Some in Thumb not fans of nearby wind turbine farm

By Bay City Times


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Wind turbines are creating some bad buzz in Michigan's Thumb region.

The big blades have been welcomed by many, including Governor Jennifer Granholm, as they've gone up in the farm fields of Huron County in recent years.

But a handful of people who live near some of the 46 turbines at a wind park in Bingham and Sheridan townships are now complaining about ongoing noise and rumble from the 300-foot-tall renewable energy generators.

"You can't go outside and have a nice, peaceful quiet night anymore," said Curt Watchowski, 42, who lives about 1,500 feet from two turbines on Purdy Road.

Watchowski, like some other residents, also complains of sleepless nights due to the noise, which he likens to the sound of a jet plane flying over.

Huron County officials have taken a half-dozen complaints in recent months, and have asked John Deere Wind Energy, which owns the park near Ubly called Michigan Wind 1, to hire an independent firm to conduct a noise study, said Russell R. Lundberg, director of the County Building and Zoning Department.

The county has a wind energy zoning ordinance with complex noise requirements. But the county has no way to measure the decibel levels from the turbines, Lundberg said.

"The turbines are assumed to be in compliance with the ordinance simply because we had a pre-construction wind study completed," he said.

The complaints come at a time when the Thumb is in the spotlight for new wind development.

Utilities including DTE Energy have leased land for future wind turbine developments to help meet a state renewable energy standard signed into law last year.

A recent report from the Michigan Wind Energy Resource Zone Board has identified parts of Huron, Sanilac, Tuscola, Bay and Saginaw counties as one of four regions in Michigan with the highest level of wind energy harvest potential.

Watchowski questions the decision to have John Deere contract for the study. He said he hopes Huron County leaders will make sure there's better planning for future projects.

"They were rushed in here without enough review," Watchowski said. "I'm not against wind energy... but there is proper places for it, and it's not next to homes."

David Peplinski, Watchowski's brother-in-law, lives nearby and within 1,300 feet of a turbine. He said he's had problems with rumbling, or "infrasound."

Peplinski compares the rumble to the feeling of a train moving by, or distant thunder. He said the rumble varies depending on wind direction, but seems to occur most often in the early morning hours.

"When I lay in bed, that's what wakes me up. That's what's not allowing us to get a good night's sleep," said Peplinski, 44.

John Deere Wind Energy has been meeting with residents to discuss their questions and concerns, said Angela Gallagher, a company spokeswoman.

"John Deere has engaged a consulting engineering firm to complete a study based on the measured sound level of the turbines in Ubly," Gallagher said in a statement. "We will share an update when the study is available and this date will be determined once the testing and report is complete."

A common complaint among the handful of residents is that a setback requirement for the wind turbines, to be within 1,000 feet of a home, wasn't strict enough.

Several studies have examined connections between wind turbine noise and health issues.

A researcher named Dr. Nina Pierpont of Malone, N.Y., has coined the phrase "wind turbine syndrome" for sleep problems, headaches, dizziness and other maladies experienced by some people who live near wind energy farms.

Her research says wind turbines should never be built closer than two miles from homes, according to a report in The Oregonian.

Lundberg said the 1,000-foot setback requirement was put in the county zoning ordinance after much study. He questions whether those who are complaining would be doing so if they signed leases to locate windmills on their property and were collecting profits from the turbines.

"If you were getting a little green for it, maybe the noise wouldn't be so bad," he said.

But Peplinski said that's not the case.

"I wouldn't wish this on anyone," he said. "That's part of what drives me to even take these steps, because I fear for the people who've signed up and their health."

Lundberg said county officials expected to have noise complaints after the turbines were operating from a small group of residents opposed to the development.

He encourages companies considering building more windmills in the Thumb to get everyone involved, including people who won't have turbines on their land.

Lundberg said the county has formed a subcommittee to deal with the complaints, oversee the wind noise study and decide whether the local zoning ordinance needs to be changed.

