B.C. Hydro predicts 'bottleneck' as electric-vehicle demand ramps-up

U.S. 2023 Utility-Scale Capacity Additions highlight surging solar power, expanding battery storage, wind projects, natural gas plants, and new nuclear reactors, boosting grid reliability in Texas and California with record planned installations.

Key Points

Planned grid expansions led by solar and battery storage, with wind, natural gas, and nuclear increasing U.S. capacity.

✅ 29.1 GW solar planned; Texas and California lead installations.

✅ 9.4 GW battery storage to more than double current capacity.

✅ Natural gas, wind, and 2.2 GW nuclear round out additions.

Developers plan to add 54.5 gigawatts (GW) of new utility-scale electric-generating capacity to the U.S. power grid in 2023, according to our Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory. More than half of this capacity will be solar power (54%), even as coal generation increase has been reported, followed by battery storage (17%).

Solar

U.S. utility-scale solar capacity has been rising rapidly EIA summer outlook since 2010. Despite its upward trend over the past decade 2018 milestone, additions of utility-scale solar capacity declined by 23% in 2022 compared with 2021. This drop in solar capacity additions was the result of supply chain disruptions and other pandemic-related challenges. We expect that some of those delayed 2022 projects will begin operating in 2023, when developers plan to install 29.1 GW of solar power in the United States. If all of this capacity comes online as planned, 2023 will have the most new utility-scale solar capacity added in a single year, more than doubling the current record (13.4 GW in 2021).

In 2023, the most new solar capacity, by far, will be in Texas (7.7 GW) and California (4.2 GW), together accounting for 41% of planned new solar capacity.

Battery storage

U.S. battery storage capacity has grown rapidly January generation jump over the past couple of years. In 2023, U.S. battery capacity will likely more than double. Developers have reported plans to add 9.4 GW of battery storage to the existing 8.8 GW of battery storage capacity.

Battery storage systems are increasingly installed with wind and solar power projects. Wind and solar are intermittent sources of generation; they only produce electricity when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining. Batteries can store excess electricity from wind and solar generators for later use. In 2023, we expect 71% of the new battery storage capacity will be in California and Texas, states with significant solar and wind capacity.

Natural gas

Developers plan to build 7.5 GW of new natural-gas fired capacity record natural gas output in 2023, 83% of which is from combined-cycle plants. The two largest natural gas plants expected to come online in 2023 are the 1,836 megawatt (MW) Guernsey Power Station in Ohio and the 1,214 MW CPV Three Rivers Energy Center in Illinois.

Wind

In 2023, developers plan to add 6.0 GW of utility-scale wind capacity, as renewables poised to eclipse coal in global power generation. Annual U.S. wind capacity additions have begun to slow, following record additions of more than 14 GW in both 2020 and 2021.

The most wind capacity will be added in Texas in 2023, at 2.0 GW. The only offshore wind capacity expected to come online this year is a 130.0 MW offshore windfarm in New York called South Fork Wind.

Nuclear

Two new nuclear reactors at the Vogtle nuclear power plant in Georgia nuclear and net-zero are scheduled to come online in 2023, several years later than originally planned. The reactors, with a combined 2.2 GW of capacity, are the first new nuclear units built in the United States in more than 30 years.

Developers and power plant owners report planned additions to us in our annual and monthly electric generator surveys. In the annual survey, we ask respondents to provide planned online dates for generators coming online in the next five years. The monthly survey tracks the status of generators coming online based on reported in-service dates.

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California EV Sales 2023 show rising BEV market share, strong Tesla Model Y and Model 3 demand, hybrid growth, and ICE decline, per CNCDA Q3 data, underscoring California auto trends and ZEV policy momentum.

Key Points

BEVs hit 21.5% YTD in 2023 (22.3% in Q3); 35.4% with hybrids, as ICE share fell and Tesla led the California market.

