Rhode Island issues its plan to achieve 100% renewable electricity by 2030


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Rhode Island 100% Renewable Electricity by 2030 outlines pathways via offshore wind, retail solar, RECs, and policy reforms, balancing decarbonization, grid reliability, economics, and equity to close a 4,600 GWh supply gap affordably.

 

Key Points

A statewide plan to meet all electricity demand with renewables by 2030 via offshore wind, solar, and REC policies.

✅ Up to 600 MW offshore wind could add 2,700 GWh annually

✅ Retail solar programs may supply around 1,500 GWh per year

✅ Amend RES to retain RECs and align supply with real-time demand

 

A year ago, Executive Order 20-01 cemented in a place Rhode Island’s goal to meet 100% of the state’s electricity demand with renewable energy by 2030, aligning with the road to 100% renewables seen across states. The Rhode Island Office of Energy Resources (OER) worked through the year on an economic and energy market analysis, and developed policy and programmatic pathways to meet the goal.

In the most recent development, OER and The Brattle Group co-authored a report detailing how this goal will be achieved, The Road to 100% Renewable Electricity – The Pathways to 100%.

The report includes economic analysis of the key factors that will guide Rhode Island as it accelerates adoption of carbon-free renewable resources, complementing efforts that are tracking progress on 100% clean energy targets nationwide.

The pathway rests on three principles: decarbonization, economics and policy implementation, goals echoed in Maine’s 100% renewable electricity target planning.

The report says the state needs to address the gap between projected electricity demand in 2030 and projected renewable generation capacity. The report predicts a need for 4,600 GWh of additional renewable energy to close the gap. Deploying that much capacity represents a 150% increase in the amount of renewable energy the state has procured to date. The final figure could as much as 600-700 GWh higher or lower.

Addressing the gap
The state is making progress to close the gap.

Rhode Island recently announced plans to solicit proposals for up to 600 MW of additional offshore wind resources. A draft request for proposals (RFP) is expected to be filed for regulatory review in the coming months, aligning with forecasts that one-fourth of U.S. electricity will soon be supplied by renewables as markets mature. Assuming the procurement is authorized and the full 600 MW is acquired, new offshore wind would add about 2,700 GWh per year, or about 35% of 2030 electricity demand.

Beyond this offshore wind procurement, development of retail solar through existing programs could add another 1,500 GWh per year. That leaves a smaller–though still sizable–gap of around 400 GWh per year of renewable electricity.

All this capacity will come with a hefty price. The report finds that rate impacts would likely boost e a typical 2030 monthly residential bill by about $11 to $14 with utility-scale renewables, or by as much as $30 if the entire gap were to be filled with retail solar.

The upside is that if the renewable resources are developed in-state, the local economic activity would boost Rhode Island’s gross domestic product and local jobs, especially when compared to procuring out-of-state resources or buying Renewable Energy Credits (RECs), and comes as U.S. renewable electricity surpassed coal in 2022 across the national grid.

Policy recommendations
One policy item that has to be addressed is the state’s Renewable Energy Standard (RES), which currently calls for meeting 38.5% of electricity deliveries with renewables by 2035, even as the federal 2035 clean electricity goal sets a broader benchmark for decarbonization. For example, RES compliance at present does not require the physical procurement of power produced by renewable energy facilities. Instead, electricity providers meet their requirements by purchasing RECs.

The report recommends amending the state’s RES to seek methods by which Rhode Island can retain all of the RECs procured through existing policy and program channels, along with RECs resulting from ratepayer investment in net metered projects, while Nevada’s 50% by 2030 RPS provides a useful interim comparison.

The report also recognizes that the RES alone is unlikely to drive sufficient investment renewable generation and should be paired with programs and policies to ensure sufficient renewable generation to meet the 100% goal. The state also needs to address the RECs created by behind-the-meter systems that add mechanisms to better match the timing of renewable energy generation with real-time demand. The policy would have the 100% RES remain in effect beyond 2030 and also match shifts in energy demand, particularly as other parts of the economy electrify.

Fostering equity
The state also is putting a high priority on making sure the transition to renewables is an equitable one.

