Alberta shift from coal to cleaner energy


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Alberta Coal-to-Gas Transition will retire coal units, convert plants to natural gas, boost renewables, and affect electricity prices, with policy tools like a price cap and carbon tax shaping the power market.

 

Key Points

Shift retiring coal units and converting to natural gas and renewables, targeting coal elimination by 2030.

✅ TransAlta retires Sundance coal unit; more units convert to gas.

✅ Forward prices seen near $40 to low $50/MWh in 2018.

✅ 6.8-cent cap shields consumers; carbon tax backstops costs.

 

The turn of the calendar to 2018 saw TransAlta retire one of its coal power generating units at its Sundance plant west of Edmonton and mothball another as it begins the transition to cleaner sources of energy across Alberta.

The company will say goodbye to three more units over the next year and a half to prepare them for conversion to natural gas.

This is part of a fundamental shift in Alberta, which will see coal power retired ahead of schedule by 2030, replaced by a mix of natural gas and renewable sources.

“We’re going to see that transition continue right up from now until 2030, and likely beyond 2030 as wind generation starts to outpace coal and new technologies become available.”

Coal has long been the backbone of Alberta’s grid, currently providing nearly 40 per cent of the provinces power. Analysts believe removing it will come with a cost to consumers, according to a report on coal phase-out costs published recently.

“The open question over the next couple of years is whether they’re going to inch up gradually, or whether they’re going to inch up like they did in 2012 and 2013, by having periods of very high power prices.”

Albertans are currently paying historically low power prices, with generation costs last year averaging below $23/MWh, less than half of the average of the past 10 years.

A report released in mid-December by electricity consultant firm EDC Associates showed forward prices moving from the $40/MWh in the first three months of 2018, to the low $50/MWh range.

“The forwards tend to take several weeks to fully react to announcements, so its anticipated that prices will continue to gradually track upwards over the coming weeks,” the report reads.

The NDP government has taken steps to protect consumers against price surges. Last spring, a price cap of 6.8 cents/MWh was put in place until the spring of 2021, with any cost above that to be covered by carbon tax revenue.

 

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Russian Strikes Threaten Ukraine's Power Grid

Ukraine Power Grid Attacks intensify as missile and drone strikes hit substations and power plants, causing blackouts, humanitarian crises, strained hospitals, and emergency repairs, with winter energy shortages and civilian infrastructure damage worsening nationwide.

 

Key Points

Strikes on energy infrastructure causing blackouts, service disruption, and heightened humanitarian risk in winter.

✅ Missile and drone strikes cripple plants, substations, and lines

✅ Blackouts disrupt water, heating, hospitals, and critical services

✅ Emergency repairs, generators, and aid mitigate winter shortages

 

Ukraine's energy infrastructure remains a primary target in Russia's ongoing invasion, with a recent wave of missile strikes causing power outages in western regions and disrupting critical services across the country. These attacks have devastating humanitarian consequences, leaving millions of Ukrainians without heat, water, and electricity as winter approaches.


Systematic Targeting of Energy Infrastructure

Russia's strategy of deliberately targeting Ukraine's power grid marks a significant escalation, directly affecting the lives of civilians. Power plants, substations, and transmission lines have been hit with missiles and drones, with the latest strikes in late April causing blackouts in cities across Ukraine, including the capital, Kyiv, as the country fights to keep the lights on amid relentless bombardment.


Humanitarian Catastrophe Looms

The damage to Ukraine's electrical system hinders essential services like water supply, sewage treatment, and heating. Hospitals and other critical facilities struggle to operate without reliable power. With winter around the corner, the ongoing attacks threaten a humanitarian catastrophe even as authorities outline plans to keep the lights on this winter for vulnerable communities.


Ukrainian Resolve Remains Unbroken

Despite the devastation, Ukrainian engineers and workers race against time to repair damaged infrastructure and restore power as quickly as possible, while communities adopt new energy solutions to overcome blackouts to maintain essential services. The nation's energy workers have been hailed as heroes for their tireless efforts to keep the lights on amidst relentless attacks. Officials have urged civilians to reduce energy consumption whenever possible to alleviate strain on the fragile grid.


