Utilities a boon to First Solar, but is it enough?

By Reuters


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Thin-film solar companies are poised to capture a big share of the U.S. power market as utilities seek renewable energy at the lowest possible cost, but doubts are being raised about whether that is enough to support First Solar Inc's sky-high valuation.

The biggest maker of thin-film products, First Solar has been a Wall Street darling since it went public in 2006 because its cadmium telluride solar cells are far less costly to produce per watt than the silicon-based cells that dominate the market.

Electricity produced from the sun is pricier than that from dirty sources like coal-fired plants, so cost is paramount when choosing among solar suppliers. For that reason, thin-film suppliers are expected to pick up big contracts in states such as California, which is requiring that 20 percent of the state's electricity come from green sources by 2010.

"Thin film is really the leading edge for satisfying demand from the utility market," said Ted Sullivan, senior analyst at market research firm Lux Research. "Utilities are sophisticated buyers. All they care about is the lowest cost."

Thin film's cost advantage over cells made from silicon, along with clean-energy requirements from a growing number of states, have underpinned investor enthusiasm for First Solar.

At the same time, thin-film panels produce less energy than traditional photovoltaic technology. That makes them better for big installations in the desert, where there is ample space, and less attractive in small areas like residential rooftops.

"The whole market can see a lot of really impressive growth in the long run, but that's not to say thin film will displace everything else," said Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov, who has a "market perform" rating on First Solar. "It's a low-cost product, but it's lower performance."

First Solar shares were 1.6 percent higher on August 12 at $252. They have been largely immune to a sharp sell-off in solar stocks, down just 6 percent this year. That compares with declines of more than 40 percent for leading silicon-based cell makers SunPower Corp. and Q-Cells AG.

First Solar trades at about 36 times analysts' average 2009 earnings estimate, compared with multiples of 21 and 19 for SunPower and Q-Cells, respectively.

"There are high hopes of them launching a business model with electric utilities," said Karina Funk, senior equity analyst with Boston-based Winslow Green Mutual Funds, which owns First Solar shares.

Whether those high hopes will translate into the hefty returns many investors expect is a major question. Last month, First Solar announced two contracts with California utilities Sempra Energy and Edison International unit Southern California Edison, and Funk said some investors had been hoping for further news on the company's utility business strategy during its earnings conference call last month.

First Solar's blow-out quarterly earnings on July 30 prompted many analysts to upgrade the already-richly valued stock to "buy" and assign 12-month price targets of between $350 and $450. At the time, the stock traded at $285.

Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Mehdi Hosseini, who has an "underperform" rating on First Solar, warned that it was still too soon to evaluate opportunities in the U.S. utility market.

"The utility market is a market that could be the gold mine for the solar industry, but we don't know how the subsidies are going to play out," Hosseini said. "There are a number of key questions that nobody has an answer for."

The biggest question, Hosseini said, is whether key U.S. solar energy subsidies that expire at the end of this year will be extended, and if so, how long for. Also, in their current form, the utilities themselves are not able to take advantage of the tax breaks. Instead, they must work with third parties who build the solar power plants and then sell them the power.

"If the subsidy is given to utilities, then all they need is First Solar to come in and sell modules or systems," Hosseini said. "In that process, utilities could potentially put more pressure on First Solar to lower prices."

In addition, investors are mindful that dozens of companies - from established solar players to venture-backed start-ups - are hard at work trying to replicate First Solar's success.

Applied Materials Inc., which was due to report earnings on Tuesday, is selling thin-film production lines for customers including Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd., while big names like Sharp Corp. and General Electric Co. are also cultivating thin-film businesses. Energy Conversion Devices Inc. is the only other large public thin-film company - and its technology, based on amorphous silicon, is different from First Solar's.

"It does have a scarcity premium in the valuation," Molchanov said of First Solar. "And yes, it does deserve to trade at a higher multiple, but obviously it's debatable whether those types of valuations are sustainable forever."

