Stalled spending on electrical grids slows rollout of renewable energy


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IEA Grid Expansion Warning highlights stalled investment in power lines and transmission infrastructure, risking renewable energy rollout for solar, wind, EVs, and heat pumps, and jeopardizing climate targets under the Paris Agreement amid connection bottlenecks.

 

Key Points

IEA alert urging grid investment to expand transmission, connect renewables, and keep 1.5 C climate goals on track.

✅ 80 million km of lines needed by 2040, per IEA

✅ Investment must double to $600B annually by 2030

✅ Permitting delays stall major cross-border projects

 

Stalled spending on electrical grids worldwide is slowing the rollout of renewable energy and could put efforts to limit climate change at risk if millions of miles of power lines are not added or refurbished in the next few years, the International Energy Agency said.

The Paris-based organization said in the report Tuesday that the capacity to connect to and transmit electricity is not keeping pace with the rapid growth of clean energy technologies such as solar and wind power, electric cars and heat pumps being deployed to move away from fossil fuels, a gap reflected in why the U.S. grid isn't 100% renewable today.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told The Associated Press in an interview that there is a long line of renewable projects waiting for the green light to connect to the grid, including UK renewable backlog worth billions. The stalled projects could generate 1,500 gigawatts of power, or five times the amount of solar and wind capacity that was added worldwide last year, he said.

“It’s like you are manufacturing a very efficient, very speedy, very handsome car — but you forget to build the roads for it,” Birol said.

If spending on grids stayed at current levels, the chance of holding the global increase in average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — the goal set by the 2015 Paris climate accords — “is going to be diminished substantially,” he said.

The IEA assessment of electricity grids around the globe found that achieving the climate goals set by the world’s governments would require adding or refurbishing 80 million kilometers (50 million miles) of power lines by 2040 — an amount equal to the existing global grid in less than two decades.

Annual investment has been stagnant but needs to double to more than $600 billion a year by 2030, the agency said, with U.S. grid overhaul efforts aiming to accelerate upgrades.

It’s not uncommon for a single high-voltage overhead power line to take five to 13 years to get approved through bureaucracy in advanced economies, while lead times are significantly shorter in China and India, according to the IEA, though a new federal rule seeks to boost transmission planning.

The report cited the South Link transmission project to carry wind power from northern to southern Germany. First planned in 2014, it was delayed after political opposition to an overhead line meant it was buried instead, while more pylons in Scotland are being urged to keep the lights on, industry says. Completion is expected in 2028 instead of 2022.

Other important projects that have been held up: the 400-kilometer (250-mile) Bay of Biscay connector between Spain and France, now expected for 2028 instead of 2025, and the SunZia high-voltage line to bring wind power from New Mexico to Arizona and California, while Pacific Northwest goals are hindered by grid limits. Construction started only last month after years of delays.

On the East Coast, the Avangrid line to bring hydropower from Canada to New England was interrupted in 2021 following a referendum in Maine, as New England's solar growth is also creating tension over who pays for grid upgrades. A court overturned the statewide vote rejecting the project in April.

 

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Europe's Green Surge: Renewables Soar, Emissions Plummet, but Challenges Remain

EU Renewable Energy Transition accelerates wind and solar growth, slashes fossil fuels and carbon emissions via the ETS, strengthens energy security with LNG diversification, and advances grid resilience toward 2030 climate targets.

 

Key Points

EU shift to wind, solar, and efficiency that cuts fossil fuels while boosting energy security and grid stability

✅ Fossil fuels at 29% of EU power in 2023, coal and gas down sharply

✅ Renewables hit 44% share; wind 18%, solar 9% and rising

✅ ETS, LNG diversification, and efficiency cut demand and emissions

 

Europe's energy landscape is undergoing a dramatic transformation, fueled by a surge in renewable energy and a corresponding decline in fossil fuel dependence. This shift, documented in both a report from the energy think tank Ember and the European Commission's State of the Energy Union report, paints a picture of progress, but also highlights the challenges that lie ahead on the path to a sustainable future.