International Condemnation and Support

The systematic attacks on Ukraine's power grid have been widely condemned by the international community.  Western nations have accused Russia of war crimes, highlighting the deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure. Aid organizations and countries are coordinating efforts to provide emergency power supplies, including generators and transformers, to help Ukraine mitigate the immediate crisis, even as the U.S. ended support for grid restoration in a recent policy shift.


Implications Beyond Ukraine

The humanitarian crisis unfolding in Ukraine due to power grid attacks carries implications far beyond its borders. The disruption of energy supplies could lead to further instability in neighbouring countries dependent on Ukraine's power exports, although officials say electricity reserves are sufficient to prevent scheduled outages if attacks subside. Additionally, a surge in Ukrainian refugees fleeing the deteriorating conditions could put a strain on resources within the European Union.


War Crimes Allegations

International human rights organizations are documenting evidence of Russia's deliberate attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. Human Rights Watch (HRW) has stated that Russia's targeting of power stations could violate the laws of war and amount to war crimes. This documentation will be crucial for holding Russia accountable for its actions in the future.


Uncertain Future for Ukraine's Power Supply

The long-term consequences of Russia's sustained attacks on Ukraine's power grid remain uncertain. While Ukrainian workers demonstrate incredible resilience, the sheer scale of repeated damage may eventually overwhelm their ability to keep pace with repairs, and, as winter looms over the battlefront, electricity is civilization for frontline communities. Rebuilding destroyed infrastructure could take years and cost billions, a daunting task for a nation already ravaged by war.

 

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Most Energy Will Come From Fossil Fuels, Even In 2040

2040 Energy Outlook projects a shifting energy mix as renewables scale, EV adoption accelerates, and IEA forecasts plateauing oil demand alongside rising natural gas, highlighting policy, efficiency, and decarbonization trends that shape global consumption.

 

Key Points

A data-driven view of future energy mix, covering renewables, fossil fuels, EVs, oil demand, and policy impacts.

✅ Renewables reach 16-30% by 2040, higher with strong policy support.

✅ Fossil fuels remain dominant, with oil flat and natural gas rising.

✅ EV share surges, cutting oil use; efficiency curbs demand growth.

 

Which is more plausible: flying taxis, wind turbine arrays stretching miles into the ocean, and a solar roof on every house--or a scorched-earth, flooded post-Apocalyptic world? 

We have no way of peeking into the future, but we can certainly imagine it. There is plenty of information about where the world is headed and regardless of how reliable this information is—or isn’t—we never stop wondering. Will the energy world of 20 years from now be better or worse than the world we live in now? 

The answer may very well lie in the observable trends.


A Growing Population

The global population is growing, and it will continue to grow in the next two decades. This will drive a steady growth in energy demand, at about 1 percent per year, according to the International Energy Agency.

This modest rate of growth is good news for all who are concerned about the future of the planet. Parts of the world are trying to reduce their energy consumption, and this should have a positive effect on the carbon footprint of humanity. The energy thirst of most parts of the world will continue growing, however, hence the overall growth.

The world’s population is currently growing at a rate of a little over 1 percent annually. This rate of growth has been slowing since its peak in the 1960s and forecasts suggest that it will continue to slow. Growth in energy demand, on the other hand, may at some point stop moving in tune with population growth trends as affluence in some parts of the world grows. The richer people get, the more energy they need. So, to the big question: where will this energy come from?


The Rise of Renewables

For all the headline space they have been claiming, it may come as a disappointing surprise to many that renewable energy, excluding hydropower, to date accounts for just 14 percent of the global primary energy mix. 

Certainly, adoption of solar and wind energy has been growing in leaps and bounds, with their global share doubling in five years in many markets, but unless governments around the world commit a lot more money and effort to renewable energy, by 2040, solar and wind’s share in the energy mix will still only rise to about 16 to 17 percent. That’s according to the only comprehensive report on the future of energy that collates data from all the leading energy authorities in the world, by non-profit Resources for the Future.

