California utilities lead in solar energy

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Southern California Edison is leading the way as utilities become the solar industry's largest customers, according to a report by the Solar Electric Power Association, whose members include solar tech companies and more than 300 utilities.

The utility is ahead of its counterparts in both overall solar energy capacity per megawatt and per customer, the study found (PDF). Further north, Pacific Gas & Electric is in front in terms of overall solar capacity and megawatts per customer.

The nonprofit solar association compiled the rankings from data collected from 50 utilities this spring. It projected growth in U.S. solar electricity, particularly photovoltaics, to expand to 600 megawatts in 2012 from 150 megawatts last year.

Southern California Edison came out on top largely due to its interest in large, concentrating solar thermal projects, such as a 245 megawatt agreement with eSolar. And it's working to build 250 megawatts of solar panels across 65 million square feet of rooftops.

However, concentrating solar thermal projects underway by other electricity providers could dethrone the southern California utility from its top spot, the report predicted.

Golden State utilities may be the earliest solar adopters but others in the west, mid-west and mid-Atlantic regions are also increasingly embracing renewables, according to the study.

In its forecast, 4,600 megawatts of concentrating solar systems will be planned nationwide within the next eight years, at least 600 megawatts of which won't come from sprawling solar farms.

For instance, initiatives to encourage solar adoption by homeowners and businesses are coming from Duke Energy, Long Island Power Authority, San Diego Gas & Electric, and Southern California Edison.

State renewable energy portfolio standards will help to advance adoption of big solar installations, but progress will stall if federal tax credits, set to expire at the end of the year, aren't extended, said Mike Taylor, author of the report, said in a conference call.

"We're hitting some new momentum with new business models but this tax credit uncertainty is potentially holding things back and creating some friction in the system," added Taylor, the association's research director. "A lot of utilities are waiting in the wings to see what's happening. Some are jumping ahead of the game because they want to be the first movers."

By his group's estimation, other states making inroads with solar power include Arizona, Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Texas, Washington and Wisconsin.

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BC Hydro launches program to help coronavirus-affected customers with their bills

BC Hydro COVID-19 Bill Relief provides payment deferrals, no-penalty payment plans, Crisis Fund grants up to $600, and utility bill assistance as customers face pandemic layoffs, social distancing, and increased home power usage.

 

Key Points

A BC Hydro program offering bill deferrals, no-penalty plans, and up to $600 Crisis Fund grants during COVID-19.

✅ Defer payments or set no-penalty payment plans

✅ Apply for up to $600 Customer Crisis Fund grants

✅ Measures to ensure reliable power and remote customer service

 

BC Hydro is implementing a program, including bill relief measures, to help people pay their bills if they’re affected by the novel coronavirus.

The Crown corporation says British Columbians are facing a variety of financial pressures related to the COVID-19 pandemic, as some workplaces close or reduce staffing levels and commercial power consumption plummets across the province.

BC Hydro said it also expects increased power usage as more people stay home amid health officials’ requests that people take social distancing measures, even as electricity demand is down 10% provincewide.

Under the new program, customers will be able to defer bill payments or arrange a payment plan with no penalty, though a recent report on deferred operating costs outlines long-term implications for the utility.

BC Hydro says some customers could also be eligible for grants of up to $600 under its Customer Crisis Fund, if facing power disconnection due to job loss, illness or loss of a family member, while in other jurisdictions power bills were cut for households during the pandemic.

The company says it has taken precautions to keep power running by isolating key facilities, including its control centre, and by increasing its cleaning schedule, a priority even as some utilities face burgeoning debt amid COVID-19.

It has also closed its walk-in customer service desks to reduce risk from face-to-face contact and suspended all non-essential business travel, public meetings and site tours, and warned businesses about BC Hydro impersonation scams during this period.

 

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Investing in a new energy economy for Montana

Montana New Energy Economy integrates grid modernization, renewable energy, storage, and demand response to cut costs, create jobs, enable electric transportation, and reduce emissions through utility-scale efficiency, real-time markets, and distributed resources.

