Ontario's electric debacle: Liberal leadership candidates on how they'd fix power


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Ontario Electricity Policy debates rates, subsidies, renewables, nuclear baseload, and Quebec hydro imports, highlighting grid transmission limits, community consultation, conservation, and the province's energy mix after cancelled wind projects and rising costs to taxpayers.

 

Key Points

Ontario Electricity Policy guides rates, generation, grid planning, subsidies and imports for reliable, low-cost power.

✅ Focuses on rates, subsidies, and consumer affordability

✅ Balances nuclear baseload, renewables, and Quebec hydro imports

✅ Emphasizes grid transmission, consultation, and conservation

 

When Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals went down to defeat at the hands of Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives, Ontario electricity had a lot to do with it. That was in 2018. Now, two years later, Ford’s government has electricity issues of its own, including a new stance on wind power that continues to draw scrutiny.

Electricity is politically fraught in Ontario. It’s among the most expensive in Canada. And it has been mismanaged at least as far back as nuclear energy cost overruns starting in the 1980s.

From the start Wynne’s government was tainted by the gas plant scandal of her predecessor Dalton McGuinty and then she created her own with the botched roll-out of her green energy plan. And that helped Ford get elected promising to lower electricity prices. But, rates haven’t gone down under Ford while the cost to the government coffers for subsidizing them have soared - now costing $5.6 billion a year.

Meanwhile, Ford’s government has spent at least $230 million to tear up green energy contracts signed by the former Liberal government, including two wind-farm projects that were already mid-construction.

Lessons learned?
In the final part of a three-part series, the six candidates vying to become the next leader of the Ontario Liberals discuss the province's electricity system, including the lessons learned from the prior Liberal government's botched attempts to fix it that led to widespread local opposition to a string of wind power projects, and whether they'd agree to import more hydroelectricity from Quebec.

“We had the right idea but didn’t stick the landing,” said Steven Del Duca, a member of the former Wynne government who lost his Vaughan-area seat in 2018, referring to its green-energy plan. “We need to make sure that we work more collaboratively with local communities to gain the buy-in needed to be successful in this regard.”

“Consultation and listening is key,” agreed Mitzie Hunter, who was education minister under Kathleen Wynne and in 2018 retained her seat in the legislature representing Scarborough-Guildwood. “We must seek input from community members about investments locally,” she said. “Inviting experts in to advise on major policy is also important to make evidence-based decisions."

Michael Coteau, MPP for Don Valley East and the third leadership candidate who was a member of the former government, called for “a new relationship of respect and collaboration with municipalities.”

He said there is an “important balance to be achieved between pursuing province wide objectives for green-energy initiatives and recognizing and reflecting unique local conditions and circumstances.”

Kate Graham, who has worked in municipal public service and has not held a provincial public office, said that experts and local communities are best placed to shape decisions in the sector.

In the final part of a three-part series, Ontario's Liberal leadership contenders discuss electricity, lessons learned from the bungled rollout of previous Liberal green policy, and whether to lean more on Quebec's hydroelectricity.
“What's gotten Ontario in trouble in the past is when Queen's Park politicians are the ones micromanaging the electricity file,” she said.

“Community consultation is vitally important to the long-term success of infrastructure projects,” said Alvin Tedjo, a former policy adviser to Liberal ministers Brad Duguid and Glen Murray.

“Community voices must be heard and listened to when large-scale energy programs are going to be implemented,” agreed Brenda Hollingsworth, a personal injury lawyer making her first foray into politics.

Of the six candidates, only Coteau went beyond reflection to suggest a path forward, saying he would review the distribution of responsibilities between the province and municipalities, with the aim of empowering cities and towns.

Turn back to Quebec?
Ford’s government has also turned away from a deal signed in 2016 to import hydroelectricity from Quebec.

Graham and Hunter both said they would consider increasing such imports. Hunter noted that the deal, which would displace domestic natural gas production, will lower the cost of electricity paid by Ontario ratepayers by a net total of $38 million from 2017 to 2023, according to the province’s fiscal watchdog.

“I am open to working with our neighbouring province,” Hunter said. “This is especially important as we seek to bring electricity to remote northern, on-reserve Indigenous communities.”

Tedjo said he has no issues with importing clean energy as long as it’s at a fair price.

