MacyÂ’s to Install Solar Power in 26 Stores While Significantly Reducing Energy Consumption

COVID-19 Impact on Global Oil Demand 2020 signals an IEA forecast of declining consumption as travel restrictions curb transport fuels, disrupt energy markets, and shift OPEC and non-OPEC supply dynamics amid economic slowdown.

Key Points

IEA sees first demand drop since 2009 as COVID-19 curbs travel, weakening transport fuels and unsettling energy markets.

✅ IEA base case: 2020 demand at 99.9 mb/d, down 90 kb/d from 2019.

✅ Travel restrictions hit transport fuels; China drives the decline.

✅ Scenarios: low -730 kb/d; high +480 kb/d in 2020.

Global oil demand is expected to decline in 2020 as the impact of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) spreads around the world, constricting travel and broader economic activity, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest oil market forecast.

The situation remains fluid, creating an extraordinary degree of uncertainty over what the full global impact of the virus will be. In the IEA’s central base case, even as global CO2 emissions flatlined in 2019 according to the IEA, demand this year drops for the first time since 2009 because of the deep contraction in oil consumption in China, and major disruptions to global travel and trade.

“The coronavirus crisis is affecting a wide range of energy markets – including coal-fired electricity generation, gas and renewables – but its impact on oil markets is particularly severe because it is stopping people and goods from moving around, dealing a heavy blow to demand for transport fuels,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “This is especially true in China, the largest energy consumer in the world, which accounted for more than 80% of global oil demand growth last year. While the repercussions of the virus are spreading to other parts of the world, what happens in China will have major implications for global energy and oil markets.”

The IEA now sees global oil demand at 99.9 million barrels a day in 2020, down around 90,000 barrels a day from 2019. This is a sharp downgrade from the IEA’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand would grow by 825,000 barrels a day in 2020.

The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments move to contain the coronavirus outbreak, how successful their efforts are, and what lingering impact the global health crisis has on economic activity.

To account for the extreme uncertainty facing energy markets, the IEA has developed two other scenarios for how global oil demand could evolve this year. In a more pessimistic low case, global measures fail to contain the virus, and global demand falls by 730,000 barrels a day in 2020. In a more optimistic high case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand grows by 480,000 barrels a day.

“We are following the situation extremely closely and will provide regular updates to our forecasts as the picture becomes clearer,” Dr Birol said. “The impact of the coronavirus on oil markets may be temporary. But the longer-term challenges facing the world’s suppliers are not going to go away, especially those heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues. As the IEA has repeatedly said, these producer countries need more dynamic and diversified economies in order to navigate the multiple uncertainties that we see today.”

The IEA also published its medium-term outlook examining the key issues in global demand, supply, refining and trade to 2025, as well as the trajectory of the global energy transition now shaping markets. Following a contraction in 2020 and an expected sharp rebound in 2021, yearly growth in global oil demand is set to slow as consumption of transport fuels grows more slowly and as national net-zero pathways, with Canada needing more electricity to reach net-zero influencing power demand, according to the report. Between 2019 and 2025, global oil demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of just below 1 million barrels a day. Over the period as whole, demand rises by a total of 5.7 million barrels a day, with China and India accounting for about half of the growth.

At the same time, the world’s oil production capacity is expected to rise by 5.9 million barrels a day, with more than three-quarters of it coming from non-OPEC producers, the report forecasts. But production growth in the United States and other non-OPEC countries is set to lose momentum after 2022, amid shifts in Wall Street's energy strategy linked to policy signals, allowing OPEC producers from the Middle East to turn the taps back up to help keep the global oil market in balance.

The medium-term market report, Oil 2020, also considers the impact of clean energy transitions on oil market trends. Demand growth for gasoline and diesel between 2019 and 2025 is forecast to weaken as countries around the world implement policies to improve efficiency and cut carbon dioxide emissions – and as solar power becomes the cheapest electricity in many markets and electric vehicles increase in popularity. The impact of energy transitions on oil supply remains unclear, with many companies prioritising short-cycle projects for the coming years.

“The coronavirus crisis is adding to the uncertainties the global oil industry faces as it contemplates new investments and business strategies,” Dr Birol said. “The pressures on companies are changing, with European oil majors turning electric to diversify. They need to show that they can deliver not just the energy that economies rely on, but also the emissions reductions that the world needs to help tackle our climate challenge.”

