Capitol power plant dims clean energy hopes

By Associated Press


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As Congress tries to clean up the nation's energy sources and cut gases blamed for global warming, it is struggling to do so in its own backyard.

The Capitol Power Plant, a 99-year-old facility that heats and cools the hallowed halls of Congress, still burns coal and accounts for one-third of the legislative branch's greenhouse gas emissions. For a decade, lawmakers have attempted to clean it up.

In recent years, Congress has reduced its energy consumption. The steam and chilled-water power plant has become more efficient. It now burns more natural gas and only 35 percent coal, compared with 49 percent in 2007.

But Congress is running out of options to make the plant fully green. Also, there are questions about whether it can afford to keep paying to use the extra natural gas, which burns cleaner than coal.

The plant's story is one that is likely to play out across the United States as Congress looks to limit greenhouse gases and require more of the country's energy to come from wind, solar and other renewable sources.

The issues hampering the cleanup — politics, cost and technological barriers — could trip up similar efforts elsewhere. The U.S. counts on coal-fired power plants for about half of its electricity; the plants are also the biggest source of heat-trapping gases.

So if Congress cannot act locally, as the environmental slogan goes, how can it begin to think globally?

In 2007, the facility released 118,851 tons of carbon dioxide, according to the Energy Department. That's a fraction of the amount released by the roughly 600 coal-fired power plants nationwide that produce electricity, and the emissions created at other plants from which Congress buys power.

"We are holding it up as a symbol for how we can and must do better," said Mike Tidwell, director of the Chesapeake Climate Action Network. It is among 40 environmental organizations that protested at the plant a few blocks south of the Capitol.

Among them will be James Hansen, the NASA scientist who first testified in 1988 about the perils of global warming. He has called for halting construction of new coal-fired power plants without technology to capture and store carbon dioxide, the most prevalent greenhouse gas.

"They need to start by getting the coal out of Congress," Hansen said.

While carbon dioxide from the facility could be reduced 60 percent using carbon sequestration technology, the Energy Department in April 2008 ruled that out. The $112 million cost was too high. There is no place nearby to dispose of the gas and the extra coal burned to run the carbon-trapping equipment would increase other types of air pollution.

Recognizing this dead end, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., wrote the Architect of the Capitol with another recycled idea: convert the plant entirely to natural gas.

While four times more expensive than coal, natural gas produces about half as much carbon dioxide.

Referring to the facility as a shadow hanging over efforts to make Congress more environmentally friendly, the leaders said the conversion would demonstrate Congress' willingness to deal with global warming, energy independence and the use of finite fossil fuels.

An effort in 2000 to rid the plant of coal and oil was blocked by two senators from coal-producing states. Sens. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., and Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., argued at the time that the continued use of coal would save taxpayers money because it is cheaper than natural gas.

Byrd seemed more willing to compromise, saying he would support looking at the natural gas option.

Converting the plant entirely to natural gas would require equipment upgrades at the facility that would cost between $6 million and $7 million, in addition to having to buy more natural gas. It would cost $139 per ton of carbon dioxide saved, or about $2 million a year just for the House's portion of heating and air conditioning.

Pelosi and Reid say the investment far outweighs the costs. But in the midst of an economic crisis, it is not clear if that would be money well spent.

"It doesn't make any difference what they do," said Bill Kovacs, vice president for the environment, technology & regulatory affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "It makes a statement, but it is not going to change carbon dioxide concentrations at all anywhere in the world and coal will continue to be used somewhere else."

Coal-fired power plants elsewhere will have difficulty meeting new mandates if passed by lawmakers.

"The oldest and dirtiest ones will not compete well under that system," said Tidwell, who supports efforts to get the Capitol Power Plant off coal. "The people who own those power plants will have to make some choices."

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Maritime Link almost a reality, as first power cable reaches Nova Scotia

Maritime Link Subsea Cable enables HVDC grid interconnection across the Cabot Strait, linking Nova Scotia with Newfoundland and Labrador to import Muskrat Falls hydroelectric power and expand renewable energy integration and reliability.

