UBS raises its price forecasts for coal

By Marketwire


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UBS raised its price forecasts for coal used in power plants and steel mills in 2008 and 2009 because of expanding Asian demand and constrained supply.

Coking coal used to make steel will average $145 a metric ton next year, compared with $130 forecast on Oct. 8, the bank said in a recent report. The 2009 forecast was raised to $135, from $115. Thermal coal will average $90 a ton next year and $105 in 2009, up from previous predictions of $70 and $75.

UBS, based out of Zurich, Switzerland, is one of the largest global asset managers and the market leader in retail and commercial banking.

"Long-term growth trends in Asia, particularly China and India, will keep coal suppliers struggling to meet demand," the analysts, led by Shneur Gershuni, said in the report.

"Non-traditional sources of supply, including North America, are increasingly being sought by anxious Asian consumers."

Thermal coal has jumped to a record this year because of port and rail bottlenecks and after China increased imports of the fuel.

Global steel production will exceed one billion tons for a fourth consecutive year in 2007, the International Iron & Steel Institute predicted this month.

China increased coal imports 44 percent to 42.34 million tons in the first 10 months of this year, Chinese customs said Nov. 15. Exports dropped 17.6 percent to 43.26 million tons in the same period.

Thermal coal prices under annual supply contracts may rise to $90 a ton in the fiscal year starting April 1, 2008, from $56 this year, Goldman Sachs JBWere said in their report. The firm previously estimated prices would rise to $75 next year.

Credit Suisse raised its 2008 price forecast for thermal coal by $10 a ton to $80 a ton last week, and JPMorgan Chase increased its estimate in 2008 to $70 from $60, in an Oct. 25 report.

The United States "is likely to be a marginal supplier for the seaborne thermal coal market" as inadequate transportation and loading facilities limit shipments from Australia and South Africa while a prolonged wet season curbed Indonesian production growth, the report said.

Rio Tinto said that it had declared force majeure and may not meet orders to export coal from its mines in Queensland, Australia, because of congestion at the Dalrymple Bay Port.

Force majeure is a legal clause allowing a company to cancel contractual obligations due to circumstances beyond its control.

The clause will apply to sales in the first quarter of 2008.

"At seaborne prices north of $90 a ton, the shippers in the western United States would be incentivized to provide thermal coal to the hungry Asian market," UBS said in the report.

The United States produced 945 million tons of coal in 2006, second only to China, according to data from the International Energy Agency.

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British Columbians can access more in EV charger rebates

B.C. EV Charging Rebates boost CleanBC incentives as NRCan and ZEVIP funding covers up to 75% of Level 2 and DC fast-charger purchase and installation costs for homes, workplaces, condos, apartments, and fleet operators.

 

Key Points

Incentives in B.C. cover up to 75% of Level 2 and DC fast charger costs for homes, workplaces, and fleets.

✅ Up to 75% back; Level 2 max $5,000; DC fast max $75,000 for fleets.

✅ Eligible sites: homes, workplaces, condos, apartments, fleet depots.

✅ Funded by CleanBC with NRCan ZEVIP; time-limited top-up.

 

The Province and Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) are making it more affordable for people to install electric vehicle (EV) charging stations in their homes, businesses and communities, as EV demand ramps up across the province.

B.C. residents, businesses and municipalities can receive higher rebates for EV charging stations through the CleanBC Go Electric EV Charger Rebate and Fleets programs. For a limited time, funding will cover as much as 75% of eligible purchase and installation costs for EV charging stations, which is an increase from the previous 50% coverage.

“With electric vehicles representing 13% of all new light-duty vehicles sold in B.C. last year, our province has the strongest adoption rate of electric vehicles in Canada. We’re positioning ourselves to become leaders in the EV industry,” said Bruce Ralston, B.C.’s Minister of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation. “We’re working with our federal partners to increase rebates for home, workplace and fleet charging, and making it easier and more affordable for people to make the switch to electric vehicles.”

With a $2-million investment through NRCan’s Zero-Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Program (ZEVIP) to top up the Province’s EV Charger Rebate program, workplaces, condominiums and apartments can get a rebate for a Level 2 charging station for as much as 75% of purchase and installation costs to a maximum of $5,000. As many as 360 EV chargers will be installed through the program.

“We’re making electric vehicles more affordable and charging more accessible where Canadians live, work and play,” said Jonathan Wilkinson, federal Minister of Natural Resources. “Investing in more EV chargers, like the ones announced today in British Columbia, will put more Canadians in the driver’s seat on the road to a net-zero future and help achieve our climate goals.”

