Ottawa to release promised EV sales regulations

U.S. Renewable Energy Forecast 2024 will see wind and solar power surpass one-fourth of electricity generation, EIA projects, as coal declines, natural gas dips, and clean energy capacity, grid integration, and policy incentives expand.

Key Points

EIA outlook: renewables at 26% of U.S. power in 2024, led by wind and solar as coal declines and gas share dips.

✅ Wind and solar hit 18% combined, surpassing coal's 17%.

✅ Natural gas dips to 37% as demand rebounds modestly.

✅ Coal plant closures accelerate amid costs, emissions, and age.

Renewable energy is poised to reach a milestone, after a record 28% in April this year, as a new government report projects that wind, solar and other renewable sources will exceed one-fourth of the country’s electricity generation for the first time, in 2024.

This is one of the many takeaways from the federal government’s Short Term Energy Outlook, a monthly report whose new edition is the first to include a forecast for 2024. The report’s authors in the Energy Information Administration are expecting renewables to increase in market share, while natural gas and coal would both decrease.

From 2023 to 2024, renewables would rise from 24 percent to 26 percent of U.S. electricity generation; coal’s share would drop from 18 percent to 17 percent; gas would remain the leader but drop from 38 percent to 37 percent; and nuclear would be unchanged at 19 percent.

It was a big deal in 2020 when generation from renewables passed coal for the first time in 130 years over a full year. Coal made a comeback in 2021 and then retreated again in 2022 as renewables surpassed coal in generation. The ups and downs were largely the result of fluctuations in electricity demand during and then after the Covid-19 pandemic.

The new report indicates that coal doesn’t have another comeback in the works. This fuel, which was the country’s leading electricity source less than a decade ago, is declining as many coal-fired power plants are old and economically uncompetitive. Coal plants continue to close, and developers aren’t building new ones because of concerns about high costs and emissions, a trend underscored when renewables became the second-most prevalent source in 2020 across the U.S.

The growth in renewable energy is coming from wind and solar power, with wind responsible for about one-third of the growth and solar accounting for two-thirds, the report says, and combined output from wind and solar has already exceeded nuclear for the first time in the U.S. Other renewable sources, like hydropower and biomass, would be flat.

In fact, the growth of wind and solar is projected to be so swift that the combination of just those two sources would be 18 percent of the U.S. total by 2024, which would surpass coal’s 17 percent.

A key variable is overall electricity consumption. EIA is projecting that this will fall 1 percent in 2023 compared to 2022, due a mild summer. Then, consumption will increase 1 percent in 2024.

If demand was rising more, then natural gas power would likely gain market share because of gas power plants’ ability to vary their output as needed to respond to changes in demand.

I asked Eric Gimon, a senior fellow at the think tank Energy Innovation, what he thinks of these latest numbers.

He said wind and solar have gotten so big that it almost makes sense to track them as their own categories as opposed to lumping them into the larger category of renewables. He expects that the government will do this sometime soon.

Also, he thinks the projected increases for wind and solar, while substantial, are still smaller than those resources are likely to grow.

“My experience over the last 10 years is that the EIA tends to have flattish forecasts,” he said, meaning the federal office has underestimated the actual growth.

Some energy analysts have criticized EIA for being slow to recognize the growth of renewables. But much of the criticism is about the Annual Energy Outlook, which has numbers going out to mid-century, even as the U.S. is moving toward 30% from wind and solar by the end of the decade. The Short Term Energy Outlook, with numbers going one year into the future, has been more reliable.

Gimon said EIA is “kind of like your conservative uncle” in its forecasts, so it’s notable that the office expects to see a significant uptick in wind and solar.

Even so, he thinks the latest Short Term Energy Outlook should be read as the lower end of the range of potential increase for wind and solar.

For him to be right, the wind and solar industries will need to figure out solutions to the challenges they’ve been having in obtaining parts; they will need to make progress in dealing with local opposition to many projects and in having enough interstate power lines to deliver the electricity. And, new policies like the Inflation Reduction Act will need to have their desired effect of encouraging projects through the use of tax incentives.

