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UK Energy Price Guarantee Cost forecasts from Cornwall Insight suggest an £89bn bill, tied to wholesale gas prices, OBR projections, and fiscal policy, to shield households amid the cost of living crisis.

Key Points

It is the projected government spend to cap household bills, driven by wholesale gas prices and OBR market forecasts.

✅ Base case: £89bn over two years, per Cornwall Insight

✅ Range: £72bn to £140bn, volatile wholesale gas costs

✅ Excludes 6-month business support estimated at £22bn-£48bn

Liz Truss’s intervention to freeze energy prices for households for two years is expected to cost the government £89bn, according to the first major costing of the policy by the sector’s leading consultancy.

The analysis from Cornwall Insight, seen exclusively by the Guardian, shows the prime minister’s plan to tackle the cost of living crisis could cost as much as £140bn in a worst-case scenario.

Truss announced in early September that the average annual bill for a typical household would be capped at £2,500 to protect consumers from the intensifying cost of living crisis amid high winter energy costs and a scheduled 80% rise in the cap to £3,549.

The ultimate cost of the policy is uncertain as it is highly dependent on the wholesale cost of gas, including UK natural gas prices which have soared since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine put a squeeze on already-volatile international markets. Ballpark projections had put the cost anywhere from £100bn to £150bn.

The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to give its forecast for the bill when it provides its independent assessment of Kwasi Kwarteng’s medium-term fiscal plan, which the chancellor said on Tuesday would still happen on 23 November despite previous reports that it would be brought forward.

Cornwall Insight analysed projections of wholesale market moves to cost the intervention. In its base case scenario, analysts expect the policy to cost £89bn. That assumes the cost of supporting each household would be just over £1,000 in the first year, and about £2,000 in the second year.

The study’s authors said the wholesale price of gas would be influenced by energy demand, the severity of weather, “geo-political uncertainty” and prices for liquified natural gas as Europe seeks to refill storage facilities, which countries have rushed to fill up this winter but which could be relatively empty by next spring.

In the best-case outcome, the policy would cost £72bn, with some projections pointing to a 16% decrease in energy bills in April for households, while the “extreme high” outlook would see the government shell out £140bn to protect 29m UK households.

Gas prices are expected to push even higher if the Kremlin decides to completely cut off Russian gas exports into Europe.

Cornwall Insight’s projection does not include a separate six-month initiative to cap costs for companies, charities and public sector organisations, which is forecast to cost £22bn to £48bn.

The consultancy’s chief executive, Gareth Miller, said the £70bn range in its forecasts reflected “a febrile wholesale market continuing to be beset by geopolitical instability, sensitivity to demand, weather and infrastructure resilience”.

He said: “Fortune befriends the bold, but it also favours the prepared. The large uncertainties around commodity markets over the next two years means that the government could get lucky with costs coming out at the low end of the range, but the opposite could also be true.

“In each case, the government may find itself passengers to circumstances outside its control, having made policy that is a hostage to surprises, events and volatile factors. That’s a difficult position to be in.”

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The government has faced criticism, as some British MPs urge tighter limits on prices, that the policy is effectively a “blank cheque” and is not targeted at the most vulnerable in society.

Concerns over how Truss and Kwarteng intend to fund a series of measures, including the price guarantee, have spooked financial markets.

The EU, which has outlined possible gas price cap strategies in recent proposals, said last week it planned to cap the revenues of low-carbon electricity generators at €180 a megawatt hour, which is less than half current market prices. Truss has so far resisted calls to extend a levy on North Sea oil and gas operators to electricity generators, who have benefited from a link between gas and electricity prices in Britain.

Truss hopes to strike voluntary long-term deals with generators including Centrica and EDF, alongside the government’s Energy Security Bill measures, to bring down wholesale prices.

The Financial Times reported on Tuesday that the government has threatened companies with legislation to cap their revenues if voluntary deals cannot be agreed.

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Canada Tidal Energy Investment drives Nova Scotia's PLAT-I floating tidal array at FORCE, advancing renewable energy, clean electricity, emissions reductions, and green jobs while delivering 9 MW of predictable ocean power to the provincial grid.

