Scientists say carbon dioxide emissions up 3%

US Electricity Demand Outlook examines EIA forecasts, GDP decoupling, energy efficiency, electrification, electric vehicles, grid load growth, and weather variability to frame long term demand trends and utility planning scenarios.

Key Points

An analysis of EIA projections showing demand decoupling from GDP, with EV adoption and efficiency shaping future grid load.

✅ EIA lowers load growth; demand decouples from GDP.

✅ Efficiency and sector shifts depress kWh sales.

✅ EV adoption could revive load and capacity needs.

Electricity producers and distributors are in an unusual business. The product they provide is available to all customers instantaneously, literally at the flip of a switch. But the large amount of equipment, both hardware and software to do this takes years to design, site and install.

From a long range planning perspective, just as important as a good engineering design is an accurate sales projections. For the US electric utility industry the most authoritative electricity demand projec-tions come from the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). EIA's compre-hensive reports combine econometric analysis with judgment calls on social and economic trends like the adoption rate of new technologies that could affect future electricity demand, things like LED light-ing and battery powered cars, and the rise of renewables overtaking coal in generation.

Before the Great Recession almost a decade ago, the EIA projected annual growth in US electricity production at roughly 1.5 percent per year. After the Great Recession began, the EIA lowered its projections of US electricity consumption growth to below 1 percent. Actual growth has been closer to zero. While the EIA did not antici-pate the last recession or its aftermath, we cannot fault them on that.

After the event, though, the EIA also trimmed its estimates of economic growth. For the 2015-2030 period it now predicts 2.1 percent economic and 0.3 percent electricity growth, down from previously projections of 2.7 percent and 1.3 percent respectively. (See Figures 1 and 2.)

Table 1. EIA electric generation projections by year of forecast (kWh billions)

Table 2. EIA forecast of GDP by year of forecast (billion 2009 $)

Back in 2007, the EIA figured that every one percent increase in economic activity required a 0.48 percent in-crease in electric generation to support it. By 2017, the EIA calculated that a 1 percent growth in economic activity now only required a 0.14 percent increase in electric output. What accounts for such a downgrade or disconnect between electricity usage and economic growth? And what factors might turn the numbers 
around?

First, the US economy lost energy intensive heavy industry like smelting, steel mills and refineries; patterns in China's electricity sector highlight how industrial shifts can reshape power demand. A more service oriented economy (think health care) relies more heavily on the movement of data or information and uses far less power than a manufacturing-oriented economy.

A small volcano in Argentina is about to fuel the next tech boom – and a little known company is going to be right at the center. Early investors stand to gain incredible profits and you can too. Read the report.

Second, internet shopping has hurt so-called "brick and mortar" retailers. Despite the departure of heavy industry, in years past a burgeoning US commercial sector increased its demand and usage of electricity to offset the industrial decline. But not anymore. Energy efficiency measures as well as per-haps greater concern about global warming and greenhouse gas emissions and have cut into electricity sales. “Do more with less” has the right ring to it.

But there may be other components to the ongoing decline in electricity usage. Academic studies show that electricity usage seems to increase with income along an S curve, and flattens out after a certain income level. That is, if you earn $1 billion per year you do not (or cannot) use ten times a much electricity as someone earning only $100 million.

But people at typical, middle income levels increase or decrease electricity usage when incomes rise or fall. The squeeze on middle income families was discussed often in the late presidential campaign. In recent decades an increasing percentage of income has gone to a small percentage of the population at the top of the income scale. This trend probably accounts for some weakness in residential sales. This suggests that government policy addressing income inequality would also boost electricity sales.

Population growth affects demand for electricity as well as the economy as a whole. The EIA has made few changes in its projections, showing 0.7 percent per year population growth in 2015- 2030 in both the 2007 and 2017 forecasts. Recent studies, however, have shown a drop in the birth rate to record lows. More troubling, from a national health perspective is that the average age of death may have stopped rising. Those two factors point to lower population growth, especially if the government also restricts immi-gration. Thus, the US may be approaching a period of rather modest population growth.

