Company sees big breakthrough in solar costs

By East Valley Scottsdale Tribune


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First Solar, the Tempe-based producer of photovoltaic solar panels, said it has scored a major breakthrough by reducing the cost of manufacturing its modules to less than $1 per watt.

But utility industry officials say the cost will have to go still lower before photovoltaic technology is cost-competitive with conventionally generated electricity. Solar energy will need government support and subsidies for another five to 10 years, they say.

First Solar uses thin-film technology to convert sunlight into electric current without the need for silicon, a more expensive material used in most photovoltaic cells. Also the company said it is benefitting from mass production techniques as demand soars for its modules.

In a statement, the company said it reduced its manufacturing cost for solar modules in the fourth quarter to 98 cents per watt, the first time sub-$1 production has been achieved.

The company has reduced its production costs by two-thirds in four years - from more than $3 a watt in 2004, the company said.

"This achievement marks a milestone in the solar industry's evolution toward providing truly sustainable energy solutions," said Chief Executive Mike Ahearn.

The company plans to continue to ramp up production from the current 500 megawatts to 1 gigawatt - the equivalent of an average-sized nuclear power plant - by the end of this year, he said.

Officials of Arizona utility companies said they were impressed by First Solar's achievements.

"It's exciting stuff," said Steven Gotfried, a spokesman for Arizona Public Service.

But he added that comparing the cost of First Solar's modules in a residential rooftop system with electricity supplied from a conventional fossil-fuel power plant is not straightforward. That's because the solar panels constitute only about one-third of the cost of a residential rooftop system, he said. There are other costs such as converters and wiring that have to be factored into the equation, he said.

And, of course, you have to consider that photovoltaic panels can't produce much electricity at night or on cloudy days.

On the other hand, the fuel - sunlight - is free, while conventional power plants require coal, natural gas or nuclear fuel, whose ongoing cost has to be considered.

"It's hard to compare," he said.

Market factors are also playing a major role determining the cost of solar energy, said Chico Hunter, senior engineer for Salt River Project.

Although the cost of making solar panels is declining, the demand is so great that they are selling for pretty much what the market will bear, he said.

"You may produce it for less, but that doesn't mean you sell it for less," he said.

But Hunter applauded First Solar for being so public about its production costs, saying it will put pressure on the retail and installing segments of the industry to reduce end costs to the consumer rather than jack up profits with big markups.

First Solar has been selling most of its modules in Europe, where government subsidies are generous. But the company has started doing business in California, and SRP is negotiating with the company to expand the availability of the technology in Arizona, said Lori Singleton, SRP's manager of sustainability initiatives.

In Arizona, homeowners are eligible for tax credits and utility-company rebates to reduce the cost of installing solar systems. But Singleton said solar technology may catch on faster in places like California, where the price of conventional electricity is higher than here.

First Solar's Ahearn said government subsidies and support from countries like Germany are making it possible to reduce production costs.

"Without forward-looking government programs supporting solar electricity, we would not have been able to invest in the capacity expansion which gives us the scale to bring costs down," he said.

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Military Is Ramping Up Preparation For Major U.S. Power Grid Hack

DARPA RADICS Power Grid Security targets DoD resilience to cyber attacks, delivering early warning, detection, isolation, and characterization tools, plus a secure emergency network to protect critical infrastructure and speed grid restoration and communications.

 

Key Points

A DoD/DARPA initiative to detect, contain, and rapidly recover the U.S. grid from sophisticated cyber attacks.

✅ Early warning separates attacks from routine outages

✅ Pinpoints intrusion points and malware used

✅ Builds secure emergency network for rapid restoration

 

The U.S. Department of Defense is growing increasingly concerned about hackers taking down our power grid and crippling the nation, reflecting a renewed focus on grid protection across agencies, which is why the Pentagon has created a $77-million security plan that it hopes will be up and running by 2020.

The U.S. power grid is threatened every few days. While these physical and cyber attacks have never led to wide-scale outages, attacks are getting more sophisticated. According to a 494-page report released by the Department of Energy in January and a new grid report card, the nation’s grid “faces imminent danger from cyber attacks.” Such a major, sweeping attack could threaten “U.S. lifeline networks, critical defense infrastructure, and much of the economy; it could also endanger the health and safety of millions of citizens.” If it were to happen today, America could be powered-down and vulnerable for weeks.