Hollingsworth and Coteau both said they would withhold judgment until they could see the province’s capacity status in 2022.

“In evaluating the case for increasing importation of water power from Quebec, we must realistically assess the limitations of the existing transmission system and the cost and time required to scale up transmission infrastructure, among other factors,” Coteau said.

Del Duca also took a wait-and-see approach. “This will depend on our energy needs and energy mix,” he said. “I want to see our energy needs go down; we need more efficiency and better conservation to make that happen.”

What's the right energy mix?
Nuclear energy currently accounts for about a third of Ontario’s energy-producing capacity, even as Canada explores zero-emissions electricity by 2035 pathways. But it actually supplies about 60 percent of Ontario’s electricity. That is because nuclear reactors are always on, producing so-called baseload power.

Hydroelectricity provides another 25 percent of supply, while oil and natural gas contribute 6 per cent and wind adds 7 percent. Both solar and biofuels account for less than one percent of Ontario’s energy supply. However, a much larger amount of solar is not counted in this tally, as it is used at or near the sites where it is generated, and never enters the transmission system.

Asked for their views on how large a role various sources of power should play in Ontario’s electricity mix in the future, the candidates largely backed the idea of renewable energy, but offered little specifics.

Graham repeated her statement that experts and communities should drive that conversation. Tedjo said all non-polluting technologies should play a role in Ontario’s energy mix, as provinces like Alberta demonstrate parallel growth in green energy and fossil fuels. Coteau said we need a mix of renewable-energy sources, without offering specifics.

“We also need to pursue carbon capture and sequestration, working in particular with our farming communities,” he added.

 

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Nigeria's Electricity Crisis

Nigeria Electricity Crisis undermines energy access as aging grid, limited generation, and transmission losses cause power outages, raising costs for businesses and public services; renewables, microgrids, and investment offer resilient, inclusive solutions.

 

Key Points

A nationwide power gap from weak infrastructure, low generation, and grid losses that disrupt services and growth.

✅ Aging grid and underinvestment drive frequent power outages

✅ Businesses face higher costs, lost productivity, weak competitiveness

✅ Renewables, microgrids, and regulatory reform can expand access

 

In Nigeria, millions of residents face persistent challenges with access to reliable electricity, a crisis that has profound implications for businesses, public services, and overall socio-economic development. This article explores the root causes of Nigeria's electricity deficit, drawing on 2021 electricity lessons to inform analysis, its impact on various sectors, and potential solutions to alleviate this pressing issue.

Challenges with Electricity Access

The issue of inadequate electricity access in Nigeria is multifaceted. The country's electricity generation capacity falls short of demand due to aging infrastructure, inadequate maintenance, and insufficient investment in power generation and distribution, a dynamic echoed when green energy supply constraints emerge elsewhere as well. As a result, many Nigerians, particularly in rural and underserved urban areas, experience frequent power outages or have limited access to electricity altogether.

Impact on Businesses

The unreliable electricity supply poses significant challenges to businesses across Nigeria. Manufacturing industries, small enterprises, and commercial establishments rely heavily on electricity to operate machinery, maintain refrigeration for perishable goods, and power essential services. Persistent power outages disrupt production schedules, increase operational costs, and, as grids prepare for new loads from electric vehicle adoption worldwide, hinder business growth and competitiveness in both domestic and international markets.

Public Services Strain

Public services, including healthcare facilities, schools, and government offices, also grapple with the consequences of Nigeria's electricity crisis. Hospitals rely on electricity to power life-saving medical equipment, maintain proper sanitation, and ensure patient comfort. Educational institutions require electricity for lighting, technological resources, and administrative functions. Without reliable power, the delivery of essential public services is compromised, impacting the quality of education, healthcare outcomes, and overall public welfare.

Socio-economic Impact

The electricity deficit in Nigeria exacerbates socio-economic disparities and hampers poverty alleviation efforts, even as debates continue over whether access alone reduces poverty in every context. Lack of access to electricity limits economic opportunities, stifles entrepreneurship, and perpetuates income inequality. Rural communities, where access to electricity is particularly limited, face greater challenges in accessing educational resources, healthcare services, and economic opportunities compared to urban counterparts.