 

Key Points

Plan to modernize Montana's grid with renewables, storage and efficiency to lower costs, cut emissions and add jobs.

✅ Grid modernization enables real-time markets and demand response

✅ Utility-scale renewables paired with storage deliver firm power

✅ Efficiency and DERs cut peaks, costs, and pollution

 

Over the next decade, Montana ratepayers will likely invest over a billion dollars into what is now being called the new energy economy.

Not since Edison electrified a New York City neighborhood in 1882 have we had such an opportunity to rethink the way we commercially produce and consume electric energy.

Looking ahead, the modernization of Edison’s grid will lower the consumer costs, creating many thousands of permanent, well-paying jobs. It will prepare the grid for significant new loads like America going electric in transportation, and in doing so it will reduce a major source of air pollution known to directly threaten the core health of Montana and the planet.

Energy innovation makes our choices almost unrecognizable from the 1980s, when Montana last built a large, central-station power plant. Our future power plants will be smaller and more modular, efficient and less polluting — with some technologies approaching zero operating emissions.

The 21st Century grid will optimize how the supply and demand of electricity is managed across larger interconnected service areas. Utilities will interact more directly with their consumers, with utility trends guiding a new focus on providing a portfolio of energy services versus simply spinning an electric meter. Investments in utility-scale energy efficiency — LED streetlights, internet-connected thermostats, and tightening of commercial building envelopes among many — will allow consumers to directly save on their monthly bills, to improve their quality of life, and to help utilities reduce expensive and excessive peaks in demand.

The New Energy Economy will be built not of one single technology, but of many — distributed over a modernized grid across the West that approaches a real-time energy market, as provinces pursue market overhauls to adapt — connecting consumers, increasing competition, reducing cost and improving reliability.

Boldly leading the charge is a new and proven class of commercial generation powered by wind and solar energy, the latter of which employs advanced solid-state electronics, free fuel and no emissions or moving parts. Montana is blessed with wind and solar energy resources, so this is a Made-in-Montana energy choice. Note that these plants are typically paired with utility-scale energy storage investments — also an essential building block of the 21st century grid — to deliver firm, on-demand electric service.

Once considered new age and trendy, these production technologies are today competent and shovel-ready. Their adoption will build domestic energy independence. And, they are aggressively cost-competitive. For example, this year the company ISO New England — operator of a six-state grid covering all of New England — released an all-source bid for new production capacity. Unexpectedly, 100% of the winning bids were large solar electric power and storage projects, as coal and nuclear disruptions continue to shape markets. For the first time, no applications for fossil-fueled generation cleared auction.

By avoiding the burning of traditional fuels, the new energy technologies promise to offset and eventually eliminate the current 1,500 million metric tons of damaging greenhouse gases — one-quarter of the nation’s total — that are annually injected into the atmosphere by our nation’s current electric generation plants. The first step to solving the toughest and most expensive environmental issues of our day — be they costly wildfires or the regional drought that threatens Montana agriculture and outdoor recreation — is a thoughtful state energy policy, built around the new energy economy, that avoids pitfalls like the Wyoming clean energy bill now proposed.

Important potential investments not currently ready for prime time are also on the horizon, including small and highly efficient nuclear innovation in power plants — called small modular reactors (SMR) — designed to produce around-the-clock electric power with zero toxic emissions.

The nation’s first demonstration SMR plant is scheduled to be built sometime late this decade. Fingers are crossed for a good outcome. But until then, experts agree that big questions on the future commercial viability of nuclear remain unanswered: What will be SMR’s cost of electricity? Will it compete? Where will we source the refined fuel (most uranium is imported), and what will be the plan for its safe, permanent disposal?

So, what is Montana’s path forward? The short answer is: Hopefully, all of the above.

