Falling silicon prices pressure thin-film solar

By Reuters


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A collapse in silicon prices threatens to put the heat on solar panel makers that use little of the material, such as Japan's Sharp Corp and even low-cost industry darling First Solar Inc.

Spot prices on the solar industry's key raw material, polysilicon, have halved since January, giving a leg up to solar panels that rely heavily on the material.

Thin-film solar panels, made with little or no polysilicon, are starting to lose their competitive edge over China-made silicon-based modules, which are more efficient in transforming the sun's rays into electricity.

"First Solar is still the undisputed leader, but finally, someone's competing with them," said Macquarie analyst Kelly Dougherty. Intensifying price competition is making scale all-important, hurting the chances of start-ups, she said. "If this trend continues, I wouldn't be surprised if just a handful of thin-film companies are left."

U.S.-based First Solar, the world's top thin-film company, has been snapping up large, utility-scale contracts in Europe and the United States thanks to its cadmium telluride panels that are cheaper to produce than the traditional silicon-based panels that dominate the market.

But the precipitous drop in silicon panel prices is eroding First Solar's lead.

Last month, the chief executive of German solar power plant builder and First Solar customer Phoenix Solar AG said the company was ready to shift toward silicon-based panels if prices drop far enough.

Crystalline silicon and thin film solar panels are now competing in the same markets for the same customers, Andreas Haenel said on a conference call, adding that Phoenix had been able to negotiate lower prices with First Solar as a result.

"Whenever we see that one is getting the advantage over another, we are flexible to shift from left to right and from right to left," Haenel said.

Polysilicon prices will continue to fall as semiconductor demand stays weak and oversupply plagues the solar sector, industry players say.

That, along with potential demand gains from a new solar subsidy in China, would further lower costs for Chinese manufacturers, who already boast processing costs of 90 cents to $1 per watt of generating capacity — narrowing the gap with ultra-low-cost First Solar and giving Sharp and Taiwanese thin-film makers such as NexPower Technology, an affiliate of United Microelectronics Corp, a run for their money.

Chinese manufacturers including Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd, Trina Solar and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd have been able to cut their prices more aggressively than their German and U.S. peers because they procure more polysilicon from the spot market and because of low electricity and labor costs.

Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd, which is undercutting even its Chinese rivals, was tapped by U.S. power company and First Solar customer AES Corp last month to be its exclusive supplier of crystalline silicon solar panels — a deal Barclays Capital analyst Vishal Shah wrote "shows further evidence that low poly prices are likely closing the gap between First Solar and Yingli panel prices."

Silicon-based panels are thought to be competitive with thin film at about 1.60 euros ($2.26) per watt of generating capacity, according to Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Mehdi Hosseini.

On average, prices are now between 1.70 euros per watt and 1.80 euros per watt, Hosseini said, adding that China's Yingli recently beat out First Solar for a contract in Germany by pricing below the market average at 1.60 euros per watt.

First Solar officials did not reply to a request for comment on Hosseini's assertion.

"These price falls are a major problem for thin-film makers, especially for those that use turnkey lines from Applied Materials Inc or Oerlikon and who just deliver standard amorphous tandem thin-film cells," said iSuppli analyst Stefan de Haan.

Applied Materials customers include India's Moser Baer, U.S.-based private company Signet Solar and China's ENN Solar Energy Co. Oerlikon customers include Germany's SCHOTT Solar and ErSol Solar Energy AG and Taiwan's CMC Magnetics Corp.

Not that anyone expects First Solar to be run out of the market. Rather, lower prices on silicon-based panels will pressure the company to stay competitive by cutting its own prices, ultimately driving down earnings estimates.

"First Solar is still one of the best companies, it's just that competition is catching up and do you really want to buy it at $200?" said Hosseini, who cut his rating on First Solar to ‘underperform’. "The kind of earnings that I am expecting justifies a $100 or $110 stock, not $200."