Government Initiatives and Challenges

The Nigerian government has implemented various initiatives to address the electricity crisis, including privatization of the power sector, investment in renewable energy projects, and regulatory reforms aimed at improving efficiency and accountability, while examples like India's village electrification illustrate rapid expansion potential too. However, progress has been slow, and challenges such as corruption, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and inadequate funding continue to impede efforts to expand electricity access nationwide.

Community Resilience and Adaptation

Despite these challenges, communities and businesses in Nigeria demonstrate resilience and adaptability in navigating the electricity crisis. Some businesses invest in alternative power sources such as generators, solar panels, or hybrid systems to mitigate the impact of power outages, while utilities weigh shifts signaled by EVs' impact on utilities for future planning. Community-led initiatives, including local cooperatives and microgrids, provide decentralized electricity solutions in underserved areas, promoting self-sufficiency and resilience.

Path Forward

Addressing Nigeria's electricity crisis requires a concerted effort from government, private sector stakeholders, and international partners, informed by UK grid transformation experience as well. Key priorities include increasing investment in power infrastructure, enhancing regulatory frameworks to attract private sector participation, and promoting renewable energy deployment. Improving energy efficiency, reducing transmission losses, and expanding electricity access to underserved communities are critical steps towards achieving sustainable development goals and improving quality of life for all Nigerians.

Conclusion

The electricity crisis in Nigeria poses significant challenges to businesses, public services, and socio-economic development. Addressing these challenges requires comprehensive strategies that prioritize infrastructure investment, regulatory reform, and community empowerment. By working together to expand electricity access and promote sustainable energy solutions, Nigeria can unlock its full economic potential, improve living standards, and create opportunities for prosperity and growth across the country.

 

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Alberta Introduces New Electricity Rules

Alberta Rate of Last Resort streamlines electricity regulations to stabilize the default rate, curb price volatility, and protect rural communities, low-income households, and seniors while preserving competition in the province's energy market.

 

Key Points

Alberta's Rate of Last Resort sets biennial default electricity prices, curbing volatility and protecting customers.

✅ Biennial default rate to limit price spikes

✅ Focus on rural, senior, and low-income customers

✅ Encourages competitive contracts and market stability

 

The Alberta government is overhauling its electricity regulations as part of a market overhaul aimed at reducing spikes in electricity prices for consumers and businesses. The new rules, set to be introduced this spring, are intended to stabilize the default electricity rate paid by many Albertans.


Background on the Rate of Last Resort

Albertans currently have the option to sign up for competitive contracts with electricity providers. These contracts can sometimes offer lower rates than the default electricity rate, officially known as the Regulated Rate Option (RRO). However, these competitive rates can fluctuate significantly. Currently, those unable to secure these contracts or those who are on the default rate are experiencing rising electricity prices and high levels of price volatility.

To address this, the Alberta government is renaming the default rate as the Rate of Last Resort designation (RoLR) under the new framework. This aims to reduce the sense of security that some consumers might associate with the current name, which the government feels is misleading.


Key Changes Under New Regulations

The new regulations, which include proposed market changes that affect pricing, focus on:

  • Price Stabilization: Default electricity rates will be set every two years for each utility provider, providing greater predictability by enabling a consumer price cap and reducing the potential for extreme price swings.
  • Rural and Underserved Communities: The changes are intended to particularly benefit rural Albertans and those on the default rate, including low-income individuals and seniors. These groups often lack access to the competitive rates offered by some providers and have been disproportionately affected by recent price increases.
  • Promoting Economic Stability: The goal is to lower the cost of utilities for all Albertans, leading to overall lower costs of living and doing business. The government anticipates these changes will create a more attractive environment for investment and job creation.


Opposition Views

Critics argue that limiting the flexibility of prices for the default electricity rate could interfere with market dynamics and stifle market competition among providers. Some worry it could ultimately lead to higher prices in the long term. Others advocate directly subsidizing low-income households rather than introducing broad price controls.


Balancing Affordability and the Market

The Alberta government maintains that the proposed changes will strike a balance between ensuring affordable electricity for vulnerable Albertans and preserving a competitive energy market. Provincial officials emphasize that the new regulations should not deter consumers from seeking out competitive rates if they choose to.


The Path Ahead

The new electricity regulations are part of the Alberta government's broader Affordable Utilities Program, alongside electricity policy changes across the province. The legislation is expected to be introduced and debated in the provincial legislature this spring with the potential of coming into effect later in the year. Experts expect these changes will significantly impact the Alberta electricity market and ignite further discussion about how best to manage rising utility costs for consumers and businesses.