All of the above factors point to minimal sales growth for electricity producers in the US--perhaps even lower than the seemingly conservative EIA estimates. But the cloud on the horizon has a silver lining in the shape of an electric car. Both the United Kingdom and France have set dates to end of production of automobiles with internal combustion engines. Several European car makers have declared that 20 percent of their output will be electric vehicles by the early 2020s. If we adopt automobiles powered by electricity and not gasoline or diesel, electricity sales would increase by one third. For the power indus-try, electric vehicles represent the next big thing.

We don’t pretend to know how electric car sales will progress. But assume vehicle turnover rates re-main at the current 7 percent per year and electric cars account for 5 percent of sales in the first five years (as op-posed to 1 percent now), 20 percent in the next five years and 50 percent in the third five year period. Wildly optimistic assumptions? Maybe. By 2030, electric cars would constitute 28 percent of the vehicle fleet. They would add about 10 percent to kilowatt hour sales by that date, assuming that battery efficiencies do not improved by then. Those added sales would require increased electric generation output, with low-emissions sources expected to cover almost all the growth globally. They would also raise long term growth rates for 2015-2030 from the present 0.3 percent to 1.0 percent. The slow upturn in demand should give the electric companies time to gear up so to speak.

In the meantime, weather will continue to play a big role in electricity consumption. Record heat-induced demand peaks are being set here in the US even as surging global demand puts power systems under strain worldwide.

Can we discern a pattern in weather conditions 15 years out? Maybe we can, but that is one topic we don’t expect a government agency to tackle in public right now. Meantime, weather will affect sales more than anything else and we cannot predict the weather. Or can we?

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Power Generation News

Canadian Industrial IoT Cybersecurity Standards aim to unify device security for utilities, smart grids, SCADA, and OT systems, aligning with NERC CIP, enabling certification, trust marks, compliance testing, and safer energy sector deployments.

Key Points

National standards to secure industrial IoT for utilities and grids, enabling certification and NERC CIP alignment.

✅ Aligns with NERC CIP and NIST frameworks for energy sector security

✅ Defines certification, testing tools, and a trusted device repository

✅ Enhances OT, SCADA, and smart grid resilience against cyber threats

The Canadian energy sector has been buying Internet-connected sensors for monitoring a range of activities in generating plants, distribution networks facing harsh weather risks and home smart meters for several years. However, so far industrial IoT device makers have been creating their own security standards for devices, leaving energy producers and utilities at their mercy.

The industry hopes to change that by creating national cybersecurity standards for industrial IoT devices, with the goal of improving its ability to predict, prevent, respond to and recover from cyber threats, such as emerging ransomware attacks across the grid.

To help, the federal government today announced an $818,000 grant support a CIO Strategy Council project oversee the setting of standards.

In an interview council executive director Keith Jansa said the money will help a three-year effort that will include holding a set of cross-country meetings with industry, government, academics and interest groups to create the standards, tools to be able to test devices against the standards and the development of product repository of IoT safe devices companies can consult before making purchases.

“The challenge is there are a number of these devices that will be coming online over the next few years,” Jansa said. “IoT devices are designed for convenience and not for security, so how do you ensure that a technology an electricity utility secures is in fact safeguarded against cyber threats? Currently, there is no associated trust mark or certification that gives confidence associated with these devices.”

He also said the council will work with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), which sets North American-wide utility safety procedural standards and informs efforts on protecting the power grid across jurisdictions. The industrial IoT standards will be product standards.

According to Robert Wong, vice-president and CIO of Toronto Hydro, all the big provincial utilities are subject to adhering to NERC CIP standards which have requirements for both cyber and physical security. Ontario is different from most provinces in that it has local distribution companies — like Toronto Hydro — which buy electricity in bulk and resell it to customers.  These LDCs don’t own or operate critical infrastructure and therefore don’t have to follow the NERC CIP standards.

Regional reforms, such as regulatory changes in Atlantic Canada, aim to bring greener power options to the grid.

Electricity is considered around the world as one of a country’s critical national infrastructure. Threats to the grid can be used for ransom or by a country for political pressure. Ukraine had its power network knocked offline in 2015 and 2016 by what were believed to be Russian-linked attackers operating against utilities.