Through the CleanBC Go Electric Fleets program and in support of B.C. businesses that own and operate fleet vehicles, NRCan has invested $1.54 million through ZEVIP to top up rebates. Fleet operators can get combined rebates from NRCan and the Province for a Level 2 charging station as much as 75% to a maximum of $5,000 of purchase and installation costs, and 75% to a maximum of $75,000 for a direct-current, fast-charging station. As many as 450 EV chargers will be installed through the program.

CleanBC is a pathway to a more prosperous, balanced and sustainable future. It supports government’s commitment to climate action to meet B.C.’s emission targets and build a cleaner, stronger economy.

Quick Facts:

  • A direct-current fast charger on the BC Electric Highway allows an EV to get 100-300 kilometres of range from 30 minutes of charging.
  • Faster chargers, which give more range in less time, are coming out every year.
  • A Level 2 charger allows an EV to get approximately 30 kilometres of range per hour of charging.
  • It uses approximately the same voltage as a clothes dryer and is usually installed in homes, workplaces or for fleets to get a faster charge than a regular outlet, or in public places where people might park for a longer time.
  • A key CleanBC action is to strengthen the Zero-Emission Vehicles Act to require light-duty vehicle sales to be 26% zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 2026, 90% by 2030 and 100% by 2035, five years ahead of the original target.
  • At the end of 2021, B.C. had more than 3,000 public EV charging stations and almost 80,000 registered ZEVs.

Learn More:

To learn more about home and workplace EV charging-station rebates, eligibility and application processes, visit: https://goelectricbc.gov.bc.ca/   

To learn more about the Fleets program, visit: https://pluginbc.ca/go-electric-fleets/    

To learn more about Natural Resources Canada’s Zero-Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Program, visit:
https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy-efficiency/transportation-alternative-fuels/zero-emission-vehicle-infrastructure-program/21876

 

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BC announces grid development, job creation

BC Hydro Power Pathway accelerates electrification with clean energy investments, new transmission lines, upgraded substations, and renewable projects like wind and solar, strengthening the grid, supporting decarbonization, and creating jobs across British Columbia's growing economy.

 

Key Points

A $36B, 10-year BC Hydro plan to expand clean power infrastructure, accelerate electrification, and support jobs.

✅ $36B for new lines, substations, dam upgrades, and distribution

✅ Supports 10,500-12,500 jobs per year across B.C.

✅ Adds wind and solar, leveraging hydro to balance renewables

 

BC Hydro is gearing up for a decade of extensive construction to enhance British Columbia's electrical system, supporting a burgeoning clean economy and community growth while generating new employment opportunities.

Premier David Eby emphasized the necessity of expanding the electrical system for industrial growth, residential needs, and future advancements. He highlighted the role of clean, affordable energy in reducing pollution, securing well-paying jobs, and fostering economic growth.

At the B.C. Natural Resources Forum in Prince George, Premier Eby unveiled a $36-billion investment plan for infrastructure projects in communities and regions and green energy solutions to provide clean, affordable electricity for future generations.

The Power Pathway: Building BC’s Energy Future, BC Hydro’s revised 10-year capital plan, involves nearly $36 billion in investments across the province from 2024-25 to 2033-34. This marks a 50% increase from the previous plan of $24 billion and includes a substantial rise in electrification and emissions-reduction projects (nearly $10 billion, up from $1 billion).

These upcoming construction projects are expected to support approximately 10,500 to 12,500 jobs annually. The plan is set to bolster and sustain BC Hydro’s capital investments as significant projects like Site C are near completion.

The plan addresses the increasing demand for electricity due to population and housing growth, industrial development, such as a major hydrogen project, and the transition from fossil fuels to clean electricity. Key projects include constructing new high-voltage transmission lines from Prince George to Terrace, building or expanding substations in high-growth areas, and upgrading dams and generating facilities for enhanced safety and efficiency.

Minister of Energy, Mines, and Low Carbon Innovation Josie Osborne stated that this plan aims to build a clean energy future and support EV charging expansion while creating construction jobs. With BC Hydro’s capital plan allocating almost $4 billion annually for the next decade, it will drive economic growth and ensure access to clean, affordable electricity.

BC Hydro aims to add new clean, renewable energy sources like wind and solar, while acknowledging power supply challenges that must be managed as capacity grows. B.C.’s hydroelectric dams, functioning as batteries, enable the integration of intermittent renewables into the grid, providing reliable backup.

Chris O’Riley, president and CEO of BC Hydro, said the grid is one of the world’s cleanest. The new $36 billion capital plan encompasses investments in generation assets, large transmission infrastructure, and local distribution networks.