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Ontario First Nations urge government to intervene in 'urgently needed' electricity line

East-West Transmission Project Ontario connects Thunder Bay to Wawa, facing OEB bidding, Hydro One vs NextBridge, First Nations consultation, environmental assessment, Pukaskwa National Park route, and reliability needs for Northwestern Ontario industry and communities.

 

Key Points

A 450 km Thunder Bay-Wawa power line proposal facing OEB bidding, Hydro One competition, and First Nations consultation.

✅ Competing bids: Hydro One vs NextBridge under OEB rules

✅ First Nations cite duty to consult and environmental review gaps

✅ Route debate: Pukaskwa Park vs bypass; jobs and reliability at stake

 

Leaders of six First Nations are urging the Ontario government to "clean up" the bureaucratic process that determines who will build an "urgently needed" high-capacity power transmission line to service northern Ontario.

The proposed 450 kilometre East-West Transmission Project is set to stretch from Thunder Bay to Wawa, providing much-needed electricity to northern Ontario. NextBridge Infrastructure, in partnership with Bamkushwada Limited Partnership (BLP) — an entity the First Nations created in order to become co-owners and active participants in the economic development of the line — have been the main proponents of the project since 2012 and were awarded the right to construct.

In 2018, Hydro One appealed to the previous Liberal government with a proposal to build the transmission line with lower maintenance costs. On Dec. 20, the Ontario Energy Board (OEB) issued a decision that said it will issue the contract to construct the project to the company with the lowest bid, even as a Manitoba Hydro line delay followed a board recommendation in a comparable case.

The transmission regime in Ontario allows competing bids at the beginning of a project to designate a transmitter, and then again at the end of the project to award leave to construct.

As a result, the Hydro One was permitted to submit a competing bid, five years after it was first proposed. The chiefs of the six First Nations say that will delay the project by two years, impede their land and violate their rights. The former Liberal government under which the project was initiated "left the door open" for competition to enter this late in the construction, according to the community leaders.

"The former government created this mess and Hydro One has taken advantage of this loophole," Fort William First Nation Chief Peter Collins said in a Queen's Park news conference on Thursday. "Hydro One is an interloper coming in at the last minute, trying taking over the project and all the hard work that has been done, without doing the work it needs to do."

 

Mess will explode, says chief

According to Collins, the Ontario Energy Board is likely to choose Hydro One's late submission in February, "causing this mess to explode." The electricity and distribution utility has not completed any of the legal requirements demanded by a project of this magnitude, Collins said, including extensive consultations with First Nations, such as oral traditional evidence hearings that inform regulators, and thorough environment assessments. He speculated that by ignoring these two things, even though in B.C. Ottawa did not oppose a Site C work halt pending a treaty rights challenge, Hydro One's bid will be the lowest cost.

"Hydro One's interference is a big problem," said Collins. He was flanked by the leaders of the Pic Mobert First Nation, Opwaaganasiniing (also known as the Red Rock Indian Band), Michipicoten, Biigtigong Nishnaabeg — or Pic River First Nation — and Pays Plat First Nation.

Collins also highlighted that Hydro One's proposed route for the transmission line will go through Pukaskwa National Park on which there are Aboriginal title claims, and noted that an opponent of the Site C dam has been sharing concerns with northerners, underscoring the need for meaningful engagement. NextBridge's proposal, Collins said, will go around the park.

If Hydro One is awarded the construction project, at risk, too, are as many as 1,000 job opportunities in northern Ontario (including the Ring of Fire) that are expected from NextBridge's proposal, as well as the "many millions" in contracting opportunities for the communities, Collins said.

"That companies such as Hydro One can do this and dissolve all that has been developed by NextBridge and our [partnership] and all the opportunities we have created will signal to ... everyone in Ontario that Ontario's not open for business, at least fair business," Collins said.

 

Ontario Energy Minister 'disappointed' by OEB's decision

In an email statement to National Observer, Energy Minister Greg Rickford's press secretary said the government acknowledged the concerns of the First Nations leaders, and is "disappointed that the OEB continues to stall on this important project."

