Toronto close to adopting green rooftop bylaw

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Toronto is poised to become the first city in North America to make green roofs mandatory on most new buildings and set standards for their construction.

A city committee considered a proposed bylaw that would require roofs on new buildings with an area of 5,000 square metres or greater to be 30% to 60% covered by vegetation. The bigger the building, the more planted space it would have to have — otherwise fines of up to $100,000 could be levied.

As drafted, the bylaw would cover mid-to high-rise condos, retail space and office towers, but exempt low-rise, large-scale industrial, nonprofit housing and public buildings such as schools.

But even as Toronto's powerful development industry was urging the city to slow down and keep green roofs strictly voluntary, local politicians were complaining the draft bylaw was too cautious for a metropolis vying to be the most environmentally minded on the continent.

Deputy Mayor Joe Pantalone, who helped bring the city's first power-generating windmill to the Exhibition grounds, said he was "disappointed" the first draft of the bylaw was so "tepid."

Mr. Pantalone asked city staff to come back in a month with a proposal that would include schools, low-rise buildings on "Main Street" and even private residences.

"Either we are the leading city in the world or we're the ones who looked in the mirror and got scared," he said.

BILD — the Toronto and GTA Building Industry and Land Development Association — was quick to urge city politicians to reconsider.

The association sent a letter to the city's chief planner expressing reservations and proposing a pilot project first instead of a full-scale bylaw.

"We have significant concerns with the city's proposal to require and govern the construction of green roofs. We continue to advocate that green roofs be implemented on a voluntary basis," it stated.

"If the home-building and development industry are provided with various incentives, this approach would assist the city with its objectives, while not forcing green roofs on those who may choose to use other forms of sustainable development for their projects."

Since his election in 2003, Toronto's hybrid-driving Mayor David Miller has put the environment front-and-centre on the municipal agenda, setting up a LiveGreen office to promote eco-friendly living, offering rebates for low-flush toilets, banning bottled water sales at city hall, taking on the coffee industry over the disposable cup and studying climate change within civic boundaries.

A new city report touts the environmental benefits of rooftops covered largely in plants and organic material as opposed to asphalt or metal.

These include "reducing the urban heat island effect and energy consumption, improving air quality and storm water management and creating opportunities for biodiversity and habitat creation and beautification of the city."

Steve Daniels, who sat on a green roof technical advisory committee representing BILD, said developers are interested in working with the city to create more green roofs. But he said they can add "hundreds of thousands of dollars... if not more" to the cost of a project.

"The range can be anywhere on the lower end from $18 a square foot to around $28 a square foot. It's somewhere in that range that we're looking at for an added cost," Mr. Daniels said.

"It's always a concern. Compounded with development charges, compounded with application fees that go up, it's a cumulative effect. So this is just another added cost that has to be factored in at the end of the day."

On top of that, he said there is trepidation about how the new bylaw, which derives its authority from the City of Toronto Act, would mesh with the Ontario Building Code and other city zoning requirements, such as those that call for outdoor amenities for high-rise condos. Those amenities often end up on the rooftop.

Stephen Upton, vice-president development planning at building giant Tridel, pointed out that once installed, the rooftop shrubbery has to be left untouched for two years to allow it to take root.

More information is also required about the longevity of green roofs and how much should be budgeted in a condo corporation's building fund for future replacement.

"I think there's still quite a bit left to be understood, digested and refined," Mr. Upton said. "Toronto green standards, those are things that shouldn't be mandated but should be encouraged."

But while the developers were balking at the bylaw, environmental groups were urging Toronto to move further and faster.

Steven Peck, president of the 10-year-old Toronto-based group Green Roofs for Healthy Cities, said the city's efforts could create jobs and be on the "leading edge" of the technology.

"We're very concerned that there's been a watering down of the requirements and we're concerned it will set a negative precedent for cities elsewhere in North America," Mr. Peck said, adding Toronto is "perched on the edge of really starting to get serious about implementing green roofs."

The issue will return to the planning and growth committee for further debate on May 6.

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U.S. offshore wind power about to soar

US Offshore Wind Lease Sales signal soaring renewable energy growth, drawing oil and gas developers, requiring BOEM auctions, seismic surveying, transmission planning, with $70B investment, 8 GW milestones, and substantial job creation in coastal communities.

