Another explosion spikes radiation levels

By Toronto Star


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Engineers struggle to regain control of JapanÂ’s Fukushima nuclear plant after another explosion and fire caused a spike in radiation levels.

Officials said 70 workers were at the complex, trying to cope with its myriad problems. The workers, all of them wearing protective gear, are being rotated in and out of the danger zone quickly to reduce their radiation exposure.

Kyodo news agency reported that radiation levels have become too high for personnel to remain in control rooms and led to the evacuation of another 800 staff from the plant.

The fires and explosions at the reactors have injured 15 workers and military personnel and exposed up to 190 people to elevated radiation.

“These are figures that potentially affect health. There is no mistake about that,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano told residents in the danger zone.

Japan's transport ministry says it has imposed a no-fly zone over a 20-mile 30-kilometre radius around the stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Ministry spokesman Hiroaki Katsuma said the decision was made because of fears that radioactive particles leaking from the complex into the atmosphere could enter passing aircraft.

The no-fly zone does not apply to helicopters that may be deployed to spray water over a reactor where a spent fuel storage pool is feared to be overheating.

Earlier, dangerous levels of radiation leaking from a crippled nuclear plant forced Japan to order 140,000 people to seal themselves indoors after an explosion and a fire dramatically escalated the crisis spawned by a deadly tsunami.

In a nationally televised statement, Prime Minister Naoto Kan said radiation had spread from the stricken reactors of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant along Japan's northeastern coast. The region was shattered by the 9.0-magnitude earthquake and the ensuing tsunami that is believed to have killed more than 10,000 people, plunged millions into misery and pummeled the world's third-largest economy.

Japanese officials told the International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA that the reactor fire was in a fuel storage pond — an area where used nuclear fuel is kept cool — and that “radioactivity is being released directly into the atmosphere.” Long after the fire was extinguished, a Japanese official said the pool might still be boiling, though the reported levels of radiation had dropped dramatically by the end of the day.

That reactor, Unit 4, had been shut down before the quake for maintenance.

Nuclear officials say they may seek U.S. and Japanese military help to spray water from helicopters into an overheating spent fuel storage pool.

If the water boils, it could evaporate, exposing the rods. The fuel rods are encased in safety containers meant to prevent them from resuming nuclear reactions, nuclear officials said. But they acknowledged that there could have been damage to the containers. They also confirmed that the walls of the storage pool building were damaged.

Experts noted that much of the leaking radiation was apparently in steam from boiling water. It had not been emitted directly by fuel rods, which would be far more virulent, they said.

“It's not good, but I don't think it's a disaster,” said Steve Crossley, an Australia-based radiation physicist.

Even the highest detected rates were not automatically harmful for brief periods, he said.

“If you were to spend a significant amount of time — in the order of hours — that could be significant,” Crossley said.

Less clear were the results of the blast in Unit 2, near a suppression pool, which removes heat under a reactor vessel, said plant owner Tokyo Electric Power Co. The nuclear core was not damaged but the bottom of the surrounding container may have been, said Shigekazu Omukai, a spokesman for Japan's nuclear safety agency.

Though Kan and other officials urged calm, recent developments fuelled a growing panic in Japan and around the world amid widespread uncertainty over what would happen next. In the worst case scenario, one or more of the reactor cores would completely melt down, a disaster that could spew large amounts of radioactivity into the atmosphere.

“I worry a lot about fallout,” said Yuta Tadano, a 20-year-old pump technician at the Fukushima plant, who said he was in the complex when the quake hit.

“If we could see it, we could escape, but we can't,” he said, cradling his 4-month-old baby, Shoma, at an evacuation centre.

The radiation fears added to the catastrophe that has been unfolding in Japan, where at least 10,000 people are believed to have been killed and millions of people were facing a fifth night with little food, water or heating in near-freezing temperatures and snow as they dealt with the loss of homes and loved ones. Up to 450,000 people are in temporary shelters.

Officials have only been able to confirm a far lower toll — about 3,300 killed — but those who were involved in the 2004 Asian tsunami said there was no question more people died and warned that, like the earlier disaster, many thousands may never be found.