 

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Opinion: Cleaning Up Ontario's Hydro Mess - Ford government needs to scrap the Fair Hydro Plan and review all options

Ontario Hydro Crisis highlights soaring electricity rates, costly subsidies, nuclear refurbishments, and stalled renewables in Ontario. Policy missteps, weak planning, and rising natural gas emissions burden ratepayers while energy efficiency and storage remain underused.

 

Key Points

High power costs and subsidies from policy errors, nuclear refurbishments, stalled efficiency and renewables in Ontario.

✅ $5.6B yearly subsidy masks electricity rates and deficits

✅ Nuclear refurbishments embed rising costs for decades

✅ Efficiency, storage, and DERs stalled amid weak planning

 

By Mark Winfield

While the troubled Site C and Muskrat Falls hydroelectric dam projects in B.C. and Newfoundland and Labrador have drawn a great deal of national attention over the past few months, Ontario has quietly been having a hydro crisis of its own.

One of the central promises in the 2018 platform of the Ontario Progressive Conservative party was to “clean up the hydro mess,” and then-PC leader Doug Ford vowed to fire Hydro One's leadership as part of that effort. There certainly is a mess, with the costs of subsidies taken from general provincial revenues to artificially lower hydro rates nearing $7 billion annually. That is a level approaching the province’s total pre-COVID-19 annual deficit. After only two years, that will also exceed total expected cost overruns of the Site C and Muskrat Falls projects, currently estimated at $12 billion ($6 billion each).

There is no doubt that Doug Ford’s government inherited a significant mess around the province’s electricity system from the previous Liberal governments of former premiers Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne. But the Ford government has also demonstrated a remarkable capacity for undoing the things its predecessors had managed to get right while doubling down on their mistakes.

The Liberals did have some significant achievements. Most notably: coal-fired electricity generation, which constituted 25 per cent of the province’s electricity supply in the early 2000s, was phased out in 2014. The phaseout dramatically improved air quality in the province. There was also a significant growth in renewable energy production. From  virtually zero in 2003, the province installed 4,500 MW of wind-powered generation, and 450 MW of solar photovoltaic by 2018, a total capacity more than double that of the Sir Adam Beck Generating Stations at Niagara Falls.

At the same time, public concerns over rising hydro rates flowing from a major reconstruction of the province’s electricity system from 2003 onwards became a central political issue in the province. But rather than reconsider the role of the key drivers of the continuing rate increases – namely the massively expensive and risky refurbishments of the Darlington and Bruce nuclear facilities, the Liberals adopted a financially ruinous Fair Hydro Plan. The central feature of the 2017 plan was a short-term 25 per cent reduction in hydro rates, financed by removing the provincial portion of the HST from hydro bills, and by extending the amortization period for capital projects within the system. The total cost of the plan in terms of lost revenues and financing costs has been estimated in excess of $40 billion over 29 years, with the burden largely falling on future ratepayers and taxpayers.


Decision-making around the electricity system became deeply politicized, and a secret cabinet forecast of soaring prices intensified public debate across Ontario. Legislation adopted by the Wynne government in 2016 eliminated the requirement for the development of system plans to be subject to any form of meaningful regulatory oversight or review. Instead, the system was guided through directives from the provincial cabinet. Major investments like the Darlington and Bruce refurbishments proceeded without meaningful, public, external reviews of their feasibility, costs or alternatives.

The Ford government proceeded to add more layers to these troubles. The province’s relatively comprehensive framework for energy efficiency was effectively dismantled in March, 2019, with little meaningful replacement. That was despite strong evidence that energy efficiency offered the most cost-effective strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and electricity costs.

The Ford government basically retained the Fair Hydro Plan and promised further rate reductions, later tabling legislation to lower electricity rates as well. To its credit, the government did take steps to clarify real costs of the plan. Last year, these were revealed to amount to a de facto $5.6 billion-per-year subsidy coming from general revenues, and rising. That constituted the major portion of the province’s $7.4 billion pre-COVID-19 deficit. The financial hole was deepened further through November’s financial statement, with the addition of a further $1.3 billion subsidy to commercial and industrial consumers. The numbers can only get worse as the costs of the Darlington and Bruce refurbishments become embedded more fully into electricity rates.