The report recommends partnering with and listening to frontline communities about their needs and goals in the clean energy transition. This will include providing traditionally underserved communities with expert consultation to help guide decision making. The report also recommends holding listening sessions to increase accessibility to and understanding of energy system basics.

 

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UK Electric Vehicle Sales Surge to Record High

UK electric vehicle sales reached a record high in September, with battery and hybrid cars making up over half of new registrations. SMMT credits carmaker discounts, new models, and a £3,750 EV grant for driving strong demand across the UK market.

 

Why are UK Electric Vehicle Sales Surging to a Record High?

UK electric vehicle sales are surging to a record high because automakers are offering major discounts, more models are available than ever, and the government’s new £3,750 EV grant is making electric cars more affordable and appealing to both fleets and private buyers.

✅ BEV sales up nearly one-third in September

✅ Over half of all new cars are now electrified

✅ £3,750 EV grants boost consumer confidence

 

Electric vehicle (EV) sales in the United Kingdom reached a record high last month, marking a significant milestone in the country’s transition to cleaner transportation. According to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), sales of pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) surged by nearly one-third to 72,779 units in September, while plug-in hybrid registrations grew even faster.

The combined total of fully electric and hybrid vehicles accounted for more than half of all new car registrations, underscoring the growing appeal of electrified transport, alongside global EV market growth, among both businesses and private consumers. In total, 312,887 new vehicles were registered across the country — the strongest September performance since 2020, according to SMMT data.

SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said the surge in electrified vehicle sales showed that “electrified vehicles are powering market growth after a sluggish summer.” He credited carmaker incentives, a wider choice of models, and government support for helping accelerate adoption, though U.S. EV market share dipped in Q1 2024 by comparison. “Industry investment in electric vehicles is paying off,” Hawes added, even as he acknowledged that “consumer demand still trails ambition.”

The UK government’s new electric car grant scheme has played a significant role in the rebound. The program offers buyers discounts of up to £3,750 on eligible EVs priced under £37,000. So far, more than 20,000 motorists have benefited, with 36 models approved for reductions of at least £1,500. Participating manufacturers include Ford, Toyota, Vauxhall, and Citroën.

Ian Plummer, chief commercial officer at Autotrader, said the grant had given a “real lift to the market,” echoing fuel-crisis EV inquiry surge in the UK. He noted that “since July, enquiries for new electric vehicles on Autotrader are up by almost 50%. For models eligible for the grant, interest has more than doubled.”

While the majority of BEVs — about 71.4% — were purchased by companies and fleets, the number of private buyers has also been increasing. Zero-emission vehicles now account for more than one in five (22.1%) new car registrations so far in 2025, similar to France’s 20% EV share record, highlighting the growing mainstream appeal of electric mobility.

The surge comes amid a challenging backdrop for the automotive sector, even as U.S. EV sales soared into 2024 across the Atlantic. The UK car industry is still reeling from the effects of US trade tariffs and recent disruptions, such as Jaguar Land Rover’s production shutdown following a cyberattack. Despite these hurdles, the strong September figures have boosted confidence in the industry’s recovery trajectory, and EU EV share grew during lockdown months offers precedent for resilience.

Among individual models, the Kia Sportage, Ford Puma, and Nissan Qashqai led overall sales, while two Chinese vehicles — the Jaecoo 7 and BYD Seal U — entered the top ten, reflecting China’s growing footprint in the UK market. Analysts say the arrival of competitively priced Chinese EVs could further intensify competition and drive prices lower for consumers.

With electrified vehicles now dominating new registrations and fresh government incentives in place, industry observers believe the UK is gaining momentum toward its long-term net-zero goals. The challenge, however, remains converting business fleet enthusiasm into sustained private-buyer confidence through affordable models, with UK consumer price concerns still a factor, reliable charging infrastructure, and continued policy support.

 

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Peer-to-peer energy breakthrough could allow solar and wind energy sources to be shared

Microgrid solar outage algorithms optimize renewable energy during blackouts using grid-forming inverters, islanding control, demand forecasting, and energy storage from batteries and EVs, improving reliability by up to 35% for resilient power sharing.

