US Army deploys its first floating solar array

IEA Electricity 2024 Renewables Outlook projects renewable energy surpassing coal in global electricity generation by early 2025, with nuclear power rebounding, clean energy expansion, electrification, and grid upgrades cutting emissions and decarbonizing power systems.

Key Points

IEA forecast: renewables beat coal by 2025, nuclear rebounds, speeding cleaner power and deeper emissions cuts by 2026.

✅ Renewables surpass coal by 2025; nuclear output hits records by 2025-2026.

✅ Power demand grows 3.4% avg to 2026 via EVs, data centers, electrification.

✅ Gas displaces coal; grids need investment; drought and supply chains pose risks.

The International Energy Agency's latest Electricity 2024 report predicts that renewable energy sources will surpass coal in global electricity generation by early 2025, reaching over one-third of the world's total power output. Additionally, nuclear power is expected to achieve record production levels by 2025, recovering from recent downturns and reflecting low-carbon electricity lessons from the COVID-19 period.

By 2026, the report estimates that renewables and nuclear will jointly contribute to nearly half of the global power generation, up from less than 40 percent in 2023. This shift is crucial as the United Nations emphasizes the transition to clean energy, with Asia to use half of electricity by 2025 highlighting the scale of the challenge, as a key factor in limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol highlighted the promising trends of renewables, led by affordable solar power and the resurgence of nuclear power, as key factors covering almost all demand growth over the next three years.

At the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, participants agreed on a plan for phasing out fossil fuels and committed to tripling renewable capacity by 2030. This shift in the electricity mix is expected to reduce emissions from the power sector, which is currently the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions worldwide.

Despite a modest 2.2 percent growth in global electricity demand in 2023, an acceleration to an average annual increase of 3.4 percent is projected from 2024 to 2026. This surge in electricity demand is driven by factors like home and business electrification, the proliferation of electric vehicles, and industrial expansion.

Significant growth in electricity usage from data centers worldwide is anticipated, potentially doubling between 2022 and 2026, as global power demand has surged above pre-pandemic levels. Regulatory updates and technological advancements are essential to manage this energy consumption increase effectively.

Emissions from the electricity sector are expected to decrease following a 1 percent rise in 2023, with a more than 2 percent reduction projected in 2024 and continued declines in subsequent years. This reduced carbon intensity in electricity generation will enhance the emissions savings from electrifying cars and appliances.

Natural gas-fired power is predicted to see a modest increase over the next three years, primarily replacing coal power. While Europe has witnessed sharp declines in gas power, EU wind and solar beat gas last year, growth in the United States, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East is expected due to available liquefied natural gas supplies.

By 2026, fossil fuels are forecasted to account for 54 percent of global generation, dropping below 60 percent for the first time in over five decades. The U.S. is anticipated to boost renewable generation by approximately 10 percent annually between 2024 and 2026, surpassing coal generation in 2024.

The report warns of potential risks to clean energy trends, including droughts impacting hydropower, extreme weather affecting electricity reliability, and supply chain interruptions threatening new renewable and nuclear projects, and a generation mix sensitive to policies and gas prices that could shift trajectories.

Keisuke Sadamori, IEA’s director of energy markets and security, underscores the need for continued investment in grid infrastructure to integrate incoming renewable energy and sustain the power sector's trajectory towards emissions reduction goals.

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Lion Electric Battery Plant Quebec secures near $100M public investment for an automated battery-pack assembly in Saint-Jérôme, fueling EV manufacturing, R&D, local supply chains, and heavy-duty zero-emission vehicle competitiveness and jobs.

Key Points

Automated battery-pack plant in Saint-Jérôme boosting EV manufacturing and strengthening Quebec's supply chain.

✅ $100M joint federal-provincial investment announced

✅ 135 jobs in 2023; 150 more long-term positions

✅ R&D hub to enhance heavy-duty EV battery performance

Canadian Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, and the Premier of Quebec, François Legault, have announced an equal investment totalling nearly $100 million to Lion Electric, as a B.C. battery plant announcement has done in another province, for the establishment of a highly automated battery-pack assembly plant in Saint–Jérôme, in the Laurentians. This project, valued at nearly $185 million, will create 135 jobs when construction of the plant is completed in 2023. It is also expected that 150 additional jobs will be created over the longer term.

