Chernobyl disaster persists today

By Reuters


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Any Ukrainian over 35 can tell you where they were when they heard about the accident at the Chernobyl plant.

"I remember calling my husband. There had been rumors for days about a nuclear accident. We had even hung blankets on the windows to stop radiation because we didn't know what to do," said Natalya, a 46-year-old financial analyst in Kiev, whose husband was a journalist on a daily newspaper.

"He told me there had been a fire at the atomic plant in Chernobyl. That was for me the first confirmation that the reactor had collapsed," she said, seated at her desk in her central Kiev office.

"We had no idea what to expect. It was awful."

As Japan battles to prevent a meltdown at its earthquake-hit Fukushima Daini nuclear plant, the people of Ukraine are preparing to mark the 25th anniversary of the world's worst nuclear accident.

The physical and financial legacies of that disaster are obvious: a 30-km uninhabited ring around the Chernobyl plant, billions of dollars spent cleaning the region and a major new effort to drum up 600 million euros $840 million in fresh funds that Kiev says is needed to build a more durable casement over the stricken reactor.

Just as powerful are the scars that are less easily seen: fear and an abiding suspicion that despite the reassuring reports by authorities and scientific bodies people may still be dying from radiation after-effects.

While debate about the health impact continues, there is little doubt people in Ukraine and neighboring Belarus carry a psychological burden. Repeated studies have found that "exposed populations had anxiety levels that were twice as high" as people unaffected by the accident, according to a 2006 United Nations report. Those exposed to radiation were also "3-4 times more likely to report multiple unexplained physical symptoms and subjective poor health than were unaffected control groups."

There are, of course, crucial differences between Chernobyl and the disaster unfolding in Japan.

The Chernobyl accident was the product of human error when a test was poorly executed, while the Japanese failure was triggered by an earthquake and tsunami.

Chernobyl occurred in a secretive Soviet society which reformer Mikhail Gorbachev was only just opening up. The authorities embarked on an attempted cover-up and only partly admitted the truth three days later, denying themselves the chance of rapid international aid.

Despite criticisms that Tokyo could be a lot more transparent, Japan's disaster has taken place in a relatively open society and international help has been quick to come.

Most importantly, thick containment walls at the Fukushima Daini plant shield the reactor cores so that even if there was a meltdown of the nuclear fuel it's unlikely to lead to a major escape of dangerous radioactive clouds into the atmosphere.

At Chernobyl, there was no containment structure.

"When it blew, it blew everything straight out into the atmosphere," said Murray Jennex of San Diego State University.

Despite those differences, though, the Chernobyl experience still contains lessons for Japan and other countries, says Volodymyr Holosha, the top Ukrainian Emergency Ministry official in charge of the area surrounding the Chernobyl plant.

"We were not ready for it — neither technologically nor financially," Holosha told reporters in Kiev last month. "This is a priceless experience for other countries."

In the early hours of April 26, 1986, in the model Soviet town of Prypyat, a satellite of the much bigger Chernobyl, workers at a nuclear power plant demobilized the safety systems on the number four reactor, which had come on line only three years previously.

It was a risky experiment to see whether the cooling system could still function using power generated from the reactor alone in the event of a failure in the auxiliary electricity supply.

It could not. There was a massive power surge that blew off the reactor's heavy concrete and metal lid and sent smoldering nuclear material into the atmosphere. Dozens of plant staff died on the spot or immediately afterwards in hospital. Hundreds of thousands of rescue workers, including Soviet Army conscripts, were rushed to the site to put out the fires, decontaminate it and seal off the damaged reactor by building a concrete shell around it.

At first, authorities denied there was a problem. When they finally admitted the truth more than a day later, many thousands of inhabitants simply picked up a few of their belongings and headed off -- many of them to the capital Kiev 80 km 50 miles to the south, never to return. Iryna Lobanova, 44, a civil servant, was due to get married in Prypyat on the day of the explosion but assumed all ceremonies would be canceled.

"I thought that war had started," she told Reuters.

"But the local authorities told us go on with all planned ceremonies." Nobody was allowed to leave the town until the official evacuation was announced on the Sunday — 36 hours later — "following an order from Moscow," she said.

Lobanova went ahead with her wedding — and left the next day with her husband by train.

The make-shift concrete shelter hastily thrown up in the months after the explosion is often referred to as a "sarcophagus", a funeral term made even more fitting by the fact that it houses the body of at least one plant worker who rescuers were unable to recover.

