US Moving Towards 30% Electricity From Wind & Solar


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US Wind and Solar Outlook 2026 projects cheap renewables displacing coal and gas, with utility-scale additions, rooftop solar growth, improved grid reliability, and EV V2G integration accelerating decarbonization across the electricity market.

 

Key Points

An analysis forecasting wind and solar growth, displacing coal and gas as utility-scale and rooftop solar expand.

✅ Utility-scale solar installs avg 21 GW/yr through 2026.

✅ 37.7 GW wind in pipeline; 127.8 GW already online.

✅ Small-scale solar could near 100 TWh in 2026.

 

A recent report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) predicts that cheap renewables in the form of wind and solar will push coal and gas out of the energy market space. Already at 9% of US generation, the report predicts that wind and solar will supply almost 30% of US electricity demand by 2026, consistent with renewables nearing one-fourth of U.S. generation projections for the near term.

“The Solar Energy Industries Association now expects utility-scale installations to average more than 21,000MW a year through 2026, following a year when U.S. solar generation rose 25% and with a peak of 25,000MW in 2023,” IEEFA writes. “Continued growth is also expected in U.S. wind generation, mirroring global trends where China's solar PV expansion outpaced all other fuels in 2016, with 37.7GW of new capacity already under construction or in advanced development, which would be added to 127.8GW in existing installed capacity.”

Meanwhile, with wind and solar growth booming, fossil fuels are declining, as renewables surpassed coal in 2022 nationwide. “Coal and natural gas are now locked into an essentially zero-sum game where increases in one fuel’s generation comes at the expense of the other. Together, they are not gaining market share, rather they are trading it back and forth, and the rapid growth in renewable generation will cut even deeper into the market share of both.”

And what of rooftop solar? Some states in Australia now have periods where the entire state grid is powered just by solar on the roofs of private citizens. As this revolution progresses in the USA, especially if a tenfold national solar push moves forward, what impact will it make on fossil fuel generators — which are expensive to build, expensive to maintain, expensive to fuel, and rely on an expensive distribution network.

“EIA estimates that this ‘small-scale solar’ produced 41.7 million MWh of power in 2020, when solar accounted for about 3% of U.S. electricity, a 19 percent increase from 2019. This growth will likely continue in the years ahead as costs continue to fall and concerns about grid reliability rise. Assuming a conservative 15 percent annual increase in small-scale solar going forward would push the sector’s generation to almost 100 million MWh in 2026.”

The Joker in the story might be the impact from electric vehicle adoption. Sales are set to surge and there’s more and more interest in V2G technology, even as wind and solar could provide 50% by 2050 in broader forecasts.

 

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Wind is main source of UK electricity for first time

UK Renewable Energy Milestones: wind outpacing gas, record solar output, offshore wind growth, National Grid data, and a net-zero grid by 2035, despite planning reforms, connection queues, and grid capacity constraints.

 

Key Points

Key UK advances where wind beat gas, solar set records, and policies target a 2035 net-zero electricity grid.

✅ Wind generated one-third of electricity, outpacing gas

✅ Record solar output reported by National Grid in April

✅ Onshore wind easing via planning reforms; grid delays persist

 

In the first three months of this year a third of the country's electricity came from wind farms, with the UK leading the G20 for wind power according to research from Imperial College London has shown.

National Grid has also confirmed that April saw a record period of solar energy generation, and wind generation set new records earlier in the year.

By 2035 the UK aims for all of its electricity to have net zero emissions, though progress stalled in 2019 in some areas.

"There are still many hurdles to reaching a completely fossil fuel-free grid, but wind out-supplying gas for the first time, a sign of wind leading the power mix, is a genuine milestone event," said Iain Staffell, energy researcher at Imperial College and lead author of the report.

The research was commissioned by Drax Electrical Insights, which is funded by Drax energy company.

