Billions needed for infrastructure

By Toronto Star


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Canada needs to invest $15 billion a year over the next 20 years to upgrade its electricity system, says the head of the Canadian Electricity Association.

But Pierre Guimond wouldnÂ’t say exactly how much that massive investment is likely to cost consumers and businesses on their hydro bills.

Rising bills have been drawing anger from some consumers, and are being used by the Conservatives to attack the Liberals in the run-up to this fallÂ’s provincial election.

Guimond insisted in a speech to the Economic Club of Canada that “electricity is still a bargain” at current prices.

But he warned that prices canÂ’t stay where they are.

Investment in the power system has slowed significantly in the past 20 years, Guimond said.

“During this time, government and the electricity industry shifted their attention to keeping electricity prices as low as possible for customers,” he said.

Now, equipment is wearing out and has to be replaced, he said, triggering the need for heavy investment.

Asked afterward how much consumers should expect to pay if investment ramps up, he replied, “I don’t know what the answer is to that question, but we should be paying for the most reliable, low-cost system that’s environmentally sound that we can afford.”

Ontario isn’t alone, he said. “Right across North America over the next two decades, we’ll be paying more for electricity.”

Ontario has already signaled that investment and prices are heading higher.

Its long-term energy plan, released last year, projects investment of $87 billion over the next 20 years in the electricity system.

A typical monthly hydro bill of $114 in 2009 will by $218 by 2021, the province projects. ThatÂ’s the equivalent of $172 in todayÂ’s dollars, if inflation is factored out.

The electricity association represents companies that generate and deliver electricity.

Guimond says cost increases are inevitable.

“The cost of everything is much higher than when we first built the system,” he said.

Transformers used to be built in North America, for example, and could be expected to last 40 years, he said. Now theyÂ’re built offshore.

“They don’t last as long as the ones we used to have, and they cost a lot more,” he said.

Guimond says he expects nuclear and hydropower to remain the workhorses of the power system.

Ontario is investing heavily in renewables such as solar, wind and gas made from plant waste.

But Guimond said itÂ’s still difficult to integrate big volumes of renewable power into the system, since it can be highly variable, and often is produced when itÂ’s least needed.

“There’s a technical dimension to this,” he said. “The Europeans are struggling with it, the Americans are struggling with the same issues.”

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Washington County planning officials develop proposed recommendations for solar farms

Washington County solar farm incentives aim to steer projects to industrial sites with tax breaks, underground grid connections, decommissioning bonds, and wildlife corridors, balancing zoning, historic preservation, and Maryland renewable energy mandates.

 

Key Points

Policies steer solar to industrial sites with tax breaks, buried lines, and bonds, aligning with zoning and state goals.

✅ Tax breaks to favor rooftops and parking canopies

✅ Bury new grid lines to shift projects to industrial parks

✅ Require decommissioning bonds and wildlife corridors

 

Incentives for establishing solar farms at industrial spaces instead of on prime farmland are among the ideas the Washington County Planning Commission is recommending for the county to update its policies regarding solar farms.

Potential incentives would include tax breaks on solar equipment and requiring developers to put power-grid connections and line extensions underground, a move tied to grid upgrade cost debates in other regions, Planning Commission members said during a Monday meeting.

The tax break could make it more attractive for a developer to put a solar farm on a roof or over a parking lot, similar to California's building-solar requirement policies that favor rooftop generation, which could cost more than putting it on farmland, said Commission member Dave Kline, who works for FirstEnergy.

Requiring a company to bury new transmission lines could steer them to industrial or business parks where, theoretically, transmission lines are more readily available, Kline said Wednesday in a phone interview.

Chairman Clint Wiley suggested talking to industrial property owners to create a list of industrial sites that make sense for a solar site, which could generate extra income for the property owner.

Commission members also talked about requiring a wildlife corridor. Anne Arundel County requires such a corridor if a solar site is over 15 acres, according to Jill Baker, deputy director of planning and zoning. The solar site is broken into sections so animals such as deer can get through, she said.