 

Key Points

A 170-km HVDC subsea link connecting Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador for Muskrat Falls power and renewables

✅ 170-km HVDC subsea route across Cabot Strait

✅ Connects Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador grids

✅ Enables Muskrat Falls hydro and renewable energy trade

 

The longest sub-sea electricity cable in North America now connects Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador, according to the company behind the $1.7-billion Maritime Link project.  

The first of the project's two high-voltage power transmission cables was anchored at Point Aconi, N.S., on Sunday. 

The 170-kilometre long cable across the Cabot Strait will connect the power grids in the two provinces. The link will allow power to flow between the two provinces, as demonstrated by its first electricity transfer milestone, and bring to Nova Scotia electricity generated by the massive Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project in Labrador. 

Ultimately, the Maritime Link will help Nova Scotia reach the renewable energy goals set out by the federal government, said Rick Janega, the president and CEO of Emera Newfoundland and Labrador, whose subsidiary owns the Maritime Link.

"If not for the Maritime Link then really the province would not have the ability to meet those requirements because we're pretty much tapped out of all the hydro in province and all the wind generation without creating new interconnections like the Maritime Link," said Janega. 

Not everyone wanted the link 

Fishermen in Cape Breton had objected to the Maritime Link. They were concerned about how the undersea cable might affect fish in the area. 

The laying of the cable and other construction closed a three-kilometre long and 600-metre wide swath of ocean bottom to fishermen for the entire 2017 lobster season.  

But the company came to an agreement to compensate a group of 60 Cape Breton lobster and crab fishermen affected by the project this season. The terms of the compensation deal were not released. 

 

Long cable, big job

The transmission cable runs northwest of the Marine Atlantic ferry route between North Sydney, N.S., and Port aux Basques, N.L. 

Installation of the second cable is set to begin in June, a major step comparable to BC Hydro's Site C transmission milestone achieved recently. The entire link should be completed by late 2017 and should go into full service by January 2018.

"We're quite confident as soon as the Maritime Link is in service there will be energy transactions between Nova Scotia Power and Newfoundland Hydro. Both utilities have already identified opportunities to save money and exchange energy between the two provinces," said Janega.

That's two years before power is expected to flow from the Muskrat Falls hydro project. The Labrador-based power generating facility has been hampered by delays.

Those kinds of transmission project delays are expected for such a large project, said Janega, and won't stop the Maritime Link from being used. 

"With the Maritime Link going in service this year providing Nova Scotia the opportunity that it needs to be able to reach carbon reductions and to adapt to climate change and to increase renewable energy content and we're very pleased to be at this state today," said Janega.

 

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UK must start construction of large-scale storage or fail to meet net zero targets.

UK Hydrogen Storage Caverns enable long-duration, low-carbon electricity balancing, storing surplus wind and solar power as green hydrogen in salt formations to enhance grid reliability, energy security, and net zero resilience by 2035 and 2050.

 

Key Points

They are salt caverns storing green hydrogen to balance wind and solar, stabilizing a low-carbon UK grid.

✅ Stores surplus wind and solar as green hydrogen in salt caverns

✅ Enables long-duration, low-carbon grid balancing and security

✅ Complements wind and solar; reduces dependence on flexible CCS

 

The U.K. government must kick-start the construction of large-scale hydrogen storage facilities if it is to meet its pledge that all electricity will come from low-carbon electricity sources by 2035 and reach legally binding net zero targets by 2050, according to a report by the Royal Society.

The report, "Large-scale electricity storage," published Sep. 8, examines a wide variety of ways to store surplus wind and solar generated electricity—including green hydrogen, advanced compressed air energy storage (ACAES), ammonia, and heat—which will be needed when Great Britain's electricity generation is dominated by volatile wind and solar power.

It concludes that large scale electricity storage is essential to mitigate variations in wind and sunshine, particularly long-term variations in the wind, and to keep the nation's lights on. Storing most of the surplus as hydrogen, in salt caverns, would be the cheapest way of doing this.

