Aviary tracking raptors to find safe sites for wind turbines

By Pittsburgh Post-Gazette


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Two golden eagles that soared along the Allegheny Front ridge in Central Pennsylvania late last year and are now gliding over the hills of West Virginia and Kentucky might one day help determine where new windmills will be built in Pennsylvania and elsewhere in the East.

The wide-winged raptors are wearing tiny radio telemetry transmitters that allow National Aviary researchers to track their migration routes and eventually develop the first bird's-eye-view data showing where electric wind turbines should be built and not built to minimize the killing of eagles and other big birds.

Most wind turbine development has occurred without any scientific research on the consequences to migrating birds, according to Todd Katzner, director of conservation and field research at the National Aviary on the North Side. That has increased the risk that the turbine blades, some more than 100 feet long, will become bird slicers and dicers.

"Our broader goal is to identify ways in which wind power can be developed safely," Mr. Katzner said. "To say that we're looking at the effect of wind power on birds is partially true, but we're really trying to identify areas of high and low risk for windmill development."

More than 500 of the majestic raptors, Aquila chrysaetos, traverse the state twice a year during spring and fall migrations, as do bald eagles, osprey, falcons and a variety of hawks. Many of those raptor species, some of which are endangered or threatened like the eastern golden eagle, follow narrow corridors through the state.

Those airborne pathways, which the birds follow to take advantage of buoyant updrafts, run along the very ridge lines that wind power companies are eyeing for development.

"Not many folks are aware that there's a thousand golden eagles flying through Pennsylvania in November and December," Mr. Katzner said. "That sounds like a substantial number, but if you put turbines in the wrong place, they could have a significant impact on the population."

Wind power is the fastest growing energy technology, and Pennsylvania is the leading producer of wind energy east of the Mississippi River, generating 153 megawatts, enough to power 70,000 homes. Given that the state's goal is to boost wind power production to more than 3,000 megawatts, a 20-fold increase, over the next 15 years, the potential for mayhem along the Appalachian ridges is a significant concern.

No one - not birders, the wind power industry, nor the government agencies that issue permits for turbine sites - wants a repeat of the siting debacle that occurred at Altamont Pass, near San Francisco, where 4,000 wind turbines were constructed on rolling grasslands that contain a large ground squirrel colony and are prime foraging grounds for migrating golden eagles and other raptors. Estimates put the number of birds killed annually at more than 4,700, about 1,300 of them raptors.

The wind power industry caught another black eye in 2004, when it was discovered that hundreds of migratory birds and up to 4,000 bats were killed by the whirling blades of 44 turbines in the Mountaineer Wind Energy Center on Backbone Mountain in West Virginia. Heavy bat mortality also occurred at the 20-turbine wind farm in Myersdale, Somerset County, which came on line in 2004.

"Any kind of additional information that would help make better decisions is something we would be interested in," said Frank Maisano, a spokesman for a coalition of wind power developers in the mid-Atlantic region. "But if we learn about a bird's flight path, that shouldn't automatically disqualify a site from siting consideration."

Christine Real de Azua, a spokeswoman for the American Wind Energy Association, said wind energy's impact on birds was a "very important issue," but was quick to add that fewer than one of 10,000 birds that die because of human causes is killed by a turbine. Most are killed because they run into buildings or windows or by house cats.

"We have a very light impact now, and if we can make it even lighter, that's a very good thing," she said. "The industry is committed to researching, responding and identifying solutions."

The goal of the aviary study, which could cost as much as $300,000 and is still seeking funding, is to produce maps that land managers, government regulators and the wind power industry will use to guide wind power development and turbine placement throughout the northeast. Golden eagles were selected for study because they are an "umbrella species," that migrate along routes shared by other raptors.

"Our aim is to provide the scientific information necessary to allow decision-makers to pursue use of renewable energy sources with environmental benefits, while, at the same time, developing this technology in an eagle-friendly way," Mr. Katzner said.

Efforts to track golden eagles began in late November, when two of the migrating birds were trapped at the Allegheny Front Hawk Watch, a ridge-top site operated by the Allegheny Plateau Audubon Society southwest of Central City.