The majority of the UK's wind power has come from offshore wind farms, and wind generated more electricity than coal in 2016 marking an early shift. Installing new onshore wind turbines has effectively been banned since 2015 in England.

Under current planning rules, companies can only apply to build onshore wind turbines on land specifically identified for development in the land-use plans drawn up by local councils. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak agreed in December to relax these planning restrictions to speed up development.

Scientists say switching to renewable power is crucial to curb the impacts of climate change, with milestones like wind and solar topping nuclear underscoring the shift, which are already being felt, including in the UK, which last year recorded its hottest year since records began.

Solar and wind have seen significant growth in the UK. In the first quarter of 2023, 42% of the UK's electricity came from renewable energy, with 33% coming from fossil fuels like gas and record-low coal shares.

Some new solar and wind sites are waiting up to 10 to 15 years to be connected because of a lack of capacity in the electricity system.

And electricity only accounts for 18% of the UK's total power needs. There are many demands for energy which electricity is not meeting, such as heating our homes, manufacturing and transport.

Currently the majority of UK homes use gas for their heating - the government is seeking to move households away from gas boilers and on to heat pumps which use electricity.

 

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Unprecedented Growth in Solar and Storage Anticipated with Record Installations and Investments

U.S. Clean Energy Transition accelerates with IRA and BIL, boosting renewable energy, solar PV, battery storage, EV adoption, manufacturing, grid resilience, and jobs while targeting carbon-free electricity by 2035 and net-zero emissions by 2050.

 

Key Points

U.S. shift to renewables under IRA and BIL scales solar, storage, and EVs toward carbon-free power by 2035.

✅ Renewables reached ~22% of U.S. electricity generation in 2022.

✅ Nearly $13b in PV manufacturing; 94 plants; 25k jobs announced.

✅ Battery storage grew from 3% in 2017 to 36% by H1 2023.

 

In recent years, the United States has made remarkable strides in embracing renewable energy, with notable solar and wind growth helping to position itself for a more sustainable future. This transition has been driven by a combination of factors, including environmental concerns, economic opportunities, and technological advancements.

With the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), the United States is rapidly advancing its journey towards clean energy solutions.

To underscore the extent of this progress, consider the following vital statistics: In 2022, renewable energy sources (including hydroelectric power) accounted for approximately 22% of the nation's electricity generation, and renewables surpassed coal in the mix that year, while the share of renewables in total electricity generation capacity had risen to around 30% and the nation is moving toward 30% electricity from wind and solar as well.

Notably, in the transportation sector, consumers are increasingly embracing zero-emission fuels, such as electric vehicles. In 2022, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) represented 5.6% of new vehicle registrations, surging to 7.1% by the first half of 2023, according to estimates from EUPD Research.

The United States has set ambitious targets, including achieving 100% carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035 and aiming for economy-wide net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by no later than 2050, and policy proposals such as Biden's solar plan reinforce these goals for the power sector. These targets are poised to provide a significant boost to the clean energy sector in the country, reaffirming its commitment to a sustainable and environmentally responsible future.

 

IRA and BIL: Catalysts for Growth

The IRA and BIL represent a transformative shift in the landscape of clean energy policy, heralding a new era for the solar and energy storage sectors in the United States. The IRA allocates substantial resources to address the climate crisis, fortify domestic clean energy production, and solidify the U.S. as a global leader in clean energy manufacturing.

According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), an impressive investment exceeding $120 billion has been announced for the U.S. battery manufacturing and supply chain sector since the introduction of IRA and BIL. Additionally, plans have been unveiled for over 200 new or expanded facilities dedicated to minerals, materials processing, and manufacturing. This move is expected to create more than 75,000 potential job opportunities, strengthening the nation's workforce.

Following the introduction of IRA and BIL, solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing in the U.S. has also witnessed a substantial surge in planned investments, totaling nearly $13 billion, as reported by the DOE. Furthermore, a total of 94 new and expanded PV manufacturing plants have been announced, potentially generating over 25,000 jobs in the country.