It’s not much of a stretch to imagine that clean energy industries will make some progress on all of those fronts.

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Canada’s clean energy sector is expanding as Indigenous communities lead electricity transmission projects, drive sustainable growth, and strengthen energy independence through renewable power, community ownership, and grid connections across remote and regional areas of Canada.

What is Canada’s Clean Energy Sector?

Canada’s clean energy sector encompasses industries and initiatives that generate, transmit, and manage low-carbon electricity to meet the country's national climate goals. It emphasizes Indigenous participation, renewable innovation, and equitable economic growth.

✅ Expands renewable electricity generation and transmission

✅ Builds Indigenous-led ownership and partnerships

✅ Reduces emissions through sustainable energy transition

Canada’s clean energy sector is entering a pivotal era of transformation, with Indigenous communities emerging as leading partners in expanding electricity transmission and renewable infrastructure, including grid modernization projects that are underway nationwide. These communities are not only driving projects that connect remote regions to the grid but also redefining what energy leadership and equity look like in Canada.

At a recent webinar co-hosted by the Canadian Climate Institute and the Indigenous Power Coalition, panellists discussed the growing wave of Indigenous-led electricity transmission projects and the policies needed to strengthen Indigenous participation. The event, moderated by Frank Busch, featured Margaret Kenequanash, CEO of Wataynikaneyap Power; Kahsennenhawe Sky-Deer, Grand Chief of the Mohawk Council of Kahnawà:ke; and Blaise Fontaine, Co-Founder of ProACTIVE Planning Inc. and Indigenous Power Coalition.

The discussion comes at a crucial moment for Canada’s clean energy transition. As the country races to meet its climate commitments and zero-emissions electricity by 2035 targets, demand for clean power is rising rapidly. Historically, energy development in Canada occurred on Indigenous lands without consent or fair participation, but today, Indigenous communities collectively represent the largest clean energy asset owners outside Crown and private utilities.

“There is a genuine appetite for Indigenous communities to not just own transmission projects but to also lead,” said Fontaine. He noted that Indigenous communities are increasingly setting the terms of engagement, selecting partners, and shaping projects in line with their cultural and environmental values.

One of the strongest examples of this transformation is the Wataynikaneyap (Watay) Power Project in northern Ontario, a 1,800-kilometre transmission line connecting 17 remote First Nations communities to the provincial grid. “Communities must fully understand what they are getting into, since it is their homelands that will be impacted,” said Kenequanash. She emphasized that the project’s success came from five years of inter-community meetings to agree on shared principles before any external engagement.

The panel also highlighted the Hertel–New York Interconnection Line, co-owned by Hydro-Québec and the Mohawk Council of Kahnawà:ke, as another milestone in Indigenous energy leadership. Sky-Deer noted that the project’s co-ownership model required Quebec’s National Assembly to pass Bill 13, a first-of-its-kind legal framework. “That was a breakthrough,” she said, “but it also shows that true partnership still depends on one-off exceptions rather than standard policy.”

Panellists agreed that Canada’s regulatory systems have not kept pace with Indigenous leadership. Fontaine called on governments to “think outside the box to avoid staying stuck in the status quo,” emphasizing the need for enabling policies that align with an electric, connected and clean vision for Canada while making Indigenous-led ownership the norm rather than the exception.

Financial readiness is another key factor driving Indigenous participation. Communities are now accessing capital through partnerships with financial institutions and government loan programs, and growing evidence that a 2035 zero-emissions grid is practical and profitable is strengthening investor confidence. The collaboration between the Mohawk Council of Kahnawà:ke and the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec exemplifies tailored financing and long-term investment that supports community ownership and sustainable growth.

True equity, however, goes beyond financial participation. “It’s not just about having a percentage stake,” Fontaine explained. “True equity means meaningful decision-making power and control.” Indigenous leaders are insisting on co-governance structures that align with their worldviews, prioritizing environmental protection, cultural respect, and intergenerational stewardship.

