replace high-carbon energy sources with cleaner substitutes, which could be extremely costly.

Economic modeling with uncertainty

We conducted a quantitative analysis to determine how to balance these two concerns and find an optimal investment strategy given uncertainty about future emissions limits. This is a core choice that power companies have to make when they decide what kinds of plants to build.

First we developed a computational model that represents the sectors of the U.S. economy, including electric power. Then we embedded it within a computer program that evaluates decisions in the electric power sector under policy uncertainty.

The model explores different electric power investment decisions under a wide range of future emissions limits with different probabilities of being implemented. For each decision/policy combination, it computes and compares economy-wide costs over two investment periods extending from 2015 to 2030.

We looked at costs across the economy because emissions policies impose costs on consumers and producers as well as power companies. For example, they may lead to higher electricity, fuel or product prices. By seeking to minimize economy-wide costs, our model identifies the investment decision that produces the greatest overall benefits to society.

More investments in clean generation make economic sense

We found that for a broad range of assumptions, the optimal investment strategy for the coming decade is for 20 to 30 percent of new generation to be from noncarbon sources. Our model identified this as the best level because it best positions the United States to meet a wide range of possible future policies at a low cost to the economy.

From 2005-2015, we calculated that about 19 percent of the new generation that came online was from noncarbon sources. Our findings indicate that power companies should put a larger share of their money into noncarbon investments in the coming decade.

While increasing noncarbon investments from a 19 percent share to a 20 to 30 percent share of new generation may seem like a modest change, it actually requires a considerable increase in noncarbon investment dollars. This is especially true since power companies will need to replace dozens of aging coal-fired power plants that are expected to be retired.

In general, society will bear greater costs if power companies underinvest in noncarbon technologies than if they overinvest. If utilities build too much noncarbon generation but end up not needing it to meet emissions limits, they can and will still use it fully. Sunshine and wind are free, so generators can produce electricity from these sources with low operating costs.

In contrast, if the United States adopts strict emissions limits within a decade or two, they could prevent carbon-intensive generation built today from being used. Those plants would become “stranded assets” — investments that are obsolete far earlier than expected, and are a drain on the economy.

Investing early in noncarbon technologies has another benefit: It helps develop the capacity and infrastructure needed to quickly expand noncarbon generation. This would allow energy companies to comply with future emissions policies at lower costs.

Seeing beyond one president

The Trump administration is working to roll back Obama-era climate policies such as the Clean Power Plan, and to implement policies that favor fossil generation. But these initiatives should alter the optimal strategy that we have proposed for power companies only if corporate leaders expect Trump’s policies to persist over the 40 years or more that these new generating plants can be expected to run.

Energy executives would need to be extremely confident that, despite investor pressure from shareholders, the United States will adopt only weak climate policies, or none at all, into future decades in order to see cutting investments in noncarbon generation as an optimal near-term strategy. Instead, they may well expect that the United States will eventually rejoin worldwide efforts to slow the pace of climate change and adopt strict emissions limits.

In that case, they should allocate their investments so that at least 20 to 30 percent of new generation over the next decade comes from noncarbon sources. Sustaining and increasing noncarbon investments in the coming decade is not just good for the environment — it’s also a smart business strategy that is good for the economy.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Climate Change News

North Seattle Power Outage disrupts 13,000 in Ballard, Northgate, and Lake City as Seattle City Light crews repair equipment failures. Aging infrastructure, smart grid upgrades, microgrids, and emergency preparedness highlight resilience and reliability challenges.

Key Points

A major outage affecting 13,000 in North Seattle from equipment failures and aging grid, prompting repairs and planning.

✅ 13,000 customers in Ballard, Northgate, Lake City affected

✅ Cause: equipment failures and aging infrastructure

✅ Crews, smart grid upgrades, and preparedness improve resilience

On a recent Wednesday morning, a significant power outage struck a large area of North Seattle, affecting approximately 13,000 residents and businesses. This incident not only disrupted daily routines, as seen in a recent London outage, but also raised questions about infrastructure reliability and emergency preparedness in urban settings.

Overview of the Outage

The outage began around 9 a.m., with initial reports indicating that neighborhoods including Ballard, Northgate, and parts of Lake City were impacted. Utility company Seattle City Light quickly dispatched crews to identify the cause of the outage and restore power as soon as possible. By noon, the utility reported that repairs were underway, with crews working diligently to restore service to those affected.

Such outages can occur for various reasons, including severe weather, such as windstorm-related failures, equipment failure, or accidents involving utility poles. In this instance, the utility confirmed that a series of equipment failures contributed to the widespread disruption. The situation was exacerbated by the age of some infrastructure in the area, highlighting ongoing concerns about the need for modernization and upgrades.