 

Booming Solar Sector

In recent years, the U.S. solar sector has outpaced other energy sources, including a surging wind sector and natural gas, in terms of capacity growth. EUPD Research estimates reveal a notable upward trend in the contribution of solar capacity to annual power capacity additions, as 82% of the 2023 pipeline consists of wind, solar, and batteries across utility-scale projects. This trajectory has risen from 37% in 2019 to 38% in 2020, further increasing to 44% in 2021 and an impressive 45% in 2022.

Although the country experienced a temporary setback in 2022 due to pandemic-related delays, trade law enforcement, supply chain disruptions, and rising costs, it is now on track to make a historic addition to its PV capacity in 2023. According to EUPD Research's 2023 forecast, the U.S. is poised to achieve its largest-ever expansion in PV capacity, estimated at 32 to 35 GWdc, assuming the installation of all planned utility-scale capacity, and solar generation rose 25% in 2022 as a supportive indicator. Additionally, from 2023 to 2028, the U.S. is projected to add approximately 233 GWdc of PV capacity.

In terms of cumulative installed PV capacity (including utility-scale, commercial and industrial, and residential) on a state-by-state basis, California holds the top position, followed by Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona. Remarkably, Texas is rapidly expanding its utility-scale PV capacity and may potentially surpass California in the next two years.

 

Rapid Growth in Battery Storage

Battery energy storage has emerged as the dominant and rapidly expanding source of energy storage in the U.S. in recent years. The proportion of battery storage in the country's energy storage capacity has surged dramatically, increasing from a mere 3% in 2017 to a substantial 36% in the first half of 2023.

 

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Electricity or hydrogen - What is the future of vehicles?

Hydrogen vs Battery-Electric Vehicles compare FCEV and BEV tech for range, charging and refueling, zero-emissions, infrastructure in Canada, highlighting urban commuting, heavy-duty use, fast 5-minute fills, 30-minute fast charging, and renewable hydrogen from surplus wind.

 

Key Points

Hydrogen FCEVs suit long range and heavy-duty use; BEVs excel in urban commutes with overnight charging.

✅ FCEVs refuel in about 5 minutes; ideal for long range and heavy duty.

✅ BEVs fit urban commuting with home or night charging; fewer stops.

✅ Hydrogen enables energy storage from surplus wind and hydro power.

 

We’re constantly hearing that battery-electric cars are the future, as automakers pursue Canada-U.S. collaboration on EVs across the industry, so I was surprised to see that companies like Toyota, Honda and Hyundai are making hydrogen fuel-cell cars. Which technology is better? Could hydrogen still win? – Pete, Kingston

They’re both in their electric youth, relatively speaking, but the ultimate winner in the race between hydrogen and battery electric will likely be both.

“It’s not really a competition – they’ll both co-exist and there will also be plug-in hydrogen hybrids,” said Walter Merida, director of the Clean Energy Research Centre at the University of British Columbia. “Battery-electric vehicles [BEVs] are better for an urban environment where you have time to recharge and fuel-cell electric vehicles [FCEVs] are better-suited for long range and heavy duty.”

Last year, there were 9,840 BEVs sold in Canada, up from 5,130 the year before. If you include plug-in hybrids, the number sold in 2017 grows to 18,560, though many buyers now face EV shortages and wait times amid high gasoline prices.

And how many hydrogen vehicles were sold in Canada last year?

#google#

None – although Hyundai leased out about a half-dozen hydrogen Tucsons in British Columbia for $599 a month, which included fuel from Powertech labs in Surrey.

In January, Toyota announced it will be selling the Mirai in Quebec later this year. And Hyundai said it will offer about 25 Nexos for sale.

“It’s chicken or egg,” said Michael Fowler, a professor of chemical engineering at the University of Waterloo. “Car manufacturers won’t release cars into the market unless there’s a refuelling station and companies won’t build a refuelling station unless there are cars to fuel.”

