Solar and wind power curtailments are rising in California


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CAISO Renewable Curtailments reflect grid balancing under transmission congestion and oversupply, reducing solar and wind output while leveraging WEIM trading, battery storage, and transmission expansion to integrate renewables and stabilize demand-supply.

 

Key Points

CAISO renewable curtailments are reductions in wind and solar output to balance grid amid congestion or oversupply.

✅ Driven mainly by transmission congestion, less by oversupply.

✅ Peaks in spring when demand is low and solar output is high.

✅ Mitigated by WEIM trades, new lines, and battery storage growth.

 

The California Independent System Operator (CAISO), the grid operator for most of the state, is increasingly curtailing solar- and wind-powered electricity generation, as reported in rising curtailments, as it balances supply and demand during the rapid growth of wind and solar power in California.

Grid operators must balance supply and demand to maintain a stable electric system as advances in solar and wind continue to scale. The output of wind and solar generators are reduced either through price signals or rarely, through an order to reduce output, during periods of:

Congestion, when power lines don’t have enough capacity to deliver available energy
Oversupply, when generation exceeds customer electricity demand

In CAISO, curtailment is largely a result of congestion. Congestion-related curtailments have increased significantly since 2019 because California's solar boom has been outpacing upgrades in transmission capacity.

In 2022, CAISO curtailed 2.4 million megawatthours (MWh) of utility-scale wind and solar output, a 63% increase from the amount of electricity curtailed in 2021. As of September, CAISO has curtailed more than 2.3 million MWh of wind and solar output so far this year, even as the US project pipeline is dominated by wind, solar, and batteries.

Solar accounts for almost all of the energy curtailed in CAISO—95% in 2022 and 94% in the first seven months of 2023. CAISO tends to curtail the most solar in the spring when electricity demand is relatively low (because moderate spring temperatures mean less demand for space heating or air conditioning) and solar output is relatively high, although wildfire smoke impacts can reduce available generation during fire season as well.

CAISO has increasingly curtailed renewable generation as renewable capacity has grown in California, and the state has even experienced a near-100% renewables moment on the grid in recent years. In 2014, a combined 9.0 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar capacity had been built in California. As of July 2023, that number had grown to 17.6 GW. Developers plan to add another 3.0 GW by the end of 2024.

CAISO is exploring and implementing various solutions to its increasing curtailment of renewables, including:

The Western Energy Imbalance Market (WEIM) is a real-time market that allows participants outside of CAISO to buy and sell energy to balance demand and supply. In 2022, more than 10% of total possible curtailments were avoided by trading within the WEIM. A day ahead market is expected to be operational in Spring 2025.

CAISO is expanding transmission capacity to reduce congestion. CAISO’s 2022–23 Transmission Planning Process includes 45 transmission projects to accommodate load growth and a larger share of generation from renewable energy sources.

CAISO is promoting the development of flexible resources that can quickly respond to sudden increases and decreases in demand such as battery storage technologies that are rapidly becoming more affordable. California has 4.9 GW of battery storage, and developers plan to add another 7.6 GW by the end of 2024, according to our survey of recent and planned capacity changes. Renewable generators can charge these batteries with electricity that would otherwise have been curtailed.

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Most planned U.S. battery storage additions in next three years to be paired with solar

U.S. Solar-Plus-Storage Growth 2021-2024 highlights rising battery storage co-location with solar PV, grid flexibility, RTO/ISO market signals, and ITC incentives, enabling peak shaving, firming renewable output, and reliable night-time power.

 

Key Points

Summary of U.S. plans pairing battery storage with solar PV, guided by RTO/ISO markets, grid needs, and ITC policy.

✅ 9.4 GW (63%) co-located with solar PV by 2024

✅ 97% of standalone capacity sited in RTO/ISO regions

✅ ITC improves project economics and grid services revenue

 

Of the 14.5 gigawatts (GW) of battery storage power capacity planned to come online amid anticipated growth in solar and storage in the United States from 2021 to 2024, 9.4 GW (63%) will be co-located with a solar photovoltaic (PV) solar-plus-storage power plant, based on data reported to us and published in our Annual Electric Generator Report. Another 1.3 GW of battery storage will be co-located at sites with wind turbines or fossil fuel-fired generators, such as natural gas-fired plants. The remaining 4.0 GW of planned battery storage will be located at standalone sites.

