UBS raises its price forecasts for coal

By Marketwire


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UBS raised its price forecasts for coal used in power plants and steel mills in 2008 and 2009 because of expanding Asian demand and constrained supply.

Coking coal used to make steel will average $145 a metric ton next year, compared with $130 forecast on Oct. 8, the bank said in a recent report. The 2009 forecast was raised to $135, from $115. Thermal coal will average $90 a ton next year and $105 in 2009, up from previous predictions of $70 and $75.

UBS, based out of Zurich, Switzerland, is one of the largest global asset managers and the market leader in retail and commercial banking.

"Long-term growth trends in Asia, particularly China and India, will keep coal suppliers struggling to meet demand," the analysts, led by Shneur Gershuni, said in the report.

"Non-traditional sources of supply, including North America, are increasingly being sought by anxious Asian consumers."

Thermal coal has jumped to a record this year because of port and rail bottlenecks and after China increased imports of the fuel.

Global steel production will exceed one billion tons for a fourth consecutive year in 2007, the International Iron & Steel Institute predicted this month.

China increased coal imports 44 percent to 42.34 million tons in the first 10 months of this year, Chinese customs said Nov. 15. Exports dropped 17.6 percent to 43.26 million tons in the same period.

Thermal coal prices under annual supply contracts may rise to $90 a ton in the fiscal year starting April 1, 2008, from $56 this year, Goldman Sachs JBWere said in their report. The firm previously estimated prices would rise to $75 next year.

Credit Suisse raised its 2008 price forecast for thermal coal by $10 a ton to $80 a ton last week, and JPMorgan Chase increased its estimate in 2008 to $70 from $60, in an Oct. 25 report.

The United States "is likely to be a marginal supplier for the seaborne thermal coal market" as inadequate transportation and loading facilities limit shipments from Australia and South Africa while a prolonged wet season curbed Indonesian production growth, the report said.

Rio Tinto said that it had declared force majeure and may not meet orders to export coal from its mines in Queensland, Australia, because of congestion at the Dalrymple Bay Port.

Force majeure is a legal clause allowing a company to cancel contractual obligations due to circumstances beyond its control.

The clause will apply to sales in the first quarter of 2008.

"At seaborne prices north of $90 a ton, the shippers in the western United States would be incentivized to provide thermal coal to the hungry Asian market," UBS said in the report.

The United States produced 945 million tons of coal in 2006, second only to China, according to data from the International Energy Agency.

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Advocates call for change after $2.9 million surplus revealed for BC Hydro fund

BC Hydro Customer Crisis Fund Surplus highlights unused grants, pilot program imbalance, and calls to reduce fees or expand eligibility. Ratepayers, regulators, and social agencies urge awareness, rebates, and aid for overdue electricity bills.

 

Key Points

A funding carryover from BC Hydro's crisis grants, sparking debate over fee reductions or more aid eligibility.

✅ $2.9M surplus from 25-cent monthly customer fee

✅ Only 2,250 grants issued; awareness and eligibility questioned

✅ Regulator may refund balance or adjust program design

 

BC Hydro is sitting on a surplus of about $2.9 million in its customer crisis fund, even as BC Hydro rates rise 3% across the province, leading to calls for the utility to reduce its take from the average customer or provide more money to those in need.

B.C. Liberal Energy Critic Greg Kyllo said if the imbalance continues in the year-old pilot program, amid a provincial rate freeze announced by the province, it’s time to cut the monthly 25 cent fee in half.

"If the grant requirement or the need in the province is going to remain where it is, they should look at rolling back the contribution level in the fund," he told CTV News Vancouver from Salmon Arm.

But social agencies who were part of the consultation around the fund in the beginning said it’s more likely that people in need don’t know about the fund and more time is necessary to get the word out.

"If they collect the money, then the program’s got to change to make sure more people are able to be helped," said Gudrun Langolf of the Council of Senior Citizens Organizations of BC.

The customer crisis fund was started in spring 2018 to give people short-term relief when they can’t pay their electricity bills, especially as a $2 monthly hike pressures household budgets. Customers can apply to get a grant of up to $500 to keep the lights on, and up to $600 if electricity heats their homes.