In partnership with BC Hydro, Premier Eby also announced a new streamlined approval process to expedite electrification for high-demand industries and support job creation, complementing measures like the BC Hydro rebate and B.C. Affordability Credit that help households.

Minister of Environment and Climate Change Strategy George Heyman highlighted the importance of rapid electrification in collaboration with the private sector to achieve CleanBC climate goals by 2030, including corridor charging via the BC's Electric Highway, and maintain the competitiveness of B.C. industries. The new process will streamline approvals for industrial electrification projects, enhancing efficiency and funding certainty.

 

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Overturning statewide vote, Maine court energizes Hydro-Quebec's bid to export power

Maine Hydropower Transmission Line revived by high court after referendum challenge, advancing NECEC, Hydro-Quebec supply, Central Maine Power partnership, clean energy integration, grid reliability, and lower rates across New England pending land-lease ruling.

 

Key Points

A court-revived NECEC line delivering 1,200 MW of Hydro-Quebec hydropower via CMP to strengthen the New England grid.

✅ Maine high court deems retroactive referendum unconstitutional

✅ Pending state land lease case may affect final route

✅ Project could lower rates and cut emissions in New England

 

Maine's highest court on Tuesday breathed new life into a $1-billion US transmission line that aims to serve as conduit for Canadian hydropower, after construction starts drew scrutiny, ruling that a statewide vote rebuking the project was unconstitutional.

The Supreme Judicial Court ruled that the retroactive nature of the referendum last year violated the project developer's constitutional rights, sending it back to a lower court for further proceedings.

The court did not rule in a separate case that focuses on a lease for a 1.6-kilometre portion of the proposed power line that crosses state land.

Central Maine Power's parent company and Hydro-Québec teamed up on the project that would supply up to 1,200 megawatts of Canadian hydropower, amid the ongoing Maine-Quebec corridor debate in the region. That's enough electricity for one million homes.

Most of the proposed 233-kilometre power transmission line would be built along existing corridors, but a new 85-kilometre section was needed to reach the Canadian border, echoing debates around the Northern Pass clash in New Hampshire.

Workers were already clearing trees and setting poles when the governor asked for work to be suspended after the referendum in November 2021, mirroring New Hampshire's earlier rejection of a Quebec-Massachusetts proposal that rerouted regional plans. The Maine Department of Environmental Protection later suspended its permit, but that could be reversed depending on the outcome of legal proceedings.

The high court was asked to weigh in on two separate lawsuits. Developers sought to declare the referendum unconstitutional while another lawsuit focused on a lease allowing transmission lines to cross a short segment of state-owned land.

Supporters say bold projects such as this one, funded by ratepayers in Massachusetts, are necessary to battle climate change and introduce additional electricity into a region that's heavily reliant on natural gas, which can cause spikes in energy costs, as seen with Nova Scotia rate increases recently across the Atlantic region.

Critics say the project's environmental benefits are overstated — and that it would harm the woodlands in western Maine.

It was the second time the Supreme Judicial Court was asked to weigh in on a referendum aimed at killing the project. The first referendum proposal never made it onto the ballot after the court raised constitutional concerns.

Although the project is funded by Massachusetts ratepayers, the introduction of so much electricity to the grid would serve to stabilize or reduce electricity rates for all consumers, proponents contend, even as Manitoba Hydro rate hikes face opposition elsewhere.

The referendum on the project was the costliest in Maine history, topping $90 million US and underscoring deep divisions.

The high-stakes campaign put environmental and conservation groups at odds, and pitted utilities backing the project, amid the Hydro One-Avista backlash, against operators of fossil fuel-powered plants that stand to lose money.

 

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Hydro One Q2 profit plunges 23% as electricity revenue falls, costs rise

Hydro One Q2 Earnings show lower net income and EPS as mild weather curbed electricity demand; revenue missed Refinitiv estimates, while tree-trimming costs rose and the dividend remained unchanged for Ontario's grid operator.

 

Key Points

Hydro One Q2 earnings fell to $155M, EPS $0.26, revenue $1.41B; costs rose, demand eased, dividend held at $0.2415.

✅ Net income $155M; EPS $0.26 vs $0.34 prior year

✅ Revenue $1.41B; missed $1.44B estimate

✅ Dividend steady at $0.2415 per share

 

Hydro One Ltd.'s (H.TO 0.25%) second-quarter profit fell by nearly 23 per cent from last year to $155 million as the electricity utility reported spending more on tree-trimming work due to milder temperatures that also saw customers using less power, notwithstanding other periods where a one-time court ruling gain shaped quarterly results.

