UK sets new record for wind power generation


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Britain Wind Generation Record underscores onshore and offshore wind momentum, as National Grid ESO reported 20.91 GW, boosting zero-carbon electricity, renewables share, and grid stability amid milder weather, falling gas prices, and net zero goals.

 

Key Points

The Britain wind generation record is 20.91 GW, set on 30 Dec, driven by onshore and offshore turbines.

✅ Set on 30 Dec 2022 with peak output of 20.91 GW.

✅ Zero-carbon sources hit 87.2% of grid supply.

✅ Driven by onshore and offshore wind; ESO reported stability.

 

Britain has set a new record for wind generation as power from onshore and offshore turbines helped boost clean energy supplies late last year.

National Grid’s electricity system operator (ESO), which handles Great Britain’s grid operations, said that a new record for wind generation was set on 30 December, when 20.91 gigawatts (GW) were produced by turbines.

This represented the third time Britain’s fleet of wind turbines set new generation records in 2022. In May, National Grid had to ask some turbines in the west of Scotland to shut down, as the network was unable to store such a large amount of electricity when a then record 19.9GW of power was produced – enough to boil 3.5m kettles.

The ESO said a new record was also set for the share of electricity on the grid coming from zero-carbon sources – renewables and nuclear – which supplied 87.2% of total power. These sources have accounted for about 55% to 59% of power over the past couple of years.

The surge in wind generation represents a remarkable reversal in fortunes as a cold snap that enveloped Britain and Europe quickly turned to milder weather.

Power prices had soared as the freezing weather forced Britons to increase their heating use, pushing up demand for energy despite high bills.

The cold weather came with a period of low wind, reducing the production of Britain’s windfarms to close to zero.

Emergency coal-fired power units at Drax in North Yorkshire were put on standby but ultimately not used, while gas-fired generation accounted for nearly 60% of the UK’s power output at times.

However, milder weather in the UK and Europe in recent days has led to a reduction in demand from consumers and a fall in wholesale gas prices. It has also reduced the risk of power cuts this winter, which National Grid had warned could be a possibility.

Wind generation is increasingly leading the power mix in Britain and is seen as a crucial part of Britain’s move towards net zero. The prime minister, Rishi Sunak, is expected to overturn a moratorium on new onshore wind projects with a consultation on the matter due to run until March.

 

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Canada's largest electricity battery storage project coming to southwestern Ontario

Oneida Energy Storage Project, a 250 MW lithium-ion battery in Haldimand County, enhances Ontario's clean energy capacity, grid reliability, and peak demand management, developed with Six Nations partners and private-public collaboration.

 

Key Points

A 250 MW lithium-ion battery in Ontario storing power to stabilize the grid and deliver clean electricity.

✅ 250 MW lithium-ion grid-scale battery in Haldimand County

✅ Developed with Six Nations, Northland Power, NRStor, Aecon

✅ Enhances grid reliability, peak shaving, emissions reduction

 

The Ontario government announced it is working to build Canada's largest electricity battery storage project in Haldimand County, part of Ontario's push into energy storage amid a looming supply crunch. Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland made the announcement in Ohsweken, Ont.

The 250-megawatt Oneida Energy storage project is being developed in partnership with the Six Nations of the Grand River Development Corporation, Northland Power, NRStor and Aecon Group.

The Ontario government announced on Friday it is working to build Canada's largest electricity battery storage project in Haldimand County.

On Friday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland made the announcement in Ohsweken, Ont.

The 250-megawatt Oneida Energy storage project is being developed in partnership with the Six Nations of the Grand River Development Corporation, Northland Power, NRStor and Aecon Group.

“It will more than double the province's energy storage resources and provide enough electricity to power a city approximately the size of Oshawa,” said Ford, noting Ontario's growing battery storage expansion across the grid.

“We need to continue to find ways to keep our energy clean and green,” said Ford, including initiatives like the Hydrogen Innovation Fund to spur innovation.