The official short-term death toll from the accident was 31 but many more people died of radiation-related sicknesses such as cancer. The total death toll and long-term health effects remain a subject of intense debate even 25 years after the disaster.

"The disaster brought suffering on millions of people," said the Emergency Ministry's Holosha.

"About 600,000 people were involved in mitigating the consequences of the accident. About 300,000 of them were Ukrainians. Out of those, 100,000 are disabled now."

A 2008 United Nations study cited a "dramatic increase in thyroid cancer incidence" in the Ukraine and just across the border in Belarus. Children seemed to be especially vulnerable because they drank milk with high levels of radioactive iodine.

"One arrives at between 12,000 and 83,000 children born with congenital deformations in the region of Chernobyl, and around 30,000 to 207,000 genetically damaged children worldwide," German physicians' organization IPPNW said in a report in 2006.

Those figures are far lower than health officials had predicted. Indeed, the UN says that overall health effects were less severe than initially expected and that only a few thousand people had died as a result of the accident.

But a 2009 book by a group of Russian and Belarussian scientists published by the New York Academy of Sciences argued that previous studies were misled by rigged Soviet statistics.

"The official position of the Chernobyl Forum a group of UN agencies is that about 9,000 related deaths have occurred and some 200,000 people have illnesses caused by the catastrophe," authors Alexei Yablokov, Vasily Nesterenko and Alexei Nesterenko wrote in "Chernobyl: Consequences of the catastrophe for people and the Environment".

"A more accurate number estimates nearly 400 million human beings have been exposed to Chernobyl's radioactive fallout and, for many generations, they and their descendants will suffer the devastating consequences."

The authors argued that the global death toll by 2004 was closer to 1 million and said health effects included birth defects, pregnancy losses, accelerated aging, brain damage, heart, endocrine, kidney, gastrointestinal and lung diseases.

"It is clear that tens of millions of people, not only in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia, but worldwide, will live under measurable chronic radioactive contamination for many decades," they wrote.

The most severe contamination occurred within the so-called Exclusion Zone, a circular area around the power plant with a radius of 30 kilometers 19 miles that has been deemed unsuitable for living and is closed to unsanctioned visitors.

Several villages and a whole pine forest in the zone were bulldozed and buried shortly after the disaster. Other small settlements are overgrown with trees and bushes that have made the red and white brick houses barely visible.

Prypyat, built to house Chernobyl power plant workers and their families and with a bright future ahead of it as a model Soviet 'atomgrad' town, had a pre-disaster population of about 50,000.

Now it is a ghost town that greets its rare visitors with eerie silence.

A shop building in the center is full of rubble and broken furniture — remnants of years of looting which the government could not prevent and which spread hazardous substances across the country.

A portrait of Soviet state founder Vladimir Lenin lies on the floor, covered by a thick layer of dust.

At a children's amusement park, a Ferris wheel due to be launched less than a week after the disaster is rusting away.

Prypyat's residents, mostly young families, were evacuated in a six-hour operation, which began more than 36 hours after the accident.

In the days that followed, as the fallout was driven by a southeast wind across neighboring Belarus, the Soviet government evacuated thousands of people from other areas under threat.

"We were evacuated on May 4," said Makar Krasovsky, 73, who lived in the Belarussian village of Pogonnoye 27 km 17 miles from the plant. "Children had been evacuated earlier, on May 1. Nobody knew anything. Nobody told us anything."

"We were told to take with us clothes for the next three days but nothing else because everything was contaminated. They promised us the reactor would be shut down and we would return in three days," he said by telephone from the town of Khoyniki.

Pogonnoye is still sealed off and visits are only allowed once a year — on a day when local Orthodox Christians attend the graves of their ancestors.

The accident prompted former Socialist bloc nations to shut down reactors of the same design. But the Chernobyl plant itself kept running until 2000 when Ukraine agreed to shut it down after Kiev was promised European aid.

The European Commission and international donors have since committed about 2 billion euros to projects aimed at cleaning up the area and securing the plant. Another 740 million euros remains to be raised: 600 million for the new casement and 140 million waste storage facilities.

Holosha says Ukraine itself has spent much more.

"Since Ukraine gained independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union, $12 billion has been spent on dealing with the consequences of the accident," he said. "Most of the expenditures were linked to maintaining the exclusion zone and providing healthcare and social assistance to those who had lived in the affected area."