First Solar's stock was at $190.66 in one day of trading on Nasdaq and has gained about 30 percent so far this year. The shares trade at about 25 times 2009 earnings estimates, compared with multiples of 22, 15 and 11 for Yingli, Suntech and Trina.

One First Solar investor said that while competition was heating up, he still expected the company to compete best for contracts with U.S. utilities, who are willing to trade efficiency for the lowest price possible.

"It does make thin-film marginally less superior, but it definitely hasn't eroded its advantage," said Edward Guinness, a fund manager with Guinness Atkinson Funds, which owns more than 11,000 First Solar shares. "We've always seen thin-film as having an attractive niche. I don't think it's going to take over the whole market, and I've never thought that."

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Energy-hungry Europe to brighten profit at US solar equipment makers

European Solar Inverter Demand surges as photovoltaics and residential solar expand during the clean energy transition, driven by high natural gas prices; Germany leads, boosting Enphase and SolarEdge sales for rooftop systems and grid-tied installations.

 

Key Points

Rising European need for solar inverters, fueled by residential PV growth, high energy costs, and clean energy policies.

✅ Germany leads EU rooftop PV installations

✅ Enphase and SolarEdge see revenue growth

✅ High gas prices and policies spur adoption

 

Solar equipment makers are expected to post higher quarterly profit, benefiting from strong demand in Europe for critical components that convert energy from the sun into electricity, amid record renewable momentum worldwide.

The continent is emerging as a major market for solar firms as it looks to reduce its dependence on the Russian energy supply and accelerate its clean energy transition, with solar already reshaping power prices in Northern Europe across the region, brightening up businesses of companies such as Enphase Energy (ENPH.O) and SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG.O), which make solar inverters.

Wall Street expects Enphase and SolarEdge to post a combined adjusted net income of $323.8 million for the April-June quarter, a 56.7% jump from a year earlier, even as demand growth slows in the United States.

The energy crisis in Europe is not as acute as last year when Western sanctions on Russia severely crimped supplies, but prices of natural gas and electricity continue to be much higher than in the United States, Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov said.

As a result, demand for residential solar keeps growing at a strong pace in the region, with Germany being one of the top markets and solar adoption in Poland also accelerating in recent years across the region.

About 159,000 residential solar systems became operational in the first quarter in Germany amid a solar power boost that reflects policy and demand, a 146% rise from a year earlier, according to BSW solar power association.

Adoption of solar is also helping European homeowners have greater control over their energy costs as fossil fuel prices tend to be more volatile, Morningstar analyst Brett Castelli said.

SolarEdge, which has a bigger exposure to Europe than Enphase, said its first-quarter revenue from the continent more than doubled compared with last year.

In comparison, growth in the United States has been tepid due to lukewarm demand in states like Texas and Arizona where cheaper electricity prices make the economics of residential solar less attractive, even though solar is now cheaper than gas in parts of the U.S. market.

Higher interest rates following the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent actions to tame inflation are also weighing on demand, even as power outage risks rise across the United States.

Analysts also expect weakness in California where a new metering reform reduces the money credited to rooftop solar owners for sending excess power into the grid, underscoring how policy shifts can reshape the sector. The sunshine state accounts for nearly a third of the U.S. residential solar market.

Enphase will report its results on Thursday after the bell, while SolarEdge will release its second-quarter numbers on Aug. 1.

 

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Yukon receives funding for new wind turbines

Yukon Renewable Energy Funding backs wind turbines, grid-scale battery storage, and transmission line upgrades, cutting diesel dependence, lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and strengthening Yukon Energy's isolated grid for remote communities, local jobs, and future growth.

 

Key Points

Federal support for Yukon projects adding wind, battery storage, and grid upgrades to cut diesel use and emissions.

✅ Three 100 kW wind turbines will power Destruction Bay.

✅ 8 MW battery storage smooths peaks and reduces diesel.

✅ Mayo-McQuesten 138 kV line upgrade boosts reliability.