The government also quietly dispensed with the last public vestige of an energy planning framework, relieving itself of the requirement to produce a Long-Term Energy Plan every three years. The next plan would normally have been due next month, in February.

Even the gains from the 2014 phaseout of coal-fired electricity are at risk. Major increases are projected in emissions of greenhouse gases, smog-causing nitrogen oxides and particulate matter from natural gas-fired power plants as the plants are run to cover electricity needs during the Bruce and Darlington refurbishments over the next decade. These developments could erode as much as 40 per cent of the improvements in air quality and greenhouse gas emission gained through the coal phaseout.

The province’s activities around renewable energy, energy storage and distributed energy resources are at a standstill, with exception of a few experimental “sandbox” projects, while other jurisdictions face profound electricity-sector change and adapt. Globally, these technologies are seen as the leading edge of energy-system development and decarbonization. Ontario seems to have chosen to make itself an energy innovation wasteland instead.

The overall result is a system with little or no space for innovation that is embedding ever-higher costs while trying to disguise those costs at enormous expense to the provincial treasury and still failing to provide effective relief to low-income electricity consumers.

The decline in electricity demand associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, along with the introduction of a temporary recovery rate for electricity, gives the province an opportunity to step back and consider its next steps with the electricity system. A phaseout of the Fair Hydro Plan electricity-rate reduction and its replacement with a more cost-effective strategy of targeted relief aimed at those most heavily burdened by rising hydro rates, particularly rural and low-income consumers, as reconnection efforts for nonpayment have underscored the hardship faced by many households, would be a good place to start.

Next, the province needs to conduct a comprehensive, public review of electricity options available to it, including additional renewables – the costs of which have fallen dramatically over the past decade – distributed energy resources, hydro imports from Quebec and energy efficiency before proceeding with further nuclear refurbishments.

In the longer term, a transparent, evidence-based process for electricity system planning needs to be established – one that is subject to substantive public and regulatory oversight and review. Finally, the province needs to establish a new organization to be called Energy Efficiency Ontario to revive its efforts around energy efficiency, developing a comprehensive energy-efficiency strategy for the province, covering electricity and natural gas use, and addressing the needs of marginalized communities.

Without these kinds of steps, the province seems destined to continue to lurch from contradictory decision after contradictory decision as the economic and environmental costs of the system’s existing trajectory continue to rise.

Mark Winfield is a professor of environmental studies at York University and co-chair of the university’s Sustainable Energy Initiative.

 

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TotalEnergies to Acquire German Renewables Developer VSB for US$1.65 Billion

TotalEnergies VSB Acquisition accelerates renewable energy growth, expanding wind and solar portfolios across Germany and Europe, advancing decarbonization, net-zero targets, and the energy transition through a US$1.65 billion strategic clean power investment.

 

Key Points

A US$1.65B deal: TotalEnergies acquires VSB to scale wind and solar in Europe and advance net-zero goals.

✅ US$1.65B purchase expands wind and solar pipeline

✅ Strengthens presence in Germany and wider Europe

✅ Advances net-zero, energy transition objectives

 

In a major move to expand its renewable energy portfolio, French energy giant TotalEnergies has announced its decision to acquire German renewable energy developer VSB for US$1.65 billion. This acquisition represents a significant step in TotalEnergies' strategy to accelerate its transition from fossil fuels to greener energy sources, aligning with the global push towards sustainability and carbon reduction, as reflected in Europe's green surge across key markets.

Strengthening TotalEnergies’ Renewable Energy Portfolio

TotalEnergies has long been one of the largest players in the global energy market, historically known for its oil and gas operations. However, in recent years, the company has made a concerted effort to diversify its portfolio and shift its focus toward renewable energy. The purchase of VSB, a leading developer of wind and solar energy projects, occurs amid rising European wind investment trends and is a clear reflection of TotalEnergies' commitment to this green energy transition.

VSB, based in Dresden, Germany, specializes in the development, construction, and operation of renewable energy projects, particularly wind and solar power. The company has a significant presence in Europe, with a growing portfolio of projects in countries like Germany, where clean energy accounts for 50% of electricity today, Poland, and the Czech Republic. The acquisition will allow TotalEnergies to bolster its renewable energy capacity, particularly in the wind and solar sectors, which are key components of its long-term sustainability goals.