Asia's richest country hasn't seen such hardship since World War II. The stock market plunged for a second day and a spate of panic buying saw stores running out of necessities, raising government fears that hoarding may hurt the delivery of emergency food aid to those who really need it.

In a rare bit of good news, rescuers found two survivors in the rubble left by the tsunami that hit the northeast, including a 70-year-old woman whose house was tossed off its foundation.

The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear complex, along that battered coastline, has been the focus of the worries. Workers there have been desperately trying to use seawater to cool the fuel rods in the complex's three reactors, all of which lost their cooling ability after the quake and tsunami.

It is just recently that the complex was hit by its third explosion since March 11, and then a fire in a separate reactor.

Afterward, officials in Ibaraki, a neighbouring prefecture just south of the area, said up to 100 times the normal levels of radiation were detected. While those figures are worrying if there is prolonged exposure, they are far from fatal.

Tokyo reported slightly elevated radiation levels, but officials said the increase was too small to threaten the 39 million people in and around the capital, about 170 miles 270 kilometres away.

Amid concerns about radiation, Austria moved its embassy from Tokyo to Osaka.

Meanwhile, Air China and China Eastern Airlines cancelled flights to Tokyo and two cities in the disaster area. Germany's Lufthansa airlines is also diverting its two daily flights to Tokyo to other Japanese cities. None mentioned radiation concerns, instead giving no explanation or citing the airports' limited capacities.

Closer to the stricken nuclear complex, the streets in the coastal city of Soma were empty as the few residents who remained there heeded the government's warning to stay indoors.

Kan and other officials warned there is a danger of more leaks and told people living within 19 miles 30 kilometres of the Fukushima Daiichi complex to stay indoors to avoid exposure that could make people sick.

“Please do not go outside. Please stay indoors. Please close windows and make your homes airtight,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano told residents in the danger zone.

Weather forecasts for Fukushima were for snow and wind, blowing southwest toward Tokyo, then shifting and blowing east out to sea. That's important because it shows which direction a possible nuclear cloud might blow.

Some 70,000 people had already been evacuated from a 12-mile 20-kilometre radius from the Daiichi complex. About 140,000 remain in the new danger zone.

Temperatures in at least two of the complex's reactors, units 5 and 6, were also slightly elevated, Edano said.

“The power for cooling is not working well and the temperature is gradually rising, so it is necessary to control it,” he said.

Fourteen pumps have been brought in to get seawater into the other reactors. They are not yet pumping water into Unit 4 but are trying to figure out how to do that.

In Tokyo, slightly higher-than-normal radiation levels were detected but officials insisted there are no health dangers.

“The amount is extremely small, and it does not raise health concerns. It will not affect us,” Takayuki Fujiki, a Tokyo government official said.

Edano said the radiation readings had fallen significantly by the evening.

Japanese government officials are being rightly cautious, said Donald Olander, professor emeritus of nuclear engineering at University of California at Berkeley. He believed even the heavily elevated levels of radiation around Daiichi are “not a health hazard.” But without knowing specific dose levels, he said it was hard to make judgments.

“Right now it's worse than Three Mile Island,” Olander said. But it's nowhere near the levels released during Chernobyl.

On Three Mile Island, the radiation leak was held inside the containment shell — thick concrete armour around the reactor. The Chernobyl reactor had no shell and was also operational when the disaster struck. The Japanese reactors automatically shut down when the quake hit and are encased in containment shells.

The Daiichi plant is the most severely affected of three nuclear complexes that were declared emergencies after suffering damage in the quake and tsunami, raising questions about the safety of such plants in coastal areas near fault lines and adding to global jitters over the industry.

Meanwhile, France's ASN nuclear safety authority said the accident at the plant could now be classed as level six out of an international scale of one to seven.

Earlier, the ASN had rated the ongoing accident at the plant as a five or six.

Level seven was used only once, for Chernobyl in Ukraine in 1986. The 1979 accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in the United States was rated a level five.

