Clean-coal technology was pricey, unproven

By The Buffalo News


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At first glance, the advanced coal power plant proposed for the Huntley Station in the Town of Tonawanda seemed like a good solution to some of America's energy problems.

Use America's abundant - and relatively affordable - supply of coal to generate electricity in a groundbreaking new way that would keep the carbon dioxide that causes global warming from spewing into the atmosphere.

But the reality was far different for the Huntley Station project - and at least 11 other similar plants that had been on drawing boards across the country.

High costs, combined with still-developing technology, raised serious questions about whether the Huntley project and other proposed advanced coal power plants would be able to deliver on their high-sounding environmental promises.

And even if they did, it was becoming increasingly apparent that the cost of doing it would be prohibitively high.

"The Huntley project was, in many ways, ahead of its time," said David Crane, the chief executive of NRG Energy, as the company and state officials pulled the plug on its proposal for a 680-megawatt power plant.

It wasn't just the $2.3 billion Huntley project, either. Virginia utility regulators in April scrapped a proposed plant that would have been similar in size to Huntley because it would be too expensive. The U. S. Department of Energy in January pulled out of the so-called $1.8 billion Future Gen project in Illinois that would have developed advanced methods to convert coal to gas and capture the plant's harmful emissions because the project's costs had nearly doubled.

Since the start of last year, utilities have pulled the plug or put on hold other advanced coal projects in states ranging from Connecticut and Florida to Wyoming and Oklahoma. Duke Energy, which is currently building an advanced coal project in Indiana, said in May that the plant's price tag had swelled by almost 20 percent to $2.35 billion.

Because the Huntley project was designed to be a cutting-edge advanced coal plant built on a scale never done before, it was always a risky project, both for NRG and state officials, who were being asked to provide extensive subsidies and power purchase commitments.

In the end, those risks proved to be too daunting.

"The financial and environmental risk associated with this large-scale commercial power plant is simply too great," the New York Power Authority concluded in a report issued last week.

The Huntley project, even with significant government subsidies, would have produced electricity that cost far more than the current market price. To bring those costs in line would have required additional government aid and subsidies totaling $1.5 billion to $3 billion in today's dollars over a 20-year period - a hurdle that ultimately proved to be a key part of the project's undoing.

The Huntley project and other advanced coal power plant proposals have gathered a lot of attention over the last few years as officials search for ways to expand electricity production without adding to the threat of global warming. The Bush administration has backed efforts to develop advanced coal technology. Presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama also have endorsed advanced coal efforts.

The Huntley project also had widespread political support, lured by the promise of 100 permanent jobs and 1,000 construction jobs. But in the end, it wasn't enough.

Coal, which is both abundant in the United States and relatively cheap, is a natural choice as a potential fuel. But coal, which already is used to produce half of the U. S. electricity supply, also has huge environmental problems, because burning it produces high levels of harmful emissions, ranging from nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide to carbon dioxide.

That led to a focus on ways to reduce those harmful emissions by using new equipment and processes. The Huntley plant, for instance, would have used a relatively new process that turns the coal into natural gas before burning it, vastly reducing sulfur dioxide and mercury emissions.

Another major part of those efforts would involve capturing the carbon dioxide, turning it into a liquid and then injecting it more than a mile beneath the earth's surface. If all went as planned, the carbon dioxide would remain safely underground forever.

But that process likely would be expensive, and scientists aren't sure that the carbon dioxide wouldn't seep out eventually, potentially defeating the purpose of easing the global warming problem.

There also are complex legal and regulatory issues that still need to be resolved, such as who would be liable if the carbon dioxide sequestration efforts led to ground water being contaminated.

In addition, no plant has ever fully integrated the three pillars of the Huntley emissions control program - the Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle process that would burn the gasified coal, capture the carbon dioxide and then store it, NYPA officials said.

"The worst case scenario being that the plant is built, carbon capture and sequestration doesn't work, or the economics for using it fail and it is discontinued, and the plant operates anyway -- emitting large volumes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere," said Walter Simpson, a spokesman for the Western New York Climate Action Coalition.

Power authority officials had the same concerns. "It is not without doubt that the combined technologies may face significant challenges to deliver the promised environmental benefits at the anticipated costs," the Power Authority report concluded.