The growth in renewables adoption, however, would be a lot more impressive if governments do make serious commitments. Under that scenario, the share of renewables will double to over 30 percent by 2040, echoing milestones like over 30% of global electricity reached recently: that’s the median rate of all authoritative forecasts. Amongst them, the adoption rates of renewables vary between 15 percent and 61 percent by 2040.

Even the most bullish of the forecasts on renewables is still far below the 100-percent renewable future many would like to fantasize about, although BNEF’s 50% by 2050 outlook points to what could be possible in the power sector. 

But in 2040, most of the world’s energy will still come from fossil fuels.


EV Energy

Here, forecasters are more optimistic. Again, there is a wide variation between forecasts, but in each and every one of them the share of electric vehicles on the world’s roads in 2040 is a lot higher than the meagre 1 percent of the global car fleet EVs constitute today.
Related: Gas Prices Languish As Storage Falls To Near-Record Lows

Government policy will be the key, as U.S. progress toward 30% wind and solar shows how policy steers the power mix that EVs ultimately depend on. Bans of internal combustion engines will go a long way toward boosting EV adoption, which is why some forecasters expect electric cars to come to account for more than 50 percent of cars on the road in 2040. Others, however, are more guarded in their forecasts, seeing their share of the global fleet at between 16 percent and a little over 40 percent.

Many pin their hopes for a less emission-intensive future on electric cars. Indeed, as the number of EVs rises, they displace ICE vehicles and, respectively, the emission-causing oil that fuels for ICE cars are made from.  It should be a no brainer that the more EVs we drive, the less emissions we produce. Unfortunately, this is not necessarily the case: China is the world’s biggest EV market, and its solar PV expansion has been rapid, it has the most EVs—including passenger cars and buses—but it is also one of the biggest emitters.

Still, by 2040, if the more optimistic forecasts come true, the world will be consuming less oil than it is consuming now: anywhere from 1.2 million bpd to 20 million bpd less, the latter case envisaging an all-electric global fleet in 2040. 


This Ain’t Your Daddy’s Oil

No, it ain’t. It’s your grandchildren’s oil, for good or for bad. The vision of an oil-free world where renewable power is both abundant and cheap enough to replace all the ways in which crude oil and natural gas are used will in 2040 still be just that--a vision, with practical U.S. grid constraints underscoring the challenges. Even the most optimistic energy scenarios for two decades from now see them as the dominant source of energy, with forecasts ranging between 60 percent and 79 percent. While these extremes are both below the over-80 percent share fossil fuels have in the world’s energy mix, they are well above 50 percent, and in the U.S. renewables are projected to reach about one-fourth of electricity soon, even as fossil fuels remain foundational.

Still, there is good news. Fuel efficiency alone will reduce oil demand significantly by 2040. In fact, according to the IEA, demand will plateau at a little over 100 million bpd by the mid-2030s. Combined with the influx of EVs many expect, the world of 20 years from now may indeed be consuming a lot less oil than the world of today. It will, however, likely consume a lot more natural gas. There is simply no way around fossil fuels, not yet. Unless a miracle of politics happens (complete with a ripple effect that will cost millions of people their jobs) in 2040 we will be as dependent on oil and gas as we are but we will hopefully breathe cleaner air.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

 

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Summerland solar power project will provide electricity

Summerland Solar+Storage Project brings renewable energy to a municipal utility with photovoltaic panels and battery storage, generating 1,200 megawatts from 3,200 panels on Cartwright Mountain to boost grid resilience and local clean power.

 

Key Points

A municipal solar PV and battery system enabling Summerland Power to self-generate electricity on Cartwright Mountain.

✅ 3,200 panels, 20-year batteries, 35-year panel lifespan

✅ Estimated $7M cost, $6M in grants, utility reserve funding

✅ Site near grid lines; 2-year timeline with 18-month lead

 

A proposed solar energy project, to be constructed on municipally-owned property on Cartwright Mountain, will allow Summerland Power to produce some of its own electricity, similar to how Summerside's wind power supplies a large share locally.

On Monday evening, municipal staff described the Solar+Storage project, aligning with insights from renewable power developers that combining resources yields better projects.