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Energy freedom and solar’s strategy for the South

South Carolina Energy Freedom Act lifts net metering caps, reforms PURPA, and overhauls utility planning to boost solar competition, grid resiliency, and consumer choice across the Southeast amid Santee Cooper debt and utility monopoly pressure.

 

Key Points

A bipartisan reform lifting net metering caps, modernizing PURPA, and updating utility planning to expand solar.

✅ Lifts net metering cap to accelerate rooftop and community solar.

✅ Reforms PURPA contracts to enable fair pricing and transparent procurement.

✅ Modernizes utility IRP and opens markets to competition and customer choice.

 

The South Carolina House has approved the latest version of the Energy Freedom Act, a bill that overhauls the state’s electricity policies, including lifting the net metering caps and reforming PURPA implementation and utility planning processes in a way that advocates say levels the playing field for solar at all scales.

With Governor Henry McMaster (R) expected to sign the bill shortly, this is a major coup not just for solar in the state, but the region. This is particularly notable given the struggle that solar has had just to gain footing in many parts of the South, which is dominated by powerful utility monopolies and conservative politicians.

Two days ago when the bill passed the Senate we covered the details of the policy, but today we’re going to take a look at the politics of getting the Energy Freedom Act passed, and what this means for other Southern states and “red” states.

 

Opportunity amid crisis

The first thing to note about this bill is that it comes within a crisis in South Carolina’s electricity sector. This was the first legislative session following state-run utility Santee Cooper’s formal abandonment of a project to build two new reactors at the Virgil C. Sumner nuclear power plant, on which work stopped nearly two years ago.

Santee Cooper still holds $4 billion in construction debt related to the nuclear projects. According to an article in The State, this is costing its customers $5 per month toward the current debt, and this will rise to $13 per month for the next 40 years.

Such costs are particularly unwelcome in South Carolina, which has the highest annual electricity bills in the nation due to a combination of very high electricity usage driven by widespread air conditioning during the hot summers and higher prices per unit of power than other Southern states.

Following this fiasco, Santee Cooper’s CEO has stepped down, and the state government is currently considering selling the utility to a private entity. According to Maggie Clark, southeast state affairs senior manager for Solar Energy Industries Association, all of this set the stage for the bill that passed today.

“South Carolina is in a really ripe state for transformational energy policy in the wake of the VC Sumner nuclear plant cancellation,” Clark told pv magazine. “They were looking for a way forward, and I think this bill really provided them something to champion.”

 

Renewable energy policy for red states

This major win for solar policy comes in a state where the Republican Party holds majorities in both houses of the state’s legislature and sends bills to a Republican governor.

Broadly speaking, Republican politicians seldom show the level of interest in supporting renewable energy that Democrats do either at the state or national level, and show even less inclination to act to address greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, the 100% clean energy mandates that are being implemented in four states and Washington D.C. have only passed with Democratic trifectas, in other words with Republicans controlling neither house of the state legislature nor the governor’s office. (Note: This does not apply to Puerto Rico, which has a different party structure to the rest of the United States)

However, South Carolina shows there are Republican politicians who will support pro-renewable energy policies, and circumstances under which Republican majorities will vote for legislation that aids the adoption of solar. And these specific circumstances speak to both different priorities and ideological differences between the two parties.

SEIA’s Maggie Clark emphasizes that the Energy Freedom Act was about reforming market rules. “This was a way to provide a program that did not provide subsidies or incentives in any way, but to really open the market to competition,” explains Clark. “I think that appealing to conservatives in the South about energy independence and resiliency and ultimately cost savings is the winning message on this issue.”

Such messaging in South Carolina is not an accident. Not only has such messaging been successful in the past, but coalition partner Vote Solar paid for polling to find what messages resounded with the state’s voters, and found that choice and competition were likely to resound.

And all of this happened in the context of what Clark describes as an “extremely well-resourced effort”, with SEIA in particular dedicating national attention and resources to the state – as part of an effort by President and CEO Abigail Hopper to shift attention more towards state-level policy. Maggie Clark is one of two new regional staff who Hopper has hired, and SEIA’s first staff member focused on Southern states.