The federal government said they are providing a further $50 million in funding, coinciding with national investments such as the B.C. battery plant to scale capacity.

The premier said the project will begin operating in 2025 and will more than double the amount of clean energy storage.

Officials with the Six Nations said they have invested in the project that will provide economic returns and 97 per cent of the construction workforce to build it.

"This project is an example of what is possible when private and public companies, multiple levels of government, and their agencies work alongside a progressive Indigenous partner in pursuit of innovative solutions,” said Matt Jamieson, President and CEO of Six nations of the Grand River Development Corporation. “As with all our development efforts, we have studied the project to ensure it aligns with our community values, we are confident the outcome will create ratepayer savings, and move us closer to a Net Zero future for our coming generations."

According to the province, it has directed the independent electricity system operator to enter into a 20-year contract for this project with a goal to grow the province's clean energy supply, alongside transmission efforts like the Lake Erie Connector to enhance reliability.

The province said the Oneida Energy storage project is expected to reduce emissions by between 2.2 to 4.1 million tonnes, the equivalent to taking up to 40,000 cars off the road.

The project will use large scale lithium batteries, with regional supply bolstered by the Niagara battery plant, to store surplus energy from the power grid then feed it back into the system when it’s needed.

“Power that is generated and it can’t be utilized, this system will help harness that, store it for a period of time, and it will maximize value for the rate payer,” said Jamieson.

Jamieson said he is proud that the Six Nations is a founding developer in the project.

The facility will not actually be in Six Nations. It will be near the community of Jarvis in Haldimand County.
For Six Nationals elected Chief Mark Hill, it’s a major win as Ontario's EV sector grows with the Oakville EV deal and related projects.

“We want to continue to be a driver. We want to show Canada that we can also be a part of green solution,” Hill said.

But Hill admitted the Six Nations Community remains deeply divided over a number of longstanding issues.

“We still have a lot of internal affairs within our own community that we have to deal with. I think it’s really time once and for all to come together and figure this out,” said Hill.

The traditional leadership said they were left out of the decision making.

“No voice of ours was even heard today in that building,” said Deyohowe:to, the chief of the Cayuga Snipe Clan.

According to the Cayuga Snipe Clan, consultation with the Haudenasauene council is required for this type of development but they said it didn't happen.

“We’ve never heard of this before. No one came to the community and said this was going to happen and for the community we are not going to let that happen,” said Deyohowe:to.

The Six Nations Development Corporation said it did reach out to the Haudenosaunee chiefs and sent multiple letters in 2021 inviting them to participate.

 

 

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California Takes the Lead in Electric Vehicle and Charging Station Adoption

California EV Adoption leads the U.S., with 37% of registered electric vehicles and 27% of charging locations, spanning Level 1, Level 2, and DC Fast stations, aligned with OCPI and boosted by CALeVIP funding.

 

Key Points

California EV adoption reflects the state's leading EV registrations and growth in private charging infrastructure.

✅ 37% of U.S. EVs, 27% of charging locations in 2022

✅ CALeVIP funding boosts public charging deployment

✅ OCPI-aligned data; EVs per charger rose to 75 in CA

 

California has consistently been at the forefront of electric vehicle (EV) adoption, with EV sales topping 20% in California underscoring this trend, and the proliferation of EV charging stations in the United States, maintaining this position since 2016. According to recent estimates from our State Energy Data System (SEDS), California accounts for 37% of registered light-duty EVs in the U.S. and 27% of EV charging locations as of the end of 2022.

The vehicle stock data encompass all registered on-road, light-duty vehicles and exclude any previous vehicle sales no longer in operation. The data on EV charging locations include both private and public access stations for Legacy, Level 1, Level 2, and DC Fast charging ports, excluding EV chargers in single-family residences. There is a data series break between 2020 and 2021, when the U.S. Department of Energy updated its data to align with the Open Charge Point Interface (OCPI) international standard, reflecting changes in the U.S. charging infrastructure landscape.