 

Kluane First Nation in Yukon will receive a total of $3.1 million in funding from the federal government to install and operate wind turbines that will help reduce the community’s diesel reliance.

According to a release, the community will integrate three 100-kilowatt turbines in Destruction Bay, Yukon, providing a renewable energy source for their local power grid that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and create local jobs in the community.

A $2-million investment from Natural Resources Canada came from the Clean Energy for Rural and Remote Communities Program, part of the Government of Canada’s Investing in Canada infrastructure plan, which supports green energy solutions across jurisdictions. Crown-Indigenous Relations’ and Northern Affairs Canada also contributed a $1.1-million investment from the Northern REACHE Program.

Also, the Government of Canada announced more than $39.2 million in funding for two Yukon Energy projects that will increase the reliability of Yukon’s electrical grid, including exploration of a potential connection to the B.C. grid to bolster resiliency, and help build the robust energy system needed to support future growth. The investment comes from the government’s Green Infrastructure Stream (GIS) of the Investing in Canada infrastructure plan.

 

Project 1: Grid-scale battery storage

The federal government is investing $16.5 million in Yukon Energy’s construction of a new battery storage system in Yukon. Once completed, the 8 MW battery will be the largest grid-connected battery in the North, and one of the largest in Canada, alongside major Ontario battery projects underway.

The new battery is a critical investment in Yukon Energy’s ability to meet growing demands for power and securing Yukon’s energy future. As an isolated grid, one of the largest challenges Yukon Energy faces is meeting peak demands for power during winter months, as electrification grows with EV adoption in the N.W.T. and beyond.

When complete, the new system will store excess electricity generated during off-peak periods, complementing emerging vehicle-to-grid integration approaches, and provide Yukoners with access to more power during peak periods. This new energy storage system will create a more reliable power supply and help reduce the territory’s reliance on diesel fuel. Over the 20-year life of project, the new battery is expected to reduce carbon emissions in Yukon by more than 20,000 tonnes.

A location for the new battery energy storage system has not been identified. Yukon Energy will begin permitting of the project in 2020 with construction targeted to be complete by mid-2023.

 

Project 2: Replacing and upgrading the Mayo to McQuesten Transmission Line

Yukon Energy has received $22.7 million in federal funding to proceed with Stage 1 of the Stewart to Keno City Transmission Project – replacing and upgrading the 65 year-old transmission line between Mayo and McQuesten. The project also includes the addition of system protection equipment at the Stewart Crossing South substation. The Yukon government, through the Yukon Development Corporation, has already provided $3.5 million towards planning for the project.

Replacing the Mayo to McQuesten transmission line is critical to Yukon Energy’s ability to deliver safe and reliable electricity to customers in the Mayo and Keno regions, mirroring broader regional transmission initiatives that enhance grid resilience, and to support economic growth in Yukon. The transmission line has reached end-of-life and become increasingly unreliable for customers in the area.

The First Nation of Na-Cho Nyak Dun has expressed their support of this project. The project has also been approved by the Yukon Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment Board.

Yukon Energy will begin replacing and upgrading the 31 km transmission line between Mayo and McQuesten in 2020. Construction is expected to be complete in late 2020. When finished, the new 138 kV transmission line will provide more reliable electricity to customers in the Mayo and Keno regions and be equipped to support industrial growth and development in the area, including the Victoria Gold Mine, with renewable power from the Yukon grid.

Planning work for the remainder of the Stewart to Keno City Transmission Project has been completed. Yukon Energy continues to explore funding opportunities that are needed to proceed with other stages of the project.

 

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Ontario Teachers' Plan Acquires Brazilian Electricity Transmission Firm Evoltz

Ontario Teachers' Evoltz Acquisition expands electricity transmission in Brazil, adding seven grid lines across ten states, aligning infrastructure strategy with inflation-linked cash flows, renewable energy integration, Latin America and net-zero objectives pending regulatory approvals.

 

Key Points

A 100% purchase of Brazil's Evoltz, adding seven grid lines and delivering stable, inflation-linked cash flows.