All the big provincial utilities operate “critical infrastructure” and are subject to adhering to NERC CIP (critical infrastructure protection) standards, which have requirements for both cyber and physical security, as similar compromises at U.S. electric utilities have highlighted recently.  There are audited on a regular basis for compliance and can face hefty fines if they fail to meet the requirements.  The LDCs in Ontario don’t own or operate “critical infrastructure” and therefore are not required to adopt NERC CIP standards (at least for now).

The CIO Strategy Council is a forum for chief information officers that is helping set standards in a number of areas. In January it announced a partnership with the Internet Society’s Canada Chapter to create standards of practice for IoT security for consumer devices. As part of the federal government’s updated national cybersecurity strategy it is also developing a national cybersecurity standard for small and medium-sized businesses. That strategy would allow SMBs to advertise to customers that they meet minimum security requirements.

“The security of Canadians and our critical infrastructure is paramount,” federal minister of natural resources Seamus O’Regan said in a statement with today’s announcement. “Cyber attacks are becoming more common and dangerous. That’s why we are supporting this innovative project to protect the Canadian electricity sector.”

The announcement was welcomed by Robert Wong, Toronto Hydro’s vice-president and CIO. “Any additional investment towards strengthening the safeguards against cyberattacks to Canada’s critical infrastructure is definitely good news.  From the perspective of the electricity sector, the convergence of IT and OT (operational technology) has been happening for some time now as the traditional electricity grid has been transforming into a Smart Grid with the introduction of smart meters, SCADA systems, electronic sensors and monitors, smart relays, intelligent automated switching capabilities, distributed energy resources, and storage technologies (batteries, flywheels, compressed air, etc.).

“In my experience, many OT device and system manufacturers and vendors are still lagging the traditional IT vendors in incorporating Security by Design philosophies and effective security features into their products.  This, in turn, creates greater risks and challenges for utilities to protecting their critical infrastructures and ensuring a reliable supply of electricity to its customers.”

The Ontario Energy Board, which regulates the industry in the province, has led an initiative for all utilities to adopt the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Cybersecurity Framework, along with the ES-C2M2 maturity and Privacy By Design models, he noted.  Toronto Hydro has been managing its cybersecurity practice in adherence to these standards, as the city addresses growing electricity needs as well, he said.

“Other jurisdictions, such as Israel, have invested heavily on a national level in developing its cybersecurity capabilities and are seen as global leaders.  I am confident that given the availability of talent, capabilities and resources in Canada (especially around the GTA) if we get strong support and leadership at a federal level we can also emerge as a leader in this area as well.”

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Grid Technologies News

Existing Nuclear Reactor Lifetime Extension sustains carbon-free electricity, supports deep decarbonization, and advances net zero climate goals by preserving the US nuclear fleet, stabilizing the grid, and complementing advanced reactors.

Key Points

Extending licenses keeps carbon-free nuclear online, stabilizes grid, and accelerates decarbonization toward net zero.

✅ Preserves 24/7 carbon-free baseload to meet climate targets

✅ Avoids emissions and replacement costs from premature retirements

✅ Complements advanced reactors; reduces capital and material needs

Nuclear power is the single largest source of carbon-free energy in the United States and currently provides nearly 20 percent of the nation’s electrical demand. As a result, many analyses have investigated the potential of future nuclear energy contributions in addressing climate change and investing in carbon-free electricity across the sector. However, few assess the value of existing nuclear power reactors.

Research led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Earth scientist Son H. Kim, with the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), a partnership between PNNL and the University of Maryland, has added insight to the scarce literature and is the first to evaluate nuclear energy for meeting deep decarbonization goals amid rising credit risks for nuclear power identified by Moody's. Kim sought to answer the question: How much do our existing nuclear reactors contribute to the mission of meeting the country’s climate goals, both now and if their operating licenses were extended?

As the world races to discover solutions for reaching net zero as part of the global energy transition now underway, Kim’s report quantifies the economic value of bringing the existing nuclear fleet into the year 2100. It outlines its significant contributions to limiting global warming.