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The DoD is working on an automated system to speed up recovery time to a week or less — what it calls the Rapid Attack Detection, Isolation, and Characterization (RADICS) program. DARPA, the Pentagon’s research arm, originally solicited proposals in late 2015, asking for technology that did three things. Primarily, it had to detect early warning signs and distinguish between attacks and normal outages, especially after intrusions at U.S. electric utilities underscored the risk, but it also had to pinpoint the access point of the attack and determine what malicious software was used. Finally, it must include an emergency system that can rapidly connect various power-supply centers, without any human coordination. This would allow emergency and military responders to have an ad hoc communication system in place moments after an attack.

“If a well-coordinated cyberattack on the nation’s power grid were to occur today, the time it would take to restore power would pose daunting national security challenges,” said DARPA program manager John Everett, in a statement, at the time. “Beyond the severe domestic impacts, including economic and human costs, prolonged disruption of the grid would hamper military mobilization and logistics, impairing the government’s ability to project force or pursue solutions to international crises.”

DARPA plans to spend $77 million on RADICS, while DOE funding to improve the grid complements these initiatives. Last November, SRI International announced it had received $7.3 million from the program. In December, Raython was granted $9 million. The latest addition is BAE Systems, which received $8.6 million last month to develop technology that detects and contains power-grid threats, and creates a secure emergency provisional system that restores some power and communication in the wake of an attack — what is being called a secure emergency network.

According to the military news site Defense Systems, BAE’s SEN would rely on radio, satellite, or wireless internet — particularly as ransomware attacks continue to rise — whatever is available that allows the grid to continue working. The SEN would serve as a wireless connection between separate power grid stations.

While the ultimate goal of the RADICS program will be the restoration of civilian power and communications, the SEN will prioritize communication networks that would be used for defense or combat, so the U.S. government can still wage war while the rest of us are in the dark.

 

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Ex-SpaceX engineers in race to build first commercial electric speedboat

Arc One Electric Speedboat delivers zero-emission performance, quiet operation, and reduced maintenance, leveraging battery propulsion, aerospace engineering, and venture-backed innovation to cut noise pollution, fuel costs, and water contamination in high-performance marine recreation.

 

Key Points

Arc One Electric Speedboat is a battery-powered, zero-emission craft offering quiet, high-performance marine cruising.

✅ 475 hp, 24 ft hull, about 40 mph top speed

✅ Cuts noise, fumes, and water contamination vs gas boats

✅ Backed by Andreessen Horowitz; ex-SpaceX engineers

 

A team of former SpaceX rocket engineers have joined the race to build the first commercial electric speedboat.

The Arc Boat company announced it had raised $4.25m (£3m) in seed funding to start work on a 24ft 475-horsepower craft that will cost about $300,000.

The LA-based company, which is backed by venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (an early backer of Facebook and Airbnb), said the first model of the Arc One boat would be available for sale by the end of the year.

Mitch Lee, Arc’s chief executive, said he wanted to build electric boats because of the impact conventional petrol- or diesel-powered boats have on the environment.

“They not only get just two miles to the gallon, they also pump a lot of those fumes into the water,” Lee said. “In addition, there is the huge noise pollution factor [of conventional boats] and that is awful for the marine life. With gas-powered boats it’s not just carbon emissions into the air, it’s also polluting the water and causing noise pollution. Electric boats, like electric ships clearing the air on the B.C. coast, eliminate all that.”

Lee said electric vessels would also reduce the hassle of boat ownership. “I love being out on the water, being on a boat is so much fun, but owning a boat is so awful,” he said. “I have always believed that electric boats make sense. They will be quicker, quieter and way cheaper and easier to operate and maintain, with access options like an electric boat club in Seattle lowering barriers for newcomers.”

While the first models will be very expensive, Lee said the cost was mostly in developing the technology and cheaper versions would be available in the future, mirroring advances in electric aviation seen across the industry. “It is very much the Tesla approach – we are starting up market and using that income to finance research and development and work our way down market,” he said.

Lee said the technology could be applied to larger craft, and even ferries could run on electricity in the future, as projects for battery-electric high-speed ferries begin to scale.

“We started in February with no team, no money and no warehouse,” he said. “By December we are going to be selling the Arc One, and we are hiring aggressively because we want to accelerate the adoption of electric boats across a whole range of craft, including an electric-ready ferry on Kootenay Lake.”

Lee founded the company with fellow mechanical engineer Ryan Cook. Cook, the company’s chief technology officer, was previously the lead mechanical engineer at Elon Musk’s space exploration company SpaceX where he worked on the Falcon 9 rocket, the world’s first orbital class reusable rocket. In parallel, Harbour Air's electric aircraft highlights cross-sector electrification. Apart from Lee, all of Arc’s employees have some experience working at SpaceX.