The key new project at the plant is the construction of the so-called New Safe Confinement — a massive convex structure that will be assembled away from the damaged reactor and then slid into place over the existing sarcophagus. The original concrete tomb was built hastily, is supported in part by the damaged walls of the reactor building, and has already had to be reinforced.

The new structure is designed to last 100 years and should allow the reactor to be dismantled without the risk of new contamination.

The project requires 600 million euros US $840 million in additional financing and is likely to miss the 2012 completion target by a few years due to problems such as radioactive debris encountered during excavation works.

Ukraine hopes to raise most of the funds at an international donors conference set to take place in Kiev next month on the eve of the 25th anniversary of the grim event.

Officials say Ukraine is likely to spend billions of euros on confinement upkeep costs before it finds a way to bury the reactor components, perhaps under layers of underground granite rocks. Even then the area around the plant will remain unsuitable for thousands of years. Asked how long before people can settle down and grow crops at the site, Chernobyl power plant director Ihor Gramotkin said: "At least 20,000 years."

Yury Andreyev, shift chief at the plant's number two reactor on the night of the explosions and now head of a non-government body representing the interests of those who fought to control the disaster, sees no danger of the Japan drama taking on the seriousness of Chernobyl.

"The scale of the destruction in Japan, both nuclear and radiation, is 10,000 times lower that what happened to us in Chernobyl. About 30 tonnes of nuclear fuel were discharged at Chernobyl. Here in Japan there was not the same discharge," he told journalists.

Despite the scale of the Chernobyl disaster, both Ukraine and Belarus still rely heavily on nuclear energy, having no developed hydrocarbon resources. In the coming months, both plan to borrow billion of dollars from Russia to finance the construction of new reactors of Russian design.

But that doesn't mean people have forgotten. Locals in Kiev, 80 km 50 miles from Chernobyl, will still tell you that they heard no birdsong in the Spring of 1986 and that the leaves of the elegant chestnut trees that line the capital's boulevards turned yellow a month early.

The disaster and the government's handling of it highlighted the shortcomings of the Soviet system with its unaccountable bureaucrats and entrenched culture of secrecy. Journalists subsequently uncovered evidence that the children of Communist apparatchiks had been evacuated well before others and some staff died at the plant because they had not been given orders to leave.

Mikhail Gorbachev has since said he considered the disaster one of the main nails in the coffin of the Soviet Union which eventually collapsed in 1991. The nuclear disaster in Japan is unlikely to break the country's political system. But Tokyo should not underestimate the profound power of a nuclear meltdown — physical and political.

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Key Points

Linking AI data centers to Canada's grid with renewables, storage, and efficiency to ensure reliable, sustainable power.

✅ Diversify supply with wind, solar, hydro, and firm low-carbon resources

✅ Deploy grid-scale batteries to balance peaks and enhance reliability

✅ Upgrade transmission, distribution, and adopt liquid cooling efficiency

 

Artificial intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing various sectors, driving demand for data centers that support AI applications. In Canada, this surge in data center development presents both economic opportunities and challenges for the electricity grid, where utilities using AI to adapt to evolving demand dynamics. Integrating AI-focused data centers into Canada's electricity infrastructure requires strategic planning to balance economic growth with sustainable energy practices.​

Economic and Technological Incentives

Canada has been at the forefront of AI research for over three decades, establishing itself as a global leader in the field. The federal government has invested significantly in AI initiatives, with over $2 billion allocated in 2024 to maintain Canada's competitive edge and to align with a net-zero grid by 2050 target nationwide. Provincial governments are also actively courting data center investments, recognizing the economic and technological benefits these facilities bring. Data centers not only create jobs and stimulate local economies but also enhance technological infrastructure, supporting advancements in AI and related fields.​

Challenges to the Electricity Grid

However, the energy demands of AI data centers pose significant challenges to Canada's electricity grid, mirroring the power challenge for utilities seen in the U.S., as demand rises. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has raised concerns about the growing electricity consumption driven by AI, noting that the current power generation capacity may struggle to meet this increasing demand, while grids are increasingly exposed to harsh weather conditions that threaten reliability as well. This situation could lead to reliability issues, including potential blackouts during peak demand periods, jeopardizing both economic activities and the progress of AI initiatives.​

Strategic Integration Approaches

To effectively integrate AI data centers into Canada's electricity grids, a multifaceted approach is essential:

  1. Diversifying Energy Sources: Relying solely on traditional energy sources may not suffice to meet the heightened demands of AI data centers. Incorporating renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, and hydroelectric power, can provide sustainable alternatives. For instance, Alberta has emerged as a proactive player in supporting AI-enabled data centers, with the TransAlta data centre agreement expected to advance this momentum, leveraging its renewable energy potential to attract such investments.
     