By acquiring VSB, TotalEnergies is not only increasing its renewable energy output but also gaining access to a highly experienced team with a proven track record in energy project development. This move is expected to expedite TotalEnergies’ renewable energy ambitions, enabling the company to build on VSB’s strong market presence and established partnerships across Europe.

VSB’s Strategic Role in the Energy Transition

VSB’s expertise in the renewable energy sector makes it a valuable addition to TotalEnergies' green energy strategy. The company has been at the forefront of the energy transition in Europe, particularly in wind energy development, as offshore wind is set to become a $1 trillion business over the coming decades. Over the years, VSB has completed numerous large-scale wind projects, including both onshore and offshore installations.

The acquisition also positions TotalEnergies to better compete in the rapidly growing European renewable energy market, including the UK, where offshore wind is powering up alongside strong demand due to increased governmental focus on achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Germany, in particular, has set ambitious renewable energy targets as part of its Energiewende initiative, which aims to reduce the country’s carbon emissions and increase the share of renewables in its energy mix. By acquiring VSB, TotalEnergies is not only enhancing its capabilities in Germany but also gaining a foothold in other European markets where VSB has operations.

With Europe increasingly shifting toward wind and solar power as part of its decarbonization efforts, including emerging solutions like offshore green hydrogen that complement wind buildouts, VSB’s track record of developing large-scale, sustainable energy projects provides TotalEnergies with a strong competitive edge. The acquisition will further TotalEnergies' position as a leader in the renewable energy space, especially in wind and solar power generation.

Financial and Market Implications

The US$1.65 billion deal marks TotalEnergies' largest renewable energy acquisition in recent years and underscores the growing importance of green energy investments within the company’s broader business strategy. TotalEnergies plans to use this acquisition to scale up its renewable energy assets and move closer to its target of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The deal also positions TotalEnergies to capitalize on the expected growth of renewable energy across Europe, particularly in countries with aggressive renewable energy targets and incentives.

The transaction is also expected to boost TotalEnergies’ presence in the global renewable energy market. As the world increasingly turns to wind, solar, and other sustainable energy sources, TotalEnergies is positioning itself to be a major player in the global energy transition. The acquisition of VSB complements TotalEnergies' previous investments in renewable energy and further aligns its portfolio with international sustainability trends.

From a financial standpoint, TotalEnergies’ purchase of VSB reflects the growing trend of large energy companies investing heavily in renewable energy. With wind and solar power becoming more economically competitive with fossil fuels, this investment is seen as a prudent long-term strategy, one that is likely to yield strong returns as demand for clean energy continues to rise.

Looking Ahead: TotalEnergies' Green Transition

TotalEnergies' acquisition of VSB is part of the company’s broader strategy to diversify its energy offerings and shift away from its traditional reliance on oil and gas. The company has already made significant strides in renewable energy, with investments in solar, wind, and battery storage projects across the globe, as developments like France's largest battery storage platform underline this momentum. The VSB acquisition will only accelerate these efforts, positioning TotalEnergies as one of the foremost leaders in the clean energy revolution.

By 2030, TotalEnergies plans to allocate more than 25% of its total capital expenditure to renewable energies and electricity. The company has already set ambitious goals to reduce its carbon footprint and shift its business model to align with the global drive toward sustainability. The integration of VSB into TotalEnergies’ portfolio signals a firm commitment to these goals, ensuring the company remains at the forefront of the energy transition.

In conclusion, TotalEnergies’ purchase of VSB for US$1.65 billion marks a significant milestone in the company’s renewable energy journey. By acquiring a company with deep expertise in wind and solar power development, TotalEnergies is taking decisive steps to strengthen its position in the renewable energy market and further its ambitions of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. This acquisition will not only enhance the company’s growth prospects but also contribute to the ongoing global shift toward clean, sustainable energy sources.

 

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Why subsidies for electric cars are a bad idea for Canada

EV Subsidies in Canada influence greenhouse-gas emissions based on electricity grid mix; in Ontario and Quebec they reduce pollution, while fossil-fuel grids blunt benefits. Compare costs per tonne with carbon tax and renewable energy policies.

 

Key Points

Government rebates for electric vehicles, whose emissions impact and cost-effectiveness depend on provincial grid mix.