The Arc boat, which would have a top speed of 40 mph, joins a number of startups rushing to make the first large-scale production of electric-powered speedboats, while a Vancouver seaplane airline demonstrates complementary progress with a prototype electric aircraft. The Monaco Yacht Club this month held a competition for electric boat prototypes to “instigate a new vision and promote all positive approaches to bring yachting into line” with global carbon dioxide emission reduction targets. Sweden’s Candela C-7 hydrofoil boat was crowned the fastest electric vessel.

 

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Power industry may ask staff to live on site as Coronavirus outbreak worsens

Power plant staff sequestration isolates essential operators on-site at plants and control centers, safeguarding critical infrastructure and grid reliability during the COVID-19 pandemic under DHS CISA guidance, with social distancing, offset shifts, and stockpiled supplies.

 

Key Points

A protocol isolating essential grid workers on-site to maintain operations at plants and control centers.

✅ Ensures grid reliability and continuity of critical infrastructure

✅ Implements social distancing, offset shifts, and isolation protocols

✅ Stockpiles food, beds, PPE, and sanitation for essential crews

 

The U.S. electric industry may ask essential staff to live on site at power plants and control centers to keep operations running if the coronavirus outbreak worsens, after a U.S. grid warning from the overseer, and has been stockpiling beds, blankets, and food for them, according to industry trade groups and electric cooperatives.

The contingency plans, if enacted, would mark an unprecedented step by power providers to keep their highly-skilled workers healthy as both private industry and governments scramble to minimize the impact of the global pandemic that has infected more than 227,000 people worldwide, with some utilities such as BC Hydro at Site C reporting COVID-19 updates as the situation evolves.

“The focus needs to be on things that keep the lights on and the gas flowing,” said Scott Aaronson, vice president of security and preparedness at the Edison Electric Institute (EEI), the nation’s biggest power industry association. He said that some “companies are already either sequestering a healthy group of their essential employees or are considering doing that and are identifying appropriate protocols to do that.”

Maria Korsnick, president of the Nuclear Energy Institute, said that some of the nation’s nearly 60 nuclear power plants are also “considering measures to isolate a core group to run the plant, stockpiling ready-to-eat meals and disposable tableware, laundry supplies and personal care items.”

Neither group identified specific companies, though nuclear worker concerns have been raised in some cases.

Electric power plants, oil and gas infrastructure and nuclear reactors are considered “critical infrastructure” by the federal government, and utilities continue to emphasize safety near downed lines even during emergencies. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is charged with coordinating plans to keep them operational during an emergency.

A DHS spokesperson said that its Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency had issued guidance to local governments and businesses on Thursday asking them to implement policies to protect their critical staff from the virus, even as an EPA telework policy emerged during the pandemic.

“When continuous remote work is not possible, businesses should enlist strategies to reduce the likelihood of spreading the disease,” the guidance stated. “This includes, but is not necessarily limited to, separating staff by off-setting shift hours or days and/or social distancing.”

Public health officials have urged the public to practice social distancing as a preventative measure to slow the spread of the virus, and as more people work from home, rising residential electricity use is being observed alongside daily routines. If workers who are deemed essential still leave, go to work and return to their homes, it puts the people they live with at risk of exposure. 

California has imposed a statewide shutdown, asking all citizens who do not work in those critical infrastructure industries not to leave their homes, a shift that may raise household electricity bills for consumers. Similar actions have been put in place in cities across America.

 

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Germany extends nuclear power amid energy crisis

Germany Nuclear Power Extension keeps Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2, and Emsland running as Olaf Scholz tackles the energy crisis, soaring gas prices, and EU winter demand, prioritizing grid stability amid the Ukraine war.

 

Key Points

A temporary policy keeping three German reactors online to enhance grid stability and national energy security.

✅ Extends Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2, and Emsland operations

✅ Addresses EU energy crisis and soaring gas prices

✅ Prioritizes grid stability while coal phase-out advances

 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has ordered the country's three remaining nuclear power stations to keep operating until mid-April, signalling a nuclear U-turn as the energy crisis sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine hurts the economy.

Originally Germany planned to phase out all three by the end of this year, continuing its nuclear phaseout policy at the time.

Mr Scholz's order overruled the Greens in his coalition, who wanted two plants kept on standby, to be used if needed.

Nuclear power provides 6% of Germany's electricity.