"This could likely result in the use of significant public financial resources for a facility that does not achieve its stated purposes and fails to meet the overall environmental goal," the report said.

The Paterson administration agreed that the risks were too great - a view that it signaled last month when it threw its support - and $7 million in aid - behind a 50-megawatt advanced coal power plant being proposed in Jamestown.

Paterson administration officials are drawn to the Jamestown project because it is less than one-tenth of the size of the proposed Huntley plant, reducing the financial commitment required, while also shrinking the amount of pollutants that the facility would generate for its carbon capture and sequestration demonstration project.

"It has a much smaller price tag and it has much less risk if it doesn't work," said a Paterson administration official, who spoke on the condition he not be identified.

If it does work, other advanced coal projects could build on the Jamestown experience, on an even larger scale. "The beautiful thing about Jamestown is that it's fully scalable," the official said.

Paterson is enthusiastic about the Jamestown project because of its potential environmental benefits, as well as the economic development benefits it could produce, particularly in job-starved upstate, said Paul DeCotis, Paterson's deputy energy secretary.

"This has implications well beyond New York," DeCotis said. "If its proven, with New York industry and New York intellectual know-how, we could be exporting this technology. The potential upside is enormous. The potential downside is virtually zero."

Simpson isn't so sure. "Given U. S. heavy reliance on coal for electricity generation, there is a need to test and develop carbon capture and sequestration technologies. But it is not clear what applications and test sites are best for conducting carbon capture and sequestration tests," he said.

Funding also is a big hurdle for the $285 million Jamestown project, where its backers are seeking $100 million in federal aid.

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Why Is Central Asia Suffering From Severe Electricity Shortages?

Central Asia power shortages strain grids across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, driven by drought-hit hydropower, aging coal and gas plants, rising demand, cryptomining loads, and winter peak consumption risks.

 

Key Points

Regionwide blackouts from drought, aging plants and grids, rising demand, and winter peaks stressing Central Asia.

✅ Drought slashes hydropower in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan

✅ Aging coal and gas TPPs and weak grids cause frequent outages

✅ Cryptomining loads and winter heating spike demand and stress supply

 

Central Asians from western Kazakhstan to southern Tajikistan are suffering from power and energy shortages that have caused hardship and emergency situations affecting the lives of millions of people.

On October 14, several units at three power plants in northeastern Kazakhstan were shut down in an emergency that resulted in a loss of more than 1,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity.

It serves as an example of the kind of power failures that plague the region 30 years after the Central Asian countries gained independence and despite hundreds of millions of dollars being invested in energy infrastructure and power grids, and echo risks seen in other advanced markets such as Japan's near-blackouts during recent cold snaps.

Some of the reasons for these problems are clear, but with all the money these countries have allocated to their energy sectors and financial help they have received from international financial institutions, it is curious the situation is already so desperate with winter officially still weeks away.


The Current Problems
Three power plants were affected in the October 14 shutdowns of units: Ekibastuz-1, Ekibastuz-2, and the Aksu power plant.

Ekibastuz-1 is the largest power plant in Kazakhstan, capable of generating some 4,000 MW, roughly 13 percent of Kazakhstan’s total power output.

The Kazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating Company (KEGOC) explained the problems resulted partially from malfunctions and repair work, but also from overuse of the system that the government would later say was due to cryptominers, a large number of whom have moved to Kazakhstan recently from China after Beijing banned the mining needed by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, amid its own China's power cuts across several provinces in 2021.

But between November 8 and 9, rolling blackouts were reported in the East Kazakhstan, North Kazakhstan, and Kyzylorda provinces, as well as the area around Almaty, Kazakhstan’s biggest city, and Shymkent, its third largest city.

People in Uzbekistan say they, too, are facing blackouts that the Energy Ministry described as “short-term outages,” even as authorities have looked to export electricity to Afghanistan to support regional demand, though it has been clear for several weeks that the country will have problems with natural gas supplies this winter.


Power lines in Uzbekistan
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov continues to say there won't be any power rationing in Kyrgyzstan this winter, but at the end of September the National Energy Holding Company ordered “restrictions on the lighting of secondary streets, advertisements, and facades of shops, cafes, and other nonresidential customers.”

Many parts of Tajikistan are already experiencing intermittent supplies of electricity.