The project will include around 3,200 solar panels and storage batteries, giving Summerland Power the ability to generate 1,200 megawatts of electrical power.

This is the amount of energy used by 100 homes over the course of a year.

The solar panels have an estimated life expectancy of 35 years, while the batteries have a life expectancy of 20 years.

“It’s a really big step for a small utility like ours,” said Tami Rothery, sustainability/alternative energy coordinator for Summerland. “We’re looking forward to moving towards a bright, sunny energy future.”

She said the price of solar panels has been dropping, with lower-cost solar contracts reported in Alberta, and the quality and efficiency of the panels has increased in recent years.

The total cost of the project is around $7 million, with $6 million to come from grant funding and the remainder to come from the municipality’s electrical utility reserve fund, while policy changes such as Nova Scotia's solar charge delay illustrate evolving market conditions.

The site, a former public works yard and storage area, was selected from 108 parcels of land considered by the municipality.

She said the site, vacant since the 1970s, is close to main electrical lines and will not be highly visible once the panels are in place, much like unobtrusive rooftop solar arrays in urban settings.

Access to the site is restricted, resulting in natural security to the solar installation.

Jeremy Storvold, general manager of Summerland’s electrical utility, said the site is 2.5 kilometres from the Prairie Valley electrical substation and close to the existing public works yard.

However, some in the audience on Monday questioned the location of the proposed solar installation, suggesting the site would be better suited for affordable housing in the community.

The timeline for the project calls for roughly two years before the work will be completed, since there is an 18-month lead time in order to receive good quality solar panels, reflecting the surge in Alberta's solar growth that is straining supply chains.

 

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New York and New England Need More Clean Energy. Is Hydropower From Canada the Best Way to Get it?

Canadian Hydropower Transmission delivers HVDC clean energy via New England Clean Energy Connect and Champlain Hudson Power Express, linking HydroQuébec to Maine and New York grids for renewable energy, decarbonization, and lower wholesale electricity rates.

 

Key Points

HVDC delivery of HydroQuébec power to New England and New York via NECEC and CHPE, cutting emissions and costs.

✅ 1,200 MW via NECEC; 1,000 MW via CHPE.

✅ HVDC routes: 145-mile NECEC and 333-mile CHPE.

✅ Debates: land impacts, climate justice, wholesale rates.

 

As the sole residents of unorganized territory T5 R7 deep within Maine's North Woods, Duane Hanson and his wife, Sally Kwan, have watched the land around them—known for its natural beauty, diverse wildlife and recreational fishing—transformed by decades of development. 

But what troubles them most is what could happen in the next few months. State and corporate officials are pushing for construction of a 53-mile-long power line corridor cutting right through the woods and abutting the wild lands surrounding Hanson's property. 

If its proponents succeed, Hanson fears the corridor may represent the beginning of the end of his ability to live "off the land" away from the noise of technology-obsessed modern society. Soon, that noise may be in his backyard. 

"I moved here to be in the pristine wilderness," said Hanson.
 
With his life in what he considers the last "wild" place left on the East Coast on the line, the stakes have never felt higher to Hanson—and many across New England, as well.

The corridor is part of the New England Clean Energy Connect, one of two major and highly controversial transmission line projects meant to deliver Canadian hydropower from the government-owned utility HydroQuébec, in a province that has closed the door on nuclear power, to New England electricity consumers. 

As New England states rush to green their electric grids and combat the accelerating climate crisis, the simultaneous push from Canada to expand the market for hydroelectric power from its vast water resources, including Manitoba's clean energy, has offered these states a critical lifeline at just the right moment. 

The other big hydropower transmission line project will deliver 1,000 megawatts of power, or enough to serve approximately one million residential customers, to the New York City metropolitan area, which includes the city, Long Island, and parts of the Hudson Valley, New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania. 

The 333-mile-long Champlain Hudson Power Express project will consist of two high voltage direct current cables running underground and underwater from Canada, beneath Lake Champlain and the Hudson River, to Astoria, Queens. 