The birds were outfitted with telemetry devices that transmit their locations via satellite link and show their flight paths in real time and their altitude and flight speed over a range of topographic and climatic conditions.

During the spring migration, researchers will attempt to trap and strap the 4-ounce telemetry units to another eight golden eagles.

The National Aviary, in partnership with the Carnegie Museum of Natural History's Powdermill Avian Research Center, Lafayette College and the Tussey Mountain Hawkwatch, will collect data from the transmitters for at least a year and, possibly, as long as three. The information will be used to create computer models that predict migration patterns for the eastern golden eagles, which range from the southern United States to northern Canada.

"The models will enable us to look at the cumulative impacts of many wind farms on eagle movements and identify critical migration bottlenecks where turbine development should proceed with caution," Mr. Katzner said. "It is essential to have this kind of detailed information before wind power projects are sited and constructed."

He said golden eagles and other raptors that follow similar migration pathways could be spared fatal encounters with the whirling wind turbine blades if the turbines are moved a couple of hundred feet or the angle of the turbine blades related to a ridge is altered.

The state Department of Environmental Protection, which issues permits for windmill sites, and the Pennsylvania Game Commission, charged with protecting all of the state's wildlife, don't know how many birds wind turbines kill now, but both agencies are interested in the data the aviary's study will produce.

DEP Secretary Kathleen McGinty is heading a statewide committee looking at wind energy regulation, including siting guidelines, and the Game Commission is pushing for voluntary agreements with individual wind power developers that require siting guidelines protective of birds and bats.

Those agreements would set guidelines for monitoring birds 18 months before turbine construction and continuing after a turbine starts spinning. Proposals to install wind turbines in Important Bird Areas, designated by the Audubon Society, would be required to do more detailed monitoring, as would those proposed for migratory routes. A separate, voluntary siting guideline agreement also is under development by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Jerry Feaser, a Game Commission spokesman, said the commission was very interested in the aviary study and the information it could provide.

"Our concern is that the DEP's process is broader and a lot of wind power companies are trying to move ahead quickly," Mr. Feaser said. "We're trying to get ahead of that with agreements to avoid, minimize and if necessary, mitigate, impacts on birds and bats."

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27,000 Plus More Clean Energy Jobs Lost in May

U.S. Clean Energy Job Losses highlight COVID-19 impacts on renewable energy, solar, wind, and energy efficiency, with PPP fatigue, unemployment, and calls for Congressional stimulus, per Department of Labor data analyzed by E2.

 

Key Points

Pandemic-driven layoffs across renewable, solar, wind, and efficiency sectors, risking recovery without federal aid.

✅ Over 620,500 clean energy jobs lost in three months

✅ Energy efficiency, solar, and wind hit hardest nationwide

✅ Industry urges Congress for stimulus, tax credit relief

 

As Congress this week begins debating economic stimulus support for the energy industry, a new analysis of unemployment data shows the biggest part of America's energy economy - clean energy - lost another 27,000 jobs in May, bringing the total number of clean energy workers who have lost their jobs in the past three months to more than 620,500.

While May saw an improvement in new unemployment claims over March and April, the findings represent the sector's third straight month of significant job losses across solar, wind, energy efficiency, clean vehicles and other industries. With coronavirus cases once again rising in many states and companies beginning to run out of the Payroll Protection Program (PPP) funding that has helped small businesses keep workers employed, and as households confront pandemic power shut-offs that heighten energy insecurity, the report increases concerns the sector will be unable to resume its economy-leading jobs growth in the short- or long-term without a significant policy response.

Given the size and scope of the clean energy industry, such a sustained loss would cast a pall on the nation's overall economic recovery, as shifting electricity demand during COVID-19 complicates forecasts, according to the analysis of the Department of Labor's May unemployment data from E2 (Environmental Entrepreneurs), E4TheFuture and the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE).