 

Key Points

BOEM-run auctions granting areas for offshore wind, spurring projects, investment, and jobs in federal waters.

✅ $70B investment needed by 2030 to meet current demand

✅ 8 GW early buildout could create 40,000 US jobs

✅ Requires BOEM auctions, seismic surveying, transmission corridors

 

Recent offshore lease sales demonstrate that not only has offshore wind arrived in the U.S., but it is clearly set to soar, as forecasts point to a $1 trillion global market in the coming decades. The level of participation today, especially from seasoned offshore oil and gas developers, exemplifies that the offshore industry is an advocate for the 'all of the above' energy portfolio.

Offshore wind could generate 160,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs, with 40,000 new U.S. jobs with the first 8 gigawatts of production, while broader forecasts see a quarter-million U.S. wind jobs within four years.

In fact, a recent report from the Special Initiative on Offshore Wind (SIOW), said that offshore wind investment in U.S. waters will require $70 billion by 2030 just based on current demand, and the UK's rapid scale-up offers a relevant benchmark.

Maintaining this tremendous level of interest from offshore wind developers requires a reliable inventory of regularly scheduled offshore wind sales and the ability to develop those resources. Coastal communities and extreme environmental groups opposing seismic surveying and the issuance of incidental harassment authorizations under the Marine Mammal Protection Act may literally take the wind out of these sales. Just as it is for offshore oil and gas development, seismic surveying is vital for offshore wind development, specifically in the siting of wind turbines and transmission corridors.

Unfortunately, a long-term pipeline of wind lease sales does not currently exist. In fact, with the exception of a sale proposed offshore New York offshore wind or potentially California in 2020, there aren't any future lease sales scheduled, leaving nothing upon which developers can plan future investments and prompting questions about when 1 GW will be on the grid nationwide.

NOIA is dedicated to working with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and coastal communities, consumers, energy producers and other stakeholders, drawing on U.K. wind lessons where applicable, in working through these challenges to make offshore wind a reality for millions of Americans.

 

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3 Reasons Why Cheap Abundant Electricity Is Getting Closer To Reality

Renewable Energy Breakthroughs drive quantum dots solar efficiency, Air-gen protein nanowires harvesting humidity, and cellulose membranes for flow batteries, enabling printable photovoltaics, 24/7 clean power, and low-cost grid storage at commercial scale.

 

Key Points

Advances like quantum dot solar, Air-gen, and cellulose flow battery membranes that improve clean power and storage.

✅ Quantum dots raise solar conversion efficiency, are printable

✅ Air-gen harvests electricity from humidity with protein nanowires

✅ Cellulose membranes cut flow battery costs, aid grid storage

 

Science never sleeps. The quest to find new and better ways to do things continues in thousands of laboratories around the world. Today, the global economy is based on the use of electricity, and one analysis shows wind and solar potential could meet 80% of US demand, underscoring what is possible. If there was a way to harness all the energy from the sun that falls on the Earth every day, there would be enough of electricity available to meet the needs of every man, woman, and child on the planet with plenty left over. That day is getting closer all the time. Here are three reasons why.

Quantum Dots Make Better Solar Panels
According to Science Daily, researchers at the University of Queensland have set a new world record for the conversion of solar energy to electricity using quantum dots — which pass electrons between one another and generate electrical current when exposed to solar energy in a solar cell device. The solar devices they developed have beaten the existing solar conversion record by 25%.

“Conventional solar technologies use rigid, expensive materials. The new class of quantum dots the university has developed are flexible and printable,” says professor Lianzhou Wang, who leads the research team. “This opens up a huge range of potential applications, including the possibility to use it as a transparent skin to power cars, planes, homes and wearable technology. Eventually it could play a major part in meeting the United Nations’ goal to increase the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.”

“This new generation of quantum dots is compatible with more affordable and large-scale printable technologies,” he adds. “The near 25% improvement in efficiency we have achieved over the previous world record is important. It is effectively the difference between quantum dot solar cell technology being an exciting prospect and being commercially viable.” The research was published on January 20 in the journal Nature Energy.