Key Points

Federal funding for a floating tidal array delivering 9 MW of clean power in Nova Scotia, cutting annual CO2 emissions.

✅ $28.5M for Sustainable Marine's PLAT-I floating array

✅ Delivers 9 MW to Nova Scotia's grid via FORCE

✅ Cuts 17,000 tonnes CO2 yearly and creates local jobs

Canada has an abundance of renewable energy sources that are helping power our country's clean growth future and the Government of Canada is investing in renewable energy and grid modernization to reduce emissions, create jobs and invigorate local economies in a post COVID-19 pandemic world.

The Honourable Seamus O'Regan, Canada's Minister of Natural Resources, today announced one of Canada's largest-ever investments in tidal energy development — $28.5 million to Sustainable Marine in Nova Scotia to deliver Canada's first floating tidal energy array.

Sustainable Marine developed an innovative floating tidal energy platform called PLAT-I as part of advances in ocean and river power technologies that has undergone rigorous testing on the waters of Grand Passage for nearly two years. A second platform is currently being assembled in Meteghan, Nova Scotia and will be launched in Grand Passage later this year for testing before relocation to the Fundy Ocean Research Centre for Energy (FORCE) in 2021. These platforms will make up the tidal energy array.  

The objective of the project is to provide up to nine megawatts of predictable and clean renewable electricity to Nova Scotia's electrical grid infrastructure. This will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 17,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year while creating new jobs in the province. The project will also demonstrate the ability to harness tides as a reliable source of renewable electricity to power homes, vehicles and businesses.

Tidal energy — a clean, renewable energy source generated by ocean tides and currents, alongside evolving offshore wind regulations that support marine renewables — has the potential to significantly reduce Canada's greenhouse gas emissions and improve local air quality by displacing electricity generated from fossil fuels.

Minister O'Regan made the announcement at the Marine Renewables Canada 2020 Fall Forum, which brings together its members and industry to identify opportunities and strategize a path forward for marine renewable energy sources.

Funding for the project comes from Natural Resources Canada's Emerging Renewables Power Program, part of Canada's more than $180-billion Investing in Canada infrastructure plan for public transit projects, green infrastructure, social infrastructure, trade and transportation routes and Canada's rural and northern communities, as Prairie provinces' renewable growth accelerates nationwide.

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New England oil-fired generation surges as ISO New England manages a cold snap, dual-fuel switching, and a natural gas price spike, highlighting winter reliability challenges, LNG and pipeline limits, and rising CO2 emissions.

Key Points

Reliance on oil-burning power plants during winter demand spikes when natural gas is costly or constrained.

✅ Driven by dual-fuel switching amid high natural gas prices

✅ ISO-NE winter reliability rules encourage oil stockpiles

✅ Raises CO2 emissions despite coal retirements and renewables growth

New England is relying on oil-fired generators for the most electricity since 2018 as a frigid blast boosts demand for power and natural gas prices soar across markets. 

Oil generators were producing more than 4,200 megawatts early Thursday, accounting for about a quarter of the grid’s power supply, according to ISO New England. That was the most since Jan. 6, 2018, when oil plants produced as much as 6.4 gigawatts, or 32% of the grid’s output, said Wood Mackenzie analyst Margaret Cashman.  

Oil is typically used only when demand spikes, because of higher costs and emissions concerns. Consumption has been consistently high over the past three weeks as some generators switch from gas, which has surged in price in recent months. New England generators are producing power from oil at an average rate of almost 1.8 gigawatts so far this month, the highest for January in at least five years. 

Oil’s share declined to 16% Friday morning ahead of an expected snowstorm, which was “a surprise,” Cashman said. 

“It makes me wonder if some of those generators are aiming to reserve their fuel for this weekend,” she said.

During the recent cold snap, more than a tenth of the electricity generated in New England has been produced by power plants that haven’t happened for at least 15 years.