Plants slated to close by 2050 could be among the most important players in a challenge requiring all available carbon-free technology solutions—emerging and existing—alongside renewable electricity in many regions, the report finds. New nuclear technology also has a part to play, and its contributions could be boosted by driving down construction costs.  

“Even modest reductions in capital costs could bring big climate benefits,” said Kim. “Significant effort has been incorporated into the design of advanced reactors to reduce the use of all materials in general, such as concrete and steel because that directly translates into reduced costs and carbon emissions.”

Nuclear power reactors face an uncertain future, and some utilities face investor pressure to release climate reports as well.
The nuclear power fleet in the United States consists of 93 operating reactors across 28 states. Most of these plants were constructed and deployed between 1970-1990. Half of the fleet has outlived its original operating license lifetime of 40 years. While most reactors have had their licenses renewed for an additional 20 years, and some for another 20, the total number of reactors that will receive a lifetime extension to operate a full 80 years from deployment is uncertain.

Other countries also rely on nuclear energy. In France, for example, nuclear energy provides 70 percent of the country’s power supply. They and other countries must also consider extending the lifetime, retiring, or building new, modern reactors while navigating Canadian climate policy implications for electricity grids. However, the U.S. faces the potential retirement of many reactors in a short period—this could have a far stronger impact than the staggered closures other countries may experience.

“Our existing nuclear power plants are aging, and with their current 60-year lifetimes, nearly all of them will be gone by 2050. It’s ironic. We have a net zero goal to reach by 2050, yet our single largest source of carbon-free electricity is at risk of closure, as seen in New Zealand's electricity transition debates,“ said Kim.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Climate Change News

Canadian Hydropower Transmission delivers HVDC clean energy via New England Clean Energy Connect and Champlain Hudson Power Express, linking HydroQuébec to Maine and New York grids for renewable energy, decarbonization, and lower wholesale electricity rates.

Key Points

HVDC delivery of HydroQuébec power to New England and New York via NECEC and CHPE, cutting emissions and costs.

✅ 1,200 MW via NECEC; 1,000 MW via CHPE.

✅ HVDC routes: 145-mile NECEC and 333-mile CHPE.

✅ Debates: land impacts, climate justice, wholesale rates.

As the sole residents of unorganized territory T5 R7 deep within Maine's North Woods, Duane Hanson and his wife, Sally Kwan, have watched the land around them—known for its natural beauty, diverse wildlife and recreational fishing—transformed by decades of development. 

But what troubles them most is what could happen in the next few months. State and corporate officials are pushing for construction of a 53-mile-long power line corridor cutting right through the woods and abutting the wild lands surrounding Hanson's property. 

If its proponents succeed, Hanson fears the corridor may represent the beginning of the end of his ability to live "off the land" away from the noise of technology-obsessed modern society. Soon, that noise may be in his backyard. 

"I moved here to be in the pristine wilderness," said Hanson.
 
With his life in what he considers the last "wild" place left on the East Coast on the line, the stakes have never felt higher to Hanson—and many across New England, as well.

The corridor is part of the New England Clean Energy Connect, one of two major and highly controversial transmission line projects meant to deliver Canadian hydropower from the government-owned utility HydroQuébec, in a province that has closed the door on nuclear power, to New England electricity consumers. 

As New England states rush to green their electric grids and combat the accelerating climate crisis, the simultaneous push from Canada to expand the market for hydroelectric power from its vast water resources, including Manitoba's clean energy, has offered these states a critical lifeline at just the right moment. 

The other big hydropower transmission line project will deliver 1,000 megawatts of power, or enough to serve approximately one million residential customers, to the New York City metropolitan area, which includes the city, Long Island, and parts of the Hudson Valley, New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania. 

The 333-mile-long Champlain Hudson Power Express project will consist of two high voltage direct current cables running underground and underwater from Canada, beneath Lake Champlain and the Hudson River, to Astoria, Queens. 

There, the Champlain Hudson project will interconnect to a sector of the New York electricity grid where city and corporate officials say the hydropower supplied can help reduce the fossil fuels that currently comprise significantly more of the base load than in other parts of the state. Though New York has yet to finalize a contract with HydroQuébec over its hydropower purchase, developers plan to start construction on the $2.2 billion project in 2021 and say it will be operational in 2025. 