Electricity From Thin Air
Science Daily also reports that researchers at UMass Amherst also have interesting news. They claim they created a device called an Air-gen, short for air powered generator. (Note: recently we reported on other research that makes electricity from rainwater.) The device uses protein nanowires created by a microbe called Geobacter. Those nanowires can generate electricity from thin air by tapping the water vapor present naturally in the atmosphere. “We are literally making electricity out of thin air. The Air-gen generates clean energy 24/7. It’s the most amazing and exciting application of protein nanowires yet,” researchers Jun Yao and Derek Lovely say. There work was published February 17 in the journal Nature.

The new technology developed in Yao’s lab is non-polluting, renewable, and low-cost. It can generate power even in areas with extremely low humidity such as the Sahara Desert. It has significant advantages over other forms of renewable energy including solar and wind, Lovley says, because unlike these other renewable energy sources, the Air-gen does not require sunlight or wind, and “it even works indoors,” a point underscored by ongoing grid challenges that slow full renewable adoption.

Yao says, “The ultimate goal is to make large-scale systems. For example, the technology might be incorporated into wall paint that could help power your home. Or, we may develop stand-alone air-powered generators that supply electricity off the grid, and in parallel others are advancing bio-inspired fuel cells that could complement such devices. Once we get to an industrial scale for wire production, I fully expect that we can make large systems that will make a major contribution to sustainable energy production. This is just the beginning of a new era of protein based electronic devices.”

Improved Membranes For Flow Batteries From Cellulose
Storing energy is almost as important to decarbonizing the environment as making it in the first place, with the rise of affordable solar batteries improving integration.  There are dozens if not hundreds of ways to store electricity and they all work to one degree or another. The difference between which ones are commercially viable and ones that are not often comes down to money.

Flow batteries — one approach among many, including fuel cells for renewable storage — use two liquid electrolytes — one positively charged and one negatively charged — separated by a membrane that allows electrons to pass back and forth between them. The problem is, the liquids are highly corrosive. The membranes used today are expensive — more than $1,300 per square meter.

Phys.org reports that Hongli Zhu, an assistant professor of mechanical and industrial engineering at Northeastern University, has successfully created a membrane for use in flow batteries that is made from cellulose and costs just $147.68 per square meter. Reducing the cost of something by 90% is the kind of news that gets people knocking on your door.

The membrane uses nanocrystals derived from cellulose in combination with a polymer known as polyvinylidene fluoride-hexafluoropropylene.  The naturally derived membrane is especially efficient because its cellular structure contains thousands of hydroxyl groups, which involve bonds of hydrogen and oxygen that make it easy for water to be transported in plants and trees.

In flow batteries, that molecular makeup speeds the transport of protons as they flow through the membrane. “For these materials, one of the challenges is that it is difficult to find a polymer that is proton conductive and that is also a material that is very stable in the flowing acid,” Zhu says.

Cellulose can be extracted from natural sources including algae, solid waste, and bacteria. “A lot of material in nature is a composite, and if we disintegrate its components, we can use it to extract cellulose,” Zhu says. “Like waste from our yard, and a lot of solid waste that we don’t always know what to do with.”

Flow batteries can store large amounts of electricity over long periods of time — provided the membrane between the storage tanks doesn’t break down. To store more electricity, simply make the tanks larger, which makes them ideal for grid storage applications where there is often plenty of room to install them. Slashing the cost of the membrane will make them much more attractive to renewable energy developers and help move the clean energy revolution forward.

The Takeaway
The fossil fuel crazies won’t give up easily. They have too much to lose and couldn’t care less if life on Earth ceases to exist for a few million years, just so long as they get to profit from their investments. But they are experiencing a death of a thousand cuts. None of the breakthroughs discussed above will end thermal power generation all by itself, but all of them, together with hundreds more just like them happening every day, every week, and every month, even as we confront clean energy's hidden costs across supply chains, are slowly writing the epitaph for fossil fuels.

And here’s a further note. A person of Chinese ancestry is the leader of all three research efforts reported on above. These are precisely the people being targeted by the United States government at the moment as it ratchets up its war on immigrants and anybody who cannot trace their ancestry to northern Europe. Imagine for a moment what will happen to America when researchers like them depart for countries where they are welcome instead of despised. 