Burning oil for electricity was standard practice throughout the region for decades. It was once our most common fuel for power and as recently as 2000, fully 19% of the six-state region’s electricity came from burning oil, according to ISO-New England, more than any other source except nuclear power at the time.

Since then, however, natural gas has gotten so cheap that most oil-fired plants have been shut or converted to burn gas, to the point that just 1% of New England’s electricity came from oil in 2018, whereas about half our power came from natural gas generation regionally during that period. This is good because natural gas produces less pollution, both particulates and greenhouse gasses, although exactly how much less is a matter of debate.

But as you probably know, there’s a problem: Natural gas is also used for heating, which gets first dibs. Prolonged cold snaps require so much gas to keep us warm, a challenge echoed in Ontario’s electricity system as supply tightens, that there might not be enough for power plants – at least, not at prices they’re willing to pay.

After we came close to rolling brownouts during the polar vortex in the 2017-18 winter because gas-fired power plants cut back so much, ISO-NE, which has oversight of the power grid, established “winter reliability” rules. The most important change was to pay power plants to become dual-fuel, meaning they can switch quickly between natural gas and oil, and to stockpile oil for winter cold snaps.

We’re seeing that practice in action right now, as many dual-fuel plants have switched away from gas to oil, just as was intended.

That switch is part of the reason EPA says the region’s carbon emissions have gone up in the pandemic, from 22 million tons of CO2 in 2019 to 24 million tons in 2021. That reverses a long trend caused partly by closing of coal plants and partly by growing solar and offshore wind capacity: New England power generation produced 36 million tons of CO2 a decade ago.

So if we admit that a return to oil burning is bad, and it is, what can we do in future winters? There are many possibilities, including tapping more clean imports such as Canadian hydropower to diversify supply.

The most obvious solution is to import more natural gas, especially from fracked fields in New York state and Pennsylvania. But efforts to build pipelines to do that have been shot down a couple of times and seem unlikely to go forward and importing more gas via ocean tanker in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is also an option, but hits limits in terms of port facilities.

Aside from NIMBY concerns, the problem with building pipelines or ports to import more gas is that pipelines and ports are very expensive. Once they’re built they create a financial incentive to keep using natural gas for decades to justify the expense, similar to moves such as Ontario’s new gas plants that lock in generation. That makes it much harder for New England to decarbonize and potentially leaves ratepayers on the hook for a boatload of stranded costs.

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Tesla Supercharger Billing Update details kWh-based pricing that now includes HVAC, battery thermal management, and other HV loads during charging sessions, improving cost transparency across pay-per-use markets and extreme climate scenarios.

Key Points

Tesla's update bills for kWh used by HVAC, battery heating, and HV loads during charging, reflecting true energy costs.

✅ kWh charges now include HVAC and battery thermal management

✅ Expect 10-25 kWh increases in extreme climates during sessions

✅ Some regions still bill per minute due to regulations

Tesla has updated its Supercharger billing policy to add the cost of electricity use for things other than charging, like HVAC, battery thermal management, etc, while charging at a Supercharger station, a shift that impacts overall EV charging costs for drivers. 

For a long time, Tesla’s Superchargers were free to use, or rather the use was included in the price of its vehicles. But the automaker has been moving to a pay-to-use model over the last two years in order to finance the growth of the charging network amid the Biden-era charging expansion in the United States.

Not charging owners for the electricity enabled Tesla to wait on developing a payment system for its Supercharger network.

It didn’t need one for the first five years of the network, and now the automaker has been fine-tuning its approach to charge owners for the electricity they consume as part of building better charging networks across markets.

At first, it meant fluctuating prices, and now Tesla is also adjusting how it calculates the total power consumption.

Last weekend, Tesla sent a memo to its staff to inform them that they are updating the calculation used to bill Supercharging sessions in order to take into account all the electricity used:

The calculation used to bill for Supercharging has been updated. Owners will also be billed for kWhs consumed by the car going toward the HVAC system, battery heater, and other HV loads during the session. Previously, owners were only billed for the energy used to charge the battery during the charging session.

Tesla says that the new method should more “accurately reflect the value delivered to the customer and the cost incurred by Tesla,” which mirrors recent moves in its solar and home battery pricing strategy as well.