The Toronto-based company - which operates most of Ontario's power grid - and whose regulated rates are subject to an OEB decision, says its net earnings attributable to shareholders dropped to 26 cents per share from 34 cents per share when Hydro One had $200 million in net income.

Adjusted net income was also 26 cents per share, down from 33 cents per diluted share in the second quarter of 2018, while executive pay, including the CEO salary, drew public scrutiny during the period.

Revenue was $1.41 billion, down from $1.48 billion, while revenue net of purchased power was $760 million, down from $803 million, and across the sector, Manitoba Hydro's debt has surged as well.

Separately, Ontario introduced a subsidized hydro plan and tax breaks to support economic recovery from COVID-19, which could influence consumption patterns.

Analysts had estimated $1.44 billion of revenue and 27 cents per share of adjusted income, and some investors cite too many unknowns in evaluating the stock, according to financial markets data firm Refinitiv.

The publicly traded company, which saw a share-price drop after leadership changes and of which the Ontario government is the largest shareholder, says its quarterly dividend will remain at 24.15 cents per share for its next payment to shareholders in September.

 

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Trudeau vows to regulate oil and gas emissions, electric car sales

Canada Oil and Gas Emissions Cap sets five-year targets to cut sector emissions toward net-zero by 2050, alongside an EV mandate, carbon pricing signals, and support for carbon capture, clean energy jobs, climate policy.

 

Key Points

A federal policy to regulate and reduce oil and gas emissions via 5-year targets, reaching net-zero by 2050.

✅ Regulated 5-year milestones to cut oil and gas emissions to net-zero by 2050

✅ Interim EV mandate: 50% by 2030; 100% zero-emission sales by 2035

✅ $2B fund for clean energy jobs in oil- and gas-reliant communities

 

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau vowed to regulate total emissions from Canada’s oil and gas producers as he laid out his first major climate change promises of the campaign Sunday, a plan that was welcomed by several environmental and climate organizations.

Trudeau said that if re-elected, the Liberals will set out regulated five-year targets for emissions from oil and gas production to get them to net-zero emissions by 2050, a goal that, according to an IEA report will require more electricity, but also create a $2 billion fund to create jobs in oil and gas-reliant communities in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador.

“Let’s be realistic, over a quarter of Canada’s emissions come from our oil and gas sector. We need the leadership of these industries to decarbonize our country,” Trudeau said.

“That’s why we’ll make sure oil and gas emissions don’t increase and instead go down with achievable milestones,” while ensuring local economies can prosper.“

The Liberals are also introducing an interim electric vehicle mandate, which will require half the cars sold in Canada to be zero-emission by 2030, and because cleaning up electricity is critical to meeting climate pledges, the policy pairs with power-sector decarbonization, ahead of the final mandated target of 100 per cent by 2035.

Trudeau spoke in Cambridge, Ont., where protesters once again made an appearance amid a visible police presence. Officers carried one woman off the property when she refused to leave when asked.

Trudeau alluded to the protesters and their actions, which included sounding sirens and chanting expletives, as he defended his government’s record on climate change including progress in the electricity sector nationally, and touted its new plan.

“Sirens in the background may remind us that this is a climate emergency. That’s why we will move faster and be bolder,” he said.

Canada’s largest oilsands producers have already committed to reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but the policy proposed Sunday “calls the oil companies’ bluff” by making those goals a legislated requirement, said Keith Stewart, senior energy strategist with Greenpeace Canada.

The new timeline for electric vehicles also “sends a clear signal to auto companies to get cracking (and build them here),” he said on Twitter, even as proposals like a fully renewable grid by 2030 are debated today. “We’d like to see this happen faster but the shift away from voluntary targets to requirements is big.”


Merran Smith, executive director of Clean Energy Canada, a climate program at Simon Fraser University, said clean electricity, clean transportation and “phasing out oil and gas with accountable milestones” must be key priorities over the next decade, aligning with Canada’s race to net-zero and the role of renewable energy.

“Today’s announcement, which checks all of these boxes, is not just good ambition_it’s good policy. Policy that will drive down carbon pollution and drive up clean job growth and economic competitiveness. It is policy that will drive Canada forward with cleaner cars, power Canada with clean electricity, and invest in businesses that will last such as battery manufacturing, electric vehicle manufacturing and low carbon steel,” Smith said in an email.

Michael Bernstein, executive director of the climate policy organization Clean Prosperity, said the promises laid out Sunday offer a “strong boost” to the federal government’s previous climate commitments.