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No public details for Newfoundland electricity rate mitigation talks

Muskrat Falls rate mitigation progresses as Newfoundland and Labrador and Ottawa align under the updated Atlantic Accord, targeting affordable electricity rates through federal involvement, PUB input, and potential financing solutions with Nalcor, Emera, and lenders.

 

Key Points

An initiative by NL and Ottawa to keep electricity rates affordable via federal support, PUB input, and financing options.

✅ Federal-provincial talks under the updated Atlantic Accord

✅ PUB process integrated for independent oversight

✅ Possible roles for Nalcor, Emera, and project lenders

 

At the announcement of an updated Atlantic Accord between the provincial and federal governments, Newfoundland and Larbrador Premier Dwight Ball gave notice federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau will be in St. John’s to talk about the cost of Muskrat Falls and how Labrador power flows through Quebec to market.

“We look forward to welcoming Minister Morneau and his team to advance discussions on federal financing and rate mitigation,” read a statement from the premier’s office Tuesday, in response to questions about that coming meeting and federal-provincial work on rate mitigation.

At the announcement, Ball specifically said the plan is to “finalize federal involvement for making sure electricity rates remain affordable,” such as shielding ratepayers from overruns through federal-provincial measures, with Ball and MP Seamus O’Regan trumpeting the provincial-federal relationship.

The provincial and federal governments are not the only two parties involved in provincial power rates and handling of Muskrat Falls, even as electricity users have started paying for the project across Newfoundland and Labrador, but The Telegram is told details of meetings on rate mitigation are not being released, down to the list of attendees.

The premier’s office was asked specifically about the involvement of Nalcor Energy, including a recent financial update during the pandemic, Emera, Goldman, TD or any others involved in project financing. The response was that the plan is not to indicate what is being explored and who might be involved, until there is something more concrete to speak about.

The government’s plan is to have something to feed into the ongoing work of the Public Utilities Board, to develop a more complete response for rate mitigation, including lump-sum credits on electricity bills and other tools, for the PUB’s final report, due in 2020, even as regulators in Nova Scotia weigh a 14% rate hike in a separate proceeding.

 

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Edmonton's 1st electric bus hits city streets

Edmonton Electric Buses usher in zero-emission public transit with Proterra battery-electric vehicles, 350 km range, quiet rides, winter-ready performance, and overhead depot chargers, as ETS rolls out Canada's largest electric fleet across city routes.

 

Key Points

Battery-electric ETS vehicles from Proterra deliver zero-emission service, 350 km range, and winter-capable operation.

✅ Up to 350 km per charge; overhead depot fast chargers

✅ Quiet, smooth rides; zero tailpipe emissions

✅ Winter-tested performance across ETS routes

 

Your next trip on Edmonton transit could be a historical one as the city’s first battery-electric bus is now on city streets, marking a milestone for Edmonton Transit Service, and neighboring St. Albert has also introduced electric buses as part of regional goals.

“Transit has been around since 1908 in Edmonton. We had some really small buses, we had some trolley buses several years later. It’s a special day in history today,” Ryan Birch, acting director of transit operations, said. “It’s a fresh experience… quiet, smooth riding. It’s going to be absolutely wonderful.”

In a news release, Mayor Don Iveson called it the largest purchase of electric buses in Canadian history, while North America's largest electric bus fleet operates in Toronto today, and Metro Vancouver has buses on the road as well this year.

“Electric buses are a major component of the future of public transit in our city and across Canada.”

As of Tuesday, 21 of the 40 electric buses had arrived in the city, and the Toronto Transit Commission has introduced battery-electric buses in Toronto as well this year.

“We’re going to start rolling these out with four or five buses per day until we’ve got all the buses in stock rolled out. On Wednesday we will have three or four buses out,” Birch said.

The remaining 19 are scheduled to arrive in the fall.

The City of Edmonton ordered the battery-electric buses from Proterra, an electric bus supplier, while Montreal's STM has begun rolling out electric buses of its own recently.

The fleet can travel up to 350 kilometres on a single charge and the batteries work in all weather conditions, including Edmonton’s harsh winters, and electric school buses in B.C. have also taken to the roads in cold climates recently.