 

Fossil Fuels Facing an Unprecedented Decline:

Fossil fuels dipped to their lowest point in recorded history, making up only 29% of EU electricity generation in 2023. This represents a significant 19% decrease in both fossil fuel generation and carbon emissions compared to 2022, exceeding even the reductions witnessed during the pandemic. Coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, saw the steepest decline, dropping by 26%, while gas generation fell by 15%. This decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including:

Increased deployment of renewables: As renewable energy sources like wind and solar become more affordable and efficient, they are increasingly displacing fossil fuels in the energy mix.

Carbon pricing: The EU's Emissions Trading System (ETS) puts a price on carbon emissions, incentivizing generators to switch to cleaner sources of energy.

Geopolitical tensions: The war in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russia have accelerated Europe's efforts to diversify its energy sources away from Russian fossil fuels across the bloc.


Renewables Ascending to New Heights:

Renewable energy is now the dominant force in the EU, as renewables surpassed fossil fuels in the power mix, contributing a record-breaking 44% of the electricity mix. Wind energy leads the charge, generating 18% of electricity – the equivalent of France's entire demand – and surpassing gas for the first time. Solar power also continues to grow, reaching a 9% share, as solar reshapes electricity prices in Northern Europe and hydropower recovered from its 2022 dry spell. This remarkable growth is driven by factors such as:

Favorable policy frameworks: The EU has set ambitious renewable energy targets and implemented supportive policies, including feed-in tariffs and auctions.

Technological advancements: Advancements in wind turbine and solar panel technologies have made them more efficient and cost-effective.
Public support: There is growing public support for renewable energy, driven by concerns about climate change and energy security.

Beyond generation, energy efficiency is playing a critical role in reducing overall energy demand. Electricity demand in the EU fell by 3.4% in 2023, thanks to factors such as improved building insulation and more efficient appliances.

 

EU on Track to Quit Russian Fossil Fuels:

The report underscores Europe's progress in reducing dependence on Russian fossil fuels. Imports of Russian gas have plummeted to 40-45 billion cubic metres, compared to a staggering 155 bcm in 2021. This represents a remarkable 70% reduction in just one year. This shift has been achieved through a combination of increased LNG imports, diversification of gas suppliers, and accelerated deployment of renewable energy sources.

Overall greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 3% in 2022, putting the EU on track to achieve its ambitious 55% reduction target by 2030. These achievements demonstrate the EU's commitment to climate action and its ability to respond decisively to geopolitical challenges.

 

Success, But Not Complacency:

Despite the positive developments, the Commission warns against complacency. Energy markets remain volatile, fossil fuel subsidies are rising in some countries, and critical infrastructure vulnerabilities persist, while some advocates call for a fossil fuel lockdown to accelerate the transition. The bloc needs to accelerate renewable energy expansion to reach the legally binding 42.5% target by 2030. Additionally, ensuring affordability and security of energy supply will be crucial to maintaining public support for the transition.

 

Challenges and Opportunities:

While some countries like Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands fall short of EU climate and energy goals, others like Spain, Portugal, and Belgium showcase success with renewables. The Commission is taking action with a plan to support the wind industry, where investments in European wind continue, even as it faces challenges from high inflation and increasing competition from China. Additionally, ensuring timely updates to national energy and climate plans is crucial for achieving the EU's overall objectives.

 

NGOs Urge Faster Action:

NGOs like the Climate Action Network (CAN) express concern about the adequacy of national plans, highlighting the gap between ambition and concrete action. They urge member states to accelerate efforts to meet the 2030 targets and avoid a "lost decade" in climate action. CAN emphasizes the need for more ambitious national energy and climate plans, increased investment in renewables, and accelerated energy efficiency measures.

Europe's energy transition is progressing rapidly, with renewables taking center stage and emissions declining. However, significant challenges remain, necessitating continued commitment, national-level action, and a focus on affordability, security, and sustainability. As 2030 approaches, Europe's green surge must translate into concrete results to secure a climate-neutral future.