Prior to COVID-19, clean energy - including energy efficiency, solar and wind generation, clean vehicles and related sectors - was among the U.S. economy's biggest and fastest-growing employment sectors, growing 10.4% since 2015 to nearly 3.4 million jobs at the end of 2019. That made clean energy by far the biggest employer of workers in all energy occupations, employing nearly three times as many people as the fossil fuel industry. For comparison, coal mining employs about 47,000 workers, even as clean energy projects in coal communities aim to revitalize local economies.

The latest monthly analysis for the groups by BW Research Partnership runs contrary to recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports, which indicated that a more robust economic rebound was underway, even as high fuel prices haven't spurred a green shift in adoption, while also acknowledging misclassifications and serious reporting difficulties in its own data.

Bob Keefe, Executive Director at E2, said:

"May's almost 30,000 clean energy jobs loss is sadly an improvement in the rate of jobs shed but make no mistake: There remains huge uncertainty and volatility ahead. It will be very tough for clean energy to make up these continuing job losses without support from Congress. Lawmakers must act now. If they do, we can get hundreds of thousands of these workers back on the job today and build a better, cleaner, more equitable economy for tomorrow. And who doesn't want that?"

Pat Stanton, Policy Director at E4TheFuture, said:

"Most of the time, energy efficiency workers need to go inside homes, businesses and other buildings to get the job done. Since they couldn't do that during COVID lockdowns, they couldn't work. Now states are opening up. But utilities, contractors and building owners need to protect employees and occupants from possible exposure to the virus and need more clarity about potential liabilities."

Gregory Wetstone, President and CEO of ACORE, said:

"In May, we saw thousands of additional renewable energy workers join the ranks of the unemployed, further underscoring the damage COVID-19 is inflicting on our workforce. Since the pandemic began, nearly 100,000 renewable energy workers have lost their jobs. We need help from Congress to get American clean energy workers back to work. With commonsense measures like temporary refundability and a delay in the phasedown of renewable energy tax credits, Congress can help restore these good-paying jobs so the renewable sector can continue to provide the affordable, pollution-free power American consumers and businesses want and deserve."

Phil Jordan, Vice President and Principal at BW Research Partnership, said:

"We understand the challenges and limitations of data collection for BLS in the middle of a global pandemic. But any suggestion that a strong employment rebound is underway in the United States simply is not reflected in the clean energy sector right now. And with PPP expiring, that only increases uncertainty in the months ahead."

The report comes as both the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources and the House Energy and Commerce Committee are considering clean energy stimulus to restart the U.S. economy, and amid assessments of mixed results from the climate law shaping expectations, and as lawmakers in both the House and Senate are increasing calls for supporting clean energy workers and businesses, including this bicameral letter signed by 57 members of Congress and another signed today by 180 House members.

Industries Hit Hardest

According to the analysis, energy efficiency lost more jobs than any other clean energy sector for the third consecutive month in May, shedding about 18,900 jobs. These workers include electricians, HVAC technicians who work with high-efficiency systems, and manufacturing employees who make Energy Star appliances, LED lighting systems and efficient building materials.

Renewable energy, including solar and wind, lost nearly 4,300 jobs in May.

Clean grid and storage and clean vehicles manufacturing -- including grid modernization, energy storage, car charging and electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle manufacturing -- lost a combined 3,200 jobs in May, as energy crisis impacts electricity, gas, and EVs in several ways.

The clean fuels sector lost more than 650 jobs in May.

States and Localities Hit Across Country

California continues to be the hardest hit state in terms of total job losses, losing 4,313 jobs in May and more than 109,700 since the COVID-19 crisis began. Florida was the second hardest hit state in May, losing an additional 2,563 clean energy jobs, while Georgia, Texas, Washington, and Michigan all suffered more than 1,000 job losses across the sector. An additional 12 states saw at least 500 clean energy unemployment filings, and reports like Pennsylvania's clean energy jobs analysis provide added context, according to the latest analysis.

For a full breakdown of clean energy job losses in each state, along with a list of the hardest hit counties and metro areas, see the full analysis here.

 

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'Transformative change': Wind-generated electricity starting to outpace coal in Alberta

Alberta wind power surpasses coal as AESO reports record renewable energy feeding the grid, with natural gas conversions, solar growth, energy storage, and decarbonization momentum lowering carbon intensity across Alberta's electricity system.