Historically, most U.S. battery systems have been located at standalone sites. Of the 1.5 GW of operating battery storage capacity in the United States at the end of 2020, 71% was standalone, and 29% was located onsite with other power generators.

Most standalone battery energy storage sites have been planned or built in power markets that are governed by regional transmission organizations (RTOs) and independent system operators (ISOs). RTOs and ISOs can enforce standard market rules that lay out clear revenue streams for energy storage projects in their regions, which promotes the deployment of battery storage systems. Of the utility-scale pipeline battery systems announced to come online from 2021 to 2024, 97% of the standalone battery capacity and 60% of the co-located battery capacity are in RTO/ISO regions.

Over 90% of the planned battery storage capacity outside of RTO and ISO regions will be co-located with a solar PV plant. At some solar PV co-located plants, the batteries can charge directly from the onsite solar generator when electricity demand and prices are low. They can then discharge electricity to the grid when peak demand is higher or when solar generation is unavailable, such as at night.

Although factors such as cloud cover can affect solar generation output, solar generators, now the number three renewable source in the U.S., in particular can effectively pair with battery storage because of their relatively regular daily generation patterns. This predictability works well with battery systems because battery systems are limited in how long they can discharge their power capacity before needing to recharge. If paired with a wind turbine, for example, a battery system could go days before having the opportunity to fully recharge.

Another advantage of pairing batteries with renewable generators is the ability to take advantage of tax incentives such as the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), which is available for solar projects, and other favorable government plans supporting deployment.

 

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The U.S. passed a historic climate deal this year - Recap

Inflation Reduction Act climate provisions accelerate clean energy, EV tax credits, methane fee, hydrogen incentives, and a green bank, cutting carbon emissions, boosting manufacturing, and advancing environmental justice and net-zero goals through 2030.

 

Key Points

They are U.S. policies funding clean energy, EV credits, a methane fee, hydrogen, and justice programs to cut emissions.

✅ Up to $7,500 new and $4,000 used EV tax credits with income limits

✅ First federal methane fee to curb oil and gas emissions

✅ $60B for clean energy manufacturing and environmental justice

 

The Biden administration this year signed a historic climate and tax deal that will funnel billions of dollars into programs designed to speed the country’s clean energy transition, with ways to tap new funding available to households and businesses, and battle climate change.

As the U.S. this year grappled with climate-related disasters from Hurricane Ian in Florida to the Mosquito Fire in California, the Inflation Reduction Act, which contains $369 billion in climate provisions, was a monumental development to mitigate the effects of climate change across the country, with investment incentives viewed as essential to accelerating clean electricity this decade. 

The bill, which President Joe Biden signed into law in August, is the most aggressive climate investment ever taken by Congress and is expected to slash the country’s planet-warming carbon emissions by about 40% this decade and move the country toward a net-zero economy by 2050, aligning with a path to net-zero electricity many analyses lay out.

The IRA’s provisions have major implications for clean energy and manufacturing businesses, climate startups and consumers in the coming years. As 2022 comes to a close, here’s a look back at the key elements in the legislation that climate and clean energy advocates will be monitoring in 2023.


Incentives for electric vehicles
The deal offers a federal tax credit worth up to $7,500 to households that buy new electric vehicles, as well as a used EV credit worth up to $4,000 for vehicles that are at least two years old. Starting Jan. 1, people making $150,000 a year or less, or $300,000 for joint filers, are eligible for the new car credit, while people making $75,000 or less, or $150,000 for joint filers, are eligible for the used car credit.

Despite a rise in EV sales in recent years, the transportation sector is still the country’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, with the lack of convenient charging stations being one of the barriers to expansion. The Biden administration has set a goal of 50% electric vehicle sales by 2030, as Canada pursues EV sales regulations alongside broader oil and gas emissions limits.

The IRA limits EV tax credits to vehicles assembled in North America and is intended to wean the U.S. off battery materials from China, which accounts for 70% of the global supply of battery cells for the vehicles. An additional $1 billion in the deal will provide funding for zero-emissions school buses, heavy-duty trucks and public transit buses.