For the announcement, Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Legault were accompanied by the Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, François-Philippe Champagne, by Quebec's Minister of Economy and Innovation, Pierre Fitzgibbon, and by Marc Bédard, President and Founder of Lion Electric.

The battery packs assembled at the new plant will be used in Lion Electric vehicles. This strategic investment will allow the company to improve its cost structure, and better control the design and shape of its batteries, making it more competitive in the heavy-duty electric vehicle market, as EV assembly deals put Canada in the race. Ultimately, the company will be able to increase the volume of its vehicle production. Lion Electric will be the first Canadian manufacturer of medium and heavy-duty vehicles to have state-of-the-art, automated battery-pack manufacturing facilities.

The company will also establish a research and development innovation centre within its manufacturing plant, which will allow it to test and refine products for future use, including batteries for emergency vehicles such as ambulances. The company will test innovations from research and development, including energy storage capacity and battery performance. The results will make these products more competitive in the North American market, where a Niagara Region battery plant signals growing demand.

The company said it expects to employ 135 people at the plant when it is operational by 2023. It also plans to invest in a research and development facility that could create a number of spinoff jobs.

"When we talk about an economic recovery that's good for workers, for families and for the environment, this is exactly the kind of project we mean," Trudeau said at a news conference in Montreal.

Trudeau toured Lion Electric's factory in Saint-Jérôme, Que., last March, just before the pandemic. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press)
It was the prime minister's first trip to Montreal in more than a year. He said one of the reasons he decided to attend the announcement was to illustrate the importance of the green economy and how Canada can capitalize on the U.S. EV pivot for future job growth.

The project also aligns with the Legault government's desire to create a supply chain within Quebec that is able to feed the electric vehicle industry, where Canada-U.S. collaboration could accelerate progress.

At Monday's announcement, Economy Minister Pierre Fitzgibbon spoke at length about the province's deposits of lithium and nickel — key components in electric vehicle batteries — as well as its supply of low-emission hydroelectricity.

"If we play our cards right, we could become world leaders in this market of the future," Fitzgibbon said.

Currently, many of those strategic minerals found in Quebec are exported to Asia where they are turned into battery cells, and then imported back to Quebec by companies like Lion, said Mickaël Dollé, a chemistry professor at the Université de Montréal.

By opening a battery assembly plant in Quebec, Lion could help stimulate more cell-makers, such as the Northvolt project near Montreal, to set up shop in the province. Further localizing the supply chain, Dollé said, means better value and a greener product. 

But other countries have the same goal in mind, he said, and the window for the province to establish itself as an important player in the emerging electric vehicle battery industry is closing quickly, as major Ford Oakville deal commitments accelerate competition.

"The decision has to be taken now, or in the coming months, but if we wait too long we may miss our main goal which is to get our own supply chain in Canada," Dollé said.

What's in a name?
Monday's announcement was closely watched in Quebec for what it foretold about the political future as well as the economic one.

By coming to Montreal and touring a vaccination clinic before making the funding announcement, Trudeau fed speculation in the province that he is preparing to call an election soon.

Intrigue also surrounded the informal meeting Trudeau had with Legault on Monday. The Quebec premier and members of his government have repeatedly expressed frustration with Trudeau during the pandemic.

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Tesla Q2 2020 earnings highlight resilient electric vehicles as production and deliveries outpace legacy automakers, while Gigafactory Austin advances, solar installations slump, and energy storage, Megapack, and free cash flow expand despite COVID-19 disruptions.

Key Points

Tesla posted a fourth consecutive profit, strong cash, EV resilience, solar slump, and rising energy storage.

✅ Fourth straight profit and $418M free cash flow

✅ EV output and deliveries fell just 5% year over year

✅ Solar hit record low; storage rose 61% to 419 MWh

Tesla survived the throes of the coronavirus pandemic relatively unscathed, chalking up its fourth sequential quarterly profit for the first time on Wednesday.