However, that means the solar farm would take up more agricultural land, Commission member Jeremiah Weddle said. Weddle, a farmer, has repeatedly voiced concerns about solar farms using prime farmland.

County zoning law already states solar farms are prohibited in Rural Legacy Areas, Priority Preservation Areas, and within Antietam Overlay zones that preserve the Antietam National Battlefield viewshed. They also cannot be built on land with permanent preservation easements, Baker said.

However, a big reason county officials are looking to strengthen county policies for solar generating systems, or solar farms, is a recent court decision that ruled the Maryland Public Service Commission can preempt county zoning law when it comes to large solar farms.

County zoning law defines a solar energy generating system as a solar facility, with multiple solar arrays, tied into the power grid and whose primary purpose is to generate power to distribute and/or sell into the public utility grid rather than consuming that power on site.

The Maryland Court of Appeals ruled in July that the Public Service Commission can preempt local zoning regarding solar farms larger than 2 megawatts. But the ruling also stated local government is a "significant participant in the process" and the state commission must give "due consideration" to local zoning laws.

County officials are looking at recommendations for solar farms, whether they are over 2 megawatts or not.

Solar farms are a popular issue statewide, especially with Maryland solar subscriptions expanding, and were discussed at a recent Maryland Association of Counties meeting for planners, Planning and Zoning Director Stephen Goodrich said.

The thinking is the best way for counties to express their opinions about a solar project is to participate in the state commission's local public hearings, where issues like how solar owners are paid often arise, Goodrich said. Another popular idea is for the county to continue to follow its process, which requires a public hearing for a special exception to establish a solar farm. That will help the county form an opinion, on individual cases, to offer the state commission, he said.

Recommendations discussed by the Planning Commission include:

A break on personal property taxes, which is on equipment, including affordable battery storage that can firm output, to steer developers away from areas where the county doesn't want solar farms. The Board of County Commissioners have been split on tax-break agreements for solar farms, with a majority recently granting a few.

 

Protecting valuable historic sites.

Requiring a decommissioning bond for removing the equipment at the end of the solar farm's life. The bond is protection in case the company goes bankrupt. The county commissioners have been making such a bond a requirement when granting recent tax breaks.

Looking at allowing solar farms in stormwater-management areas.

Other counties, particularly in Western Maryland and on the Eastern Shore, are having issues with solar farms even as research to improve solar and wind advances, because land is cheaper and there are wide-open spaces, Goodrich said.

Many solar projects are being developed or proposed because state lawmakers passed legislation requiring 50% of electricity produced in the state to come from renewable sources by 2030, and a federal plan to expand solar is also shaping expectations. Of that 50%, 14.5% is to come from solar energy.

In Maryland, the average number of homes that can be powered by 1 megawatt of solar energy is about 110, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association's website.

 

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India's electricity demand falls at the fastest pace in at least 12 years

India Industrial Output Slowdown deepens as power demand slumps, IIP contracts, and electricity, manufacturing, and mining weaken; capital goods plunge while RBI rate cuts struggle to lift GDP growth, infrastructure, and fuel demand.

 

Key Points

A downturn where IIP contracts as power demand, manufacturing, mining, and capital goods fall despite RBI rate cuts.

✅ IIP fell 4.3% in Sep, worst since Feb 2013.

✅ Power demand dropped for a third month, signaling weak industry.

✅ Capital goods output plunged 20.7%, highlighting weak investment.

 

India's power demand fell at the fastest pace in at least 12 years in October, signalling a continued decline in the industrial output, mirroring how China's power demand dropped when plants were shuttered, according to government data. Electricity has about 8% weighting in the country's index for industrial production.

India needs electricity to fuel its expanding economy and has at times rationed coal supplies when demand surged, but a third decline in power consumption in as many months points to tapering industrial activity in a nation that aims to become a $5 trillion economy by 2024.