“Absolutely the South is a prioritized region,” Hopper told pv magazine, noting that three Southern states – the Carolinas and Florida – are among the 12 states that the organization has identified to work on this year. “It became clear that as a region it needed more attention.”

SEIA is not expecting fly-by-night victories, and Hopper attributes the success in South Carolina not only to a broad coalition, but to years of work on the ground in the state.

Nor is SEIA the only organization to grow its presence in the region. Vote Solar now has two full time staff located in the South, whereas two years ago its sole staff member dedicated to the region was located in Washington D.C.

 

Ideology versus reality in the South

The Energy Freedom Act aligns with conservative ideas about small government and competition, but the American right is not monolithic, nor do political ideas and actions always line up neatly, as other successful policies in other states in the region show

By far the largest deployment of renewable energy in the nation has been in Texas, aside from in California which leads overall. Here a system of renewable energy zones in the sparsely populated but windy and sunny west, north and center of the state feed cities to the east with power from wind and more recently solar.

This was enabled by transmission lines whose cost was socialized among the state’s ratepayers – a tremendous irony given that the state’s politicians would be some of the last in the nation to want to be identified with socializing anything.

Another example is Louisiana, which saw a healthy residential solar market over the last decade due to a 50% state rebate. The policy has expired, but when operating it was exactly the sort of outright subsidy that right-wing media and politicians rail against.

Of course there is also North Carolina, which built the 2nd-largest solar market in the nation on the back of successful state-level implementation of PURPA, a federal law. Finally there is Virginia, where large-scale projects are booming following a 2018 law that found that 5 GW of solar is in the public interest.

Furthermore, while conservatives continually expound the virtues of the free market, the reality of the electricity sector in the “deep red” South is anything but that. The region missed out on the wave of deregulation in the 1990s, and remains dominated by monopoly utilities regulated by the state: a union of big business and big government where competition is non-existent.

This has also meant that the solar which has been deployed in the South is mostly not the kind of rooftop solar that many think of as embodying energy independence, but rather large-scale solar built in farms, fields and forests.

 

Where to from here?

With such contradictions between stated ideology and practice, it is less clear what makes for successful renewable energy policy in the South. However, opening up markets appears to be working not only in South Carolina, but also in Florida, where third-party solar companies are making inroads after the state’s voters rejected a well-funded and duplicitous utilities’ campaign to kill distributed solar.

SEIA’s Hopper says that she is “aggressively optimistic” about solar in Florida. As utilities have dominated large-solar deployment in the state, even as the state declined federal solar incentives earlier this year, she says that she sees opening up the state’s booming utility-scale solar market to competition as a priority.

Some parts of the region may be harder than others, and it is notable that SEIA has not had as much to say about Alabama, Mississippi or Louisiana, which are largely controlled by utility giants Southern Company and Entergy, or the area under the thumb of the Tennessee Valley Authority, one of the most anti-solar entities in the power sector.

Abby Hopper says ultimately, demand from customers – both individuals and corporations – is the key to transforming policy. “You replicate these victories by customer demand,” Hopper told pv magazine. “That combination of voices from the customer are what’s going to drive change.”

 

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Denmark's climate-friendly electricity record is incinerated

Denmark Renewable Energy Outlook assesses Eurostat ranking, district heating and trash incineration, EV adoption, wind turbine testing expansions, and electrification to cut CO2, aligning policies with EU 2050 climate goals and green electricity usage.

 

Key Points

A brief analysis of Denmark's green power use, electrification, EVs, and policies needed to meet EU 2050 CO2 goals.

✅ Eurostat rank low due to trash incineration in district heating.

✅ EV adoption stalled after tax reinstatement, slowing electrification.

✅ Wind test centers expanded; electrification could cut 95% CO2.

 

Denmark’s low ranking in the latest figures from Eurostat regarding climate-friendly electricity, which places the country in 32nd place out of 40 countries, is partly a result of the country’s reliance on the incineration of trash to warm our homes via long-established district heating systems.

Additionally, there are not enough electric vehicles – a recent increase in sales was halted in 2016 when the government started to phase back registration taxes scrapped in 2008, and Europe’s EV slump underscores how fragile momentum can be.