Community Impact

The power outage caused significant disruptions for residents and local businesses. Many households faced challenges as their morning routines were interrupted—everything from preparing breakfast to working from home became more complicated without electricity. Schools in the affected areas also faced challenges, as some had to adjust their schedules and operations.

Local businesses, particularly those dependent on refrigeration and electronic payment systems, felt the immediate impact. Restaurants struggled to serve customers without power, while grocery stores dealt with potential food spoilage, leading to concerns about lost inventory and revenue. The outage underscored the vulnerability of businesses to infrastructure failures, as recent Toronto outages have shown, prompting discussions about contingency plans and backup systems.

Emergency Response

Seattle City Light’s swift response was crucial in minimizing the outage's impact. Utility crews worked through the day to restore power, and the company provided regular updates to the community, keeping residents informed about progress and estimated restoration times. This transparent communication was essential in alleviating some of the frustration among those affected, and contrasts with extended outages in Houston that heightened public concern.

Furthermore, the outage served as a reminder of the importance of emergency preparedness for both individuals and local governments, and of utility disaster planning that supports resilience. Many residents were left unprepared for an extended outage, prompting discussions about personal emergency kits, alternative power sources, and community resources available during such incidents. Local officials encouraged residents to stay informed about power outages and to have a plan in place for emergencies.

Broader Implications for Infrastructure

This incident highlights the broader challenges facing urban infrastructure. Many cities, including Seattle, are grappling with aging power grids that struggle to keep up with modern demands, and power failures can disrupt transit systems like the London Underground during peak hours. Experts suggest that regular assessments and updates to infrastructure are critical to ensuring reliability and resilience against both natural and human-made disruptions.

In response to increasing frequency and severity of power outages, including widespread windstorm outages in Quebec, there is a growing call for investment in modern technologies and infrastructure. Smart grid technology, for instance, can enhance monitoring and maintenance, allowing utilities to respond more effectively to outages. Additionally, renewable energy sources and microgrid systems could offer more resilience and reduce reliance on centralized power sources.

The recent power outage in North Seattle was a significant event that affected thousands of residents and businesses. While the immediate response by Seattle City Light was commendable, the incident raised important questions about infrastructure reliability and emergency preparedness. As cities continue to grow and evolve, the need for modernized power systems and improved contingency planning will be crucial to ensuring that communities can withstand future disruptions.

As residents reflect on this experience, it serves as a reminder of the interconnectedness of urban living and the critical importance of reliable infrastructure in maintaining daily life. With proactive measures, cities can work towards minimizing the impact of such outages and building a more resilient future for their communities.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Utility Operations News

Western Grid Integration aligns CAISO with a regional transmission operator under FERC oversight, boosting renewables, reliability, and cost savings while respecting state energy policy, emissions goals, and utility regulation across the West.

Key Points

Western Grid Integration lets CAISO operate under FERC to cut costs, boost reliability, and accelerate renewables.

✅ Lowers wholesale costs via wider dispatch and resource sharing

✅ Improves reliability with regional balancing and reserves

✅ Preserves state policy authority under FERC oversight

A strong and timely endorsement for western grid integration forcefully rebuts claims that moving from a balkanized system with 38 separate entities to a regional operation could introduce environmental problems, raise costs, or, as critics warn, export California’s energy policies to other western states, or open state energy and climate policies to challenge by federal regulators. In fact, Yale University’s Environmental Protection Clinic identifies numerous economic and environmental benefits from allowing the California Independent System Operator to become a regional grid operator.

The groundbreaking report comprehensively examines the policy and legal merits of allowing the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) to become a regional grid operator, open to any western utility or generator that wants to join, as similar market structure overhauls proceed in New England.

The Yale report identifies the increasing constraints that today’s fragmented western grid imposes on system-wide electricity costs and reliability, addresses the potential benefits of integration, and evaluates  potential legal risks for the states involved. California receives particular attention because its legislature is considering the first step in the grid integration process, which involves authorizing the CAISO to create a fully independent board, even as it examines revamping electricity rates to clean the grid (other western states are unlikely to approve joining an entity whose governance is determined solely by California’s governor and legislature, as is the case now).

Elements of the report

The analysis examined all of California’s key energy and climate policies, from its cap on carbon emissions to its renewable energy goals and its pollution standards for power plants, and concludes that none would face additional legal risks under a fully integrated western grid. The operator of such a grid would be regulated by an independent federal agency (the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission)—but so is the CAISO itself, now and since its inception, by virtue of its extended involvement in interstate electricity commerce throughout the West. 

And if empowered to serve the entire region, the CAISO would not interfere with the longstanding rights of California and other states to regulate their utilities’ investments or set energy and climate policies. The study points out that grid operators don’t set energy policies for the states they serve; they help those states minimize costs, enhance reliability in the wake of California blackouts across the state, and avoid unnecessary pollution.