Right now, there are no retail hydrogen refuelling stations in Canada. While there are plans under way to add stations in B.C., Ontario and Quebec, we’re still behind Japan, Europe and California, though experts outline how Canada can capitalize on the U.S. EV pivot to accelerate progress.

“In 2007, Ontario had a hydrogen strategy and they were starting to develop hydrogen vehicles and they dropped that in favour of the Green Energy Act and it was a complete disaster,” Fowler said. “The reality is the government of the day listened to the wrong people.”

It’s tough to pinpoint a single reason why governments focused on building charging stations instead of hydrogen stations, Merida said.

“It’s ironic, you know – the fuel cell was invented in Vancouver. Geoffrey Ballard was one of the pioneers of this technology,” Merida said. “And for a while, Canada was a global leader, but eventually government programs were discontinued and that was very disruptive to the sector.”

 

HYDROGEN FOR THE MASSES?

While we tend to think of BEVs when we think of electric cars, fuel-cell vehicles are electric, too; the hydrogen passes through a fuel cell stack, where it mixes with oxygen from the atmosphere to produce an electric current.

That current powers electric motors to drive the wheels and extra energy goes to a battery pack that’s used to boost acceleration (it’s also charged by regenerative braking).

Except for water that drips out of the hydrogen car, they’re both zero-emission on the road.

But a big advantage for hydrogen is that, if you can find a station, you can pull up to a pump and fill up in five minutes or less – the same way we do now at nearly 12,000 gas stations.

Compare that with fast-charging stations that can charge a battery to 80 per cent in 30 minutes – each station only handles one car at a time. What if you get there and it’s busy – or broken? And right now, there are only 139 of them in Canada.

And at slower, Level 2 stations, cars have to be plugged in for hours to recharge.

In a 2018 KPMG survey of auto executives, 55 per cent said that moves to switch entirely to pure battery-electric vehicles will fail because there won’t be enough charging stations, and some critics argue the 2035 EV mandate is delusional given infrastructure constraints.

“Ontario just invested $20-million in public charging stations and that’s going to service 100 or 200 cars a day,” Fowler said. “If you were to invest that in hydrogen stations, you’d be able to service thousands of cars a day.”

And when you do charge at a station, you might not be using clean power, as 18% of Canada’s 2019 electricity came from fossil fuels according to national data, Fowler said.

“At least in Ontario, in order to charge at a public station during the day, you have to rev up a natural-gas plant somewhere,” Fowler said. “So the only way you’re getting zero emissions is when you can charge at night using excess nuclear, hydro or wind that’s not being used.”

But hydrogen can be made when surplus green energy is stored, Fowler said.

“In Ontario, we have lots of wind in the spring and the fall, when we don’t need the electricity,” he said.

And eventually, you’ll be able to connect your fuel-cell vehicle to the grid and sell the power it produces, Merida said.

“The amount of power generation you have in these moving platforms is quite significant,” Merida said.

There are other strikes against battery-electric, including reduced range by 30 per cent or more in the winter and the need to upgrade infrastructure such as electrical transformers so they can handle more than just a handful of cars on each street charging at night, Fowler said.

In that KPMG survey, executives predicted a nearly equal split between BEVs, FCEVs, hybrids and gasoline engines by 2040.

“Battery-electric vehicles will serve a certain niche – they’ll be small commuter vehicles in certain cities,” Fowler said. “But for the way we use cars today – the family car, the suburban car, buses and probably trucks – it will be the fuel cell.”

 

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What to know about DOE's hydrogen hubs

U.S. Clean Hydrogen Hubs aim to scale production, storage, transport, and use as DOE and the Biden administration fund regional projects under the infrastructure law, blending green and blue hydrogen, carbon capture, renewables, and pipelines.

 

Key Points

Federally funded regional projects to make, move, and use low-carbon hydrogen via green, blue, and pink routes.