"The East-West Tie project is a priority for Ontario because it is needed to provide a reliable and adequate supply of electricity to northwestern Ontario to support economic growth," she wrote.

In October, Rickford wrote to the OEB outlining his expectation that a prompt decision would be made through an efficient and fair process.

Despite the minister’s request, the OEB delayed a decision on this project in December — as in B.C., a utilities watchdog has pressed for answers on Site C dam stability — pushing the service date back to at least 2021. In 2017, NextBridge said that, pending OEB approval, it would start construction in 2018, with completion scheduled for 2020.

Without the transmission line, the community faces a higher likelihood of power outages and less reliable electricity overall.

"Our government takes the duty to consult seriously and it is committed to ensuring that all Indigenous communities are properly consulted and kept informed regardless of the result of the OEB process," Rickford's office's statement said.

In a letter sent to Premier Doug Ford, Rickford and to Environment Minister Rod Phillips, all members of the Bamkushwada Limited Partnership said they will be compelled to appeal the OEB's decision if the right to construct is given to Hydro One.

The entire situation, they wrote in their letter, is "an undeniable mess" that requires government intervention.

"If the Ontario government can correct this looming outcome, it is incumbent on the Ontario government to do so," they wrote, urging the government to "take all legal means to prevent the OEB from rendering an unconstitutional and unjust decision."

"Our First Nations and the north have waited five long years for this transmission project," Collins said. "Enough is enough."

 

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Fish boom prompts energy conglomerate to spend $14.5M to bury subsea cables

Maritime Link Cable Burial safeguards 200-kV subsea cables in the Cabot Strait as Emera and Nova Scotia Power trench lines to mitigate bottom trawling risks from a redfish boom, ensuring Muskrat Falls hydro delivery.

 

Key Points

Trenching Cabot Strait subsea power cables to prevent redfish-driven bottom trawling and ensure Muskrat Falls power.

✅ $14.492M spent trenching 59 km at 400 m depth

✅ Protects 200-kV, 170-km subsea interconnects from trawls

✅ Driven by Gulf redfish boom; DFO and UARB consultations

 

The parent company of Nova Scotia Power disclosed this week to the Utility and Review Board, amid Site C dam watchdog attention to major hydro projects, that it spent almost $14,492,000 this summer to bury its Maritime Links cables lying on the floor of the Cabot Strait between Newfoundland and Cape Breton.

It's a fish story no one saw coming, at least not Halifax-based energy conglomerate Emera.

The parent company of Nova Scotia Power disclosed this week to the Utility and Review Board that it spent almost $14,492,000 this summer to bury its Maritime Link cables lying on the floor of the Cabot Strait between Newfoundland and Cape Breton.

The cables were protected because an unprecedented explosion in the redfish population in the Gulf of St Lawrence is about to trigger a corresponding boom in bottom trawling in the area.

Also known as ocean perch, redfish were not on anyone's radar when the $1.5-billion Maritime Link was designed and built to carry Muskrat Falls hydroelectricity from Newfoundland to Nova Scotia.

The two 200-kilovolt electrical submarine cables spanning the Cabot Strait are the longest in North America, compared with projects like the New England Clean Power Link planned further south. They are each 170 kilometres long and weigh 5,500 tonnes.

Nova Scotia Power customers are paying for the Maritime Link in return for a minimum of 20 per cent of the electricity generated by Muskrat Falls over 35 years.

The electricity is supposed to start sending first electricity through the Maritime Link in mid-2020.

First time cost disclosed
In August, the company buried 59 kilometres of subsea cables one metre below the bottom at depths of 400 metres.

"These cables had not been previously trenched due to the absence of fishing activities at those depths when the cables were originally installed," spokesperson Jeff Myrick wrote in an email to CBC News in October.

Ratepayers will get the bill next year, as utilities also face risks like copper theft that can drive costs in the region. Until now, the company had declined to release costs relating to protecting the Maritime Link.

The bill will be presented to regulators, a process that has affected projects such as a Manitoba Hydro line to Minnesota, when the company applies to recover Maritime Link costs from Nova Scotia Power ratepayers in 2020.