 

Not enough green electricity being used

Denmark is good at producing green electricity, reports Politiken, but it does not use enough, and amid electricity price volatility in Europe this is bad news if it wants to fulfil the EU’s 2050 goal to eliminate CO2 emissions.

 

A recent report by Eurelectric and McKinsey demonstrates that if heating, transport and industry were electrified, reflecting a broader European push for electrification across the energy system, 95 percent of the country’s CO2 emissions could be eliminated by that date.

 

Wind turbine testing centre expansion approved

Parliament has approved the expansion of two wind turbine centres in northwest Jutland, supporting integration as e-mobility drives electricity demand in the coming years. The centres in Østerild and Høvsøre will have the capacity to test nine and seven turbines, measuring 330 and 200 metres in size (up from 250 and 165) respectively. The Østerild expansion should be completed in 2019, while Høvsøre ​​will have to wait a little longer.

 

Third on the Environmental Performance Index

Denmark finished third on the latest Environmental Performance Index, finishing only behind Switzerland and France. Its best category ranking was third for Environmental Health, and comparative energy efficiency benchmarking can help contextualize progress. Elsewhere, it ranked 11th for Ecosystem Vitality, 18th for Biodiversity and Habitat, 94th for Forests, 87th for Fisheries, 25th for Climate and Energy and 37th for Air Pollution, 14th for Water Resources and 7th for Agriculture.

 

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Amazon launches new clean energy projects in US, UK

Amazon Renewable Energy Projects advance net zero goals with a Scotland wind farm PPA and US solar farms in North Carolina and Virginia, delivering clean power, added capacity, and lower carbon emissions across cloud operations.

 

Key Points

Amazon initiatives adding wind and solar capacity in the UK and US to cut carbon and power cloud operations.

✅ Largest UK corporate wind PPA on Scotland Kintyre Peninsula

✅ Two US solar farms in North Carolina and Virginia

✅ 265 MW added capacity, 668,997 MWh clean power annually

 

Amazon is launching three renewable energy projects in the United States and the United Kingdom that support Amazon’s commitment to using net zero carbon energy by 2040.

The U.K. project is a wind farm on the Kintyre Peninsula in Scotland, aligned with a 10 GW renewables contract boosting the U.K. grid. It will generate 168,000 megawatt hours (MWh) of clean energy each year, enough to power 46,000 U.K. homes. It will be the largest corporate wind power purchase agreement (PPA) in the U.K.

Offshore wind energy in the UK is powering up rapidly, complementing onshore developments.

The other two are solar projects – one in Warren County, N.C, and the other in Prince George County, Va, reflecting broader US solar and wind growth trends nationwide. Together, they are expected to generate 500,997 MWh of energy annually. It is Amazon’s second renewable energy project in North Carolina, following the Amazon Wind Farm US East operated by Avangrid Renewables, and eighth in Virginia.

The three new Amazon wind and solar projects – which are expected to be in operation in 2012 — will provide 265 MW of additional renewable capacity, and align with U.K. wind power lessons for the U.S. market nationwide.

“In addition to the environmental benefits inherently associated with running applications in the cloud, Amazon is committed to minimizing our carbon emissions and reaching 80% renewable energy use across the company by 2024. We’ve announced eight projects this year and have more projects on the horizon – and we’re committed to investing in renewable energy as a critical step toward addressing our carbon footprint globally,” Kara Hurst, director of sustainability at Amazon, said. “With nearly 70 renewable energy projects around the globe – including 54 solar rooftops – we are making significant progress towards reaching Amazon’s company-wide commitment to reach 100% renewable energy by 2030.”

Amazon has launched 18 utility-scale wind and solar renewable energy projects to date, and in parallel, Duke Energy Renewables has acquired three California solar projects, underscoring sector momentum. They will generate over 1,600 MW of renewable capacity and deliver more than 4.6 million MWh of clean energy annually. Amazon has also installed more than 50 solar rooftops on fulfillment centers and sort centers around the world. They generate 98 MW of renewable capacity and deliver 130,000 MWh of clean energy annually.