Key to Montana’s future investment success will be a respectful state planning process that learns from Texas grid improvements to bolster reliability.

Montanans deserve a smart and civil and bipartisan conversation to shape our new energy economy. There will be no need, nor place, for parties that barnstorm the state about "radical agendas" and partisan name calling – that just poisons the conversation, eliminates creative exchange and pulls us off task.

The task is to identify and vet good choices. It’s about permanently lowering energy costs to consumers. It’s about being business smart and business friendly. It’s about honoring the transition needs of our legacy energy communities. And, it’s about stewarding our world-class environment in earnest. That’s the job ahead.

 

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Germany turns to coal for a third of its electricity

Germany's Coal Reliance reflects an energy crisis, soaring natural gas prices, and a nuclear phase-out, as Destatis data show higher coal-fired electricity despite growing wind and solar generation, impacting grid stability and emissions.

 

Key Points

Germany's coal reliance is more coal power due to gas spikes and a nuclear phase-out, despite wind and solar growth.

✅ Coal share near one-third of electricity, per Destatis

✅ Gas-fired output falls as prices soar after Russia's invasion

✅ Wind and solar rise; grid stability and recession risks persist

 

Germany is relying on highly-polluting coal for almost a third of its electricity, as the impact of government policies, reflecting an energy balancing act for the power sector, and the war in Ukraine leads producers in Europe’s largest economy to use less gas and nuclear energy.

In the first six months of the year, Germany generated 82.6 kWh of electricity from coal, up 17 per cent from the same period last year, according to data from Destatis, the national statistics office, published on Wednesday. The leap means almost one-third of German electricity generation now comes from coal-fired plants, up from 27 per cent last year. Production from natural gas, which has tripled in price to €235 per megawatt hour since Russia’s invasion in late February, fell 18 per cent to only 11.7 per cent of total generation.

Destatis said that the shift from gas to coal was sharper in the second quarter. Coal-fired electricity increased by an annual rate of 23 per cent in the three months to June, while electricity generation from natural gas fell 19 per cent.

The figures highlight the challenge facing European governments in meeting clean energy goals after the Kremlin announced this week that the Nordstream 1 pipeline that takes Russian gas to Germany would remain closed until Europe removed sanctions on the country’s oil.

Germany has been trying to reduce its reliance on coal, which releases almost twice as many emissions as gas and more than 60 times those of nuclear energy, according to estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, though grid expansion challenges have slowed renewable build-out in recent years.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the opposition CDU bore “complete responsibility” for the exit from coal and nuclear power that formed part of his predecessor Angela Merkel’s Energiewende policies, amid a continuing nuclear option debate in climate policy, which in turn raised reliance on Russian gas. At the beginning of this year, more than 50 per cent of Germany’s gas imports came from Russia, a figure that fell slightly over the opening half of 2022.

But CDU leader Friedrich Merz accused the government of “madness” over its decision to idle the country’s three remaining nuclear power stations from the end of this year, though officials have argued that nuclear would do little to solve the gas issue in the short term.

Electricity generation from nuclear energy has already halved after three of the six nuclear power plants that were still in operation at the end of 2021 were closed during the first half of this year. Berlin said on Monday it would keep on standby two of its remaining three nuclear power stations, a move to extend nuclear power during the energy crisis, which were all due to close at the end of the year.

The German government has warned of the risk of electricity shortages this winter. “We cannot be sure that, in the event of grid bottlenecks in neighbouring countries, there will be enough power plants available to help stabilise our electricity grid in the short term,” said German economy minister Robert Habeck on Monday.

However Scholz said that, after raising gas storage levels to 86 per cent of capacity, Germany would “probably get through this winter, despite all the tension”.

One bright spot from the data was the increase in use of renewable energy, highlighting a recent renewables milestone in Germany. The proportion of electricity generated from wind power generation rose by 18 per cent to 25 per cent of all electricity generation, while solar energy production increased 20 per cent.