✅ $7B DOE funding via infrastructure law

✅ Mix of green, blue, pink hydrogen pathways

✅ Targets 10M metric tons annually by 2030

 

New details are emerging about the Biden administration’s landmark plans to build out a U.S. clean hydrogen industry.

On Friday, the Department of Energy named the seven winners of $7 billion in federal funds to establish regional hydrogen hubs. The hubs — funded through the infrastructure law — are part of the administration’s efforts to jump-start an industry it sees as key to achieving climate goals like the goal of 100 percent clean electricity by 2035 set by the administration. The aim is to demonstrate everything from the production and storage of hydrogen to its transport and consumption.

“All across the country, from coast to coast, in the heartland, we’re building a clean energy future here in America, not somewhere else,” President Joe Biden said while announcing the hubs in Philadelphia.

From 79 initial proposals, DOE chose the following: the Mid-Atlantic Hydrogen Hub, Appalachian Hydrogen Hub, California Hydrogen Hub, Gulf Coast Hydrogen Hub, Heartland Hydrogen Hub, Midwest Hydrogen Hub and Pacific Northwest Hydrogen Hub.

Many of the winning proposals are backed by state government leaders and industry partners, and by Southeast cities that have ramped up clean energy purchases in recent years as well. The Midwest hub, for example, is a coalition of Illinois, Indiana and Michigan — supported by politicians like Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), as well as such companies as Air Liquide, Ameren Illinois and Atlas Agro. The mid-Atlantic hub is supported by Democratic members of Congress representing the region, including Delaware Sens. Chris Coons and Tom Carper and Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester.

The administration hopes the hubs will produce 10 million metric tons of “clean” hydrogen annually by 2030. But much about the projects remains unknown — including how trends like cheap batteries for solar could affect clean power supply — and dependent on negotiations with DOE.


A win for ‘blue’ hydrogen?
Nearly all hydrogen created in the U.S. today is extracted from natural gas through steam methane reformation. The emissions-intensive process produces what is known as “grey” hydrogen — or “blue” hydrogen when combined with carbon capture and storage.

Four recipients — the Appalachian, Gulf Coast, Heartland and Midwest hydrogen hubs — include blue hydrogen in their plans, though the infrastructure law only mandated one.

That has drawn the ire of environmentalists, who argue blue hydrogen is not emissions-free, partly because of the potential for methane leaks during the production process.

“This is worse than expected,” Clean Energy Group President Seth Mullendore said after the recipients were announced Friday. “The fact that more than half the hubs will be using fossil gas is outrageous.”

Critics have also pointed out that many of the industry partners backing the hub projects include oil and gas companies. The coalitions are a mix of private-sector groups — often including renewable energy developers — and government stakeholders. Proposals have also looped in universities, utilities, environmental groups, community organizations, labor unions and tribal nations, among others.

“The massive build out of hydrogen infrastructure is little more than an industry ploy to rebrand fracked gas,” said Food & Water Watch Policy Director Jim Walsh in a statement Friday. “In a moment when every political decision that we make must reject fossil expansion, the Biden administration is going in the opposite direction.”

The White House has emphasized that roughly two-thirds of the $7 billion pot is “associated” with the production of “green” hydrogen, which uses electricity from renewable sources. Two of the chosen proposals — in California and the Pacific Northwest — are making green hydrogen their focus, reflecting advances such as offshore green hydrogen being pursued by industry leaders, while three other hubs plan to include green hydrogen alongside hydrogen made with natural gas (blue) or nuclear energy (pink).

Many hubs plan to use several methods for hydrogen production, and globally, projects like Brazil's green hydrogen plant highlight the scale of investment, but the exact mix may change depending on which projects make it through the DOE negotiations process. The Midwest hub, for example, told E&E News it’s pursuing an “all-of-the-above” strategy and has projects for green, blue and “pink” hydrogen. The mid-Atlantic hub in southeastern Pennsylvania, Delaware and New Jersey will also generate hydrogen with nuclear reactors.

