Harbour Air's electric aircraft a high-flying example of research investment

Inflation Reduction Act Energy Credits help households electrify with tax credits and rebates for heat pumps, EVs, rooftop solar, battery storage, and efficiency upgrades, cutting utility bills, reducing carbon emissions, and accelerating home electrification nationwide.

Key Points

Federal incentives offering tax credits and rebates for heat pumps, EVs, solar, and efficiency to cut emissions.

✅ 30% rooftop solar and storage credit; $2,000 annual cap for heat pumps

✅ Up to $7,500 EV tax credit; price, income, and assembly rules apply

✅ Low-income rebates and discounts available via states starting mid-2023

Earlier this year, Congress passed the biggest climate bill in history — cloaked under the name the “Inflation Reduction Act,” a historic climate deal by any measure.

Starting in the new year, the bill will offer households thousands of dollars to transition over from fossil-fuel burning heaters, stoves and cars to cleaner versions as renewable electricity accelerates. On Jan. 1, middle-income households will be able to access over a half-dozen tax credits for electric stoves, cars, rooftop solar and more. And starting sometime in mid-2023, lower-income households will be able to get upfront discounts on some of those same appliances — without having to wait to file their taxes to get the cash back. This handy online tool shows what you might be eligible for, depending on your Zip code and income.

But which credits should Americans focus on — and which are best for the climate? Here’s a guide to the top climate-friendly benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act, and how to access them.

Heat pumps — the best choice for decarbonizing at home

Tax credit available on Jan. 1: 30 percent of the cost, up to $2,000

Income limit: None

Ah, heat pumps — one of the most popular technologies of the transition to clean energy and to net-zero electricity systems. “Heat pump” is a bit of a misnomer for these machines, which are more like super-efficient combo air conditioning and heating systems. These appliances run on electricity and move heat, instead of creating it, and so can be three to five times more efficient than traditional gas or electrical resistance heaters.

“For a lot of people, a heat pump is going to be their biggest personal impact,” said Sage Briscoe, the federal senior policy manager at Rewiring America, a clean-energy think tank. (Heat pumps have become so iconic that Rewiring America even has a heat pump mascot.)

Heat pumps can have enormous cost and carbon savings. According to one analysis using data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, switching to a heat pump can save homeowners anywhere from $100 to $1,200 per year on heating bills and prevent anywhere from 1 to 8 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year. For comparison, going vegan for an entire year saves about 1 metric ton of CO2 emissions.

But many consumers encounter obstacles when switching over to heat pumps. In some areas, it can be difficult to find a contractor trained and willing to install them; some homeowners report that contractors share misinformation about heat pumps, including that they don’t work in cold climates. (Modern heat pumps do work in cold climates, and can heat a home even when outdoor temperatures are down to minus-31 degrees Fahrenheit.) Briscoe recommends that homeowners look for skilled contractors who know about heat pumps and do advance research to figure out which models might work best for their home.

Electric vehicles — top choice for cutting car emissions

Tax credit available on Jan. 1: Up to $7,500 depending on the make and model of the car

Income limit: <$150,000 for single filers; <$300,000 for joint filers

If you are like the millions of Americans who don’t live in a community with ample public transit, the best way to decarbonize your transport, as New Zealand's electricity transition shows, is switching to an electric car. But electric cars can be prohibitively expensive for many Americans.

Starting Jan. 1, a new EV tax credit will offer consumers up to $7,500 off the purchase of an electric vehicle. For the first few months, Americans will get somewhere between $3,751 and $7,500 off their purchase of an EV, depending on the size of the battery in the car.

There are limitations, per the new law. The vehicles will also have to be assembled in North America, where Canada's electricity progress is notable, and cars that cost more than $55,000 aren’t eligible, nor are vans or trucks that cost more than $80,000. This week, the Internal Revenue Service provided a list of vehicles that are expected to meet the criteria starting Jan. 1.

Beginning about March, however, that $7,500 credit will be split into two parts: Consumers can get a $3,750 credit if the vehicle has a battery containing at least 40 percent critical minerals from the United States (or a country that the United States has a free-trade agreement with) and another $3,750 credit if at least 50 percent of the battery’s components were assembled and manufactured in North America. Those rules haven’t been finalized yet, so the tax credit starting on Jan. 1 is a stopgap measure until the White House has ironed out the final version.

Joe Britton, the executive director of the EV industry group Zeta, said that means there will likely be a wider group of vehicles eligible for the full tax credit in January and February than there will be later in 2023. Because of this, he recommended that potential EV owners act fast in 2023.