“Today’s announcement by Amazon is another important step for North Carolina’s clean energy plan that will increase our reliance on renewables and reduce our greenhouse gas emissions,” North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper said. “Not only is this the right thing to do for our planet, it’s the right thing to do for our economy. More clean energy jobs means better jobs for North Carolina families.”

Amazon reports on its sustainability commitments, initiatives, and performance on a new web site the company recently launched. It includes information on Amazon’s carbon footprint and other metrics and updates the company’s progress towards reaching The Climate Pledge. 

“It’s wonderful to see the announcement of these new projects, helping bring more clean energy to the Commonwealth of Virginia where Amazon is already recognized as a leader in bringing renewable energy projects online,” Virginia Governor Ralph Northam said. “These solar farms help reaffirm the Commonwealth’s role as a leading producer of clean energy in the U.S., helping take the nation forward in responding to climate change.”

 

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Maryland’s renewable energy facilities break pollution rules, say groups calling for enforcement

Maryland Renewable Energy Violations highlight RPS compliance gaps as facilities selling renewable energy certificates, including waste-to-energy, biomass, and paper mills, face emissions and permit issues, prompting PSC and Attorney General scrutiny of environmental standards.

 

Key Points

Alleged RPS noncompliance by REC-eligible plants, prompting PSC review and potential decertification under Maryland law.

✅ Complaint targets waste-to-energy, biomass plants, and paper mills

✅ Facilities risk loss of REC certification for environmental violations

✅ PSC may investigate nonreporting; AG reviewing evidence

 

Many facilities that supply Maryland with renewable energy have exceeded pollution limits or otherwise broken environmental rules, violating a state law, according to a complaint sent by environmental groups to state energy and law enforcement officials.

Maryland law says that any company that contributes to a state renewable energy goal — half the state’s energy portfolio must come from renewable sources by 2030 — must “substantially comply” with rules on air and water quality and waste management. The complaint says more than two dozen power generators, including paper mills and trash incinerators, have records of formal or informal enforcement actions by environmental authorities.

For years, environmental groups have criticized Maryland policy that counts power plants that produce planet-warming carbon dioxide and health-threatening pollution as “renewable” energy generation, and similar tensions have emerged in California’s reliance on fossil fuels despite ambitious targets, but lawmakers concerned about protecting industrial jobs have resisted reforms. The renewable label qualifies the companies for subsidies drawn from energy bills across the state.

In a complaint filed this week, the groups asked the attorney general and Public Service Commission to step in.

“We’re subsidizing companies to produce dirty energy, but we’re also using ratepayer money to support companies that in many instances are paying environmental fines or just flouting the law,” said Timothy Whitehouse, executive director of Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility. “There’s no one to hold them to account in Maryland.”

A spokeswoman for Attorney General Brian Frosh said his office would review the complaint, which was signed by Whitehouse and Mike Ewall, executive director of the Energy Justice Network.

Public Service Commission officials said the facilities must notify them if found out of compliance with environmental rules, while at the federal level FERC action on aggregated DERs is shaping market participation, and the commission can then revoke certification under the state renewable energy program. In a statement, commission officials said they would launch an investigation if any facility had failed to notify them of any environmental violations, and encouraged anyone with evidence of such a transgression to file a complaint.

Companies named in the document accused the groups of painting an inaccurate picture.

“This complaint is based on misleading arguments designed to halt waste-to-energy practices that have clear environmental benefits recognized by the global scientific community,” said Jim Connolly, vice president of environment, health and safety for Wheelabrator, which owns a Baltimore trash incinerator.

Maryland launched its renewable energy program in 2004, diversifying the state’s energy portfolio with more environmentally friendly sources of power, even as regional debates over a Maine-Québec transmission line highlight cross-border impacts. Under the program, separate from the electricity they generate and sell to the grid, renewable power facilities can sell what are known as renewable energy certificates. Utilities such as Baltimore Gas and Electric Co. are required to buy a growing number of the certificates each year, essentially subsidizing the renewable energy facilities with money from ratepayer bills.