The benefits of this approach extend far beyond project economics. Communities involved in ownership experience tangible local benefits, including employment and training opportunities, as well as new investments in education and culture. Hydro-Québec’s $10 million contribution to the Kahnawà:ke Cultural Arts Center is one example of how partnerships can support cultural renewal and community development.

As Canada looks to build east–west electricity interties and expand renewable energy generation, including solar where Canada has lagged in deployment nationwide, Indigenous leadership is becoming increasingly central to national energy policy. Fontaine noted that this shift offers “even greater opportunities for Indigenous-led transmission as Canada connects its provinces rather than just exporting power south.”

In particular, Alberta's energy profile highlights both rapid growth in renewables and ongoing fossil fuel strength, informing intertie planning and market design.

On the National Truth and Reconciliation Day, panellists urged reflection on both the barriers that remain and the opportunities ahead. Indigenous leadership in Canada’s clean energy sector is proving that reconciliation can take tangible form, through ownership, partnership, and shared prosperity.

This transformation represents more than an energy transition; it’s a rebalancing of power, respect, and responsibility, carried out “in a good way,” as the panellists emphasized, and essential to building a clean, inclusive energy future for all Canadians while strengthening the global electricity market position of the country.

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Bimbo Canada VPPAs secure renewable electricity from RES wind and solar projects in Alberta, totaling 170MW, via 15-year contracts to offset consumption, advance RE100 goals, and drive decarbonization across bakeries, depots, and distribution centers.

Key Points

Virtual power purchase agreements sourcing wind and solar to offset Bimbo Canadas electricity and support RE100.

✅ 15-year RES contracts for Alberta wind and solar capacity

✅ Offsets electricity for bakeries, depots, and distribution centers

✅ Advances Grupo Bimbo RE100 target for 100% renewable power

Canada's oldest and largest bakery, Bimbo Canada, has signed two virtual power purchase agreements (VPPAs) with Renewable Energy Systems  (RES) to procure renewable electricity, similar to federal green electricity contracts advancing in Alberta, that will offset 100 per cent of the company's electricity consumption in Canada. The projects are expected to be fully operational by December, 2022.

Canada is the second market, alongside the United States, to enter into VPPAs, where companies like Amazon clean energy projects are expanding rapidly. These agreements, together with additional sustainability initiatives conducted around the world by the parent company Grupo Bimbo, will help the company offset 90 per cent of its global electricity consumption.

"Bimbo Canada is committed to nourishing a better world through productive sustainability practices," said Joe McCarthy, president of Bimbo Canada. "These agreements are the next big step in reducing our environmental footprint, as peers such as Arvato's first solar plant signal industry momentum, and becoming leaders in responsible stewardship of the environment."

The 15-year agreements with RES will support the commercial development of two renewable energy projects in southern Alberta, consisting of wind and solar projects, similar to RBC's solar PPA announced in the region, totaling 170MW of installed capacity. Under these two agreements, Bimbo Canada will procure the benefit of approximately 50MW of renewable electricity to offset electricity consumption for its 16 bakeries, 14 distribution centres and 191 depots. Commercial development for the wind and solar farms will be finalized later this year by RES Canada and the projects are expected to be fully operational by the end of next year.  

"RES is proud that its Alberta wind and solar projects, amid growth such as a $200M Alberta wind farm led by a Buffett-linked firm, are helping Bimbo Canada meet its sustainability initiatives," said Peter Clibbon, RES Senior VP of Development. "It's a win-win situation with our projects delivering competitive wind and solar electricity to Bimbo Canada, and while providing our host communities with long-term tax and landowner income."

In 2018, Grupo Bimbo joined RE100, a global initiative led by The Climate Group and in partnership with Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) and committed to operating with 100 per cent renewable electricity by 2025. As a leading supplier of fresh-baked goods and snacks for Canadian families, these agreements support the company's targets and builds upon many successful past sustainability initiatives, as market activity by Canadian Solar project sales continues nationwide.

"The renewable electricity initiatives in our operations respond to Grupo Bimbo's deep commitment that we have had for many decades globally with the planet and with present and future generations," said Daniel Servitje, global CEO of Grupo Bimbo. "With this announcement, we have achieved another important milestone for the company on our journey towards becoming 100 per cent renewable electricity by 2025."