The public utility took in about 25 cents per customer per month which added up to a revenue of $4.5 million in the year since the program started, BC Hydro confirmed to CTV News.

But the agency only gave out 2,250 grants totalling $850,000.

Administration costs added up around $750,000 – leaving the $2.9 million remaining.

The news will come as a welcome relief to those who suddenly struggle to pay their hydro bills, particularly as Alberta ratepayers are on the hook under a utility deferral program elsewhere in Canada.

Some people who come into Disability Alliance B.C. are often anxious and emotional when they’re suddenly unable to pay their bills, said Shar Saremi, an advocate there.

"I’ve had people crying. I’ve had people who have experienced a loss in the family," she said. "A lot of the time people are stressed out, anxious, really upset. They are looking for assistance, and they aren’t sure what is available for them."

She said people are only eligible if their bills are under $1,000, which could be cutting out the people who are most in need. And because the program is in its first year, it could be undersubscribed, she said.

"A lot of people don’t know about the program, don’t know how to apply, or what kind of assistance is out there," Saremi said.

The fund was established thanks to an order from the B.C. Utilities Commission, the utilities regulator in the province.

The pilot program is going to be examined by the regulator at the end of its first year.

"Any remaining balance in the account at the end of the pilot would be returned to residential ratepayers," says a BCUC fact sheet, as BC Hydro rates are set to rise 3.75% over two years. The decision on exactly what to do with the money hasn’t yet been made.

In Manitoba, a similar program is by donation, and in Newfoundland and Labrador a lump-sum credit was offered to bill payers in a separate initiative. That program raised about $200,000 from customers and $60,000 in other income. It spent $199,000 on grants to applicants, but lost about $20,000 a year.

In Ontario, private utilities are expected to raise 0.12 per cent of their revenue, and Hydro One reconnections have highlighted the stakes for nonpayment there. Across the province, those utilities gave out about $7.3 million in grants. Any unused funds in one year are rolled over to the following year.

 

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Flowing with current, Frisco, Colorado wants 100% clean electricity

Frisco 100% Renewable Electricity Goal outlines decarbonization via Xcel Energy, wind, solar, and battery storage, enabling beneficial electrification and a smarter grid for 100% municipal power by 2025 and community-wide clean electricity by 2035.

 

Key Points

Frisco targets 100% renewable electricity: municipal by 2025, community by 2035, via Xcel decarbonization.

✅ Municipal operations to reach 100% renewable electricity by 2025

✅ Community-wide electricity to be 100% carbon-free by 2035

✅ Partnerships: Xcel Energy, wind, solar, storage, grid markets

 

Frisco has now set a goal of 100-per-cent renewable energy, joining communities on the road to 100% renewables across the country. But unlike some other resolutions adopted in the last decade, this one isn't purely aspirational. It's swimming with a strong current.

With the resolution adopted last week by the town council, Frisco joins 10 other Colorado towns and cities, plus Pueblo and Summit counties, a trend reflected in tracking progress on clean energy targets reports nationwide, in adopting 100-per-cent goals.

The goal is to get the municipality's electricity to 100-per-cent by 2025 and the community altogether by 2035, a timeline aligned with scenarios showing zero-emissions electricity by 2035 is possible in North America.

Decarbonizing electricity will be far easier than transportation, and transportation far easier than buildings. Many see carbon-free electricity as being crucial to both, a concept called "beneficial electrification," and point to ways to meet decarbonization goals that leverage electrified end uses.

Electricity for Frisco comes from Xcel Energy, an investor-owned utility that is making giant steps toward decarbonizing its power supply.

Xcel first announced plans to close its work-horse power plants early to take advantage of now-cheap wind and solar resources plus what will be the largest battery storage project east of the Rocky Mountains. All this will be accomplished by 2026 and will put Xcel at 55 per cent renewable generation in Colorado.

In December, a week after Frisco launched the process that produced the resolution, Xcel announced further steps, an 80 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 as compared to 2050 levels. By 2050, the company vows to be 100 per cent "carbon-free" energy by 2050.