The report, based on 37 years of weather data, finds that in 2050 up to 100 Terawatt-hours (TWh) of storage will be needed, which would have to be capable of meeting around a quarter of the U.K.'s current annual electricity demand. This would be equivalent to more than 5,000 Dinorwig pumped hydroelectric dams. Storage on this scale, which would require up to 90 clusters of 10 caverns, is not possible with batteries or pumped hydro.

Storage requirements on this scale are not currently foreseen by the government, and the U.K.'s energy transition faces supply delays. Work on constructing these caverns should begin immediately if the government is to have any chance of meeting its net zero targets, the report states.

Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith FRS, lead author of the report, said, "The need for long-term storage has been seriously underestimated. Demand for electricity is expected to double by 2050 with the electrification of heat, transport, and industrial processing, as well as increases in the use of air conditioning, economic growth, and changes in population.

"It will mainly be met by wind and solar generation. They are the cheapest forms of low-carbon electricity generation, but are volatile—wind varies on a decadal timescale, so will have to be complemented by large scale supply from energy storage or other sources."

The only other large-scale low-carbon sources are nuclear power, gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS), and bioenergy without or with CCS (BECCS). While nuclear and gas with CCS are expected to play a role, they are expensive, especially if operated flexibly.

Sir Peter Bruce, vice president of the Royal Society, said, "Ensuring our future electricity supply remains reliable and resilient will be crucial for our future prosperity and well-being. An electricity system with significant wind and solar generation is likely to offer the lowest cost electricity but it is essential to have large-scale energy stores that can be accessed quickly to ensure Great Britain's energy security and sovereignty."

Combining hydrogen with ACAES, or other forms of storage that are more efficient than hydrogen, could lower the average cost of electricity overall, and would lower the required level of wind power and solar supply.

There are currently three hydrogen storage caverns in the U.K., which have been in use since 1972, and the British Geological Survey has identified the geology for ample storage capacity in Cheshire, Wessex and East Yorkshire. Appropriate, novel business models and market structures will be needed to encourage construction of the large number of additional caverns that will be needed, the report says.

Sir Chris observes that, although nuclear, hydro and other sources are likely to play a role, Britain could in principle be powered solely by wind power and solar, supported by hydrogen, and some small-scale storage provided, for example, by batteries, that can respond rapidly and to stabilize the grid. While the cost of electricity would be higher than in the last decade, we anticipate it would be much lower than in 2022, he adds.

 

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Starting Texas Schools After Labor Day: Power Grid and Cost Benefits?

Texas After-Labor Day School Start could ease ERCOT's power grid strain by shifting peak demand, lowering air-conditioning loads in schools, improving grid reliability, reducing electricity costs, and curbing emissions during extreme heat the summer months.

 

Key Points

A proposed calendar shift to start school after Labor Day to lower ERCOT peak demand, costs, and grid risk.

✅ Cuts school HVAC loads during peak summer heat

✅ Lowers costly peaker plant use and electricity rates

✅ Requires calendar changes, testing and activities shifts

 

As Texas faces increasing demands on its power grid, a new proposal is gaining traction: starting the school year after Labor Day. This idea, reported by the Dallas News, suggests that delaying the start of the academic year could help alleviate some of the pressure on the state’s electricity grid during the peak summer months, potentially leading to both grid stability and financial savings. Here’s an in-depth look at how this proposed change could impact Texas’s energy landscape and education system.

The Context of Power Grid Strain

Texas's power grid, operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), has faced significant challenges in recent years. Extreme weather events, record-breaking temperatures, and high energy demand have strained the grid, and some analyses argue that climate change, not demand is the biggest challenge today, leading to concerns about reliability and stability. The summer months are particularly taxing, as the demand for air conditioning surges, often pushing the grid to its limits.

In this context, the idea of adjusting the school calendar to start after Labor Day has been proposed as a potential strategy to help manage electricity demand. By delaying the start of school, proponents argue that it could reduce the load on the power grid during peak usage periods, thereby easing some of the stress on energy resources.