The decision to phase it out was taken by former chancellor Angela Merkel after Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.

But gas prices have soared since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, which disrupted Russia's huge oil and gas exports to the EU, though some officials argue that nuclear would do little to solve the gas issue in the short term. In August Russia turned off the gas flowing to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 undersea pipeline.

After relying so heavily on Russian gas Germany is now scrambling to maintain sufficient reserves for the winter. The crisis has also prompted it to restart mothballed coal-fired power stations, with coal generating about a third of its electricity currently, though the plan is to phase out coal in the drive for green energy.

Last year Germany got 55% of its gas from Russia, but in the summer that dropped to 35% and it is declining further.

EU leaders consider how to cap gas prices
France sends Germany gas for first time amid crisis
Chancellor Scholz's third coalition partner, the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), welcomed his move to keep nuclear power as part of the mix. The three remaining nuclear plants are Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2 and Emsland, which were ultimately shut down after the extension.

The Social Democrat (SPD) chancellor also called for ministries to present an "ambitious" law to boost energy efficiency and to put into law a phase-out of coal by 2030, aiming for a coal- and nuclear-free economy among major industrial nations.

Last week climate activist Greta Thunberg said it was a "mistake" for Germany to press on with nuclear decommissioning while resorting to coal again, intensifying debate over a nuclear option for climate goals nationwide.

 

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There's a Russia-Sized Mystery in China's Electricity Sector

China Power Demand-Emissions Gap highlights surging grid demand outpacing renewables, with coal filling shortages despite record solar, wind, EV charging, and hydrogen growth, threatening decarbonization targets and net-zero pathways through 2030.

 

Key Points

China's power demand outpaces renewables, keeping coal dominant and raising emissions risk through the 2020s.

✅ Record solar and wind still lag fast grid demand growth

✅ Coal fills gaps as EV charging and hydrogen loads rise

✅ Forecasts diverge: CEC bullish vs IEA, BNEF conservative

 

Here’s a new obstacle that could prevent the world finally turning the corner on climate change: Imagine that over the coming decade a whole new economy the size of Russia were to pop up out of nowhere. With the world’s fourth-largest electricity sector and largest burden of power plant emissions after China, the U.S. and India, this new economy on its own would be enough to throw out efforts to halt global warming — especially if it keeps on growing through the 2030s.

That’s the risk inherent in China’s seemingly insatiable appetite for grid power, as surging electricity demand is putting systems under strain worldwide.

From the cracking pace of renewable build-out last year, you might think the country had broken the back of its carbon addiction. A record 55 gigawatts of solar power and 48 gigawatts of wind were connected — comparable to installing the generation capacity of Mexico in less than 12 months. This year will see an even faster pace, with 93 GW of solar and 50 GW of wind added, according to a report last week from the China Electricity Council, an industry association.

That progress could in theory see the country’s power sector emissions peak within months, rather than the late-2020s date the government has hinted at. Combined with a smaller quantity of hydro and nuclear, low-emissions sources will probably add about 310 terawatt-hours to zero-carbon generation this year. That 3.8% increase would be sufficient to power the U.K.

Countries that have reached China’s levels of per-capita electricity consumption (already on a par with most of Europe) typically see growth rates at less than half that level, even as global power demand has surged past pre-pandemic levels in recent years. Grid supply could grow at a faster pace than Brazil, Iran, South Korea or Thailand managed over the past decade without adding a ton of additional carbon to the atmosphere.

There’s a problem with that picture, however. If electricity demand grows at an even more headlong pace, there simply won’t be enough renewables to supply the grid. Fossil fuels, overwhelmingly coal, will fill the gap, a reminder of the iron law of climate dynamics in energy transitions.

Such an outcome looks distinctly possible. Electricity consumption in 2021 grew at an extraordinary rate of 10%, and will increase again by between 5% and 6% this year, according to the CEC. That suggests the country is on pace to match the CEC’s forecasts of bullish grid demand over the coming decade, with generation hitting 11,300 terawatt-hours in 2030. External analysts, such as the International Energy Agency and BloombergNEF, envisage a more modest growth to around 10,000 TWh. 

The difference between those two outlooks is vast — equivalent to all the electricity produced by Russia or Japan. If the CEC is right and the IEA and BloombergNEF are wrong, even the furious rate of renewable installations we’re seeing now won’t be enough to rein in China’s power-sector emissions.