In 2022, the number of registered EVs in the United States, with U.S. EV sales soaring into 2024 nationwide, surged to six times its 2016 figure, growing from 511,600 to 3.1 million, while the number of U.S. charging locations nearly tripled, rising from 19,178 to 55,015. Over the same period, California saw its registered EVs more than quadruple, jumping from 247,400 to 1.1 million, and its charging locations tripled, increasing from 5,486 to 14,822.

California's share of U.S. EV registrations has slightly decreased in recent years as EV adoption has spread across the country, with Arizona EV ownership relatively high as well. In 2016, California accounted for approximately 48% of light-duty EVs in the United States, which was approximately 12 times more than the state with the second-highest number of EVs, Georgia. By 2022, California's share had decreased to around 37%, which was still approximately six times more than the state with the second-most EVs, Florida.

On the other hand, California's share of U.S. EV charging locations has risen slightly in recent years, as charging networks compete amid federal electrification efforts and partly due to the California Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Project (CALeVIP), which provides funding for the installation of publicly available EV charging stations. In 2016, approximately 25% of U.S. EV charging locations were in California, over four times as many as the state with the second-highest number, Texas. In 2022, California maintained its position with over four times as many EV charging locations as the state with the second-most, New York.

The growth in the number of registered EVs has outpaced the growth of EV charging locations in the United States, and in 2021 plug-in vehicles traveled 19 billion electric miles nationwide, underscoring utilization. In 2016, there were approximately 27 EVs per charging location on average in the country. Alaska had the highest ratio, with 67 EVs per charging location, followed by California with 52 vehicles per location.

In 2022, the average ratio was 55 EVs per charging location in the United States, raising questions about whether the grid can power an ongoing American EV boom ahead. New Jersey had the highest ratio, with 100 EVs per charging location, followed by California with 75 EVs per location.

 

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New Brunswick announces rebate program for electric vehicles

New Brunswick EV Rebates deliver stackable provincial and federal incentives for electric vehicles, used EVs, and home chargers, supporting NB Power infrastructure, lower GHG emissions, and climate goals with fast chargers across the province.

 

Key Points

Stackable provincial and federal incentives up to $10,000 for EV purchases, plus support for home charging.

✅ $5,000 new EVs; $2,500 used; stackable with federal $5,000

✅ 50% home charger rebate up to $750 through NB Power

✅ Supports GHG cuts, charging network growth, climate targets

 

New Brunswickers looking for an electric vehicle (EV) can now claim up to $10,000 in rebates from the provincial and federal governments.

The three-year provincial program was announced Thursday and will give rebates of $5,000 on new EVs and $2,500 on used ones. It closely mirrors the federal program and is stackable, meaning new owners will be able to claim up to $5,000 from the feds as well.

Minister of Environment and Climate Change Gary Crossman said the move is hoped to kickstart the province’s push toward a target of having 20,000 EVs on the road by 2030.

“This incentive has to make a positive difference,” Crossman said.

“I truly believe people have been waiting for it, they’ve been asking about it, and this will make a difference from today moving forward to put new or used cars in their hands.”

The first year of the program will cost $1.95 million, which will come from the $36 million in the Climate Change Fund and will be run by NB Power, whose public charging network has been expanding across the province. The department says if the full amount is used this year it could represent a reduction of 850 tonnes of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) annually.

Both the Liberal and Green parties welcomed the move calling it long overdue, but Green MLA Kevin Arseneau said it’s not a “miracle solution.”

“Yes, we need to electrify cars, but this kind of initiative without proper funding of public transportation, urban planning for biking … without this kind of global approach this is just another swipe of a sword in water,” he said.

Liberal environment critic Francine Landry says she hopes this will make the difference for those considering the purchase of an EV and says the government should consider further methods of incentivization like waiving registration fees.