On the energy front, however, things were much more complicated: Tesla reported its worst-ever quarter for solar installations but huge growth in its battery business, amid expectations for cheaper, more powerful batteries expected in coming years. CEO Elon Musk nevertheless predicted the energy business will one day rival its car division in scale.

But today, Tesla's bottom line is all about electric vehicles, and the temporary halt of activity at Tesla's Fremont factory due to local health orders didn’t put much of a dent in vehicle production and delivery. Both figures declined 5 percent compared to the same quarter in 2019. In contrast, Q2 vehicle sales at legacy carmakers Ford, GM and Fiat Chrysler declined by one-third or more year-over-year, even as the U.S. EV market share dipped in early 2024 for context.

The costs of factory closures and a $101 million CEO award milestone for Elon Musk didn’t stop Tesla from achieving $418 million in free cash flow, a major improvement over the prior quarter. Cash and cash equivalents grew by $535 million to $8.6 billion during the quarter.

Musk praised his employees for “exceptional execution.” 

“There were so many challenges, too numerous to name, but they got it done,” he said on an investor call Wednesday.

Musk also confirmed that Tesla will build a new Gigafactory in Austin, Texas, five minutes from the airport. The 2,000-acre campus will abut the Colorado River and is “basically going to be an ecological paradise,” he said. The new Texas factory will build the Cybertruck, Semi, Model 3 and Model Y for the Eastern half of North America. Fremont, California will produce the S and X, and make Model 3 and Model Y for the West, in a state where EVs exceed 20% of sales according to recent data.

Return of the Tesla solar slump

This was the first entire quarter affected by the coronavirus response, which threw the rooftop solar industry into turmoil by cutting off in-person sales. Other installers scrambled to shift to digital-first sales strategies, but Tesla had already done so months before lockdowns were imposed.

Q2, then, offers a test case on whether Tesla’s pivot to passive online sales made it better able to deal with stay-at-home orders than its peers. The other publicly traded solar installers have not yet reported their Q2 performance, but Tesla delivered its worst-ever quarterly solar figures: Installations totaled just 27 megawatts. That’s a 7 percent decline from Q2 2019, its previous worst quarter ever for solar.

Musk did not address that weak performance in his remarks to investors, opting instead to highlight the company’s late-June decision to offer the cheapest solar pricing in the country. “We’re the company to go to,” he said of rooftop solar. “It’s only going to get better later this year.”

But the sales slump indicates Tesla’s online sales model could not withstand a historically tough season for residential solar.

"Every single residential installer in the country is going to have a bad Q2 because of the initial impacts of COVID on the market," said Austin Perea, senior solar analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "It's hard to disaggregate the impacts of COVID from their own individual strategies."

Tesla's 23 percent decline in quarter-over-quarter solar installations was not as bad as the expected Q2 decline across the rooftop solar industry, Perea added.

On the vehicle side, Tesla’s sales declined less than did those of major automakers. It’s possible that the same pattern will hold for solar; a less severe drop than those seen by Sunrun or Vivint could be claimed as a victory of sorts. But this quarter made clear that Q2 2019 was not the bottom for Tesla’s solar operation, which once led the residential market as SolarCity but significantly diminished since Tesla acquired it in 2016.

Tesla currently stands in third place for residential solar installers. But No. 1 installer Sunrun said this month that it will acquire No. 2 installer Vivint Solar, making Tesla the second-largest installer by default. That major consolidation in the rooftop solar market went unremarked upon in Tesla's investor call.

Solar and energy storage revenue currently equate to just 7 percent of the company's automotive revenue. But Musk reiterated his prediction that this won’t always be the case. “Long term, Tesla Energy will be roughly the same size as Tesla Automotive,” he said on Wednesday's call.

The grid storage business offered more reason for optimism: Capacity deployed grew 61 percent from the first quarter, rising to 419 megawatt-hours. The prepackaged, large-format Megapack product turned its first profit that quarter.

"Difficult to predict" performance in the second half of 2020
Tesla withdrew its financial guidance last quarter in light of the upheaval across the global economy. It refrained from setting new guidance now.