✅ Impact varies by grid emissions; clean hydro-nuclear cuts CO2.

✅ MEI estimates up to $523 per tonne vs $50 carbon price.

✅ Best value: tax carbon; target renewables, efficiency, hybrids.

 

Bad ideas sometimes look better, and sell better, than good ones – as with the proclaimed electric-car revolution that policymakers tout today. Not always, or else Canada wouldn’t be the mostly well-run place that it is. But sometimes politicians embrace a less-than-best policy – because its attractive appearance may make it more likely to win the popularity contest, right now, even though it will fail in the long run.

The most seasoned political advisers know it. Pollsters too. Voters, in contrast, don’t know what they don’t know, which is why bad policy often triumphs. At first glance, the wrong sometimes looks like it must be right, while better and best give the appearance of being bad and worst.

This week, the Montreal Economic Institute put out a study on the costs and benefits of taxpayer subsidies for electric cars. They considered the logic of the huge amounts of money being offered to purchasers in the country’s two largest provinces. In Quebec, if you buy an electric vehicle, the government will give you up to $8,000; in Ontario, buying an electric car or truck entitles you to a cheque from the taxpayer of between $6,000 and $14,000. The subsidies are rich because the cars aren’t cheap.

Will putting more electric cars on the road lower greenhouse-gas emissions? Yes – in some provinces, where they can be better for the planet when the grid is clean. But it all depends on how a province generates electricity. In places like Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia and Nunavut territory, where most electricity comes from burning fossil fuels, an electric car may actually generate more greenhouse gases than one running on traditional gasoline. The tailpipe of an electric vehicle may not have any emissions. But quite a lot of emissions may have been generated to produce the power that went to the socket that charged it.

A few years ago, University of Toronto engineering professor Christopher Kennedy estimated that electric cars are only less polluting than the gasoline vehicles they replace when the local electrical grid produces a good chunk of its power from renewable sources – thereby lowering emissions to less than roughly 600 tonnes of CO2 per gigawatt hour.

Unfortunately, the electricity-generating systems in lots of places – from India to China to many American states – are well above that threshold. In those jurisdictions, an electric car will be powered in whole or in large part by electricity created from the burning of a fossil fuel, such as coal. As a result, that car, though carrying the green monicker of “electric,” is likely to be more polluting than a less costly model with an internal combustion or hybrid engine.

The same goes for the Canadian juridictions mentioned above. Their electricity is dirtier, so operating an electric car there won’t be very green. Alberta, for example, is aiming to generate 30 per cent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 – which means that the other 70 per cent of its electricity will still come from fossil fuels. (Today, the figure is even higher.) An Albertan trading in a gasoline car for an electric vehicle is making a statement – just not the one he or she likely has in mind.

In Ontario and Quebec, however, most electricity is generated from non-polluting sources, even though Canada still produced 18% from fossil fuels in 2019 overall. Nearly all of Quebec’s power comes from hydro, and more than 90 per cent of Ontario’s electricity is from zero-emission generation, mainly hydro and nuclear. British Columbia, Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador also produce the bulk of their electricity from hydro. Electric cars in those provinces, powered as they are by mostly clean electricity, should reduce emissions, relative to gas-powered cars.

But here’s the rub: Electric cars are currently expensive, and, as a recent survey shows, consequently not all that popular. Ontario and Quebec introduced those big subsidies in an attempt to get people to buy them. Those subsidies will surely put more electric cars on the road and in the driveways of (mostly wealthy) people. It will be a very visible policy – hey, look at all those electrics on the highway and at the mall!

However, that result will be achieved at great cost. According to the MEI, for Ontario to reach its goal of electrics constituting 5 per cent of new vehicles sold, the province will have to dish out up to $8.6-billion in subsidies over the next 13 years.

And the environmental benefits achieved? Again, according to the MEI estimate, that huge sum will lower the province’s greenhouse-gas emissions by just 2.4 per cent. If the MEI’s estimate is right, that’s far too many bucks for far too small an environmental bang.

Here’s another way to look at it: How much does it cost to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by other means? Well, B.C.’s current carbon tax is $30 a tonne, or a little less than 7 cents on a litre of gasoline. It has caused GHG emissions per unit of GDP to fall in small but meaningful ways, thanks to consumers and businesses making millions of little, unspectacular decisions to reduce their energy costs. The federal government wants all provinces to impose a cost equivalent to $50 a tonne – and every economic model says that extra cost will make a dent in greenhouse-gas emissions, though in ways that will not involve politicians getting to cut any ribbons or hold parades.