“I would be buying a car in the first quarter,” he said.

Rooftop solar — the best choice for generating clean energy

Tax credit available now: 30 percent of the cost of installation, no cap

Income limit: None

For those who want to generate their own clean energy, there is always rooftop solar panels. This tax credit has actually been available since the Inflation Reduction Act was signed into law in August 2022. It offers a tax credit equal to 30 percent of the cost of installing rooftop solar, with no cap. According to Rewiring America, the average 6 kilowatt solar installation costs about $19,000, making the average solar tax credit about $5,700. (The Inflation Reduction Act also includes a 30 percent tax credit for homeowners that need to upgrade their electricity panel for rooftop solar, and a 30 percent tax credit for installing battery storage to support the shift toward carbon-free electricity solutions.)

Solar panels can save homeowners tens of thousands of dollars in utility bills as extreme heat boosts electricity bills and, when combined with battery storage, can also provide a power backup in the case of a blackout or other disaster. For someone trying to move their entire home away from fossil fuels, solar panels become even more enticing: Switch everything over to electricity, and then make the electricity super cheap with the help from the sun.

For people who don’t own their own homes, there are other options as well. Renters can subscribe to a community solar project to lower their electricity bills and get indirect benefits from the tax credits.

Tips, tricks and words of caution
There are many other credits also coming out in 2023: for EV chargers (up to $1,000), a boon for expanding carbon-free electricity across the grid, heat pump water heaters (up to $2,000), and even cash for sealing up the doors and windows of your home (up to $1,200).

The most important thing to know, Briscoe said, is whether you qualify for the upfront discounts for low- and moderate-income Americans — which won’t be available until later in 2023 — or the tax credits, which will be available Jan. 1. (Try this tool.) If going the tax credit route, it’s better to spread the upgrades out across multiple years, since there is an annual limit on how many of the credits you can claim in a given year. And, she warned, it is not always going to be easy: It can be hard to find the right installers and the right information for how to make use of all the available government resources.

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Ontario EV Charging Network Delay highlights permitting hurdles, grid limitations, and public-private rollout challenges across 250 sites, as two-thirds of 475 chargers go live while full provincewide infrastructure deployment slips to fall.

Key Points

A provincial rollout setback where permitting and grid issues delay full activation of Ontario's 475 public EV chargers.

✅ Two-thirds of 475 chargers live by the initial deadline

✅ Remaining stations expected online by fall

✅ Delays tied to permits, site conditions, and grid capacity

The Ontario government admitted Wednesday that it will fall short of meeting its deadline this Friday of creating a network of 475 electric vehicle charging stations in 250 locations across the province, and it's blaming unforeseen problems for the delay.

"We know some of our partners have encountered difficulties around permitting and some of the technical aspects of having some of the chargers up and running, even as we work to make it easier to build EV charging stations across Ontario," said Transportation Minister Steven Del Duca.

Two-thirds of the network will be live on Friday with the rest of the stations expected to be up and running by fall, according to the Ministry of Transportation. 

"Each of our partners' individual charging stations are subject to different site conditions, land ownership, municipal permitting, electrical grid limitations, as seen in regions where EV infrastructure lags, and other factors which have influenced timelines," said Bob Nichols, senior media liaison officer for the Transportation Ministry, in a statement. 

Because the stations are located in various community centres, retail outlets and other public spaces, Del Duca said the government's public and private sector partners are facing challenges in obtaining permits but are "motivated to get it right."

Cara Clairman, president and CEO of Plug'n Drive, an organization dedicated to accelerating the rollout of electric vehicles, says she isn't concerned about the delay.

"It was a pretty aggressive timeline. The EV community is pretty happy with the fact that it is going to happen. It might be slightly delayed but I think overall the mood is positive," she said.

Clairman said there are now more than 10,000 electric vehicles in the province and that more growth is expected as Ontario's next EV wave emerges in the market. She doesn't believe the delay in the rollout of charging stations will deter anyone from purchasing electric vehicles, even amid EV shortages and wait times in some segments.

"It certainly does help to persuade new folks to get on board but I think since they know it is coming, I don't see it having a big impact." 

Horwath not surprised

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath said she's not surprised the government didn't meet its target.

"You shouldn't be making these promises if you can't fulfil them, that's the bottom line," she said. "Let's be realistic with
what you're able to achieve."