“Although we have successfully ramped vehicle production back to prior levels, it remains difficult to predict whether there will be further operational interruptions or how global consumer sentiment will evolve, given risks to the EV boom noted by analysts, in the second half of 2020,” the earnings report notes.

The company asserted it will still deliver 500,000 vehicles this year regardless of externalities, a goal that aligns with broader EV sales momentum in 2024 trends. It already has sufficient production capacity installed to reach that, Tesla said. But with 179,387 cars delivered so far, Tesla faces an uphill climb to ship more cars in the second half.

Wall Street maintained its buoyant confidence in Tesla's share price, despite rising competition in China noted by rivals. It closed at $1,592 before the earnings announcement, rising to $1,661 in after-hours trading.

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US Renewable Energy Cost Advantage signals cheaper utility-scale solar and onshore wind versus natural gas, with LCOE declines, tax credits, and climate policy cutting electricity costs for utilities and grids across the United States.

Key Points

Cheaper solar and wind than natural gas, driven by LCOE drops, tax credits, and policy, lowering US electricity costs.

✅ Utility-scale solar is about one-third cheaper than gas

✅ Onshore wind costs roughly 44 percent less than natural gas

✅ Policy and tax credits accelerate renewables and cut power prices

Natural gas’s dominance as power-plant fuel in the US is fading fast as the cost of electricity generated by US wind and solar projects tumbles and as wind and solar surpass coal in the generation mix, according to Guggenheim Securities.

Utility-scale solar is now about a third cheaper than gas-fired power, while onshore wind is about 44% less expensive, Guggenheim analysts led by Shahriar Pourreza said Monday in a note to clients, a dynamic consistent with falling wholesale power prices in several markets today. 

“Solar and wind now present a deflationary opportunity for electric supply costs,” the analysts said, which “supports the case for economic deployment of renewables across the US,” as the country moves toward 30% wind and solar and one-fourth of total generation in the near term.

Gas prices have surged amid a global supply crunch after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while tax-credit extensions and sweeping US climate legislation have brought down the cost of wind and solar, even as renewables surpassed coal in 2022 nationwide. Renewables-heavy utilities like NextEra Energy Inc. and Allete Inc. stand to benefit, and companies that can boost spending on wind and solar, as wind, solar and batteries dominate the 2023 pipeline, will also see faster growth, Guggenheim said.
 

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EPA Auto Emissions Proposal 2027-2032 sets strict tailpipe emissions limits, accelerating electric vehicle adoption, cutting greenhouse gases, advancing climate policy, and reducing oil dependence through battery-electric cars and trucks across U.S. markets.

Key Points

An EPA plan setting strict tailpipe limits to drive EV adoption, cut greenhouse gases, and reduce oil use in vehicles.

✅ Cuts GHGs 56% vs. 2026 standards; improves national air quality.

✅ Targets up to two-thirds EV sales by 2032 nationwide.

✅ Reduces oil imports by about 20 billion barrels; lowers costs.

The Biden administration is proposing strict new automobile pollution limits that would require up to two-thirds of new vehicles sold in the U.S. to be electric by 2032, a nearly tenfold increase over current electric vehicle sales.

The proposed regulation, announced Wednesday by the Environmental Protection Agency, would set tailpipe emissions limits for the 2027 through 2032 model years that are the strictest ever imposed — and call for far more new EV sales than the auto industry agreed to less than two years ago, a shift aligned with U.S. EV sales momentum in early 2024.

If finalized next year as expected, the plan would represent the strongest push yet toward a once almost unthinkable shift from gasoline-powered cars and trucks to battery-powered vehicles, as the market approaches an inflection point in adoption.

The Biden administration is proposing strict new automobile pollution limits that would require up to two-thirds of new vehicles sold in the U.S. to be electric by 2032, a nearly tenfold increase over current electric vehicle sales.

The proposed regulation, announced Wednesday by the Environmental Protection Agency, would set tailpipe emissions limits for the 2027 through 2032 model years that are the strictest ever imposed — and call for far more new EV sales than the auto industry agreed to less than two years ago, a direction mirrored by Canada's EV sales regulations now being finalized.

