Aging nukes, coal plants squeeze Ontario power

The challenge of age: The nuclear generators that crank out more than half the electricity used in the province are getting old.

Darlington – the newest station in the province – is middle-aged, and due for an extensive and expensive refit.

Pickering – the oldest – is deemed no longer worth refurbishing. It can last for perhaps another decade before being mothballed.

Pickering's lost output will be replaced by two new nuclear units to be built at Darlington. That process is likely to take a decade, and has already potholes.

Initial bids to build the plants came in billions higher than forecast, however. Then the federal government put Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd.'s future in limbo by putting it up for sale.

As the nuclear plants age, Ontario's Liberal government has made a policy decision that knocks another hole in the electricity supply.

The province says it will shut down all the province's coal-burning generating stations by 2014.

The plan is to replace the dirty coal power with clean, green energy from renewable sources, or to damp down demand so some if it doesn't have to be replaced at all.

The problem with that is cost.

Even in the midst of this year's hot, steamy summer, the price of conventional power on Ontario's wholesale market has averaged about 5.5 cents a kilowatt hour.

Prices being offered for renewable power are nearly triple that, or more.

There's one further problem, one of forecasting. Planners have over-estimated the demand for power in the past. As the economy evolves and conservation programs kick in, the demand for power – and for new generators – could shrink significantly.