Progressive Conservative transportation critic Michael Harris suggested the Liberals don't have their priorities straight when it comes to electric vehicles.

"I think the focus for Kathleen Wynne was handing out $14,000 rebates to owners of Teslas, while they really should have been focusing their time and energy on ensuring that the infrastructure for electric vehicles has actually been rolled out," Harris said.

Covering every corner

Del Duca said the ministry has seen "some fairly tremendous success" despite the delays but that there have been a few challenges in building a network that ranges across the province, even as N.L.'s first fast-charging network is touted as just the beginning elsewhere. 

"We definitely want to make sure we're building a network that covers every corner of Ontario. Yes, we have some challenges and we are slightly delayed," the minister said.

"We anticipate being able to provide more resources in the coming months to continue to deploy an even broader network of charging infrastructure, including in northern Ontario."

Del Duca said a map on the ministry's website showing where the charging stations are installed should be updated in the next few days.

Premier Wynne committed to building a charging network for electric vehicles across Ontario at the 2015 climate change talks in Paris.

The $20 million in funding for the charging stations comes from Ontario's $325 million Green Investment Fund, which supports projects that fight climate change.

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EU Renewable Energy Transition accelerates as solar and wind overtake gas, cutting coal reliance and boosting REPowerEU goals; falling electricity demand, hydro and nuclear recovery, and grid upgrades drive a cleaner, secure power mix.

Key Points

It is the EU's shift to solar and wind, surpassing gas and curbing coal to meet REPowerEU targets.

✅ Solar and wind supplied 22% of EU electricity in 2022.

✅ Gas fell behind; coal stayed near 16% with no major rebound.

✅ Demand fell; hydro and nuclear expected to recover in 2023.

European countries were forced to accelerate their renewable energy capacity after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked a global energy crisis amid a surge in global power demand that exceeded pre-pandemic levels. The EU’s REPowerEU plan aims to increase the share of renewables in final energy consumption overall to 45 percent by the end of the decade.

However, a new report by energy think tank Ember shows that the EU’s green energy transition is already making a significant difference. Solar and wind power generated more than a fifth (22 percent) of its electricity in 2022, pulling ahead of fossil gas (20 percent) for the first time, according to the European Electricity Review 2023.

Europe also managed to avoid resorting to emissions-intensive coal power for electricity generation as a consequence of the energy crisis, even as renewables to eclipse coal globally by mid-decade. Coal generated just 16 percent of the EU’s electricity last year, an increase of just 1.5 percentage points.

“Europe has avoided the worst of the energy crisis,” says Ember’s Head of Data Insights, Dave Jones. “The shocks of 2022 only caused a minor ripple in coal power and a huge wave of support for renewables. Any fears of a coal rebound are now dead.”

Ember’s analysis reveals that the EU faced a "triple crisis" in the electricity sector in 2022, as stunted hydro and nuclear output compounded the shock. "Just as Europe scrambled to cut ties with its biggest supplier of fossil gas, it faced the lowest levels of hydro and nuclear (power) in at least two decades, which created a deficit equal to 7 percent of Europe’s total electricity demand in 2022," the report says. A severe drought across Europe, French nuclear outages as well as the closure of German nuclear outlets were responsible for the drop.

Solar power shines through
However, the record surge in solar and wind power generation helped compensate for the nuclear and hydropower deficit. Solar power rose the fastest, growing by a record 24 percent last year which almost doubled its previous record, with wind growing by 8.6 percent.

Forty-one gigawatts of solar power capacity was added in 2022, almost 50 percent more than the year before. Ember says that 20 EU countries achieved solar records in 2022, with Germany, Spain, Poland, the Netherlands and France adding the most solar capacity.

The Netherlands and Greece generated more power from solar than coal for the first time. Greece is also predicted to reach its 2030 solar capacity target by the end of this year.

EU electricity demand falls
A significant drop in electricity use in 2022 also helped lessen the impact of Europe’s energy crisis. Demand fell by 7.9 percent in the last quarter of the year, despite the continent heading into winter. This was close to the 9.6 percent fall experienced when Europe was in Covid-19 lockdown in mid-2020.

"Mild weather was a deciding factor, but affordability pressures likely played a role, alongside energy efficiency improvements and citizens acting in solidarity to cut energy demand in a time of crisis," the report says.

A ‘coal comeback’ fails to materialize
The almost 8 percent fall in electricity demand in the last three months of 2022 was the main factor in the 9 percent fall in gas and coal generation during that time. However, Ember says that had France’s nuclear plants been operating at the same capacity as 2021, the EU’s fossil fuel generation would have fallen twice as fast in the last quarter of 2022.