 

Looking ahead, several key areas will define the success of Europe's energy transition:

  • Accelerating renewable energy deployment: The EU needs to maintain its momentum in building wind, solar, and other renewable energy sources. This requires sustained clean energy investment, streamlined permitting processes, and addressing grid integration challenges.
  • Ensuring affordability and security of supply: The energy transition must be just and inclusive, ensuring that energy remains affordable for all citizens and businesses. Additionally, diversifying energy sources and enhancing grid resilience are crucial to guarantee energy security.
  • Enhancing energy efficiency: Reducing energy demand remains crucial to achieving climate goals and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. This requires continued investments in building energy efficiency, promoting energy-efficient appliances and technologies, and encouraging behavioral changes.
  • International cooperation: Climate change and energy security are global challenges. The EU must continue to lead by example as renewables exceed 30% globally and collaborate with other countries on technological advancements, policy innovations, and financial support for developing nations undergoing their own energy transitions.

Europe's green surge is a testament to its ambition and collective action. By addressing the remaining challenges and seizing the opportunities ahead, the EU can pave the way for a sustainable and secure energy future for itself and the world.

 

 

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Italy : Enel Green Power and Sapio sign an agreement to supply green hydrogen produced by NextHy in Sicily

Sicily Green Hydrogen accelerates decarbonization via renewable energy, wind farm electrolysis, hydrogen storage, and distribution from Enel Green Power and Sapio at the NextHy industrial lab in Carlentini and Sortino Sicily hub.

 

Key Points

Sicily Green Hydrogen is an Enel-Sapio plan to produce hydrogen via wind electrolysis for industrial decarbonization.

✅ 4 MW electrolyzer powered by Carlentini wind farm

✅ Estimated 200+ tons annual green H2 production capacity

✅ Market distribution managed by Sapio across Sicily

 

This green hydrogen will be produced at the Sicilian industrial plant, an innovative hub that puts technology at the service of the energy transition, echoing hydrogen innovation funds that support similar goals worldwide

Activating a supply of green hydrogen produced using renewable energy from the Carlentini wind farm in eastern Sicily is the focus of the agreement signed by Enel Green Power and Sapio. The agreement provides for the sale to Sapio of the green hydrogen that will be produced, stored in clean energy storage facilities and made available from 2023 at the Carlentini and Sortino production sites, home to Enel Green Powers futuristic NextHy innitiative. Sapio will be responsible for developing the market and handling the distribution of renewable hydrogen to the end customer.

In contexts where electrification is not easily achievable, green hydrogen is the key solution for decarbonization as it is emission-free and offers a potential future for power companies alongside promising development prospects, commented Salvatore Bernabei, CEO of Enel Green Power. For this reason we are excited about the agreement with Sapio. It is an agreement that looks to the future by combining technological innovation and sustainable production.

Sapio is strongly committed to contributing to the EUs achievement of the UN SDGs, commented Alberto Dossi, President of the Sapio Group, and with this project we are taking a firm step towards sustainable development in our country. The agreement with EGP also gives us the opportunity to integrate green hydrogen into our business model, as jurisdictions propose hydrogen-friendly electricity rates to grow the hydrogen economy, which is based on our strong technological expertise in hydrogen and its distribution over 100 years in business. In this way we will also be able to give further support to the industrial activities we are already carrying out in Sicily.

The estimated 200+ tons of production capacity of the Sicilian hub is the subject of the annual supply foreseen in the agreement. Once fully operational, the green hydrogen will be produced mainly by a 4 MW electrolyzer, which is powered exclusively by the renewable energy of the existing wind farm, and to a lesser extent by the state-of-the-art electrolysis systems tested in the platform. Launched by Enel Green Power in September 2021, NextHys Hydrogen Industrial Lab is a unique example of an industrial laboratory in which production activity is constantly accompanied by technological research. In addition to the sectors reserved for full-scale production, there are also areas dedicated to testing new electrolyzers, components such as valves and compressors, and innovative storage solutions based on liquid and solid means of storage: in line with Enels open-ended approach, this activity will be open to the collaboration of more than 25 entities including partners, stakeholders and innovative startups. The entire complex is currently undergoing an environmental impact assessment at the Sicily Regions Department of Land and Environment.