 

Key Points

AESO data shows wind surpassing coal in Alberta, driven by coal retirements, gas conversions, and growing renewables.

✅ AESO reports wind output above coal several times this week

✅ Coal units retire or convert to natural gas, boosting renewables

✅ Carbon intensity falls; storage and solar improve grid reliability

 

Marking a significant shift in Alberta energy history, wind generation trends provided more power to the province's energy grid than coal several times this week.

According to data from the Alberta Energy System Operator (AESO) released this week, wind generation units contributed more energy to the grid than coal at times for several days. On Friday afternoon, wind farms contributed more than 1,700 megawatts of power to the grid, compared to around 1,260 megawatts from coal stations.

"The grid is going through a period of transformative change when we look at the generation fleet, specifically as it relates to the coal assets in the province," Mike Deising, AESO spokesperson, told CTV News in an interview.

The shift in electricity generation comes as more coal plants come offline in Alberta, or transition to cleaner energy through natural gas generation, including the last of TransAlta's units at the Keephills Plant west of Edmonton.

Only three coal generation stations remain online in the province, at the Genesee plant southwest of Edmonton, as the coal phase-out timeline advances. Less available coal power, means renewable energy like wind and solar make up a greater portion of the grid.

 

EVOLUTION OF THE GRID
"Our grid is changing, and it's evolving," Deising said, adding that more units have converted to natural gas and companies are making significant investments into solar and wind energy.

For energy analyst Kevin Birn with IHS Markit, that trend is only going to continue.

"What we've seen for the last 24 to 36 months is a dramatic acceleration in ambition, policy, and projects globally around cleaner forms of energy or lower carbon forms of energy," Birn said.

Birn, who is also chief analyst of Canadian Oil Markets, added that not only has the public appetite for cleaner energy helped fuel the shift, but technological advancements have made renewables like wind and solar more cost-efficient.

"Alberta was traditionally heavily coal-reliant," he said. "(Now) western Canada has quite a diverse energy base."


LESS CARBON-INTENSIVE
According to Birn, the shift in energy production marks a significant reduction in carbon emissions as Alberta progresses toward its last coal plant closure milestone.

Ten years ago, IHS Markit estimates that Alberta's grid contributed about 900 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent per megawatt-hour of energy generation.

"That (figure is) really representing the dominance and role of coal in that grid," Birn said.

Current estimates show that figure is closer to 600 kilograms of CO2 equivalent.

"That means the power you and I are using is less carbon-intensive," Birn said, adding that figure will continue to fall over the next couple of years.


RENEWABLES HERE TO STAY
While many debate whether Alberta's energy is getting clean enough fast enough, Birn believes change is coming.

"It's been a half-decade of incredible price volatility in the oil market which had really dominated this sector and region," the analyst said.

"When I think of the future, I see the power sector building on large-scale renewables, which means decarbonization, and that provides an opportunity for those tech companies looking for clean energy places to land facilities."

Coal and natural gas are considered baseline assets by the AESO, where generation capacity does not shift dramatically, though some utilities report declining coal returns in other markets.

"Wind is a variable resource. It will generate when the wind is blowing, and it obviously won't when the wind is not," Deising said. "Wind and solar can ramp quickly, but they can drop off quite quickly, and we have to be prepared.

"We factor that into our daily planning and assessments," he added. "We follow those trends and know where the renewables are going to show up on the system, how many renewables are going to show up."

Deising says one wind plant in Alberta currently has an energy storage capacity to preserve renewably generated electricity during summer demand records and peak hours as needed. As the technology becomes more affordable, he expects more plants to follow suit.

"As a system operator, our job is to make sure as (the grid) is evolving we can continue to provide reliable power to Albertans at every moment every day," Deising said. "We just have to watch the system more carefully." 

 

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B.C. politicians must focus more on phasing out fossil fuels, report says

BC Fossil Fuel Phase-Out outlines a just transition to a green economy, meeting climate targets by mid-century through carbon budgets, ending subsidies for fracking, capping production, and investing in renewable energy, remediation, and resilient infrastructure.