Last year, Bimbo Canada reduced product waste and exceeded its product waste reduction target by 18 per cent, which saved four million units of products from landfills. The company also eliminated 174 metric tonnes of plastic per year (equal to 43 adult elephants) through several packaging optimization initiatives.

Earlier this year, Bimbo Canada signed the Canada Plastics Pact (CPP) and, amid a broader push for clean energy exemplified by Edmonton rooftop solar installations, earned its first ENERGY STAR certification for its Hamilton, Ontario bakery. The company will continue to work towards other initiatives that fulfill its commitment to be a sustainable, highly productive and deeply humane company.

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EV battery supply strategies weigh in-house cell manufacturing against supplier contracts, optimizing costs, scale, and supply-chain resilience for electric vehicles. Automakers like Tesla, GM-LG Chem, VW-Northvolt, and Ford balance gigafactories, joint ventures, and procurement risks.

Key Points

How automakers secure EV battery cells by balancing cost, scale, tech risk, and supply-chain control to meet demand.

✅ In-source cells via gigafactories, JVs, and proprietary chemistries

✅ Contract with LG Chem, Panasonic, CATL, SKI to diversify supply

✅ Manage costs, logistics, IP, and technology obsolescence risks

Auto makers, pumping billions of dollars into developing electric cars, are now facing a critical inflection point as they decide whether to get more involved with manufacturing the core batteries or buy them from others.

Batteries are one of an electric vehicle’s most expensive components, accounting for between a quarter and a third of the car’s value. Driving down their cost is key to profitability, executives say.

But whereas the internal combustion engine traditionally has been engineered and built by auto makers themselves, battery production for electric cars is dominated by Asian electronics and chemical firms, such as LG Chem Ltd. and Panasonic Corp. , and newcomers like China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.

California, the U.S.’s largest car market, said last month it would end the sale of new gasoline- and diesel-powered passenger cars by 2035, putting pressure on the auto industry to accelerate its shift to electric vehicles in the coming years.

The race to lock in supplies for electric cars has auto makers taking varied paths, with growing Canada-U.S. collaboration across supply chains.

While most make the battery pack, a large metal enclosure often lining the bottom of the car, they also need the cells that are bundled together to form the core electricity storage.

Tesla several years ago opened its Gigafactory in Nevada to make batteries with Panasonic, which in the shared space would produce cells for the packs. The electric-car maker wanted to secure production specifically for its own models and lower manufacturing and logistics costs.

Now it is looking to in-source more of that production.

While Tesla will continue to buy cells from Panasonic and other suppliers, it is also working on its own cell technology and production capabilities, aiming for cheaper, more powerful batteries to ensure it can keep up with demand for its cars, said Chief Executive Elon Musk last month.

Following Tesla’s lead, General Motors Co. and South Korea’s LG Chem are putting $2.3 billion into a nearly 3-million-square-foot factory in Lordstown, Ohio, highlighting opportunities for Canada to capitalize on the U.S. EV pivot as supply chains evolve, which GM says will eventually produce enough battery cells to outfit hundreds of thousands of cars each year.

In Europe, Volkswagen AG is taking a similar path, investing about $1 billion in Swedish battery startup Northvolt AB, including some funding to build a cell-manufacturing plant in Salzgitter, Germany, as part of a joint venture, and in North America, EV assembly deals in Canada are putting it in the race as well.

Others like Ford Motor Co. and Daimler AG are steering clear of manufacturing their own cells, with executives saying they prefer contracting with specialized battery makers.

Supply-chain disruptions, including lithium shortages, have already challenged some new model launches and put projects at risk, auto makers say.

For instance, Ford and VW have agreements in place with SK Innovation to supply battery cells for future electric-vehicle models. The South Korean company is building a factory in Georgia to help meet this demand, but a fight over trade secrets has put the plant’s future in jeopardy and could disrupt new model launches, both auto makers have said in legal filings.

GM executives say the risk of relying on suppliers has pushed them to produce their own battery cells, albeit with LG Chem.

