Aging nukes, coal plants squeeze Ontario power

Ontario Nuclear Power Transition weighs aging reactors at Darlington and Pickering, AECL uncertainty, coal phase-out, costly renewables, 5.5 cents per kWh wholesale prices, decade-long builds, conservation, and demand forecasts shaping grid reliability and capacity planning.

The generators that churn out Ontario's electricity face a double-barreled challenge: A challenge of age, and a challenger of policy.

The challenge of age: The nuclear generators that crank out more than half the electricity used in the province are getting old.

Darlington – the newest station in the province – is middle-aged, and due for an extensive and expensive refit guided by a life-extension plan now in development.

Pickering – the oldest – is deemed no longer worth refurbishing. It can last for perhaps another decade before being mothballed under OPG's 10-year plan now on the books.

Pickering's lost output will be replaced by two new nuclear units to be built at Darlington, though a coalition has urged replacing Pickering with green power instead. That process is likely to take a decade, and has already potholes.

Initial bids to build the plants came in billions higher than forecast, however. Then the federal government put Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd.'s future in limbo by putting it up for sale.

As the nuclear plants age, Ontario's Liberal government has made a policy decision that knocks another hole in the electricity supply.

The province says it will shut down all the province's coal-burning generating stations by 2014.

The plan is to replace the dirty coal power with clean, green energy from renewable sources, or to damp down demand so some if it doesn't have to be replaced at all.

The problem with that is the cost of green power for ratepayers.

Even in the midst of this year's hot, steamy summer, the price of conventional power on Ontario's wholesale market has averaged about 5.5 cents a kilowatt hour.

Prices being offered for renewable power are nearly triple that, or more.

There's one further problem, one of forecasting. Planners have over-estimated the demand for power in the past. As the economy evolves and conservation programs kick in, the demand for power – and for new generators – could shrink significantly, as weather swings such as a cool summer that cools the nuclear debate reduce peaks.

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