Ángel Talavera, head of Europe economics at the consultancy Oxford Economics, said that the success in moving away from gas towards other energy sources “means that the risks of hard energy rationing over the winter are less severe now, even with little to no Russian gas flows”.

However, economists still expect a recession in the eurozone’s largest economy, amid a deteriorating German economy outlook over the near term, as a large part of the impact comes via higher prices and because industries and households still rely on gas for heating.

Separate official data also published on Wednesday showed that German industrial production slid 0.3 per cent between June and July. Production at Germany’s most energy intensive industries fell almost 7 per cent in the five months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“The demand destruction caused by the surge in prices will still send the German economy into recession over the winter,” said Talavera.

 

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Niagara Falls Powerhouse Gets a Billion-Dollar Upgrade for the 21st Century

Sir Adam Beck I refurbishment boosts hydropower capacity in Niagara, upgrading turbines, generators, and controls for Ontario Power Generation. The billion-dollar project enhances grid reliability, clean energy output, and preserves heritage architecture.

 

Key Points

An OPG upgrade of the historic Niagara plant to replace equipment, add 150 MW, and extend clean power life.

✅ Adds at least 150 MW to Ontario's clean energy supply

✅ Replaces turbines, generators, transformers, and controls

✅ Creates hundreds of skilled construction and engineering jobs

 

Ontario's iconic Sir Adam Beck hydroelectric generating station in Niagara is set to undergo a massive, billion-dollar refurbishment. The project will significantly boost the power station's capacity and extend its lifespan, with efforts similar to revitalizing older dams seen across North America, ensuring a reliable supply of clean energy for decades to come.


A Century of Power Generation

The Sir Adam Beck generating stations have played a pivotal role in Ontario's power grid for over a century. The first generating station, Sir Adam Beck I, went online in 1922, followed by Sir Adam Beck II in 1954. A third station, the Sir Adam Beck Pump Generating Station, was added in 1957, highlighting the role of pumped storage in Ontario for grid flexibility, Collectively, they form one of the largest hydroelectric complexes in the world, harnessing the power of the Niagara River.


Preparing for Increased Demand

The planned refurbishment of Sir Adam Beck I is part of Ontario Power Generation's broader strategy, which includes the life extension at Pickering NGS among other initiatives, to meet the growing energy demands of the province. With the population expanding and a shift towards electrification, Ontario will need to increase its power generation capacity while also focusing on sustainable and clean sources of energy.


Billions to Secure Sustainable Energy

The project to upgrade Sir Adam Beck I carries a hefty price tag of over a billion dollars but is considered a vital investment in Ontario's energy infrastructure, and recent OPG financial results underscore the utility's capacity to manage long-term capital plans. The refurbishment will see the replacement of aging turbines, generators, and transformers, and a significant upgrade to the station's control systems. Following the refurbishment, the output of Sir Adam Beck I is expected to increase by at least 150 megawatts – enough to power thousands of homes and businesses.


Creating Green Jobs

In addition to securing the province's energy future, the upgrade presents significant economic benefits to the Niagara region. The project will create hundreds of well-paying construction and engineering jobs, similar to employment from the continued operation of Pickering Station across Ontario, during the several years it will take to implement the upgrades.


Commitment to Hydropower

Ontario Power Generation (OPG) has long touted the benefits of hydropower as a reliable, renewable, and affordable source of energy, even as an analysis of rising grid emissions underscores the importance of clean generation to meet demand. The Sir Adam Beck complex is a shining example and represents a significant asset in the fight against climate change while providing reliable power to Ontario's businesses and residents.


Balancing Energy Needs with Heritage Preservation

The refurbishment will also carefully integrate modern design with the station's heritage elements, paralleling decisions such as the refurbishment of Pickering B that weigh system needs and public trust. Sir Adam Beck I is a designated historic site, and the project aims to preserve the station's architectural significance while enhancing its energy generation capabilities.