 

Key Points

Algorithms that island homes, forecast demand, and prioritize critical loads using storage and grid-forming inverters.

✅ Disconnects inverters to form resilient neighborhood microgrids

✅ Forecasts solar, wind, and demand; allocates energy fairly

✅ Uses EVs and batteries; boosts reliability by up to 35%

 

Some people who have solar panels on their roof are under the impression that they can use them to power their home in the case of an outage, but that simply is not the case. Homes do remain connected to the grid during outages, as U.S. power outage risks grow, but the devices tasked with managing solar panels are normally turned off due to safety concerns. This permanent grid connection essentially prevents homeowners from drawing on the power that their own renewable energy resources generate.

This could be about to change, however, thanks to the efforts of a team of University of California San Diego engineers who have come up with algorithms that would enable homes to share and use their power in outages by disconnecting solar inverters from the grid. Their algorithms work with the existing technology and would have the added benefit of boosting the system’s reliability by as much as 35 percent.

The genius of their work lies in the ability of the algorithm to prioritize the distribution of power from the renewable resources in outages. Their equation considers forecasts for wind and solar power generation to address clean energy intermittency challenges and the available energy storage, including batteries and electric vehicles. It combines this information with the projected energy usage of residents and the amount of energy the homes are able to produce. It can be programmed to prioritize in several different ways, the most vital of which is by favoring those who need power urgently, such as those using life support equipment. It could also prioritize those who are willing to pay extra or reward those who typically generate an energy surplus during normal operations.

 

Learning lessons from past outages

Lead author Abdulelah H. Habib said the engineers were inspired to find a way to use the renewable power in outages by the events of Hurricane Sandy. This storm affected more than eight million people on the nation’s East Coast, some of whom were left without power for as long as two weeks.

According to the researchers, most customers prefer sharing community-scale storage systems over having systems in each home because of the lower costs. One of the paper’s senior authors, Raymond de Callafon, said that homes that are connected together are not only more resilient in power outages but they also happen to be more resilient to price fluctuations.

Each home needs to be equipped with special circuit breakers that can be remotely controlled, while utilities would need to install some communications methods so the power systems within a particular residential cluster can communicate amongst themselves. They also need a “grid forming inverter” to help them connect to one another and manage excess solar on networks safely.

One stumbling block that will have to be overcome is the current regulations. Most states do not allow individual homeowners to sell power to other homeowners, so there would have to be some adjustments to make this a reality.

 

Solar power growing in popularity

Solar power’s popularity is currently on the rise, and reductions in cost as the technology improves are only expected to drive this growth even further. REC CEO Steve O’Neil told CNBC that the installation rates of solar double every two years, a trend that informs residential solar economics for homeowners even though just two percent of the planet’s electricity comes from converting sunlight to energy. This means there is plenty of room for expansion. The world’s current solar capacity is 305 gigawatts, compared to just 50 gigawatts in 2010.

In addition, he pointed out that the price of solar energy has dropped by 70 percent since the year 2010 and continues to fall; it costs around eight cents per kilowatt hour at the moment. Another factor that could boost adoption is storage improvements, driven by affordable solar batteries that expand capacity, which will allow solar energy to be used even on overcast days.

 

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Shanghai Electric Signs Agreement to Launch PEM Hydrogen Production Technology R&D Center, Empowering Green Hydrogen Development in China

Shanghai Electric PEM Hydrogen R&D Center advances green hydrogen via PEM electrolysis, modular megawatt electrolyzers, zero carbon production, and full-chain industrial applications, accelerating decarbonization, clean energy integration, and hydrogen economy scale-up across China.

 

Key Points

A joint R&D hub advancing PEM electrolysis, modular megawatt systems, and green hydrogen industrialization.

✅ Megawatt modular PEM electrolyzer design and system integration

✅ Zero-carbon hydrogen targeting mobility, chemicals, and power

✅ Full-chain collaboration from R&D to EPC and demonstration projects

 

Shanghai Electric has reached an agreement with the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (the "Dalian Institute") to inaugurate the Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) Hydrogen Production Technology R&D Center on March 4. The two parties signed a project cooperation agreement on Megawatt Modular and High-Efficiency PEM Hydrogen Production Equipment and System Development, marking an important step forward for Shanghai Electric in the field of hydrogen energy.