A dozen types of power generation qualify to sell the certificates: Solar, wind, geothermal and hydroelectric plants, as well as “biomass” facilities that burn wood and other organic matter, waste-to-energy plants that burn household trash and paper mills that burn a byproduct known as black liquor.

The complaint focuses on waste incinerators, biomass plants and paper mills, all of which environmental groups have cast as counter to the renewable energy program’s environmental goals, even as ACORE criticized a coal and nuclear subsidy proposal in federal proceedings.

“By subsidizing these corporations, Maryland is diverting the hard-earned income of Maryland ratepayers to wealthy corporations with poor environmental compliance records and undermining the state’s transition to clean renewable energy,” Whitehouse and Ewall wrote.

For example, they note that the Wheelabrator plant in Southwest Baltimore has been fined for exceeding mercury limits in the past. That occurred in 2011, when the plant settled with state regulators for violations in 2010 and 2009.

Connolly said there is “no question” the facility complies with Maryland’s renewable energy law.

Incinerators in Montgomery County and in Fairfax County, Virginia, that are owned by Covanta and sell the energy certificates in Maryland have been cited for accidental fires inside both facilities. The Maryland incinerator violated emissions rules in 2014, the same year that New Jersey forbade the Virginia facility from selling energy certificates into that state’s renewable energy program over concerns it wasn’t following ash testing regulations.

James Regan, a spokesman for Covanta, said both facilities “have excellent compliance records and they operate well below their permitted limits.” He said the Virginia facility is complying with ash testing requirements, and that both facilities emit far lower levels of pollutants such as particulate matter than vehicles do.

“It’s clear to us there’s a lot of misleading and wrong information in this document," Regan said.

The Environmental Protection Agency endorsed waste-to-energy facilities under former President Barack Obama because, while burning household trash emits carbon dioxide, scientists said that still had a smaller impact on global warming than sending trash to landfills, even as industry groups have backed the EPA in a legal challenge to the ACE rule as regulatory approaches shifted.

Environmentalists and community groups say the facilities still are harmful because they emit high levels of pollutants such as mercury, nitrogen oxides and lead. The concerns prompted Baltimore City Council to pass an ordinance in February that tightened emissions limits on the Wheelabrator facility, even as the new EPA pollution limits for coal and gas plants are being proposed, so dramatically that the company said it would no longer be able to operate once the rules go into effect in 2022.

The complaint does not mention the century-old Luke paper mill in Western Maryland that long faced criticism for its participation in the renewable energy program, but which owner Verso Co. closed this year.

It does say several of paper company WestRock’s mills in North Carolina and Virginia have faced both formal and informal EPA enforcement actions for violation of the Clean Water Act, including evolving EPA wastewater limits for power plants and other facilities, and the Clean Air Act. A WestRock spokesperson could not be reached for comment.

The complaint also says a large biomass facility in South Boston, Virginia, owned by the Northern Virginia Electric Cooperative has a record of noncompliance with the Clean Air Act over three years.

John Rainey, the plant’s operations director, said it “experienced some small exceedances to its permit limits,” but that it addressed the issues with Virginia environmental officials and has installed new technology.

All those plants have sold credits in Maryland.

Whitehouse said the environmental groups’ goal is to clean up Maryland’s renewable energy program. They did not file a lawsuit because he said there was no clear cause of action to take the state to court, but said he hopes the complaint nonetheless spurs action.

“It’s not acceptable in a clean energy program that we’re subsidizing some of the most dirty sources of energy,” he said. “Those sources aren’t even in compliance with the law, and no one seems to care.”

 

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As New Zealand gets serious about climate change, can electricity replace fossil fuels in time?

New Zealand Energy Transition will electrify transport and industry with renewables, grid-scale solar, wind farms, geothermal, batteries, demand response, pumped hydro, and transmission upgrades to manage dry-year risk and winter peak loads.

 

Key Points

A shift to renewables and smart demand to decarbonise transport and industry while ensuring reliable, affordable power.