✅ 100% stake in Evoltz with seven transmission lines

✅ Aligns with net-zero and renewable energy strategy

✅ Inflation-linked, core infrastructure cash flows in Brazil

 

The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan has acquired Evoltz Participações, an electricity transmission firm in Brazil, from US asset manager TPG. 

The retirement system took a 100% stake in the energy firm, Ontario Teachers’ said Monday. The acquisition has netted the pension fund seven electricity transmission lines that service consumers and businesses across 10 states in Brazil, amid dynamics similar to electricity rate reductions for businesses seen in Ontario. The firm was founded by TPG just three years ago. 

“Our strategy focuses on allocating significant capital to high-quality core infrastructure assets with lower risks and stable inflation-linked cash flows,” Dale Burgess, senior managing director of infrastructure and natural resources at Ontario Teachers, said in a statement. “Electricity transmission businesses are particularly attractive given their importance in facilitating a transition to a low-carbon economy.” 

The pension fund has invested in other electricity distribution companies recently. In March, Ontario Teachers’ took a 40% stake in Finland’s Caruna, and agreed to acquire a 25% stake in SSEN Transmission in the UK grid. For more than a decade, it has maintained a 50% stake in Chile-based transmission firm Saesa. 

The investment into Evoltz demonstrates Ontario Teachers’ growing portfolio in Brazil and Latin America, while activity in Ontario such as the Peterborough Distribution sale reflects ongoing utility consolidation. In 2016, the firm, with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), invested in toll roads in Mexico. They took a 49% stake with Latin American infrastructure group IDEAL. 

Evoltz, which delivers renewable energy, will also help decarbonize the pension fund’s portfolio. In January, the fund pledged to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Last year, Ontario Teachers’ issued its first green bond offering. The $890 million 10-year bond will help the retirement system fund sustainable investments aligned with policy measures like Ontario's subsidized hydro plan during COVID-19. 

However, Ontario Teachers’ has also received criticism for its investment into parts of Abu Dhabi’s gas pipeline network, and investor concerns about Hydro One highlight sector uncertainties. Last summer, it joined other institutional investors in investing $10.1 billion for a 49% stake. 

As of December, Ontario Teachers’ reached a portfolio with C$221.2 billion (US$182.5 billion) in assets. Since 1990, the fund has maintained a 9.6% annualized return. Last year, it missed its benchmark with an 8.6% return, with examples such as Hydro One shares fall after shake-up underscoring market volatility.

The pension fund expects the deal will close later this fall, pending closing conditions and regulatory approvals, including decisions such as the OEB combined T&D rates ruling that shape utility economics. 

 

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New England takes key step to 1.2 GW of Quebec hydro as Maine approves transmission line

NECEC Clean Energy Connect advances with Maine DEP permits, Hydro-Québec contracts, and rigorous transmission line mitigation, including tapered vegetation, culvert upgrades, and forest conservation, delivering low-carbon power, broadband fiber, and projected ratepayer savings.

 

Key Points

A Maine transmission project delivering Hydro-Québec power with strict DEP mitigation, lower bills, and added broadband.

✅ DEP permits mandate tapered vegetation, culvert upgrades, land conservation

✅ Hydro-Québec to supply 9.55 TWh/yr via MA contracts; bill savings 2-4%

✅ Added broadband fiber in Somerset and Franklin; local tax benefits

 

The Maine DEP reviewed the Clean Energy Connect project for more than two years, while regional interest in cross-border transmission continued to grow, before issuing permits that included additional environmental mitigation elements.

"Collectively, the requirements of the permit require an unprecedented level of environmental protection and compensatory land conservation for the construction of a transmission line in the state of Maine," DEP said in a May 11 statement.

Requirements include limits on transmission corridor width, forest preservation, culvert replacement and vegetation management projects, while broader grid programs like vehicle-to-grid integration enhance clean energy utilization across the region.