And as to whether an integrated grid would help renewable energy or fossil fuels, the report finds that renewable resources would be the inevitable winners, thanks to their lower operating costs, although the most important winners would be western utility customers, through lower bills, expanded retail choice options, and improved reliability.

Call to action

The Yale report concludes with what amounts to a call to action for California’s legislators:

“In sum, enhanced Western grid integration in general, and the emergence of a regional system operator in particular, would not expose California’s clean energy policies to additional legal risks. Shifting to a regional grid operator would enable more efficient, affordable and reliable integration of renewable resources without increasing the legal risk to California’s clean energy policies.”

The authors of the analysis, from the Yale Law School and the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, are Juliana Brint, Josh Constanti, Franz Hochstrasser. and Lucy Kessler. They dedicated months to the project, consulted with a diverse group of reviewers, and made the trek from New Haven to Folsom, CA, to visit the California Independent System Operator and interview key staff members.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Grid Technologies News

U.S. Electricity Demand Decoupling signals GDP growth without higher load, driven by energy efficiency, LED adoption, services-led output, and rising renewables integration with the grid, plus EV charging and battery storage supporting decarbonization.

Key Points

GDP grows as electricity use stays flat, driven by efficiency, renewables, and a shift toward services and output.

✅ LEDs and codes cut residential and commercial load intensity.

✅ Wind, solar, and gas gain share as coal and nuclear struggle.

✅ EVs and storage can grow load and enable grid decarbonization.

By Justin Fox

Economic growth picked up a little in the U.S. in 2017. But electricity use fell, with electricity sales projections continuing to decline, according to data released recently by the Energy Information Administration. It's now been basically flat for more than a decade:

Measured on a per-capita basis, electricity use is in clear decline, and is already back to the levels of the mid-1990s.

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

*Includes small-scale solar generation from 2014 onward

I constructed these charts to go all the way back to 1949 in part because I can (that's how far back the EIA data series goes) but also because it makes clear what a momentous change this is. Electricity use rose and rose and rose and then ... it didn't anymore.

Slower economic growth since 2007 has been part of the reason, but the 2017 numbers make clear that higher gross domestic product no longer necessarily requires more electricity, although the Iron Law of Climate is often cited to suggest rising energy use with economic growth. I wrote a column last year about this big shift, and there's not a whole lot new to say about what's causing it: mainly increased energy efficiency (driven to a remarkable extent by the rise of LED light bulbs), and the continuing migration of economic activity away from making tangible things and toward providing services and virtual products such as games and binge-watchable TV series (that are themselves consumed on ever-more-energy-efficient electronic devices).

What's worth going over, though, is what this means for those in the business of generating electricity. The Donald Trump administration has made saving coal-fired electric plants a big priority; the struggles of nuclear power plants have sparked concern from multiple quarters. Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas production has grown by more than 40 percent since 2007, thanks to hydraulic fracturing and other new drilling techniques, while wind and solar generation keep making big gains in cost and market share. And this is all happening within the context of a no-growth electricity market.

In China, a mystery in China's electricity data has complicated global comparisons.

Here are the five main sources of electric power in the U.S.:

The big story over the past decade has been coal and natural gas trading places as the top fuel for electricity generation. Over the past year and a half coal regained some of that lost ground as natural gas prices rose from the lows of early 2016. But with overall electricity use flat and production from wind and solar on the rise, that hasn't translated into big increases in coal generation overall.

Oh, and about solar. It's only a major factor in a few states (California especially), so it doesn't make the top five. But it's definitely on the rise.

What happens next? For power generators, the best bet for breaking out of the current no-growth pattern is to electrify more of the U.S. economy, especially transportation. A big part of the attraction of electric cars and trucks for policy-makers and others is their potential to be emissions-free. But they're only really emissions-free if the electricity used to charge them is generated in an emissions-free manner -- creating a pretty strong business case for continuing "decarbonization" of the electric industry. It's conceivable that electric car batteries could even assist in that decarbonization by storing the intermittent power generated by wind and solar and delivering it back onto the grid when needed.

I don't know exactly how all this will play out. Nobody does. But the business of generating electricity isn't going back to its pre-2008 normal. 

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Power Generation News

GMP Tesla Powerwall Program replaces utility meters with smart battery storage, enabling virtual power plant services, demand response, and resilient homes, integrating solar readiness, EV charging support, and smart grid controls across Vermont households.

Key Points

Green Mountain Power uses Tesla Powerwalls as smart meters, creating a VPP for demand response and home backup.

✅ $30 monthly for 10 years or $3,000 upfront for two units

✅ Utility controls batteries for peak shaving and demand response

✅ Enables backup power, solar readiness, and EV charging support

There are more than 100 million single-family homes in the United States of America. If each of these homes were to have two 13.5 kWh Tesla Powerwalls, that would total 2.7 Terawatt-hours worth of electricity stored. Prior research has suggested that this volume of energy storage could get us halfway to the 5.4 TWh of storage needed to let the nation get 80% of its electricity from solar and wind, as states like California increasingly turn to grid batteries to support the transition.