 

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China's electric power woes cast clouds on U.S. solar's near-term future

China Power Rationing disrupts the solar supply chain as coal shortages, price controls, and dual-control emissions policy curb electricity, squeezing polysilicon, aluminum, and module production and raising equipment costs amid surging post-Covid industrial demand.

 

Key Points

China's electricity curbs from coal shortages, price caps, and emissions targets disrupt solar output and materials.

✅ Polysilicon and aluminum output cut by power rationing

✅ Coal price spikes and power price caps squeeze generators

✅ Dual-control emissions policy triggers provincial curbs

 

The solar manufacturing supply chain is among the industries being affected by a combination of soaring power demand, coal shortages, and carbon emission reduction measures which have seen widespread power cuts in China.

In Yunnan province, in southwest China, producers of the silicon metal which feeds polysilicon have been operating at 10% of the output they achieved in August. They are expected to continue to do so for the rest of the year as provincial authorities try to control electricity demand with a measure that is also affecting the phosphorus industry.

Fellow solar supply chain members from the aluminum industry in Guangxi province, in the south, have been forced to operate just two days per week, alongside peers in the concrete, steel, lime, and ceramics segments. Manufacturers in neighboring Guangdong have access to normal power supplies only on Fridays and Saturdays with electricity rationed to a 15% grid security load for the rest of the time.

pv magazine USA reported that a Tier 1 solar module manufacturer warned customers in an email that energy shortages in China have forced it to reduce or stop production at its Chinese manufacturing sites. The company warned the event will also affect output from its downstream cell and module production facilities in Southeast Asia.

The memo said that in order to recover from the effects of the “potential Force Majeure event,” it may delay or stop equipment delivery or seek to renegotiate contracts to pass through higher prices.

Raw material sourcing
With reports of drastic power shortages emerging from China in recent days, the country has actually been experiencing problems since late June, and similar pressures have seen India ration coal supplies this year, but rationing is not unusual during the peak summer hours.

What has changed this time is that the outages have continued and prompted rationing measures across 19 of the nation’s provinces for the rest of the year. The problems have been caused by a combination of rising post-Covid electricity demand at a time when the politically-motivated ban on imports of Australian coal has tightened supply; and the manner in which Beijing controls power prices, with the situation further exacerbated by carbon emissions reduction policy.

Demand
Electricity demand from industry, underscoring China’s electricity appetite, was 13.5 percentage points higher in the first eight months of the year than in the same period of 2020, at 3,585 TWh. That reflected a 13.8% year-on-year rise in total consumption, following earlier power demand drops when coronavirus shuttered plants, to 5.47 PWh, according to data from state energy industry trade body the China Electricity Council.

Figures produced by the China General Administration of Customs tell the same story: a rebound driven by the global recovery from the pandemic, as global power demand surges above pre-pandemic levels, with China recording import and export trade worth RMB2.48 trillion ($385 billion) in January-to-August. That was up 23.7% on the same period of last year and 22.8% higher than in the first eight months of 2019.

With Beijing having enforced an unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal for the last year or so – as the result of an ongoing diplomatic spat with Australia – rising demand for coal (which provided around 73% of Chinese electricity in the first half of the year) has further raised prices for the fossil fuel.

The problem for Chinese coal-fired power generators is that Beijing maintains strict controls on the price of electricity. As a result, input costs cannot be passed on to consumers. The mismatch between a liberalized coal market and centrally controlled end-user prices is illustrated by the current situation in Guangdong. There, a coal price of RMB1,560 per ton ($242) has pushed the cost of coal-fired electricity up to RMB0.472 per kilowatt-hour ($0.073). With coal power companies facing an electricity price ceiling of around RMB0.463/kWh ($0.071), generators are losing around RMB0.12 for every kilowatt-hour they generate. In that situation, rationing electricity supplies is an obvious remedy.