The province’s adoption of EVs has not been overly successful so far, reflecting broader Atlantic EV buying interest trends across the region. At the end of 2020, there were 646 EVs registered in the province, far short of the 2,500 target set out in the Climate Action Plan. That was up significantly from the 437 at the end of 2019, but still a long way from the goal.

New Brunswick has a fairly expansive network of charging stations across the province, claiming to be the first “fully-connected province” in the country, and had hoped that the available infrastructure, including plans for new fast-charging stations on the Trans-Canada, would push adoption of non-emitting vehicles.

“In 2017 we had 11 chargers in the province, so we’ve come a long way from an infrastructure standpoint which I think is critical to promoting or having an electric vehicle network, or a number of electric vehicles operating in the province, and neighbouring N.L.’s fast-charging network shows similar progress,” said Deputy Minister of Natural Resources Tom Macfarlane at a meeting of the standing committee on climate change and environmental stewardship in January of 2020.

There are now 172 level two chargers and 83 fast chargers, while Labrador’s EV infrastructure still lags in neighbouring N.L. today. Level two chargers take between six and eight hours to charge a vehicle, while the fast chargers take about half an hour to get to 80 per cent charge.

The newly announced program will also cover 50 per cent of costs for a home charging station up to $750, similar to B.C. charger rebates that support home infrastructure, to further address infrastructure needs.

The New Brunswick Lung Association is applauding the rebate plan.

President and CEO Melanie Langille said about 15,000 Canadians, including 40 people from New Brunswick, die prematurely each year from air pollution. She said vehicle emissions account for about 30 per cent of the province’s air pollution.

“Electric vehicles are critical to reducing our greenhouse gas emissions,” said Langille. “New Brunswick has one of the highest per capita GHG emissions in Canada. But, because our electricity source in New Brunswick is primarily from non-emitting sources and regional initiatives like Nova Scotia’s vehicle-to-grid pilot are advancing grid integration, switching to an EV is an effective way for New Brunswickers to lower their GHG emissions.”

Langille said the lung association has been part of an electric vehicles advisory group in the province since 2014 and its research has shown this type of program is needed.

“The major barrier that is standing in the way of New Brunswickers adopting electric vehicles is the upfront costs,” Langille said. “So today’s announcement, and that it can be stacked on top of the existing federal rebates, is a huge step forward for us.”

 

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Volvo Trucks to launch complete range of electric trucks in Europe in 2021

Volvo Electric Heavy-Duty Trucks lead Europe’s e-mobility shift, meeting strict emissions rules with battery-electric drivelines, hydrogen fuel cell roadmaps, fast charging infrastructure, and autonomous freight solutions for regional haulage and urban construction.

 

Key Points

A battery-electric heavy truck range for haulage and urban construction, targeting zero emissions and compliance.

✅ Up to 44t GCW, ranges up to 300 km per charge

✅ Battery-electric now; hydrogen fuel cells targeted next

✅ Production from 2022; suited to haulage and construction

 

According to the report published by Allied Market Research, the global electric truck market generated $422.5M (approx €355.1M) in 2019 and is estimated to reach $1.89B (approx €1.58B) by 2027, registering a CAGR of 25.8% from 2020 to 2027, reflecting broader expectations that EV adoption within a decade will accelerate worldwide. 

The surge in government initiatives to promote e-mobility and stringent emission norms on vehicles using fossil fuels (petrol and diesel) is driving the growth of the global electric truck market, while shifts in the EV aftermarket are expected to reinforce this trend. 


Launching a range of electric trucks in 2021
Volvo is among the several companies, including early moves like Tesla's truck reveal efforts, trying to cash in on this popular and lucrative market. Recently, the company announced that it’s going to launch a complete heavy-duty range of trucks with electric drivelines starting in Europe in 2021. Next year, hauliers in Europe will be able to order all-electric versions of Volvo’s heavy-duty trucks. The sales will begin next year and volume production will start in 2022. 