Even in Turkmenistan, a country with the fourth-largest reserves of natural gas in the world, there were reports of problems with electricity and heating in the capital, Ashgabat.


What Is Going On?
The causes of some of these problems are easy to see.

The population of the region has grown significantly, with the population of Central Asia when the Soviet Union collapsed in late 1991 being some 50 million and today about 75 million.

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are mountainous countries that have long been touted for their hydropower potential and some 90 percent of Kyrgyzstan’s domestically produced electricity and 98 percent of Tajikistan’s come from hydropower.

But a severe drought that struck Central Asia this year has resulted in less hydropower and, in general, less energy for the region, similar to constraints seen in Europe's reduced hydro and nuclear output this year.

Tajik authorities have not reported how low the water in the country’s key reservoirs is, but Kyrgyzstan has reported the water level in the reservoir at its Toktogul hydropower plant (HPP) is 11.8 billion cubic meters (bcm), the lowest level in years and far less than the 14.7 bcm of water it had in November 2020.

The Toktogul HPP, with an installed capacity of 1,200 MW, provides some 40 percent of the country's domestically produced electricity, but operating the HPP this winter to generate desperately needed energy brings the risk of leaving water levels at the reservoir critically low next spring and summer when the water is also needed for agricultural purposes.

This year’s drought is something Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will have to take into consideration as they plan how to provide power for their growing populations in the future. Hydropower is a desirable option but may be less reliable with the onset of climate change, prompting interest in alternatives such as Ukraine's wind power to diversify generation.

Uzbekistan is also feeling the effects of this year’s drought, and, like the South Caucasus where Georgia's electricity imports have increased, supply shortfalls are testing grids.

According to the International Energy Agency, HPPs account for some 12 percent of Uzbekistan’s generating capacity.

Uzbekistan’s Energy Ministry attributed low water levels at HPPs that have caused a 23 percent decrease in hydropower generation this year.


A reservoir in Kyrgyzstan
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are the most populous Central Asian countries, and both depend on thermal power plants (TPP) for generating most of their electricity.

Most of the TPPs in Kazakhstan are coal-fired, while most of the TPPs in Uzbekistan are gas-fired.

Kazakhstan has 68 power plants, 80 percent of which are coal-fired TPPs, and most are in the northern part of the country where the largest deposits of coal are located. Kazakhstan has the world's 10th largest reserves of coal.

About 88 percent of Uzbekistan’s electricity comes from TTPs, most of which use natural gas.

Uzbekistan’s proven reserves are some 800 billion cubic meters, but gas production in Uzbekistan has been decreasing.

In December 2020, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev ordered a halt to the country’s gas exports and instructed that gas to be redirected for domestic use. Mirziyoev has already given similar instructions for this coming winter.


How Did It Come To This?
The biggest problem with the energy infrastructure in Central Asia is that it is generally very old. Nearly all of its power plants date back to the Soviet era -- and some well back into the Soviet period.

The use of power plants and transmission lines that some describe as “obsolete” and a few call “decrepit” has unfortunately been a necessity in Central Asia, even as regional players pursue new interconnections like Iran's plan to transmit electricity to Europe as a power hub.

Reporting on Kazakhstan in September 2016, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said, “70 percent of the power generation infrastructure is in need of rehabilitation.”

The Ekibastuz-1 TPP is relatively new by the power-plant standards of Central Asia. The first unit of the eight units of the TPP was commissioned in 1980.

The first unit at the AKSU TPP was commissioned in 1968, and the first unit of the gas- and fuel-fired TPP in southern Kazakhstan’s Zhambyl Province was commissioned in 1967.

 

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Ireland and France will connect their electricity grids - here's how

Celtic Interconnector, a subsea electricity link between Ireland and France, connects EU grids via a high-voltage submarine cable, boosting security of supply, renewable integration, and cross-border trade with 700 MW capacity by 2026.

 

Key Points

A 700 MW subsea link between Ireland and France, boosting security, enabling trade, and supporting renewables.

✅ Approx. 600 km subsea cable from East Cork to Brittany

✅ 700 MW capacity; powers about 450,000 homes

✅ Financed by EIB, banks, CEF; Siemens Energy and Nexans

 

France and Ireland signed contracts on Friday to advance the Celtic Interconnector, a subsea electricity link to allow the exchange of electricity between the two EU countries. It will be the first interconnector between continental Europe and Ireland, as similar UK interconnector plans move forward in parallel. 