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has described clean hydrogen as a fresh business opportunity, especially for the natural gas industry, which has supported the concept of sending hydrogen to market through its pipeline network. Lawmakers like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) — who said the Appalachian hub will make West Virginia the “new epicenter of hydrogen” — have pushed for continuing to use natural gas to make hydrogen in his state.

“Natural gas utilities are committed to exploring all options for emissions reduction as demonstrated by the 39 hydrogen pilot projects already underway and are eager to participate in a number of the hubs,” said American Gas Association President and CEO Karen Harbert in a statement Friday.

Green hydrogen also has faced criticism. Some groups argue that the renewable resources needed to produce green hydrogen are limited, even with sources such as wind, solar and hydropower technology, so funding should be reserved for applications that cannot be easily electrified, mostly industrial processes. There also is uncertainty about how the Treasury Department will handle hydrogen made from grid electricity — which can include power from fossil fuel plants — in its upcoming guidance on the first-ever tax credit for clean hydrogen production.

“Even the cleanest forms of hydrogen present serious problems,” Walsh said. “As groundwater sources are drying up across the country, there is no reason to waste precious drinking water resources on hydrogen when there are cheaper, cleaner energy sources that can facilitate a real transition off fossil fuels.”

But Angelina Galiteva, CEO of the hub in drought-prone California, said hydrogen will enable the state “to increase renewable penetration to reach all corners of the economy,” noting parallel initiatives such as Dubai's solar hydrogen plans that illustrate the potential.

“Transitioning to renewable clean hydrogen will pose significantly less stress on water resources than remaining on the current fossil path,” she said.

 

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Solar is now ‘cheapest electricity in history’, confirms IEA

IEA World Energy Outlook 2020 highlights solar power as the cheapest electricity, projects faster renewables growth, models net-zero pathways, assesses COVID-19 impacts, oil and gas demand, and policy scenarios including STEPS, SDS, and NZE2050.

 

Key Points

A flagship IEA report analyzing energy trends, COVID-19 impacts, renewables growth, and pathways to net-zero in 2050.

✅ Solar now the cheapest electricity in most major markets

✅ Scenarios: STEPS, SDS, NZE2050, plus delayed recovery case

✅ Oil and gas demand uncertain; CO2 peak needs stronger policy

 

The world’s best solar power schemes now offer the “cheapest…electricity in history” with the technology cheaper than coal and gas in most major countries.

That is according to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2020. The 464-page outlook, published today by the IEA, also outlines the “extraordinarily turbulent” impact of coronavirus and the “highly uncertain” future of global energy use and progress in the global energy transition over the next two decades.

Reflecting this uncertainty, this year’s version of the highly influential annual outlook offers four “pathways” to 2040, all of which see a major rise in renewables across markets. The IEA’s main scenario has 43% more solar output by 2040 than it expected in 2018, partly due to detailed new analysis showing that solar power is 20-50% cheaper than thought.

Despite a more rapid rise for renewables and a “structural” decline for coal, the IEA says it is too soon to declare a peak in global oil use, unless there is stronger climate action. Similarly, it says demand for gas could rise 30% by 2040, unless the policy response to global warming steps up.

This means that, while global CO2 emissions have effectively peaked flatlining in 2019 according to the IEA, they are “far from the immediate peak and decline” needed to stabilise the climate. The IEA says achieving net-zero emissions will require “unprecedented” efforts from every part of the global economy, not just the power sector.

For the first time, the IEA includes detailed modeling of a 1.5C pathway that reaches global net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. It says individual behaviour change, such as working from home “three days a week”, would play an “essential” role in reaching this new “net-zero emissions by 2050 case” (NZE2050).