“To reduce the impact of transport on the climate, we need to make a swift transition from fossil fuels to alternatives such as electricity. But the conditions for making this shift, and consequently the pace of the transition, vary dramatically across different hauliers and markets, depending on many variables such as financial incentives, access to charging infrastructure and type of transport operations,” explains Roger Alm, President Volvo Trucks.


Used for regional transport and urban construction operations
According to the company, it is now testing electric heavy-duty models – Volvo FH, FM, and FMX trucks, which will be used for regional transport and urban construction operations in Europe, and in the U.S., 70 Volvo VNR Electric trucks are being deployed in California initiatives as well. These Volvo trucks will offer a complete heavy-duty range with electric drivelines. These trucks will have a gross combination weight of up to 44 tonnes.

“Our chassis is designed to be independent of the driveline used. Our customers can choose to buy several Volvo trucks of the same model, with the only difference being that some are electric and others are powered by gas or diesel. As regards product characteristics, such as the driver’s environment, reliability, and safety, all our vehicles meet the same high standards. Drivers should feel familiar with their vehicles and be able to operate them safely and efficiently regardless of the fuel used,” says Alm.


Fossil free by 2040
Depending on the battery configuration the range could be up to 300 km, claims the company. Back in 2019, Volvo started manufacturing the Volvo FL Electric and FE Electric for city distribution and refuse operations, primarily in Europe, while in the van segment, Ford's all-electric Transit targets similar urban use cases. Volvo Trucks aims to start selling electric trucks powered by hydrogen fuel cells in the second half of this decade. Volvo Trucks’ objective is for its entire product range to be fossil-free by 2040.

Back in 2019, Swedish autonomous and electric freight mobility leader provider Einride’s Pod became the world’s first autonomous, all-electric truck to operate a commercial flow for DB Schenker with a permit on the public road. Last month, the company launched its next-generation Pod in the hopes to have it on the road starting from 2021, while major fleet commitments such as UPS's Tesla Semi pre-orders signal broader demand.

 

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Completion of 1st fast-charging network 'just the beginning' for electric car owners in N.L.

Newfoundland EV Fast-Charging Network enables DC fast charging along the Trans-Canada Highway, from Port aux Basques to St. John's, with Level 3 stations, reducing range anxiety and accelerating electric vehicle adoption.

 

Key Points

A DC fast charging corridor with Level 3 stations every 70 km, enabling EV road trips and easing range anxiety.

✅ 14 Level 3 DC fast chargers across the Trans-Canada Highway

✅ Charges most EVs to 80% in under an hour, $15/hr prorated

✅ Expansion planned into Labrador with 19 additional fast chargers

 

The first electric vehicle fast-charging network is now up and running across Newfoundland, which the province's main energy provider hopes will make road trips easier for electric car owners and encourage more drivers to go electric in the future.

With the last of the 14 charging stations coming online in Corner Brook earlier this month, drivers now have a place to charge up about every 70 kilometres along the Trans-Canada Highway, where 10 new fast-charging stations in N.B. are being planned, from Port aux Basques to St. John's, along with one in Gros Morne National Park.

Jennifer Williams, president & CEO of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, says many potential electric vehicle owners have been hesitant to give up on gasoline without fast chargers available across the island.

"The majority of people who were interested in EVs said one of the major barriers to them was indeed not having a fast-charging network that they could access," she said.

"We really believe that this is going to help people cross over and become an EV owner."

The charging network was first announced in October 2019, with an eye to having all 14 chargers up and running by the end of 2020. When work began, Newfoundland and Labrador was the only province in Canada without any publicly available Level 3 chargers, even as NB Power's public charging network was expanding elsewhere.

After some COVID-19 pandemic-related delays, the stations are now up and running and can charge most EVs to 80 per cent in less than an hour at a prorated cost of $15 an hour

"The pandemic did have some effect, but we're there now and we're really happy and this is just the beginning," said Williams.