Stephanie Searle, a program director at the nonprofit International Council on Clean Transportation, said the combination of the IRA tax credits and state policies like New York's Green New Deal will bolster EV sales. The agency projects that roughly 50% or more of passenger cars, SUVs and pickups sold in 2030 will be electric. For electric trucks and buses, the number will be 40% or higher, the group said.

In the upcoming year, Searle said the agency is monitoring the Environmental Protection Agency’s plans to propose new greenhouse gas emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles starting in the 2027 model year.

“With the IRA already promoting electric vehicles, EPA can and should be bold in setting ambitious standards for cars and trucks,” Searle said. “This is one of the Biden administration’s last chances for strong climate action within this term and they should make good use of it.”


Taking aim at methane gas emissions
The package imposes a tax on energy producers that exceed a certain level of methane gas emissions. Polluters pay a penalty of $900 per metric ton of methane emissions emitted in 2024 that surpass federal limits, increasing to $1,500 per metric ton in 2026.

It’s the first time the federal government has imposed a fee on the emission of any greenhouse gas. Global methane emissions are the second-biggest contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide and come primarily from oil and gas extraction, landfills and wastewater and livestock farming.

Methane is a key component of natural gas and is 84 times more potent than carbon dioxide, but doesn’t last as long in the atmosphere. Scientists have contended that limiting methane is needed to avoid the worst consequences of climate change. 

Robert Kleinberg, a researcher at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, said the methane emitted by the oil and gas industry each year would be worth about $2 billion if it was instead used to generate electricity or heat homes.

“Reducing methane emissions is the fastest way to moderate climate change. Congress recognized this in passing the IRA,” Kleinberg said. “The methane fee is a draconian tax on methane emitted by the oil and gas industry in 2024 and beyond.”

In addition to the IRA provision on methane, the Biden Interior Department this year proposed rules to curb methane leaks from drilling, which it said will generate $39.8 million a year in royalties for the U.S. and prevent billions of cubic feet of gas from being wasted through venting, flaring and leaks. 


Boosting clean energy manufacturing
The bill provides $60 billion for clean energy manufacturing, including $30 billion for production tax credits to accelerate domestic manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and critical minerals processing, and a $10 billion investment tax credit to manufacturing facilities that are building EVs and clean energy technology, reinforcing the view that decarbonization is irreversible among policymakers.

There’s also $27 billion going toward a green bank called the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which will provide funding to deploy clean energy across the country, particularly in overburdened communities, and guide utility carbon-free electricity investments at scale. And the bill has a hydrogen production tax credit, which provides hydrogen producers with a credit based on the climate attributes of their production methods.

Emily Kent, the U.S. director of zero-carbon fuels at the Clean Air Task Force, a global climate nonprofit, said the bill’s support for low-emissions hydrogen is particularly notable since it could address sectors like heavy transportation and heavy industry, which are hard to decarbonize.

“U.S. climate policy has taken a major step forward on zero-carbon fuels in the U.S. and globally this year,” Kent said. “We look forward to seeing the impacts of these policies realized as the hydrogen tax credit, along with the hydrogen hubs program, accelerate progress toward creating a global market for zero-carbon fuels.”

The clean energy manufacturing provisions in the IRA will also have major implications for startups in the climate space and the big venture capital firms that back them. Carmichael Roberts, head of investment at Breakthrough Energy Ventures, has said the climate initiatives under the IRA will give private investors more confidence in the climate space and could even lead to the creation of up to 1,000 companies.

“Everybody wants to be part of this,” Roberts told CNBC following the passage of the bill in August. Even before the measure passed, “there was already a big groundswell around climate,” he said.


Investing in communities burdened by pollution
The legislation invests more than $60 billion to address the unequal effects of pollution and climate change on low-income communities and communities of color. The funding includes grants for zero-emissions technology and vehicles, and will help clean up Superfund sites, improve air quality monitoring capacity, and provide money to community-led initiatives through Environmental and Climate Justice block grants.