“We’ve got to be able to control our own destiny,” said Ken Morris, GM’s vice president of electric vehicles.

Bringing the manufacturing in house will give the company more control over the raw materials it purchases and the battery-cell chemistry, Mr. Morris said.

But establishing production, even in a joint venture, is a costly proposition, and it won’t necessarily ensure a timely supply of cells. There are also risks with making big investments on one battery technology because a breakthrough could make it obsolete.

Ford cites those factors in deciding against a similar investment for now.

The company sees the industry’s conventional model of contracting with independent suppliers to build parts as better suited to its battery-cell needs, Ford executive Hau Thai-Tang told analysts in August.

“We have the competitive tension with dealing with multiple suppliers, which allows us to drive the cost down,” Mr. Thai-Tang said, adding that the company expects to pay prices for cells in line with GM and Tesla.

Meanwhile, Ford can leave the capital-intensive task of conducting the research and setting up manufacturing facilities to the battery companies, Mr. Thai-Tang said.

Germany’s Daimler has tried both strategies.

The car company made its own lithium-ion cells through a subsidiary until 2015. But the capital required to scale up was better spent elsewhere, said Ola Källenius, Daimler’s chief executive officer.

The auto maker instead signed long-term supply agreements with Asian companies like Chinese battery-maker CATL and Farasis Energy (Ganzhou) Co., which Daimler invested in last year.

The company has said it is spending roughly $23.6 billion on purchase agreements but keeping its battery research in-house.

“Let’s rather put that capital into what we do best, cars,” Mr. Källenius said.

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The Netherlands grid crisis exposes how rapid renewable energy growth is straining transmission capacity. Solar, wind, and electric vehicle demand are overloading networks, forcing officials to urge reduced peak-time power use and accelerate national grid modernization plans.

Main Points

The Netherlands grid crisis refers to national electricity congestion caused by surging renewable energy generation and rising consumer demand.

✅ Grid congestion from rapid solar and wind expansion

✅ Strained transmission and distribution capacity

✅ National investment in smart grid upgrades

The Dutch government is urging households to reduce electricity consumption between 16:00 and 21:00 — a signal that the country’s once-stable power grid is under serious stress. The call comes amid an accelerating shift to wind and solar power that is overwhelming transmission infrastructure and creating “grid congestion” across regions, as seen in Nordic grid constraints this year.

In a government television campaign, a narrator warns: “When everyone uses electricity at the same time, our power grid can become overloaded. That could lead to failures — so please try to use less electricity between 4 pm and 9 pm.” The plea reflects a system where supply occasionally outpaces the grid’s ability to distribute it, with some regions abroad issuing summer blackout warnings already.

According to Dutch energy firm Eneco’s CEO, Kys-Jan Lamo, the root of the problem lies in the mismatch between modern renewable generation and a grid built for centralized fossil fuel plants. He notes that 70% of Eneco’s output already comes from solar and wind, and this “grid congestion is like traffic on the power lines.” Lamo explains:

“The grid congestion is caused by too much demand in some areas of the network, or by too much supply being pushed into the grid beyond what the network can carry.”

He adds that many of the transmission lines in residential areas are narrow — a legacy of when fewer and larger power plants fed electricity through major feeder lines, underscoring grid vulnerabilities seen elsewhere today. Under the new model, renewable generation occurs everywhere: “This means that electricity is now fed into the grid even in peripheral areas with relatively fine lines — and those lines cannot always cope.”

Experts warn that resolving these issues will demand years of planning and immense investment in smarter grid infrastructure over the coming years. Damien Ernst, an electrical engineering professor at Liège University and respected voice on European grids, states that the Netherlands is experiencing a “grid crisis” brought on by “insufficient investment in distribution and transmission networks.” He emphasizes that the speed of renewable deployment has outpaced the grid’s capacity to absorb it.

Eneco operates a “virtual power plant” control system — described by Lamo as “the brain we run” — that dynamically balances supply and demand. During periods of oversupply, the system can curtail wind turbines or shut down solar panels. Conversely, during peak demand, the system can throttle back electricity provision to participating customers in exchange for lower tariffs. However, these techniques only mitigate strain — they cannot replace the need for physical upgrades or bolster resilience to extreme weather outages alone.