Vermont utility Green Mountain Power (GMP) seeks to remove standard electric utility metering hardware and replace it with the equipment inside of a Tesla Powerwall, as part of a broader digital grid evolution underway. Mary Powell, President and CEO of Green Mountain Power, says, “We have a vision of a battery system in every single home” and they’ve got a patent pending software solution to make it happen.

The Resilient Home program will install two standard Tesla Powerwalls each in 250 homes in GMP’s service area. The homeowner will pay either $30 a month for ten years ($3,600), or $3,000 up front. At the end of the ten year period, payments end, but the unit can stay in the home for an additional five years – or as long as it has a usable life.

A single Powerwall costs approximately $6,800, making this a major discount.

GMP notes that the home must have reliable internet access to allow GMP and Tesla to communicate with the Powerwall. GMP will control the functions of the Powerwall, effectively operating a virtual power plant across participating homes, expanding the scope of programs like those that saved the state’s ratepayers more than $500,000 during peak demand events last year. The utility specifically notes that customers agree to share stored energy with GMP on several peak demand days each year.

The hardware can be designed to interact with current backup generators during power outages, or emerging fuel cell solutions that maintain battery charge longer during extended outages, however, the units will not charge from the generator. As noted the utility will be making use of the hardware during normal operating times, however, during a power outage the private home owner will be able to use the electricity to back up both their house and top off their car.

The utility told pv magazine USA that the Powerwalls are standard from the factory, with GMP’s patent pending software solution being the special sauce (has a hint of recent UL certifications). GMP said the program will also get home owners “adoption ready” for solar power, including microgrid energy storage markets, and other smart devices.

Sonnen’s ecoLinx is already directly interacting with a home’s electrical panel (literally throwing wifi enabled circuit breakers). Now with Tesla Powerwalls being used to replace utility meters, we see one further layer of integration that will lead to design changes that will drive residential solar toward $1/W. Electric utilities are also experimenting with controlling module level electronics and smart solar inverters in 100% residential penetration situations. And of course, considering that California is requiring solar – and probably storage in the future – in all new homes, we should expect to see further experimentation in this model. Off grid solar inverter manufacturers already include electric panels with their offerings.

If we add in the electric car, and have vehicle-to-grid abilities, we start to see a very strong amount of electricity generation and energy storage, helping to keep the lights on during grid stress, potentially happening in more than 100 million residential power plants. Resilient homes indeed.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Grid Technologies News

Russian cyberattacks on U.S. power grid exposed DHS warnings: Dragonfly/Energetic Bear breached control rooms, ICS networks, and could trigger blackouts via switch manipulation, phishing, and malware, threatening critical infrastructure and utility operations nationwide.

Key Points

State-backed breaches of utility ICS and control rooms enabled potential switch manipulation and blackouts.

✅ DHS: Dragonfly/Energetic Bear breached utility networks

✅ Access reached control rooms and ICS for switch control

✅ Ongoing campaign via phishing, malware, lateral movement

Russian hackers for a state-sponsored organization invaded hundreds of control rooms of U.S. electric utilities that could have led to blackouts, a new report says.

The group, known as Dragonfly or Energetic Bear, infiltrated networks of U.S. utilities as part of an effort that is likely ongoing, Department of Homeland Security officials told the Wall Street Journal.

Jonathan Home, chief of industrial-control-system analysis for DHS, said the hackers “got to the point where they could have thrown switches” and upset power flows.

Although the agency did not disclose which companies were impacted, the officials at a briefing Monday said that there were “hundreds of victims” including breaches at power plants across the U.S., and that some companies may not be aware that hackers infiltrated their networks yet.

According to experts, Russia has been preparing for such attacks for some time now, prompting a renewed focus on protecting the grid among utilities and policymakers.

“They’ve been intruding into our networks and are positioning themselves for a limited or widespread attack,” said former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary Michael Carpenter, now senior director at the Penn Biden Center at the University of Pennsylvania, per the Wall Street Journal. “They are waging a covert war on the West.”

Earlier this year, the Trump administration claimed Russia had staged a power grid hacking campaign against the U.S. energy grid and other U.S. infrastructure.

The report comes after President Trump told reporters last week during a joint press conference in Helsinki alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin that he had no reason not to believe the Russian leader's assurances to him that the Kremlin was not to blame for interference in the election.

Trump later admitted that he misspoke when he said he didn’t “see any reason why” Russia would have meddled in the 2016 election, and said he believes the U.S. intelligence community assessment that found that the Russian government did interfere in the electoral process.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Grid Technologies News