The crisis has been worsened by the introduction of China’s “dual control” energy policy, which aims to help meet President Xi Jinping’s climate change pledge of hitting peak carbon emissions this decade and a net zero economy by 2060, and to reduce coal power production over time. Dual control refers to attempts to wind down greenhouse gas emissions at both a national level and in more local areas, such as provinces and cities.

Red status
With the finer details of the carbon reduction policy yet to be ironed out, government departments and provincial and city authorities have started to set their own emission-reduction targets. In mid-August, state planning body the China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) published a table of the energy control situation across the nation. With nine provinces marked red for their energy consumption, and a further 10 highlighted as yellow, officials received another motivation to introduce power rationing.

China’s solar industry is being impacted by coal shortages for electric power generation. In this 2014 photo, a thermal generating plant’s cooling towers loom over a street in Henan Province.
Image: flickr/V.T. Polywoda

The current approach of rolling blackouts seems unlikely to be a sustainable solution, as surging electricity demand strains power systems worldwide, given the damage it could inflict on industry and the resentment it would cause in parts of the nation already preparing for winter.

The choice facing China’s policymakers is whether to ramp up coal supplies to force prices down by using decommissioned domestic supplies and halting the ban on Australian imports, or to raise electricity prices to prompt generators to get the lights back on. While the drawbacks of raising household electricity bills seem obvious, the first approach of using more coal could endanger the nation’s climate change commitments on the even of the COP26 meeting in Glasgow, Scotland, in November. Sources close to the NDRC have suggested the electricity price may be set to rise soon.

GDP
What is clear is the effect the energy crisis is having on the Chinese economy and on the solar supply chain. Leading up to a  national day holiday in China, the coal price in northern China rose to around RMB2,000 per ton ($310), three times higher than at the beginning of the year.

Investment bank China International Capital Corp. blamed the dual control emission reduction policy for the electricity shortages. It predicted a 0.1-0.15 percentage point impact on economic growth in the last quarter of 2021.  Morgan Stanley has put that figure at 1% in the current quarter, if industrial output restrictions continue. And Japan’s Nomura Securities revised down its annual forecast on Chinese growth from 8.2% to 7.7%. It now expects GDP gains in the third and fourth quarters to cool from 5.1% to 4.7%, and from 4.4% to 3%, respectively.

 

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Why subsidies for electric cars are a bad idea for Canada

EV Subsidies in Canada influence greenhouse-gas emissions based on electricity grid mix; in Ontario and Quebec they reduce pollution, while fossil-fuel grids blunt benefits. Compare costs per tonne with carbon tax and renewable energy policies.

 

Key Points

Government rebates for electric vehicles, whose emissions impact and cost-effectiveness depend on provincial grid mix.

✅ Impact varies by grid emissions; clean hydro-nuclear cuts CO2.

✅ MEI estimates up to $523 per tonne vs $50 carbon price.

✅ Best value: tax carbon; target renewables, efficiency, hybrids.

 

Bad ideas sometimes look better, and sell better, than good ones – as with the proclaimed electric-car revolution that policymakers tout today. Not always, or else Canada wouldn’t be the mostly well-run place that it is. But sometimes politicians embrace a less-than-best policy – because its attractive appearance may make it more likely to win the popularity contest, right now, even though it will fail in the long run.

The most seasoned political advisers know it. Pollsters too. Voters, in contrast, don’t know what they don’t know, which is why bad policy often triumphs. At first glance, the wrong sometimes looks like it must be right, while better and best give the appearance of being bad and worst.

This week, the Montreal Economic Institute put out a study on the costs and benefits of taxpayer subsidies for electric cars. They considered the logic of the huge amounts of money being offered to purchasers in the country’s two largest provinces. In Quebec, if you buy an electric vehicle, the government will give you up to $8,000; in Ontario, buying an electric car or truck entitles you to a cheque from the taxpayer of between $6,000 and $14,000. The subsidies are rich because the cars aren’t cheap.