The New England project consists of 145 miles of new HVDC transmission line that will run largely above ground from the Canadian border, through Maine to Massachusetts. The $1 billion project, funded by Massachusetts electricity consumers, is expected to deliver 1,200 megawatts of clean energy to the New England energy grid, becoming the region's largest clean energy source. 

Central Maine Power, which will construct the Maine transmission corridor, says the project will decrease wholesale electric rates and create thousands of jobs. Company officials expect to receive all necessary permits and begin construction by the year's end, with the project completed and in service by 2020. 

With only months until developers start making both projects on-the-ground realities, they have seized public attention within, and beyond, their regions. 

Hanson is one among many concerned New England and New York residents who've joined the ranks of environmental activists in a contentious battle with public and corporate officials over the place of Canadian hydropower in their states' clean energy futures. 

Officials and transmission line proponents say importing Canadian hydropower offers an immediate and feasible way to help decarbonize electricity portfolios in New York and New England and to address existing transmission constraints that limit cross-border flows today, supporting their broader efforts to combat climate change. 

But some environmental activists say hydropower has a significant carbon footprint of its own. They fear the projects will make states look "greener" at the expense of the local environment, Indigenous communities, and ultimately, the climate. 

"We're talking about the most environmentally and economically just pathway" to decarbonization, said Annel Hernandez, associate director of the NYC Environmental Justice Alliance. "Canadian hydro is not going to provide that." 

To that end, environmental groups opposing Canadian hydropower say New York and New England should seize the moment to expedite local development of wind and solar power. 

Paul Gallay, president of the nonprofit environmental organization Riverkeeper—which withdrew its initial support for the Champlain Hudson Power Express last November— believes New York has the capacity to develop enough in-state renewable energy sources to meet its clean energy goals, without the new transmission line. 

Yet New York City's analysis shows clearly that Canadian hydropower is critical for its clean energy strategy, said Dan Zarrilli, director of OneNYC and New York City's chief climate policy adviser. 

"We need every bit of clean energy we can get our hands on," he said, to meet the city's goal of carbon neutrality by 2050 and help achieve the state's clean energy mandates. 

Removing Canadian hydropower from the equation, said Zarilli, would commit the city to the "unacceptable outcome" of burning more gas. The city's marginalized communities would likely suffer most from the resulting air pollution and associated health impacts. 

While the two camps debate Canadian hydropower's carbon footprint and what climate justice requires, this much is clear: When it comes to pursuing a zero-carbon future, there are no easy answers. 

Hydropower's Carbon Footprint
Many people take for granted that because hydropower production doesn't involve burning fossil fuels, it's a carbon-neutral endeavor. But that's not always the case, depending on where hydropower is sourced. 

Large-scale hydropower projects often involve the creation of hydroelectric dams and reservoirs, and, in some cases, repowering existing dams to generate clean electricity. The release and flow of water from the reservoir through the dam provides the energy necessary to generate hydropower, which long-distance power lines, or transmission lines, carry to its intended destination—in this case, New England and New York. 

The initial process of flooding land to create a hydroelectric reservoir can have a sizable carbon footprint, especially in heavily vegetated areas. It causes the vegetation and soil underwater to decompose, releasing carbon dioxide and methane—a greenhouse gas 84 times more potent over a 20-year period than carbon dioxide. 

Hydropower accounts for 60 percent of Canada's electricity generation, and HydroQuébec has planned to increase capacity to 37,000 MW in 2021, with the nation second only to China in the percentage of the world's total hydroelectricity it generates. By contrast, hydropower only accounts for seven percent of U.S. utility-scale electricity generation, making it a foreign concept to many Americans. 

As New England works to introduce substantial amounts of Canadian hydropower to its electricity grid, hydropower proponents are promoting it as a prime source for clean electricity, and new NB Power agreements are expanding regional transfers within Canada as well. 

Last fall, Central Maine Power formed its own political action committee, Clean Energy Matters, to advance the New England hydropower project. Together with HydroQuébec, the Maine utility has spent nearly $17 million campaigning for the project this year. 