"In our original proposal we worked hard to develop a project that provided robust mitigation measures to protect the environment," NECEC Transmission CEO Thorn Dickinson said in a statement. "And through this permitting process, we now have made an exceedingly good project even better for Maine."

NECEC will be built on land owned or controlled by Central Maine Power. The 53 miles of new corridor on working forest land will use a new clearing technique for tapered vegetation, while the remainder of the project follows existing power lines.

Environmentalists said they agreed with the decision, and the mitigation measures state regulators took, noting similar momentum behind new wind investments in other parts of Canada.

"Building new ways to deliver low-carbon energy to our region is a critical piece of tackling the climate crisis," CLF Senior Attorney Phelps Turner said in a statement. "DEP was absolutely right to impose significant environmental conditions on this project and ensure that it does not harm critical wildlife areas."

Once complete, Turner said the transmission line will allow the region "to retire dirty fossil fuel plants in the coming years, which is a win for our health and our climate."

The Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities in June 2019 advanced the project by approving contracts for the state's utilities to purchase 9,554,940 MWh annually from Hydro-Quebec. Officials said the project is expected to provide approximately 2% to 4% savings on monthly energy bills.

Total net benefits to Massachusetts ratepayers over the 20-year contract, including both direct and indirect benefits, are expected to be approximately $4 billion, according to the state's estimates.

NECEC "will also deliver significant economic benefits to Maine and the region, including lower electricity prices, increased local real estate taxes and reduced energy costs with examples like battery-backed community microgrids demonstrating local resilience, expanded fiber optic cable for broadband service in Somerset and Franklin counties and funding of economic development for Western Maine," project developers said in a statement.​

 

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Opinion: The dilemma over electricity rates and innovation

Canadian Electricity Innovation drives a customer-centric, data-driven grid, integrating renewable energy, EVs, storage, and responsive loads to boost reliability, resilience, affordability, and sustainability while aligning regulators, utilities, and policy for decarbonization.

 

Key Points

A plan to modernize the grid, aligning utilities, regulators, and tech to deliver clean, reliable, affordable power.

✅ Smart grid supports EVs, storage, solar, and responsive loads.

✅ Innovation funding and regulatory alignment cut long-term costs.

✅ Resilience rises against extreme weather and outage risks.

 

For more than 100 years, Canadian electricity companies had a very simple mandate: provide reliable, safe power to all. Keep the lights on, as some would say. And they did just that.

Today, however, they are expected to also provide a broad range of energy services through a data-driven, customer-centric system operations platform that can manage, among other things, responsive loads, electric vehicles, storage devices and solar generation. All the while meeting environmental and social sustainability — and delivering on affordability.

Not an easy task, especially amid a looming electrical supply crunch that complicates planning.

That’s why this new mandate requires an ironclad commitment to innovation excellence. Not simply replacing “like with like,” or to make incremental progress, but to fundamentally reimagine our electricity system and how Canadians relate to it.

Our innovators in the electricity sector are stepping up to the plate and coming up with ingenious ideas, thanks to an annual investment of some $20 billion.

#google#

But they are presented with a dilemma.

Although Canada enjoys among the cleanest, most reliable electricity in the world, we have seen a sharp spike in its politicization. Electricity rates have become the rage and a top-of-mind issue for many Canadians, as highlighted by the Ontario hydro debate over rate plans. Ontario’s election reflects that passion.

This heightened attention places greater pressure on provincial governments, who regulate prices, and in jurisdictions like the Alberta electricity market questions about competition further influence those decisions. In turn, they delegate down to the actual regulators where, at their public hearings, the overwhelming and almost exclusive objective becomes: Keeping costs down.

Consequently, innovation pilot applications by Canadian electricity companies are routinely rejected by regulators, all in the name of cost constraints.

Clearly, electricity companies must be frugal and keep rates as low as possible.

No one likes paying more for their electricity. Homeowners don’t like it and neither do businesses.