Frisco's non-binding goals were triggered by Fran Long, who is retired and living in Frisco. For eight years, though, he worked for Xcel in helping shape its response to the declining prices of renewables. In his retirement, he has also helped put together the aspirational goal adopted by Breckenridge for 100-per-cent renewables.

A task force that Long led identified a three-pronged approach. First, the city government must lead by example. The resolution calls for the town to spend $25,000 to $50,000 annually during the next several years to improve energy efficiency in its municipal facilities. Then, through an Xcel program called Renewable Connect, it can pay an added cost to allow it to say it uses 100-per-cent electricity from renewable sources.

Beyond that, Frisco wants to work with high-end businesses to encourage buying output from solar gardens or other devices that will allow them to proclaim 100-per-cent renewable energy. The task force also recommends a marketing program directed to homes and smaller businesses.

Goals of 100-per-cent renewable electricity are problematic, given why the grid isn't 100% renewable today for technical and economic reasons. Aspen Electric, which provides electricity for about two-thirds of the town, by 2015 had secured enough wind and hydro, mostly from distant locations, to allow it to proclaim 100 per cent renewables.

In fact, some of those electrons in Aspen almost certainly originate in coal or gas plants. That doesn't make Aspen's claim wrong. But the fact remains that nobody has figured out how, at least at affordable cost, to deliver 100-per-cent clean energy on a broad basis.

Xcel Energy, which supplies more than 60 per cent of electricity in Colorado, one of six states in which it operates, has a taller challenge. But it is a very different utility than it was in 2004, when it spent heavily in advertising to oppose a mandate that it would have to achieve 10 per cent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020.

Once it lost the election, though, Xcel set out to comply. Integrating renewables proved far more easily than was feared. It has more than doubled the original mandate for 2020. Wind delivers 82 per cent of that generation, with another 18 per cent coming from community, rooftop, and utility-scale solar.

The company has become steadily more proficient at juggling different intermittent power supplies while ensuring lights and computers remain on. This is partly the result of practice but also of relatively minor technological wrinkles, such as improved weather forecasting, according to an Energy News Network story published in March.

For example, a Boulder company, Global Weather corporation, projects wind—and hence electrical production—from turbines for 10 days ahead. It updates its forecasts every 15 minutes.

Forecasts have become so good, said John T. Welch, director of power operations for Xcel in Colorado, that the utility uses 95 per cent to 98 per cent of the electricity generated by turbines. This has allowed the company to use its coal and natural gas plants less.M

Moreover, prices of wind and then solar declined slowly at first and then dramatically.

Xcel is now comfortable that existing technology will allow it to push from 55 per cent renewables in 2026 to an 80 per cent carbon reduction goal by 2030.

But when announcing their goal of emissions-free energy by mid-century in December, the company's Minneapolis-based chief executive, Ben Fowke, and Alice Jackson, the chief executive of the company's Colorado subsidiary, freely admitted they had no idea how they will achieve it. "I have a lot of confidence they will be developed," Fowke said of new technologies.

Everything is on the table, they said, including nuclear. But also including fossil fuels, if the carbon dioxide can be sequestered. So far, such technology has proven prohibitively expensive despite billions of dollars in federal support for research and deployment. They suggested it might involve new technology.

Xcel's Welch told Energy News Network that he believes solar must play a larger role, and he believes solar forecasting must improve.

Storage technology must also improve as batteries are transforming solar economics across markets. Batteries, such as produced by Tesla at its Gigafactory near Reno, can store electricity for hours, maybe even a few days. But batteries that can store large amounts of electricity for months will be needed in Colorado. Wind is plentiful in spring but not so much in summer, when air conditioners crank up.

Increased sharing of cheap renewable generation among utilities will also allow deeper penetration of carbon-free energy, a dynamic consistent with studies finding wind and solar could meet 80% of demand with improved transmission. Western US states and Canadian provinces are all on one grid, but the different parts are Balkanized. In other words, California is largely its own energy balancing authority, ensuring electricity supplies match electricity demands. Ditto for Colorado. The Pacific Northwest has its own balancing authority.

If they were all orchestrated as one in an expanded energy market across the West, however, electricity supplies and demands could more easily be matched. California's surplus of solar on summer afternoons, for example, might be moved to Colorado.