 

Key Points

A strategic plan to wind down oil and gas, end subsidies, and achieve climate targets with a just transition in BC.

✅ End new leases, phase out subsidies, cap fossil production

✅ Carbon budgets and timelines to meet mid-century climate targets

✅ Just transition: income supports, retraining, site remediation jobs

 

Politicians in British Columbia aren't focused enough on phasing out fossil fuel industries, a new report says.

The report, authored by the left-leaning Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, says the province must move away from fossil fuel industries by mid-century in order to meet its climate targets, with B.C. projected to fall short of 2050 targets according to recent analysis, but adds that the B.C. government is ill prepared to transition to a green economy.

"We are totally moving in the wrong direction," said economist Marc Lee, one of the authors of the report, on The Early Edition Wednesday. 

He said most of the emphasis of B.C. government policy has been on slowing reductions in emissions from transportation or emissions from buildings, even though Canada will need more electricity to hit net-zero according to the IEA, while still subsidizing fossil fuel extraction, such as fracking projects, that Lee said should be phased out.

"What we are putting on the table is politically unthinkable right now," said Lee, adding that last month's provincial budget called for a 26 per cent increased gas production over the next three years, even though electrified LNG facilities could boost demand for clean power.

B.C.'s $830M in fossil fuel subsidies undermines efforts to fight climate crisis, report says
He said B.C. needs to start thinking instead about how its going to wind down its dependence on fossil fuel industries.

 

'Greener' job transition needed
The report said the provincial government's continued interest in expanding production and exporting fossil fuels, even as Canada's race to net-zero intensifies across the energy sector, suggests little political will to think about a plan to move away from them.

It suggests the threat of major job losses in those industries is contributing to the political inaction, but cited several examples of ways governments can help move workers into greener jobs, as many fossil-fuel workers are ready to support the transition according to recent commentary. 

Lee said early retirement provisions or income replacement for transitioning workers are options to consider.

"We actually have seen a lot of real-world policy around transition starting to happen, including in Alberta, which brought in a whole transition package for coal workers producing coal for electricity generation, and regional cooperation like bridging the electricity gap between Alberta and B.C. could further support reliability," Lee said.

Give cities the power to move more quickly on the environment, say Metro Van politicians
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Lee also said well-paying jobs could be created by, for example, remediating old coal mines and gas wells and building green infrastructure and renewable electricity projects in affected areas.

The report also calls for a moratorium on new fossil fuel leases and ending fossil fuel subsidies, as well as creating carbon budgets and fossil fuel production limits.

"Change is coming," said Lee. "We need to get out ahead of it."

 

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Australian operator warns of reduced power reserves

Australia Electricity Supply Shortfall highlights AEMO's warning of reduced reserves as coal retirements outpace capacity, risking load shedding. Calls for 1GW strategic reserves and investment in renewables, storage, and dispatchable power in Victoria.

 

Key Points

It is AEMO's forecast of reduced reserves, higher outage risk, and a need for 1GW strategic backup capacity.

✅ Coal retirements outpacing firm, dispatchable capacity

✅ AEMO urges 1GW strategic reserves in Victoria and South Australia

✅ Investment needed: renewables, storage, grid and reliability services

 

Australia’s electricity operator has warned of threats to electricity supply including a shortfall in generation and reduced power reserves on the horizon.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has called for further investment in the country’s energy portfolio as retiring coal plants are replaced by intermittent renewables poised to eclipse coal, leaving the grid with less back-up capacity.

AEMO has said this increases the chances of supply interruption and load shedding.

It added the federal government should target 1GW of strategic reserves in the states most at risk – Victoria and South Australia, even as the Prime Minister has ruled out taxpayer-funded power plants in the current energy battle.

CEO of the Clean Energy Council, Kane Thornton, said the shortfall in generation, reflected in a short supply of electricity, was due a decade of indecisiveness and debate leading to a “policy vacuum”.

He added: “The AEMO report revealed that the new projects added to the system under the renewable energy target will help to improve reliability over the next few years.