Who’s correct? On one hand, it’s fair to say that power planners usually err on the side of overestimation. If your forecast for electricity demand is too high, state-owned generators will be less profitable than they otherwise would have been — but if it’s too low, you’ll see power cuts and shutdowns like China witnessed last autumn, with resulting power woes affecting supply chains beyond its borders.

On the other hand, the decarbonization of China’s economy itself should drive electricity demand well above what we’ve seen in the past, with some projections such as electricity meeting 60% of energy use by 2060 pointing to a profound shift. Some 3.3 million electric vehicles were sold in 2021 and BloombergNEF estimates a further 5.7 million will be bought in 2022. Every million EVs will likely add in the region of 2 TWh of load to the grid. Those sums quickly mounts up in a country where electric drivetrains are taking over a market that shifts more than 25 million new cars a year.

Decarbonizing industry, a key element on China’s road to zero emissions, could also change the picture. The IEA sees the country building 25 GW of electolysers to produce hydrogen by 2030, enough to consume some 200 TWh on their own if run close to full-time.

That’s still not enough to justify the scale of demand being forecast, though. China is already one of the least efficient countries in the world when it comes to translating energy into economic growth, and despite official pressure on the most wasteful, so called “dual-high” industries such as steel, oil refining, glass and cement, its targets for more thrifty energy usage remain pedestrian.

The countries that have decarbonized fastest are those, such as Germany, the U.K and the U.S., where Americans are using less electricity, that have seen power demand plateau or even decline, giving new renewable power a chance to swap out fossil-fired generators without chasing an ever-increasing burden on the grid. China’s inability to do this as its population peaks and energy consumption hits developed-country levels isn’t a sign of strength.

Instead, it’s a sign of a country that’s chronically unable to make the transition away from polluting heavy industry and toward the common prosperity and ecological civilization that its president keeps promising. Until China reins in that credit-fueled development model, the risks to its economy and the global climate will only increase.

 

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National Grid warns of short supply of electricity over next few days

National Grid power supply warning highlights electricity shortage risks amid low wind output, generator outages, and cold weather, reducing capacity margins and grid stability; considering demand response and reserve power to avoid blackout risk.

 

Key Points

An alert that reduced capacity from low wind and outages requires actions to maintain UK grid stability.

✅ Low wind output and generator outages reduce capacity margins

✅ ESO exploring demand response and reserve generation options

✅ Aim: maintain grid stability and avoid blackout risk

 

National Grid has warned that Britain’s electricity will be in short supply over the next few days after a string of unplanned power plant outages and unusually low wind speeds this week, as cheap wind power wanes across the system.

The electricity system operator said it will take action to “make sure there is enough generation” during the cold weather spell, including virtual power plants and other demand-side measures, to prevent a second major blackout in as many years.

“Unusually low wind output coinciding with a number of generator outages means the cushion of spare capacity we operate the system with has been reduced,” the company told its Twitter followers.

“We’re exploring measures and actions to make sure there is enough generation available to increase our buffer of capacity.”

A spokeswoman for National Grid said the latest electricity supply squeeze was not expected to be as severe as recorded last month, following reports that the government’s emergency energy plan was not going ahead, and added that the company did not expect to issue an official warning in the next 24 hours.

“We’re monitoring how the situation develops,” she said.

The warning is the second from the electricity system operator in recent weeks. In mid-September the company issued an official warning to the electricity market as peak power prices climbed, that its ‘buffer’ of power reserves had fallen below 500MW and it may need to call on more power plants to help prevent a blackout. The notice was later withdrawn.

Concerns over National Grid’s electricity supplies have been relatively rare in recent years. It was forced in November 2015 to ask businesses to cut their demand as a “last resort” measure to keep the lights on after a string of coal plant breakdowns.

But since then, National Grid’s greater challenge has been an oversupply of electricity, partly due to record wind generation, which has threatened to overwhelm the grid during times of low electricity demand.

National Grid has already spent almost £1bn on extra measures to prevent blackouts over the first half of the year by paying generators to produce less electricity during the coronavirus lockdown, as daily demand fell.

The company paid wind farms to turn off, and EDF Energy to halve the nuclear generation from its Sizewell B nuclear plant, to avoid overwhelming the grid when demand for electricity fell by almost a quarter from last year.

The electricity supply squeeze comes a little over a year after National Grid left large parts of England and Wales without electricity after the biggest blackout in a decade left a million homes in the dark. National Grid blamed a lightning strike for the widespread power failure.

Similar supply strains have recently caused power cuts in China, underscoring how weather and generation mix can trigger blackouts.

 

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