Representatives for Ireland’s electricity grid operator EirGrid and France’s grid operator RTE signed financial and technical agreements for the high-voltage submarine cable, mirroring developments like Maine’s approved transmission line in North America for cross-border power. The countries’ respective energy ministers witnessed the signing.

European commissioner for energy Kadri Simson said:

In the current energy market situation, marked by electricity price volatility, and the need to move away from imports of Russian fossil fuels, European energy infrastructure has become more important than ever.

The Celtic Interconnector is of paramount importance as it will end Ireland’s isolation from the Union’s power system, with parallels to Cyprus joining the electricity highway in the region, and ensure a reliable high-capacity link improving the security of electricity supply and supporting the development of renewables in both Ireland and France.

EirGrid and RTE signed €800 million ($827 million) worth of financing agreements with Barclays, BNP Paribas, Danske Bank, and the European Investment Bank, similar to the Lake Erie Connector investment that blends public and private capital.

In 2019, the project was awarded a Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) grant worth €530.7 million to support construction works and align with a broader push for electrification in Europe under climate strategies. The CEF program also provided €8.3 million for the Celtic Interconnector’s feasibility study and initial design and pre-consultation.

Siemens Energy will build converter stations in both countries, and Paris-based global cable company Nexans will design and install a 575-km-long cable for the project.

The cable will run between East Cork, on Ireland’s southern coast, and northwestern France’s Brittany coast and will connect into substations at Knockraha in Ireland and La Martyre in France.

The Celtic Interconnector, which is expected to be operational by 2026, will be approximately 600 km (373 miles) long and have a capacity of 700 MW, similar to cross-border initiatives such as Quebec-to-New York power exports expected in 2025, which is enough to power 450,000 households.

 

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Wasteful air conditioning adds $200 to summer energy bills, reveals BC Hydro

BC Hydro Air Conditioning Efficiency Tips help cut energy bills as HVAC use rises. Avoid inefficient portable AC units, set thermostats near 25 C, use fans and window shading, and turn systems off when unoccupied.

 

Key Points

BC Hydro's guidelines to lower summer power bills by optimizing A/C settings, fans, shading, and usage habits at home.

✅ Set thermostats to 25 C; switch off A/C when away

✅ Prefer fans and window shading; close doors/windows in heat

✅ Avoid multiple portable A/C units; choose efficient HVAC

 

BC Hydro is scolding British Columbians for their ineffective, wasteful and costly use of home air conditioners.

In what the electric utility calls “not-so-savvy” behaviour, it says many people are over-spending on air conditioning units that are poorly installed or used incorrectly.

"The majority of British Columbians will spend more time at home this summer because of the COVID-19 pandemic," BC Hydro says in a news release about an August survey of customers.

"With A/C use on the rise, there is evidence British Columbians are not cooling down efficiently, leading to higher summer electricity bills, as extreme heat boosts U.S. bills too this summer."

BC Hydro estimates some customers are shelling out $200 more on their summer energy bills than they need to during a record-breaking 2021 demand year for electricity.

The pandemic is compounding the demand for cool, comfortable air at home. Roughly two in five British Columbians between the ages of 25 and 50 are working from home five days a week.

However, it’s not just COVID-19 that is putting a strain on energy consumption and monthly bills, with drought affecting generation as well today.

About 90 per cent of people who use an air conditioner set it to a temperature below the recommended 25 Celsius, according to BC Hydro.

In fact, one in three people have set their A/C to the determinedly unseasonable temperature of 19 C.

Another 30 per cent are using more than one portable air conditioning unit, which the utility says is considered the most inefficient model on the market, and questions remain about crypto mining electricity use in B.C. today.

The use of air conditioners is steadily increasing in B.C. and has more than tripled since 2001, according to BC Hydro, with all-time high demand also reported in B.C. during recent heat waves. The demand for climate control is particularly high among condo-dwellers since apartments tend to trap heat and stay warmer.

This may explain why one in 10 residents of the Lower Mainland has three portable air conditioning units, and elsewhere Calgary's frigid February surge according to Enmax.

In addition, 30 per cent of people keep the air conditioning on for the sake of their pets while no one is home.