 

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Some old dams are being given a new power: generating clean electricity

Hydroelectric retrofits for unpowered dams leverage turbines to add renewable capacity, bolster grid reliability, and enable low-impact energy storage, supporting U.S. and Canada decarbonization goals with lower costs, minimal habitat disruption, and climate resilience.

 

Key Points

They add turbines to existing dams to make clean power, stabilize the grid, and offer low-impact storage at lower cost.

✅ Lower capex than new dams; minimal habitat disruption

✅ Adds firming and storage to support wind and solar

✅ New low-head turbines unlock more retrofit sites

 

As countries race to get their power grids off fossil fuels to fight climate change, there's a big push in the U.S. to upgrade dams built for purposes such as water management or navigation with a feature they never had before — hydroelectric turbines. 

And the strategy is being used in parts of Canada, too, with growing interest in hydropower from Canada supplying New York and New England.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration says only three per cent of 90,000 U.S. dams currently generate electricity. A 2012 report from the U.S. Department of Energy found that those dams have 12,000 megawatts (MW) of potential hydroelectric generation capacity. (According to the National Hydropower Association, 1 MW can power 750 to 1,000 homes. That means 12,000 MW should be able to power more than nine million homes.)

As of May 2019, there were projects planned to convert 32 unpowered dams to add 330 MW to the grid over the next several years.

One that was recently completed was the Red Rock Hydroelectric Project, a 60-year-old flood control dam on the Des Moines River in Iowa that was retrofitted in 2014 to generate 36.4 MW at normal reservoir levels, and up to 55 MW at high reservoir levels and flows. It started feeding power to the grid this spring, and is expected to generate enough annually to supply power to 18,000 homes.

It's an approach that advocates say can convert more of the grid from fossil fuels to clean energy, often with a lower cost and environmental impact than building new dams.

Hydroelectric facilities can also be used for energy storage, complementing intermittent clean energy sources such as wind and solar with pumped storage to help maintain a more reliable, resilient grid.

The Nature Conservancy and the World Wildlife Fund are two environmental groups that oppose new hydro dams because they can block fish migration, harm water quality, damage surrounding ecosystems and release methane and CO2, and in some regions, Western Canada drought has reduced hydropower output as reservoirs run low. But they say adding turbines to non-powered dams can be part of a shift toward low-impact hydro projects that can support expansion of solar and wind power.

Paul Norris, president of the Ontario Waterpower Association, said there's typically widespread community support for such projects in his province amid ongoing debate over whether Ontario is embracing clean power in its future plans. "Any time that you can better use existing assets, I think that's a good thing."

New turbine technology means water doesn't need to fall from as great a height to generate power, providing opportunities at sites that weren't commercially viable in the past, Norris said, with recent investments such as new turbines in Manitoba showing what is possible.

In Ontario, about 1,000 unpowered dams are owned by various levels of government. "With the appropriate policy framework, many of these assets have the potential to be retrofitted for small hydro," Norris wrote in a letter to Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator this year as part of a discussion on small-scale local energy generation resources.

He told CBC that several such projects are already in operation, such as a 950 kW retrofit of the McLeod Dam at the Moira River in Belleville, Ont., in 2008. 

Four hydro stations were going to be added during dam refurbishment on the Trent-Severn Waterway, but they were among 758 renewable energy projects cancelled by Premier Doug Ford's government after his election in 2018, a move examined in an analysis of Ontario's dirtier electricity outlook and its implications.

Patrick Bateman, senior vice-president of Waterpower Canada, said such dam retrofit projects are uncommon in most provinces. "I don't see it being a large part of the future electricity generation capacity."

He said there has been less movement on retrofitting unpowered dams in Canada compared to the U.S., because:

There are a lot more opportunities in Canada to refurbish large, existing hydro-generating stations to boost capacity on a bigger scale.

There's less growth in demand for clean energy, because more of Canada's grid is already non-carbon-emitting (80 per cent) compared to the U.S. (40 per cent).