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IEC-PETL Electricity Agreement streamlines grid management, debt settlement, and bank guarantees, shifting power supply, transmission, and distribution to PETL via IEC-built sub-stations, bolstering energy cooperation, utility billing, and payment assurance in PA areas.

Key Points

A 15-year deal transferring PA grid operations to PETL, settling legacy debt, and securing payments with bank guarantees.

✅ NIS 915 million repaid in 48 installments.

✅ PETL assumes distribution, O&M, and sub-station ownership.

✅ 15-year, NIS 2.8b per year supply and services contract.

The Palestinian Authority will pay Israel Electric NIS 915 million and take over management of its grid through Palestinian electricity supplier PETL.

The Israel Electric Corporation (IEC) (TASE: ELEC.B22) and Palestinian electricity supplier PETL have signed a draft commercial agreement under which the Palestinian Authority's (PA) debt of almost NIS 1 billion will be repaid. The agreement also transfers actual management of the supply of electricity to Palestinian customers from IEC to the Palestinian electricity authority, enabling consideration of distributed solutions such as a virtual power plant program in future planning.

Up until now, the IEC was unable to actually collect debts for electricity from Palestinian customers, because the connection with them was through the PA. Responsibility for collection will now be exclusively in Palestinian hands, with the PA providing hundreds of millions of shekels in bank guarantees for future debts. The agreement, which is valid for 15 years, amounts to an estimated NIS 2.8 billion a year, as of now.

IEC will sell electricity and related services to PETL through four high-tension sub-stations built by IEC for PETL and through high and low-tension connection points, similar to large interconnector projects like the Lake Erie Connector, for the purpose of distribution and supply of the electricity by PETL or an entity on its behalf to consumers in PA territory. PETL will have sole operational and maintenance responsibility for distribution and supply and ownership of the four sub-stations.

NIS 915 million in 48 payments

According to the IEC announcement, the settlement was reached following negotiations following the signing of an agreement in principle in September 2016 by the minister of finance, the government coordinator of activities in the territories, and the Palestinian minister for civilian affairs. The parties reached commercial understandings yesterday that made possible today's signing of the first commercial document of its kind regulating commercial relations - the sales of electricity - between the parties. The agreement will go into effect after it is approved by the IEC board of directors, the Public Utilities Authority (electricity), reflecting regulatory oversight akin to Ontario industrial electricity pricing consultations, and the IDF Chief Electrical Staff Officer. Representatives of IEC, the Ministry of Finance, the Public Utilities Authority (electricity), the government coordinator of activities in the territories, the civilian authority, the PA government, and PETL took part in the negotiations.

The agreement also settles the PA's historical debt to IEC. The PA will begin payment of NIS 915 million in debt for consumption of electricity before September 2016 to IEC Jerusalem District Ltd. in 48 equal installments after the final signing, as stipulated in the agreement in principle signed by the Israeli government and the PA on September 13, 2016.

The PA's debt for electricity amounted to almost NIS 2 billion in 2016. The initial spadework for the current debt settlement was accomplished in that year, after the parties reached understandings on writing off NIS 500 million of the Palestinian debt. The PA paid NIS 600 million in October 2016, and the remainder will be paid now.

It was also reported that an arrangement of securities and guarantees to ensure payment to IEC under the agreement had been settled, including the past debt. IEC will obtain a bank guarantee and a PA guarantee, in addition to the existing collection mechanisms at the company's disposal.

Minister of Finance Moshe Kahlon said, "Signing the commercial agreement is a historic step completing the agreement signed by the governments in September 2016. Strengthening economic cooperation between Israel and the PA is above all an Israeli security interest. The agreement will ensure future payments to the IEC and reinforce its financial position. I congratulate the negotiating teams for the completion of their task."

Minister of National Infrastructure, Energy, and Water Resources Dr. Yuval Steinitz said, "In my meeting last year with Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah in Jenin, we agreed that it was necessary to settle the debt and formalize relations between IEC and the PA. The settlement signed today is a breakthrough, both in the measures for payment of the Palestinian debt to IEC and Israel and in arranging future relations to prevent more debts from emerging in the future. With the signing of the agreement, we will be able to make progress with the Palestinians in developing a modern electrical grid, aligning with regional initiatives like the Cyprus electricity highway, according to the model of the sub-station we inaugurated in Jenin."