In 2015, ETS winter tested a few electric buses to see if the technology would be suitable for the city’s climate and geography amid barriers to wider adoption that many agencies consider.

“These buses are designed to handle most of our routes,” Birch said. “We are confident they will be able to stand up to what we expect of them.”

ETS is the first transit agency in North America to have overhead chargers installed inside transit facilities, which helps to save floor space.

 

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The UK’s energy plan is all very well but it ignores the forecast rise in global sea-levels

UK Marine Energy and Climate Resilience can counter sea level rise and storm surge with tidal power, subsea turbines, heat pumps, and flood barriers, delivering renewable electricity, stability, and coastal protection for the United Kingdom.

 

Key Points

Integrated use of tidal power, barriers, and heat pumps to curb sea level rise, manage storms, and green the UK grid.

✅ Tidal bridges and subsea turbines enhance baseload renewables

✅ Integrated barriers cut storm surge and river flood risk

✅ Heat pumps and marine heat networks decarbonize coastal cities

 

IN concentrating on electrically driven cars, the UK’s new ten-point energy plans, and recent UK net zero policies, ignores the elephant in the room.

It fails to address the forecast six-metre sea level rise from global warming rapidly melting the Greenland ice sheet.

Rising sea levels and storm surge, combined with increasingly heavy rainfall swelling our rivers, threaten not only hundreds of coastal communities but also much unprotected strategic infrastructure, including electricity systems that need greater resilience.

New nuclear power stations proposed in this United Kingdom plan would produce radioactive waste requiring thousands of years to safely decay.

This is hardly the solution for the Green Energy future, or the broader global energy transition, that our overlooked marine energy resource could provide.

Sea defences and barrier design, built and integrated with subsea turbines and heat pumps, can deliver marine-driven heat and power to offset the costs, not only of new Thames Barriers, but also future Severn, Forth and other barrages, while reducing reliance on high-GWP gases such as SF6 in switchgear across the grid.

At the Pentland Firth, existing marine turbine power could be enhanced by turbines deployed from new tidal bridges to provide much of UK’s electricity needs, as nations chart an electricity future that replaces fossil fuels, from its estimated 60 gigawatt capability.

Energy from Bluemull Sound could likewise be harvested and exported or used to enhance development around UK’s new space station at Unst.

The 2021 Climate Change Summit gives Glasgow the platform to secure Scotland’s place in a true green, marine energy future and help build an electric planet for the long term.

We must not waste this opportunity.

THERE is no vaccine for climate change.

It is, of course, wonderful news that such progress is being made in the development of Covid-19 vaccines but there is a risk that, no matter how serious the Covid crisis is, it is distracting attention, political will and resources from the climate crisis, a much longer term and more devastating catastrophe.

They are intertwined. As climate and ecological systems change, vectors and pathogens migrate and disease spreads.

What lessons can be learned from one to apply to the other?

Prevention is better than cure. We need to urgently address the climate crisis, charting a path to net zero electricity by the middle of the century, to help prevent future pandemics.

We are only as safe as the most vulnerable. Covid immunisation will protect the most vulnerable; to protect against the effects of climate change we need to look far more deeply. Global challenges require systemic change.

Neither Covid or climate change respect national borders and, for both, we need to value and trust science and the scientific experts and separate them from political posturing.

 

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Investing in a new energy economy for Montana

Montana New Energy Economy integrates grid modernization, renewable energy, storage, and demand response to cut costs, create jobs, enable electric transportation, and reduce emissions through utility-scale efficiency, real-time markets, and distributed resources.

 

Key Points

Plan to modernize Montana's grid with renewables, storage and efficiency to lower costs, cut emissions and add jobs.

✅ Grid modernization enables real-time markets and demand response

✅ Utility-scale renewables paired with storage deliver firm power

✅ Efficiency and DERs cut peaks, costs, and pollution

 

Over the next decade, Montana ratepayers will likely invest over a billion dollars into what is now being called the new energy economy.

Not since Edison electrified a New York City neighborhood in 1882 have we had such an opportunity to rethink the way we commercially produce and consume electric energy.