India's industrial output fell at the fastest pace in over six years in September, adding to a series of weak indicators that suggests that the country’s economic slowdown is deep-rooted and interest rate cuts alone may not be enough to revive growth.

Annual industrial output contracted 4.3% in September, government data showed on Monday. It was the worst performance since a 4.4% contraction in February 2013, according to Refinitiv data.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast industrial output to fall 2% for the month.

“A contraction of industrial production by 4.3% in September is serious and indicative of a significant slowdown as both investment and consumption demand have collapsed,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist of L&T Finance Holdings.

The industrial output figure is the latest in a series of worrying economic data in Asia's third largest economy, which is also the world's third-largest electricity producer as well.

Economists say that weak series of data could mean economic growth for July-September period will remain near April-June quarter levels of 5%, which was a six-year low, and some analysts argue for rewiring India's electricity to bolster productivity. The Indian government is likely to release April-September economic growth figures by the end of this month.

Subdued inflation and an economic slowdown have prompted the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates by a total of 135 basis points this year, while coal and electricity shortages eased in recent months.

“These are tough times for the RBI, as it cannot do much about it but there will be pressures on it to act ...Blunt tools like monetary policy may not be effective anymore,” Nitsure said.

Data showed in September mining sector fell 8.5%, while manufacturing and electricity fell 3.9% and 2.6% respectively, even as imported coal volumes rose during April-October. Capital goods output during the month fell 20.7%, indicating sluggish demand.

“IIP (Index of Industrial Production) growth in October 2019 is also likely to be in negative territory and only since November 2019 one can expect mild IIP expansion, said Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist and Senior Director, Public Finance, India Ratings & Research (Fitch Group).

Infrastructure output, which comprises eight main sectors, in September showed a contraction of 5.2%, the worst in 14 years, even as global daily electricity demand fell about 15% during pandemic lockdowns.

India's fuel demand fell to its lowest in more than two years in September, with consumption of diesel to its lowest levels since January 2017. Diesel and gasoline together make up over 7.4% of the IIP weightage.

In 2019/20 India's fuel demand — also seen as an indicator of economic and industrial activity — is expected to post the slowest growth in about six years.

 

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UK must start construction of large-scale storage or fail to meet net zero targets.

UK Hydrogen Storage Caverns enable long-duration, low-carbon electricity balancing, storing surplus wind and solar power as green hydrogen in salt formations to enhance grid reliability, energy security, and net zero resilience by 2035 and 2050.

 

Key Points

They are salt caverns storing green hydrogen to balance wind and solar, stabilizing a low-carbon UK grid.

✅ Stores surplus wind and solar as green hydrogen in salt caverns

✅ Enables long-duration, low-carbon grid balancing and security

✅ Complements wind and solar; reduces dependence on flexible CCS

 

The U.K. government must kick-start the construction of large-scale hydrogen storage facilities if it is to meet its pledge that all electricity will come from low-carbon electricity sources by 2035 and reach legally binding net zero targets by 2050, according to a report by the Royal Society.

The report, "Large-scale electricity storage," published Sep. 8, examines a wide variety of ways to store surplus wind and solar generated electricity—including green hydrogen, advanced compressed air energy storage (ACAES), ammonia, and heat—which will be needed when Great Britain's electricity generation is dominated by volatile wind and solar power.

It concludes that large scale electricity storage is essential to mitigate variations in wind and sunshine, particularly long-term variations in the wind, and to keep the nation's lights on. Storing most of the surplus as hydrogen, in salt caverns, would be the cheapest way of doing this.

The report, based on 37 years of weather data, finds that in 2050 up to 100 Terawatt-hours (TWh) of storage will be needed, which would have to be capable of meeting around a quarter of the U.K.'s current annual electricity demand. This would be equivalent to more than 5,000 Dinorwig pumped hydroelectric dams. Storage on this scale, which would require up to 90 clusters of 10 caverns, is not possible with batteries or pumped hydro.