The automaker says that customers in “extreme climates” could see a difference of 10 to 25 kWh for the energy consumed during a charging session:

Owners may see a noticeable increase in billed kWh if they are using energy-consuming features while charging, e.g., air conditioning, heating etc. This is more likely in extreme climates and could be a 10-25 kWh difference from what a customer experienced previously, as states like California explore grid-stability uses for EVs during peak events.

Of course, this is applicable where Tesla is able to charge by the kWh for charging sessions. In some markets, regulations push Tesla to charge by the minute amid ongoing fights over charging control between utilities and private operators.

Electrek’s Take
It actually looks like an oversight from Tesla in the first place. It’s fair to charge for the total electricity used during a session, and not just what was used to charge your battery pack, since Tesla is paying for both, even as some states add EV ownership fees like the Texas EV fee that further shape costs.

However, I wish Tesla would have a clearer way to break down the charging sessions and their costs.

There have been some complaints about Tesla wrongly billing owners for charging sessions, and this is bound to create more confusion if people see a difference between the kWhs gained during charging and what is shown on the bill.

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Sycamore Energy Manitoba Hydro Lawsuit centers on alleged mismanagement of the solar rebate incentive program, project delays, inspection backlogs, and alleged customer interference, impacting renewable energy installations, contractors, and clean power investment across Manitoba.

Key Points

Claim alleging mismanagement of Manitoba's solar rebate, delays, and inducing customers to switch installers.

✅ Lawsuit alleges mismanaged solar rebate incentive program

✅ Delays in inspections left hundreds of projects incomplete

✅ Claims Hydro urged customers to switch installers for rebates

Sycamore Energy filed a statement of claim Monday in Manitoba Court of Queens Bench against Manitoba Hydro saying it badly mismanaged its Solar Energy Program, a dispute that comes as Canada's solar progress faces criticism nationwide.

The claim also noted the crown corporation caused significant financial and reputational damage to Sycamore Energy, echoing disputes like Ontario wind cancellation costs seen elsewhere.

The statement of claim says Manitoba Hydro was telling customers to find other companies to complete solar panel installations, even as Nova Scotia's solar charge debate has unfolded.

'I'm still waiting': dozens of Manitoba solar system installations in the queue under expired incentive program
This all comes after a pilot project was launched in the province in April 2016, which would allow people to apply for a rebate under the incentive program, while Saskatchewan adjusted solar credits in parallel, and the project would cover about 25 per cent of the installation costs.

The project ended in April 2018, but hundreds of approved projects had yet to be finished.

According to Manitoba Hydro, in November there were 252 approved projects awaiting completion by more than one contractor, and Sycamore Energy said it had about 100 of those projects, a dynamic seen as New England's solar growth strains grid upgrades in other regions.

At the time Sycamore Energy COO, Alex Stuart, blamed Manitoba Hydro for the delays, stating it took too long to get inspections after solar systems were installed.

Scott Powell, Manitoba Hydro’s director of corporate communications, said in November he disagreed with Sycamore Energy’s comments, even as Ontario moves to reintroduce renewables elsewhere.

In a news release, the company said it sold more installations under Manitoba Hydro’s Solar Energy Program compared to other companies and it was instrumental in helping set up standards for the program.

“Manitoba Hydro mismanaged the solar rebate program from the beginning. In the end, they targeted our company unfairly and unlawfully by inducing our customers to break their contracts with us. Manitoba Hydro told our customers they could get an extension to their rebate but only if they switched to different installers,” said Justin Phillips, CEO of Sycamore Energy in a news release.

“We would much rather be installing clean, effective solar power projects for our customers right now. The last thing we want to do is to be suing Manitoba Hydro, but we feel we have no choice. Their actions have cost us millions in lost business. They’ve also cost the province jobs, millions in private investment and a positive way forward to help combat climate change.”

Manitoba Hydro now has 20 days to respond to the action, and a recent Cornwall wind-farm ruling underscores the stakes.