✅ BEVs 21.5% YTD; 22.3% in Q3 per CNCDA data

✅ Tesla Model Y, Model 3 dominate; 62.9% BEV share

✅ ICE share down to 64.6%; hybrids lift to 35.4% YTD

The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) reported on November 1, 2023, that sales of battery electric cars accounted for 21.5% of new car sales in the Golden State during the first 9 months of the year and 22.3% in the third quarter. At the end of Q3 in 2022, sales of electric cars stood at 16.4%. In 2021, that number was 9.1%. So, despite all the weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth lately about green new car wreck warnings in some coverage, the news is pretty good, at least in California.

When hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are included in the calculations, the figure jumps up 35.4% for all vehicles sold year to date in California. Not surprisingly this means EVs still trail gas cars in the state, with the CNCDA reporting ICE market share (including gasoline and diesel vehicles) was 64.6% so far this year, down from 71.6% in 2022 and 88.4% in 2018.

California is known as the vanguard for automotive trends in the country, with shifts in preferences and government policy eventually spreading to the rest of the country. While the state’s share of electric cars exceeds one fifth of all vehicles sold year to date, the figure for the US as a whole stands at 7.4%, with EV sales momentum into 2024 continuing nationwide. California has banned the sale of gas-powered vehicles starting in 2035, and its push toward electrification will require a much bigger grid to support charging, although the steady increase in the sale of electric cars suggests that ban may never need to be implemented as people embrace the EV revolution.

Not surprisingly, when digging deeper into the sales data, the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 dominate sales in the state’s electric car market this year, at 103,398 and 66,698 respectively. Tesla’s overall market share of battery electric car sales is at 62.9%. In fact, the Tesla Model Y is the top selling vehicle overall in California, followed by the Model 3, the Toyota RAV4 (40,622), and the Toyota Camry (39,293).

While that is good news for Tesla, its overall market share has slipped from 71.8% year to date last year at this time. Competing models from brands like Chevrolet, BMW, Mercedes, Hyundai, Volkswagen, and Kia have been slowly eating into Tesla’s market share. Overall, in California, Toyota is the sales king with 15% of sales, even as the state leads in EV charging deployment statewide, followed by Tesla at 13.5%. In the second quarter, Tesla narrowly edged out Toyota for top sales in the state before sales swung back in Toyota’s favor in the third quarter.

That being said, Tesla’s sales in the state climbed by 38.5% year to date, while Toyota’s actually shrank by 0.7%. Time will tell if Tesla’s popularity with the state’s car buyers improves and it can overtake Toyota for the 2023 crown, even as U.S. EV market share dipped in early 2024, or if other EV makers can offer better products at better prices and lure California customers who want to purchase electric cars away from the Tesla brand. Certainly, no company can expect to have two thirds of the market to itself forever.

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Newfoundland EV Fast-Charging Network enables DC fast charging along the Trans-Canada Highway, from Port aux Basques to St. John's, with Level 3 stations, reducing range anxiety and accelerating electric vehicle adoption.

Key Points

A DC fast charging corridor with Level 3 stations every 70 km, enabling EV road trips and easing range anxiety.

✅ 14 Level 3 DC fast chargers across the Trans-Canada Highway

✅ Charges most EVs to 80% in under an hour, $15/hr prorated

✅ Expansion planned into Labrador with 19 additional fast chargers

The first electric vehicle fast-charging network is now up and running across Newfoundland, which the province's main energy provider hopes will make road trips easier for electric car owners and encourage more drivers to go electric in the future.

With the last of the 14 charging stations coming online in Corner Brook earlier this month, drivers now have a place to charge up about every 70 kilometres along the Trans-Canada Highway, where 10 new fast-charging stations in N.B. are being planned, from Port aux Basques to St. John's, along with one in Gros Morne National Park.

Jennifer Williams, president & CEO of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, says many potential electric vehicle owners have been hesitant to give up on gasoline without fast chargers available across the island.

"The majority of people who were interested in EVs said one of the major barriers to them was indeed not having a fast-charging network that they could access," she said.

"We really believe that this is going to help people cross over and become an EV owner."

The charging network was first announced in October 2019, with an eye to having all 14 chargers up and running by the end of 2020. When work began, Newfoundland and Labrador was the only province in Canada without any publicly available Level 3 chargers, even as NB Power's public charging network was expanding elsewhere.