There, the Champlain Hudson project will interconnect to a sector of the New York electricity grid where city and corporate officials say the hydropower supplied can help reduce the fossil fuels that currently comprise significantly more of the base load than in other parts of the state. Though New York has yet to finalize a contract with HydroQuébec over its hydropower purchase, developers plan to start construction on the $2.2 billion project in 2021 and say it will be operational in 2025. 

The New England project consists of 145 miles of new HVDC transmission line that will run largely above ground from the Canadian border, through Maine to Massachusetts. The $1 billion project, funded by Massachusetts electricity consumers, is expected to deliver 1,200 megawatts of clean energy to the New England energy grid, becoming the region's largest clean energy source. 

Central Maine Power, which will construct the Maine transmission corridor, says the project will decrease wholesale electric rates and create thousands of jobs. Company officials expect to receive all necessary permits and begin construction by the year's end, with the project completed and in service by 2020. 

With only months until developers start making both projects on-the-ground realities, they have seized public attention within, and beyond, their regions. 

Hanson is one among many concerned New England and New York residents who've joined the ranks of environmental activists in a contentious battle with public and corporate officials over the place of Canadian hydropower in their states' clean energy futures. 

Officials and transmission line proponents say importing Canadian hydropower offers an immediate and feasible way to help decarbonize electricity portfolios in New York and New England and to address existing transmission constraints that limit cross-border flows today, supporting their broader efforts to combat climate change. 

But some environmental activists say hydropower has a significant carbon footprint of its own. They fear the projects will make states look "greener" at the expense of the local environment, Indigenous communities, and ultimately, the climate. 

"We're talking about the most environmentally and economically just pathway" to decarbonization, said Annel Hernandez, associate director of the NYC Environmental Justice Alliance. "Canadian hydro is not going to provide that." 

To that end, environmental groups opposing Canadian hydropower say New York and New England should seize the moment to expedite local development of wind and solar power. 

Paul Gallay, president of the nonprofit environmental organization Riverkeeper—which withdrew its initial support for the Champlain Hudson Power Express last November— believes New York has the capacity to develop enough in-state renewable energy sources to meet its clean energy goals, without the new transmission line. 

Yet New York City's analysis shows clearly that Canadian hydropower is critical for its clean energy strategy, said Dan Zarrilli, director of OneNYC and New York City's chief climate policy adviser. 

"We need every bit of clean energy we can get our hands on," he said, to meet the city's goal of carbon neutrality by 2050 and help achieve the state's clean energy mandates. 

Removing Canadian hydropower from the equation, said Zarilli, would commit the city to the "unacceptable outcome" of burning more gas. The city's marginalized communities would likely suffer most from the resulting air pollution and associated health impacts. 

While the two camps debate Canadian hydropower's carbon footprint and what climate justice requires, this much is clear: When it comes to pursuing a zero-carbon future, there are no easy answers. 

Hydropower's Carbon Footprint
Many people take for granted that because hydropower production doesn't involve burning fossil fuels, it's a carbon-neutral endeavor. But that's not always the case, depending on where hydropower is sourced. 

Large-scale hydropower projects often involve the creation of hydroelectric dams and reservoirs, and, in some cases, repowering existing dams to generate clean electricity. The release and flow of water from the reservoir through the dam provides the energy necessary to generate hydropower, which long-distance power lines, or transmission lines, carry to its intended destination—in this case, New England and New York. 

The initial process of flooding land to create a hydroelectric reservoir can have a sizable carbon footprint, especially in heavily vegetated areas. It causes the vegetation and soil underwater to decompose, releasing carbon dioxide and methane—a greenhouse gas 84 times more potent over a 20-year period than carbon dioxide. 

Hydropower accounts for 60 percent of Canada's electricity generation, and HydroQuébec has planned to increase capacity to 37,000 MW in 2021, with the nation second only to China in the percentage of the world's total hydroelectricity it generates. By contrast, hydropower only accounts for seven percent of U.S. utility-scale electricity generation, making it a foreign concept to many Americans. 

As New England works to introduce substantial amounts of Canadian hydropower to its electricity grid, hydropower proponents are promoting it as a prime source for clean electricity, and new NB Power agreements are expanding regional transfers within Canada as well. 