Future scenarios
The IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) arrives every autumn and contains some of the most detailed and heavily scrutinised analysis of the global energy system. Over hundreds of densely packed pages, it draws on thousands of datapoints and the IEA’s World Energy Model.

The outlook includes several different scenarios, to reflect uncertainty over the many decisions that will affect the future path of the global economy, as well as the route taken out of the coronavirus crisis during the “critical” next decade. The WEO also aims to inform policymakers by showing how their plans would need to change if they want to shift onto a more sustainable path, including creating the right clean electricity investment incentives to accelerate progress.

This year it omits the “current policies scenario” (CPS), which usually “provides a baseline…by outlining a future in which no new policies are added to those already in place”. This is because “[i]t is difficult to imagine this ‘business as-usual’ approach prevailing in today’s circumstances”.

Those circumstances are the unprecedented fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, which remains highly uncertain as to its depth and duration. The crisis is expected to cause a dramatic decline in global energy demand in 2020, with oil demand also dropping sharply as fossil fuels took the biggest hit.

The main WEO pathway is again the “stated policies scenario” (STEPS, formerly NPS). This shows the impact of government pledges to go beyond the current policy baseline. Crucially, however, the IEA makes its own assessment of whether governments are credibly following through on their targets.

The report explains:

“The STEPS is designed to take a detailed and dispassionate look at the policies that are either in place or announced in different parts of the energy sector. It takes into account long-term energy and climate targets only to the extent that they are backed up by specific policies and measures. In doing so, it holds up a mirror to the plans of today’s policy makers and illustrates their consequences, without second-guessing how these plans might change in future.”

The outlook then shows how plans would need to change to plot a more sustainable path, highlighting efforts to replace fossil fuels with electricity in time to meet climate goals. It says its “sustainable development scenario” (SDS) is “fully aligned” with the Paris target of holding warming “well-below 2C…and pursuing efforts to limit [it] to 1.5C”. (This interpretation is disputed.)

The SDS sees CO2 emissions reach net-zero by 2070 and gives a 50% chance of holding warming to 1.65C, with the potential to stay below 1.5C if negative emissions are used at scale.

The IEA has not previously set out a detailed pathway to staying below 1.5C with 50% probability, with last year’s outlook only offering background analysis and some broad paragraphs of narrative.

For the first time this year, the WEO has “detailed modelling” of a “net-zero emissions by 2050 case” (NZE2050). This shows what would need to happen for CO2 emissions to fall to 45% below 2010 levels by 2030 on the way to net-zero by 2050, with a 50% chance of meeting the 1.5C limit, with countries such as Canada's net-zero electricity needs in focus to get there.

The final pathway in this year’s outlook is a “delayed recovery scenario” (DRS), which shows what might happen if the coronavirus pandemic lingers and the global economy takes longer to recover, with knock-on reductions in the growth of GDP and energy demand.

 

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Winds of Change: Vineyard Wind Ushers in a New Era for Clean Energy

Vineyard Wind Offshore Wind Farm delivers clean power to Massachusetts near Martha's Vineyard, with 62 turbines and 800 MW capacity, advancing renewable energy, cutting carbon, lowering costs, and driving net-zero emissions and green jobs.

 

Key Points

An 800 MW Massachusetts offshore project of 62 turbines supplying clean power to 400,000+ homes and cutting emissions.

✅ 800 MW powering 400,000+ MA homes and businesses

✅ 62 turbines, 13 MW each, 15 miles from Martha's Vineyard

✅ Cuts 1.6M tons CO2 annually; boosts jobs and port infrastructure

 

The crisp Atlantic air off the coast of Martha's Vineyard carried a new melody on February 2nd, 2024. Five colossal turbines, each taller than the Statue of Liberty, began their graceful rotations, marking the historic moment power began flowing from Vineyard Wind, the first large-scale offshore wind farm in the United States, enabled by Interior Department approval earlier in the project timeline. This momentous occasion signifies a seismic shift in Massachusetts' energy landscape, one that promises cleaner air, lower energy costs, and a more sustainable future for generations to come.