Myrick said the company was acting after consultation with the Department of Fisheries and Oceans.

Unexpected consequences
After years of overfishing in the 1980s and early 1990s, redfish quotas were slashed and a moratorium imposed on some redfish.

Confusingly, there are actually two redfish species in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

But very strong recent year classes, that have coincided with warming waters in the gulf, as utilities adapt to climate change considerations grow, have produced redfish in massive numbers.

After years of overfishing, the redfish population is now booming in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. (Submitted by Marine Institute)
There is now believed to be three-million tonnes of redfish in the Gulf of St Lawrence.

The Department of Fisheries and Oceans is expected to increase quotas in the coming years and the fishing industry is gearing up in a big way.

Earlier this month, Scotia Harvest announced it will begin construction of a new $14-million fish plant in Digby next spring in part to process increased redfish catches.

 

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US Approves Rule to Boost Renewable Transmission

FERC Transmission Rule accelerates grid modernization and interregional high-voltage lines, enabling renewable energy integration, load balancing, and reliability to advance net-zero goals while strengthening resilience, capacity expansion, and decarbonization across U.S. regional transmission organizations.

 

Key Points

A federal policy mandating interregional grid planning and cost sharing to expand high-voltage lines for renewables.

✅ Expands interregional high-voltage transmission capacity

✅ Improves reliability, resilience, and load balancing

✅ Aligns cost allocation and long-term planning for renewables

 

On May 13th, 2024, the US took a monumental step towards its clean energy goals. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved a long-awaited rule designed to significantly expand the transmission of renewable energy across the nation's power grid, a US grid overhaul that many advocates say was overdue. This decision aligns with President Biden's ambitious plan to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with renewable energy playing a central role.

The new rule tackles a critical bottleneck hindering the widespread adoption of renewables – transmission infrastructure. Unlike traditional power plants like coal or natural gas that run constantly, solar and wind power generation fluctuates with weather conditions. This variability poses a challenge for the existing grid, which is not designed to efficiently handle large-scale integration of these intermittent sources, helping explain why the grid isn't 100% renewable today.

The FERC rule aims to address this by promoting the construction of new, high-voltage transmission lines, particularly those connecting different regions, where grid limitations in the Pacific Northwest have highlighted the need for better interregional transfers. This improved connectivity would allow for a more strategic distribution of renewable energy. Imagine solar energy harnessed in the sun-drenched Southwest being transmitted eastward to meet peak demand during hot summer days on the Atlantic Coast.

The benefits of this expanded transmission network are multifaceted. First, it unlocks the full potential of renewable resources by allowing for their efficient utilization across the country, a trend consistent with wind and solar surpassing coal in U.S. generation. Abundant wind power in the Midwest could be utilized on the West Coast, while surplus solar energy from the South could supplement demand in the Northeast.

Second, a more robust grid with a higher capacity for renewables reduces reliance on fossil fuel-based power plants and complements other ways to meet decarbonization goals across sectors. This translates to cleaner air and a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to the fight against climate change.

Third, a modernized grid with improved long-distance transmission bolsters the nation's energy security. Extreme weather events, a growing concern due to climate change, can disrupt energy production in specific regions. This interconnected grid would provide a buffer, ensuring a more reliable and resilient power supply and helping put regions on the road to 100% renewables even during adverse weather conditions.

The FERC's decision is a win for environmental groups and the renewable energy industry. They see it as a critical step towards a cleaner energy future and a significant driver of job creation in the construction and maintenance of new transmission lines. However, concerns have been raised by some stakeholders, particularly investor-owned utilities. They worry about the potential cost burden associated with building these expansive new lines, and recent reports of stalled grid spending underscore those concerns and the need for efficient cost allocation mechanisms. Striking a balance between efficiency, affordability, and environmental responsibility will be crucial for the successful implementation of this policy.

 

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Prevent Summer Power Outages

Summer Heatwave Electricity Shutoffs strain utilities and vulnerable communities, highlighting energy assistance, utility moratoriums, cooling centers, demand response, and grid resilience amid extreme heat, climate change, and rising air conditioning loads.