The bottleneck has begun limiting new connections: “Consumers often want to install heat pumps or charge electric vehicles, but they increasingly find it difficult to get the necessary network capacity,” Lamo warns. Businesses too are struggling. “Companies often want to expand operations, but cannot get additional capacity from grid operators. Even new housing developments are affected, since there’s insufficient infrastructure to connect whole communities.”

Currently, thousands of businesses are queuing for network access. TenneT, the national grid operator, estimates that 8,000 firms await initial connection approval, and another 12,000 seek to increase their capacity allocations. Stakeholders warn that unresolved congestion risks choking economic growth.

According to Kys-Jan Lamo: “Looking back, almost all of this could have been prevented.” He acknowledges that post-2015 climate commitments placed heavy emphasis on adding generation and on grid modernization costs more broadly, but “we somewhat underestimated the impact on grid capacity.”

In response, the government has introduced a national “Grid Congestion Action Plan,” aiming to accelerate approvals for infrastructure expansions and to refine regulations to promote smarter grid use. At the same time, feed-in incentives for solar power are being scaled back in some regions, and certain areas may even impose charges to integrate new solar systems into the grid.

The scale of what’s needed is vast. TenneT has proposed adding roughly 100,000 km of new power lines by 2050 and investing in doubling or tripling existing capacity in many areas. However, permit processes can take eight years before construction begins, and many projects require an additional two years to complete. As Lamo points out, “the pace of energy transition far exceeds the grid’s existing capacity — and every new connection request simply extends waiting lists.”

Unless grid expansion keeps up, and as climate pressures intensify, the very clean energy future the Netherlands is striving for may remain constrained by the physics of distribution.

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Canada EV Supply Chain aligns electric vehicle manufacturing, batteries, and autonomous tech with cross-border trade, leveraging lithium, cobalt, and rare earths as GM, Ford, and Project Arrow scale zero-emissions innovation and domestic sourcing.

Key Points

Canada's integrated resources, battery tech, and manufacturing network supporting EV production and cross-border trade.

✅ Leverages lithium, cobalt, and rare earths for battery supply

✅ Integrates GM, Ford, and Project Arrow manufacturing hubs

✅ Aligns with autonomous tech, hydrogen, and zero-emissions goals

The storied North American automotive industry, the ultimate showcase of Canada’s high-tensile trade ties with the United States, is about to navigate a dramatic hairpin turn.

But as the Big Three veer into the all-electric, autonomous era, some Canadians want to seize the moment to capitalize on the U.S. pivot and take the wheel.

“There’s a long shadow between the promise and the execution, but all the pieces are there,” says Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association.

“We went from a marriage on the rocks to one that both partners are committed to. It could be the best second chapter ever.”

Volpe is referring specifically to GM, which announced late last month an ambitious plan to convert its entire portfolio of vehicles to an all-electric platform by 2035, even as a 2035 EV mandate debate unfolds.

But that decision is just part of a market inflection point across the industry, with existential ramifications for one of the most tightly integrated cross-border manufacturing and supply-chain relationships in the world.

China is already working hard to become the “source of a new way” to power vehicles, President Joe Biden warned last week.

“We just have to step up.”

Canada has both the resources and expertise to do the same, says Volpe, whose ambitious Project Arrow concept — a homegrown zero-emissions vehicle named for the 1950s-era Avro interceptor jet — is designed to showcase exactly that.

“We’re going to prove to the market, we’re going to prove to the (manufacturers) around the planet, that everything that goes into your zero-emission vehicle can be made or sourced here in Canada,” he says.

“If somebody wants to bring what we did over the line and make 100,000 of them a year, I’ll hand it to them.”

GM earned the ire of Canadian auto workers in 2018 by announcing the closure of its assembly plant in Oshawa, Ont. It later resurrected the facility with a $170-million investment to retool it for autonomous vehicles.