✅ Electrifies transport and industrial heat with renewables

✅ Uses demand response, batteries, and pumped hydro for resilience

✅ Targets 99%+ renewable supply, managing dry-year and peak loads

 

As fossil fuels are phased out over the coming decades, the Climate Change Commission (CCC) suggests electricity will take up much of the slack, aligning with the vision of a sustainable electric planet powering our vehicle fleet and replacing coal and gas in industrial processes.

But can the electricity system really provide for this increased load where and when it is needed? The answer is “yes”, with some caveats.

Our research examines climate change impacts on the New Zealand energy system. It shows we’ll need to pay close attention to demand as well as supply. And we’ll have to factor in the impacts of climate change when we plan for growth in the energy sector.

 

Demand for electricity to grow
While electricity use has not increased in NZ in the past decade, many agencies project steeply rising demand in coming years. This is partly due to both increasing population and gross domestic product, but mostly due to the anticipated electrification of transport and industry, which could result in a doubling of demand by mid-century.

It’s hard to get a sense of the scale of the new generation required, but if wind was the sole technology employed to meet demand by 2050, between 10 and 60 new wind farms would be needed nationwide.

Of course, we won’t only build wind farms, as renewables are coming on strong and grid-scale solar, rooftop solar, new geothermal, some new small hydro plant and possibly tidal and wave power will all have a part to play.

 

Managing the demand
As well as providing more electricity supply, demand management and batteries will also be important. Our modelling shows peak demand (which usually occurs when everyone turns on their heaters and ovens at 6pm in winter) could be up to 40% higher by 2050 than it is now.

But meeting this daily period of high demand could see expensive plant sitting idle for much of the time (with the last 25% of generation capacity only used about 10% of the time).

This is particularly a problem in a renewable electricity system when the hydro lakes are dry, as hydro is one of the few renewable electricity sources that can be stored during the day (as water behind the dam) and used over the evening peak (by generating with that stored water).

Demand response will therefore be needed. For example, this might involve an industrial plant turning off when there is too much load on the electricity grid.

 

But by 2050, a significant number of households will also need smart appliances and meters that automatically use cheaper electricity at non-peak times. For example, washing machines and electric car chargers could run automatically at 2am, rather than 6pm when demand is high.

Our modelling shows a well set up demand response system could mitigate dry-year risk (when hydro lakes are low on water) in coming decades, where currently gas and coal generation is often used.

Instead of (or as well as) having demand response and battery systems to combat dry-year risk, a pumped storage system could be built. This is where water is pumped uphill when hydro lake inflows are plentiful, and used to generate electricity during dry periods.

The NZ Battery project is currently considering the potential for this in New Zealand, and debates such as whether we would use Site C's electricity offer relevant lessons.

 

Almost (but not quite) 100% renewable
Dry-year risk would be greatly reduced and there would be “greater greenhouse gas emissions savings” if the Interim Climate Change Committee’s (ICCC) 2019 recommendation to aim for 99% renewable electricity was adopted, rather than aiming for 100%.

A small amount of gas-peaking plant would therefore be retained. The ICCC said going from 99% to 100% renewable electricity by overbuilding would only avoid a very small amount of carbon emissions, at a very high cost.

Our modelling supports this view. The CCC’s draft advice on the issue also makes the point that, although 100% renewable electricity is the “desired end point”, timing is important to enable a smooth transition.

Despite these views, Energy Minister Megan Woods has said the government will be keeping the target of a 100% renewable electricity sector by 2030.

 

Impacts of climate change
In future, the electricity system will have to respond to changing climate patterns as well, becoming resilient to climate risks over time.

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research predicts winds will increase in the South Island and decrease in the far north in coming decades.

Inflows to the biggest hydro lakes will get wetter (more rain in their headwaters), and their seasonality will change due to changes in the amount of snow in these catchments.

Our modelling shows the electricity system can adapt to those changing conditions. One good news story (unless you’re a skier) is that warmer temperatures will mean less snow storage at lower elevations, and therefore higher lake inflows in the big hydro catchments in winter, leading to a better match between times of high electricity demand and higher inflows.