 

Key Points

Service disconnections for unpaid bills during extreme heat, risking vulnerable households and straining power grids.

✅ Moratoriums and flexible payment plans reduce shutoff risk.

✅ Cooling centers and assistance programs protect at-risk residents.

✅ Demand response, smart grids, and efficiency ease peak loads.

 

As summer temperatures soar, millions of people across the United States face the grim prospect of electricity shutoffs due to unpaid bills, as heat exacerbates electricity struggles for many families nationwide. This predicament highlights a critical issue exacerbated by extreme weather conditions and economic disparities.

The Challenge of Summer Heatwaves

Summer heatwaves not only strain power grids, as unprecedented electricity demand has shown, but also intensify energy consumption as households and businesses crank up their air conditioning units. This surge in demand places considerable stress on utilities, particularly in regions unaccustomed to prolonged heatwaves or lacking adequate infrastructure to cope with increased loads.

Vulnerable Populations

The threat of electricity shutoffs disproportionately affects vulnerable populations, including low-income households who face sky-high energy bills during extreme heat, elderly individuals, and those with underlying health conditions. Lack of access to air conditioning during extreme heat can lead to heat-related illnesses such as heat exhaustion and heatstroke, posing serious health risks.

Economic and Social Implications

The economic impact of electricity shutoffs extends beyond immediate discomfort, affecting productivity, food storage, and the ability to work remotely for those reliant on electronic devices, while rising electricity prices further strain household budgets. Socially, the inability to cool homes and maintain basic comforts strains community resilience and exacerbates inequalities.

Policy and Community Responses

In response to these challenges, policymakers and community organizations advocate for measures to prevent electricity shutoffs during heatwaves. Proposed solutions include extending moratoriums on shutoffs, informed by lessons from COVID-19 energy insecurity measures, implementing flexible payment plans, providing financial assistance to at-risk households, and enhancing communication about available resources.

Public Awareness and Preparedness

Raising public awareness about energy conservation during peak hours and promoting strategies to stay cool without overreliance on air conditioning are crucial steps towards mitigating electricity demand. Encouraging energy-efficient practices and investing in renewable energy sources also contribute to long-term resilience against climate-driven energy challenges.

Collaborative Efforts

Collaboration between government agencies, utilities, nonprofits, and community groups is essential in developing comprehensive strategies to safeguard vulnerable populations during heatwaves, especially when systems like the Texas power grid face renewed stress during prolonged heatwaves. By pooling resources and expertise, stakeholders can better coordinate emergency response efforts, distribute cooling centers, and ensure timely assistance to those in need.

Technology and Innovation

Advancements in smart grid technology and decentralized energy solutions offer promising avenues for enhancing grid resilience and minimizing disruptions during extreme weather events. These innovations enable more efficient energy management, demand response programs, and proactive monitoring of grid stability, though some utilities face summer supply-chain constraints that delay deployments.

Conclusion

As summer heatwaves become more frequent and severe, the risk of electricity shutoffs underscores the urgent need for proactive measures to protect vulnerable communities. By prioritizing equity, sustainability, and resilience in energy policy and practice, stakeholders can work towards ensuring reliable access to electricity, particularly during times of heightened climate vulnerability. Addressing these challenges requires collective action and a commitment to fostering inclusive and sustainable solutions that prioritize human well-being amid changing climate realities.

 

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U.S. Department of Energy Announces $110M for Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage

DOE CCUS Funding advances carbon capture, utilization, and storage with FEED studies, regional deployment, and CarbonSAFE site characterization, leveraging 45Q tax credits to scale commercial CO2 reduction across fossil energy sectors.

 

Key Points

DOE CCUS Funding are federal FOAs for commercial carbon capture, storage, and utilization via FEED and CarbonSAFE.