What’s the effective cost of Ontario’s subsidy for electric cars? The MEI pegs it at $523 per tonne. Yes, that subsidy will lower emissions. It just does so in what appears to be the most expensive and inefficient way possible, rather than the cheapest way, namely a simple, boring and mildly painful carbon tax.

Electric vehicles are an amazing technology. But they’ve also become a way of expressing something that’s come to be known as “virtue signalling.” A government that wants to look green sees logic in throwing money at such an obvious, on-brand symbol, or touting a 2035 EV mandate as evidence of ambition. But the result is an off-target policy – and a signal that is mostly noise.

 

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Can California Manage its Solar Boom?

California Duck Curve highlights midday solar oversupply and steep evening peak demand, stressing grid stability. Solutions include battery storage, demand response, diverse renewables like wind, geothermal, nuclear, and regional integration to reduce curtailment.

 

Key Points

A mismatch between midday solar surplus and evening demand spikes, straining the grid without storage and flexibility.

✅ Midday solar oversupply forces curtailment and wasted clean energy.

✅ Evening ramps require fast, fossil peaker plants to stabilize load.

✅ Batteries, demand response, regional trading flatten the curve.

 

California's remarkable success in adopting solar power, including a near-100% renewable milestone, has created a unique challenge: managing the infamous "duck curve." This distinctive curve illustrates a growing mismatch between solar electricity generation and the state's energy demands, creating potential problems for grid stability and ultimately threatening to slow California's progress in the fight against climate change.


The Shape of the Problem

The duck curve arises from a combination of high solar energy production during midday hours and surging energy demand in the late afternoon and evening when solar power declines. During peak solar hours, the grid often has an overabundance of electricity, and curtailments are increasing as a result, while as the sun sets, demand surges when people return home and businesses ramp up operations. California's energy grid operators must scramble to make up this difference, often relying on fast-acting but less environmentally friendly power sources.


The Consequences of the Duck Curve

The increasing severity of the duck curve has several potential consequences for California:

  • Grid Strain: The rapid ramp-up of power sources to meet evening demand puts significant strain on the electrical grid. This can lead to higher operational costs and potentially increase the risk of blackouts during peak demand times.
  • Curtailed Energy: To avoid overloading the grid, operators may sometimes have to curtail excess solar energy during midday, as rising curtailment reports indicate, essentially wasting clean electricity that could have been used to displace fossil fuel generation.
  • Obstacle to More Solar: The duck curve can make it harder to add new solar capacity, as seen in Alberta's solar expansion challenges, for fear of further destabilizing the grid and increasing the need for fossil fuel-based peaking plants.


Addressing the Challenge

California is actively seeking solutions to mitigate the duck curve, aligning with national decarbonization pathways that emphasize practicality. Potential strategies include:

  • Energy Storage: Deploying large-scale battery storage can help soak up excess solar electricity during the day and release it later when demand peaks, smoothing out the duck curve.
  • Demand Flexibility: Encouraging consumers to shift their energy use to off-peak hours through incentives and smart grid technologies can help reduce late-afternoon surges in demand.
  • Diverse Power Sources: While solar is crucial, a balanced mix of energy sources, including geothermal, wind, and nuclear, can improve grid stability and reduce reliance on rapid-response fossil fuel plants.
  • Regional Cooperation: Integrating California's grid with neighboring states can aid in balancing energy supply and demand across a wider geographical area.


The Ongoing Solar Debate

The duck curve has become a central point of debate about the future of California's energy landscape. While acknowledging the challenge, solar advocates argue for continued expansion, backed by measures like a bill to require solar on new buildings, emphasizing the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels. Grid operators and some utility companies call for a more cautious approach, emphasizing grid reliability and potential costs if the problem isn't effectively managed.


Balancing California's Needs and its Green Ambitions

Finding the right path forward is essential; it will determine whether California can continue to lead the way in solar energy adoption while ensuring a reliable and affordable electricity supply. Successfully navigating the duck curve will require innovation, collaboration, and a strong commitment to building a sustainable energy system, as wildfire smoke impacts on solar continue to challenge generation predictability.

 

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