IEC chairperson Yiftah Ron Tal said, "This is a historic event. In this agreement, IEC is correcting for the first time a historical distortion of accumulated debt without guarantees, ability to collect it, or control over the amount of debt. This anchor agreement not only constitutes an unprecedented financial achievement; it also constitutes an important milestone in regulating electricity commercial relations between the Israeli and Palestinian electric companies, comparable to cross-border efforts such as the Ireland-France interconnector in Europe."

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Medicine Hat Smart Grid AI modernizes electricity distribution with automation, sensors, and demand response, enhancing energy efficiency and renewable integration while using predictive analytics and real-time data to reduce consumption and optimize grid operations.

Key Points

An initiative using smart grid tech and AI to optimize energy use, cut waste, and improve renewable integration.

✅ Predictive analytics forecast demand to balance load and prevent outages.

✅ Automation, sensors, and meters enable dynamic, resilient distribution.

✅ Integrates solar and wind with demand response to cut emissions.

The city of Medicine Hat, Alberta, is taking bold steps toward enhancing its energy infrastructure and reducing electricity consumption with the help of innovative technology. Recently, several grant winners have been selected to improve the city's electricity grid distribution and leverage artificial intelligence (AI) to adapt to electricity demands while optimizing energy use. These projects promise to not only streamline energy delivery but also contribute to more sustainable practices by reducing energy waste.

Advancing the Electricity Grid

Medicine Hat’s electricity grid is undergoing a significant transformation, thanks to a new set of initiatives funded by government grants that advance a smarter electricity infrastructure vision for the region. The city has long been known for its commitment to sustainable energy practices, and these new projects are part of that legacy. The winners of the grants aim to modernize the city’s electricity grid to make it more resilient, efficient, and adaptable to the changing demands of the future, aligning with macrogrid strategies adopted nationally.

At the core of these upgrades is the integration of smart grid technologies. A smart grid is a more advanced version of the traditional power grid, incorporating digital communications and real-time data to optimize the delivery and use of electricity. By connecting sensors, meters, and control systems across the grid, along with the integration of AI data centers where appropriate, the grid can detect and respond to changes in demand, adjust to faults or outages, and even integrate renewable energy sources more efficiently.

One of the key aspects of the grant-funded projects involves automating the grid. Automation allows for the dynamic adjustment of power distribution in response to changes in demand or supply, reducing the risk of blackouts or inefficiencies. For instance, if an area of the city experiences a surge in energy use, the grid can automatically reroute power from less-used areas or adjust the distribution to avoid overloading circuits. This kind of dynamic response is crucial for maintaining a stable and reliable electricity supply.

Moreover, the enhanced grid will be able to better incorporate renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power, reflecting British Columbia's clean-energy shift as well, which are increasingly important in Alberta’s energy mix. By utilizing a more flexible and responsive grid, Medicine Hat can make the most of renewable energy when it is available, reducing reliance on non-renewable sources.

Using AI to Reduce Energy Consumption

While improving the grid infrastructure is an essential first step, the real innovation comes in the form of using artificial intelligence (AI) to reduce energy consumption. Several of the grant winners are focused on developing AI-driven solutions that can predict energy demand patterns, optimize energy use in real-time, and encourage consumers to reduce unnecessary energy consumption.

AI can be used to analyze vast amounts of data from across the electricity grid, such as weather forecasts, historical energy usage, and real-time consumption data. This analysis can then be used to make predictions about future energy needs. For example, AI can predict when the demand for electricity will peak, allowing the grid operators to adjust supply ahead of time, ensuring a more efficient distribution of power. By predicting high-demand periods, AI can also assist in optimizing the use of renewable energy sources, ensuring that solar and wind power are utilized when they are most abundant.

In addition to grid management, AI can help consumers save energy by making smarter decisions about how and when to use electricity. For instance, AI-powered smart home devices can learn household routines and adjust heating, cooling, and appliance usage to reduce energy consumption without compromising comfort. By using data to optimize energy use, these technologies not only reduce costs for consumers but also decrease overall demand on the grid, leading to a more sustainable energy system.