Colorado legislators in early May adopted a bill that requires the state's Public Utilities Commission to begin study by late this year of an energy imbalance market or regional transmission organization.

 

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Alberta Introduces New Electricity Rules

Alberta Rate of Last Resort streamlines electricity regulations to stabilize the default rate, curb price volatility, and protect rural communities, low-income households, and seniors while preserving competition in the province's energy market.

 

Key Points

Alberta's Rate of Last Resort sets biennial default electricity prices, curbing volatility and protecting customers.

✅ Biennial default rate to limit price spikes

✅ Focus on rural, senior, and low-income customers

✅ Encourages competitive contracts and market stability

 

The Alberta government is overhauling its electricity regulations as part of a market overhaul aimed at reducing spikes in electricity prices for consumers and businesses. The new rules, set to be introduced this spring, are intended to stabilize the default electricity rate paid by many Albertans.


Background on the Rate of Last Resort

Albertans currently have the option to sign up for competitive contracts with electricity providers. These contracts can sometimes offer lower rates than the default electricity rate, officially known as the Regulated Rate Option (RRO). However, these competitive rates can fluctuate significantly. Currently, those unable to secure these contracts or those who are on the default rate are experiencing rising electricity prices and high levels of price volatility.

To address this, the Alberta government is renaming the default rate as the Rate of Last Resort designation (RoLR) under the new framework. This aims to reduce the sense of security that some consumers might associate with the current name, which the government feels is misleading.


Key Changes Under New Regulations

The new regulations, which include proposed market changes that affect pricing, focus on:

  • Price Stabilization: Default electricity rates will be set every two years for each utility provider, providing greater predictability by enabling a consumer price cap and reducing the potential for extreme price swings.
  • Rural and Underserved Communities: The changes are intended to particularly benefit rural Albertans and those on the default rate, including low-income individuals and seniors. These groups often lack access to the competitive rates offered by some providers and have been disproportionately affected by recent price increases.
  • Promoting Economic Stability: The goal is to lower the cost of utilities for all Albertans, leading to overall lower costs of living and doing business. The government anticipates these changes will create a more attractive environment for investment and job creation.


Opposition Views

Critics argue that limiting the flexibility of prices for the default electricity rate could interfere with market dynamics and stifle market competition among providers. Some worry it could ultimately lead to higher prices in the long term. Others advocate directly subsidizing low-income households rather than introducing broad price controls.


Balancing Affordability and the Market

The Alberta government maintains that the proposed changes will strike a balance between ensuring affordable electricity for vulnerable Albertans and preserving a competitive energy market. Provincial officials emphasize that the new regulations should not deter consumers from seeking out competitive rates if they choose to.


The Path Ahead

The new electricity regulations are part of the Alberta government's broader Affordable Utilities Program, alongside electricity policy changes across the province. The legislation is expected to be introduced and debated in the provincial legislature this spring with the potential of coming into effect later in the year. Experts expect these changes will significantly impact the Alberta electricity market and ignite further discussion about how best to manage rising utility costs for consumers and businesses.

 

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Experts Question Quebec's Push for EV Dominance

Quebec EV transition plan aims for 2 million electric vehicles by 2030 and bans new gas cars by 2035, stressing charging infrastructure, incentives, emissions cuts, and industry impacts, with debate over feasibility and economic risks.

 

Key Points

A provincial policy targeting 2M EVs by 2030 and a 2035 gas-car sales ban, backed by charging buildout and incentives.

✅ Requires major charging infrastructure and grid upgrades

✅ Balances incentives with economic impacts and industry readiness

✅ Gas stations persist while EV adoption accelerates cautiously

 

Quebec's ambitious push to dominate the electric vehicle (EV) market, echoing Canada's EV goals in its plan, by setting a target of two million EVs on the road by 2030 and planning to ban the sale of new gas-powered vehicles by 2035 has sparked significant debate among industry experts. While the government's objectives aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote sustainable transportation, some experts question the feasibility and potential economic impacts of such rapid transitions.