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  3. Enhancing Grid Infrastructure: Upgrading transmission and distribution networks is crucial to handle the increased load from AI data centers. Strategic investments in grid infrastructure can prevent bottlenecks and ensure efficient energy delivery, including exploration of macrogrids in Canada to improve regional transfers, supporting both existing and new data center operations.​
     

  4. Adopting Energy-Efficient Data Center Designs: Designing data centers with energy efficiency in mind can significantly reduce their power consumption. Innovations such as liquid cooling systems are being explored to manage the heat generated by high-density AI workloads, offering more efficient alternatives to traditional air cooling methods.

  5. Establishing Collaborative Policies: Collaboration among government entities, utility providers, and data center operators is vital to align energy policies with technological advancements. Developing regulatory frameworks that incentivize sustainable practices can guide the growth of AI data centers in harmony with grid capabilities.​
     

Integrating AI data centers into Canada's electricity grids presents both significant opportunities and challenges. By adopting a comprehensive strategy that includes diversifying energy sources, implementing advanced energy storage, enhancing grid infrastructure, promoting energy-efficient designs, and fostering collaborative policies, Canada can harness the benefits of AI while ensuring a reliable and sustainable energy future. This balanced approach will position Canada as a leader in both AI innovation and sustainable energy practices.

 

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Key Points

Episodic power cuts during extreme heat to balance grid load, protect infrastructure, and manage peak demand.

✅ Causes: peak demand, heatwaves, aging grid, AC load spikes.

✅ Impacts: vulnerable households, health risks, economic losses.

✅ Solutions: load shedding, cooling centers, efficiency, renewables.

 

As temperatures soar across various regions, millions of households are facing the threat of U.S. blackouts due to strain on power grids and heightened demand for cooling during summer heatwaves. This article delves into the causes behind these potential shut-offs, the impact on affected communities, and strategies to mitigate such risks in the future.

Summer Heatwave Challenges

Summer heatwaves bring not only discomfort but also significant challenges to electrical grids, particularly in densely populated urban areas where air conditioning units and cooling systems, along with the data center demand boom, strain the capacity of infrastructure designed to meet peak demand. As temperatures rise, the demand for electricity peaks, pushing power grids to their limits and increasing the likelihood of disruptions.

Vulnerable Populations

The risk of electricity shut-offs disproportionately affects vulnerable populations, including low-income households, seniors, and individuals with medical conditions that require continuous access to electricity for cooling or medical devices. These groups are particularly susceptible to heat-related illnesses and discomfort when faced with more frequent outages during extreme heat events.

Utility Response and Management

Utility companies play a critical role in managing electricity demand and mitigating the risk of shut-offs during summer heatwaves. Strategies such as load shedding, where electricity is temporarily reduced in specific areas to balance supply and demand, and deploying AI for demand forecasting are often employed to prevent widespread outages. Additionally, utilities communicate with customers to provide updates on potential shut-offs and offer advice on energy conservation measures.

Community Resilience

Community resilience efforts are crucial in addressing the challenges posed by summer heatwaves and electricity shut-offs, especially as Canadian grids face harsher weather that heightens outage risks. Local governments, non-profit organizations, and community groups collaborate to establish cooling centers, distribute fans, and provide support services for vulnerable populations during heat emergencies. These initiatives help mitigate the health impacts of extreme heat and ensure that all residents have access to relief from oppressive temperatures.

Long-term Solutions

Investing in resilient infrastructure, enhancing energy efficiency, and promoting renewable energy sources are long-term solutions to reduce the risk of electricity shut-offs during summer heatwaves by addressing grid vulnerabilities that persist. By modernizing electrical grids, integrating smart technologies, and diversifying energy sources, communities can enhance their capacity to withstand extreme weather events and ensure reliable electricity supply year-round.