Potential Benefits for the Power Grid

The concept of delaying the school year is rooted in the potential benefits for the power grid. During the hottest months of summer, the demand for electricity often spikes as families use air conditioning to stay cool, and utilities warn to prepare for blackouts as summer takes hold. School buildings, typically large and energy-intensive facilities, contribute significantly to this demand when they are in operation.

Starting school later could help reduce this peak demand, as schools would be closed during the hottest months when the grid is under the most pressure. This reduction in demand could help prevent grid overloads and reduce the risk of power outages, at a time when longer, more frequent outages are afflicting the U.S. power grid, ultimately contributing to a more stable and reliable electricity supply.

Additionally, a decrease in peak demand could help lower electricity costs. Power plants, particularly those that are less efficient and more expensive to operate, are often brought online during periods of high demand. By reducing the peak load, the state could potentially minimize the need for these costly power sources, leading to lower overall energy costs.

Financial and Environmental Considerations

The financial implications of starting school after Labor Day extend beyond just the power grid. By reducing energy consumption during peak periods, the state could see significant savings on electricity costs. This, in turn, could lead to lower utility bills for schools, businesses, and residents alike, a meaningful relief as millions risk electricity shut-offs during summer heat.

Moreover, reducing the demand for electricity from fossil fuel sources can have positive environmental impacts. Lower peak demand may reduce the reliance on less environmentally friendly energy sources, and aligns with calls to invest in a smarter electricity infrastructure nationwide, thereby decreasing greenhouse gas emissions and contributing to overall environmental sustainability.

Challenges and Trade-offs

While the proposal offers potential benefits, it also comes with challenges and trade-offs. Adjusting the school calendar would require significant changes to the academic schedule, potentially affecting extracurricular activities, summer programs, and family plans, and comparisons to California's reliability challenges underscore the complexity. Additionally, there could be resistance from various stakeholders, including parents, educators, and students, who are accustomed to the current school calendar.

There are also logistical considerations to address, such as how a delayed start might impact standardized testing schedules and the academic calendar for higher education institutions. These factors would need to be carefully evaluated to ensure that the proposed changes do not adversely affect educational outcomes or create unintended consequences.

Looking Ahead

The idea of starting Texas schools after Labor Day represents an innovative approach to addressing the challenges facing the state’s power grid. By potentially reducing peak demand and lowering energy costs, and alongside efforts to connect Texas's grid to the rest of the nation, this proposal could contribute to greater grid stability and financial savings. However, careful consideration and planning will be essential to navigate the complexities of altering the school calendar and to ensure that the benefits outweigh the challenges.

As Texas continues to explore solutions for managing its power grid and energy resources, the proposal to shift the school year schedule provides an intriguing possibility. It reflects a broader trend of seeking creative and multifaceted approaches to balancing energy demand, environmental sustainability, and public needs.

In conclusion, starting schools after Labor Day could offer tangible benefits for Texas’s power grid and financial well-being. As discussions on this proposal advance, it will be important to weigh all factors and engage stakeholders to ensure a successful and equitable implementation.

 

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Wind Leading Power

UK Wind Power Surpasses Gas as offshore wind and solar drive record electricity generation, National Grid milestones, and net zero progress, despite grid capacity bottlenecks, onshore planning reforms, demand from heat pumps and transport electrification.

 

Key Points

A milestone where wind turbines generated more UK electricity than gas, advancing progress toward a net zero grid.

✅ Offshore wind delivered the majority of UK wind generation

✅ Grid connection delays stall billions in green projects

✅ Planning reforms may restart onshore wind development

 

Wind turbines have generated more electricity than gas, as wind becomes the main source for the first time in the UK.

In the first three months of this year a third of the country's electricity came from wind farms, as the UK set a wind generation record that underscored the trend, research from Imperial College London has shown.

National Grid has also confirmed that April saw a record period of solar energy generation, and wind and solar outproduced nuclear in earlier milestones.

By 2035 the UK aims for all of its electricity to have net zero emissions, after a 2019 stall in low-carbon generation highlighted the challenge.

"There are still many hurdles to reaching a completely fossil fuel-free grid, but wind out-supplying gas for the first time is a genuine milestone event," said Iain Staffell, energy researcher at Imperial College and lead author of the report.