If finalized next year as expected, the plan would represent the strongest push yet toward a once almost unthinkable shift from gasoline-powered cars and trucks to battery-powered vehicles, with many analysts forecasting widespread adoption within a decade among buyers.

Reaching half was always a “stretch goal," given that EVs still trail gas cars in market share and contingent on manufacturing incentives and tax credits to make EVs more affordable, he wrote.

“The question isn’t can this be done, it’s how fast can it be done,” Bozzella wrote. “How fast will depend almost exclusively on having the right policies and market conditions in place.”

European car maker Stellantis said that, amid broader EV mandate debates across North America, officials were “surprised that none of the alternatives” proposed by EPA "align with the president’s previously announced target of 50% EVs by 2030.''

Q. How will the proposal benefit the environment?

A. The proposed standards for light-duty cars and trucks are projected to result in a 56% reduction in projected greenhouse gas emissions compared with existing standards for model year 2026, the EPA said. The proposals would improve air quality for communities across the nation, and, with actual benefits influenced by grid mix — for example, Canada's fossil electricity share affects lifecycle emissions — avoiding nearly 10 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2055, more than twice the total U.S. CO2 emissions last year, the EPA said.

The plan also would save thousands of dollars over the lives of the vehicles sold and reduce U.S. reliance on approximately 20 billion barrels of oil imports, the agency said.

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2020 U.S. Renewable Electricity Generation set a record as wind, solar, hydro, biomass, and geothermal produced 834 billion kWh, surpassing coal and nuclear, second only to natural gas in nationwide power output.

Key Points

The record year when renewables made 834 billion kWh, topping coal and nuclear in U.S. electricity.

✅ Renewables supplied 21% of U.S. electricity in 2020

✅ Coal output fell 20% y/y; nuclear slipped 2% on retirements

✅ EIA forecasts renewables rise in 2021-2022; coal rebounds

In 2020, renewable energy sources (including wind, hydroelectric, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy) generated a record 834 billion kilowatthours (kWh) of electricity, or about 21% of all the electricity generated in the United States. Only natural gas (1,617 billion kWh) produced more electricity than renewables in the United States in 2020. Renewables surpassed both nuclear (790 billion kWh) and coal (774 billion kWh) for the first time on record. This outcome in 2020 was due mostly to significantly less coal use in U.S. electricity generation and steadily increased use of wind and solar generation over time, amid declining consumption trends nationwide.

In 2020, U.S. electricity generation from coal in all sectors declined 20% from 2019, while renewables, including small-scale solar, increased 9%. Wind, currently the most prevalent source of renewable electricity in the United States, grew 14% in 2020 from 2019, and the EIA expects solar and wind to be larger sources in summer 2022, reflecting continued growth. Utility-scale solar generation (from projects greater than 1 megawatt) increased 26%, and small-scale solar, such as grid-connected rooftop solar panels, increased 19%, while early 2021 January power generation jumped year over year.

Coal-fired electricity generation in the United States peaked at 2,016 billion kWh in 2007 and much of that capacity has been replaced by or converted to natural gas-fired generation since then. Coal was the largest source of electricity in the United States until 2016, and 2020 was the first year that more electricity was generated by renewables and by nuclear power than by coal (according to our data series that dates back to 1949). Nuclear electric power declined 2% from 2019 to 2020 because several nuclear power plants retired and other nuclear plants experienced slightly more maintenance-related outages.

We expect coal-fired generation to increase in the United States during 2021 as natural gas prices continue to rise and as coal becomes more economically competitive. Based on forecasts in our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we expect coal-fired electricity generation in all sectors in 2021 to increase 18% from 2020 levels before falling 2% in 2022. We expect U.S. renewable generation across all sectors to increase 7% in 2021 and 10% in 2022, and in 2021, non-fossil fuel sources accounted for about 40% of U.S. electricity. As a result, we forecast coal will be the second-most prevalent electricity source in 2021, and renewables will be the second-most prevalent source in 2022. We expect nuclear electric power to decline 2% in 2021 and 3% in 2022 as operators retire several generators.

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