Public Awareness and Preparedness

Public awareness and preparedness are essential components of mitigating the impact of electricity shut-offs during summer heatwaves. Educating residents about energy conservation practices, encouraging the use of programmable thermostats, and promoting the importance of emergency preparedness plans empower individuals and families to navigate heat emergencies safely and effectively.

Conclusion

As summer heatwaves become more frequent and intense due to climate change impacts on the grid, the risk of electricity shut-offs poses significant challenges to communities across the globe. By implementing proactive measures, enhancing infrastructure resilience, and fostering community collaboration, stakeholders can mitigate the impact of extreme heat events and ensure that all residents have access to safe and reliable electricity during the hottest months of the year.

 

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Key Points

Nine EU states reject overhauling wholesale power pricing, favoring efficiency and prudent policy over redesigns.

✅ Nine states oppose redesign of wholesale power market.

✅ Call for efficiency and 15% interconnection by 2030.

✅ Ministers to debate responses amid gas-driven price spikes.

 

Germany, Denmark, Ireland and six other European countries said on Monday they would not support a reform of the EU electricity market, ahead of an emergency meeting of energy ministers to discuss emergency measures and the recent price spike.

European gas and power prices soared to record high levels in autumn and have remained high, prompting countries including Spain and France to urge Brussels to redesign its electricity market rules.

Nine countries on Monday poured cold water on those proposals, in a joint statement that said they "cannot support any measure that conflicts with the internal gas and electricity market" such as an overhaul of the wholesale power market altogether.

"As the price spikes have global drivers, we should be very careful before interfering in the design of internal energy markets," the statement said.

"This will not be a remedy to mitigate the current rising energy prices linked to fossil fuels markets across Europe."

Austria, Germany, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Latvia and the Netherlands signed the statement, which called instead for more measures to save energy and a target for a 15% interconnection of the EU electricity market by 2030.

European energy ministers meet tomorrow to discuss their response to the price spike, including gas price cap strategies under consideration. Most countries are using tax cuts, subsidies and other national measures to shield consumers against the impact higher gas prices are having on energy bills, but EU governments are struggling to agree on a longer term response.

Spain has led calls for a revamp of the wholesale power market in response to the price spike, amid tensions between France and Germany over reform, arguing that the system is not supporting the EU's green transition.

Under the current system, the wholesale electricity price is set by the last power plant needed to meet overall demand for power. Gas plants often set the price in this system, which Spain said was unfair as it results in cheap renewable energy being sold for the same price as costlier fossil fuel-based power.

The European Commission has said it will investigate whether the EU power market is functioning well, but that there is no evidence to suggest a different system would have better protected countries against the surge in energy costs, and that rolling back electricity prices is tougher than it appears during such spikes.

 

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Key Points

A record 2019 drop in global coal power as renewables rise and demand slows across China, India, the EU, and the US.

✅ 3% global fall in coal-fired electricity in 2019.

✅ China plateaus; India declines for first time in decades.

✅ EU and US shift to renewables and gas, cutting emissions.

 

The world’s use of coal-fired electricity is on track for its biggest annual fall on record this year after more than four decades of near-uninterrupted growth that has stoked the global climate crisis.

Data shows that coal-fired electricity is expected to fall by 3% in 2019, or more than the combined coal generation in Germany, Spain and the UK last year and could help stall the world’s rising carbon emissions this year.

The steepest global slump on record is likely to emerge in 2019 as India’s reliance on coal power falls for the first time in at least three decades this year, and China’s coal power demand plateaus, reflecting the broader global energy transition underway.

Both developing nations are using less coal-fired electricity due to slowing economic growth in Asia as well as the rise of cleaner energy alternatives. There is also expected to be unprecedented coal declines across the EU and the US as developed economies turn to clean forms of energy such as low-cost solar power to replace ageing coal plants.

In almost 40 years the world’s annual coal generation has fallen only twice before: in 2009, in the wake of the global financial crisis, and in 2015, following a slowdown in China’s coal plants amid rising levels of deadly air pollution.

The research was undertaken by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air , the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis and the UK climate thinktank Sandbag.

The researchers found that China’s coal-fired power generation was flatlining, despite an increase in the number of coal plants being built, because they were running at record low rates. China builds the equivalent of one large new coal plant every two weeks, according to the report, but its coal plants run for only 48.6% of the time, compared with a global utilisation rate of 54% on average.