The AI initiatives are also expected to assist businesses in reducing their carbon footprints. By using AI to monitor and optimize energy use, industrial and commercial enterprises can cut down on waste and reduce energy-related operational costs, while anticipating digital load growth signaled by an Alberta data centre agreement in the province. This has the potential to make Medicine Hat a more energy-efficient city, benefiting both residents and businesses alike.

A Sustainable Future

The integration of smart grid technology and AI-driven solutions is positioning Medicine Hat as a leader in sustainable energy practices. The city’s approach is focused not only on improving energy efficiency and reducing waste but also on making electricity consumption more manageable and adaptable in a rapidly changing world. These innovations are a crucial part of Medicine Hat's long-term strategy to reduce carbon emissions and meet climate goals while ensuring reliable and affordable energy for its residents.

In addition to the immediate benefits of these projects, the broader impact is likely to influence other municipalities across Canada, including insights from Toronto's electricity planning for rapid growth, and beyond. As the technology matures and proves successful, it could set a benchmark for other cities looking to modernize their energy grids and adopt sustainable, AI-driven solutions.

By investing in these forward-thinking technologies, Medicine Hat is not only future-proofing its energy infrastructure but also taking decisive steps toward a greener, more energy-efficient future. The collaboration between local government, technology providers, and the community marks a significant milestone in the city’s commitment to innovation and sustainability.

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Brazil ICMS Tax Cap limits state VAT on fuels, natural gas, electricity, communications, and transit, promising short-term price relief amid inflation, with federal compensation to states and potential legal challenges affecting investments and ANP auctions.

Key Points

A policy capping state VAT at 17-18 percent on fuels, electricity, and services to temper prices and inflation.

✅ Caps VAT to 17-18% on fuels, power, telecom, transit

✅ Short-term relief; medium-long term impact uncertain

✅ Federal compensation; potential court challenges, investment risk

Brazil’s congress approved a bill that limits the ICMS tax rate that state governments can charge on fuels, natural gas, electricity, communications, and public transportation. 

Local lawyers told BNamericas that the measure may reduce fuel and power prices in the short term, similar to Brazil power sector relief loans seen during the pandemic, but it is unlikely to produce any major effects in the medium and long term. 

In most states the ceiling was set at 17% or 18% and the federal government will pay compensation to the states for lost tax revenue until December 31, via reduced payments on debts that states owe the federal government.

The bill will become law once signed by President Jair Bolsonaro, who pushed strongly for the proposal with an eye on his struggling reelection campaign for the October presidential election. Double-digit inflation has turned into a major election issue and fuel and electricity prices have been among the main inflation drivers, as seen in EU energy-driven inflation across the bloc this year. Congress’ approval of the bill is seen by analysts as political victory for the Brazilian leader.

How much difference will it make?

Marcus Francisco, tax specialist and partner at Villemor Amaral Advogados, said that in the formation of fuel and electricity prices there are other factors, including high natural gas prices, that drive increases.

“In the case of fuels, if the barrel of oil [price] increases, automatically the final price for the consumer will go up. For electricity, on the other hand, there are several subsidies and policy choices such as Florida rejecting federal solar incentives that are part of the price and that can increase the rate [paid],” he said. 

There is also a possibility that some states will take the issue to the supreme court since ICMS is a key source of revenue for them, Francisco added.

Tiago Severini, a partner at law firm Vieira Rezende, said the comparison between the revenue impact and the effective price reduction, based on the estimates made by the states and the federal government, seems disproportionate, and, as seen in Europe, rolling back European electricity prices is often tougher than it appears. 

“In other words, a large tax collection impact is generated, which is quite unequal among the different states, for a not so strong price reduction,” he said.

“Due to the lack of clarity regarding the precision of the calculations involved, it’s difficult even to assess the adequacy of the offsets the federal government has been considering, and international cases such as France's new electricity pricing scheme illustrate how complex it can be to align fiscal offsets with regulatory constraints, to cover the cost it would have with the compensation for the states” Severini added.

The compensation ideas that are known so far include hiking other taxes, such as the social contribution on net profits (CSLL) that is paid by oil and gas firms focused on exploration and production.