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Power Generation News

Tesla NYC Supercharger Expansion adds rapid EV charging across Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens, strengthening infrastructure, easing range anxiety, and advancing New York City sustainability goals with fast chargers at strategic commercial and residential-adjacent locations.

Key Points

Tesla's plan to add rapid EV charging across NYC, boosting access, easing range anxiety, and advancing climate targets.

✅ New Superchargers in Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens

✅ Faster charging to cut downtime and range anxiety

✅ Partnerships with businesses to expand public access

In a significant move to enhance the EV charging infrastructure across the city, Tesla has announced plans to expand its network of charging stations throughout New York City. This investment is set to bolster the availability of charging options, making it more convenient for EV owners while encouraging more residents to consider electric vehicles as a viable alternative to traditional gasoline-powered cars.

The Growing Need for Charging Infrastructure

As the demand for electric vehicles continues to rise amid the American EV boom across the country, the need for a robust charging infrastructure has become increasingly critical. With New York City setting ambitious goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the expansion of EVs is seen as a crucial component of its sustainability strategy. Currently, the city aims to have 50% of all vehicles electrified by 2030, a target that necessitates a significant increase in charging stations.

Tesla’s initiative to install more charging points in NYC aligns perfectly with these goals and reflects how charging networks are competing nationwide to expand access, drawing more drivers to consider electric vehicles. By enhancing the charging network, Tesla is not only catering to its existing customers but also appealing to potential EV buyers who may have previously hesitated due to range anxiety or limited charging options.

A Look at the Expansion Plans

The details of Tesla's expansion include adding several new Supercharger stations across key locations in Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens, as US automakers move to build 30,000 public chargers nationwide to boost coverage. These stations will be strategically placed to ensure maximum accessibility, especially in densely populated areas where residents may not have easy access to home charging.

Tesla’s Superchargers are known for their rapid charging capabilities, allowing EV drivers to recharge their vehicles in a fraction of the time it would take at a standard charging station. This efficiency will be particularly beneficial in a bustling urban environment like NYC, where convenience and time are of the essence.

Moreover, Tesla is also exploring partnerships with local businesses and property owners to install charging stations at commercial locations. This initiative would not only create more charging opportunities but also encourage businesses to attract EV-driving customers, further promoting electric vehicle adoption.

Impact on EV Adoption in NYC

The expansion of Tesla's charging network is expected to have a positive ripple effect on the adoption of electric vehicles in New York City. With more charging stations available, potential buyers will feel more confident in making the switch to electric. The convenience of accessible charging can significantly reduce range anxiety, a common concern among potential EV buyers.

Additionally, this expansion will likely encourage other automakers to invest in charging infrastructure, as utilities pursue a bullish course on charging to support deployment, leading to a more interconnected network of charging options across the city. As more drivers embrace electric vehicles, the demand for charging will continue to grow, a trend that will test state power grids in the coming years, further solidifying the need for a comprehensive and reliable infrastructure.

Supporting Sustainable Initiatives

Tesla's investment in NYC's charging infrastructure is also part of a broader commitment to sustainability. As cities grapple with the challenges of climate change and air pollution, transitioning to electric vehicles is seen as a vital strategy for reducing emissions. Electric vehicles produce zero tailpipe emissions, which contributes to cleaner air and a healthier urban environment.

Moreover, with the increasing push towards renewable energy sources, the integration of electric vehicles into the city’s transportation system can help reduce reliance on fossil fuels, with energy storage and mobile charging adding flexibility to support the grid. As more charging stations utilize renewable energy, the overall carbon footprint of electric vehicles will continue to decrease, aligning with New York City's climate goals.

Looking Ahead

As Tesla moves forward with its expansion plans in New York City, the implications for both the automotive industry and urban sustainability are profound. By enhancing the charging infrastructure, Tesla is not only facilitating the growth of electric vehicles but also playing a crucial role in the city’s efforts to combat climate change.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• EV Infrastructure News

Germany renewable energy milestone 2019 saw wind, solar, hydropower, and biomass outproduce coal and nuclear, as low gas prices and high CO2 costs under the EU ETS reshaped the electricity mix, per Fraunhofer ISE.