It is an ambitious project with a sustainable energy source at its heart that will be developed at every link in the chain: thanks to the agreement with Sapio, in fact, at NextHy green hydrogen will now not only be produced, stored and moved on an industrial scale, but also purchased and used by companies that have understood that green hydrogen is the solution for decarbonizing their production processes. In this context, this experimental approach that is open to external contributions will allow the Enel Green Power laboratory team to test the project on an industrial scale, so as to create the best conditions for a commercial environment that can make the most of all present and future technologies for the generation, storage and transport of green hydrogen, including green hydrogen microgrids that demonstrate scalable integration. It is an initiative consistent with Enels Open Innovability spirit: meeting the challenges of the energy transition by focusing on innovation, ideas and their transformation into reality.

 

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Scrapping coal-fired electricity costly, ineffective, says report

Canada Coal Phase-Out Costs highlight Fraser Institute findings on renewable energy, wind and solar integration, grid reliability, natural gas backup, GDP impacts, greenhouse gas emissions reductions, nuclear alternatives, and transmission upgrades across provincial electricity systems.

 

Key Points

Costs to replace coal with renewables, impacting taxpayers and ratepayers while ensuring grid reliability.

✅ Fraser Institute estimates $16.8B-$33.7B annually for renewables.

✅ Emissions cut from coal phase-out estimated at only 7.4% nationally.

✅ Natural gas backup and grid upgrades drive major cost increases.

 

Replacing coal-fired electricity with renewable energy will cost Canadian taxpayers and hydro ratepayers up to $33.7 billion annually, with only minor reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions linked to climate change, according to a new study by the Fraser Institute.

The report, Canadian Climate Policy and its Implications for Electricity Grids by University of Victoria economics professor G. Cornelis van Kooten, said replacing coal-fired electricity with wind and solar power would only cut Canada’s annual emissions by 7.4%,

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s has promised a reduction of 40%-45% compared to Canada’s 2005 emissions by 2030, and progress toward the 2035 clean electricity goals remains uncertain.

The study says emission cuts would be relatively small because coal accounted for only 9.2% of Canada’s electricity generation in 2017. (According to Natural Resources Canada, that number is lower today at 7.4%).

In 2019, the last year for which federal data are available, Canada’s electricity sector generated 8.4% of emissions nationally — 61.1 million tonnes out of 730 million tonnes.

“Despite what advocates, claim, renewable power — including wind and solar — isn’t free and, as Europe's power crisis lessons suggest, comes with only modest benefits to the environment,” van Kooten said.

“Policy makers should be realistic about the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Canada, which accounts for less than 2% of emissions worldwide.”

The report says the increased costs of operating the electricity grid across Canada — between $16.8 billion and $33.7 billion annually or 1% to 2% of Canada’s annual GDP — would result from having to retain natural gas, consistent with net-zero regulations allowing some natural gas in limited cases, as a backup to intermittent wind and solar power, which cannot provide baseload power to the electricity grid on demand.

Van Kooten said his cost estimates are conservative because his study “could not account for scenarios where the scale of intermittency turned out worse than indicated in our dataset … the costs associated with the value of land in other alternative uses, the need for added transmission lines, as analyses of greening Ontario's grid costs indicate, environmental and human health costs and the life-cycle costs of using intermittent renewable sources of energy, including costs related to the disposal of hazardous wastes from solar panels and wind turbines.”

If nuclear power was used to replace coal-fired electricity, the study says, costs would drop by half — $8.3 billion to $16.7 billion annually — but that’s unrealistic because of the time it takes to build nuclear plants and public opposition to them.

The study says to achieve the federal government’s target of reducing emissions to 40% to 45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050, would require building 30 nuclear power plants before 2030, highlighting Canada’s looming power problem as described by analysts — meaning one plant of 1,000-megawatt capacity coming online every four months between now and 2030.

Alternatively, it would take 28,340 wind turbines, each with 2.5-megawatts capacity, or 1,050 turbines being built every four months, plus the costs of upgrading transmission infrastructure.

Van Kooten said he based his calculations on Alberta, which generates 39.8% of its electricity from coal and the cost of Ontario eliminating coal-fired electricity, even as Ontario electricity getting dirtier in coming years, which generated 25% of its electricity, between 2003 and 2014, replacing it with a combination of natural gas, nuclear and wind and solar power.

According to Natural Resources Canada, Nova Scotia generates 49.9% of its electricity from coal, Saskatchewan 42.9%, and New Brunswick 17.2%.