Research published in the journal Environmental Science and Technology Letters found that communities of color are systematically exposed to higher levels of air pollution than white communities due to redlining, a federal housing discrimination practice. Black Americans are also 75% more likely than white Americans to live near hazardous waste facilities and are three times more likely to die from exposure to pollutants, according to the Clean Air Task Force.

Biden signed an executive order after taking office aimed to prioritize environmental justice and help mitigate pollution in marginalized communities. The administration established the Justice40 Initiative to deliver 40% of the benefits from federal investments in climate change and clean energy to disadvantaged communities. 

More recently, the EPA in September launched an office focused on supporting and delivering grant money from the IRA to these communities.


Cutting ag emissions
The deal includes $20 billion for programs to slash emissions from the agriculture sector, which accounts for more than 10% of U.S. emissions, according to EPA estimates.

The president has pledged to reduce emissions from the agriculture industry in half by 2030. The IRA funds grants for agricultural conservation practices that directly improve soil carbon, as well as projects that help protect forests prone to wildfires.

Separately, this year the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced it will spend $1 billion on projects for farmers, ranchers and forest landowners to use practices that curb emissions or capture and store carbon. That program is focusing on projects for conservation practices including no-till, cover crops and rotational grazing.

Research suggests that removing carbon already in the atmosphere and replenishing soil worldwide could result in a 10% carbon drawdown.

 

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Shanghai Electric Signs Agreement to Launch PEM Hydrogen Production Technology R&D Center, Empowering Green Hydrogen Development in China

Shanghai Electric PEM Hydrogen R&D Center advances green hydrogen via PEM electrolysis, modular megawatt electrolyzers, zero carbon production, and full-chain industrial applications, accelerating decarbonization, clean energy integration, and hydrogen economy scale-up across China.

 

Key Points

A joint R&D hub advancing PEM electrolysis, modular megawatt systems, and green hydrogen industrialization.

✅ Megawatt modular PEM electrolyzer design and system integration

✅ Zero-carbon hydrogen targeting mobility, chemicals, and power

✅ Full-chain collaboration from R&D to EPC and demonstration projects

 

Shanghai Electric has reached an agreement with the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (the "Dalian Institute") to inaugurate the Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) Hydrogen Production Technology R&D Center on March 4. The two parties signed a project cooperation agreement on Megawatt Modular and High-Efficiency PEM Hydrogen Production Equipment and System Development, marking an important step forward for Shanghai Electric in the field of hydrogen energy.

As one of China's largest energy equipment manufacturers, Shanghai Electric is at the forefront in the development of green hydrogen as part of China's clean energy drive. During this year's Two Sessions, the 14th Five-Year Plan was actively discussed, in which green hydrogen features prominently, and Shell's 2060 electricity forecast underscores the scale of electrification. With strong government support and widespread industry interest, 2021 is emerging as Year Zero for the hydrogen energy industry.

Currently, Shanghai Electric and the Dalian Institute have reached a preliminary agreement on the industrial development path for new energy power generation and electrolyzed water hydrogen production. As part of the cooperation, both will also continue to enhance the transformational potential of PEM electrolyzed water hydrogen production, accelerate the development of competitive PEM electrolyzed hydrogen products, and promote industrial applications and scenarios, drawing on projects like Japan's large H2 energy system to inform deployment. Moreover, they will continue to carry out in-depth cooperation across the entire hydrogen energy industry chain to accelerate overall industrialization.

Hydrogen energy boasts the biggest potential of all the current forms of clean energy, and the key to its development lies in its production. At present, hydrogen production primarily stems from fossil fuels, industrial by-product hydrogen recovery and purification, and production by water electrolysis. These processes result in significant carbon emissions. The rapid development of PEM water electrolysis equipment worldwide in recent years has enabled current technologies to achieve zero carbon emissions, effectively realizing green, clean hydrogen. This breakthrough will be instrumental in helping China achieve its carbon peak and carbon-neutrality goals.