After some COVID-19 pandemic-related delays, the stations are now up and running and can charge most EVs to 80 per cent in less than an hour at a prorated cost of $15 an hour

"The pandemic did have some effect, but we're there now and we're really happy and this is just the beginning," said Williams.

Public charging becoming 'a non-issue'
That's encouraging for Jon Seary, an electric car owner and a co-founder of advocacy group Drive Electric N.L. He says the lack of fast chargers has been the "deal breaker" for many people looking to buy electric vehicles.

"Now you can drive right across the province. You can choose to stop at any of these to top up," Seary said.

Joe Butler, who is also a co-founder of the group, says the fast chargers have already made trips easier as they've come online across the island.

"In the past, it was a major impediment, really, to get anywhere, but now it's changed dramatically," said Butler.

"I just came back from Gros Morne and I had two stops and I was home, so the convenience factor if you just travel occasionally outside of town makes all the difference."

Jon Seary and Joe Butler stand with a slower level-two charging station on Kenmount Road in St. John's. 'We are at the cusp now of seeing a huge upswing in electric vehicle adoption,' Seary said. (Gavin Simms/CBC)
Seary said according to numbers from provincial motor vehicle registration, there were 195 electric cars on the road at the end of 2020, but he estimates that there are now closer to 300 vehicles in use in the province — with the potential for many more.

"We are at the cusp now of seeing a huge upswing in electric vehicle adoption," he said, even though Atlantic Canadians have been less inclined to buy EVs so far. 

"The cost of the cars is coming way down, and has come down. More places are selling them and the availability of public charging is becoming a non-issue as we put more and more charging stations out there."

The future is electric but the province's infrastructure is lagging behind, says non-profit
But Seary said there is still more work to be done to improve the province's charging infrastructure to catch up with other parts of the country. 

"We are lagging the rest of the country," Seary said, even as the N.W.T. encourages more residents to drive EVs through new initiatives.

"We have opportunities for federal funding for our charging infrastructure and it needs to be moving now. We have the surplus from Muskrat Falls to use and we have a climate that's not going to wait … this is the time to get going with this now."

Williams said together with Newfoundland Power, N.L. Hydro is now working on 19 more fast chargers to be placed elsewhere in the province and into Labrador, where the N.L. government has promoted EV adoption but infrastructure has lagged in some areas.

"We've heard very loudly and very clearly from the folks in Labrador, as well as other parts of the province, that they want to have charging stations in their neck of the woods too," she said.

"Putting them in Labrador, we believe that we'll help people get over that concern and that fear. There are EV owners in Labrador … so we believe it can work there as well."

With more chargers and electric vehicles comes less reliance on burning fossil fuels, and utilities like Nova Scotia Power are piloting vehicle-to-grid integration to amplify benefits, and Williams said 21 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions have already been offset with the chargers as they've come online over the past few months.

"It actually does equate to as if you had powered a whole house all year, but the important part to remember [is that] these are an enabler. Putting these in place is enabling people to purchase electric vehicles," she said.

"You do 90 per cent of your charging at home, so if we're seeing about 20 tonnes has been offset in the short period of time they've been in service, for the vehicles that are charging at home, imagine how much they're actually offsetting. We figure it's well in excess of 200 tons."

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New Mexico Energy Transition Act advances renewable energy, battery storage, energy efficiency, and demand response to boost grid reliability during climate change-fueled heatwaves, reducing emissions while supporting solar and wind deployment.

Key Points

A state policy phasing out power emissions, scaling renewables and storage, bolstering grid reliability in extreme heat.

✅ Replaces coal generation with solar plus battery storage

✅ Enhances grid reliability during climate-driven heatwaves

✅ Promotes energy efficiency and demand response programs

While temperatures hit record highs across much of the West in recent weeks and California was forced to curb electricity service amid heat-driven grid strain that week, the power stayed on in New Mexico thanks to proactive energy efficiency and conservation measures.

Public Service Company of New Mexico on Aug. 19 did ask customers to cut back on power use during the peak demand time until 9 p.m., to offset energy supply issues due to the record-breaking heatwave that was one of the most severe to hit the West since 2006. But the Albuquerque Journal's Aug. 28 editorial, "PRC should see the light with record heat and blackouts," confuses the problem with the solution. Record temperatures fueled by climate change – not renewable energy – were to blame for the power challenges last month. And thanks to the Energy Transition Act, New Mexico is reducing climate change-causing pollution and better positioned to prevent the worst impacts of global warming.