Current Landscape of Gas Stations in Quebec

Contrary to Environment Minister Benoit Charette's assertion that gas stations may become scarce within the next decade, industry experts suggest that the number of gas stations in Quebec is unlikely to decline drastically. Carol Montreuil, Vice President of the Canadian Fuels Association, describes the minister's statement as "wishful thinking," emphasizing that the number of gas stations has remained relatively stable over the past decade. Statistics indicate that in 2023, Quebec residents purchased more gasoline than ever before, and EV shortages and wait times further underscore the continued demand for traditional fuel sources.

Challenges in Accelerating EV Adoption

The government's goal of having two million EVs on Quebec roads by 2030 presents several challenges. Currently, there are approximately 200,000 fully electric cars in the province. Achieving a tenfold increase in less than a decade requires substantial investments in charging infrastructure, consumer incentives, and public education to address concerns such as range anxiety and charging accessibility, especially amid electricity shortage warnings across Quebec and other provinces.

Economic Considerations and Industry Concerns

Industry stakeholders express concerns about the economic implications of rapidly phasing out gas-powered vehicles. Montreuil warns that the industry is already struggling and that attempting to transition too quickly could lead to economic challenges, a view echoed by critics who label the 2035 EV mandate delusional. He suggests that the government may be spending excessive public funds on subsidies for technologies that are still expensive and not yet widely adopted.

Public Sentiment and Adoption Rates

Public sentiment towards EVs is mixed, and experiences in Manitoba suggest the road to targets is not smooth. While some consumers, like Montreal resident Alex Rajabi, have made the switch to electric vehicles and are satisfied with their decision, others remain hesitant due to concerns about vehicle cost, charging infrastructure, and the availability of incentives. Rajabi, who transitioned to an EV nine months ago, notes that while he did not take advantage of the incentive program, he is happy with his decision and suggests that adding charging ports at gas stations could facilitate the transition.

The Need for a Balanced Approach

Experts advocate for a balanced approach that considers the pace of technological advancements, consumer readiness, and economic impacts. While the transition to electric vehicles is essential for environmental sustainability, it is crucial to ensure that the infrastructure, market conditions, and public acceptance are adequately addressed, and to recognize that a share of Canada's electricity still comes from fossil fuels, to make the shift both feasible and beneficial for all stakeholders.

In summary, Quebec's ambitious EV targets reflect a strong commitment to environmental sustainability. However, industry experts caution that achieving these goals requires careful planning, substantial investment, and a realistic assessment of the challenges involved as federal EV sales regulations take shape, in transitioning from traditional vehicles to electric mobility.

 

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Minister approves 30-megawatt wind farm expansion in Eastern Kings

Eastern Kings Wind Farm Expansion advances P.E.I. renewable energy with seven new wind turbines, environmental assessment, wildlife monitoring of birds and bats, and community consultation to double output to 30 MW for domestic consumption.

 

Key Points

A P.E.I. project adding seven turbines for 30 MW, under 17 conditions, with wildlife monitoring and community oversight.

✅ Seven new turbines, larger than existing units

✅ 17 conditions, monthly compliance reporting

✅ Two-year wildlife study for birds and bats

 

A proposal to expand an existing wind farm in eastern P.E.I. has been given the go-ahead, according to P.E.I.’s Department of Environment, Water and Climate Change, as related grid work like a new transmission line progresses in the region.

Minister Natalie Jameson approved the P.E.I. Energy Corporation’s Eastern Kings Wind Farm expansion project, the province announced in a release Wednesday afternoon, as Atlantic Canada advances other renewable initiatives like tidal power to diversify supply.

The project will be subject to 17 conditions, which were drawn from a review of the 80 responses the province received from the public on the proposed Eastern Kings Wind Farm expansion.

The corporation must provide a summary on the status of each condition to the department on a monthly basis.

“This decision balances the needs of people, communities, wellness and the environment,” Jameson said in the release.

“It allows this renewable energy project to proceed and reduce greenhouse [gas] emissions that cause climate change while mitigating the project’s impact to the Island’s ecosystem.”

The P.E.I. Energy Corporation wants to double the output of its Eastern Kings Wind Farm with the installation of seven wind turbines between the communities of Elmira and East Point to develop 30 megawatts of wind power for domestic consumption, according to the minister’s impact assessment, aligning with regional moves to expand wind and solar projects across Atlantic Canada.