Nestled 15 miles southeast of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket, Vineyard Wind is a colossal undertaking. The project, a joint venture between Avangrid Renewables and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, will ultimately encompass 62 turbines, each capable of generating a staggering 13 megawatts. Upon full completion later this year, Vineyard Wind will power over 400,000 homes and businesses across Massachusetts, contributing a remarkable 800 megawatts to the state's energy grid.

But the impact of Vineyard Wind extends far beyond mere numbers. This trailblazing project holds immense environmental significance. By harnessing the clean and inexhaustible power of the wind, Vineyard Wind is projected to annually reduce carbon emissions by a staggering 1.6 million metric tons – equivalent to taking 325,000 cars off the road. This translates to cleaner air, improved public health, and a crucial step towards mitigating the climate crisis.

Governor Maura Healey hailed the project as a "turning point" in Massachusetts' clean energy journey. "Across the Commonwealth, homes and businesses will now be powered by clean, affordable energy, contributing to cleaner air, lower energy costs, and pushing us closer to achieving net-zero emissions," she declared.

Vineyard Wind's impact isn't limited to the environment; it's also creating a wave of economic opportunity. Since its inception in 2017, the project has generated nearly 2,000 jobs, with close to 1,000 positions filled by union workers thanks to a dedicated Project Labor Agreement. Construction has also breathed new life into the New Bedford Marine Commerce Terminal, with South Coast construction activity accelerating around the port, transforming it into the nation's first port facility specifically designed for offshore wind, showcasing the project's commitment to local infrastructure development.

"Every milestone on Vineyard Wind 1 is special, but powering up these first turbines stands apart," emphasized Pedro Azagra, CEO of Avangrid Renewables. "This accomplishment reflects the years of dedication and collaboration that have defined this pioneering project. Each blade rotation and megawatt flowing to Massachusetts homes is a testament to the collective effort that brought offshore wind power to the United States."

Vineyard Wind isn't just a project; it's a catalyst for change. It perfectly aligns with Massachusetts' ambitious clean energy goals, which include achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 and procuring 3,200 megawatts of offshore wind by 2028, while BOEM lease requests in the Northeast continue to expand the development pipeline across the region. As Energy and Environmental Affairs Secretary Rebecca Tepper stated, "Standing up a new industry is no easy feat, but we're committed to forging ahead and growing this sector to lower energy costs, create good jobs, and build a cleaner, healthier Commonwealth."

The launch of Vineyard Wind transcends Massachusetts, serving as a beacon for the entire U.S. offshore wind industry, as New York's biggest offshore wind farm moves forward to amplify regional momentum. This demonstration of large-scale development paves the way for further investment and growth in this critical clean energy source. However, the journey isn't without its challenges, and questions persist about reaching 1 GW on the grid nationwide as stakeholders navigate timelines. Concerns regarding potential impacts on marine life and visual aesthetics remain, requiring careful consideration and ongoing community engagement.

Despite these challenges, Vineyard Wind stands as a powerful symbol of hope and progress. It represents a significant step towards a cleaner, more sustainable future, powered by renewable energy sources at a time when U.S. offshore wind is about to soar according to industry outlooks. It's a testament to the collaborative effort of policymakers, businesses, and communities working together to tackle the climate crisis. As the turbines continue their majestic rotations, they carry a message of hope, reminding us that a brighter, more sustainable future is within reach, powered by the wind of change.

Additional Considerations:

  • The project boasts a dedicated Fisheries Innovation Fund, fostering collaboration between the fishing and offshore wind industries to ensure sustainable coexistence.
  • Vineyard Wind has invested in education and training programs, preparing local residents for careers in the burgeoning wind energy sector.
  • The project's success opens doors for further offshore wind development in the U.S., such as Long Island proposals gaining attention, paving the way for a clean energy revolution.

 

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