During those August days, more than 80 million U.S. residents were under excessive heat warnings. As the Journal's editorial pointed out, California experienced blackouts on Aug. 14 and 15 as wildfires swept across the state and temperatures rose. In fact, a recent report by the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab found the world has experienced record heat this summer due to climate change, and heat-related deaths will continue to rise in the future.

As the recent California energy incidents show, climate change is a threat to a reliable electricity system and our health as soaring temperatures and heatwaves strain our grid, as seen in Texas grid challenges this year as well. Demand for electricity rises as people depend more on energy-intensive air conditioning. High temperatures also can decrease transmission line efficiency and cause power plant operators to scale back or even temporarily stop electricity generation.

Lobbyists for the fossil fuel industry may claim that the service interruptions and the conservation requests in New Mexico demonstrate the need for keeping fossil-fueled power generation for electricity reliability, echoing policy blame narratives in California that fault climate policies. But fossil fuel combustion still is subject to the factors that cause blackouts – while also driving climate change and making resulting heatwaves more common. After an investigation, California's own energy agencies found no substance to the claim that renewable energy use was a factor in the situation there, and it's not to blame in New Mexico, either.

New Mexico's Energy Transition Act is a bold, necessary step to limit the damage caused by climate change in the future. It creates a reasonable, cost-saving path to eliminating greenhouse gas emissions associated with generating electricity.

The New Mexico Public Regulation Commission properly applied this law when it recently voted unanimously to replace PNM's coal-fired generation at San Juan Generating Station with carbon-free solar energy and battery storage located in the Four Corners communities, a prudent step given California's looming electricity shortage warnings across the West. The development will create jobs and provide resources for the local school district and help ensure a stronger economy and a healthier future for the region.

As we expand solar and wind energy here in New Mexico, we can help ensure reliable electricity service by building out greater battery storage for renewable energy resources. Expanding regional energy markets that can dispatch the lowest-cost energy from across the region to places where it is needed most would make renewable energy more available and reduce costs, despite concerns over policy exports raised by some observers.

Energy efficiency and demand response are important when we are facing extraordinary conditions, and proven strategies to improve electricity reliability show how demand-side tools complement the grid, so it is unfortunate that the Albuquerque Journal made the unsubstantiated claim that a stray cloud will put out the lights. It was hot, supplies were tight on the electric grid, and in those moments, we should conserve. We should not use those moments to turn our back on progress.

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Texas Battery Storage Investment Boom draws BlackRock, SK, and UBS, leveraging ERCOT price volatility, renewable energy growth, and utility-scale energy storage arbitrage to enhance grid reliability, resilience, and double-digit returns across high-demand nodes.

Key Points

Texas sees a rush into battery storage, using ERCOT price spreads to bolster grid reliability and earn about 20% returns.

✅ Investors exploit price volatility, peak-demand spreads.

✅ Utility-scale storage enhances ERCOT reliability.

✅ Top players: BlackRock, SK E&S, UBS; 700 MW deals.

BlackRock, Korea's SK, Switzerland's UBS and other companies are chasing an investment boom in battery storage plants in Texas, lured by the prospect of earning double-digit returns from the power grid problems plaguing the state, according to project owners, developers and suppliers.

Projects coming online are generating returns of around 20%, compared with single digit returns for solar and wind projects, according to Rhett Bennett, CEO of Black Mountain Energy Storage, one of the top developers in the state.

"Resolving grid issues with utility-scale energy storage is probably the hottest thing out there,” he said.

The rapid expansion of battery storage could help, through efforts like a virtual power plant initiative in Texas, prevent a repeat of the February 2021 ice storm and grid collapse which killed 246 people and left millions of Texans without power for days.

The battery rush also puts the Republican-controlled state at the forefront of President Joe Biden's push to expand renewable energy use.