The market potential for hydrogen production from electrolyzed water is therefore massive. Forecasts indicate that, by 2050, hydrogen energy will account for approximately 10% of China's energy market, with demand reaching 60 million tons and annual output value exceeding RMB 10 trillion. The Hydrogen: Tracking Energy Integration report released by the International Energy Agency in June 2020 notes that the number of global electrolysis hydrogen production projects and installed capacity have both increased significantly, with output skyrocketing from 1 MW in 2010 to more than 25 MW in 2019. Much of the excitement comes from hydrogen's potential to join the ranks of natural gas as an energy resource that plays a pivotal role in international trade, as seen in Germany's call for hydrogen-ready power plants shaping future power systems, with the possibility of even replacing it one day. In PwC's 2020 The Dawn of Green Hydrogen report, the advisory predicts that experimental hydrogen will reach 530 million tons by mid-century.

Shanghai Electric set its focus on hydrogen energy years ago, given its major potential for growth as one of the new energy technologies of the future and, in particular, its ability to power new energy vehicles. In 2016, the Central Research Institute of Shanghai Electric began to invest in R&D for key fuel cell systems and stack technologies. In 2020, Shanghai Electric's independently-developed fuel cell engine, which boasts a power capacity of 66 kW and can start in cold temperature environments of as low as -30°C, passed the inspection test of the National Motor Vehicle Product Quality Inspection Center. It adopts Shanghai Electric's proprietary hydrogen circulation system, which delivers strong power and impressive endurance, with the potential to replace gasoline and diesel engines in commercial vehicles.

As the technology matures, hydrogen has entered a stage of accelerated industrialization, with international moves such as Egypt's hydrogen MoU with Eni signaling broader momentum. Shanghai Electric is leveraging the opportunities to propel its development and the green energy transformation. As part of these efforts, Shanghai Electric established a Hydrogen Energy Division in 2020 to further accelerate the development and bring about a new era of green, clean energy.

As one of the largest energy equipment manufacturing companies in China, Shanghai Electric, with its capability for project development, marketing, investment and financing and engineering, procurement and construction (EPC), continues to accelerate the development and innovation of new energy. The Company has a synergistic foundation and resource advantages across the industrial chain from upstream power generation, including China's nuclear energy development efforts, to downstream chemical metallurgy. The combined elements will accelerate the pace of Shanghai Electric's entry into the field of hydrogen production.

Currently, Shanghai Electric has deployed a number of leading green hydrogen integrated energy industry demonstration projects in Ningdong Base, one of China's four modern coal chemical industry demonstration zones. Among them, the Ningdong Energy Base "source-grid-load-storage-hydrogen" project integrates renewable energy generation, energy storage, hydrogen production from electrolysis, and the entire industrial chain of green chemical/metallurgy, where applications like green steel production in Germany illustrate heavy-industry decarbonization.

In December 2020, Shanghai Electric inked a cooperation agreement to develop a "source-grid-load-storage-hydrogen" energy project in Otog Front Banner, Inner Mongolia. Equipped with large-scale electrochemical energy storage and technologies such as compressed air energy storage options, the project will build a massive new energy power generation base and help the region to achieve efficient cold, heat, electricity, steam and hydrogen energy supply.

 

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Subsea project to bring renewable power from Scotland to England awarded $1.8bn

Eastern Green Link 1 is a 190km HVDC subsea electricity superhighway linking Scotland to northern England, delivering renewable energy, boosting grid capacity, and enhancing energy security for National Grid and Scottish Power.

 

Key Points

A 190km HVDC subsea link sending Scottish renewables to northern England, boosting grid capacity and UK energy security.

✅ 190km HVDC subsea route from East Lothian to County Durham

✅ Cables by Prysmian; converter stations by GE Vernova, Mytilineos

✅ Powers the equivalent of 2 million UK households

 

One of Britain’s biggest power grid projects has awarded contracts worth £1.8bn for a 190km subsea electricity superhighway, akin to a hydropower line to New York in scale, to bring renewable power from Scotland to the north of England.

National Grid and Scottish Power, following a recent 2GW substation commissioning, plan to begin building the “transformative” £2.5bn high-voltage power line along the east coast of the country from East Lothian to County Durham from 2025.

The Eastern Green Link 1 (EGL1) project is one of Britain’s largest grid upgrade projects in generations and has been designed to carry enough clean electricity to power the equivalent of 2 million households.