✅ $110M across FEED, Regional, and CarbonSAFE FOAs

✅ Supports Class VI permits, NEPA, and site characterization

✅ Enables 45Q credits and enhanced oil recovery utilization

 

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Fossil Energy (FE) has announced approximately $110 million in federal funding for cost-shared research and development (R&D) projects under three funding opportunity announcements (FOAs), alongside broader carbon-free electricity investments across the power sector.

Approximately $75M is for awards selected under two FOAs announced earlier this fiscal year; $35M is for a new FOA.

These FOAs further the Administration’s commitment to strengthening coal while protecting the environment. Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is increasingly becoming widely accepted as a viable option for fossil-based energy sources—such as coal- or gas-fired power plants under new EPA power plant rules and other industrial sources—to lower their carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

DOE’s program has successfully deployed various large-scale CCUS pilot and demonstration projects, and it is imperative to build upon these learnings to test, mature, and prove CCUS technologies at the commercial scale. A recent study by Science of the Total Environment found that DOE is the most productive organization in the world in the carbon capture and storage field.

“This Administration is committed to providing cost-effective technologies to advance CCUS around the world,” said Secretary Perry. “CCUS technologies are vital to ensuring the United States can continue to safely use our vast fossil energy resources, and we are proud to be a global leader in this field.”

“CCUS technologies have transformative potential,” said Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy Steven Winberg. “Not only will these technologies allow us to utilize our fossil fuel resources in an environmentally friendly manner, but the captured CO2 can also be utilized in enhanced oil recovery and emerging CO2-to-electricity concepts, which would help us maximize our energy production.”

Under the first FOA award, Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) Studies for Carbon Capture Systems on Coal and Natural Gas Power Plants, DOE has selected nine projects to receive $55.4 million in federal funding for cost-shared R&D. The selected projects will support FEED studies for commercial-scale carbon capture systems. Find project descriptions HERE. 

Under the second FOA award, Regional Initiative to Accelerate CCUS Deployment, DOE selected four projects to receive up to $20 million in federal funding for cost-shared R&D. The projects also advance existing research and development by addressing key technical challenges; facilitating data collection, sharing, and analysis; evaluating regional infrastructure, including CO2 storage hubs and pipelines; and promoting regional technology transfer. Additionally, this new regional initiative includes newly proposed regions or advanced efforts undertaken by the previous Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSP) Initiative. Find project descriptions HERE. 

Elsewhere in North America, provincial efforts such as Quebec's and industry partners like Cascades are investing in energy efficiency projects to complement emissions-reduction goals.

Under the new FOA, Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE): Site Characterization and CO2 Capture Assessment, DOE is announcing up to $35 million in federal funding for cost-shared R&D projects that will accelerate wide-scale deployment of CCUS through assessing and verifying safe and cost-effective anthropogenic CO2 commercial-scale storage sites, and carbon capture and/or purification technologies. These types of projects have the potential to take advantage of the 45Q tax credit, bolstered by historic U.S. climate legislation, which provides a tax credit for each ton of CO2 sequestered or utilized. The credit was recently increased to $35/metric ton for enhanced oil recovery and $50/metric ton for geologic storage.

Projects selected under this new FOA shall perform the following key activities: complete a detailed site characterization of a commercial-scale CO2 storage site (50 million metric tons of captured CO2 within a 30 year period); apply and obtain an underground injection control class VI permit to construct an injection well; complete a CO2capture assessment; and perform all work required to obtain a National Environmental Policy Act determination for the site.

 

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Renewables are not making electricity any more expensive

Renewables' Impact on US Wholesale Electricity Prices is clear: DOE analysis shows wind and solar, capacity gains, and natural gas lowering rates, shifting daily patterns, and triggering occasional negative pricing in PJM and ERCOT.

 

Key Points

DOE data show wind and solar lower wholesale prices, reshape price curves, and cause negative pricing in markets.

✅ Natural gas price declines remain the largest driver of cheaper power

✅ Wind and solar shift seasonal and time-of-day price patterns

✅ Negative wholesale prices appear near high wind and solar output

 

One of the arguments that's consistently been raised against doing anything about climate change is that it will be expensive. On the more extreme end of the spectrum, there have been dire warnings about plunging standards of living due to skyrocketing electricity prices. The plunging cost of renewables like solar cheaper than gas has largely silenced these warnings, but a new report from the Department of Energy suggests that, even earlier, renewables were actually lowering the price of electricity in the United States.