As one of China's largest energy equipment manufacturers, Shanghai Electric is at the forefront in the development of green hydrogen as part of China's clean energy drive. During this year's Two Sessions, the 14th Five-Year Plan was actively discussed, in which green hydrogen features prominently, and Shell's 2060 electricity forecast underscores the scale of electrification. With strong government support and widespread industry interest, 2021 is emerging as Year Zero for the hydrogen energy industry.

Currently, Shanghai Electric and the Dalian Institute have reached a preliminary agreement on the industrial development path for new energy power generation and electrolyzed water hydrogen production. As part of the cooperation, both will also continue to enhance the transformational potential of PEM electrolyzed water hydrogen production, accelerate the development of competitive PEM electrolyzed hydrogen products, and promote industrial applications and scenarios, drawing on projects like Japan's large H2 energy system to inform deployment. Moreover, they will continue to carry out in-depth cooperation across the entire hydrogen energy industry chain to accelerate overall industrialization.

Hydrogen energy boasts the biggest potential of all the current forms of clean energy, and the key to its development lies in its production. At present, hydrogen production primarily stems from fossil fuels, industrial by-product hydrogen recovery and purification, and production by water electrolysis. These processes result in significant carbon emissions. The rapid development of PEM water electrolysis equipment worldwide in recent years has enabled current technologies to achieve zero carbon emissions, effectively realizing green, clean hydrogen. This breakthrough will be instrumental in helping China achieve its carbon peak and carbon-neutrality goals.

The market potential for hydrogen production from electrolyzed water is therefore massive. Forecasts indicate that, by 2050, hydrogen energy will account for approximately 10% of China's energy market, with demand reaching 60 million tons and annual output value exceeding RMB 10 trillion. The Hydrogen: Tracking Energy Integration report released by the International Energy Agency in June 2020 notes that the number of global electrolysis hydrogen production projects and installed capacity have both increased significantly, with output skyrocketing from 1 MW in 2010 to more than 25 MW in 2019. Much of the excitement comes from hydrogen's potential to join the ranks of natural gas as an energy resource that plays a pivotal role in international trade, as seen in Germany's call for hydrogen-ready power plants shaping future power systems, with the possibility of even replacing it one day. In PwC's 2020 The Dawn of Green Hydrogen report, the advisory predicts that experimental hydrogen will reach 530 million tons by mid-century.

Shanghai Electric set its focus on hydrogen energy years ago, given its major potential for growth as one of the new energy technologies of the future and, in particular, its ability to power new energy vehicles. In 2016, the Central Research Institute of Shanghai Electric began to invest in R&D for key fuel cell systems and stack technologies. In 2020, Shanghai Electric's independently-developed fuel cell engine, which boasts a power capacity of 66 kW and can start in cold temperature environments of as low as -30°C, passed the inspection test of the National Motor Vehicle Product Quality Inspection Center. It adopts Shanghai Electric's proprietary hydrogen circulation system, which delivers strong power and impressive endurance, with the potential to replace gasoline and diesel engines in commercial vehicles.

As the technology matures, hydrogen has entered a stage of accelerated industrialization, with international moves such as Egypt's hydrogen MoU with Eni signaling broader momentum. Shanghai Electric is leveraging the opportunities to propel its development and the green energy transformation. As part of these efforts, Shanghai Electric established a Hydrogen Energy Division in 2020 to further accelerate the development and bring about a new era of green, clean energy.

As one of the largest energy equipment manufacturing companies in China, Shanghai Electric, with its capability for project development, marketing, investment and financing and engineering, procurement and construction (EPC), continues to accelerate the development and innovation of new energy. The Company has a synergistic foundation and resource advantages across the industrial chain from upstream power generation, including China's nuclear energy development efforts, to downstream chemical metallurgy. The combined elements will accelerate the pace of Shanghai Electric's entry into the field of hydrogen production.