Ironically, our rates are actually among the lowest in the world. But the mission of our political leaders should not be a race to the basement suite of prices. Nor should cheap gimmicks masquerade as serious policy solutions. Not if we are to be responsible to future generations.

We must therefore avoid, at all costs, building on the cheap.

Without constant innovation, reliability will suffer, especially as we battle more extreme weather events. In addition, we will not meet the future climate and clean energy targets such as the Clean Electricity Regulations for 2050 that all governments have set and continuously talk about. It is therefore incumbent upon our governments to spur a dynamic culture of innovation. And they must sync this with their regulators.

This year’s federal budget failed to build on the 2017 investments. One-time public-sector funding mechanisms are not enough. Investments must be sustained for the long haul.

To help promote and celebrate what happens when innovation is empowered by utilities, the Canadian Electricity Association has launched Canada’s first Centre of Excellence on electricity. The centre showcases cutting-edge development in how electricity is produced, delivered and consumed. Moreover, it highlights the economic, social and environmental benefits for Canadians.

One of the innovations celebrated by the centre was developed by Nova Scotia’s own NS Power. The company has been recognized for its groundbreaking Intelligent Feeder Project that generates power through a combination of a wind farm, a substation, and nearly a dozen Tesla batteries, reflecting broader clean grid and battery trends across Canada.

Political leaders must, of course, respond to the emotions and needs of their electors. But they must also lead.

That’s why ongoing long-term investments must be embedded in the policies of federal, provincial and territorial governments, and their respective regulatory systems. And Canada’s private sector cannot just point the finger to governments. They, too, must deliver, by incorporating meaningful innovation strategies into their corporate cultures and vision.

That’s the straightforward innovation challenge, as it is for the debate over rates.

But it also represents a generational opportunity, because if we get innovation right we will build that better, greener future that Canadians aspire to.

Sergio Marchi is president and CEO of the Canadian Electricity Association. He is a former Member of Parliament, cabinet minister, and Canadian Ambassador to the World Trade Organization and United Nations in Geneva.

 

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Canada's nationwide climate success — electricity

Canada Clean Electricity leads decarbonization, slashing power-sector emissions through coal phase-out, renewables like hydro, wind, and solar, and nuclear. Provinces cut carbon intensity, enabling electrification of transport and buildings toward net-zero goals.

 

Key Points

Canada Clean Electricity is the shift to low-emission power by phasing out coal and scaling renewables and nuclear.

✅ 38% cut in electricity emissions since 2005; 84% fossil-free power.

✅ Provinces lead coal phase-out; carbon intensity plummets.

✅ Enables EVs, heat pumps, and building electrification.

 

It's our country’s one big climate success so far.

"All across Canada, electricity generation has been getting much cleaner. It's our country’s one big climate success so far,"

To illustrate how quickly electric power is being cleaned up, what's still left to do, and the benefits it brings, I've dug into Canada's latest emissions inventory and created a series of charts below.

 

The sector that could

Climate pollution by Canadian economic sector, 2005 to 2017My first chart shows how Canada's economic sectors have changed their climate pollution since 2005.

While most sectors have increased their pollution or made little progress in the climate fight, our electricity sector has shined.

As the green line shows, Canadians have eliminated an impressive 38 per cent of the climate pollution from electricity generation in just over a decade.

To put these shifts into context, I've shown Canada's 2020 climate target on the chart as a gray star. This target was set by the Harper government as part of the global Copenhagen Accord. Specifically, Canada pledged to cut our climate pollution 17 per cent below 2005 levels under evolving Canadian climate policy frameworks of the time.

As you can see, the electricity sector is the only one to have done that so far. And it didn’t just hit the target — it cut more than twice as much.

Change in Canada's electricity generation, 2005 to 2017My next chart shows how the electricity mix changed. The big climate pollution cuts came primarily from reductions in coal burning, highlighting the broader implications of decarbonizing Canada's electricity grid for fuel choices.