Public charging becoming 'a non-issue'
That's encouraging for Jon Seary, an electric car owner and a co-founder of advocacy group Drive Electric N.L. He says the lack of fast chargers has been the "deal breaker" for many people looking to buy electric vehicles.

"Now you can drive right across the province. You can choose to stop at any of these to top up," Seary said.

Joe Butler, who is also a co-founder of the group, says the fast chargers have already made trips easier as they've come online across the island.

"In the past, it was a major impediment, really, to get anywhere, but now it's changed dramatically," said Butler.

"I just came back from Gros Morne and I had two stops and I was home, so the convenience factor if you just travel occasionally outside of town makes all the difference."

Jon Seary and Joe Butler stand with a slower level-two charging station on Kenmount Road in St. John's. 'We are at the cusp now of seeing a huge upswing in electric vehicle adoption,' Seary said. (Gavin Simms/CBC)
Seary said according to numbers from provincial motor vehicle registration, there were 195 electric cars on the road at the end of 2020, but he estimates that there are now closer to 300 vehicles in use in the province — with the potential for many more.

"We are at the cusp now of seeing a huge upswing in electric vehicle adoption," he said, even though Atlantic Canadians have been less inclined to buy EVs so far. 

"The cost of the cars is coming way down, and has come down. More places are selling them and the availability of public charging is becoming a non-issue as we put more and more charging stations out there."

The future is electric but the province's infrastructure is lagging behind, says non-profit
But Seary said there is still more work to be done to improve the province's charging infrastructure to catch up with other parts of the country. 

"We are lagging the rest of the country," Seary said, even as the N.W.T. encourages more residents to drive EVs through new initiatives.

"We have opportunities for federal funding for our charging infrastructure and it needs to be moving now. We have the surplus from Muskrat Falls to use and we have a climate that's not going to wait … this is the time to get going with this now."

Williams said together with Newfoundland Power, N.L. Hydro is now working on 19 more fast chargers to be placed elsewhere in the province and into Labrador, where the N.L. government has promoted EV adoption but infrastructure has lagged in some areas.

"We've heard very loudly and very clearly from the folks in Labrador, as well as other parts of the province, that they want to have charging stations in their neck of the woods too," she said.

"Putting them in Labrador, we believe that we'll help people get over that concern and that fear. There are EV owners in Labrador … so we believe it can work there as well."

With more chargers and electric vehicles comes less reliance on burning fossil fuels, and utilities like Nova Scotia Power are piloting vehicle-to-grid integration to amplify benefits, and Williams said 21 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions have already been offset with the chargers as they've come online over the past few months.

"It actually does equate to as if you had powered a whole house all year, but the important part to remember [is that] these are an enabler. Putting these in place is enabling people to purchase electric vehicles," she said.

"You do 90 per cent of your charging at home, so if we're seeing about 20 tonnes has been offset in the short period of time they've been in service, for the vehicles that are charging at home, imagine how much they're actually offsetting. We figure it's well in excess of 200 tons."

 

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Solar is now ‘cheapest electricity in history’, confirms IEA

IEA World Energy Outlook 2020 highlights solar power as the cheapest electricity, projects faster renewables growth, models net-zero pathways, assesses COVID-19 impacts, oil and gas demand, and policy scenarios including STEPS, SDS, and NZE2050.

 

Key Points

A flagship IEA report analyzing energy trends, COVID-19 impacts, renewables growth, and pathways to net-zero in 2050.

✅ Solar now the cheapest electricity in most major markets

✅ Scenarios: STEPS, SDS, NZE2050, plus delayed recovery case

✅ Oil and gas demand uncertain; CO2 peak needs stronger policy

 

The world’s best solar power schemes now offer the “cheapest…electricity in history” with the technology cheaper than coal and gas in most major countries.

That is according to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2020. The 464-page outlook, published today by the IEA, also outlines the “extraordinarily turbulent” impact of coronavirus and the “highly uncertain” future of global energy use and progress in the global energy transition over the next two decades.