The report says: "Coal power in the EU fell in all four of the final months of 2022, down 6 percent year-on-year. The 26 coal units placed on emergency standby for winter ran at an average of just 18 percent capacity. Despite importing 22 million tonnes of extra coal throughout 2022, the EU only used a third of it."

Gas generation was very similar compared to 2021, up just 0.8 percent. It made up 20 percent of the EU electricity mix in 2022, up from 19 percent the year before.

Fossil fuel generation set to fall in 2023
Ember says low-emissions sources like solar and wind power will continue to accelerate in 2023 and hydropower and French nuclear capacity will also recover. With electricity demand likely to continue to fall, it estimates that fossil fuel-generation "could plummet" by 20 percent in 2023.

Gas generation will fall the fastest, Ember predicts, as it will remain more expensive than coal over the next few years. "The large fall in gas generation means the power sector is likely to be the fastest falling segment of gas demand during 2023, helping to bring calm to European gas markets as Europe adjusts to life without Russian gas."

In order to stick to the 2015 Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, Ember says Europe must fully decarbonize its power system by the mid-2030s. Its modeling shows that this is possible without compromising the security of supply.

However, the report says "making this vision a reality will require investment above and beyond existing plans, as well as immediate action to address barriers to the expansion of clean energy infrastructure. Such a mobilization would boost the European economy, cement the EU’s position as a climate leader and send a vital international message that these challenges can be overcome."

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Germany Solar Boom is accelerating amid energy security pressures, with photovoltaic capacity surging as renewables displace gas. Policy incentives, grid upgrades, and storage, plus agrivoltaics and rooftop systems, position solar as cornerstone of decarbonization.

Key Points

Germany Solar Boom is rapid PV growth enhancing energy security, cutting emissions, and expanding domestic, low-carbon electricity.

✅ Targets 250 GW PV by 2032 to meet rising electricity demand.

✅ Rooftop, agrivoltaics, and BIPV reduce land use and grid stress.

✅ Diversifies supply chains beyond China; boosts storage and flexibility.

Europe is in crisis mode. Climate change, increasing demand for energy, the war in Ukraine and Russia's subsequent throttling of oil and gas deliveries have pushed the continent into a new era.

Germany has been trapped in a corner. The country relies heavily on cheap imported natural gas to run its industries. Some power plants also use gas to produce electricity. Finding enough substitutes quickly is nearly impossible.

Ideas to prevent a looming power crisis in Germany have ranged from reducing demand to keeping nuclear power plants online past their official closing date at the end of the year. Large wind turbines are doing their part, but many people don't want them in their backyard.

Green activists have long believed renewable energies are the answer to keeping the lights on. But building up these capabilities takes time. Now many experts once again see solar power as a shining light at the end of the tunnel, as global renewables set fresh records worldwide. Some say a solar boom is in the making.

Before the war in Ukraine put energy security at the forefront, the new German government had already pledged that renewable sources — wind and solar — would make up 80% of electricity production by 2030 instead of 42% today. By 2035, electricity generation should be carbon neutral.

It is an ambitious plan, but the country seems to be on its way. July was the third month in a row when solar power output soared to a record level, trade publication pv magazine reported, and clean energy's share reached about 50% in Germany according to recent assessments. For the month, photovoltaic (PV) systems generated 8.23 ​​terawatt hours of power, around a fifth of net electricity production. They were only behind lignite-fired power plants, which brought in nearly 22% of net production. 

Solar cells hanging on a modular solar house during the Solar Decathlon Europe in Wuppertal, Germany
Solar panels can come in many different shapes and sizes, and be used in many different ways

Last year, Germany added more than 5 gigawatts of solar power capacity, 10% more than in 2020. That took the total solar power capacity to 59 gigawatts, overtaking installed onshore wind power capacity in Germany, pv magazine said in January. Last year's solar production was about 9% of gross electricity consumption, according to Harry Wirth, who is head of photovoltaic modules and power plant research at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems in Freiburg.

"For 2032, the government target is around 250 gigawatts of solar energy. According to their estimates, electricity consumption will increase to 715 terawatt hours by 2030," Wirth told DW. A different study by consultancy McKinsey says this is the lower limit. "So if we assume 730 terawatt hours for 2032, we would be at around 30% photovoltaic electricity in gross electricity consumption," he added. 