Even so, Norris thinks Canadians should be looking at all opportunities and options when it comes to transitioning the grid away from fossil fuels, including retrofitting non-powered dams, especially as a recent report highlights Canada's looming power problem over the coming decades.

"If we're going to be serious about addressing the inevitable challenges associated with climate change targets and net zero, it really is an all-of-the-above approach."

 

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Court reinstates constitutional challenge to Ontario's hefty ‘global adjustment’ electricity charge

Ontario Global Adjustment Charge faces constitutional scrutiny as a regulatory charge vs tax; Court of Appeal revives case over electricity pricing, feed-in tariff contracts, IESO policy, and hydro rate impacts on consumers and industry.

 

Key Points

A provincial electricity fee funding generator contracts, now central to a court fight over tax versus regulatory charge.

✅ Funds gap between market price and contracted generator rates

✅ At issue: regulatory charge vs tax under constitutional law

✅ Linked to feed-in tariff, IESO policy, and hydro rate hikes

 

Ontario’s court of appeal has decided that a constitutional challenge of a steep provincial electricity charge should get its day in court, overturning a lower-court judgment that had dismissed the legal bid.

Hamilton, Ont.-based National Steel Car Ltd. launched the challenge in 2017, saying Ontario’s so-called global adjustment charge was unconstitutional because it is a tax — not a valid regulatory charge — that was not passed by the legislature.

The global adjustment funds the difference between the province’s hourly electricity price and the price guaranteed under contracts to power generators. It is “the component that covers the cost of building new electricity infrastructure in the province, maintaining existing resources, as well as providing conservation and demand management programs,” the province’s Independent Electricity System Operator says.

However, the global adjustment now makes up most of the commodity portion of a household electricity bill, and its costs have ballooned, as regulators elsewhere consider a proposed 14% rate hike in Nova Scotia.

Ontario’s auditor general said in 2015 that global adjustment fees had increased from $650 million in 2006 to more than $7 billion in 2014. She added that consumers would pay $133 billion in global adjustment fees from 2015 to 2032, after having already paid $37 billion from 2006 to 2014.

National Steel Car, which manufactures steel rail cars and faces high electricity rates that hurt Ontario factories, said its global adjustment costs went from $207,260 in 2008 to almost $3.4 million in 2016, according to an Ontario Court of Appeal decision released on Wednesday.

The company claimed the global adjustment was a tax because one of its components funds electricity procurement contracts under a “feed-in tariff” program, or FIT, which National Steel Car called “the main culprit behind the dramatic price increases for electricity,” the decision said.

Ontario’s auditor general said the FIT program “paid excessive prices to renewable energy generators.” The program has been ended, but contracts awarded under it remain in place.


National Steel Car claimed the FIT program “was actually designed to accomplish social goals unrelated to the generation of electricity,” such as helping rural and indigenous communities, and was therefore a tax trying to help with policy goals.

“The appellant submits that the Policy Goals can be achieved by Ontario in several ways, just not through the electricity pricing formula,” the decision said.

National Steel Car also argued the global adjustment violated a provincial law that requires the government to hold a referendum for new taxes.

“The appellant’s principal claim is that the Global Adjustment was a ‘colourable attempt to disguise a tax as a regulatory charge with the purpose of funding the costs of the Policy Goals,’” the decision said. “The appellant pressed this argument before the motion judge and before this court. The motion judge did not directly or adequately address it.”

The Ontario government applied to have the challenge thrown out for having “no reasonable cause of action,” and a Superior Court judge did so in 2018, saying the global adjustment is not a tax.

National Steel Car appealed the decision, and the decision published Wednesday allowed the appeal, set aside the lower-court judgment, and will send the case back to Superior Court, where it could get a full hearing.

“The appellant’s claim is sufficiently plausible on the evidentiary record it put forward that the applications should not have been dismissed on a pleadings motion before the development of a full record,” wrote Justice Peter D. Lauwers. “It is not plain, obvious and beyond doubt that the Global Adjustment, and particularly the challenged component, is properly characterized as a valid regulatory charge and not as an impermissible tax.”

Jerome Morse of Morse Shannon LLP, one of National Steel Car’s lawyers, said the Ontario government would now have 60 days to decide whether to seek permission to appeal to the Supreme Court of Canada.