Reflecting this uncertainty, this year’s version of the highly influential annual outlook offers four “pathways” to 2040, all of which see a major rise in renewables across markets. The IEA’s main scenario has 43% more solar output by 2040 than it expected in 2018, partly due to detailed new analysis showing that solar power is 20-50% cheaper than thought.

Despite a more rapid rise for renewables and a “structural” decline for coal, the IEA says it is too soon to declare a peak in global oil use, unless there is stronger climate action. Similarly, it says demand for gas could rise 30% by 2040, unless the policy response to global warming steps up.

This means that, while global CO2 emissions have effectively peaked flatlining in 2019 according to the IEA, they are “far from the immediate peak and decline” needed to stabilise the climate. The IEA says achieving net-zero emissions will require “unprecedented” efforts from every part of the global economy, not just the power sector.

For the first time, the IEA includes detailed modeling of a 1.5C pathway that reaches global net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. It says individual behaviour change, such as working from home “three days a week”, would play an “essential” role in reaching this new “net-zero emissions by 2050 case” (NZE2050).

Future scenarios
The IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) arrives every autumn and contains some of the most detailed and heavily scrutinised analysis of the global energy system. Over hundreds of densely packed pages, it draws on thousands of datapoints and the IEA’s World Energy Model.

The outlook includes several different scenarios, to reflect uncertainty over the many decisions that will affect the future path of the global economy, as well as the route taken out of the coronavirus crisis during the “critical” next decade. The WEO also aims to inform policymakers by showing how their plans would need to change if they want to shift onto a more sustainable path, including creating the right clean electricity investment incentives to accelerate progress.

This year it omits the “current policies scenario” (CPS), which usually “provides a baseline…by outlining a future in which no new policies are added to those already in place”. This is because “[i]t is difficult to imagine this ‘business as-usual’ approach prevailing in today’s circumstances”.

Those circumstances are the unprecedented fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, which remains highly uncertain as to its depth and duration. The crisis is expected to cause a dramatic decline in global energy demand in 2020, with oil demand also dropping sharply as fossil fuels took the biggest hit.

The main WEO pathway is again the “stated policies scenario” (STEPS, formerly NPS). This shows the impact of government pledges to go beyond the current policy baseline. Crucially, however, the IEA makes its own assessment of whether governments are credibly following through on their targets.

The report explains:

“The STEPS is designed to take a detailed and dispassionate look at the policies that are either in place or announced in different parts of the energy sector. It takes into account long-term energy and climate targets only to the extent that they are backed up by specific policies and measures. In doing so, it holds up a mirror to the plans of today’s policy makers and illustrates their consequences, without second-guessing how these plans might change in future.”

The outlook then shows how plans would need to change to plot a more sustainable path, highlighting efforts to replace fossil fuels with electricity in time to meet climate goals. It says its “sustainable development scenario” (SDS) is “fully aligned” with the Paris target of holding warming “well-below 2C…and pursuing efforts to limit [it] to 1.5C”. (This interpretation is disputed.)

The SDS sees CO2 emissions reach net-zero by 2070 and gives a 50% chance of holding warming to 1.65C, with the potential to stay below 1.5C if negative emissions are used at scale.

The IEA has not previously set out a detailed pathway to staying below 1.5C with 50% probability, with last year’s outlook only offering background analysis and some broad paragraphs of narrative.

For the first time this year, the WEO has “detailed modelling” of a “net-zero emissions by 2050 case” (NZE2050). This shows what would need to happen for CO2 emissions to fall to 45% below 2010 levels by 2030 on the way to net-zero by 2050, with a 50% chance of meeting the 1.5C limit, with countries such as Canada's net-zero electricity needs in focus to get there.

The final pathway in this year’s outlook is a “delayed recovery scenario” (DRS), which shows what might happen if the coronavirus pandemic lingers and the global economy takes longer to recover, with knock-on reductions in the growth of GDP and energy demand.

 

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