 

Plunging prices
The report focuses on wholesale electricity prices in the US. Note that these are distinct from the prices consumers actually pay, which includes taxes, fees, payments to support the grid that delivers the electricity, and so on. It's entirely possible for wholesale electricity prices to drop even as consumers end up paying more, and market reforms determine how those changes are passed through. That said, large changes in the wholesale price should ultimately be passed on to consumers to one degree or another.

The Department of Energy analysis focuses on the decade between 2008 and 2017, and it includes an overall analysis of the US market, as well as large individual grids like PJM and ERCOT and, finally, local prices. The decade saw a couple of important trends: low natural gas prices that fostered a rapid expansion of gas-fired generators and the rapid expansion of renewable generation that occurred concurrently with a tremendous drop in price of wind and solar power.

Much of the electricity generated by renewables in this time period would be more expensive than that generated by wind and solar installed today. Not only have prices for the hardware dropped, but the hardware has improved in ways that provide higher capacity factors, meaning that they generate a greater percentage of the maximum capacity. (These changes include things like larger blades on wind turbines and tracking systems for solar panels.) At the same time, operating wind and solar is essentially free once they're installed, so they can always offer a lower price than competing fossil fuel plants.

With those caveats laid out, what does the analysis show? Almost all of the factors influencing the wholesale electricity price considered in this analysis are essentially neutral. Only three factors have pushed the prices higher: the retirement of some plants, the rising price of coal, and prices put on carbon, which only affect some of the regional grids.

In contrast, the drop in the price of natural gas has had a very large effect on the wholesale power price. Depending on the regional grid, it's driven a drop of anywhere from $7 to $53 per megawatt-hour. It's far and away the largest influence on prices over the past decade.

 

Regional variation and negative prices
But renewables have had an influence as well. That influence has ranged from roughly neutral to a cost reduction of $2.2 per MWh in California, largely driven by solar. While the impact of renewables was relatively minor, it is the second-largest influence after natural gas prices, and the data shows that wind and solar are reducing prices rather than increasing them.

The reports note that renewables are influencing wholesale prices in other ways, however. The growth of wind and solar caused the pattern of seasonal price changes to shift in areas of high wind and solar, as seen with solar reshaping prices in Northern Europe as daylight hours and wind patterns shift with the seasons. Similarly, renewables have a time-of-day effect for similar reasons, helping explain why the grid isn't 100% renewable today, which also influences the daily timing price changes, something that's not an issue with fossil fuel power.

A map showing the areas where wholesale electricity prices have gone negative, with darker colors indicating increased frequency.
Enlarge / A map showing the areas where wholesale electricity prices have gone negative, with darker colors indicating increased frequency.

US DOE
One striking feature of areas where renewable power is prevalent is that there are occasional cases in which an oversupply of renewable energy produces negative electricity prices in the wholesale market. (In the least-surprising statement in the report, it concludes that "negative prices in high-wind and high-solar regions occurred most frequently in hours with high wind and solar output.") In most areas, these negative prices are rare enough that they don't have a significant influence on the wholesale price.

That's not true everywhere, however. Areas on the Great Plains see fairly frequent negative prices, and they're growing in prevalence in areas like California, the Southwest, and the northern areas of New York and New England, while negative prices in France have been observed in similar conditions. In these areas, negative wholesale prices near solar plants have dropped the overall price by 3%. Near wind plants, that figure is 6%.

None of this is meant to indicate that there are no scenarios where expanded renewable energy could eventually cause wholesale prices to rise. At sufficient levels, the need for storage, backup plants, and grid management could potentially offset their low costs, a dynamic sometimes referred to as clean energy's dirty secret by analysts. But it's clear we have not yet reached that point. And if the prices of renewables continue to drop, then that point could potentially recede fast enough not to matter.

 

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