Key Points

It marks H1 2019 when renewables supplied 47.3% of Germany's electricity, surpassing coal and nuclear.

✅ Driven by high CO2 prices and cheap natural gas

✅ Wind and solar output rose; coal generation declined sharply

✅ Flexible gas plants outcompeted inflexible coal units

In Lippendorf, Saxony, the energy supplier EnBW is temporarily taking part of a coal-fired power plant offline. Not because someone ordered it — it simply wasn't paying off. Gas prices are low, CO2 prices are high, and with many hours of sunshine and wind, renewable methods are producing a great deal of electricity as part of Germany's energy transition now reshaping operations. And in the first half of the year there was plenty of sun and wind.

The result was a six-month period in which renewable energy sources, a trend echoed by the EU wind and solar record across the bloc, produced more electricity than coal and nuclear power plants together. For the first time 47.3% of the electricity consumers used came from renewable sources, while 43.4% came from coal-fired and nuclear power plants.

In addition to solar and wind power, renewable sources also include hydropower and biomass. Gas supplied 9.3%, reflecting how renewables are crowding out gas across European power markets, while the remaining 0.4% came from other sources, such as oil, according to figures published by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems in July.

Fabian Hein from the think tank Agora Energiewende stresses that the situation is only a snapshot in time, with grid expansion woes still shaping outcomes. For example, the first half of 2019 was particularly windy and wind power production rose by around 20% compared to the first half of 2018.

Electricity production from solar panels rose by 6%, natural gas by 10%, while the share of nuclear power in German electricity consumption has remained virtually unchanged despite a nuclear option debate in climate policy.

Coal, on the other hand, declined. Black coal energy production fell by 30% compared to the first half of 2018, lignite fell by 20%. Some coal-fired power plants were even taken off the grid, even as coal still provides about a third of Germany's electricity. It is difficult to say whether this was an effect of the current market situation or whether this is simply part of long-term planning, says Hein.

Activists storm German mine in anti-coal protest

It is clear, however, that an increased CO2 price has made the ongoing generation of electricity from coal more expensive. Gas-fired power plants also emit CO2, but less than coal-fired power plants. They are also more efficient and that's why gas-fired power plants are not so strongly affected by the CO2 price

The price is determined at a European level and covers power plants and energy intensive industries in Europe. Other areas, such as heating or transport are not covered by the CO2 price scheme. Since a reform of CO2 emissions trading in 2017, the price has risen sharply. Whereas in September 2016 it was just over €5 ($5.6), by the end of June 2019 it had climbed to over €26.

Ups and downs

Gas as a raw material is generally more expensive than coal. But coal-fired power plants are more expensive to build. This is why operators want to run them continuously. In times of high demand, and therefore high prices, gas-fired power plants are generally started up, as seen when European power demand hit records during recent heatwaves, since it is worth it at these times.

Gas-fired power plants can be flexibly ramped up and down. Coal-fired power plants take 11 hours or longer to get going. That's why they can't be switched on quickly for short periods when prices are high, like gas-fired power plants. In the first half of the year, however, coal-fired power plants were also ramped up and down more often because it was not always worthwhile to let the power plant run around the clock.

Because gas prices were particularly low in the first half of 2019, some gas-fired power plants were more profitable than coal-fired plants. On June 29, 2019, the gas price at the Dutch trading point TTF was around €10 per megawatt hour. A year earlier, it had been almost €20. This is partly due to the relatively mild winter, as there is still a lot of gas in reserve, confirmed a spokesman for the Federal Association of the Energy and Water Industries (BDEW). There are also several new export terminals for liquefied natural gas. Additionally, weaker growth and trade wars are slowing demand for gas. A lot of gas comes to Europe, where prices are still comparatively high, reported the Handelsblatt newspaper.

The increase in wind and solar power and the decline in nuclear power have also reduced CO2 emissions. In the first half of 2019, electricity generation emitted around 15% less CO2 than in the same period last year, reported BDEW. However, the association demands that the further expansion of renewable energies should not be hampered. The target of 65% renewable energy can only be achieved if the further expansion of renewable energy sources is accelerated.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Power Generation News