 

The price is right
The modelling also shows the cost of generating electricity is not likely to increase, because the price of building new sources of renewable energy continues to fall globally.

Because the cost of building new renewables is now cheaper than non-renewables (such as coal-fired plants), investing in carbon-free electricity is increasingly compelling, and renewables are more likely to be built to meet new demand in the near term.

While New Zealand’s electricity system can enable the rapid decarbonisation of (at least) our transport and industrial heat sectors, international efforts like cleaning up Canada's electricity underline the need for certainty so the electricity industry can start building to meet demand everywhere.

Bipartisan cooperation at government level will be important to encourage significant investment in generation and transmission projects with long lead times and life expectancies, as analyses of climate policy and grid implications underscore in comparable markets.

Infrastructure and markets are needed to support demand response uptake, as well as certainty around the Tiwai exit in 2024 and whether pumped storage is likely to be built.

Our electricity system can support the rapid decarbonisation needed if New Zealand is to do its fair share globally to tackle climate change.

But sound planning, firm decisions and a supportive and relatively stable regulatory framework are all required before shovels can hit the ground.

 

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India’s Kakrapur 3 achieves criticality

Kakrapar Unit 3 700MWe PHWR achieved first criticality, showcasing indigenously designed nuclear power, NPCIL operations, Make in India manufacturing, advanced safety systems, grid integration, and closed-fuel-cycle strategy for India's expansion of pressurised heavy water reactors.

 

Key Points

India's first indigenous 700MWe PHWR at Kakrapar reached criticality, advancing NPCIL's Make in India nuclear power.

✅ First indigenous 700MWe PHWR achieves criticality

✅ NPCIL-built, Make in India components and contractors

✅ Advanced safety: passive decay heat removal, containment spray

 

Unit 3 of India’s Kakrapar nuclear plant in Gujarat achieved criticality on 22 July, as milestones at nuclear projects worldwide continue to be reached. It is India’s first indigenously designed 700MWe pressurised heavy water reactor (PHWR) to achieve this milestone.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated nuclear scientists, saying the reactor is a shining example of the 'Make in India' campaign and of the government's steps to get nuclear back on track in recent years, and a trailblazer for many such future achievements. 

India developed its own nuclear power generation technology as it faced sanctions from the international community following its first nuclear weapons test in in 1974. It has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while China's nuclear energy development is on a steady track according to experts. India has developed a three-stage nuclear programme based on a closed-fuel cycle, where the used fuel of one stage is reprocessed to produce fuel for the next stage.

Kakrapar 3 was developed and is operated by state-owned Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd (NPCIL), while in Europe KHNP considered for a Bulgarian project as countries weigh options. The first two units are 220MWe PHWRs commissioned in 1993 and 1995. NPCIL said in a statement that the components and equipment for Kakrapur 3 were “manufactured by lndian industries and the construction and erection was undertaken by various lndian contractors”.

The 700MWe PHWRs have advanced safety features such as steel lined inner containment, a passive decay heat removal system, a containment spray system, hydrogen management systems etc, the statement added.

Fuel loading was completed by mid-March, a crucial step in Abu Dhabi during its commissioning as well. “Thereafter, many tests and procedures were carried out during the lockdown period following all COVlD-19 guidelines.”

“As a next step, various experiments / tests will be conducted and power will be increased progressively, a path also followed by Barakah Unit 1 reaching 100% power before commercial operations.” Kakrapur 3 will be connected to the western grid and will be India’s 23rd nuclear power reactor.

Kakrapur 3 “is the front runner in a series of 16 indigenous 700MWe PHWRs which have been accorded administrative approval and financial sanction by the government and are at various stages of implementation”. Five similar units are under construction at Kakarapur 4, Rajasthan 7&8 and Gorakhpur1&2.

DAE said in January 2019 that India planned to put 21 new nuclear units with a combined generating capacity of 15,700MWe into operation by 2031, including ten indigenously designed PHWRs, while Bangladesh develops nuclear power with IAEA assistance. 

 

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