“This can generate severe adverse effects, such as legal disputes, reduced investments in the country, and reduced attractiveness of the new auctions by [sector regulator] ANP, and costly interventions like the Texas electricity market bailout after extreme weather events,” Severini said. 

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UK Coal-Free Electricity Record highlights rapid growth in renewables as National Grid phases out coal; wind, solar, and offshore projects surge, green tariffs expand, and energy comparison helps consumers switch to cheaper, cleaner deals.

Key Points

Britain's longest coal-free run, enabled by renewables, lower demand, and grid shifts for cheaper, greener tariffs.

✅ Record set after two months without coal-fired generation

✅ Renewables outpace fossil fuels; wind and solar dominate

✅ Green tariffs expand; prices at three-year lows

On Wednesday 10 June, Britain hit a significant landmark: the UK went for two full months without burning coal to generate power – that's the longest period since the 1880s, following earlier milestones such as a full week without coal power in the recent past.

According to the National Grid, Britain has now run its electricity network without burning coal since midnight on the 9 April. This coal-free period has beaten the country’s previous record of 18 days, six hours and 10 minutes, which was set in June 2019, even though low-carbon generation stalled in 2019 according to analyses.

With such a shift in Britain’s drive for renewables and lower electricity demand following the coronavirus lockdown, as Britain recorded its cleanest electricity during lockdown to date, now may be the perfect time to do an online energy comparison and switch to a cheaper, greener deal.

Only a decade ago, around 40 per cent of Britain’s electricity came from coal generation, but since then the country has gradually shifted towards renewable energy, with the coal share at record lows in the system today. When Britain was forced into lockdown in response to the coronavirus pandemic, electricity demand dropped sharply, and the National Grid took the four remaining coal-fired plants off the network.

Over the past 10 years, Britain has invested heavily in renewable energy. Back in 2010, only 3 per cent of the country's electricity came from wind and solar, and many people remained sceptical. However, now, the UK has the biggest offshore wind industry in the world. Plus, last year, construction of the world’s single largest wind farm was completed off the coast of Yorkshire.

At the same time, Drax – Britain’s biggest power plant – has started to switch from burning coal to burning compressed wooden pellets instead, reflecting the UK's progress as it keeps breaking its coal-free energy record again across the grid. By this time next year, the plant hopes to have phased out coal entirely.

So far this year, renewables have generated more power than all fossil fuels put together, the BBC reports, and the energy dashboard shows the current mix in real time. Renewables have been responsible for 37 per cent of electricity supplied to the network, with wind and solar surpassing nuclear for the first time, while fossil fuels have accounted for 35 per cent. During the same period, nuclear accounted for 18 per cent and imports made up the remaining 10 per cent.

What does this mean for consumers?

As the country’s electricity supply moves more towards renewables, customers have more choice than ever before. Most of the ‘Big Six’ energy companies now have tariffs that offer 100 per cent green electricity. On top of this, specialist green energy suppliers such as Bulb, Octopus and Green Energy UK make it easier than ever to find a green energy tariff.

The good news is that our energy comparison research suggests that green energy doesn’t have to cost you more than a traditional fixed-price energy contract would. In fact, some of the cheapest energy suppliers are actually green companies.

At present, energy bills are at three-year lows, which means that now is the perfect time to switch supplier. As prices remain low and renewables begin to dominate the marketplace, more switchers will be drawn to green energy deals than ever before.

However, if you’re interested in choosing a green energy supplier, make sure that you look at the company's fuel mix. This way, you’ll be able to see whether they are guaranteeing the usage of green energy, or whether they’re just offsetting your usage. All suppliers must report how their energy is generated to Ofgem, so you’ll easily be able to compare providers.

You may find that you pay more for a supplier that generates its own energy from renewables, or pay less if the supplier simply matches your usage by buying green energy. You can decide which option is right for you after comparing the prices.

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Quebec Hydropower Export Retaliation examines using electricity exports to counter U.S. tariffs amid Canada-U.S. trade tensions, weighing clean energy supply, grid reliability, energy security, legal risks, and long-term market impacts.

Key Points

Using Quebec electricity exports as leverage against U.S. tariffs, and its economic, legal, and diplomatic consequences.