When asked for a response from CTV News, a spokesperson for the Crown corporation said it hadn’t yet been made aware of the suit.

“If a statement of claim is filed and served, we’ll file a statement of defence in due course. As this matter is now apparently before the courts, we have no further comment,” the spokesperson said.

None of these allegations have been proven in court.

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Northvolt Montreal EV Battery Plant advances as a Quebec clean energy hub, leveraging hydroelectric power to supply EV batteries, strengthen North American supply chains, and support automakers' electrification with sustainable manufacturing and regional distribution.

Key Points

A Quebec-based EV battery facility using hydroelectric power to scale sustainable production for North America.

✅ Powered by Quebec hydro for lower-carbon cell manufacturing

✅ Strengthens North American EV supply chain resilience

✅ Creates local jobs, R&D, and advanced manufacturing skills

Northvolt, a prominent player in the electric vehicle (EV) battery industry, has reaffirmed its commitment to proceed with its battery plant project near Montreal as originally planned. This development marks a significant step forward in Northvolt's expansion strategy and signals confidence in Canada's role in the global EV market.

The decision to move forward with the EV battery plant project near Montreal underscores Northvolt's strategic vision to establish a strong foothold in North America's burgeoning electric vehicle sector. The plant is poised to play a crucial role in meeting the growing demand for sustainable battery solutions as automakers accelerate their transition towards electrification.

Located strategically in Quebec, a province known for its abundant hydroelectric power and supportive government policies towards clean energy initiatives, including major Canada-Quebec investments in battery assembly, the battery plant project aligns with Canada's commitment to promoting green technology and reducing carbon emissions. By leveraging Quebec's renewable energy resources, Northvolt aims to produce batteries with a lower carbon footprint compared to traditional manufacturing processes.

The EV battery plant is expected to contribute significantly to the local economy by creating jobs, stimulating economic growth, and fostering technological innovation in the region, much as a Niagara Region battery plant is catalyzing development in Ontario. As Northvolt progresses with its plans, collaboration with local stakeholders, including government agencies, educational institutions, and industry partners, will be pivotal in ensuring the project's success and maximizing its positive impact on the community.

Northvolt's decision to advance the battery plant project near Montreal also reflects broader trends in the global battery manufacturing landscape. With increasing emphasis on sustainability and supply chain resilience, companies like Northvolt are investing in diversified production capabilities, including projects such as a $1B B.C. battery plant, to meet regional market demands and reduce dependency on overseas suppliers.

Moreover, the EV battery plant project near Montreal represents a milestone in Canada's efforts to strengthen its position in the global electric vehicle supply chain, with EV assembly deals helping put the country in the race. By attracting investments from leading companies like Northvolt, Canada aims to build a robust ecosystem for electric vehicle manufacturing and innovation, driving economic competitiveness and environmental stewardship.

The plant's proximity to key markets in North America further enhances its strategic value, enabling efficient distribution of batteries to automotive manufacturers across the continent. This geographical advantage positions Northvolt to capitalize on the growing demand for electric vehicles in Canada, the United States, and beyond, supporting Canada-U.S. collaboration on supply chains and market growth.

Looking ahead, Northvolt's commitment to advancing the EV battery plant project near Montreal underscores its long-term vision and dedication to sustainable development. As the global electric vehicle market continues to evolve, alongside the U.S. auto sector's pivot to EVs, investments in battery manufacturing infrastructure will play a critical role in shaping the industry's future landscape and accelerating the adoption of clean transportation technologies.

In conclusion, Northvolt's affirmation to proceed with the EV battery plant project near Montreal represents a significant milestone in Canada's transition towards sustainable mobility solutions. By harnessing Quebec's renewable energy resources and fostering local partnerships, Northvolt aims to establish a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility that not only supports the growth of the electric vehicle sector but also contributes to Canada's leadership in clean technology innovation, bolstered by initiatives like Nova Scotia vehicle-to-grid pilots that strengthen grid readiness nationwide. As the project moves forward, its impact on economic growth, job creation, and environmental sustainability is expected to resonate positively both locally and globally.

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