The UK is under pressure to deliver a power grid overhaul, including moves to fast-track grid connections nationwide, as it prepares to double its demand for electricity by 2040 as part of a plan to cut the use of gas and other fossil fuels.

The International Energy Agency has forecast that 600,000km of electric lines will need to be either added or upgraded across the UK by the end of the next decade to meet its climate targets, amid a global race to secure supplies of high voltage cabling and other electrical infrastructure components and to explore superconducting cables to cut losses.

The EGL1 project has awarded Prysmian Group, an international cable maker, the contract to deliver nearly 400km of power cable. The contract to supply two HVDC technology converter stations, one at each end of the cable, has been awarded to GE Vernova and Mytilineos.

The upgrades are expected to cost tens of billions of pounds, according to National Grid, which faces plans for an independent system operator overseeing Great Britain’s electricity market. The FTSE 100 energy company has warned that five times as many pylons and underground lines need to be constructed by the end of the decade than in the past 30 years, and four times more undersea cables laid than there are at present.

Britain’s power grid upgrades are also expected to emerge as an important battleground in the general election. The next government will need to balance the strong local opposition to new grid infrastructure across rural areas of the UK against the climate and economic benefits of the work.

Research undertaken by National Grid has found there will be an estimated 400,000 jobs created by 2050 due to the work needed to rewire Britain’s grid, a trend mirrored by recent cross-border transmission approvals in North America, including about 150,000 jobs anticipated in Scotland and the north of England.

Peter Roper, the project director for EGL1, said the super-cable would be “a transformative project for the UK, enhancing security of supply and helping to connect and transport green power for all customers”.

He added: “These contract announcements are big wins for the supply chain and another important milestone as we build the new network infrastructure to help the UK meet its net zero and energy security ambitions.

 

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China To Generate Electricity From Compressed Air

China Compressed-Air Energy Storage enables grid flexibility using salt caverns in Jiangsu, delivering long-duration storage for wind and solar, 60 MW capacity, dispatchable power, and low-cost, safe, round-the-clock clean energy integration.

 

Key Points

Stores off-peak power by compressing air in salt caverns, then drives turbines on demand to balance renewables.

✅ 60 MW Jintan plant connects to grid; commercial CAES milestone

✅ Uses salt caverns; low-cost long-duration storage; high safety

✅ Balances wind and solar; improves grid flexibility and reliability

 

China is set to connect its first commercial compressed-air energy storage plant to the grid as it seeks more ways to harness fast-growing clean power resources, including new hydropower alongside other long-duration options such as gravity power technologies for around-the-clock use.

China Huaneng Group Co. said its Jiangsu Jintan Salt Cave project recently underwent four days of successful trials and is now ready for commercial operations. The 60-megawatt plant will be the largest compressed air energy storage plant built anywhere in the world since 1991, and the first in China outside of small-scale technology demonstration projects, as China's electricity demand patterns remain in flux, according to BloombergNEF.

The plant will use electricity at night when demand is low to pump air into an underground salt cavern. Then, when demand is high during the day, it can release the compressed air at high enough pressure to spin a turbine and produce electricity, aligning with projections that 60% electricity by 2060 could be reached according to industry outlooks.

Underground compressed air is considered one of the least costly forms of long-term energy storage and has low safety concerns, according to BloombergNEF. But its reliance on certain topographical features such as underground caverns may limit wider deployment, a challenge shared by other regions weighing large-scale storage options for reliability. It’s gained a foothold in China, with nearly four gigawatts of projects in the pipeline, while there are less than two gigawatts combined planned in the rest of the world. Shandong province said just this week in this year's work plan that it would build three projects using the technology.

The Jintan salt caves in Jiangsu, China’s second-biggest provincial economy just north of Shanghai, can store about 10 million cubic meters of gas, enough to power four gigawatts of compressed air plants, according to a Science and Technology Daily report from last year. 

Energy storage is a key part of China’s plan to build a larger and more flexible grid as it tries to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and zero them out before 2060, alongside continued nuclear energy development to stabilize baseload supply. The country is adding a world-leading amount of wind and solar power every year, but their intermittency strains grids that need to be able to deliver electricity all the time, spurring interest in green hydrogen as a flexible complement. China has set targets of 30 gigawatts of new-energy storage by 2025 and 120 gigawatts of pumped hydro storage by 2030. 