Currently, Shanghai Electric has deployed a number of leading green hydrogen integrated energy industry demonstration projects in Ningdong Base, one of China's four modern coal chemical industry demonstration zones. Among them, the Ningdong Energy Base "source-grid-load-storage-hydrogen" project integrates renewable energy generation, energy storage, hydrogen production from electrolysis, and the entire industrial chain of green chemical/metallurgy, where applications like green steel production in Germany illustrate heavy-industry decarbonization.

In December 2020, Shanghai Electric inked a cooperation agreement to develop a "source-grid-load-storage-hydrogen" energy project in Otog Front Banner, Inner Mongolia. Equipped with large-scale electrochemical energy storage and technologies such as compressed air energy storage options, the project will build a massive new energy power generation base and help the region to achieve efficient cold, heat, electricity, steam and hydrogen energy supply.

 

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Is it finally time to buy an electric car?

Electric Vehicles deliver longer range, faster charging, and broader price options, with incentives and lease deals reducing costs; evaluate performance, home charging, road trip needs, and vehicle types like SUVs, pickups, and vans.

 

Key Points

Electric vehicles are battery-powered cars that cut costs, boost performance, and charge at home or at fast stations.

✅ Longer range and faster charging reduce range anxiety

✅ Lower operating costs vs gas: fuel, maintenance, incentives

✅ Home Level 2 charging recommended; plan for road trips

 

Electric cars now drive farther, charge faster and come in nearly every price range. But when GMC began promoting its Hummer EV pickup truck to be released this year, it became even clearer that electric cars are primed to go mainstream for many buyers.

Once the domain of environmentalists, then early adopters, electric vehicles may soon have even truck bros kicking the gasoline habit, though sales are still behind gas cars in many markets.

With many models now available or coming soon — and arriving ahead of schedule for several automakers — including a knockoff of the lovable Volkswagen Microbus — you may be wondering if it’s finally time to buy or lease one.

Here are the essential questions to answer before you do.

(Full disclosure: I’m a convert myself after six years and 70,000 gas-free miles.)


1. Can you afford an electric car?
Electric vehicles tend to be pricy to buy but can be more affordable to lease. Finding federal, state and local government incentives can also reduce sticker shock. And, even if the monthly payment is higher than a comparable gas car, operating costs are lower.

Gas vehicles cost an average of $3,356 per year to fuel, tax and insure, while electric cost just $2,722, according to a study by Self Financial, and Consumer Reports finds EVs save money in the long run too. Find out how much you can save with the Department of Energy calculator.

 

2. How far do you need to drive on a single charge?
Although almost 60 percent of all car trips in America were less than 6 miles in 2017, according to the Department of Energy, the phrase “range anxiety” scared many would-be early adopters.

Teslas became popular in part because they offered 250 miles of range. But the range of many electric vehicles between charges is now over 200 miles; even the modestly priced Chevrolet Bolt can travel 259 miles on a single charge.

Still, electric vehicles have a “road trip problem,” according to Josh Sadlier, director of content strategy for car site Edmunds.com. “If you like road trips, you almost have to have two cars — one for around town and one for longer trips,” he says.

 

3. Where will you charge it?
If you live in an apartment without a charging station, this could be a deal breaker.

The number of public chargers increased by 60 percent worldwide in 2019, according to the International Energy Agency. While these stations — some of which are free — are more available, most electric vehicle owners install a home station for faster charging.

Electric vehicles can be charged by plugging into a common 120-volt household outlet, but it’s slow, and understanding charging costs can help you plan home use. To speed up charging, many electric vehicle owners wind up buying a 240-volt charging station and having an electrician install it for a total cost of $1,200, according to the home remodeling website Fixr.

4. What will you use the car for?
While there are a few luxury electric SUVs on the market, most electric vehicles are smaller sedans or hatchbacks with limited cargo capacity. However, the coming wave of electric cars are more versatile, and many experts expect that within a decade these options will be commonplace, including vans, such as the Microbus, and trucks, such as an electric version of the popular Ford F-150 pickup.