BC Hydro makes these recommendations to save energy and money on monthly bills while still keeping homes cooled during summer’s hottest days, and it also offers a winter payment plan to help manage costs:

Cool homes to 25 C in summer months when home; air conditioning should be turned off when homes are unoccupied.
In place of air conditioning, running a fan for nine hours a day over the summer costs $7.
Shading windows with drapes and blinds can help insulate a home by keeping out 65 per cent of the heat.
If the temperature outside a home is warmer than inside, keep doors and windows closed to keep cooler air inside.
Use a microwave, crockpot or toaster oven to avoid the extra heat produced by larger appliances, such as an oven, when cooking. Hang clothes to dry instead of using a dryer on hot days.

 

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Enel Starts Operations of 450 MW Wind Farm in U.S

High Lonesome Wind Farm powers Texas with 500 MW of renewable energy, backed by a 12-year PPA with Danone North America and a Proxy Revenue Swap, cutting CO2 emissions as Enel's largest project to date.

 

Key Points

A 500 MW Enel wind project in Texas, supplying renewable power via PPAs and hedged by a Proxy Revenue Swap.

✅ 450 MW online; expanding to 500 MW in early 2020

✅ 12-year PPA with Danone North America for 20.6 MW

✅ PRS hedge with Allianz and Nephila stabilizes revenues

 

Enel, through its US renewable subsidiary Enel Green Power North America, Inc. (“EGPNA”), has started operations of its 450 MW High Lonesome wind farm in Upton and Crockett Counties, in Texas, the largest operational wind project in the Group’s global renewable portfolio, alongside a recent 90 MW Spanish wind build in its European pipeline. Enel also signed a 12-year, renewable energy power purchase agreement (PPA) with food and beverage company Danone North America, a Public Benefit Corporation, for physical delivery of the renewable electricity associated with 20.6 MW, leading to an additional 50 MW expansion of High Lonesome that will increase the plant’s total capacity to 500 MW. The construction of the 50 MW expansion is currently underway and operations are due to start in the first quarter of 2020.

“The start of operations of Enel’s largest wind farm in the world marks a significant achievement for our company and reinforces our global commitment to accelerated renewable energy growth,” said Antonio Cammisecra, CEO of Enel Green Power, referencing the largest wind project constructed in North America as evidence of market momentum. “This milestone is matched with a new partnership with Danone North America to support their renewable goals, a reinforcement of our continued commitment to provide customers with tailored solutions to meet their sustainability goals.”

The agreement between Enel and Danone North America will provide enough electricity to produce the equivalent of almost 800 million cups of yogurt1 and over 80 million gallons2 of milk each year and support the food and beverage company’s commitment to securing 100% of its purchased electricity from renewable sources by 2030, in a market where North Carolina’s first wind farm is now fully operational and expanding access to clean power.

Mariano Lozano, president and CEO of Danone North America, added:“This is an exciting and significant step as we continue to advance our 2030 renewable electricity goals. As a public benefit corporation committed to balancing the needs of our business with those of society and the planet, we truly believe that this agreement makes sense from both a business and sustainability point of view. We’re delighted to be working with Enel Green Power to expand their High Lonesome wind farm and grow the renewable electricity infrastructure, such as New York’s biggest offshore wind projects, here in the US.”

In addition, as more US wind projects come online, such as TransAlta’s 119 MW project, the energy produced by a 295 MW portion of the project will be hedged under a Proxy Revenue Swap (PRS) with insurer Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty, Inc.'s Alternative Risk Transfer unit (Allianz), and Nephila Climate, a provider of weather and climate risk management products. The PRS is a financial derivative agreement designed to produce stable revenues for the project regardless of power price fluctuations and weather-driven intermittency, hedging the project from this kind of risk in addition to that associated with price and volume.

Under the PRS agreement, and as other projects begin operations, like Building Energy’s latest plant, High Lonesome will receive fixed payments based on the expected value of future energy production, with adjustments paid depending on how the realized proxy revenue of the project differs from the fixed payment. The PRS for High Lonesome, which is the largest by capacity for a single plant globally and the first agreement of its kind for Enel, was executed in collaboration with REsurety, Inc.