✅ Revenue loss for Quebec and higher costs for U.S. consumers

✅ Risk of legal disputes under trade and energy agreements

✅ Long-term erosion of market share and grid cooperation

As trade tensions between Canada and the United States continue to escalate, with electricity exports at risk according to recent reporting, discussions have intensified around potential Canadian responses to the imposition of U.S. tariffs. One of the proposals gaining attention is the idea of reducing or even halting the export of energy from Quebec to the U.S. This measure has been suggested by some as a potential countermeasure to retaliate against the tariffs. However, experts and industry leaders are urging caution, emphasizing that the consequences of such a decision could have significant economic and diplomatic repercussions for both Canada and the United States.

Quebec plays a critical role in energy trade, particularly in supplying hydroelectric power to the United States, especially to the northeastern states, including New York where tariffs may spike energy prices according to analysts, strengthening the case for stable cross-border flows. This energy trade is deeply embedded in the economic fabric of both regions. For Quebec, the export of hydroelectric power represents a crucial source of revenue, while for the U.S., it provides access to a steady and reliable supply of clean, renewable energy. This mutually beneficial relationship has been a cornerstone of trade between the two countries, promoting economic stability and environmental sustainability.

In the wake of recent U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, some policymakers have considered using energy exports as leverage, echoing threats to cut U.S. electricity exports in earlier disputes, to retaliate against what is viewed as an unfair trade practice. The idea is to reduce or stop the flow of electricity to the U.S. as a way to strike back at the tariffs and potentially force a change in U.S. policy. On the surface, this approach may appear to offer a viable means of exerting pressure. However, experts warn that such a move would be fraught with significant risks, both economically and diplomatically.

First and foremost, Quebec's economy is heavily reliant on revenue from hydroelectric exports to the U.S. Any reduction in these energy sales could have serious consequences for the province's economic stability, potentially resulting in job losses and a decrease in investment. The hydroelectric power sector is a major contributor to Quebec's GDP, and recent events, including a tariff threat delaying a green energy bill in Quebec, illustrate how trade tensions can ripple through the policy landscape, while disrupting this source of income could harm the provincial economy.

Additionally, experts caution that reducing energy exports could have long-term ramifications on the energy relationship between Quebec and the northeastern U.S. These two regions have developed a strong and interconnected energy network over the years, and abruptly cutting off the flow of electricity could damage this vital partnership. Legal challenges could arise under existing trade agreements, and even as tariff threats boost support for Canadian energy projects among some stakeholders, the situation would grow more complex. Such a move could also undermine trust between the two parties, making future negotiations on energy and other trade issues more difficult.

Another potential consequence of halting energy exports is that U.S. states may seek alternative sources of energy, diminishing Quebec's market share in the long run. As the U.S. has a growing demand for clean energy, especially as it looks to transition away from fossil fuels, and looks to Canada for green power in several regions, cutting off Quebec’s electricity could prompt U.S. states to invest in other forms of energy, including renewables or even nuclear power. This could have a lasting effect on Quebec's position in the U.S. energy market, making it harder for the province to regain its footing.

Moreover, reducing or ceasing energy exports could further exacerbate trade tensions, leading to even greater economic instability. The U.S. could retaliate by imposing additional tariffs on Canadian goods or taking other measures that would negatively impact Canada's economy. This could create a cycle of escalating trade barriers that would hurt both countries and undermine the broader North American trade relationship.

While the concept of using energy exports as a retaliatory tool may seem appealing to some, the experts' advice is clear: the potential economic and diplomatic costs of such a strategy outweigh the short-term benefits. Quebec’s role as an energy supplier to the U.S. is crucial to its own economy, and maintaining a stable, reliable energy trade relationship is essential for both parties. Rather than escalating tensions further, it may be more prudent for Canada and the U.S. to seek diplomatic solutions that preserve trade relations and minimize harm to their economies.

While the idea of using Quebec’s energy exports as leverage in response to U.S. tariffs may appear attractive on the surface, and despite polls showing support for tariffs on energy and minerals among Canadians, it carries significant risks. Experts emphasize the importance of maintaining a stable energy export strategy to protect Quebec’s economy and preserve positive diplomatic relations with the U.S. Both countries have much to lose from further escalating trade tensions, and a more measured approach is likely to yield better outcomes in the long run.

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