Storage requirements on this scale are not currently foreseen by the government, and the U.K.'s energy transition faces supply delays. Work on constructing these caverns should begin immediately if the government is to have any chance of meeting its net zero targets, the report states.

Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith FRS, lead author of the report, said, "The need for long-term storage has been seriously underestimated. Demand for electricity is expected to double by 2050 with the electrification of heat, transport, and industrial processing, as well as increases in the use of air conditioning, economic growth, and changes in population.

"It will mainly be met by wind and solar generation. They are the cheapest forms of low-carbon electricity generation, but are volatile—wind varies on a decadal timescale, so will have to be complemented by large scale supply from energy storage or other sources."

The only other large-scale low-carbon sources are nuclear power, gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS), and bioenergy without or with CCS (BECCS). While nuclear and gas with CCS are expected to play a role, they are expensive, especially if operated flexibly.

Sir Peter Bruce, vice president of the Royal Society, said, "Ensuring our future electricity supply remains reliable and resilient will be crucial for our future prosperity and well-being. An electricity system with significant wind and solar generation is likely to offer the lowest cost electricity but it is essential to have large-scale energy stores that can be accessed quickly to ensure Great Britain's energy security and sovereignty."

Combining hydrogen with ACAES, or other forms of storage that are more efficient than hydrogen, could lower the average cost of electricity overall, and would lower the required level of wind power and solar supply.

There are currently three hydrogen storage caverns in the U.K., which have been in use since 1972, and the British Geological Survey has identified the geology for ample storage capacity in Cheshire, Wessex and East Yorkshire. Appropriate, novel business models and market structures will be needed to encourage construction of the large number of additional caverns that will be needed, the report says.

Sir Chris observes that, although nuclear, hydro and other sources are likely to play a role, Britain could in principle be powered solely by wind power and solar, supported by hydrogen, and some small-scale storage provided, for example, by batteries, that can respond rapidly and to stabilize the grid. While the cost of electricity would be higher than in the last decade, we anticipate it would be much lower than in 2022, he adds.

 

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Renewables Surpass Coal in India's Energy Capacity Shift

India Renewable Energy Surge 2024 signals coal's decline as solar and wind capacity soar, aided by policy incentives, grid upgrades, energy storage, and falling costs, accelerating decarbonization and clean power growth.

 

Key Points

Q1 2024 saw renewables outpace coal in new capacity, led by cheaper solar, wind, policy support, and storage.

✅ 71.5% of new Q1 capacity came from renewables

✅ Solar and wind expand on falling costs and faster permitting

✅ Grid integration needs storage, skills, and just transition

 

In a landmark shift for the world's second-most populous nation, coal has finally been dethroned as the king of India's energy supply. The first quarter of 2024 saw a historic surge in renewable energy capacity, particularly on-grid solar development across states, pushing its share of power generation past 71.5%. This remarkable feat marks a turning point in India's journey towards a cleaner and more sustainable energy future.

For decades, coal has been the backbone of India's power sector, fueling rapid economic growth but also leading to concerning levels of air pollution. However, a confluence of factors has driven this dramatic shift, even as coal generation surges create short-term fluctuations in the mix. Firstly, the cost of solar and wind power has plummeted in recent years, making them increasingly competitive with coal. Secondly, the Indian government has set ambitious renewable energy targets, aiming for 50% of cumulative power generation capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030. Thirdly, growing public awareness about the environmental impact of coal has spurred a demand for cleaner alternatives.

This surge in renewables is not just about replacing coal. The first quarter of 2024 witnessed a record-breaking addition of 13,669 megawatts (MW) of power generation capacity, with renewables accounting for a staggering 71.5% of that figure, aligning with 30% global renewable electricity milestones seen worldwide. This rapid expansion is driven by factors like falling equipment costs, streamlined permitting processes, and attractive government incentives. Solar and wind energy are leading the charge, and in other major markets renewables are projected to reach one-fourth of U.S. generation in the near term, with large-scale solar farms and wind turbine installations dotting the Indian landscape.