“What the court has basically said is, ‘this is a plausible argument, here are the reasons why it’s plausible, there was no answer to this,’” Morse told the Financial Post.

Ontario and the IESO had supported the lower-court decision, but there has been a change in government since the challenge was first launched, with Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford replacing the Liberals and Kathleen Wynne in power. The Liberals had launched a plan aimed at addressing hydro costs before losing in a 2018 election, the main thrust of which had been to refinance global adjustment costs.

Wednesday’s decision states that “Ontario’s counsel advised the court that the current Ontario government ‘does not agree with the former government’s electricity procurement policy (since-repealed).’

“The government’s view is that: ‘The solution does not lie with the courts, but instead in the political arena with political actors,’” it adds.

A spokesperson for Ontario Energy Minister Greg Rickford said in an email that they are reviewing the decision but “as this matter is in the appeal period, it would be inappropriate to comment.” 

Ontario had also requested to stay the matter so a regulator, the Ontario Energy Board, could weigh in, while the Nova Scotia regulator approved a 14% hike in a separate case.

“However, Ontario only sought this relief from the motion judge in the alternative, and given the motion judge’s ultimate decision, she did not rule on the stay,” Thursday’s decision said. “It would be premature for this court to rule on the issue, although it seems incongruous for Ontario to argue that the Superior Court is the convenient forum in which to seek to dismiss the applications as meritless, but that it is not the convenient forum for assessing the merits of the applications.”

National Steel Car’s challenge bears a resemblance to the constitutional challenges launched by Ontario and other provinces over the federal government’s carbon tax, but Justice Lauwers wrote “that the federal legislative scheme under consideration in those cases is distinctly different from the legislation at issue in this appeal.”

“Nothing in those decisions impacts this appeal,” the judge added.
 

 

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Overturning statewide vote, Maine court energizes Hydro-Quebec's bid to export power

Maine Hydropower Transmission Line revived by high court after referendum challenge, advancing NECEC, Hydro-Quebec supply, Central Maine Power partnership, clean energy integration, grid reliability, and lower rates across New England pending land-lease ruling.

 

Key Points

A court-revived NECEC line delivering 1,200 MW of Hydro-Quebec hydropower via CMP to strengthen the New England grid.

✅ Maine high court deems retroactive referendum unconstitutional

✅ Pending state land lease case may affect final route

✅ Project could lower rates and cut emissions in New England

 

Maine's highest court on Tuesday breathed new life into a $1-billion US transmission line that aims to serve as conduit for Canadian hydropower, after construction starts drew scrutiny, ruling that a statewide vote rebuking the project was unconstitutional.

The Supreme Judicial Court ruled that the retroactive nature of the referendum last year violated the project developer's constitutional rights, sending it back to a lower court for further proceedings.

The court did not rule in a separate case that focuses on a lease for a 1.6-kilometre portion of the proposed power line that crosses state land.

Central Maine Power's parent company and Hydro-Québec teamed up on the project that would supply up to 1,200 megawatts of Canadian hydropower, amid the ongoing Maine-Quebec corridor debate in the region. That's enough electricity for one million homes.

Most of the proposed 233-kilometre power transmission line would be built along existing corridors, but a new 85-kilometre section was needed to reach the Canadian border, echoing debates around the Northern Pass clash in New Hampshire.

Workers were already clearing trees and setting poles when the governor asked for work to be suspended after the referendum in November 2021, mirroring New Hampshire's earlier rejection of a Quebec-Massachusetts proposal that rerouted regional plans. The Maine Department of Environmental Protection later suspended its permit, but that could be reversed depending on the outcome of legal proceedings.

The high court was asked to weigh in on two separate lawsuits. Developers sought to declare the referendum unconstitutional while another lawsuit focused on a lease allowing transmission lines to cross a short segment of state-owned land.

Supporters say bold projects such as this one, funded by ratepayers in Massachusetts, are necessary to battle climate change and introduce additional electricity into a region that's heavily reliant on natural gas, which can cause spikes in energy costs, as seen with Nova Scotia rate increases recently across the Atlantic region.

Critics say the project's environmental benefits are overstated — and that it would harm the woodlands in western Maine.