5. Do you enjoy performance?
This is where electric vehicles really shine. According to automotive experts, electric cars beat their gas counterparts in these ways:

Immediate response with great low-end acceleration, particularly in the 0-30 mph range.
Sure-footed handling due to the heavy battery mounted under the car, giving it a low center of gravity.
No “shift shock” from changing gears in a conventional gas car’s transmission.
Little noise except from the wind and tires.

 

Other factors
Once you consider the big questions, here are other reasons to make an electric car your next choice:

Reduced environmental guilt. There is a persistent myth that electric vehicles simply move the emissions from the tailpipe to the power generating station. Yes, producing electricity produces emissions, but many electric vehicle owners charge at night when much of the electricity would otherwise be unused. According to research published by the BBC and evidence that they are better for the planet in many scenarios electric cars reduce emissions by an average of 70 percent, depending on where people live.

Less time refueling. It takes only seconds to plug in at home, and the electric vehicle will recharge while you’re doing other things. No more searching for gas stations and standing by as your tank gulps down gasoline.

No oil changes. Dealers like a constant stream of drivers coming in for oil changes so they can upsell other services. Electric vehicles have fewer moving parts and require fewer trips to the dealership for maintenance.

Carpool lanes and other perks. Check your state regulations to see if an electric vehicle gets you access to the carpool lane, free parking or other special advantages.

Enjoy the technology. Yes, electric vehicles are more expensive, but they also tend to offer top-of-the-line comfort, safety features and technology compared with their gas counterparts.

 

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Can food waste be turned into green hydrogen to produce electricity?

Food Waste to Green Hydrogen uses biological production to create clean energy, enabling waste-to-energy, decarbonization, and renewable hydrogen for electricity, industrial processes, and transport fuels, developed at Purdue University Northwest with Purdue Research Foundation licensing.

 

Key Points

A biological process converting food waste into renewable hydrogen for clean energy, electricity, industry, and transport.

✅ Enables rapid, scalable waste-to-hydrogen deployment

✅ Supports grid power, industrial heat, and mobility fuels

✅ Backed by patents, DOE grants, and licensing deals

 

West Lafayette, Indiana-based Purdue Research Foundation recently completed a licensing agreement with an international energy company – the name of which was not disclosed – for the commercialization of a new process discovered at Purdue University Northwest (PNW) for the biological production of green hydrogen from food waste. A second licensing agreement with a company in Indiana is under negotiation.


Food waste into green hydrogen
Researchers say that this new process, which uses food waste to biologically produce hydrogen, can be used as a clean energy source for producing electricity, as well as for chemical and industrial processes like green steel production or as a transportation fuel.

Robert Kramer, professor of physics at PNW and principal investigator for the research, says that more than 30% of all food, amounting to $48 billion, is wasted in the United States each year. That waste could be used to create hydrogen, a sustainable energy source alongside municipal solid waste power options. When hydrogen is combusted, the only byproduct is water vapor.

The developed process has a high production rate and can be implemented quickly to support large H2 energy systems in practice. The process is robust, reliable, and economically viable for local energy production and processes.

The research team has received five grants from the US Department of Energy and the Purdue Research Foundation totaling around $800,000 over the last eight years to develop the science and technology that led to this process, much like advances in advanced nuclear reactors drive clean energy innovation.

Two patents have been issued, and a third patent is currently in the final stages of approval. Over the next nine months, a scale-up test will be conducted, reflecting how power-to-gas storage can integrate with existing infrastructure. Based upon test results, it is anticipated that construction could start on the first commercial prototype within a year.

Last week, a facility designed to turn non-recyclable plastics into green hydrogen was approved in the UK, as other innovations like the seawater power concept progress globally. It is the second facility of its kind there.

 

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Electric vehicles can fight climate change, but they’re not a silver bullet: U of T study

EV Adoption Limits highlight that electric vehicles alone cannot meet emissions targets; life cycle assessment, carbon budgets, clean grids, public transit, and battery materials constraints demand broader decarbonization strategies, city redesign, and active travel.

 

Key Points

EV Adoption Limits show EVs alone cannot hit climate targets; modal shift, clean grids, and travel demand are essential.