The transition away from coal presents both opportunities and challenges. On the positive side, cleaner air will lead to significant health benefits for millions of Indians. Additionally, India can establish itself as a global leader in the renewable energy sector, attracting investments and creating new jobs, echoing how China's solar PV expansion reshaped markets in the previous decade. However, challenges remain. Integrating such a large amount of variable renewable energy sources like solar and wind into the grid requires robust energy storage solutions. Furthermore, millions of jobs in the coal sector need to be transitioned to new opportunities in the green economy.

Despite these challenges, India's move towards renewables is a significant development with global implications, as U.S. renewable electricity surpassed coal in 2022, underscoring broader momentum. It demonstrates the growing viability of clean energy solutions and paves the way for other developing nations to follow suit. India's success story can inspire a global shift towards a more sustainable energy future, one powered by the sun, wind, and other renewable resources.

Looking ahead, continued government support, technological advancements, and innovative financing mechanisms will be crucial for sustaining India's renewable energy momentum. The future of India's energy sector is undoubtedly bright, fueled by the clean and abundant power of the sun and the wind, as wind and solar surpassed coal in the U.S. in recent comparisons. The world will be watching closely to see if India can successfully navigate this energy transition, setting an example for other nations struggling to balance development with environmental responsibility.

 

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Philippines wants Canada's help to avoid China, U.S

Philippines-Canada Indo-Pacific Partnership strengthens ASEAN cooperation, maritime security, and South China Sea diplomacy, balancing U.S.-China rivalry through a rules-based order, trade diversification, and middle-power engagement to foster regional stability and sustainable growth.

 

Key Points

A strategic pact to balance U.S.-China rivalry, back ASEAN, and advance maritime security and a rules-based order

✅ Prioritizes ASEAN-led cooperation and regional diplomacy

✅ Supports maritime security and South China Sea stability

✅ Diversifies trade, infrastructure, energy, and education ties

 

The Philippines finds itself caught in a geopolitical tug-of-war between the United States and China, two superpowers with competing interests in the Indo-Pacific region. To navigate this complex situation, the Philippines is seeking closer ties with Canada, a middle power with a strong focus on diplomacy and regional cooperation and a deepening U.S.-Canada energy and minerals partnership that reinforces shared strategic interests.

The Philippines, like many Southeast Asian nations, desires peace and stability for continued economic growth. However, the intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China threatens to disrupt this. Territorial disputes in the South China Sea, where China claims vast swathes of waters contested by the Philippines, are a major point of contention. The Philippines has a long-standing alliance with the U.S., whose current administration is viewed as better for Canada's energy sector by some observers, but it also has growing economic ties with China. This delicate balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult.

This is where Canada enters the picture. The Philippines sees Canada as a potential bridge between the two superpowers. Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo emphasizes that the future of the Indo-Pacific shouldn't be dictated by "great power rivalry." Canada, with its emphasis on peaceful solutions and its strong relationships with both the U.S. and China, despite electricity exports at risk from periodic trade tensions, presents a welcome alternative.

There are several reasons why the Philippines views Canada as a natural partner. First, Canada's Indo-Pacific strategy prioritizes the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a regional bloc that includes the Philippines, and reflects trade policy debates in Ottawa where Canadians support tariffs on energy and minerals. This focus on regional cooperation aligns with the Philippines' desire for a united ASEAN voice.

Second, Canada offers the Philippines opportunities for economic diversification. While China is a significant trading partner, the Philippines wants to lessen its dependence on any single power. Canada's expertise in areas like agriculture, infrastructure, education, and renewable energy aligns with the Philippines' clean energy commitment and development goals.

Third, Canada's experience in peacekeeping and maritime security can be valuable to the Philippines. The Philippines faces challenges in the South China Sea, and Canada's commitment to a rules-based international order resonates with the Philippines' desire for peaceful resolution of territorial disputes.