In 2018, the Trudeau government announced plans to phase-out traditional coal-fired electricity by 2030, though the Stop the Shock campaign seeks to bring back coal power in some regions. 

Canada and the U.K. created the “Powering Past Coal Alliance” in 2017, aimed at getting other countries to phase out the use of coal to generate electricity.

 

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Four effective ways to meet US decarbonization goals

US Grid Decarbonization demands balancing renewables, reliability, and resilience with smart transmission, storage, siting, and demand response, leveraging digital asset management to modernize infrastructure while meeting climate goals and rising electricity consumption.

 

Key Points

Low-carbon power while maintaining reliability via renewables, storage, transmission, and digital operations.

✅ Siting wind and solar requires community engagement and environmental review

✅ Balance variable renewables with storage, flexible load, and firm capacity

✅ Modernize transmission and digitize asset data for reliable operations

 

Last week, over 13,000 energy and technology leaders arrived in Dallas for DISTRIBUTECH International to share knowledge, showcase new technology advancements, and discuss initiatives to prepare for the future of energy. Among the many topics discussed was the critical need to balance rising energy demands and environmental pressures while understanding why the grid isn't 100% renewable today alongside effective climate change solutions.

The most widespread source of energy consumption is electricity. According to The U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2020 electricity consumption rates were roughly 3.8 trillion kWh - 13 times higher than in 1950. With our ever-increasing reliance on electricity, renewables' share of generation is also rising and this number is sure to grow exponentially in the coming years.

How can the US achieve meaningful decarbonization goals without sacrificing reliable and stable energy? Here are 4 of the biggest challenges and practical ways to meet them:


Siting New Solar and Wind Farms
Building renewable energy sources is more difficult than it seems. Scouting for sites is fraught with issues such as community opposition due to local aesthetics and clean energy's hidden costs around disruption to the environment and recreation.

NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) is an influential source of opposition. Local residents join together in an effort to prevent shore front views in wealthy coastal areas from obstruction, which are needed to support offshore wind farms. These farms can also negatively impact local fisheries, while outdoor sports and entertainment activities such as sailing, waterskiing, fishing, or swimming may be disrupted, which are equally opposed by NIMBY advocates.

Utilities must take these concerns into account when scouting for renewable energy sites.

 

Maintaining Consistent Availability of Generation Capacity
The capacity to generate consistent, reliable electricity is both a regional and nationwide concern.

Wind and solar farms depend on a consistent level of wind velocity and sunny periods, yet wind and solar could meet 80% of U.S. demand and regional concerns must be considered. For example, the southwestern United States is an ideal location for large commercial solar arrays. Areas in the north are more problematic since fall and winter days are shorter, reducing their ability to consistently generate energy. The Midwest is a prime location for wind-based generation since it experiences a consistent level of wind throughout the year.

Nighttime periods and cloudy days virtually eliminate solar farms as a consistent energy source while loss of available winds impacts the reliability of wind as a base load supply of energy generation.

 

Pivoting From Current Energy Usage Models
Over the last 20 years, utilities have been heavily involved with normalizing consumer energy consumption curves, pursuing grid resilience strategies to manage variability. Due to the high cost of siting new fossil fuel facilities, building new electric grid interconnections, and the high commodity pricing for imported power, utilities were driven to modify their customers’ energy usage patterns.

These consumption regulating policies included:

  • Time of use metering to entice customers to use high energy devices at night
  • Installation of energy monitoring devices on high use customer equipment to enable the utility to reduce energy demand during peak use periods
  • Charging electric vehicles overnight

With fundamental changes occurring in how energy is generated, the availability of renewable power during low or no-sun periods and lower wind levels will require utilities to alter their energy consumption models.

 

Utilizing Government Support of New Electric Infrastructure
With the proposed government infusion of funds, including a rule to boost renewable transmission, to build and modernize infrastructures, utility leaders will be ideally positioned to drastically improve the reliability of the US electric grid.

Utilities will be involved in aggressive transmission line building projects to ensure the effective distribution of energy across multiple state lines, aligning with the U.S. grid overhaul for renewables underway today. This expansive build out of the US transmission and distribution system will create a dramatic increase in the need to accurately document the location and details of the new utility assets for current tracking and future analysis needs.