The energy expert also envisions great potential to install more solar panels without taking up valuable land. Besides adding them on top of parking garages or buildings, photovoltaic parts can be integrated into the exterior of buildings or even on the outside of e-vehicles. This would "not only produce electricity on surfaces already in use, but it would also create synergies in its own application," said Wirth.

Foreign investment in German solar
It is not just researchers that are taking note. Big businesses are stepping in too. In July, Portuguese clean energy firm EDP Renovaveis (EDPR) announced it had agreed to take a 70% interest in Germany's Kronos Solar Projects, a solar developer, for €250 million ($254 million).

The Munich-based company has a portfolio of 9.4 gigawatts of solar projects in different stages of development in Germany, France, the Netherlands and the UK, according to the press release announcing the purchase. Germany represents close to 50% of the acquired solar portfolio.

EDPR, which claims to be the fourth-largest renewable energy producer worldwide, said it generated 17.8 terawatt hours of clean energy in the first half of 2022.

Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade, chief executive of EDPR and its parent EDP, said they have great expectations from Germany in particular as "it is a key market in Europe with reinforced renewable growth targets." 

Fabian Karthaus is one of the first farmers in Germany to grow raspberries and blueberries under photovoltaic panels. His solar field near the city of Paderborn in northwestern Germany is 0.4 hectares (about 1 acre), but he would like to expand it to 10. He could then generate enough electricity for around 4,000 households — and provide more berries for supermarkets.

Germany was once a leader in solar power. For many years the country enjoyed a large share of the world's total solar capacities. A lot of that early success had to do with innovative government support. That support, however, proved too successful for some as a fall in wholesale electricity prices in Northern Europe hurt the profits of power companies, leading to calls for a change in the rules.

Updated regulations, and changes to the Renewable Energy Sources Act that reduced feed-in tariffs slowed things down. Feed-in tariffs usually grant long-term grid access and above-market price guarantees in an effort to support fledgling industries.

With less direct financial incentives, the industry was neglected leaving it open for competitors. The pace of solar infrastructure growth has also been hampered by issues of red tape, supply chain backlogs, a lack of skilled technicians and, despite solar-plus-storage now undercutting conventional power in Germany, a shortage of storage for electricity produced when it is not needed.

Now the war in Ukraine and Europe's dependency on Russia is refocusing efforts and "will strengthen the determination for an ambitious PV expansion," said Wirth. But the biggest challenge to the region's solar industry remains China.

Public buildings can play a big role, not just because of their size, but because the government is in charge of them

An overreliance on China
China took an early interest in photovoltaic technology and soon galloped past countries like the US, Japan and Germany thanks to huge state subsidies that manufacturers enjoyed. Today, it has become the place to go for all things solar, even as Europe turns to US solar equipment suppliers to diversify procurement.

A new report from the International Energy Agency puts it into numbers. "China has invested over $50 billion in new PV supply capacity — 10 times more than Europe — and created more than 300,000 manufacturing jobs across the solar PV value chain since 2011."

Today China has over 80% of all solar panel manufacturing capacity and is home to the top-10 suppliers of photovoltaic manufacturing equipment. Such a high concentration has led to some incredible realities, like the fact that "one out of every seven panels produced worldwide is manufactured by a single facility," according to the report.

These economies of scale have brought down costs, and the country can make solar components 35% cheaper than in Europe. This gives China outsized power and makes the industry susceptible to supply chain bottlenecks. To diversify the industry and get back some of this market, Europe needs to invest in innovation and make solar growth a top priority.

Germany has several high-tech photovoltaic manufacturers and research institutes. But it only has one manufacturer of solar cells specializing in high-performance heterojunction technology, says Wirth. Yet even though the European photovoltaic industry is fragmented and not what it once was, he is still counting on big demand for solar technology in the foreseeable future, with markets like Poland accelerating adoption across the region. 

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China Compressed-Air Energy Storage enables grid flexibility using salt caverns in Jiangsu, delivering long-duration storage for wind and solar, 60 MW capacity, dispatchable power, and low-cost, safe, round-the-clock clean energy integration.

Key Points

Stores off-peak power by compressing air in salt caverns, then drives turbines on demand to balance renewables.

✅ 60 MW Jintan plant connects to grid; commercial CAES milestone

✅ Uses salt caverns; low-cost long-duration storage; high safety

✅ Balances wind and solar; improves grid flexibility and reliability

China is set to connect its first commercial compressed-air energy storage plant to the grid as it seeks more ways to harness fast-growing clean power resources, including new hydropower alongside other long-duration options such as gravity power technologies for around-the-clock use.