✅ 350M EVs by 2050 still miss 2 C goals without major mode shift

✅ Grid demand rises 41%, requiring clean power and smart charging

✅ Battery materials constraints need recycling, supply diversification

 

Today there are more than seven million electric vehicles (EVs) in operation around the world, compared with only about 20,000 a decade ago. It’s a massive change – but according to a group of researchers at the University of Toronto’s Faculty of Applied Science & Engineering, it won’t be nearly enough to address the global climate crisis. 

“A lot of people think that a large-scale shift to EVs will mostly solve our climate problems in the passenger vehicle sector,” says Alexandre Milovanoff, a PhD student and lead author of a new paper published in Nature Climate Change. 

“I think a better way to look at it is this: EVs are necessary, but on their own, they are not sufficient.” 

Around the world, many governments are already going all-in on EVs. In Norway, for example, where EVs already account for half of new vehicle sales, the government has said it plans to eliminate sales of new internal combustion vehicles by 2025. The Netherlands aims to follow suit by 2030, with France and Canada's EV goals aiming to follow by 2040. Just last week, California announced plans to ban sales of new internal combustion vehicles by 2035.

Milovanoff and his supervisors in the department of civil and mineral engineering – Assistant Professor Daniel Posen and Professor Heather MacLean – are experts in life cycle assessment, which involves modelling the impacts of technological changes across a range of environmental factors. 

They decided to run a detailed analysis of what a large-scale shift to EVs would mean in terms of emissions and related impacts. As a test market, they chose the United States, which is second only to China in terms of passenger vehicle sales. 

“We picked the U.S. because they have large, heavy vehicles, as well as high vehicle ownership per capita and high rate of travel per capita,” says Milovanoff. “There is also lots of high-quality data available, so we felt it would give us the clearest answers.” 

The team built computer models to estimate how many electric vehicles would be needed to keep the increase in global average temperatures to less than 2 C above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100, a target often cited by climate researchers. 

“We came up with a novel method to convert this target into a carbon budget for U.S. passenger vehicles, and then determined how many EVs would be needed to stay within that budget,” says Posen. “It turns out to be a lot.” 

Based on the scenarios modelled by the team, the U.S. would need to have about 350 million EVs on the road by 2050 in order to meet the target emissions reductions. That works out to about 90 per cent of the total vehicles estimated to be in operation at that time. 

“To put that in perspective, right now the total proportion of EVs on the road in the U.S. is about 0.3 per cent,” says Milovanoff. 

“It’s true that sales are growing fast, but even the most optimistic projections of an electric-car revolution suggest that by 2050, the U.S. fleet will only be at about 50 per cent EVs.” 

The team says that, in addition to the barriers of consumer preferences for EV deployment, there are technological barriers such as the strain that EVs would place on the country’s electricity infrastructure, though proper grid management can ease integration. 

According to the paper, a fleet of 350 million EVs would increase annual electricity demand by 1,730 terawatt hours, or about 41 per cent of current levels. This would require massive investment in infrastructure and new power plants, some of which would almost certainly run on fossil fuels in some regions. 

The shift could also impact what’s known as the demand curve – the way that demand for electricity rises and falls at different times of day – which would make managing the national electrical grid more complex, though vehicle-to-grid strategies could help smooth peaks. Finally, there are technical challenges stemming from the supply of critical materials for batteries, including lithium, cobalt and manganese. 

The team concludes that getting to 90 per cent EV ownership by 2050 is an unrealistic scenario. Instead, what they recommend is a mix of policies, rather than relying solely on a 2035 EV sales mandate as a singular lever, including many designed to shift people out of personal passenger vehicles in favour of other modes of transportation. 

These could include massive investment in public transit – subways, commuter trains, buses – as well as the redesign of cities to allow for more trips to be taken via active modes such as bicycles or on foot. They could also include strategies such as telecommuting, a shift already spotlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

“EVs really do reduce emissions, which are linked to fewer asthma-related ER visits in local studies, but they don’t get us out of having to do the things we already know we need to do,” says MacLean. “We need to rethink our behaviours, the design of our cities, and even aspects of our culture. Everybody has to take responsibility for this.” 

The research received support from the Hatch Graduate Scholarship for Sustainable Energy Research and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.

 

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