“We need to accept that the energy system is in transition, with lessons from dispatchable power shortages in Europe, and long term policy is now essential to ensure private investment in the most efficient new energy technology and solutions.”

 

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Yukon receives funding for new wind turbines

Yukon Renewable Energy Funding backs wind turbines, grid-scale battery storage, and transmission line upgrades, cutting diesel dependence, lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and strengthening Yukon Energy's isolated grid for remote communities, local jobs, and future growth.

 

Key Points

Federal support for Yukon projects adding wind, battery storage, and grid upgrades to cut diesel use and emissions.

✅ Three 100 kW wind turbines will power Destruction Bay.

✅ 8 MW battery storage smooths peaks and reduces diesel.

✅ Mayo-McQuesten 138 kV line upgrade boosts reliability.

 

Kluane First Nation in Yukon will receive a total of $3.1 million in funding from the federal government to install and operate wind turbines that will help reduce the community’s diesel reliance.

According to a release, the community will integrate three 100-kilowatt turbines in Destruction Bay, Yukon, providing a renewable energy source for their local power grid that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and create local jobs in the community.

A $2-million investment from Natural Resources Canada came from the Clean Energy for Rural and Remote Communities Program, part of the Government of Canada’s Investing in Canada infrastructure plan, which supports green energy solutions across jurisdictions. Crown-Indigenous Relations’ and Northern Affairs Canada also contributed a $1.1-million investment from the Northern REACHE Program.

Also, the Government of Canada announced more than $39.2 million in funding for two Yukon Energy projects that will increase the reliability of Yukon’s electrical grid, including exploration of a potential connection to the B.C. grid to bolster resiliency, and help build the robust energy system needed to support future growth. The investment comes from the government’s Green Infrastructure Stream (GIS) of the Investing in Canada infrastructure plan.

 

Project 1: Grid-scale battery storage

The federal government is investing $16.5 million in Yukon Energy’s construction of a new battery storage system in Yukon. Once completed, the 8 MW battery will be the largest grid-connected battery in the North, and one of the largest in Canada, alongside major Ontario battery projects underway.

The new battery is a critical investment in Yukon Energy’s ability to meet growing demands for power and securing Yukon’s energy future. As an isolated grid, one of the largest challenges Yukon Energy faces is meeting peak demands for power during winter months, as electrification grows with EV adoption in the N.W.T. and beyond.

When complete, the new system will store excess electricity generated during off-peak periods, complementing emerging vehicle-to-grid integration approaches, and provide Yukoners with access to more power during peak periods. This new energy storage system will create a more reliable power supply and help reduce the territory’s reliance on diesel fuel. Over the 20-year life of project, the new battery is expected to reduce carbon emissions in Yukon by more than 20,000 tonnes.

A location for the new battery energy storage system has not been identified. Yukon Energy will begin permitting of the project in 2020 with construction targeted to be complete by mid-2023.

 

Project 2: Replacing and upgrading the Mayo to McQuesten Transmission Line

Yukon Energy has received $22.7 million in federal funding to proceed with Stage 1 of the Stewart to Keno City Transmission Project – replacing and upgrading the 65 year-old transmission line between Mayo and McQuesten. The project also includes the addition of system protection equipment at the Stewart Crossing South substation. The Yukon government, through the Yukon Development Corporation, has already provided $3.5 million towards planning for the project.

Replacing the Mayo to McQuesten transmission line is critical to Yukon Energy’s ability to deliver safe and reliable electricity to customers in the Mayo and Keno regions, mirroring broader regional transmission initiatives that enhance grid resilience, and to support economic growth in Yukon. The transmission line has reached end-of-life and become increasingly unreliable for customers in the area.

The First Nation of Na-Cho Nyak Dun has expressed their support of this project. The project has also been approved by the Yukon Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment Board.

Yukon Energy will begin replacing and upgrading the 31 km transmission line between Mayo and McQuesten in 2020. Construction is expected to be complete in late 2020. When finished, the new 138 kV transmission line will provide more reliable electricity to customers in the Mayo and Keno regions and be equipped to support industrial growth and development in the area, including the Victoria Gold Mine, with renewable power from the Yukon grid.