Energy leaders must seek advanced technology to provide them with solutions for precisely this purpose. Manual, paper-based field data collection must be replaced with digital workflows which automate and simplify asset data capture and analysis. Continued reliance on manual methods will cause them to lag behind the industry and impede their ability to support renewable energy for the modern era.

 

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"Remarkable" New Contract Award Adds 10 GW of Renewables to UK Grid

UK Renewable Energy Auction secures 10 GW for the grid at record-low costs, led by offshore wind, floating wind, solar, and onshore wind, with inflation-indexed CfDs delivering £37/MWh strike prices and enhanced energy security.

 

Key Points

Government CfDs add 10 GW of low-cost renewables to the UK grid via offshore wind, floating wind, and solar.

✅ 10 GW capacity: 7 GW offshore wind, 2.2 GW solar, 0.9 GW onshore wind

✅ Record-low £37/MWh offshore; floating wind at £87/MWh CfD strikes

✅ 15-year indexed contracts cut exposure to volatile gas prices

 

The United Kingdom will add 10 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity to its power grid at one-quarter the cost of fossil gas after concluding its biggest-ever renewable energy auction for new renewable supplies.

The “remarkable new UK renewable auction” will meet one-eighth of the country’s current electricity demand at record low prices of just £37 per megawatt-hour for offshore wind and £87 for floating offshore systems (a dynamic echoed as wind power gains in Canada across other markets), tweeted Carbon Brief Deputy Editor Simon Evans.

“The government is increasing its reliance on a local supply of renewables amid soaring UK power prices driven by a surge in the cost of natural gas following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” Bloomberg Green reports. Offshore wind energy “will add about seven gigawatts of clean power capacity to the nation’s fleet from 2026, bringing Britain closer to its target of installing 50 gigawatts by the end of the decade.”

The awards also include 2.2 gigawatts (that’s 2.2 billion watts) of solar and 900 megawatts of onshore wind, even as the UK faces a renewables backlog on some projects, Bloomberg says.

“Eye-watering gas prices are hitting consumers across Europe,” said UK Business and Energy Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng. “The more cheap, clean power we generate within our own borders, the better protected we will be from volatile gas prices that are pushing up bills.”

Citing government figures, Bloomberg says wind generation costs came in 5.8% lower than the previous auction in 2019, reflecting momentum in a sector set to become a trillion-dollar business this decade. Some of the winning bidders included Ørsted, Iberdrola’s Scottish Power unit, Vattenfall, and a consortium of AB Ignitis Grupe, EDP Renovaveis, and Engie.

Offshore wind power costs have fallen dramatically in recent years as the UK supported the industry to scale up and industrialize production of larger, more efficient turbines,” the news story states. Now, “the decline in price developers are willing to accept comes even after the cost of wind turbines rose in recent months as prices increased for key metals like steel and supply chain disruptions created expensive delays.”

The 15-year, fixed-price contracts will be adjusted for inflation when the turbines are ready to start delivering electricity, offering lessons for the U.S. wind sector on contract design.

 

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California Wants Cars to Run on Electricity. It’s Going to Need a Much Bigger Grid

California EV mandate will phase out new gas cars, raising power demand and requiring renewable energy, grid upgrades, fast chargers, time-of-use rates, and vehicle-to-grid to stabilize loads and reduce emissions statewide.

 

Key Points

California's order ends new gas-car sales by 2035, driving grid upgrades, charging infrastructure, and cleaner transport.

✅ 25% higher power demand requires new generation and storage

✅ Time-of-use pricing and midday charging reduce grid stress

✅ Vehicle-to-grid and falling battery costs enable reliability

 

Leaning on the hood of a shiny red electric Ford Mustang, California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order Wednesday to end the sale of new gas-burning cars in his state in 15 years, a move with looming challenges for regulators and industry.

Now comes the hard part.

Energy consultants and academics say converting all passenger cars and trucks to run on electricity in California could raise power demand by as much as 25%. That poses a major challenge to state power grids as California is already facing periodic rolling blackouts as it rapidly transitions to renewable energy.

California will need to boost power generation, scale up its network of fast charging stations, enhance its electric grid to handle the added load and hope that battery technology continues to improve enough that millions in America’s most populous state can handle long freeway commutes to schools and offices without problems.