The decline in coal-fired power was replaced (and then some) by increases in renewable electricity and other zero-emissions sources — hydro, wind, solar and nuclear.

As a result, Canada's overall electricity generation is now 84 per cent fossil free.

 

Every province making progress

A primary reason why electricity emissions fell so quickly is because every province worked to clean up Canada's electricity together.

Change in Canadian provincial electricity carbon intensity, 2005 to 2017

My next chart illustrates this rare example of Canada-wide climate progress. It shows how quickly the carbon-intensity of electricity generation has declined in different provinces.

(Note: carbon-intensity is the amount of climate pollution emitted per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated: gCO2e/kWh).

Ontario clearly led the way with an amazing 92 per cent reduction in climate pollution per kWh in just twelve years. Most of that came from ending the burning of coal in their power plants. But a big chunk also came from cutting in half the amount of natural gas they burn for electricity.

Manitoba, Quebec and B.C. also made huge improvements.

Even Alberta and Saskatchewan, which were otherwise busy increasing their overall climate pollution, made progress in cleaning up their electricity.

These real-world examples show that rapid and substantial climate progress can happen in Canada when a broad-spectrum of political parties and provinces decide to act.

Most Canadians now have superclean electricity

As a result of this rapid cleanup, most Canadians now have access to superclean energy.

Canadian provincial electricity carbon intensity in 2017

 

Who has it? And how clean is it?

The biggest climate story here is the superclean electricity generated by the four provinces shown on the left side — Quebec, Manitoba, B.C. and Ontario. Eighty per cent of Canadians live in these provinces and have access to this climate-safe energy source.

Those living in Alberta and Saskatchewan, however, still have fairly dirty electricity — as shown in orange on the right — and options like bridging the electricity gap between Alberta and B.C. could accelerate progress in the West.

A lot more cleanup must happen here before the families and businesses in these provinces have a climate-safe energy supply.

 

What's left to do?

Canada's electricity sector has two big climate tasks remaining: finishing the cleanup of existing power and generating even more clean energy to replace fossil fuels like the gasoline and natural gas used by vehicles, factories and other buildings.

 

Finishing the clean up

Climate pollution from Canadian provincial electricity 2005 and 2017

As we saw above, more than a third of the climate pollution from electricity has already been eliminated. That leaves nearly two-thirds still to clean up.

Back in 2005, Canada's total electricity emissions were 125 million tonnes (MtCO2).

Over the next twelve years, emissions fell by more than a third (-46 MtCO2). Ontario did most of the work by cutting 33 MtCO2. Alberta, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia made the next biggest cuts of around 4 MtCO2 each.

Now nearly eighty million tonnes of climate pollution remain.

As you can see, nearly all of that now comes from Alberta and Saskatchewan. As a result, continuing Canada's climate progress in the power sector now requires big cuts in the electricity emissions from these two provinces.

 

Generating more clean electricity

The second big climate task remaining for Canada's electricity is to generate more clean electricity to replace the fossil fuels burned in other sectors. My next chart lets you see how big a task this is.

 

Clean electricity generation by Canadian province, 2017

It shows how much climate-safe electricity is currently generated in major provinces. This includes zero-emissions renewables (blue bars) and nuclear power (pale blue).

Quebec tops the list with 191 terawatt-hours (TWh) per year. While impressive, it only accounts for around half of the energy Quebecers use. The other half still comes from climate-damaging fossil fuels and to replace those, Quebec will need to build out more clean energy.

The good news here is that electricity is more efficient for most tasks, so fossil fuels can be replaced with significantly less electric energy. In addition, other efficiency and reduction measures can further reduce the amount of new electricity needed.

Newfoundland and Labrador is in the best situation. They are the only province that already generates more climate-safe electricity than they would need to replace all the fossil fuels they burn. They currently export most of that clean electricity.

At the other extreme are Alberta and Saskatchewan. These provinces currently produce very little climate-safe energy. For example, Alberta's 7 TWh of climate-safe electricity is only enough to cover 1 per cent of the energy used in the province.