The findings come after a report from Global Energy Monitor found that the number of coal-fired power plants in the world is growing, because China is building new coal plants five times faster than the rest of the world is reducing their coal-fired power capacity.

The report found that in other countries coal-fired power capacity fell by 8GW in the 18 months to June but over the same period China increased its capacity by 42.9GW.

In a paper for the industry journal Carbon Brief, the researchers said: “A 3% reduction in power sector coal use could imply zero growth in global CO2 emissions, if emissions changes in other sectors mirror those during 2018.”

However, the authors of the report have warned that despite the record coal power slump the world’s use of coal remained far too high to meet the climate goals of the Paris agreement, and some countries are still seeing increases, such as Australia’s emissions rise amid increased pollution from electricity and transport.

The US – which is backing out of the Paris agreement – has made the deepest cuts to coal power of any developed country this year by shutting coal plants down in favour of gas power and renewable energy, with utilities such as Duke Energy facing investor pressure to disclose climate plans. By the end of August the US had reduced coal by almost 14% over the year compared with the same months in 2018.

The EU reported a record slump in coal-fired electricity use in the first half of the year of almost a fifth compared with the same months last year. This trend is expected to accelerate over the second half of the year to average a 23% fall over 2019 as a whole. The EU is using less coal power in favour of gas-fired electricity – which can have roughly half the carbon footprint of coal – and renewable energy, helped by policies such as the UK carbon tax that have slashed coal-fired generation.

We will not stay quiet on the escalating climate crisis and we recognise it as the defining issue of our lifetimes. The Guardian will give global heating, wildlife extinction and pollution the urgent attention they demand. Our independence means we can interrogate inaction by those in power. It means Guardian reporting will always be driven by scientific facts, never by commercial or political interests.

We believe that the problems we face on the climate crisis are systemic and that fundamental societal change is needed. We will keep reporting on the efforts of individuals and communities around the world who are fearlessly taking a stand for future generations and the preservation of human life on earth. We want their stories to inspire hope. We will also report back on our own progress as an organisation, as we take important steps to address our impact on the environment.

 

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Key Points

IEA sees first demand drop since 2009 as COVID-19 curbs travel, weakening transport fuels and unsettling energy markets.

✅ IEA base case: 2020 demand at 99.9 mb/d, down 90 kb/d from 2019.

✅ Travel restrictions hit transport fuels; China drives the decline.

✅ Scenarios: low -730 kb/d; high +480 kb/d in 2020.

 

Global oil demand is expected to decline in 2020 as the impact of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) spreads around the world, constricting travel and broader economic activity, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest oil market forecast.

The situation remains fluid, creating an extraordinary degree of uncertainty over what the full global impact of the virus will be. In the IEA’s central base case, even as global CO2 emissions flatlined in 2019 according to the IEA, demand this year drops for the first time since 2009 because of the deep contraction in oil consumption in China, and major disruptions to global travel and trade.

“The coronavirus crisis is affecting a wide range of energy markets – including coal-fired electricity generation, gas and renewables – but its impact on oil markets is particularly severe because it is stopping people and goods from moving around, dealing a heavy blow to demand for transport fuels,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “This is especially true in China, the largest energy consumer in the world, which accounted for more than 80% of global oil demand growth last year. While the repercussions of the virus are spreading to other parts of the world, what happens in China will have major implications for global energy and oil markets.”

The IEA now sees global oil demand at 99.9 million barrels a day in 2020, down around 90,000 barrels a day from 2019. This is a sharp downgrade from the IEA’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand would grow by 825,000 barrels a day in 2020.

The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments move to contain the coronavirus outbreak, how successful their efforts are, and what lingering impact the global health crisis has on economic activity.

To account for the extreme uncertainty facing energy markets, the IEA has developed two other scenarios for how global oil demand could evolve this year. In a more pessimistic low case, global measures fail to contain the virus, and global demand falls by 730,000 barrels a day in 2020. In a more optimistic high case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand grows by 480,000 barrels a day.

“We are following the situation extremely closely and will provide regular updates to our forecasts as the picture becomes clearer,” Dr Birol said. “The impact of the coronavirus on oil markets may be temporary. But the longer-term challenges facing the world’s suppliers are not going to go away, especially those heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues. As the IEA has repeatedly said, these producer countries need more dynamic and diversified economies in order to navigate the multiple uncertainties that we see today.”