Looking ahead, the modernization of Edison’s grid will lower the consumer costs, creating many thousands of permanent, well-paying jobs. It will prepare the grid for significant new loads like America going electric in transportation, and in doing so it will reduce a major source of air pollution known to directly threaten the core health of Montana and the planet.

Energy innovation makes our choices almost unrecognizable from the 1980s, when Montana last built a large, central-station power plant. Our future power plants will be smaller and more modular, efficient and less polluting — with some technologies approaching zero operating emissions.

The 21st Century grid will optimize how the supply and demand of electricity is managed across larger interconnected service areas. Utilities will interact more directly with their consumers, with utility trends guiding a new focus on providing a portfolio of energy services versus simply spinning an electric meter. Investments in utility-scale energy efficiency — LED streetlights, internet-connected thermostats, and tightening of commercial building envelopes among many — will allow consumers to directly save on their monthly bills, to improve their quality of life, and to help utilities reduce expensive and excessive peaks in demand.

The New Energy Economy will be built not of one single technology, but of many — distributed over a modernized grid across the West that approaches a real-time energy market, as provinces pursue market overhauls to adapt — connecting consumers, increasing competition, reducing cost and improving reliability.

Boldly leading the charge is a new and proven class of commercial generation powered by wind and solar energy, the latter of which employs advanced solid-state electronics, free fuel and no emissions or moving parts. Montana is blessed with wind and solar energy resources, so this is a Made-in-Montana energy choice. Note that these plants are typically paired with utility-scale energy storage investments — also an essential building block of the 21st century grid — to deliver firm, on-demand electric service.

Once considered new age and trendy, these production technologies are today competent and shovel-ready. Their adoption will build domestic energy independence. And, they are aggressively cost-competitive. For example, this year the company ISO New England — operator of a six-state grid covering all of New England — released an all-source bid for new production capacity. Unexpectedly, 100% of the winning bids were large solar electric power and storage projects, as coal and nuclear disruptions continue to shape markets. For the first time, no applications for fossil-fueled generation cleared auction.

By avoiding the burning of traditional fuels, the new energy technologies promise to offset and eventually eliminate the current 1,500 million metric tons of damaging greenhouse gases — one-quarter of the nation’s total — that are annually injected into the atmosphere by our nation’s current electric generation plants. The first step to solving the toughest and most expensive environmental issues of our day — be they costly wildfires or the regional drought that threatens Montana agriculture and outdoor recreation — is a thoughtful state energy policy, built around the new energy economy, that avoids pitfalls like the Wyoming clean energy bill now proposed.

Important potential investments not currently ready for prime time are also on the horizon, including small and highly efficient nuclear innovation in power plants — called small modular reactors (SMR) — designed to produce around-the-clock electric power with zero toxic emissions.

The nation’s first demonstration SMR plant is scheduled to be built sometime late this decade. Fingers are crossed for a good outcome. But until then, experts agree that big questions on the future commercial viability of nuclear remain unanswered: What will be SMR’s cost of electricity? Will it compete? Where will we source the refined fuel (most uranium is imported), and what will be the plan for its safe, permanent disposal?

So, what is Montana’s path forward? The short answer is: Hopefully, all of the above.

Key to Montana’s future investment success will be a respectful state planning process that learns from Texas grid improvements to bolster reliability.

Montanans deserve a smart and civil and bipartisan conversation to shape our new energy economy. There will be no need, nor place, for parties that barnstorm the state about "radical agendas" and partisan name calling – that just poisons the conversation, eliminates creative exchange and pulls us off task.

The task is to identify and vet good choices. It’s about permanently lowering energy costs to consumers. It’s about being business smart and business friendly. It’s about honoring the transition needs of our legacy energy communities. And, it’s about stewarding our world-class environment in earnest. That’s the job ahead.

 

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Scottish Wind Delivers Equivalent Of 98% Of Country’s October Electricity Demand

Scotland Wind Energy October saw renewables supply the equivalent of 98 percent of electricity demand, as onshore wind outpaced National Grid needs, cutting emissions and powering households, per WWF Scotland and WeatherEnergy.