Planning work for the remainder of the Stewart to Keno City Transmission Project has been completed. Yukon Energy continues to explore funding opportunities that are needed to proceed with other stages of the project.

 

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Top Senate Democrat calls for permanent renewable energy, storage, EV tax credits

Clean Energy Tax Incentives could expand under Democratic proposals, including ITC, PTC, and EV tax credits, boosting renewable energy, energy storage, and grid modernization within a broader infrastructure package influenced by Green New Deal goals.

 

Key Points

Federal incentives like ITC, PTC, and EV credits that cut costs and speed renewables, storage, and grid upgrades.

✅ Proposes permanence for ITC, PTC, and EV tax credits

✅ Could accelerate solar, wind, storage, and grid upgrades

✅ Passage depends on bipartisan infrastructure compromise

 

The 115th U.S. Congress has not even adjourned for the winter, and already a newly resurgent Democratic Party is making demands that reflect its majority status in the U.S. House come January.

Climate appears to be near the top of the list. Last Thursday, Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the Democratic Leader in the Senate, sent a letter to President Trump demanding that any infrastructure package taken up in 2019 include “policies and funding to transition to a clean energy economy and mitigate the risks that the United States is already facing due to climate change.”

And in a list of policies that Schumer says should be included, the top item is “permanent tax incentives for domestic production of clean electricity and storage, energy efficient homes and commercial buildings, electric vehicles, and modernizing the electric grid.”

In concrete terms, this could mean an extension of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar and energy storage, the Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind and the federal electric vehicle (EV) tax credit program as well.

 

Pressure from the Left

This strong statement on climate change, clean energy and infrastructure investment comes as at least 30 incoming members of the U.S. House of Representatives have signed onto a call for the creation of a committee to explore a “Green New Deal” and to move the nation to 100% renewable energy by 2030.*

It also comes as Schumer has come under fire by activists for rumors that he plans to replace Senator Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) with coal state Democrat Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) as the top Democrat on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

As such, one possible way to read these moves is that centrist leaders like Schumer are responding to pressure from an energized and newly elected Left wing of the Democratic Party. It is notable that Schumer’s program includes many of the aims of the Green New Deal, while avoiding any explicit use of that phrase.

 

Implications of a potential ITC extension

The details of levels and timelines are important here, particularly for the ITC.

The ITC was set to expire at the end of 2016, but was extended in legislative horse-trading at the end of 2015 to a schedule where it remains at 30% through the end of 2019 and then steps down for the next three years, and disappears entirely for residential projects. Since that extension the IRS has issued guidance around the use of co-located energy storage, as well as setting a standard under which PV projects can claim the ITC for the year that they begin construction.

This language around construction means that projects can start work in 2019, complete in 2023 and still claim the 30% ITC, and this may be why we at pv magazine USA are seeing an unprecedented boom in project pipelines across the United States.

Of course, if the ITC were to become permanent some of those projects would be pushed out to later years. But as we saw in 2016, despite an extension of the ITC many projects were still completed before the deadline, leading to the largest volume of PV installed in the United States in any one year to date.

This means that if the ITC were extended by the end of 2020, we could see the same thing all over again – a boom in projects created by the expected sunset, and then after a slight lull a continuation of growth.

Or it is possible that a combination of raw economics, increased investor and utility interest, and accelerating renewable energy mandates will cause solar growth rates to continue every year, and that any changes in the ITC will only be a bump against a larger trend.

While the basis for expiration of the EV tax credit is the number of vehicles sold, not any year, both the battery storage and EV industries, which many see at an inflection point, could see similar effects if the ITC and EV tax credits are made permanent.

 

Will consensus be reached?

It is also unclear that any such infrastructure package will be taken up by Republicans, or that both parties will be able to come to a compromise on this issue. While the U.S. Congress passed an infrastructure bill in 2017, given the sharp and growing differences between the two parties, and divergent trade approaches such as the 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs, it is not clear that they will be able to come to a meaningful compromise during the next two years.

 

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