The IEA also published its medium-term outlook examining the key issues in global demand, supply, refining and trade to 2025, as well as the trajectory of the global energy transition now shaping markets. Following a contraction in 2020 and an expected sharp rebound in 2021, yearly growth in global oil demand is set to slow as consumption of transport fuels grows more slowly and as national net-zero pathways, with Canada needing more electricity to reach net-zero influencing power demand, according to the report. Between 2019 and 2025, global oil demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of just below 1 million barrels a day. Over the period as whole, demand rises by a total of 5.7 million barrels a day, with China and India accounting for about half of the growth.

At the same time, the world’s oil production capacity is expected to rise by 5.9 million barrels a day, with more than three-quarters of it coming from non-OPEC producers, the report forecasts. But production growth in the United States and other non-OPEC countries is set to lose momentum after 2022, amid shifts in Wall Street's energy strategy linked to policy signals, allowing OPEC producers from the Middle East to turn the taps back up to help keep the global oil market in balance.

The medium-term market report, Oil 2020, also considers the impact of clean energy transitions on oil market trends. Demand growth for gasoline and diesel between 2019 and 2025 is forecast to weaken as countries around the world implement policies to improve efficiency and cut carbon dioxide emissions – and as solar power becomes the cheapest electricity in many markets and electric vehicles increase in popularity. The impact of energy transitions on oil supply remains unclear, with many companies prioritising short-cycle projects for the coming years.

“The coronavirus crisis is adding to the uncertainties the global oil industry faces as it contemplates new investments and business strategies,” Dr Birol said. “The pressures on companies are changing, with European oil majors turning electric to diversify. They need to show that they can deliver not just the energy that economies rely on, but also the emissions reductions that the world needs to help tackle our climate challenge.”

 

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Key Points

Recurring seismic events impacting Puerto Rico, causing damage, aftershocks, outages, and displacement.

✅ Seismic swarm with 6.4 and 5.9 magnitude quakes and ongoing aftershocks

✅ Costa Sur Plant offline; PREPA urges conservation amid grid repairs

✅ Older, code-deficient buildings and landslides raise safety risks

 

Some in Puerto Rico are beginning to fear the ground will never stop shaking. The island has been pummeled by hundreds of earthquakes in recent weeks, including the recent 5.9 magnitude temblor, where there were reports of landslides in the town of Peñuelas along the southern coast, rattling residents already on edge from the massive 6.4 magnitude quake, and raising wider concerns about climate risks to the grid in disaster-prone regions.

That was the largest to strike the island in more than a century causing hundreds of structures to crumble, forcing thousands from their homes and leaving millions without power, a scenario echoed by Texas power outages during winter storms too. One person was killed and several others injured.

Utility says 99% of customers have electricity

Puerto Rico's public utility, PREPA, tweeted some welcome news Monday: that nearly all of the homes and businesses it serves have had electric power restored. Still it is urging customers to conserve energy amid utility supply-chain shortages that can slow critical repairs.

Reporting from the port city of Ponce, NPR's Adrian Florido said the Costa Sur Plant, which produces more than 40% of Puerto Rico's electricity, was badly damaged in last week's quake. It remains offline indefinitely, even as grid operators elsewhere have faced California blackout warnings during extreme heat.

He also reports many residents are still reeling from the devastation caused by Hurricane Maria, a deadly Category 4 storm that battered the island in September 2017. The storm exposed the fact that buildings across the island were not up to code, similar to how aging systems have contributed to PG&E power line fires in California. The series of earthquakes are only amplifying fears that structures have been further weakened.

"People aren't coping terribly well," Florido said on NPR's Morning Edition Monday, noting that households elsewhere have endured pandemic power shutoffs and burdensome bills.

Many earthquake victims sleeping outdoors

Florido spoke to one displaced resident, Leticia Espada, who said more than 50 homes in her town of Guayanilla, about an hour drive east of the port city of Ponce, had collapsed.

After sleeping outside for days on her patio following Tuesday's quake, she eventually came to her town's baseball stadium where she's been sleeping on one of hundreds of government-issued cots.

She's like so many others sleeping in open-air shelters, many unwilling to go back to their homes until they've been deemed safe, while even far from disaster zones, brief events like a Northeast D.C. outage show how fragile service can be.

"Thousands of people across several towns sleeping in tents or under tarps, or out in the open, protected by nothing but the shade of a tree with no sense of when these quakes are going to stop," Florido reports.

 

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