Will putting more electric cars on the road lower greenhouse-gas emissions? Yes – in some provinces, where they can be better for the planet when the grid is clean. But it all depends on how a province generates electricity. In places like Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia and Nunavut territory, where most electricity comes from burning fossil fuels, an electric car may actually generate more greenhouse gases than one running on traditional gasoline. The tailpipe of an electric vehicle may not have any emissions. But quite a lot of emissions may have been generated to produce the power that went to the socket that charged it.

A few years ago, University of Toronto engineering professor Christopher Kennedy estimated that electric cars are only less polluting than the gasoline vehicles they replace when the local electrical grid produces a good chunk of its power from renewable sources – thereby lowering emissions to less than roughly 600 tonnes of CO2 per gigawatt hour.

Unfortunately, the electricity-generating systems in lots of places – from India to China to many American states – are well above that threshold. In those jurisdictions, an electric car will be powered in whole or in large part by electricity created from the burning of a fossil fuel, such as coal. As a result, that car, though carrying the green monicker of “electric,” is likely to be more polluting than a less costly model with an internal combustion or hybrid engine.

The same goes for the Canadian juridictions mentioned above. Their electricity is dirtier, so operating an electric car there won’t be very green. Alberta, for example, is aiming to generate 30 per cent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 – which means that the other 70 per cent of its electricity will still come from fossil fuels. (Today, the figure is even higher.) An Albertan trading in a gasoline car for an electric vehicle is making a statement – just not the one he or she likely has in mind.

In Ontario and Quebec, however, most electricity is generated from non-polluting sources, even though Canada still produced 18% from fossil fuels in 2019 overall. Nearly all of Quebec’s power comes from hydro, and more than 90 per cent of Ontario’s electricity is from zero-emission generation, mainly hydro and nuclear. British Columbia, Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador also produce the bulk of their electricity from hydro. Electric cars in those provinces, powered as they are by mostly clean electricity, should reduce emissions, relative to gas-powered cars.

But here’s the rub: Electric cars are currently expensive, and, as a recent survey shows, consequently not all that popular. Ontario and Quebec introduced those big subsidies in an attempt to get people to buy them. Those subsidies will surely put more electric cars on the road and in the driveways of (mostly wealthy) people. It will be a very visible policy – hey, look at all those electrics on the highway and at the mall!

However, that result will be achieved at great cost. According to the MEI, for Ontario to reach its goal of electrics constituting 5 per cent of new vehicles sold, the province will have to dish out up to $8.6-billion in subsidies over the next 13 years.

And the environmental benefits achieved? Again, according to the MEI estimate, that huge sum will lower the province’s greenhouse-gas emissions by just 2.4 per cent. If the MEI’s estimate is right, that’s far too many bucks for far too small an environmental bang.

Here’s another way to look at it: How much does it cost to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by other means? Well, B.C.’s current carbon tax is $30 a tonne, or a little less than 7 cents on a litre of gasoline. It has caused GHG emissions per unit of GDP to fall in small but meaningful ways, thanks to consumers and businesses making millions of little, unspectacular decisions to reduce their energy costs. The federal government wants all provinces to impose a cost equivalent to $50 a tonne – and every economic model says that extra cost will make a dent in greenhouse-gas emissions, though in ways that will not involve politicians getting to cut any ribbons or hold parades.

What’s the effective cost of Ontario’s subsidy for electric cars? The MEI pegs it at $523 per tonne. Yes, that subsidy will lower emissions. It just does so in what appears to be the most expensive and inefficient way possible, rather than the cheapest way, namely a simple, boring and mildly painful carbon tax.

Electric vehicles are an amazing technology. But they’ve also become a way of expressing something that’s come to be known as “virtue signalling.” A government that wants to look green sees logic in throwing money at such an obvious, on-brand symbol, or touting a 2035 EV mandate as evidence of ambition. But the result is an off-target policy – and a signal that is mostly noise.

 

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