All told, Canadians currently burn fossil fuels for three-quarters of the energy we use. To preserve a safe-and-sane climate, most provinces will soon need lots more clean electricity in the race to net-zero to replace the fossil fuels we burn.

How soon will they need it?

According to the most recent report from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), avoiding a full-blown climate crisis will require humanity to cut emissions by 45 per cent over the next decade.

 

Using electricity to clean up other sectors

Finally, let's look at how electricity can help clean up two of Canada’s other high-emission sectors — transportation and buildings.

 

Cleaning up transportation

Transportation is now the second biggest climate polluting sector in Canada (after the oil and gas industry). So, it’s a top priority to reduce the amount of gasoline we use.

Canadian provincial electricity carbon intensity in 2017, plus gasoline equivalent

Switching to electric vehicles (EVs) can reduce transportation emissions by a little, or a lot. It depends on how clean the electricity supply is.

To make it easy to compare gasoline to each province's electricity I've added a new grey-striped zone at the top of the carbon-intensity chart.

This new zone shows that burning gasoline in cars and trucks has a carbon-intensity equivalent to more than 1,000 gCO2e/kWh. (If you are interested in the details of this and other data points, see the geeky endnotes.)

The good news is that every province's electricity is now much cleaner than gasoline as a transportation fuel.

In fact, most Canadians have electricity that is at least 95 per cent less climate polluting than gasoline. Electrifying vehicles in these provinces virtually eliminates those transportation emissions.

Even in Alberta, which has the dirtiest electricity, it is 20 per cent cleaner than gasoline. That's a help, for sure. But it also means that Albertans must electrify many more vehicles to achieve the same emissions reductions as regions with cleaner electricity.

In addition to reducing climate pollution, switching transportation to electricity brings other big benefits:

It reduces air pollution in cities — a major health hazard.

It cuts the energy required for transportation by 75 per cent — because electric motors are so much more efficient.

It reduces fuel costs up to 80 per cent — saving tens of thousands of dollars.

And for gasoline-importing provinces, using local electricity keeps billions of fuel dollars inside their provincial economy.

As an extra bonus, it makes it hard for companies to manipulate the price or for outsiders to "turn off the taps.”

 

Cleaning up buildings

Canada's third biggest source of climate pollution is the buildings sector.

Burning natural gas for heating is the primary cause. So, reducing the amount of fossil gas burned in buildings is another top climate requirement.

Canadian provincial electricity carbon intensity in 2017, plus gasoline and nat gas heating equivalent

Heating with electricity is a common alternative. However, it's not always less climate polluting. It depends on how clean the electricity is.

To compare these two heating sources, look at the lower grey-striped zone I've added to the chart.

It shows that heating with natural gas has a carbon-intensity of 200 to 300 gCO2 per kWh of heat delivered. High-efficiency gas furnaces are at the lower end of this range.

As you can see, for most Canadians, electric heat is now the much cleaner choice — nearly eliminating emissions from buildings. But in Alberta and Saskatchewan, electricity is still too dirty to replace natural gas heat.

The climate benefits of electric heat can be improved further by using the newer high-efficiency air-source heat pump technologies like mini-splits. These can heat using one half to one third of the electricity of standard electric baseboard heaters. That means it is possible to use electricity that is a bit dirtier than natural gas and still deliver cleaner heating. As a bonus, heat pumps can free up a lot of existing electricity supply when used to replace existing electric baseboards.

 

Electrify everything

You’ve probably heard people say that to fight climate breakdown, we need to “electrify everything.” Of course, the electricity itself needs to be clean and what we’ve seen is that Canada is making important progress on that front. The electricity industry, and the politicians that prodded them, all deserve kudos for slashing emissions at more than twice the rate of any other sector.

We still need to finish the cleanup job, but we also need to turn our sights to the even bigger task ahead: requiring that everything fossil fuelled — every building, every factory, every vehicle — switches to clean Canadian power.

 

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