 

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Report: Canada's renewable energy growth projections scaled back after Ontario scraps clean energy program

Canada Renewable Energy Outlook highlights IEA forecasts of slower capacity growth as Ontario cancels LRP auctions; wind, solar, and hydro expand amid carbon pricing, coal phase-out, Alberta tenders, and falling costs despite natural gas competition.

 

Key Points

The Canada Renewable Energy Outlook distills IEA projections and policies behind wind, solar, and hydro growth to 2022.

✅ IEA trims Canada renewables growth to 9 GW by 2022

✅ Ontario LRP cuts and Quebec tenders reduce near-term additions

✅ Wind, solar, hydro expand amid carbon pricing and coal phase-out

 

A new report expects growth in Canadian renewable energy capacity to slow in the next five years compared to earlier projections, a decrease that comes after Ontario scrapped a contentious clean energy program aimed at boosting wind and solar supplies.

The International Energy Agency’s annual outlook for renewable energy, released Wednesday, projects Canada’s renewable capacity to grow by nine gigawatts between 2017 and 2022, down from last year’s report that projected capacity would grow by 13GW.

The influential Paris-based agency said its recent outlook for Canadian renewables was “less optimistic” than its 2016 projection due to “recent changes in auctions schemes in Ontario and Quebec.”

 

PROGRAM CUTS

In mid-2016 the Ontario government suspended the second phase of its Large Renewable Procurement (LPR) program, axing $3.8 billion in planned renewable energy contracts. And Quebec cancelled tenders for several clean energy projects, which also led the agency to trim its forecasts, the report said.

Ontario cut the LRP program amid anger over rising electricity bills, which critics said was at least partly due to the rapid expansion of wind power supplies across the province.

Experts said the rise in costs was also partly due to major one-time costs to maintain aging infrastructure, particularly the $12.8-billion refurbishment of the Darlington nuclear plant located east of Toronto. The province also has plans to renovate the nearby Pickering nuclear plant in coming years.

The IEA report comes as Ottawa aims to drastically cut carbon emissions, largely by expanding renewable energy capacity. The provinces, including the Prairie provinces, have meanwhile been looking to pare back emissions by phasing out coal and implementing a carbon tax.

While Ontario’s decision to scrap the LRP program is a minor setback in the near-term, analysts say that tightening environmental policy in Canada and elsewhere will regardless continue to drive rapid growth in renewable energy supplies like wind power and solar.

Even the threat of cheap supplies of natural gas, a major competitor to renewable supplies, is unlikely to keep wind and solar supplies off the market, despite lagging solar demand in some regions, as costs continue to fall.

“It’s not just this (Ontario) renewables program, it’s the carbon pricing program, the coal phase out, a whole plethora of programs that are squeezing natural gas margins,” said Dave Sawyer, an economist at EnviroEconomics in Ottawa.

 

RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY

Canada’s renewable energy capacity is still expected to grow at a robust 10 per cent per year, the report said, and is expected to supply 69 per cent of overall power generation in the country by 2022.

The IEA, however, expects the growth in hydro power capacity to “slow significantly” beyond 2022, after a raft of new hydro projects come online.

Canadian hydro power capacity is projected to grow 2.2GW in the next five years, mostly due to the commissioning of the Keeyask plant in Manitoba the Muskrat Falls dam in Newfoundland and Labrador and the Romaine 3 and 4 stations in Quebec, in a sector where Canada ranks in the top 10 for hydropower jobs nationwide.

Solar capacity in Canada is expected to grow by 2GW to 4.7GW in 2022, approaching the 5 GW milestone in the near term, mostly due to feed-in-tariff programs in Ontario and renewable energy tenders currently underway in Alberta.

Globally, China and India lead renewable capacity growth projections. China alone is expected to be responsible for 40 per cent of renewable capacity growth in the next five years, while India will double its renewable electricity capacity by 2022. The world is collectively expected to grow renewable electricity capacity by 43 per cent between 2017 and 2022.

 

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