China Huaneng Group Co. said its Jiangsu Jintan Salt Cave project recently underwent four days of successful trials and is now ready for commercial operations. The 60-megawatt plant will be the largest compressed air energy storage plant built anywhere in the world since 1991, and the first in China outside of small-scale technology demonstration projects, as China's electricity demand patterns remain in flux, according to BloombergNEF.

The plant will use electricity at night when demand is low to pump air into an underground salt cavern. Then, when demand is high during the day, it can release the compressed air at high enough pressure to spin a turbine and produce electricity, aligning with projections that 60% electricity by 2060 could be reached according to industry outlooks.

Underground compressed air is considered one of the least costly forms of long-term energy storage and has low safety concerns, according to BloombergNEF. But its reliance on certain topographical features such as underground caverns may limit wider deployment, a challenge shared by other regions weighing large-scale storage options for reliability. It’s gained a foothold in China, with nearly four gigawatts of projects in the pipeline, while there are less than two gigawatts combined planned in the rest of the world. Shandong province said just this week in this year's work plan that it would build three projects using the technology.

The Jintan salt caves in Jiangsu, China’s second-biggest provincial economy just north of Shanghai, can store about 10 million cubic meters of gas, enough to power four gigawatts of compressed air plants, according to a Science and Technology Daily report from last year. 

Energy storage is a key part of China’s plan to build a larger and more flexible grid as it tries to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and zero them out before 2060, alongside continued nuclear energy development to stabilize baseload supply. The country is adding a world-leading amount of wind and solar power every year, but their intermittency strains grids that need to be able to deliver electricity all the time, spurring interest in green hydrogen as a flexible complement. China has set targets of 30 gigawatts of new-energy storage by 2025 and 120 gigawatts of pumped hydro storage by 2030. 

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EV Tipping Point signals the S-curve shift to mainstream adoption as new car sales pass 5%, with the US joining Europe and China; charging infrastructure, costs, and supply align to accelerate electric car market penetration.

Key Points

The EV tipping point is when fully electric cars reach about 5% of new sales, triggering rapid S-curve adoption.

✅ 5% of new car sales marks start of mass adoption

✅ Follows S-curve seen in phones, LEDs, internet

✅ Barriers ease: charging, cost declines, model availability

Many people of a certain age can recall the first time they held a smartphone. The devices were weird and expensive and novel enough to draw a crowd at parties. Then, less than a decade later, it became unusual not to own one.

That same society-altering shift is happening now with electric vehicles, according to a Bloomberg analysis of adoption rates around the world. The US is the latest country to pass what’s become a critical EV tipping point: an EV inflection point when 5% of new car sales are powered only by electricity. This threshold signals the start of mass EV adoption, the period when technological preferences rapidly flip, according to the analysis.

For the past six months, the US joined Europe and China — collectively the three largest car markets — in moving beyond the 5% tipping point, as recent U.S. EV sales indicate. If the US follows the trend established by 18 countries that came before it, a quarter of new car sales could be electric by the end of 2025. That would be a year or two ahead of most major forecasts.

How Fast Is the Switch to Electric Cars?
19 countries have reached the 5% tipping point, and an earlier-than-expected shift is underway—then everything changes

Why is 5% so important? 
Most successful new technologies — electricity, televisions, mobile phones, the internet, even LED lightbulbs — follow an S-shaped adoption curve, with EVs going from zero to 2 million in five years according to market data. Sales move at a crawl in the early-adopter phase, then surprisingly quickly once things go mainstream. (The top of the S curve represents the last holdouts who refuse to give up their old flip phones.)

Electric cars inline tout
In the case of electric vehicles, 5% seems to be the point when early adopters are overtaken by mainstream demand. Before then, sales tend to be slow and unpredictable, and still behind gas cars in most markets. Afterward, rapidly accelerating demand ensues.

It makes sense that countries around the world would follow similar patterns of EV adoption. Most impediments are universal: there aren’t enough public chargers, grid capacity concerns linger, the cars are expensive and in limited supply, buyers don’t know much about them. Once the road has been paved for the first 5%, the masses soon follow.

Thus the adoption curve followed by South Korea starting in 2021 ends up looking a lot like the one taken by China in 2018, which is similar to Norway after its first 5% quarter in 2013. The next major car markets approaching the tipping point this year include Canada, Australia, and Spain, suggesting that within a decade many drivers could be in EVs worldwide. 

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