The investment in the construction of the 500 MW plant amounts to around 720 million US dollars. The wind farm is due to generate around 1.9 TWh annually, comparable to a 280 MW Alberta wind farm’s output, while avoiding the emission of more than 1.2 million tons of CO2 per year.

 

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Huge offshore wind turbine that can power 18,000 homes

Siemens Gamesa SG 14-222 DD advances offshore wind with a 14 MW direct-drive turbine, 108 m blades, a 222 m rotor, optional 15 MW boost, powering about 18,000 homes; prototype 2021, commercial launch 2024.

 

Key Points

A 14 MW offshore wind turbine with 108 m blades and a 222 m rotor, upgradable to 15 MW, targeting commercial use in 2024.

✅ 14 MW direct-drive, upgradable to 15 MW

✅ 108 m blades, 222 m rotor diameter

✅ Powers about 18,000 European homes annually

 

Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy (SGRE) has released details of a 14-megawatt (MW) offshore wind turbine, as offshore green hydrogen production gains attention, in the latest example of how technology in the sector is increasing in scale.

With 108-meter-long blades and a rotor diameter of 222 meters, the dimensions of the SG 14-222 DD turbine are significant.

In a statement Tuesday, SGRE said that one turbine would be able to power roughly 18,000 average European households annually, while its capacity can also be boosted to 15 MW if needed. A prototype of the turbine is set to be ready by 2021, and it’s expected to be commercially available in 2024, as forecasts suggest a $1 trillion business this decade.

As technology has developed over the last few years, the size of wind turbines has increased, and renewables are set to shatter records globally.

Last December, for example, Dutch utility Eneco started to purchase power produced by the prototype of GE Renewable Energy’s Haliade-X 12 MW wind turbine. That turbine has a capacity of 12 MW, a height of 260 meters and a blade length of 107 meters.

The announcement of Siemens Gamesa’s new turbine plans comes against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, which is impacting renewable energy companies around the world, even as wind power sees growth despite Covid-19 in many markets.

Earlier this month, the European company said Covid-19 had a “direct negative impact” of 56 million euros ($61 million) on its profitability between January and March, amid factory closures in Spain and supply chain disruptions. This, it added, was equivalent to 2.5% of revenues during the quarter.

The pandemic has, in some parts of the world, altered the sources used to power society. At the end of April, for instance, it was announced that a new record had been set for coal-free electricity generation in Great Britain, where UK offshore wind growth has accelerated, with a combination of factors — including coronavirus-related lockdown measures — playing a role.

On Tuesday, the CEO of another major wind turbine manufacturer, Danish firm Vestas, sought to emphasize the importance of renewable energy in the years and months ahead, and the lessons the U.S. can learn from the U.K. on wind deployment.

“I think we have actually, throughout this crisis, also shown to all society that renewables can be trusted,” Henrik Andersen said during an interview on CNBC’s Street Signs.

“But we both know ... that that transformation of energy sources is not going to happen overnight, it’s not going to happen from a quarter to a quarter, it’s going to happen by consistently planning year in, year out.”

 

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Kenney holds the power as electricity sector faces profound change

Alberta Electricity Market Reform reshapes policy under the UCP, weighing a capacity market versus energy-only design, AESO reliability rules, renewables targets, coal phase-out, carbon pricing, consumer rates, and investment certainty before AUC decisions.

 

Key Points

Alberta Electricity Market Reform is the UCP plan to reassess capacity vs energy-only, renewables, and carbon pricing.

✅ Reviews capacity market timeline and AESO procurement

✅ Alters subsidies for renewables; slows wind and solar growth

✅ Adjusts industrial carbon levy; audits Balancing Pool losses

 

Hearings kicked off this week into the future of the province’s electricity market design, amid an electricity market reshuffle pledged by the province, but a high-stakes decision about the industry’s fate — affecting billions of dollars in investment and consumer costs — won’t be made inside the meeting room of the Alberta Utilities Commission.

Instead, it will take place in the office of Jason Kenney, as the incoming premier prepares to pivot away from the seismic reforms to Alberta’s electricity sector introduced by the Notley government.

The United Conservative Party has promised to adopt market-based policies, reflecting changes to how Alberta produces and pays for power, that will reset how the sector operates, from its approach to renewable energy and carbon pricing to re-evaluating the planned transition to an electricity “capacity market.”