The research was commissioned by Drax Electrical Insights, which is funded by Drax energy company.

The majority of the UK's wind power has come from offshore wind farms, and the country leads the G20 for wind's electricity share according to recent analyses. Installing new onshore wind turbines has effectively been banned since 2015 in England.

Under current planning rules, companies can only apply to build onshore wind turbines on land specifically identified for development in the land-use plans drawn up by local councils. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak agreed in December to relax these planning restrictions to speed up development.

Scientists say switching to renewable power is crucial to curb the impacts of climate change, which are already being felt, including in the UK, which last year recorded its hottest year since records began.

Solar and wind have seen significant growth in the UK, with wind surpassing coal in 2016 as a milestone. In the first quarter of 2023, 42% of the UK's electricity came from renewable energy, with 33% coming from fossil fuels like gas and coal.

But BBC research revealed on Thursday that billions of pounds' worth of green energy projects are stuck on hold due to delays with getting connections to the grid, as peak power prices also climbed amid system pressures.

Some new solar and wind sites are waiting up to 10 to 15 years to be connected because of a lack of capacity in the electricity system.

And electricity only accounts for 18% of the UK's total power needs. There are many demands for energy which electricity is not meeting, such as heating our homes, manufacturing and transport.

Currently the majority of UK homes use gas for their heating - the government is seeking to move households away from gas boilers and on to heat pumps which use electricity.

 

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New York Finalizes Contracts for 23 Renewable Projects Totaling 2.3 GW

New York Renewable Energy Contracts secure 23 projects totaling 2.3 GW, spanning offshore wind, solar, and battery storage under CLCPA goals, advancing 70% by 2030, a carbon-free 2040 grid, grid reliability, and green jobs.

 

Key Points

State agreements securing 23 wind, solar, and storage projects (2.3 GW) to meet CLCPA clean power targets.

✅ 2.3 GW across 23 wind, solar, and storage projects statewide

✅ Supports 70% renewables by 2030; carbon-free grid by 2040

✅ Drives emissions cuts, grid reliability, and green jobs

 

In a significant milestone for the state’s clean energy ambitions, New York has finalized contracts with 23 renewable energy projects, as part of large-scale energy projects underway in New York, totaling a combined capacity of 2.3 gigawatts (GW). This move is part of the state’s ongoing efforts to accelerate its transition to renewable energy, reduce carbon emissions, and meet the ambitious targets set under the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA), which aims to achieve a carbon-free electricity grid by 2040.

A Strong Commitment to Renewable Energy

The 23 projects secured under these contracts represent a diverse range of renewable energy sources, including wind, solar, and battery storage. Together, these projects are expected to contribute significantly to New York’s energy grid, generating enough clean electricity to power millions of homes. The deal is a key component of New York’s broader strategy to achieve a 70% renewable energy share in the state’s electricity mix by 2030 and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 85% by 2050.

Governor Kathy Hochul celebrated the agreements as a major step forward in the state’s commitment to combating climate change while creating green jobs and economic opportunities. “New York is leading the nation in its clean energy goals, and these projects will help us meet our bold climate targets while delivering reliable and affordable energy to New Yorkers,” Hochul said in a statement.

The Details of the Contracts

The 23 projects span across various regions of the state, with an emphasis on areas that are well-suited for renewable energy development, such as upstate New York, which boasts vast open spaces ideal for large-scale solar and wind installations and the state is investigating sites for offshore wind projects along the coast. The contracts finalized by the state will ensure a steady supply of clean power from these renewable sources, helping to stabilize the grid and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

A significant portion of the new renewable capacity will come from offshore wind projects, which have become a cornerstone of New York’s renewable energy strategy. Offshore wind has the potential to provide large amounts of electricity, and the state recently greenlighted the country's biggest offshore wind farm to date, taking advantage of the state's proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. Several of the contracts finalized include offshore wind farm projects, which are expected to be operational within the next few years.