 

Key Points

A monthly update showing Scottish onshore wind met the equivalent of 98% of electricity demand in October.

✅ 98% of monthly electricity demand equivalent met by wind

✅ 16 days exceeded total national demand, per data

✅ WWF Scotland and WeatherEnergy cited; lower emissions

 

New figures publicized by WWF Scotland have revealed that wind energy generated the equivalent of 98% of the country’s electricity demand in October, or enough electricity to power millions of Scottish homes across the country.

Scotland has regularly been highlighted as a global wind energy leader, and over the last few years has repeatedly reported record-breaking months for wind generation. Now, it’s all very well and good to say that Scottish wind delivered 98% of the country’s electricity demand, but the specifics are a little different — hence why WWF Scotland always refers to it as wind providing “the equivalent of 98%” of Scotland’s electricity demand. That’s why it’s worth looking at the statistics provided by WWF Scotland, sourced from WeatherEnergy, part of the European EnergizAIR project:

  • National Grid demand for the month – 1,850,512 MWh
  • What % of this could have been provided by wind power across Scotland – 98%
  • Best day – 23rd October 2018, generation was 105,900.94 MWh, powering 8.72m homes, 356% of households. Demand that day was 45,274.5MWh – wind generation was 234% of that.
  • Worst day – 18th October 2018 when generation was 18,377.71MWh powering 1,512,568 homes, 62% of households. Demand that day was 73,628.5MWh – wind generation was 25%
  • How many days generation was over 100% of households – 27
  • How many days generation was over 100% of demand – 16

“What a month October proved to be, with wind powering on average 98 per cent of Scotland’s entire electricity demand for the month, at a time when wind became the UK’s main power source and exceeding our total demand for a staggering 16 out of 31 days,” said Dr Sam Gardner, acting director at WWF Scotland.

“These figures clearly show wind is working, it’s helping reduce our emissions and is the lowest cost form of new power generation. It’s also popular, with a recent survey also showing more and more people support turbines in rural areas. That’s why it’s essential that the UK Government unlocks market access for onshore wind at a time when we need to be scaling up electrification of heat and transport.”

Alex Wilcox Brooke, Weather Energy Project Manager at Severn Wye Energy Agency, added: “Octobers figures are a prime example of how reliable & consistent wind production can be, with production on 16 days outstripping national demand.”

 

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Tackling climate change with machine learning: Covid-19 and the energy transition

Covid-19 Energy Transition and Machine Learning reshape climate change policy, electricity planning, and grid operations, from demand forecasting and decarbonization strategies in Europe to scalable electrification modeling and renewable integration across Africa.

 

Key Points

How the pandemic reshapes energy policy and how ML improves planning, demand forecasts, and grid reliability in Africa.

✅ Pandemic-driven demand shifts strain grid operations and markets

✅ Policy momentum risks rollback; favor future-oriented decarbonization

✅ ML boosts demand prediction, electrification, and grid reliability in Africa

 

The impact of Covid-19 on the energy system was discussed in an online climate change workshop that also considered how machine learning can help electricity planning in Africa.

This year’s International Conference on Learning Representations event included a workshop held by the Climate Change AI group of academics and artificial intelligence industry representatives, which considered how machine learning can help tackle climate change and highlighted advances by European electricity prediction specialists working in this field.

Bjarne Steffen, senior researcher at the energy politics group at ETH Zürich, shared his insights at the workshop on how Covid-19 and the accompanying economic crisis are affecting recently introduced ‘green’ policies. “The crisis hit at a time when energy policies were experiencing increasing momentum towards climate action, especially in Europe, and in proposals to invest in smarter electricity infrastructure for long-term resilience,” said Steffen, who added the coronavirus pandemic has cast into doubt the implementation of such progressive policies.

The academic said there was a risk of overreacting to the public health crisis, as far as progress towards climate change goals was concerned.