“Every ball in electricity is up in the air right now,” Vittoria Bellissimo, of the Industrial Power Consumers Association of Alberta, said Tuesday during a break in the commission hearings.

Industry players are uncertain how quickly the UCP will change direction on power policies, but there’s little doubt Kenney’s government will take a strikingly different approach to the sector that keeps the lights on in Alberta.

“There’s some things they are going to change that are going to impact the electricity industry significantly,” said Duane Reid-Carlson, chief executive of consultancy EDC Associates.

“But I don’t think it’s going to be upheaval. I think the new government will proceed with caution because electricity is the foundation of our economy.”

Alberta’s electricity market has been turned on its head in recent years due to the recession, power prices dropping to near two-decade lows and several transformative policies initiated by the NDP.

The Notley government’s climate plan included an accelerated phase-out of all coal-fired generation and set targets for more renewable energy.

The most significant, but least-understood, move has been the planned shift to an electricity capacity market in 2021.

Under the strategy, generators will no longer solely be paid for the power produced and sold into the market; they will also receive payments for having electricity capacity available to the grid on demand.

The change was recommended by the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) as a way to reduce price volatility and provide more reliability than the current energy-only market, which some argue needs more competition to deliver better outcomes.

The independent system operator and industry officials have spent more than two years planning the transition since the switch was announced in late 2016. Proposed rules for the new system, outlining market changes, are now being discussed at the Alberta Utilities Commission hearings.

However, there is no ironclad guarantee the system remake will go ahead following the UCP’s election victory last week — amid calls to scrap the overhaul from a Calgary retailer — it plans to study the issue further — while other substantive electricity changes are already in store.

The UCP has promised to end “costly subsidies” to renewable energy developments and abandon the NDP’s pledge to have such energy sources make up 30 per cent of all power generation by 2030.

It will remove the planned phase-out of coal-fired electricity generation, although federal regulations for a 2030 prohibition remain in place.

It will also ask the auditor general to conduct a special audit of the massive losses sustained by the province’s Balancing Pool due to power purchase arrangements being handed back to the agency three years ago.

While Kenney has pledged to cancel the provincewide carbon tax, a levy on large industrial greenhouse gas emitters (such has power plants) will still be charged, although at a reduced rate of $20 a tonne.

The biggest unknown remains the power market’s structure, which underpins how the entire system operates.

The UCP has promised to consult on the shift to the capacity market and report back to Albertans within 90 days.

The complex issue may sound like an eye-glazer, but it will have a profound effect on industry investment, as well as how much consumers pay on their monthly electricity bills.

A number of industry players worry the capacity market will lead AESO to procure more power than is necessary, foisting unnecessary costs onto all Albertans.

“I still have concerns for what the impact on consumers is going to be,” said energy market consultant Sheldon Fulton. “I’d love to see the capacity market go away.”

An analysis by EDC Associates found the transition to a capacity market will procure additional electricity before it’s needed, requiring consumers to pay up to 40 per cent more — an extra $1.4 billion — for power in 2021-22 than under the existing market structure.

“I don’t think there’s any prejudged outcome,” said Blake Shaffer, former head trader at TransAlta Corp. and a fellow-in-residence at the C.D. Howe Institute.

“But it really matters about getting this right.”

Evan Bahry, executive director of the Independent Power Producers Society of Alberta, said the fact the UCP’s review was confined to just 90 days is helpful, as it avoids throwing the entire industry into a prolonged period of uncertainty.

As for the greening of Alberta’s power grid, amid growing attention to clean grids and storage, the demise of the NDP’s Renewable Electricity Program will likely slow down the rapid pace of wind and solar development. But it’s unlikely to stop the growth trend as costs continue to fall for such developments.

“Renewables over the last number of years have evolved to the point that they make sense on a subsidy-free basis,” said Dan Balaban, CEO of Greengate Power Corp., which has developed 480 MW of wind power in Alberta and Ontario.

“There is a path to clean electricity ahead.”

Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.

 

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Advantages To Instructor-Led Training – Instructor-Led Course, Customized Training, Multiple Locations, Economical, CEU Credits, Course Discounts.

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Whether you would prefer Live Online or In-Person instruction, our electrical training courses can be tailored to meet your company's specific requirements and delivered to your employees in one location or at various locations.