In addition to wind energy, solar power continues to be a critical component of the state’s renewable energy strategy. The state has already made substantial investments in solar energy, having achieved solar energy goals ahead of schedule recently, and these new contracts will further expand the state’s solar capacity. The inclusion of battery storage projects is another important element, as energy storage solutions are vital to ensuring that renewable energy can be effectively utilized, even when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing.

Economic and Job Creation Benefits

The finalization of these 23 contracts will not only bring significant environmental benefits but also create thousands of jobs in the renewable energy sector. Construction, maintenance, and operational jobs will be generated throughout the life of the projects, benefiting communities across the state, including areas near Long Island's South Shore wind proposals that stand to gain from new investment. The investment in renewable energy is expected to support New York’s recovery from the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to the state’s clean energy economy and providing long-term economic stability.

The state's focus on clean energy also provides opportunities for local businesses, highlighted by the first Clean Energy Community designation in the state, as many of these projects will require services and materials from within New York State. Additionally, Governor Hochul’s administration has made efforts to ensure that disadvantaged communities and workers from underrepresented backgrounds will have access to job training and employment opportunities within the renewable energy sector.

The Path Forward: A Clean Energy Future

New York’s aggressive move toward renewable energy is indicative of the state’s commitment to addressing climate change and leading the nation in clean energy innovation. By locking in contracts for these renewable energy projects, the state is not only securing a cleaner future but also ensuring that the transition is fair and just for all communities, particularly those that have been historically impacted by pollution and environmental degradation.

While the finalized contracts mark a major achievement, the state’s work is far from over. The completion of these 23 projects is just one piece of the puzzle in New York’s broader strategy to decarbonize its energy system. To meet its ambitious targets under the CLCPA, New York will need to continue investing in renewable energy, energy storage, grid modernization, and energy efficiency programs.

As New York moves forward with its clean energy transition, and as BOEM receives wind power lease requests in the Northeast, the state will likely continue to explore new technologies and innovative solutions to meet the growing demand for renewable energy. The success of the 23 finalized contracts serves as a reminder of the state’s leadership in the clean energy space and its ongoing efforts to create a sustainable, low-carbon future for all New Yorkers.

New York’s decision to finalize contracts with 23 renewable energy projects totaling 2.3 gigawatts represents a bold step toward meeting the state’s clean energy and climate goals. These projects, which include a mix of wind, solar, and energy storage, will contribute significantly to reducing the state’s reliance on fossil fuels and lowering greenhouse gas emissions. With the additional benefits of job creation and economic growth, this move positions New York as a leader in the nation’s transition to renewable energy and a sustainable future.

 

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America Going Electric: Dollars And Sense

California Net Zero Grid Investment will fuel electrification, renewable energy buildout, EV adoption, and grid modernization, boosting utilities, solar, and storage, while policy, IRA incentives, and transmission upgrades drive reliability and long-term rate base growth.

 

Key Points

Funding to electrify sectors and modernize the grid, scaling renewables, EVs, and storage to meet 2045 net zero goals.

✅ $370B over 22 years to meet 2045 net zero target

✅ Utilities lead gains via grid modernization and rate base growth

✅ EVs, solar, storage scale; IRA credits offset costs

 

$370 billion: That’s the investment Edison International CEO Pedro Pizarro says is needed for California’s power grid to meet the state’s “net zero” goal for CO2 emissions by 2045.

Getting there will require replacing fossil fuels with electricity in transportation, HVAC systems for buildings and industrial processes. Combined with population growth and data demand potentially augmented by artificial intelligence, that adds up to an 82 percent increase in electricity demand over 22 years, or 3 percent annually, and a potential looming shortage if buildout lags.

California’s plans also call for phasing out fossil fuel generation in the state, despite ongoing dependence on fossil power during peaks. And presumably, its last nuclear plant—PG&E Corp’s (PCG) Diablo Canyon—will be eventually be shuttered as well. So getting there also means trebling the state’s renewable energy generation and doubling usage of rooftop solar.