It was the second time the Supreme Judicial Court was asked to weigh in on a referendum aimed at killing the project. The first referendum proposal never made it onto the ballot after the court raised constitutional concerns.

Although the project is funded by Massachusetts ratepayers, the introduction of so much electricity to the grid would serve to stabilize or reduce electricity rates for all consumers, proponents contend, even as Manitoba Hydro rate hikes face opposition elsewhere.

The referendum on the project was the costliest in Maine history, topping $90 million US and underscoring deep divisions.

The high-stakes campaign put environmental and conservation groups at odds, and pitted utilities backing the project, amid the Hydro One-Avista backlash, against operators of fossil fuel-powered plants that stand to lose money.

 

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Ontario Poised to Miss 2030 Emissions Target

Ontario Poised to Miss 2030 Emissions Target highlights how rising greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation and natural gas power plants threaten Ontario’s climate goals, environmental sustainability, and clean energy transition efforts amid growing economic and policy challenges.

 

Why is Ontario Poised to Miss 2030 Emissions Target?

Ontario Poised to Miss 2030 Emissions Target examines the province’s setback in meeting climate goals due to higher power-sector emissions and shifting energy policies.

✅ Rising greenhouse gas emissions from gas-fired electricity generation

✅ Climate policy uncertainty and missed environmental targets

✅ Balancing clean energy transition with economic pressures

Ontario’s path toward meeting its 2030 greenhouse gas emissions target has taken a sharp turn for the worse, according to internal government documents obtained by Global News. The province, once on track to surpass its reduction goals, is now projected to miss them—largely due to rising emissions from electricity generation, even as the IEA net-zero electricity report highlights rising demand nationwide.

In October 2024, the Ford government’s internal analysis indicated that Ontario was on track to reduce emissions by 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2030, effectively exceeding its target. But a subsequent update in January 2025 revealed a grim reversal. The new forecast showed an increase of about eight megatonnes (Mt) of emissions compared to the previous model, with most of the rise attributed to the province’s energy policies.

“This forecast is about 8 Mt higher than the October 2024 forecast, mainly due to higher electricity sector emissions that reflect the latest ENERGY/IESO energy planning and assumptions,” the internal document stated.

While the analysis did not specify which policy shifts triggered the change, experts point to Ontario’s growing reliance on natural gas. The use of gas-fired power plants has surged to fill temporary gaps created by nuclear refurbishment projects and other grid constraints, even as renewable energy’s role grows. In fact, natural gas generation in early 2025 reached its highest level since 2012.

The internal report cited “changing electricity generation,” nuclear power refurbishment, and “policy uncertainty” as major risks to achieving the province’s climate goals. But the situation may be even worse than the government’s updated forecast suggests.

On Wednesday, Ontario’s auditor general warned that the January projections were overly optimistic. The watchdog’s new report concluded the province could fall even further behind its 2030 emissions target, noting that reductions had likely been overestimated in several sectors, including transportation—such as electric vehicle sales—and waste management. “An even wider margin” of missed goals was now expected, the auditor said.

Environment Minister Todd McCarthy defended the government’s position, arguing that climate goals must be balanced against economic realities. “We cannot put families’ financial, household budgets at risk by going off in a direction that’s not achievable,” McCarthy said.

The minister declined to commit to new emissions targets beyond 2030—or even to confirm that the existing goals would be met—but insisted efforts were ongoing. “We are continuing to meet our commitment to at least try to meet our commitment for the 2030 target,” he told reporters. “But targets are not outcomes. We believe in achievable outcomes, not unrealistic objectives.”

Environmental advocates warn that Ontario’s reliance on fossil-fuel generation could lock the province into higher emissions for years, undermining national efforts to decarbonize Canada’s electricity grid. With cleaning up Canada’s electricity expected to play a central role in both industrial growth and climate action, the province’s backslide represents a significant setback for Canada’s overall emissions strategy.

Other provinces face similar challenges; for example, B.C. is projected to miss its 2050 targets by a wide margin.

As Ontario weighs its next steps, the tension between energy security, affordability, and environmental responsibility continues to define the province’s path toward a lower-carbon future and Canada’s 2050 net-zero target over the long term.

 

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