Last fall, Central Maine Power formed its own political action committee, Clean Energy Matters, to advance the New England hydropower project. Together with HydroQuébec, the Maine utility has spent nearly $17 million campaigning for the project this year. 

 

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DP Energy Sells 325MW Solar Park to Medicine Hat

Saamis Solar Park advances Medicine Hat's renewable energy strategy, as DP Energy secures AUC approval for North America's largest urban solar, repurposing contaminated land; capacity phased from 325 MW toward an initial 75 MW.

 

Key Points

A 325 MW solar project in Medicine Hat, Alberta, repurposing contaminated land; phased to 75 MW under city ownership.

✅ City acquisition scales capacity to 75 MW in phased build

✅ AUC approval enables construction and grid integration

✅ Reuses phosphogypsum-impacted land near fertilizer plant

 

DP Energy, an Irish renewable energy developer, has finalized the sale of the Saamis Solar Park—a 325 megawatt (MW) solar project—to the City of Medicine Hat in Alberta, Canada. This transaction marks the development of North America's largest urban solar initiative, while mirroring other Canadian clean-energy deals such as Canadian Solar project sales that signal market depth.

Project Development and Approval

DP Energy secured development rights for the Saamis Solar Park in 2017 and obtained a development permit in 2021. In 2024, the Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC) granted approval for construction and operation, reflecting Alberta's solar growth trends in recent years, paving the way for the project's advancement.

Strategic Acquisition by Medicine Hat

The City of Medicine Hat's acquisition of the Saamis Solar Park aligns with its commitment to enhancing renewable energy infrastructure. Initially, the project was slated for a 325 MW capacity, which would significantly bolster the city's energy supply. However, the city has proposed scaling the project to a 75 MW capacity, focusing on a phased development approach, and doing so amid challenges with solar expansion in Alberta that influence siting and timing. This adjustment aims to align the project's scale with the city's current energy needs and strategic objectives.

Utilization of Contaminated Land

An innovative aspect of the Saamis Solar Park is its location on a 1,600-acre site previously affected by industrial activity. The land, near Medicine Hat's fertilizer plant, was previously compromised by phosphogypsum—a byproduct of fertilizer production. DP Energy's decision to develop the solar park on this site exemplifies a productive reuse of contaminated land, transforming it into a source of clean energy.

Benefits to Medicine Hat

The development of the Saamis Solar Park is poised to deliver multiple benefits to Medicine Hat:

  • Energy Supply Enhancement: The project will augment the city's energy grid, much like municipal solar projects that provide local power, providing a substantial portion of its electricity needs.

  • Economic Advantages: The city anticipates financial savings by reducing carbon tax liabilities, as lower-cost solar contracts have shown competitiveness, through the generation of renewable energy.

  • Environmental Impact: By investing in renewable energy, Medicine Hat aims to reduce its carbon footprint and contribute to global sustainability efforts.

DP Energy's Ongoing Commitment

Despite the sale, DP Energy maintains a strong presence in Canada, where Indigenous-led generation is expanding, with a diverse portfolio of renewable energy projects, including solar, onshore wind, storage, and offshore wind initiatives. The company continues to focus on sustainable development practices, striving to minimize environmental impact while maximizing energy production efficiency.

The transfer of the Saamis Solar Park to the City of Medicine Hat represents a significant milestone in renewable energy development. It showcases effective land reutilization, strategic urban planning, and a shared commitment to sustainable energy solutions, aligning with federal green electricity procurement that reinforces market demand. This project not only enhances the city's energy infrastructure but also sets a precedent for integrating large-scale renewable energy projects within urban environments.

 

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It's CHEAP but not necessarily easy: Crosbie introduces PCs' Newfoundland electricity rate reduction strategy

Crosbie Hydro Energy Action Plan outlines rate mitigation for Muskrat Falls, leveraging Nalcor oil revenues, export sales, Holyrood savings, and potential Hydro-Quebec taxation to keep Newfoundland and Labrador electricity rates near 14.67 cents/kWh.

 

Key Points

PC plan to cap post-Muskrat rates by using Nalcor revenues, exports, and savings, with optional Accord funds.