The new turbines are expected to be larger than the existing 10 at the site, even as regional utilities study major grid changes to integrate more renewables.

Project must comply with conditions

In February, the province said it would identify any specific questions or concerns it felt needed to be addressed in the submissions, according to Greg Wilson, manager of environmental land management for the province, while some advocate for independent electricity planning to guide such decisions.

Public feedback closed in January, after an earlier extension to wait for a supplemental report on birds and bats.

The corporation needs to comply with all conditions – such as monitoring environmental impact, setting up an environmental management plan and creating a committee to address concerns – listed in the release on Wednesday, amid calls from environmental advocates to reduce biomass use in electricity generation.

A condition in the release suggests representatives from L’nuey, the Souris and Area Wildlife Branch, the Rural Municipality of Eastern Kings and local residents to make up the committee.

The corporation will also need to conduct a study over two years after construction to look at the impact on bats and birds, and implement a protocol to report deaths of birds to federal and provincial authorities.

According to Canada Energy Regulator, roughly 98 per cent of power generated on P.E.I. comes from wind farms. It also said there were 203 megawatts installed on P.E.I. as of 2018, and the majority of energy consumed on the Island comes from New Brunswick from a mix of nuclear, fossil fuels and hydroelectricity, while in Nova Scotia, the utility has increased biomass generation as part of its supply mix.

 

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Cooperation agreement for Rosatom and Russian Academy

Rosatom-RAS Cooperation drives joint R&D in nuclear energy, nuclear medicine, fusion, particle accelerators, laser technologies, fuel cycle safety, radioactive waste management, and supercomputing, aligning strategic planning and standards to accelerate innovation across Russia's nuclear sector.

 

Key Points

A pact uniting Rosatom and RAS on nuclear R&D, fusion, and medicine to advance nuclear technologies across Russia.

✅ Joint R&D in fusion, accelerators, lasers, and new materials

✅ Focus on fuel cycle closure, safety, and waste management

✅ Shared strategic planning, standards, and expert evaluation

 

Russian state atomic energy corporation Rosatom and the Russian State Academy of Sciences are to cooperate on joint scientific, technical and innovative activities in areas including nuclear energy, nuclear medicine and other areas of the electricity sector under an agreement signed in Moscow on 7 February.

The cooperation agreement was signed by Rosatom Director General Alexei Likhachov and President of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Sergeev during a joint meeting to mark Russian Science Day. Under its terms, the partners will cooperate in organising research and development activities aimed at providing technological advantages in various sectors of the domestic industry, as well as creating and developing interdisciplinary scientific and technological centres and organisations supporting energy sector training and innovation. They will also jointly develop strategic planning documents, improve the technical and scientific regulatory and legal framework, and carry out expert evaluations of scientific and technical projects and scientific consultations.

Rosatom said the main areas of cooperation in the agreement are: the development of laser technologies and particle accelerators; the creation of modern diagnostic equipment, nuclear medicine and radiation therapy; controlled thermonuclear fusion; nuclear energy of the future; new materials; the nuclear fuel cycle and its closure; safety of nuclear energy and power sector pandemic response preparedness; environmental aspects of radioactive waste management; modern supercomputers, databases, application packages, and import-substituting codes; and also X-ray astronomy and nuclear planetology.

Likhachov said joint activities between Rosatom and the Academy would strengthen the Russian nuclear industry's "leadership" in the world and allow the creation of new technologies that would shape the future image of the nuclear industry in Russia. "Within the framework of the Agreement, we intend to expand work on the entire spectrum of advanced scientific research. The most important direction of our cooperation will be the integration of fundamental, exploratory and applied scientific research, including in the interests of the development of the nuclear industry. We will work together to form the nuclear energy industry of the future, and enhance grid resilience, to create new materials, new radiation technologies,” he said.

Sergeyev noted the "rich history" of cooperation between the Academy of Sciences and the nuclear industry, including modern safety practices such as arc flash training that support operations. “All major projects in the field of military and peaceful nuclear energy were carried out jointly by scientists and specialists of our organisations, which largely ensured their timeliness and success," he said.

 

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