He said the organization prefers market incentives such as carbon pricing, that spur innovation over further regulation. But since the largest oilsands companies have already committed to reaching net-zero emissions, he said the newly unveiled policy could provide some support.

“ First, I would encourage the Liberal Party to release independent modelling showing the types of emissions reductions they expect to achieve with their new package of policies. Second, many policies are referred to in general terms so I hope the Liberal Party will provide further details in the coming days,” he said.

“Finally, the document does not specifically mention carbon capture or carbon dioxide removal technologies but both technologies will be critical to achieve some of the pledges in today’s announcement, especially reaching net-zero emissions in the oil a gas sector.”

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh painted the announcement as the latest in a string of “empty promises” from the Liberals on climate change, saying Canada has the highest increase in greenhouse gas emissions among all G7 countries, and that provinces like B.C. risk missing 2050 targets as well, he argued.

“Climate targets mean nothing when you don’t act on them. We can’t afford more of Justin Trudeau’s empty words on climate change,” he said in a statement.

The Trudeau Liberals submitted new targets to the United Nations in July, promising that Canada will curb emissions by 40 to 45 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030, building on the net-zero by 2050 plan announced earlier, officials say.

 

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'Unlayering' peak demand could accelerate energy storage adoption

Duration Portfolio Energy Storage aligns layered peak demand with right-sized batteries, enabling peak shaving, gas peaker replacement, and solar-plus-storage synergy while improving grid flexibility, reliability, and T&D deferral through two- to four-hour battery durations.

 

Key Points

An approach that layers battery durations to match peaks, cut costs, replace peakers, and boost grid reliability.

✅ Layers 2- to 4-hour batteries by peak duration

✅ Enables solar-plus-storage and peak shaving

✅ Cuts T&D upgrades, emissions, and fuel costs

 

The debate over energy storage replacing gas-fired peakers has raged for years, but a new approach that shifts the terms of the argument could lead to an acceleration of storage deployments.

Rather than looking at peak demand as a single mountainous peak, some analysts now advocate a layered approach that allows energy storage to better match peak needs and complement ongoing efforts to improve solar and wind power across the grid.

"You don’t have to have batteries that run to infinity."

Some developers of solar-plus-storage projects, bolstered by cheap batteries, say they can already compete head-to-head with gas-fired peakers. "I can beat a gas peaker anywhere in the country today with a solar-plus-storage power plant," Tom Buttgenbach, president and CEO of developer 8minutenergy Renewables, recently told S&P Global.

Customers are very busy these days and rebate programs need to fit the speed of their life. Participation should be quick, easy, and accessible anywhere.

Others disagree. Storage is not disruptive for generation, but will be disruptive for transmission and distribution, Kris Zadlo, executive vice president and chief development officer at Invenergy, told the audience at a Bloomberg New Energy Finance conference last spring. Invenergy, like many renewable power developers, develops generation, energy storage and transmission projects.

But there is another path that avoids the pitfalls of positions on either end of the all-or-none approach. "Do the analysis of the need itself," Ray Hohenstein, market applications director at Fluence, told Utility Dive. If the need is only two hours in duration, it may be best served by a two-hour battery. "You don’t have to have batteries that run to infinity."

 

Storage vs. fossil fuel peakers

Energy storage has several benefits over traditional fossil fuel peaking plants, Hohenstein said. It is instantaneous, it has no emissions and requires no fuel, and has limited infrastructure needs. It can also help the grid absorb higher levels of renewable generation by soaking up excess output, such as solar power at noon, and many planned storage additions will be paired with solar in the next few years. But the one thing energy storage cannot do, he said, is provide limitless energy.

So, instead of looking at replacing an individual peaker, Hohenstein advocated a "duration portfolio" approach that uses energy storage to shave peak load.

If the need is for 150 MW of resources that will never need to run for more than two hours at a time, then a battery is "quite cheap," significantly less than a four or eight-hour battery, said Hohenstein. "If you fill up your peak by duration layer, it could be more cost effective."

 

NREL research driver

Fluence’s approach is informed by research by Paul Denholm and Robert Margolis at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), released last spring.

The NREL researchers looked at the California market where they said 11 GW of fossil fuel capacity is expected to be retired by 2029 because of new once-through-cooling requirements that are taking effect. A lot of that capacity is peaking capacity and, according to NREL’s analysis, a large fraction could be replaced with four-hour energy storage, assuming continued storage cost reductions and growth in solar installations.

The key in NREL’s research was the level of solar power penetration. There is a "synergistic" relationship between solar penetration and storage deployment, the researchers wrote, and other studies suggest wind and solar could meet 80% of U.S. demand as these trends continue.

 

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