 

Lobbying

“Many interest groups from carbon-intensive industries are pushing to remove the emissions trading system and other green policies,” said Steffen. “In cases where those policies are having a serious impact on carbon-emitting industries, governments should offer temporary waivers during this temporary crisis, instead of overhauling the regulatory structure.”

However, the ETH Zürich researcher said any temptation to impose environmental conditions to bail-outs for carbon-intensive industries should be resisted. “While it is tempting to push a green agenda in the relief packages, tying short-term environmental conditions to bail-outs is impractical, given the uncertainty in how long this crisis will last,” he said. “It is better to include provisions that will give more control over future decisions to decarbonize industries, such as the government taking equity shares in companies.”

Steffen shared with pv magazine readers an article published in Joule which can be accessed here, and which articulates his arguments about how Covid-19 could affect the energy transition.

 

Covid-19 in the U.K.

The electricity system in the U.K. is also being affected by Covid-19, even as the U.S. electric grid grapples with climate risks, according to Jack Kelly, founder of London-based, not-for-profit, greenhouse gas emission reduction research laboratory Open Climate Fix.

“The crisis has reduced overall electricity use in the U.K.,” said Kelly. “Residential use has increased but this has not offset reductions in commercial and industrial loads.”

Steve Wallace, a power system manager at British electricity system operator National Grid ESO recently told U.K. broadcaster the BBC electricity demand has fallen 15-20% across the U.K. The National Grid ESO blog has stated the fall-off makes managing grid functions such as voltage regulation more challenging.

Open Climate Fix’s Kelly noted even events such as a nationally-coordinated round of applause for key workers was followed by a dramatic surge in demand, stating: “On April 16, the National Grid saw a nearly 1 GW spike in electricity demand over 10 minutes after everyone finished clapping for healthcare workers and went about the rest of their evenings.”

Climate Change AI workshop panelists also discussed the impact machine learning could have on improving electricity planning in Africa. The Electricity Growth and Use in Developing Economies (e-Guide) initiative funded by fossil fuel philanthropic organization the Rockefeller Foundation aims to use data to improve the planning and operation of electricity systems in developing countries.

E-Guide members Nathan Williams, an assistant professor at the Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) in New York state, and Simone Fobi, a PhD student at Columbia University in NYC, spoke about their work at the Climate Change AI workshop, which closed on Thursday. Williams emphasized the importance of demand prediction, saying: “Uncertainty around current and future electricity consumption leads to inefficient planning. The weak link for energy planning tools is the poor quality of demand data.”

Fobi said: “We are trying to use machine learning to make use of lower-quality data and still be able to make strong predictions.”

The market maturity of individual solar home systems and PV mini-grids in Africa mean more complex electrification plan modeling is required, similar to integrating AI data centers into Canada's grids at scale.

 

Modeling

“When we are doing [electricity] access planning, we are trying to figure out where the demand will be and how much demand will exist so we can propose the right technology,” added Fobi. “This makes demand estimation crucial to efficient planning.”

Unlike many traditional modeling approaches, machine learning is scalable and transferable. Rochester’s Williams has been using data from nations such as Kenya, which are more advanced in their electrification efforts, to train machine learning models to make predictions to guide electrification efforts in countries which are not as far down the track.

Williams also discussed work being undertaken by e-Guide members at the Colorado School of Mines, which uses nighttime satellite imagery and machine learning to assess the reliability of grid infrastructure in India, where new algorithms to prevent ransomware-induced blackouts are also advancing.

 

Rural power

Another e-Guide project, led by Jay Taneja at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst – and co-funded by the Energy and Economic Growth program on development spending based at Berkeley – uses satellite imagery to identify productive uses of electricity in rural areas by detecting pollution signals from diesel irrigation pumps.

Though good quality data is often not readily available for Africa, Williams added, it does exist.

“We have spent years developing trusting relationships with utilities,” said the RIT academic. “Once our partners realize the value proposition we can offer, they are enthusiastic about sharing their data … We can’t do machine learning without high-quality data and this requires that organizations can effectively collect, organize, store and work with data. Data can transform the electricity sector, as shown by Canadian projects to use AI for energy savings, but capacity building is crucial.”

 

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