“We’ve got 15 years to do the work,” said Pedro Pizarro, chief executive of Edison International, owner of Southern California Edison, a utility serving 15 million people in the state. “Frankly the state agencies are going to have to do their part. We’ve got to get to the permitting processes, the approvals; all of that work is going to have to get accelerated to meet [Wednesday’s] target.”

Switching from petroleum fuels to electricity to phase out the internal combustion engine won’t happen all at once—Mr. Newsom’s order applies to sales of new vehicles, so older gas-powered cars will be on the road in California for many years to come. But the mandate means the state will face a growing demand for megawatts.

California is already facing a shortfall of power supplies over the next couple of years. The problem was highlighted last month when a heat wave blanketed the western U.S. and the state’s grid operator instituted rolling blackouts on two occasions.

“It is too early to tell what kind of impact the order will have on our power grid, and we don’t have any specific analysis or projections,” said Anne Gonzalez, a spokeswoman for the California Independent System Operator, which runs the grid.

Currently, California faces a crunchtime in the early evening as solar power falls off and demand to power air conditioners remains relatively high. Car charging presents a new potential issue: what happens if surging demand threatens to crash the grid during peak hours?

Caroline Winn, the chief executive of San Diego Gas & Electric, a utility owned by Sempra Energy that serves 3.6 million people, said there will need to be rules and rates that encourage people to charge their cars at certain times of the day, amid broader control over charging debates.

“We need to get the rules right and the markets right, informed by lessons from 2021, in order to resolve this issue because certainly California is moving that way,” she said.

The grid will need to be upgraded to prepare for millions of new electric vehicles. The majority of people who own them usually charge them at home, which would mean changes to substations and distribution circuits to accommodate multiple homes in a neighborhood drawing power to fill up batteries. The state’s three main investor-owned utilities are spending billions of dollars to harden the grid to prevent power equipment from sparking catastrophic wildfires.


“We have a hell of a lot of work to do nationally. California is ahead of everybody and they have a hell of a lot of work to do,” said Chris Nelder, who studies EV-grid integration at the Rocky Mountain Institute, an energy and environment-policy organization that promotes clean-energy solutions.

Mr. Nelder believes the investment will be worth it, because internal combustion engines generate so much waste heat and emissions of uncombusted hydrocarbons that escape out of tailpipes. Improving energy efficiency by upgrading the electrical system could result in lower bills for customers. “We will eliminate a vast amount of waste from the energy system and make it way more efficient,” he said.

Some see the growth of electric vehicles as an opportunity more than a challenge. In the afternoon, when electricity demand is high but the sun is setting and solar power drops off quickly, batteries in passenger cars, buses and other vehicles could release power back into the electric grid to help grid stability across the system, said Matt Petersen, chairman of the Transportation Electrification Partnership, a public-private effort in Los Angeles to accelerate the deployment of electric vehicles.

The idea is known as “vehicle-to-grid” and has been discussed in a number of countries expanding EV use, including the U.K. and Denmark.

“We end up with rolling batteries that can discharge power when needed,” Mr. Petersen said, adding, “The more electric vehicles we add to the grid, the more renewable energy we can add to the grid.”

One big hurdle for the widespread deployment of electric cars is driving down the cost of batteries to make the cars more affordable. This week, Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk said he expected to have a $25,000 model ready by about 2023, signaling a broader EV boom in the U.S.

Shirley Meng, director of the Sustainable Power and Energy Center at the University of California, San Diego, said she believed batteries would continue to provide better performance at a lower cost.

“I am confident the battery technology is ready,” she said. Costs are expected to fall as new kinds of materials and metals can be used in the underlying battery chemistry, dropping prices. “Batteries are good now, and they will be better in the next 10 years.”

John Eichberger, executive director of the Fuels Institute, a nonprofit research group launched by the National Association of Convenience Stores, said he hoped that the California Air Resources Board, which is tasked with developing new rules to implement Mr. Newsom’s order, will slow the timeline if the market and electric build-out is running behind.

“We need to think about these critical infrastructure issues because transportation is not optional,” he said. “How do we develop a system that can guarantee consumers that they can get the energy when they need it?”

 

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