Power prices in Texas can swing from highs of about $90 per megawatt hour (MWh) on a normal summer day to nearly $3,000 per MWh when demand surges on a day with less wind power, a dynamic tied to wind curtailment on the Texas grid according to a simulation by the federal government's U.S. Energy Information Administration.

That volatility, a product of demand and higher reliance on intermittent wind and solar energy, has fueled a rush to install battery plants, aided by falling battery costs, that store electricity when it is cheap and abundant and sell when supplies tighten and prices soar.

Texas last year accounted for 31% of new U.S. grid-scale energy storage, with much of it pairing storage with solar, according to energy research firm Wood Mackenzie, second only to California which has had a state mandate for battery development for a decade.

And Texas is expected to account for nearly a quarter of the U.S. grid-scale storage market over the next five years, a trajectory consistent with record U.S. solar-plus-storage growth noted by analysts, according to Wood Mackenzie projections shared with Reuters.

Developers and energy traders said locations offering the highest returns -- in strapped areas of the grid -- will become increasingly scarce as more storage comes online and, as diversifying resources for better projects suggests, electricity prices stabilize.

Texas lawmakers this week voted to provide new subsidies for natural gas power plants in a bid to shore up reliability. But the legislation also contains provisions that industry groups said could encourage investment in battery storage by supporting 'unlayering' peak demand approaches.

Amid the battery rush, BlackRock acquired developer Jupiter Power from private equity firm EnCap Investments late last year. Korea's SK E&S acquired Key Capture Energy from Vision Ridge Partners in 2021 and UBS bought five Texas projects from Black Mountain last year for a combined 700 megawatts (MW) of energy storage. None of the sales' prices were disclosed.

SK E&S said its acquisition of Key Capture was part of a strategy to invest in U.S. grid resiliency.

"SK E&S views energy storage solutions in Texas and across the U.S. as a core technology that supports a new energy infrastructure system to ensure American homes and businesses have affordable power," the company said in a statement.

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U.S. Renewable Energy Share 2022 leads electricity generation trends, as wind and solar outpace nuclear and coal, per EIA data, with hydropower gains and grid growth highlighting rapid, sustainable capacity expansion nationwide.

Key Points

Renewables supplied over 25% of U.S. electricity in 2022, as wind and solar outpaced nuclear with double-digit growth.

✅ Renewables provided 25.52% of U.S. power Jan-Apr 2022.

✅ Wind and solar beat nuclear by 17.96% in April.

✅ Solar up 28.93%, wind up 24.25%; hydropower up 9.99%.

During the first four months of 2022, electrical generation by renewable energy sources accounted for over 25% of the nation’s electricity, projected to soon be about one-fourth as growth continues. In April alone, renewables hit a record April share of 29.3% — an all-time high.

And for the first time ever, the combination of just wind power and solar produce more electricity in April than the nation’s nuclear power plants — 17.96% more.

This is according to a SUN DAY Campaign analysis of data in EIA’s Electric Power Monthly report. The report also reveals that during the first third of this year, solar (including residential) generation climbed by 28.93%, while wind increased by 24.25%. Combined, solar and wind grew by 25.46% and accounted for more than one-sixth (16.67%) of U.S. electrical generation (wind: 12.24%, solar: 4.43%).

Hydropower also increased by 9.99% during the first four months of 2022. However, wind alone provided 70.89% more electricity than did hydropower. Together with contributions from geothermal and biomass, the mix of renewable energy sources expanded by 18.49%, and building on its second-most U.S. source in 2020 status helped underscore momentum as it provided about 25.5% of U.S. electricity during the first four months of 2022.

For the first third of the year, renewables surpassed coal and nuclear power by 26.13% and 37.80% respectively. In fact, electrical generation by coal declined by 3.94% compared to the same period in 2021 while nuclear dropped by 1.80%.

“Notwithstanding headwinds such as the COVID pandemic, grid access problems, and disruptions in global supply chains, solar and wind remain on a roll,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong. “Moreover, by surpassing nuclear power by ever greater margins, they illustrate the foolishness of trying to revive the soon-to-retire Diablo Canyon nuclear plant in California and the just-retired Palisades reactor in Michigan rather than focusing on accelerating renewables’ growth.”

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