“It was, ‘You closed Oshawa, how dare you?’ And I was one of the ‘How dare you’ people,” Volpe says.

“Well, now that they’ve reopened Oshawa, you sit there and you open your eyes to the commitment that General Motors made.”

Ford, too, has entered the fray, promising $1.8 billion to retool its sprawling landmark facility in Oakville, Ont., to build EVs, as EV assembly deals help put Canada in the race.

‘Range anxiety’
It’s a leap of faith of sorts, considering what market experts say is ongoing consumer doubt about EVs, including shortages and wait times that persist.

“Range anxiety” — the persistent fear of a depleted battery at the side of the road — remains a major concern, even though it’s less of a problem than most people think.

Consulting firm Deloitte Canada, which has been tracking automotive consumer trends for more than a decade, found three-quarters of future EV buyers it surveyed planned to charge their vehicles at home overnight.

“The difference between what is a perceived issue in a consumer’s mind and what is an actual issue is actually quite negligible,” Ryan Robinson, Deloitte’s automotive research leader, says in an interview.

“It’s still an issue, full stop, and that’s something that the industry is going to have to contend with.”

So, too, is price, especially with the end of the COVID-19 pandemic still a long way off. Deloitte’s latest survey, released last month, found 45 per cent of future buyers in Canada hope to spend less than $35,000 — a tall order when most base electric-vehicle models hover between $40,000 and $45,000.

“You put all of that together and there’s still some major challenges that a lot of stakeholders that touch the automotive industry face,” Robinson says.

“It’s not just government, it’s not just automakers, but there are a variety of stakeholders that have a role to play in making sure that Canadians are ready to make the transition over to electric mobility.”

With protectionism no longer a dirty word in the United States and Biden promising to prioritize American workers and suppliers, the Canadian government’s job remains the same as it ever was: making sure the U.S. understands Canada’s mission-critical role in its own economic priorities.

“We’re both going to be better off on both sides of the border, as we have been in the past, if we orient ourselves toward this global competition as one force,” says Gerald Butts, vice-chairman of the political-risk consultancy Eurasia Group and a former principal secretary to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

“It served us extraordinarily well in the past ... and I have no reason to believe it won’t serve us well in the future.”

EV battery industry
Last month, GM announced a billion-dollar plan to build its new all-electric BrightDrop EV600 van in Ingersoll, Ont., at Canada’s first large-scale EV manufacturing plant for delivery vehicles.

That investment, Volpe says, assumes Canada will take the steps necessary to help build a homegrown battery industry out of the country’s rare-earth resources like lithium and cobalt that are waiting to be extracted in northern Ontario, Quebec and elsewhere, including projects such as a $1.6B battery plant in Niagara that signal momentum.

Given that the EV industry is still in his infancy, the free market alone won’t be enough to ensure those resources can be extracted and developed, he says.

“General Motors made a billion-dollar bet on Canada because it’s going to assume that the Canadian government — this one or the next one — is going to commit” to building that business.

Such an investment would pay dividends well beyond the auto sector, considering the federal Liberal government’s commitment to lowering greenhouse gas-emissions and meeting targets set out in the Paris climate accord.

“If you make investments in renewable energy and energy storage in Ontario using battery technology, you can build an industry at scale that the auto industry can borrow,” Volpe says.

Major manufacturing, retail and office facilities would be able to use that technology to help “shave the peak” off Canada’s GHG emissions and achieve those targets, all the while paving the way for a self-sufficient electric-vehicle industry.

“You’d be investing in the exact same technology you’d use in a car.”

There’s one problem, says Robinson: the lithium-ion batteries on roads right now might not be where the industry ultimately lands.

“We’re not done with with battery technology,” Robinson says. “What you don’t want to do is invest in a technology that is that is rapidly evolving, and could potentially become obsolete going forward.”

Fuel cells — energy-efficient, hydrogen-powered units that work like batteries, but without the need for constant recharging — continue to be part of the conversation, he adds.

“The amount of investment is huge, and you want to be sure that you’re making the right decision, so you don’t find yourself behind the curve just as all that capacity is coming online.”

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