✅ $575.4M yearly to hold rates near 14.67 cents/kWh

✅ Sources: Nalcor oil $231M, Holyrood $150M, rates/dividends $123.4M

✅ Options: export sales, restructuring, Atlantic Accord, HQ tax

 

Newfoundland and Labrador PC Leader Ches Crosbie says Muskrat Falls won't drive up electricity rates, a goal consistent with an agreement to shield ratepayers from cost overruns, if he's elected premier.

According to Crosbie, who presented the party's Crosbie Hydro Energy Action Plan — acronym CHEAP — at a press conference Monday, $575.4 million is needed per year in order to keep rates from ballooning past 14.67 cents per kilowatt hour.

Here's where he thinks the money could come from:

  • Hydro rates and dividends — $123.4 million
  • Export sales — $40.1 million
  • Nalcor restructuring — $30 million
  • Holyrood savings — $150  million
  • Nalcor oil revenue — $231 million

The oil money, Crosbie said, isn't going into government coffers but being invested into the offshore which, he said, is a good place for it.

"But the plan from the beginning around Muskrat Falls was that if there was need for it — for mitigation for rates — that those revenues and operating cash flows from Nalcor oil and gas would be available to be recycled into rate mitigation, as reflected in a recent financial update on the pandemic's impact. and that's what we're going to have to do," he said.

According to Crosbie, his numbers come from the preliminary stage of the Public Utilities Board process, even as rate mitigation talks have lacked public details.

This is a recent aerial view of the Muskrat Falls project in central Labrador. The project is more than 90 per cent complete, with first power forecast for late 2019, alongside Ottawa's $5.2B support for the project. (Nalcor)

"I'm telling you this is the best information available to anyone outside of government," he said. "We're working on what we can."

The PUB estimated Nalcor restructuring could save between $10 million and $15 million, according to Crosbie, but he figures there's "enough duplication and overpayment involved in the way things are now set up that we can find $30 million there."

Currently, provincial ratepayers pay about 12 cents per kilowatt hour as electricity users have started paying for Muskrat Falls costs.

Crosbie's $575.4-million figure would put rates at 14.67 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2021, where his plan pledges to keep them.

A recent Public Utilities Board Report says there's a potential $10 million to $15 million in savings from Nalcor, but Crosbie says he can find $30 million. (CBC)

"The promise is that Muskrat Falls, when it comes online — comes in service — will not increase your rates. Between now and when that happens there are rate increases already in the pipeline up to that level of [14.67 cents per kilowatt-hour] … so that is the baseline target rate at which rates will be kept.

"In other words, Muskrat will not drive up prices for electricity to consumers beyond that point."

In addition to those savings, Crosbie's plan outlined two further steps.

"We think it could be done out of the resources that I've just identified now, but if there's a problem with that, and as a temporary measure, we can use a modest amount of the Atlantic Accord review, fiscal review, revenues," he said.

 

Plan 'nothing new'

Premier Dwight Ball slammed the plan at the House of Assembly on Monday, saying it lacked insight.

"It was a copy and paste exercise," he told reporters. "There's nothing new in that plan. Not at all."

"We're not leaving any stone unturned of where the opportunity would be to actually generate revenue," he said.  "We are genuinely concerned about rate mitigation and we've got to get a plan in place."

 

Potential to tax Hydro-Québec

Crosbie also said there's potential to tax Hydro-Québec.

According to Crosbie, tax exemptions that expired in 2016 allow the province to tax exports from the Upper Churchill, which, he said, could result in "hundreds of millions or billions" in revenue.

"It's not my philosophy to immediately go and do that because that would generate litigation — who needs more of that? — but we do need to let Quebec know that we're very aware of that, and aware of that opportunity, and invite them to come talk about a whole host of issues," Crosbie said.

Crosbie said the tax would also have to be applied to domestic consumption.

"But so massive is the potential revenue from the Upper Churchill export that there would be ways to mitigate that and negate the effect of that on consumers in the province."

Crosbie said with the Atlantic Accord revenue, he could still present a balanced budget by 2022.

 

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