Assuming this investment is made, it’s relatively easy to put together a list of beneficiaries. Electric vehicles hit 20 percent market share in the state in Q2, even as pandemic-era demand shifts complicate load forecasting. And while competition from manufacturers has increased, leading manufacturers like Tesla TSLA -3% Inc (TSLA) can look forward to rising sales for some time—though that’s more than priced in for Elon Musk’s company at 65 times expected next 12 months earnings.

In the past year, California regulators have dialed back net metering through pricing changes affecting compensation, a subsidy previously paying rooftop solar owners premium prices for power sold back to the grid. That’s hit share prices of SunPower Corp (SPWR) and Sunrun Inc (RUN) quite hard, by further undermining business plans yet to demonstrate consistent profitability.

Nonetheless, these companies too can expect robust sales growth, as global prices for solar components drop and Inflation Reduction Act tax credits at least somewhat offset higher interest rates. And the combination of IRA tax credits and U.S. tariff walls will continue to boost sales at solar manufacturers like JinkoSolar Holding (JKS).

The surest, biggest beneficiaries of California’s drive to Net Zero are the utilities, reflecting broader utility trends in grid modernization, with investment increasing earnings and dividends. And as the state’s largest pure electric company, Edison has the clearest path.

Edison is currently requesting California regulators OK recovery over a 30-year period of $2.4 billion in losses related to 2017 wildfires. Assuming a amicable decision by early next year, management can then turn its attention to upgrading the grid. That investment is expected to generate long-term rate base growth of 8 percent at year, fueling 5 to 7 percent annual earnings growth through 2028 with commensurate dividend increases.

That’s a strong value proposition Edison stock, with trades at just 14 times expected next 12 months earnings. The yield of roughly 4.4 percent at current prices was increased 5.4 percent this year and is headed for a similar boost in December.

When California deregulated electricity in 1996, it required utilities with rare exceptions to divest their power generation. As a result, Edison’s growth opportunity is 100 percent upgrading its transmission and distribution grid. And its projects can typically be proposed, sited, permitted and built in less than a year, limiting risk of cost overruns to ensure regulatory approval and strong investment returns.

Edison’s investment plan is also pretty much immune to an unlikely backtracking on Net Zero goals by the state. And the company has a cost argument as well: Dr Pizarro cites U.S. Department of Energy and Department of Transportation data to project inflation-adjusted savings of 40 percent in California’s total customer energy bills from full electrification.

There’s even a reason to believe 40 percent savings will prove conservative. Mainly, gasoline currently accounts for a bit more than half energy expenditures. And after a more than 10-year global oil and gas investment drought, supplies are likely get tighter and prices possibly much higher in coming years.

Of course, those savings will only show up after significant investment is made. At this point, no major utility system in the world runs on 100 percent renewable energy, and California’s blackout politics underscore how reliability concerns shape deployment. And the magnitude of storage technology needed to overcome intermittency in solar and wind generation is not currently available let alone affordable, though both cost and efficiency are advancing.

Taking EVs from 20 to 100 percent of California’s new vehicle sales calls for a similar leap in efficiency and cost, even with generous federal and state subsidy. And while technology to fully electrify buildings and homes is there, economically retrofitting statewide is almost certainly going to be a slog.

At the end of the day, political will is likely to be as important as future technological advance for how much of Pizarro’s $370 billion actually gets spent. And the same will be true across the U.S., with state governments and regulators still by and large calling the shots for how electricity gets generated, transmitted and distributed—as well as who pays for it and how much, even as California’s exported policies influence Western markets.

Ironically, the one state where investors don’t need to worry about renewable energy’s prospects is one of the currently reddest politically. That’s Florida, where NextEra Energy NEE +2.8% (NEE) and other utilities can dramatically cut costs to customers and boost reliability by deploying solar and energy storage.

You won’t hear management asserting it can run the Sunshine State on 100 percent renewable energy, as utilities and regulators do in some of the bluer parts of the country. But by demonstrating the cost and reliability argument for solar deployment, NextEra is also making the case why its stock is America’s highest percentage bet on renewables’ growth—particularly at a time when all things energy are unfortunately becoming increasingly, intensely political.

 

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