Canada, for its part, sees the Philippines as a strategically important partner in the Indo-Pacific. A stronger Philippines contributes to a more stable region, which aligns with Canada's own interests. Additionally, closer ties with the Philippines open doors for increased Canadian trade and investment in Southeast Asia, including in critical minerals supply chains and energy projects.

The Philippines' pursuit of a middle ground between the U.S. and China is not without its challenges. Balancing strong relationships with both powers requires careful diplomacy, even as tariff threats boost support for Canadian energy projects domestically. However, Canada's emergence as a potential partner offers the Philippines a much-needed counterweight and a path towards regional stability and economic prosperity.

By working together, Canada and the Philippines can promote peaceful solutions, strengthen regional cooperation, and ensure that the Indo-Pacific remains a place of opportunity for all nations, not just superpowers.

 

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Electric Ferries Power Up B.C. with CIB Help

BC Ferries Electrification accelerates zero-emission vessels, Canada Infrastructure Bank financing, and fast charging infrastructure to cut greenhouse gas emissions, lower operating costs, and reduce noise across British Columbia's Island-class routes.

 

Key Points

BC Ferries Electrification is the plan to deploy zero-emission ferries and charging, funded by CIB, to reduce emissions.

✅ $75M CIB loan funds four electric ferries and chargers

✅ Cuts 9,000 tonnes CO2e annually on short Island-class routes

✅ Quieter service, lower operating costs, and redeployed hybrids

 

British Columbia is taking a significant step towards a cleaner transportation future with the electrification of its ferry fleet. BC Ferries, the province's ferry operator, has secured a $75 million loan from the Canada Infrastructure Bank (CIB) to fund the purchase of four zero-emission ferries and the necessary charging infrastructure to support them.

This marks a turning point for BC Ferries, which currently operates a fleet reliant on diesel fuel. The new Island-class electric ferries will be deployed on shorter routes, replacing existing hybrid ships on those routes. These hybrid ferries will then be redeployed on routes that haven't yet been converted to electric, maximizing their lifespan and efficiency.

Environmental Benefits

The transition to electric ferries is expected to deliver significant environmental benefits. The new vessels are projected to eliminate an estimated 9,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions annually, and electric ships on the B.C. coast already demonstrate similar gains, contributing to British Columbia's ambitious climate goals. Additionally, the quieter operation of electric ferries will create a more pleasant experience for passengers and reduce noise pollution for nearby communities.

Economic Considerations

The CIB loan plays a crucial role in making this project financially viable. The low-interest rate offered by the CIB will help to keep ferry fares more affordable for passengers. Additionally, the long-term operational costs of electric ferries are expected to be lower than those of diesel-powered vessels, providing economic benefits in the long run.

Challenges and Opportunities

While the electrification of BC Ferries is a positive development, there are some challenges to consider. The upfront costs of electric ferries and charging infrastructure are typically higher than those of traditional options, though projects such as the Kootenay Lake ferry show growing readiness. However, advancements in battery technology are constantly lowering costs, making electric ferries a more cost-effective choice over time.

Moreover, the transition presents opportunities for job creation in the clean energy sector, with complementary initiatives like the hydrogen project broadening demand. The development, construction, and maintenance of electric ferries and charging infrastructure will require skilled workers, potentially creating a new avenue for economic growth in British Columbia.

A Pioneering Example

BC Ferries' electrification initiative sets a strong precedent for other ferry operators worldwide, including Washington State Ferries pursuing hybrid-electric upgrades. This project demonstrates the feasibility and economic viability of transitioning to cleaner marine transportation solutions. As battery technology and charging infrastructure continue to develop, we can expect to see more widespread adoption of electric ferries across the globe.

The collaboration between BC Ferries and the CIB paves the way for a greener future for BC's transportation sector, where efforts like Harbour Air's electric aircraft complement marine electrification. With cleaner air, quieter operation, and a positive impact on climate change, this project is a win for the environment, the economy, and British Columbia as a whole.

 

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